India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

BJP gets 94% of all campaign contributions in Gujart

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/gujarat-too-will-have-free-electricity-from-march-cm-bhagwant-mann/1242652/

"Gujarat too will have free electricity from March: CM Bhagwant Mann"

Punjab AAP CM promises free electricity in Gujarat if AAP wins.

[jaichind]

India TV poll for Gujarat

           Seats       Vote share
BJP        117            50%
INC         59            39%
AAP          4              8%
Others      2              3%


This poll project is mostly a repeat of 2017 with some INC and minor party votes going to AAP which leads BJP to gain some seats from INC.

[jaichind]

Gujarat polls are just like in Goa earlier in the year there seem to be two sets of polls.  There are those that have AAP eating a lot into the INC vote and getting 20%+ or polls that have AAP being in the single digits.

[jaichind]

Final betting odds Gujarat assembly elections

BJP : 125-139
INC : 40-50
AAP : 6-7

[jaichind]

Phase I of the Gujarat assembly elections is in progress.  Turnout as of 3 PM is 48% which seems low compared to the 2017 total turnout of around 70%. Usually, these turnout numbers get adjusted upward.  Still, most likely this means the 2017 INC surge is not showing up although this also means the marginal and mostly pro-Modi vote is not showing up either.

[jaichind]

Phase I Gujarat turnout ended up around 5% less than it was in 2017.  This gap could close by tomorrow as updated information comes in but all things equal turnout will be lower than 2017.

[jaichind]

CSDS survey of Delhi municipal elections

AAP leads BJP by 5-7.  INC is far behind.  AAP vote looks a like the INC vote from 15 years ago.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/gujarat/gujarat-records-63-14-pc-voter-turnout-in-first-phase-of-assembly-polls-down-from-66-75-pc-in-last-election/articleshow/95934749.cms

"Gujarat records 63.14 pc voter turnout in first phase of Assembly polls, down from 66.75 pc in last election"

[jaichind]

My current guess for Gujarat
 
                  Seat         Vote share
BJP              100             46%
INC-NCP        75             39%
AAP                 5             11%

Low turnout seems to rule out a Modi or AAP wave.   BJP wants to nationalize this election while INC wants to fight this seat by seat.  Turnout seems to indicate that the election fits INC's low-key approach.  So in the end the election might just be a re-run of 2017 with AAP eating into both sides.

[jaichind]

One theme the BJP is running on this year is UCC or Uniform Civil Code.   The main target here is that different communities (read Muslims) have different laws for issues like marriage, divorce, inheritance, etc.  This fact stems from the British Raj which different civil codes for different communities.  This concept was also incorporated into the Indian Constitution as a "best practice" which does mean that in theory state governments, with support from the federal government, can change this.

The old BJS (proto-BJP) demands from the 1950s were a) Build Ram Temple in Ayodhya b) Remove Article 370 of the Constitution giving special status for J&K and c) UCC

a) and b) are mostly done so the BJP is now going to focus on UCC.  They clearly have pushed this election this year and especially Gujarat.  Expect the BJP to push this for assembly elections next year and most likely 2024 LS as well.

[jaichind]

Looking through the Gujarat assembly candidate list I concluded that out of 182 seats, INC has 6 Muslim candidates, AAP 2, and BJP 0.  Gujarat has around 10% Muslim population.

My understanding is that even anti-BJP Hindus will be reluctant to vote for a Muslim candidate ergo no party that wants to win can afford to nominate a Muslim unless you are trying to win based on the Muslim vote.  As INC's nomination strategy shows there are around 6 seats (with a heavy Muslim population) that could be won based only on the Muslim vote.

This is a type of polarisation I would think would take place in Assam where Muslims are 35% and growing.  With only 10% Muslim this level of polarisation is surprising.   The reason of course is a history of Hindu-Muslim riots.  It is not just in 2002 but back in the early 1970s, there were Hindu-Muslim riots just as if not worse than in 2002.  Geographical proximity to Pakistan also adds to the polarization although one does not see this in Rajasthan even though it is also close to Pakistan and has around a 10% Muslim population.

In addition to the riots, the 1980s INC domination of Gujuart was partly based on the Muslim vote and that was a period when the INC did field a bunch of Muslim candidates.  Reaction to that in addition to the history of riots add up to the reason.  This trend has clearly helped BJP win and maintain control of Gujarat.  BJP cannot campaign against Muslims as that would be against election law.  What BJP/Modi have done in the past is to campaign against Pakistan which everyone involved knows is a codeword for Muslims.

[jaichind]

Delhi MCD election voting is in progress.  At 4 PM turnout is around 45%.  In 2017 final turnout was around 53.6%

[jaichind]

Gujarat's second phase of voting is in progress.  At 1 PM turnout is around 34%.  Just like phase 1 it seems we are headed to lower turnout relative to 2017. 

[jaichind]

Gujarat voting phase two.  3 PM turnout is at 50.5%.  It was over 70% in 2017.  It seems turnout will fall by around 5% relative to 2017

[jaichind]

Gujarat voting in the second phase is to end soon.  As soon as it does exit polls for the Gujarat assembly, HP assembly, and Delhi MCD will come out. Counting is later in the week.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  ECI ban on exit polls lasts for another 30 min.  Then Delhi MCD exit polls come out followed by Gujarat and HP sometime later.

[jaichind]

Times Now: Top issues for Gujarat are inflation 44%, and unemployment 26%.

[jaichind]

India Today's commentators are fairly negative on INC in Gujarat.  They feel that low turnout means that the anti-BJP vote did not come out.

[jaichind]

Modi also voted in this phase of the Gujarat election
https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1599620971711037441

[jaichind]

Aaj Tak exit poll for Delhi MCD

AAP     43%
BJP      35%
INC      10%

[jaichind]

Aaj Tak exit poll for Delhi MCD

AAP     43%
BJP      35%
INC      10%

Axis My India had the same vote share with seat share being

AAP   160
BJP      80
INC       5

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP Republic TV exit poll


Gujarat

BJP     138    48.2%
INC      36    32.6%
AAP       6     15.5%

They have AAP eating only into INC vote leading to BJP landslide



HP

BJP        36            44.8%
INC        30            42.9%
AAP         0              2.9%
Others     2              9.5%

Neck-to-neck

[jaichind]

Axis My India has INC slightly ahead in HP

INC      35     44%
BJP      27     42%
Other    6

[jaichind]

NewsX exit polls

Gujarat

BJP            129             45%
INC             43             30%
AAP              9              15%
Others          1                8%




HP

BJP          36      47%
INC          31      43%
AAP           0        1%
Others       1        9%