India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 20, 2022, 08:10:04 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec  (Read 1686 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2022, 07:09:54 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/up-election-up-polls-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-names-mother-of-2017-unnao-rape-victim-as-congress-candidate-2705478

"Congress Names 2017 UP Rape Victim's Mother As Poll Candidate"

One of INC's UP candidates is the mother of the 2017 Unnao rape victim.  Back in 2017, the BJP MLA was accused of raping a then 17-year-old girl.  Afterward, it was clear that the local police were trying to not follow up on the case.  Only media and opposition party pressure get the legal system into action when the victim attempted to immolate herself at the residence of BJP CM Yogi Adityanath.  Then in 2019 while the case was being tried the alleged victim was killed in a car accident which many consider suspicious.  All this national attention did lead to the BJP MLA being convicted and expelled from the BJP in late 2019.  This case is still being appealed and it will not surprise me if the ex-BJP MLA will try to run for re-election.  It also seems that the BJP might run the wife of this ex-BJP MLA although I am pretty sure the negative PR associated with this will stop them from doing so.  Anyway, the INC will run the mother of the victim as their candidate.  She will not win but the INC will get some PR points out of this.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2022, 08:43:30 AM »

Election analyst chart of 2017 vote by community

Too bad there is no breakout of the Dalit vote of Jatav and non-Jatav Dalit.  The chart shows the critical nature of the non-Yadav OBC to the BJP landslide.  SP was reduced to its Muslim-Yadav core while BSP was reduced to its Dalit core.



This time around there will be a Yadav Muslim consolidation behind SP.  BJP has to convince the non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit to counter-consolidate around BJP.  SP has to break up this BJP plan by a caste by caste appeal to non-Yadav OBC and hope that INC can pick up some marginal Dalit voters that might overwise go to BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2022, 08:55:21 AM »

In this round of elections, the main enemy of INC is actually not BJP but AAP and SP.    AAP and SP are in a battle to capture the anti-BJP by projecting itself as the main alternative to the BJP (SP in UP and AAP in Punjab Goa and Uttarakhand.)  While it is de facto INC vs BJP in Manipur and Uttarakhand for INC what is more important is to win Punjab over AAP, become the main anti-BJP party in Goa, make sure AAP does not eat into the INC vote in Uttarakhand, and avoid total marginalization in UP by SP. 

For INC this round of elections is more about the survival of its brand as the main anti-BJP party than making sure BJP is defeated which is really a secondary goal.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2022, 09:02:28 AM »

In Goa, it seems INC and NCP were not able to work out an alliance deal.  So it will be INC-GFP with INC running in 36 seats and GFP running in 4 seats.  AAP and MAG-AITC are also coming up with their candidates so it is unlikely there will be even a tactical alliance between these 3 anti-BJP blocs (INC-GFP, AAP, and MAG-AITC.)   SHS seems eager to run in Goa so it might be a NCP-SHS alliance to run as a separate bloc. 

Also in the fray is a new party RG (Revolutionary Goans) which is a regionalist party.  MAG is also Goa regionalist but have since become more a OBC Hindu regionalist party.  UGDP used to be the Christian regionalist Goa party but have since become de facto defuncted over the last 2-3 election cycles.  It seems RG is an attempt to rope in the old UGDP vote as well as get some MAG votes as well.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2022, 09:07:56 AM »

Jan Ki Baat poll for Goa

BJP is close to a majority based on INC-GFP and AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote.  I mostly do not buy the AAP vote share being that high.  The INC will have a clear candidate quality edge over AAP so when it comes to actual voting INC will outperform and AAP will underperform.   One could argue that Goa 2022 is like Delhi 2015 when the AAP came out of nowhere to capture a good part of the old INC vote.  The main problem is that in 2015 AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal was already well known while Goa AAP leader Rahul Mhambre is a non-entity.   Without a clear known popular CM face the anti-BJP vote will consolidate around the more well-known local candidate which would give INC the edge over AAP.  BJP could very well win based on AAP and MAG-AITC taking enough of the anti-BJP vote but I do not buy AAP vote share being higher than INC.




BTW, if these votes share are true then BJP should win 30+ seats and not 20 seats.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2022, 10:37:10 AM »

Jan Ki Baat poll for Punjab

Narrow majority for AAP edging out INC.  INC strength in Hindu areas and SAD still having some support in Sikh areas splitting the anti-INC vote is keeping it close but it is clear that AAP will most likely win.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2022, 12:27:41 PM »

The defection game is already very hot in UP and will start very soon in other states as well.  There is a standard Indian politician defection news article.  All of them are variations of what I wrote below.


 
<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasingly autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.
 
 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2022, 03:42:17 PM »

Jan Ki Baat poll for UP

Solid BJP+ win.  Anti-BJP vote consolidates around SP+ with INC going down to 5% and 0-1 seats but it is not enough as BJP+ mostly retains their 2017 vote.


Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2022, 05:55:09 PM »

https://theprint.in/politics/dissension-over-congress-cm-face-grows-as-sidhu-insists-people-will-decide-not-high-command/801314/

"Dissension over Congress’ CM face grows as Sidhu insists ‘people will decide, not high command’"

Continued chaos in Punjab INC on who will be the INC CM candidate.  Current INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi should be the clear candidate but INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu is still snipping to try to get the job himself.  This is a de facto Rahul Gandhi vs Priyanka Gandhi proxy war.  It seems Rahul Gandhi is backing INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi but it seems Priyanka Gandhi is de facto backing Navjot Singh Sidhu ergo there is a continued deadlock.  



Of course, on the AAP side, something similar is going on.  It is clear that the AAP CM face  should be Punjab AAP chief Bhagwant Mann but it seems AAP is reluctant to just come out and say it

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/punjab-assembly-election/who-will-be-aap-s-cm-face-in-punjab-let-people-decide-says-arvind-kejriwal-101642055103286.html

"Who will be AAP's CM face in Punjab? Let people decide, says Arvind Kejriwal"

The reason seems to be what we Chinese call 功高震主 or (A subordinate that is too capable is a threat to his master).  What AAP leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal seem to be afraid of is that if AAP wins under the leadership of Bhagwant Man then he will form an alternative power center within the AAP and be a threat to the overall leadership of Arvind Kejriwal.

So it is more chaos ahead in the two front runner parties in Punjab.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: January 15, 2022, 06:00:08 AM »

In UP, the BJP’s first list of 107 has 22 sitting MLAs lose tickets.  As I pointed out before the BJP does sense anti-incumbency on the ground and the need to change caste dynamics so it is taking the risk of mass rebellion with sitting MLAs to swap out candidates.

The various BJP MLA defections, mostly to SP, continue in anticipation.  Worrying for BJP the BJP defections are very OBC heavy.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: January 15, 2022, 06:11:12 AM »

Another observation of the caste distribution of BJP candidates is that they are fairly Jatav heavy Yadav weak.  It seems the BJP accepts that with SP being the main anti-BJP party the Yadavs will consolidate around SP (unlike 2019).  On the other hand, BJP senses weakness in BSP and will target the BSP Jatav base to make up for anti-BJP consolidation around SP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: January 15, 2022, 06:53:15 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2022, 06:56:30 AM by jaichind »

A look at the BJP and SP alliances partners says the election is all about OBCs and the SP attempt at an anti-BJP consolidation.

BJP allies
AD(S) - AD is a BSP OBC splinter that appels to Kurmi caste in the east.  AD had allied with the BJP in 2007 but went with the Muslim PECP in 2012.  AD allied with BJP in 2014 and has been a fairly loyal ally for BJP since.  AD did split in 2016 with the mainstream faction AD(S) being led by the daughter of the original founder and the anti-BJP AD(K) being led by the wife the original founder (and mother of the leader of AD(S).)

NISHAD - As described by the name this appeals to the NISHAD OBC caste in Eastern UP.  It was formed in 2016 as an anti-BJP party and ran in 2017 as an ally of the Muslim PECP and anti-BJP AD(K) faction.  It then formed an alliance with SP before switching over to BJP for the 2019 LS elections.  The BJP saw how big the Nishad vote could be and did everything to keep NISHAD on its side

JD(U) - JD(U) is a BJP ally in Bihar that has some influence with the Kurmi vote on the UP-Bihar border. It is not clear if BJP will actually allocate them any seats.

SP allies

RLD - Western Jat-based party.  It was formed in 1996 but it is really an extension of the old LKD that merged into JD in the late 1980s.  Over the years it has allied with SP BJP and INC.  Jats are a powerful land-owning OBC caste concentrated in the Western UP.  In 2013 there was a massive Jat-Mulsim riot which shifted the Jat vote decisively toward BJP which has led to the decline of the RLD where it totally bombed running by itself in 2017.   RLD ran with the SP-BSP alliance in 2019 but lost a bunch of Jat votes to Modi's BJP.  The farm protests had turned the Jats away from BJP so a RLD alliance is much more valuable to the SP this time.

SBSP - BSP OBC splinter formed in 2002 that appeals to  Rajbhar caste in Eastern UP.  It ran with the BSP Muslim splinter QED in 2012 and tt formed an alliance with the BJP in 2017 and gained from the BJP landslide.  It soon fell out with BJP and ran separately in 2019.  It has since joined the SP alliance with SP looking to shore up its OBC vote in Eastern UP.

PSP(L) - SP splinter that appeals to Jats.  When SP CM Akhilesh Yadav completely took over SP from his father Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2017 it triggered a revolt from his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav which cost SP some Yadav votes.  Shivpal Singh Yadav since formed PSP(L) and ran in 2019 splitting some SP votes.  Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav have been since reconciled and there are talks of a SP-PSP(L) merger but in the meantime PSP(L) will run as an ally of SP consolidating the Yadav vote.

RJD - Main opposition party in Bihar with some minor influence with Yadavs on the UP-Bihar border.  They have no real influence in UP but SP brought them on as a symbolic gesture for Muslims and other anti-BJP voters to project SP as THE anti-BJP party in UP.

NCP - INC splinter that is part of the anti-BJP alliance in Maharastra.  No real influence in UP.  Just like RJD, SP brought on NCP mostly for show and project a message to the Muslims and other marginal anti-BJP voters that SP is THE anti-BJP party.

AD(K) - As mentioned above.  This is the anti-BJP AD faction.  They are in the SP camp mostly to try to get some Kurmi votes.

MD - Formed in 2008 as an OBC Maurya caste party that has some influence in Eastern UP.  It allied with INC in 2014 and had a tactical alliance with INC in 2019 and did poorly.  SP brought them abroad again to try to win OBC votes in Eastern UP.

ASP - There is talk of anti-BJP Dalit activist Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan's APS also being in the SP alliance.  I doubt this will go anywhere.  It is not clear how much Dalit votes ASP could get for SP and the number of seats ASP will demand will be too much.  SP will most likely figure the Dalit votes ASP can get are anti-BJP anyway and will go SP way in a BJP-SP polarization election.


In 2017 SP tried an alliance with INC to consolidate the Muslim vote but it was clear by the results the INC Upper Caste and Dalit base voted for BJP instead of SP.  This time around SP is using up its alliance slots to rope in OBC vote in Eastern UP while by giving a few seats to national anti-BJP parties with no influence in UP SP hopes that the INC Muslim vote automatically comes over to SP without having to waste seat allocation to INC.  So the SP plan is to totally marginalize INC while trying to claw some OBC votes in Eastern UP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2022, 07:05:09 AM »

So it seems in UP this time around with RLD joining the SP bloc Western UP will have a fairly "clean" BJP vs SP-RLD battle.  INC and BSP are fairly weak in Western UP so the battle there will be mostly bipolar.  

Eastern UP will be complex.  BSP is much stronger here and INC will have their pockets of strength, the alliance math for both SP and BJP are more complex with all sorts of local OBC ally parties, and there are all sorts of local factions and even Bihar-based parties that want to get into the act.  The level of defections in Eastern UP seems much higher so you will also see all sorts of rebels and party churn here as well. Eastern UP will see many multi-cornered battles with SP and BJP bloc clearly being the biggest but all sorts of other players having a chance at winning.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2022, 07:08:57 AM »

ECI extends the ban on physical rallies and roadshows until Jan 22.  ECI grants relaxation for the political parties to the extent that indoor meetings of a maximum of 300 persons or 50% of the capacity of the hall.

All things equal this tends to help the ruling parties all of the states.  BJP benefits the most as the cadre party but this also limits the ability for Modi to get into the act to claw in non-BJP voters to vote BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2022, 07:44:24 AM »

Looking at the voting schedule in UP I noticed something that is quite inconvenient for the BJP relative to the current COVID-19 surge.  Typically voting in many phases like in UP helps the BJP since it can deploy its cadres and Modi phase by phase to push up the BJP vote phase by phase.  What is interesting this time is the phases in UP will go from West to East with the West voting first and East voting later.  The problem with this for the BJP is the timing.  The current COVID-19 surge is already showing up in urban India and if the pattern of spread is similar to April-July in 2021 it will go from the urban to rural areas.  COVID-19 is now clearly in Delhi and there are signs of it spreading to Western UP.

With elections starting a month from now and voting to go from West to East, we could get a situation where the voting will take place EXACTLY at the same time as the peak of that region as the COVID-19 spread from urban Delhi to West UP and then East UP.  This means the memories of government mismanagement of the 2021 COVID-19 surge will be reactivated at exactly the wrong time for the BJP as the voting takes place. 

The BJP will have other tools to counter this which is mostly pushing the narrative that SP is the Muslim party to get a Hindu consolidation around BJP but this is yet another problem for the BJP to overcome in UP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: January 15, 2022, 07:50:03 AM »

One thing going for BJP of course is the Modi brand which is still very strong.  The Morning Consult Global Leader Approval poll still has him at #1.  Although many recent assembly elections show that unless Modi is at the top of the ticket the benefit of this to BJP is limited especially in an anti-incumbency situation.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2022, 12:49:44 PM »

UP voting phases map

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: January 16, 2022, 07:17:30 AM »

https://www.republicworld.com/elections/uttar-pradesh/aparna-yadav-mulayam-singhs-daughter-in-law-snubs-sp-likely-to-join-bjp-today-articleshow.html

"2022 UP elections: Aparna Yadav, Mulayam Singh's Daughter-in-law, Snubs SP; Likely To Join BJP"

Many outlets are reporting that Aparna Yadav, daughter-in-law of SP founder and patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav and sister-in-law of SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, will defect to BJP.   She has been on bad terms with Akhilesh Yadav since he took over the party from his father in 2017.  She nominally stuck around in SP with hopes that  Akhilesh Yadav's uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav's rebellion plus help from  Mulayam Singh Yadav could cut   Akhilesh Yadav down to size.  It seems with Shivpal Singh Yadav reconciled with Akhilesh Yadav and PSP(L) entering into an alliance with SP projecting Akhilesh Yadav as the CM face there is very little room for Aparna Yadav.   

Still, it is a coup that the BJP got her to join BJP versus just de facto political retirement.  Aparna Yadav does not have any real mass base so the impact on voting will be nil. Still, this will eat up news headlines for a few days with a solid pro-BJP defection and counter the endless trickle of OBC BJP MLAs defecting to SP.  In that sense this coup is worth it for BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: January 16, 2022, 07:27:06 AM »

NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad says the party will contest in 15 assembly seats in the UP alliance with the BJP.  AD(S) will mostly get around 10 seats from BJP.

On the SP front side, it seems RLD will get around 30 seats.  I can see SBSP getting around 10-15 seats but the other SP allies will get 1-2 seats each (NCP RJD JP(S) AP(K) MD.)  I can see AD(K) maybe getting 3-4 seats.   Perhaps PSP(L) might get something like 5 seats for Shivpal Singh Yadav and a few of his close colleagues.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: January 16, 2022, 07:31:31 AM »

In Uttarakhand, BJP MLA Harak Singh Rawat might defect back to INC due to BJP not being willing to give a ticket to his daughter-in-law.  Harak Singh Rawat was a significant INC leader but took a bunch of INC MLAs to defect to BJP because INC was not willing to appoint him to be CM.  Now he is openly barging for more power for his family or else he will go back to INC and I assume take back some of the ex-INC and now BJP MLAs.  

I do like the fact that he is open about this versus trying to hide behind some made-up ideological reasons for these defections and counter-defections.

https://www.jagran.com/uttarakhand/dehradun-city-22386701.html

The problem for the BJP is if they accommodate Harak Singh Rawat then other local BJP factions will object and them might in turn rebel.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: January 16, 2022, 07:36:22 AM »

The media is making less of a big deal about it but there seems to be a steady trickle of INC defections to BJP in Punjab.  The reasons seem similar to BJP defections to SP in UP where INC is looking to drop a bunch of MLAs to avoid anti-incumbency so some of these INC MLAs are jumping ship ahead of time. What is interesting is they are jumping to BJP and not AAP or SAD.  Punjab was expected to be a 3 way battle between INC AAP and SAD-BSP with BJP-PLC-SAD(S) being far behind in single digits.  These INC defections seem to show that the BJP bloc might throw up a surprise and turn this into a 4-way battle.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: January 16, 2022, 07:47:23 AM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/punjab-assembly-polls-2022/story/charanjit-singh-channi-brother-manohar-denied-congress-ticket-fight-as-independent-candidate-1900647-2022-01-16

"Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi's brother denied Congress ticket, to fight as independent candidate"

Just to show the chaos in the Punjab INC, the brother of INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi was denied an INC ticket (I think this is partly as a way to battle the image of nepotism but also Charanjit Singh Channi has his own enemies in the INC) and will run as an INC rebel.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: January 16, 2022, 08:11:20 AM »

Followup from a story of Dec 20 2021

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/goa/goa-congress-mla-aleixo-reginaldo-lourenco-named-as-election-candidate-resigns-7681770/

"Goa: Congress MLA Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco, named as election candidate, resigns; likely to join TMC"

It now seems Reginaldo Lourenco 3 time INC MLA that just defected to AITC less than a month ago have now left AITC

Resignation letter to AITC


This fits perfectly on what I said a while ago when there was a bunch of INC MLA defections to AITC (in addition to BJ) that AITC does not have a base in Goa and that they were likely to do poorly.  I guess now Reginaldo Lourenco has come to the same conclusion.   I wonder if he will try to rejoin INC or jump to AAP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: January 16, 2022, 10:55:39 AM »

In UP the BJP explicit strategy which has been verbally stated as their slogan is "80 vs 20" which implies a Hindu consolidation against the 20% of the population that is Muslim.  SP seems to be countering with "85 vs 15" which is anti-Thakur/non-Brahmin Upper Caste consolidation.  Yogi Adityanath is a Thakur and it is clear there Brahmin resentment toward Thakur which explains the SP slogan of "85 vs 15".  In other words, BJP wants voting to be on religious lines and SP wants to vote on caste lines.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,496
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: January 16, 2022, 04:16:18 PM »

In Uttarakhand, BJP MLA Harak Singh Rawat might defect back to INC due to BJP not being willing to give a ticket to his daughter-in-law.  Harak Singh Rawat was a significant INC leader but took a bunch of INC MLAs to defect to BJP because INC was not willing to appoint him to be CM.  Now he is openly barging for more power for his family or else he will go back to INC and I assume take back some of the ex-INC and now BJP MLAs.  

I do like the fact that he is open about this versus trying to hide behind some made-up ideological reasons for these defections and counter-defections.

https://www.jagran.com/uttarakhand/dehradun-city-22386701.html

The problem for the BJP is if they accommodate Harak Singh Rawat then other local BJP factions will object and them might in turn rebel.

It seems confirmed from several media outlets that former INC leader and now BJP MLA  Harak Singh Rawat will join INC tomorrow with a bunch of BJP MLAs all of which I am sure were with INC when they defected with  Harak Singh Rawat to BJP.  They are now merely defecting back.

One way or another a big boost to INC.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 12 queries.