India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Zee News exit poll on HP

BJP      39         47%
INC      24        41%
AAP       2          2%  (I find it hard to believe AAP can win 2 seats in HP)
Others   3       10%

[jaichind]

Times Now HP exit poll

BJP       44      45.1%
INC       21     40.9%
AAP        0       5.3%
Others    1       8.7%


Their seat share adds up to 66 when it should be 68

[jaichind]

So far only Axis-My India is sticking its neck out there in predicting an INC win for HP.

[jaichind]

TV9 exit poll for Gujarat

BJP       128
INC        45
AAP         4
Others     5

[jaichind]

Note that the 2017 Gujarat exit polls overestimated BJP across the board

[jaichind]

HP poll of polls has BJP with a slight edge

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya exit poll for HP has BJP-INC tied at 33 seats each and 42% vote share each

[jaichind]

Axis My India has a massive BJP landslide for Gujarat where AAP gets to 20% vote share leading to a collapse of INC

BJP          137         46%
INC           24         26%
AAP          16         20%
Other         5            8%

There does not seem to be any tactical voting between the INC and AAP vote

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya exit poll for Gujarat has a monster BJP landslide even bigger than My Axis India

BJP         150     50%
INC          19     26%
AAP         11      20%
Others       2        4%

[jaichind]

Shining India has a much more pro-INC version of exit polls

HP

INC       38       44.5%
BJP       26       42.6%
Others    4        8.7%




Gujarat

BJP         118     39.1%
INC          51      29.6%
AAP         10      22.3%
Others      3        4.1%

[jaichind]

Poll of polls

Gujarat - will be a BJP landslide. What is unclear is the nature of the landslide in terms of what is the AAP vote share and where it comes from


HP - looks like is neck-to-neck with a slight edge for BJP.  But BJP as incumbent party means they are more likely than not to overperform on exit polls

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit poll for Delhi MCD shows a clear education divide.  High educated vote BJP while those with very little education vote AAP

[Continential]

So what are the “other” parties that could get seats in HP/Gujarat? 

[jaichind]

So what are the “other” parties that could get seats in HP/Gujarat? 

In HP it is INC or BJP rebels.  In Gujarat it is either BTP (JD(U) tribal splinter) that has some support in the tribal areas that won 2 seats back in 2017 in alliance with INC or just BJP/INC rebels.

[jaichind]

Times Now: Top issues for Gujarat are inflation 44%, and unemployment 26%.

These are very anti-incumbent numbers.  The fact that the BJP can win a landslide here means that while the voters do not believe the BJP will solve their problems they are more convinced that INC will not either.

[jaichind]

If AAP gets above 20% in Gujarat then it is very bad news for INC in the short run and bad news for the BJP in the long run.  INC had a cap in Gujarat of around 45% but in theory AAP does not have such a cap.

[jaichind]

Local HP media do give INC the edge agreeing with Axis My India as opposed to other national exit polls that give the edge to the BJP.

[Continential]

When will the results start to come out?

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Lok Poll has a quixotic

BJP     91   42%
INC      73   39%
AAP     11   14%

[jaichind]

When will the results start to come out?

Delhi MCD Dec 7th.  HP and Gujarat assembly Dec 8th.

[jaichind]

Its time to apply my exit poll to results algorithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

Gujarat

Average of exit polls

BJP       132
INC        38
AAP         8
Other       4

There are two exit polls (ABP and India TV) that did a pre-election poll and an exit poll

India TV
                          BJP         INC        AAP
Pre-election         117         59          4
Exit poll              117          56          6

ABP
                         BJP         INC       AAP
Pre-election        135          35         11
Exit poll              134          37          7

No real movement.  So no reason not to go with the average of polls.  BJP is the winning party so no need to remove Today Chanakya.  This gives us

BJP       132
INC        38
AAP         8
Other       4

as the exit polls implied result


HP

The average exit poll is

BJP           35
INC          30
AAP           0
Others       3

Same two exit polls (ABP and India TV) that did a pre-election poll and an exit poll

India TV
                          BJP         INC        Others
Pre-election          41          25          2
Exit poll               38          29          1

ABP
                          BJP         INC        Others
Pre-election          35          32          1
Exit poll               37          29          2

So the two polls swung in opposite directions.  So with that, there is no reason not to go with the average of exit polls which is

BJP           35
INC          30
AAP           0
Others       3

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit poll also asked about the voting intentions of a BJP vs INC-AAP alliance in Gujarat with the result

BJP           99    46%
INC-AAP    83   46%

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit poll for HP gender gap

For men, INC leads 45-40
For women, BJP leads 44-43

[jaichind]

Local Gujarat media GSTV has a much closer race for Gujarat with

BJP       102
INC         72
AAP          6
Others      2

[CumbrianLefty]

India really goes big on exit polls, don't they?