India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

India really goes big on exit polls, don't they?

It is primarily for TV ratings. The unavailing of exit polls becomes a massive event that takes 3 hours of analysis.  The TV channels also do not reveal the results immediately since people will stop watching.  They go over all sorts of cross-tabs followed by long discussions before finally telling you what the topline numbers are. 

[jaichind]

Current betting markets

Gujarat
BJP : 135-137
INC : 29-31
AAP : ~8


HP
BJP : 34
INC : 32

Mostly matches the average of exit polls.

[jaichind]

Axis My India has a massive BJP landslide for Gujarat where AAP gets to 20% vote share leading to a collapse of INC

BJP          137         46%
INC           24         26%
AAP          16         20%
Other         5            8%

There does not seem to be any tactical voting between the INC and AAP vote

It seems Axis My India changed its projection.  

It now has

BJP                48%
INC                29%
AAP               15%

It also projects AAP with 9 seats vs 16

No info on how the BJP and INC seat count changes.  Since INC gained 4% and BJP gained 2% from their original projection I assume INC will get most of the 7 seats that AAP vacated.

Clear signs of herding since no one else has AAP at that high of a vote share (20%)

[jaichind]

Delhi MCD results mostly in

AAP     134     42%
BJP      104     39%
INC         9     12%

BJP and INC outperformed while AAP underperformed.  INC won more Muslim votes than expected while BJP took more Hindu votes (most likely due to the Modi factor).

[jaichind]

Map from News18 toward the end of the count. One of the INC leads later went BJP I think.
Note that Delhi MCD elections mostly cover almost all of Delhi except for a couple of special districts in the center of the city.
The 3 Others I think 1 NCP and 2 BJP rebels
Most of INC's wins are in the Muslim parts of the East.

[jaichind]

Delhi 2015 2017 2020 2022 MCD and assembly vote share

            2015      2017         2020        2022
AAP       54.3       26.2          53.6         42.1
BJP        32.2       36.1          38.5         39.1
INC         9.7       21.1            4.3         11.7

2022 seems like a re-run of the 2020 assembly election with the anti-BJP INC tactical vote from 2020 partly going back to INC.

[jaichind]

CSDS post poll survey

Gujarat
BJP 48
INC  29
AAP 13

HP
BJP 44
INC 42

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/gujarat-election-results-2022-live-updates-bjp-aap-congress-arvind-kejriwal-gujarat-assembly-election-result/liveblog/96067992.cms

Times of India says BJP is up in 156. If those results hold it would be a massive massive landslide

[jaichind]

NDTV has it at

Gujarat

BJP     152  !!!
INC       20
AAP         7
SP           1
Ind         2


HP
INC       34
BJP        30
Ind         4

[jaichind]

ECI vote share (null not stripped out)

Gujarat

BJP           53.7%  !!!
INC-NCP    26.8%
AAP           12.9%

it seems the lower turnout was the anti-BJP vote not turning out

HP

BJP          43.6%
INC         43.2%

neck-to-neck and implies INC's current seat lead might not hold

[Continential]

Holy s***

Times of India has HP as

BJP 34
INC 31
Ind 3

though

[jaichind]

Wife of SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, Dimple Yadav, is way ahead (as expected) in the by-election to win the seat for her father-in-law,    Mulayam Singh Yadav, seat that was vacated due to his death.  She returns as a MP after being defeated in 2019.

[jaichind]

ECI has enough votes in (30% in for Gujarat, 60% in for HP) that I will just go with ECI at this stage

Gujarat       

BJP           149    53.5%
INC-NCP     20     26.6%
AAP             8      12.8%
SP               1       0.3%
Ind.            4

HP

INC          36     43.2%
BJP          29      43.3%
AAP           0        1.0%
Ind            3

[jaichind]

BJP vote share in Gujarat is a shock ...

[jaichind]

BJP's vote share in Gujarat (around 53.3%) is the highest ever for BJP here but not an all-time record.  INC won 55.6% here in the 1985 assembly election.  Of course, this vote share is below the 2014 and 2019 LS BJP blowouts of over 60% vote share (that is with Modi at the top of the ticket.)

[jaichind]

The BJP Gujarat landslide was based on the Modi vote.  Many pollsters say that many voters, including BJP voters, cannot even name the BJP CM Bhupendrabhai Patel.  They just say they are voting for Modi.

[jaichind]

ECI results

INC takes the lead in terms of vote share in HP and expands its lead in seats.  The BJP got torpedoed by its rebels in HP.

Gujarat       

BJP           154    53.3%
INC-NCP     18     26.8%
AAP             6      12.8%
SP               1       0.3%
Ind.            3

HP

INC          38     43.5%
BJP          27      43.3%
AAP           0        1.0%
Ind            3

[jaichind]

The likely flip of HP from BJP to INC is the first INC flip of a state since 2018.

[jaichind]

The various assembly by-elections are not going well for BJP.  It seems BJP will lose all of them. To be fair most of them were held in seats not won by BJP last time but BJP failed to flip any of them.

[jaichind]

AAP failed to cross the critical 15% threshold in Gujarat.  This means in 2027 it will still most likely be the INC that will be the main challenger to BJP and not AAP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

BJP vote share in Gujarat is a shock ...

Extremely stunning given how much it shatters their previous record of 127. Like how does a party gain so much after being in power for so long and after years in power at a national level too especially given the fundamentals right now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The BJP Gujarat landslide was based on the Modi vote.  Many pollsters say that many voters, including BJP voters, cannot even name the BJP CM Bhupendrabhai Patel.  They just say they are voting for Modi.

Btw when I was in Gujarat last month, I saw photos of Modi literally everywhere along with Amit Shah . Even on businesses and rickshaws

[jaichind]

ECI results

BJP vote share lead decreases a bit but gains seats from AAP.  INC now fairly secure in HP.

Gujarat       

BJP           158    52.5%
INC-NCP     16     27.6%
AAP             4      12.9%
SP               1       0.3%
Ind.             3

HP

INC          39     43.9%
BJP          26      43.0%
AAP           0        1.1%
Ind            3

[jaichind]

The SP winner in Gujarat is really a NCP rebel.  He won the same seat in 2012 and 2017 as NCP.  It seems he objected to the NCP alliance with INC so he quit from NCP and ran for re-election as SP.  It seems he totally marginalized the INC candidate and too over the anti-BJP vote to win re-election.

[jaichind]

The 3 independent winners in Gujarat seems to be

a) An INC MLA that won in 2017 but then defected to BJP in 2019 but lost his by-election as BJP candidate to INC.  He was not nominated by the BJP and decided to run as an independent and seems to have won against both BJP and INC.

b) A BJP rebel that lost in 2017 but tried again and won beating both BJP and INC.

c) A ultra-rich BJP rebel that came in second to BJP  (INC gave the seat to BTP who was way behind in 4th behind an INC rebel) in 2017.  Came back again and beat both BJP and INC.