India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

India TV poll for Gujarat

           Seats      Vote share
BJP       119           51.3%
INC        59           37.2%
AAP         3             7.2%
Others     1

A slight swing toward BJP in 2017 but INC loses some votes to AAP leads to large BJP win



India TV HP poll

          Seats     Vote share
BJP        41           46%
INC        25           42%
AAP         0             2%
Ind          2

Close race between BJP and INC in terms of vote share

[jaichind]

Isudan Gadhvi will be the AAP face for CM in Gujarat.  He was a TV journalist and does have some level of name recognition in Gujarat.   The main problem is that he only joined AAP last year so it will take a while to get voters to link him to AAP.

[jaichind]

This AAP video that just came out which I guess takes a scene from some movie is quite good and funny.  It shows INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi and Navjot Singh Sidhu fighting each other for the Punjab CM seat (represented by the women) and then AAP CM face Bhagwant Mann appears to be the true claimant much to the pleasure of Arvind Kejriwal and anger of Rahul Gandhi

https://twitter.com/i/status/1483337152742461444

It seems AAP is coming out with a similar type of ad for Gujarat promoting its CM candidate
https://twitter.com/AamAadmiParty/status/1588475013203918849

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/tripura-minors-gang-rape-bjp-8231903/

"Tripura minor’s gang-rape: BJP comes out in support of accused minister’s son"

With Tripura assembly elections coming soon in early 2023 things are not going well for the BJP.  There was a high-profile gang rape case that involve the son of a BJP minister.  it seems the BJP is backing its minister and son in claiming that this is a bum wrap.

In the Hindu heartland, this would be no big deal but this is less true in Bengali and Tribal Tripura.  BJP looking vulnerable might provoke an INC-Left Front-TIPRA (INC tribal splinter) grand alliance to take on BJP-IPFT.

[jaichind]

Assembly by-election results.  Mostly status quo and relatively positive for BJP

Bihar Gopalganj - the death of BJP MLA

BJP        41.6  (backed by LJP(RV))
RJD       40.5  (backed by JD(U)-INC-Left-HAM-VIP)
AIMIM     7.3
BSP         5.3

Back in 2020, it was

BJP         43.7 (backed by JD(U)-HAM-VIP)
BSP        23.1 (has RJD and then  INC background)
INC         20.5 (backed by RJD-Left)

JD(U) vote did not seem to shift to RJD



Bihar Mokama - RJD MLA was convicted of sexual assault

RJD          53.4  (backed by JD(U)-INC-Left-HAM-VIP)
BJP           42.2 (backed by LJP(RV))

Back in 2020, it was

RJD          54.7 (backed by INC-Left)
JD(U)        29.8 (backed by BJP)
LJP             9.3
RLSP          2.8

Again it seems the JD(U) vote did not move toward RJD despite the shift in alliance and instead LJP vote shifted to BJP



Haryana Adampur - INC MLA (key INC faction leader) defected to BJP and ran for re-election

BJP            51.3 (was the 2019 INC winner) (backed by JJP)
INC            39.4
INLD            4.0
AAP             2.6

back in 2019, it was

INC            52.0  (later defected to BJP)
BJP            27.9
JJP             12.6
CPM             1.7
INLD            1.6
BSP              1.6

Core INC vote stayed loyal but part of the old INC MLA vote went with him to BJP along with most of the JJP vote.   The winner, Kuldeep Bishnoi, was the leader of the INC splinter HJC which was allied with the BJP before merging it back into INC in 2016.  Now he rebels again to join BJP.



Maharashtra Andheri East - SHS MLA passed away

SHS(U) nominated the widow of the old SHS MLA and BJP-BSHS under pressure did not field a candidate leading to a walkover win for SHS(U)



Odisha Dhamnagar - BJP MLA passed away

BJP                48.8
BJD               42.9
BJD rebel         5.5
INC                 2.1

back in 2019, it was

BJP               48.7
BJD               45.8
INC                 4.4

A status quo election here is positive for BJP given the fact that BJD is the ruling party.



Telangana Munugode - INC MLA defected to BJP

TRS              42.0
BJP               39.2 (was elected in 2018 as INC)
INC               11.4

back in 2018, it was

INC              49.7 (later defected to BJP)
TRS             38.2
BJP               6.5

The INC MLA defection move to BJP failed and lost re-election.  It seems the INC MLA defecting consolidated the anti-TRS vote around him but enough of the core INC vote remained to prevent him from winning.  Still very bad omens for INC for the upcoming 2023 Telangana assembly elections.




Uttar Pradesh Gola Gokrannath - BJP MLA passed away

BJP              55.9
SP               40.5

Earlier in 2022, it was

BJP              49.0
SP               37.7
BSP             10.5
INC               1.4

Looks like the BSP vote was evenly split between BJP and SP.  This is expected given the fact that BJP is the ruling party.  SP's performance is not bad given the circumstances.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tripura-assembly-polls-2023-will-cpi-m-congress-come-together-to-dethrone-bjp-101667738549790.html

"Tripura Assembly polls 2023: Will CPI(M), Congress come together to dethrone BJP?"

More signs of an anti-BJP grand alliance in Tripura made up of INC Left Front and TIPRA.  Grand alliances like this usually do not work as the INC and Left Front vote blocs have historically been hostile to each other.  INC vote went over to BJP in 2018 to defeat Left Front.  There are signs that this INC vote is coming back to INC while BJP continues to eat into the Left Front vote.  Such a grand alliance, while it looks good on paper, could drive those INC votes right back to BJP.

To defeat BJP I think the opposition is best going with INC-TIPRA vs Left Front vs BJP.  This way INC and Left Front can concentrate on getting their respective vote bloc back while BJP deals with large-scale anti-incumbancy.

[omar04]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/the-curious-case-of-aap-in-himachal-pradesh-and-gujarat-strategy-or-compulsion-448861

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/almost-missing-in-hp-aap-trying-to-make-inroads-in-guj-448669

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/the-curious-case-of-aap-in-himachal-pradesh-and-gujarat-strategy-or-compulsion-448861

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/almost-missing-in-hp-aap-trying-to-make-inroads-in-guj-448669

Yeah, after I read over the AAP candidate list for HP I concluded that AAP in HP is a big bluff.  I would be curious to see what sort of candidates AAP will field for Gujarat where there are pockets of strength for the AAP.

[jaichind]

HP voting is in progress.  Turnout is around 37% by 1 pm.  Back in 2017 was around 75% in the end.  It is hard to say which side benefits from a higher turnout but my guess is the higher the turnout the better it is for BJP as the very marginal voter are very likely to be pro-Modi.

[jaichind]

Voting is done in HP.  Turnout seems to be around 73% which is slightly down from 2017.  If a higher turnout is good news for BJP then this sort of turnout seems to mean that INC is still in the game.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/gujarat-assembly/gujarat-assembly-polls-bjp-faces-rebellion-protests-as-leaders-who-have-been-droppeddenied-tickets-are-sulking/article66131726.ece

"Gujarat Assembly polls | BJP faces protests, rebellion as senior leaders denied tickets"

It seems BJP has already dropped 40 MLAs from their list of candidates.  This includes former BJP CM Vijay Rupani and former BJP DCM Nitin Patel.  It seems the BJP is facing large anti-incumbency and is trying to mitigate it by dropping a bunch of MLAs risking rebellion and hoping that the fresh face can pull in marginal voters while the BJP base vote on party symbol and not candidate name.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat INC-BTP alliance fell through but the INC-NCP alliance is on with the seat split being 179 for INC and 3 for NCP

[jaichind]

My understanding is that the vast majority of these cases are when the husband is drunk.  So this map is also a proxy map of male alcoholism.  This is why prohibition plays very well with Indian women voters.  Bihar's Nitish Kumar really cracked down on alcohol sales back in 2013 and it paid dividends for JD(U) in 2015 and 2020.  AIADMK historically has done the same in TN and also has done better with women voters.

Note that Upper Caste Hindu-heavy areas where alcohol is also frowned upon also have lower rates.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My understanding is that the vast majority of these cases are when the husband is drunk.  So this map is also a proxy map of male alcoholism.  This is why prohibition plays very well with Indian women voters.  Bihar's Nitish Kumar really cracked down on alcohol sales back in 2013 and it paid dividends for JD(U) in 2015 and 2020.

Interesting to see all the variance in Northeast India there.

[jaichind]

I will do a even deeper dive on Gujarat candidate list but so far I am getting

a) BJP dropped a lot of sitting MLAs.  Some of them have rebelled but most likely it is under control
b) INC mostly goes with incumbents or previous candidates to try to hold on to the INC base
c) AAP list is not a joke like HP.  It does have few BJP defectors but a lot of 2nd and 3rd-tier INC leaders.  It seems AAP is looking to take down INC this election and then take on BJP in 2027.  It sort of matches the old India party growth strategy "you first run to lose, then you run to make others lose then you run to win."

[jaichind]

CSDS survey for Gujarat has

BJP        47
AAP       22
INC       21

If this is what takes place unless there is AAP-INC tactical voting it will be a BJP massive landslide.

[jaichind]

After some delays, the 2022 Delhi Municipal Corporation election is finally taking place on Dec 4th with counting on Dec 7th.

BJP won here in 2007 2012 and 2017.  AAP is determined to win this time around and the race is most likely neck-to-neck between BJP and AAP.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, 26 out of 182 AAP candidates have serious criminal backgrounds.  This is a good sign for AAP.  Usually, these types of candidates are local kingpins who are more likely to win than those that do not have serious criminal backgrounds.  Clearly, this will hurt AAP in urban areas in terms of image but this is a net win for AAP in terms of having winnable candidates.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/maldhari-mahapanchayat-appeals-to-community-to-vote-against-bjp-8283988/

"Maldhari Mahapanchayat appeals to community to vote against BJP"

Bad news for BJP in Gujarat.  The Maldhari-based Gujarat Maldhari Mahapanchayat asked members of the community to vote against the BJP.  The Maldhari is a herdsmen community and makeup 10% of Gujarat's population.

[jaichind]

Shining India survey of Gujarat.  APP takes more of the BJP than other surveys.

[jaichind]

2017 Gujarat result by community estimate



Back in the 1980s, INC dominated Gujarat by KHAM - Kshatriya(Warrior Upper caste)-Harijan(Dalit)-Adivasi(Tribals)-Muslims.  You can still see some signs of this old INC coalition in 2017 with BJP's margin of victory coming from communities outside of those blocs.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, BJP is going all out to try to counter anti-incumbency.  AAP is also very active.  INC is fighting a very low-key campaign.   I suspect INC's thinking is that a high-pitched campaign would mean a Modi vs Rahul Gandhi battle which could only nationalize the race and produce a BJP landslide.  So instead INC is trying to let anti-incumbency do the work for them by trying to lower the impact of Modi.  The main risk INC is taking is that such an approach would mean AAP has a good chance to come in and eat up the INC vote.

[jaichind]

AAP does well in the Haryana Zila Parishad elections.   This is especially true in areas close to AAP-ruled Punjab.  To be fair the headline is somewhat misleading as AAP ran on its symbol in this election while both BJP and INC ran their candidate without their party symbol in most places.  Still a big breakthrough for AAP in Haryana.

[jaichind]

ABP-CVoter poll for Gujarat

            Seats         Vote share
BJP       138                46%
INC        32                27%
AAP        11                21%
Others     1                   6%




Signs that AAP is taking a bit of the BJP vote. The bad news for INC is this poll seems to indicate low levels of INC-AAP tactical voting with support for INC and AAP evenly split leading to BJP landslide.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/prannoy-roy-radhika-roy-resign-from-ndtv-board-8296945/lite/

"Prannoy Roy, wife resign from NDTV Board"

Powerful pro-BJP Adani group buys relatively anti-BJP NDTV.  Some famous anti-BJP media personalities resign for NDTV before they are likely to get the can anyway.