India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republic poll for Punjab

         Seat    Vote share
AAP      54         37.8%
INC      46         35.1%
SAD+   15         15.8%
BJP+      2           5.7%

Hung assembly.  On these numbers, I think AAP should get a majority.

How is the BJP doing compared to last time

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does it look like the BJP will get a majority in UP at the moment

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is hard to see how the BJP will lose the 2024 LS elections.  In fact, if BJP continues to ally with AIADMK in TN there is a chance that NDA might gain seats relative to 2024 losing some seats in WB, Karanataka, and Maharastra but gaining in TN and Odisha while keeping its dominant position in Northern India.

Would you say the BJP is the most dominant party since the early 1970s INC at this point or not yet.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Households in India own refrigerators.  Gives a sense of the relative strength of the mass consumer economy in each state.  The high numbers in Kerala, TN, and Mizoram are more of an indication of the income distribution.  High numbers in the North like HP, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttarakhand indicate the high income and more normal income distribution there.  The richest state Maharastra has a surprisingly low number indicating something about its income distribution.  Similar story for Gujarat.

Also, there is a clear negative correlation with Hindi-speaking areas.  Meaning if you speak Hindi you are not likely to have a refrigerator at home.

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

ah didnt see that , but those numbers seem very low from what I would have thought.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

ah didnt see that , but those numbers seem very low from what I would have thought.

I think the urban-rural gap is large so anyone that spent more time in urban India would get a false impression of the overall number.  In rural areas, I also suspect it has a lot to do with power shortages.  What is the point of getting a refrigerator if power is cut for 4 hours a day and the food goes bad anyway.

makes sense as when I visit India, I basically visit urban areas there and not rural

[OSR stands with Israel]

I was thinking of this analogy lately but tell me if you think this accurate. In some ways politics in India someway mirror the South here.

Both places were very culturally conservative along with very rural places and despite that were completely dominated by the more left leaning party for decades and decades in large parts due to historical affinity for that party. In both cases the right leaning parties first found strength with middle class voters in urban areas and then used that as a springboard to gain more and more influence.

Vajpayee victories in many ways seem like the early mid 1980s south were you see a pre dominantly urban party gain power through strength in urban/suburban areas but are unable to hold power for long which leads to a period of one final period of power for the historically dominant party .

1994 also seems like 2014 where Republicans and BJP make huge inroads in rural areas and pretty much finally supplant the Democrats/Congress as the dominant party. Then despite holding power both the GOP/BJP make further gains for years on end as they are able to start to make permanent inroads with voters in rural areas and regions which were once hostile territory for the party .



So it could be any left party that takes party in India now will probably have to do it through making massive inroads in Urban areas as the old INC coalition seems dead

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?

Oh I agree that they had some positive contributions as well but so did the British Raj and yes I happen to love Gulab Jamun and Samosas but I would say the debate more centers around : Were the Mughals Indian or were they a Colonial Power" and I would go towards saying they were a Colonial Power.

I would disagree with efforts to wipe them from history books though as even if they were colonial powers they are still part of your history.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause

[OSR stands with Israel]

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause

I think it is 100% certain INC will lose Rajasthan in 2023 and while in theory, it should hold Chhattisgarh in reality it is better than 50/50 it will lose Chhattisgarh due to INC infighting there.   As for impact, it will have to be considered with possible INC gains.  There is some chance that INC can flip HP later this year and have a credible performance in Gujarat like in 2017.  INC could also flip Karnataka in early 2023 and outperform in Tripura.  As for the late 2023 elections, INC could also flip MP.  I think if INC outperforms in those elections then the losses of  Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will not be a big deal.  If not then whoever is INC Prez will have to be out and the decline of INC could become irreversible with no real chance of recovery even after Modi moves on.

Hmm interesting, so it does seem like 2023 is a make or break year for the INC and it seems like they have to make gains elsewhere as well to have a chance of recovery in the future. It does seem like the AAP will replace the INC at some point this decade at this point and anecdotally from what I have heard from Indian politics discussion among family and family friends, they seem to think that will happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Campaigning in Gujarat Rahul Gandhi promises $5K for the families of anyone that died of COVID-19 and free electricity for farmers as well as free electricity for 300 units of electricity for non-farmers if INC comes to power.  Look for the BJP to match this in some way.

The main problem here is Rahul Gandhi is writing political checks when he has no formal leadership role in INC.  If he is going to run around doing this he should get run for INC Prez and let the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections results be the make or break on whether the Gandhi clan should continue to lead INC.

Well isn't he still the main face of the Congress and the person who people associate with the Congress brand? Like if you asked some random person who the leaders of the Congress were, then they'd reply Rahul and Sonia Gandhi.

Agreed.  But that is the core of my complaint.  If Rahul Gandhi makes the call then he should just become INC Prez and accept credit or blame for the results.  He is trying to set it up as heads I win tails you lose by avoiding accountability for any setbacks.

I even doubt Indians will go for a repeat of 2004 and 2009 where INC put up a politician who was not from the Gandhi Family as their PM candidate but having the Gandhi Family controlling things behind the scenes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How Big is this news:

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/punjab-former-chief-minister-amarinder-singh-to-join-bjp-next-week-432358?utm_source=vuukle&utm_medium=talk_of_town

[OSR stands with Israel]

I am surprised how low it is in Gujarat

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are there any sites that have detailed Indian Election maps(Both State and Federal elections)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Asianet News Network poll for Gujarat assembly elections

BJP       138     48%
INC        33      31%
AAP        10      16%

It seems part of the 2017 INC vote base is going over to AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote and leading to a BJP landslide where the BJP vote was left intact from 2017.  The seat distribution seems to indicate the INC->AAP move is uneven with large INC->AAP shifts in urban areas and a lot less in rural areas.

It does seem like many of the Urban Rural trends that have taken place in the west are starting to take place in India as well. Now Urban areas are still to the right of rural areas but the gap between them is much smaller than it used to be and by the end of the decade rurals might be to the right of urban areas too

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/gujarat-election-results-2022-live-updates-bjp-aap-congress-arvind-kejriwal-gujarat-assembly-election-result/liveblog/96067992.cms

Times of India says BJP is up in 156. If those results hold it would be a massive massive landslide

[OSR stands with Israel]

BJP vote share in Gujarat is a shock ...

Extremely stunning given how much it shatters their previous record of 127. Like how does a party gain so much after being in power for so long and after years in power at a national level too especially given the fundamentals right now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The BJP Gujarat landslide was based on the Modi vote.  Many pollsters say that many voters, including BJP voters, cannot even name the BJP CM Bhupendrabhai Patel.  They just say they are voting for Modi.

Btw when I was in Gujarat last month, I saw photos of Modi literally everywhere along with Amit Shah . Even on businesses and rickshaws

[OSR stands with Israel]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

I heard that in HP the INC distanced itself more from the Gandhi family than in other states

[OSR stands with Israel]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

I heard that in HP the INC distanced itself more from the Gandhi family than in other states

Correct.  HP shows that INC can win without Gandhi clan.  I always think should move toward a franchise model where the Gandhi clan keeps the party together and gives you a ready made brand and ballot access for up-and-coming political talent.  But you get the votes yourself and do not rely on the Gandhi clan which does not work anyway.

Fundamentally I think two things are true :

1. The AAP is no where near strong enough to replace the INC so the INC still remains the best option for left of center voters in terms of ability to take power

2. As long as the Gandhi family have the power they do over the INC , they will keep losing