India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

The 3 independent winners in HP are all BJP rebels

a) 1 is a BJP rebel that won in 2017 as a BJP rebel and wanted to run as BJP this time but was turned down.  He ran as an independent and won

b) 1 was the 2017 BJP candidate and lost.  He wanted the BJP nomination this time and was rejected.  He ran as an independent and won

c) 1 is wanted the BJP nomination and rejected.  He ran as independent and won

It seems the large number of BJP incumbents that were dropped but ran anyway all lost but took down the BJP in a bunch of them.

[jaichind]

ECI results

Vote shares are now mostly stabilized as we close in on the final phases of the count.

Gujarat       

BJP           156    52.5%
INC-NCP     17     27.6%
AAP             5      12.9%
SP               1       0.3%
Ind.             3

HP

INC          39     43.9%
BJP          26      43.0%
AAP           0        1.1%
Ind            3

[jaichind]

Axis My India wins again.  They made the call for a larger than expected BJP landslide in Gujarat and they called for HP for INC when most other exit polls had a narrow BJP lead.  Their main mistake was calling at 20% vote share for AAP in Gujarat which they did walk back the next day.   

[Continential]

Also, Isudan Gadhvi (the AAP candidate for CM) lost the seat he was running for.

[jaichind]

ECI results

INC gains a seat in HP.  BJP has been gaining seats in the last couple of hours in Gujarat while INC gained a couple of seats in HP in the last couple of hours.  Fits the rule that the winning party tends to gain seats later in the count.

Gujarat       

BJP           156    52.5%
INC-NCP     17     27.6%
AAP             5      12.9%
SP               1       0.3%
Ind.             3                  (2 BJP rebels and 1 INC rebel which is likely to join BJP anyway)

HP

INC          40     43.9%
BJP          25      43.0%
AAP           0        1.1%
Ind            3                    (all 3 are BJP rebels)

[jaichind]

In retrospect, the INC strategy in Gujarat was flawed and executed poorly.

The basic INC idea is to try to localize the election since a Modi vs Rahul Gandhi election would mean an easy BJP win.  So INC wanted to try to turn it into 182 local races where economic concerns would be the main issue.  It is not a poor idea but the lack of an overall message/leader did lead to the lower turnout of the anti-BJP vote.  Furthermore, the average net worth of the average INC candidate was actually higher than the average BJP candidate which made it hard to win on economic populism and against over-inflation and unemployment. 

The old INC of the 1950s-1980s was a party of local elites plus sweeping socially marginalized groups (Dalits + Muslims) (sort of what the USA Democratic party is turning into).  So the way the INC always fights a race that is based on local issues is to nominate a local elite which it turns out is a poor proxy for a message of economic populism.  It seems the AAP got the economic populist protest vote instead while the lack of an overall message/face means the traditional pro-INC anti-BJP turned out at lower rates.

[jaichind]

I am surprised how HP turned out differently from Uttarakhand earlier this year.  Both were BJP-ruled states facing heavy anti-incumbency due to clear governance issues facing a poorly organized INC.  In both states, APP was making a lot of noises but it was clear that it was just a bluff.

But BJP won re-election in Uttarakhand while losing HP.

It seems the differences are
a) Uttarakhand had its share of BJP rebels but it seems in HP it was worse
b) Uttarakhand had a higher number of Upper castes voters that will vote for Modi even if the local BJP government is not viewed in a positive light
c) Uttarakhand had a few areas which had a larger number of Muslims (in the South) so the Muslim "threat" as viewed by the typical pro-BJP voter is bigger in Uttarakhand than HP.

[jaichind]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

[OSR stands with Israel]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

I heard that in HP the INC distanced itself more from the Gandhi family than in other states

[jaichind]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

I heard that in HP the INC distanced itself more from the Gandhi family than in other states

Correct.  HP shows that INC can win without Gandhi clan.  I always think should move toward a franchise model where the Gandhi clan keeps the party together and gives you a ready made brand and ballot access for up-and-coming political talent.  But you get the votes yourself and do not rely on the Gandhi clan which does not work anyway.

[OSR stands with Israel]

HP

INC has demanded recounting on 3 seats won by BJP and BJP has demanded recounting on 2 seats won by INC.

I heard that in HP the INC distanced itself more from the Gandhi family than in other states

Correct.  HP shows that INC can win without Gandhi clan.  I always think should move toward a franchise model where the Gandhi clan keeps the party together and gives you a ready made brand and ballot access for up-and-coming political talent.  But you get the votes yourself and do not rely on the Gandhi clan which does not work anyway.

Fundamentally I think two things are true :

1. The AAP is no where near strong enough to replace the INC so the INC still remains the best option for left of center voters in terms of ability to take power

2. As long as the Gandhi family have the power they do over the INC , they will keep losing

[jaichind]

The election also shows the limit of Modi's ability to get votes outside of Gujarat if he was not on the top of the ticket.  BJP ran in HP and Delhi MCD also in the name of Modi and they lost.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/himachal-results-2022-congress-jittery-gathers-flock-to-fight-poaching-after-likely-win-3588257

"Congress Drops 'Fly MLAs To Chhattisgarh' Plan After Himachal Win. Meeting In Chandigarh Instead"

INC which had expected a narrow victory in HP had plans to fly them out as soon as the results are out so they cannot be poached by BJP.  Then it turned out the scale of the INC victory in terms of seats was significant so this plan was dropped.

[locked_out]

AAP failed to cross the critical 15% threshold in Gujarat.  This means in 2027 it will still most likely be the INC that will be the main challenger to BJP and not AAP.

Could you explain why this is the case?

[jaichind]

AAP failed to cross the critical 15% threshold in Gujarat.  This means in 2027 it will still most likely be the INC that will be the main challenger to BJP and not AAP.

Could you explain why this is the case?

AAP went all out this election while INC was very low-key and got a vote share of less than half of INC.  In a 3-party system, 15% is the minimum for a party to be a viable party that can win.  2017 Punjab AAP went all out and underperformed but won 23% of the vote.  That set up AAP in a sweep in 2023 totally marginalizing SAD along the way.  This result does not look like 2017 Punjab at all.

[jaichind]

I mapped out HP results

                  Contest     Won        Vote share
BJP                68          25            43.26%

BJP rebels                     3              5.90%

RDP              29            0              0.62%  (Upper Caste outfit)

INC               68          40            44.16%

INC rebel                     0               3.09%

AAP              67            0              1.10%

CPM+           11            0              0.90%

BSP              53            0              0.35%

BJP was hit badly by rebels and the Upper Caste outfit RDP.  It seems INC rebels were also significant.  I figure BJP rebels cost the BJP 5-6 seats but INC also lost about 2-3 seats due to rebels so in the end the INC was destined to narrowly win this time given the power of anti-incumbancy.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/himachal-pradesh-assembly-election-2022-i-can-lead-as-chief-minister-polls-won-in-virbhadra-singhs-name-wife-pratibha-singh-tells-ndtv-ahead-of-congre-3591819

"I Can Lead As Chief Minister": Virbhadra Singh's Wife Pratibha To NDTV"

Pratibha Singh, widow of 6-time INC CM Virbhadra Singh (died in 2021  and current MP, is making a pitch to be CM.  She is the current leader of HP INC.  Her son is a MLA who was just elected.  What is interesting is that she is referring to the INC MLAs as the decision makers on who should become CM and not the INC High Command (read: Gandhi clan)   The power of the Gandhi clan to make decisions within INC continue to wane.

[jaichind]

In HP INC beat BJP 44.16% to 43.26% in terms of vote share which is fairly narrow. But the median vote share for INC is 47.55% while the median vote share for BJP is 44.30%.  This bigger gap explains the 40-25 seat difference between INC and BJP.  BJP has a few bastions where it blew out the INC in terms of vote share but was not useful in terms of getting more seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/aap-fails-to-make-the-cut-but-gets-tag-of-national-party-459109

"AAP fails to make the cut, but gets tag of ‘national party’"

AAP's performance in Gujarat qualifies it to be recognized by the ECI as a "national party."

To be a national party, a party has to fulfill any of the three conditions:
1. Win 2% of the seats in the Lok Sabha from at least three different states
2. Poll 6% of the total votes in an Assembly election
3. Have 4 Lok Sabha seats and be recognized as a state party in at least four states

AAP is already a state party in Punjab, Delhi and Goa and needed one more state to be a national party. By winning five seats in Gujarat, the 10-year-old old party is now state party in Gujarat. Therefore, it is now eligible for the status of national party

The 10 National parties now are

BJP
INC
CPI
CPM
AAP
AITC
NPP
BSP
NCP

[jaichind]

Economic Times 2012 2017 and 2022 map of HP

[jaichind]

News 18 map on Gujarat election 2017 and 2022

[jaichind]

BJP now won 7 Gujarat assembly elections in a row (1995 1998 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022) which matches the record of the Left Front in WB where it won 7 WB assembly elections in a row (1997 1982 1987 1991 1996 2001 2006).

2022 or the 7th BJP victory in Gujarat was the largest BJP victory yet.  Warning for BJP, Left Front's 2006 victory in WB which was its 7th victory just like BJP in Gujarat was also its largest victory ever, but in the very next election in 2011 Left Front lost.   Of course for this history to repeat itself INC or maybe AAP needs to find its Mamata Banerjee who finally lead an AITC-INC alliance to victory in WB in 2011.

[jaichind]

The level of micro-organization of the BJP in Gujarat is amazing.  For every 30 active voters, the BJP has a committee of 5 whose job is to track who those 30 active voters are likely to vote for and lobby them to switch to BJP if any seems like they were not likely to vote BJP.  This is on paper so I suspect the reality is a bit less powerful than that.  Still even of the reality is anywhere close to that it is just an amazing election machine.

[jaichind]

I mapped out Gujarat assembly results

               Contest       Win          Vote share
BJP             182         156             53.34%

BJP rebels                     2               1.42%

INC+          181           17             27.97%  (NCP part of INC+)

INC rebels                     1              0.91%

SP               17              1             0.29%

AIMIM         13              0              0.30%

AAP           181              5            13.13%

BSP           101              0             0.50%

BTP+          27               0             0.34% (leader of BTP ran as independent)

BJP rebels were mostly under control and cost the BJP a couple of seats.  On the other side INC rebels cost INC a couple of seats as well.

BTP imploded.  It left the INC-NCP alliance and formed an alliance with AIMIM.  It then broke that alliance and allied with AAP before breaking that alliance.  Left without any credibility one of its two MLAs defected to AAP and won.  BTP's own leader and its other MLA ran for re-election as an independent and lost.

Just to show what could have been.  Both INC-NCP and AAP failed to contest one seat each.  The INC-NCP one was a seat given to NCP whose candidate withdrew.   The result when compared to 2017 was

               2017           2022
BJP           61.1            59.8      
INC           34.2
AAP                             36.5

The seat that AAP failed to contest when compared to 2017 was
      
              2017           2022
BJP          54.1             52.5
INC          44.2            42.4
AIMIM                          1.2

It's just two data points but points to the fact that anti-BJP voters, seeing INC-NCP and APP running everywhere and knowing a split vote would mean a BJP edge in their district, turned out in lower numbers.  In the 2 seats where BJP faced INC or AAP 1-on-1, the BJP failed to gain vote share from 2017.

[jaichind]

Despite INC claims that BJP funded AIMIM to cut into the INC vote the reality is in all 13 seats AIMIM ran, even if you added the AIMIM vote share to INC it would not have made a difference in any of them.  

The INC also claims that the BJP is funding Muslim independents to cut into the INC vote.  I found only one example of this where in one seat 34 independents ran with almost all of them with Muslim names.  This seems to be some independent operation done by the local BJP candidate.  It was totally unnecessary.   The BJP won 55.2% here in 2017 and 53.8% this time.  AIMIM ran here too and got 2.9%.  All these Mulsim independents got around 4.4% altogether.  It does seem Muslim turnout is higher this time which perhaps raddled the BJP candidate.  As a result, he spent funds to get all these Muslims to run to split the Muslim vote.  In the end, it was totally unnecessary especially with INC and AAP already splitting the anti-BJP vote on top of the fact that the BJP candidate won a majority on his own anyway.