India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 06:06:43 PM
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Author Topic: India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec  (Read 28357 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: March 19, 2022, 07:13:08 PM »

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2022, 07:43:05 PM »

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

I was talking long-term. Whatever opposition force is strong enough to actually defeat BJP, is also set to retain a lot of long-term strength over the coming decades (unless they mess up massively a la Janata Dal in 1977...).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2022, 07:14:22 AM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246937.msg5826704#msg5826704

is a link to a series of writeups I wrote back in 2017 on a history of Gujarat elections up until 2014.

Most likely I will write up something similar for HP and J&K in the coming weeks.
Ah nice!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2022, 07:06:48 PM »

Bihar is at 10%, not really surprising.
Why is Meghalaya so high?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2022, 06:51:55 AM »

So in the end what was the whole point of this BJP's work to ally with the SHS rebel Eknath Shinde only for him to become CM.  If BJP was ok with not having the CM and giving it to SHS they could have just supported SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray for CM back in 2019 and the BJP-SHS alliance would have continued fine.

It seems  Eknath Shinde must have had a condition of leading the SHS rebellion on the condition he becomes CM which makes sense from his point of view.  The question is why did BJP agree to it.  It seems BJP is acting out of revenge on Uddhav Thackeray for betraying them in 2019.  It is a poor idea for a political party or any leader to act out of anger.
And that in turn could be seen as being driven by the BJP betraying the promises they made to Thackeray.
Who wins out here? Shiv Sena, because there won't be an election in which SHS is against BJP? Or is it the BJP, because they are now back in power, seemingly? Or is it Shiv Sena, because they managed to bamdoozle the BJP?
So much going on here...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2022, 08:23:05 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rajasthan-congress-crisis-live-updates-cm-gehlot-delhi-president-election-sonia-gandhi-digvijay-singh-8179413/

"Congress President polls LIVE Updates: Ashok Gehlot won’t contest elections; Sonia Gandhi to decide on Rajasthan CM in a day or two, says KC Venugopal"

INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot will not contest in INC Prez elections

So it seems what took place was

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: We have an offer you cannot refuse.  Please give up your seat where you have power over your rival and take a position where you have responsibility but no power.

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: Yes Sir

Ashok Gehlot arranges his MLA to rebel on news of him stepping down while he disappears.

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Please control your MLAs

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: They gone rouge.  I cannot control them !!!

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Fine, let's cancel that offer we made you for you to take a role where you have responsibility but no power.
As thus we have the cumulative outcome of various power plays onto themselves.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2022, 08:40:02 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.

Could it happen that the BJP is in for a terrible 2030s, due to this management strategy?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2022, 09:01:19 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.

Could it happen that the BJP is in for a terrible 2030s, due to this management strategy?

That is what I am alluding to.  BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology does help to keep it organized even after Modi moves on would be a plus but back in the 1980s, the INC had the India Nationalist card which it then lost.  I guess the same could be true for BJP.  What is powerful about the Modi brand is that it is not a dynasty that projects the image of a selfless Sant that works for the wellbeing of India and not his family    The downside is that it is harder to transfer that image onto anyone else.  Amit Shah is an excellent strategist but I am not sure he will have the same connection with the Hindi belt masses that Modi has.  Yeah, if things go wrong in the economy or some scandal that undermines the BJP brand this entire model might fall apart a decade after Modi moves on.
I never thought of the INC as having the "Jai Hind" card in the 1980s, but that makes sense.
Perhaps Modi becomes a LDP-style power behind the throne? But that would be a rough transition from Modi's very presidential-style leadership of the country as PM...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2022, 06:38:51 AM »

My understanding is that the vast majority of these cases are when the husband is drunk.  So this map is also a proxy map of male alcoholism.  This is why prohibition plays very well with Indian women voters.  Bihar's Nitish Kumar really cracked down on alcohol sales back in 2013 and it paid dividends for JD(U) in 2015 and 2020.


Interesting to see all the variance in Northeast India there.
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