India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[Continential]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/pawan-kalyan-jagan-mohan-reddy-ysrcp-andhra-pradesh-8215109/

"Another star rising? Jagan govt crackdown on a Pawan Kalyan protest could be a trailer"

After talks of a revival of the TDP-BJP alliance in AP, it seems BJP decided to ally with JSP to form a third front against YSRCP and TDP.    JSP backed TDP-BJP in 2014 but has since gone off on its own and led an alliance with BSP and Left parties in 2019.  It has since moved toward the BJP and there were talks of a grand alliance of TDP BJP and JSP.  But it seems it will be BJP-JSP as the third front in AP.

Didn’t Kalyan form the JSP because his brother merged his party with the Congress a decade ago? I can’t see the JSP-BJP alliance getting any seats because Gabbar Singh was made like a decade ago.

If Mahesh Babu got into politics, I could see the party he joins winning a majority but he seems to be pretty apolitical for obvious reasons.

Well either way, I expect Jagan’s Congress to win for the foreseeable future.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/pawan-kalyan-jagan-mohan-reddy-ysrcp-andhra-pradesh-8215109/

"Another star rising? Jagan govt crackdown on a Pawan Kalyan protest could be a trailer"

After talks of a revival of the TDP-BJP alliance in AP, it seems BJP decided to ally with JSP to form a third front against YSRCP and TDP.    JSP backed TDP-BJP in 2014 but has since gone off on its own and led an alliance with BSP and Left parties in 2019.  It has since moved toward the BJP and there were talks of a grand alliance of TDP BJP and JSP.  But it seems it will be BJP-JSP as the third front in AP.

Didn’t Kalyan form the JSP because his brother merged his party with the Congress a decade ago? I can’t see the JSP-BJP alliance getting any seats because Gabbar Singh was made like a decade ago.

If Mahesh Babu got into politics, I could see the party he joins winning a majority but he seems to be pretty apolitical for obvious reasons.

Well either way, I expect Jagan’s Congress to win for the foreseeable future.

Correct.   Pawan Kalyan and his more famous brother Chiranjeevi are famous actors in AP.  They are from the numerous agriculture lower Kapu caste that is weak politically.  In 2008 Chiranjeevi along with his brother formed the PRP with great fanfare to push for Kapu caste interest.  PRP did fairly well in 2009 and most likely cut into the anti-INC vote from the TDP to throw both the LS and assembly elections to INC.  Then in 2011 Chiranjeevi merged PRP into INC which is pretty much jumping onto a bandwagon just as it is going off a cliff a couple of years later.  Pawan Kalyan who opposed this move formed JSP and backed TDP-BJP in 2014.

Given the history of anti-incumbency in AP, I am not sure YSRCP will win in 2024.  I view it as tossup between YSRCP and TDP at this stage.

[Continential]

Given the history of anti-incumbency in AP, I am not sure YSRCP will win in 2024.  I view it as tossup between YSRCP and TDP at this stage.

Well when I was in AP this summer, I saw Jagan's face and the YSRCP banner everywhere. Government trucks, ambulances, shops, and I even saw a Jagan sign with Krishna near a temple which I found to be funny since his family is Christian while I saw barely anything for the TDP and my grandparents are a block away from their local area party office/headquarters. Perhaps this is because AP is still pretty far away from election time and Jagan is the one in power so his face can be everywhere but it feels like they are more energized.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/congress-president-will-decide-my-role-rahul-gandhi-101666201871589.html

"Congress president will decide my role: Rahul Gandhi"

One of the funniest statements I have heard in a while.

[jaichind]

Given the history of anti-incumbency in AP, I am not sure YSRCP will win in 2024.  I view it as tossup between YSRCP and TDP at this stage.

Well when I was in AP this summer, I saw Jagan's face and the YSRCP banner everywhere. Government trucks, ambulances, shops, and I even saw a Jagan sign with Krishna near a temple which I found to be funny since his family is Christian while I saw barely anything for the TDP and my grandparents are a block away from their local area party office/headquarters. Perhaps this is because AP is still pretty far away from election time and Jagan is the one in power so his face can be everywhere but it feels like they are more energized.

That is good info to know.  I am merely going by the historical fact that anti-incumbency tends to creep up in the last year before the election.  In 2002 it was "obvious" that TDP-BJP will win in 2004 but it the YSR wave led INC to victory.  In 2017 TDP still looked pretty strong but was crushed in 2019 by YRSCP.  I think we will know more about how strong YSRCP really is in 2023 when we get closer to the election.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, it seems INC NCP and BTP will have an alliance.  Such alliances were announced in previous election cycles but due to differences over seat distribution they end up being tactical (like NCP in 2012 and 2007, and BTP in 2017) or none at all (NCP in 2017 and 2002).  The devil will be in the details.  BTP has some pockets of strength and NCP is good for 1%-1.5% of the vote so building an alliance with them without provoking rebellion can add a few seats that INC can take away from BJP.

[jaichind]

HP assembly election schedule will be Nov 12 with counting Dec 8.  Gujarat's date is unknown and will likely be two phases in Late Nov.  The desire for counting of both elections to be on the same day explains the large time gap between when HP votes and when HP counting takes place.

[jaichind]

% of the Indian population that is pure vegetarian is surprisingly low.  It seems to be mostly North Central Western Upper Caste Hindus.  Hinduism in the East and the South does not involve being vegetarian it seems.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll survey on HP has it neck-to-neck

BJP      34
INC      32
Others    2

[jaichind]

A hypothetical map: What if every house in India lights a lamp on Deepavali?


Goes to show the heavy population concentration in the Ganges River Valley which in turn seems to map to the Gupta Empire



And if you add in the highly populated areas of Bangladesh (Ganges River Valley) and Pakistan (Indus River Valley) it pretty much adds up to Maurya under Chandragupta

[jaichind]

HP candidate list is mostly out.  Observations

1) BJP clearly trying to beat anti-incumbency by dropping a bunch of sitting MLAs or shifting them around.
2) BJP has imported 2 INC MLAs and 1 INC rebel MLA which is fairly small and shows the level of polarization of BJP and INC that they could not get more INC defections.
3) AAP list is a bunch of mostly nobodies except for a former BJP MLA.  I think APP will struggle to get above 5%
4) INC renominating all sitting MLAs except for the couple that defected from BJP.
5) Some BJP 2017 second-place finishers are renominated but a lot of INC 2017 second-place finishers are renominated.  It seems INC is banking on keeping its core vote intact and waiting for anti-incumbency to give it a victory.  It is not aggressive but history tells us that this works most of the time
6) Given BJP dropped a bunch of sitting MLAs as well as importing a few INC MLAs there is a large-scale rebellion in the BJP.  BJP has a day or two to try to get some of the rebels to back down.  The scale of rebellion in the BJP is somewhat above average in HP elections as an incumbent party but not fatal in my view.
7) Former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal who unexpectedly lost his seat in 2017 losing his chance to become the BJP CM again was not renominated due to age.  His son who is a sitting MP was not nominated for his place which pretty much means that for sure the BJP is going with sitting CM Jai Ram Thakur as its CM candidate.  It is clear that Prem Kumar Dhumal and his clan are not happy with this development and could end up being passive in their support of the BJP campaign.
8 ) INC has its share of rebels but most of them are not as consequential as the BJP rebels

The funniest of the BJP rebellions is
https://thenewzradar.com/family-drama-unfolds-in-himachals-dharampur-assembly-area/

"Family drama unfolds in Himachal’s Dharampur assembly area"

The sitting BJP MLA is not nominated but the BJP decides to go with his son.  His daughter who is the head of the BJP Women's wing in HP was expecting to get the ticket and decided to rebel against her father and brother and will run as a BJP rebel against her brother.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/bjp-going-into-himachal-pradesh-polls-without-cm-face-1156204.html

"BJP going into Himachal Pradesh polls without CM face"

This is a snub at BJP CM Jai Ram Thakur but most likely done to placate former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal and his faction.  Former BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal's son Anurag Thakur is currently a MP but for sure is looking to try to become CM if the BJP wins.  Not having an official CM face is a way to avoid rebellions.
 

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi says that twitter has been working with Modi to block new subscribers for his twitter account.

[jaichind]

Still no date for the Gujarat assembly elections.  I have to assume it has to be late Nov at the latest since I would still assume they want the counting day to be the same as the HP election counting day which is Dec 8th.

[jaichind]

Karnataka TV poll for 2023 Karnataka assembly elections

BJP     105
INC      88
JS(S)    29
Others    2

Which is identical to 2018 with INC a bit stronger and JD(S) a bit weaker.  Most likely underestimates INC.

[jaichind]

Asianet News Network poll for Gujarat assembly elections

BJP       138     48%
INC        33      31%
AAP        10      16%

It seems part of the 2017 INC vote base is going over to AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote and leading to a BJP landslide where the BJP vote was left intact from 2017.  The seat distribution seems to indicate the INC->AAP move is uneven with large INC->AAP shifts in urban areas and a lot less in rural areas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Asianet News Network poll for Gujarat assembly elections

BJP       138     48%
INC        33      31%
AAP        10      16%

It seems part of the 2017 INC vote base is going over to AAP splitting the anti-BJP vote and leading to a BJP landslide where the BJP vote was left intact from 2017.  The seat distribution seems to indicate the INC->AAP move is uneven with large INC->AAP shifts in urban areas and a lot less in rural areas.

It does seem like many of the Urban Rural trends that have taken place in the west are starting to take place in India as well. Now Urban areas are still to the right of rural areas but the gap between them is much smaller than it used to be and by the end of the decade rurals might be to the right of urban areas too

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/several-feared-injured-after-cable-bridge-collapses-in-gujarat-news-agency-ani-3474558

"​91 Killed As Gujarat Bridge Collapses Week After Renovation"

Very bad timing for Gujarat BJP.

[Continential]

Rahul Gandhi claims that there is no chance of an alliance between the Congress and the TRS and he claimed for some reason that the Congress will win in Gujarat.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Lok Poll poll for Gujarat

BJP     112
INC      61
NCP       1  (INC ally)
BTP        1  (INC ally)
AAP       4
Others   3

If Lok Poll has INC losing seats relative to 2017 and AAP gaining 4 seats then for sure INC will lose seats this year and the AAP surge will not be as significant as the hype, it is real.

[jaichind]

Two by-elections coming up in Bihar where RJD is most likely going to win over BJP with support from their partner JD(U).  The main problem for JD(U) is that if RJD wins those two seats then the RJD bloc can get a majority on its own without JD(U).  This could create tension in the RJD-JD(U) alliance.  If 2024 looks like another Modi wave look for Nitish Kumar to do another flip-flop to go back to BJP sometime in 2023 assuming RJD starts to assert its dominance over JD(U) in the ruling alliance.

[jaichind]

Gujarat assembly election schedule announced.  It will be 2 phases, one Dec 1st and one Dec 5th.  Counting will be Dec 8th which is the same as HP.  I suspect that exit polls for HP and Gujarat would come out on Dec 5th.

[jaichind]

CSDS survey on Gujarat

BJP state government is viewed as corrupt and getting worse


Rising prices are a concern


But a large number of people believe that BJP staying in power is good for the state given that BJP is in power at the federal level


Current BJP CM Bhupendrabhai Patel, Modi, and APP leader Arvind Kejriwal are favored to be CM.   Former BJP CM Vijay Rupani is 4th.  INC leader Jagdish Thakor is nowhere in the picture.  Very bad sign for INC.

[jaichind]

Zee poll for Gujarat

         Seat      Vote share
BJP      131         50.0%
INC       47          35.3%
AAP        2            8.9%

 
Muslims :
BJP : 26%, INC : 49%, AAP :15%.

Adivasis :
BJP : 44%, INC :41%, AAP :12%.

OBC :
BJP : 44%, INC : 48%, AAP :2%.

Forward Caste :
BJP : 66%, INC : 22%, AAP : 8%.

Koli Patels:
BJP : 57%, INC : 26%, AAP : 10%.

Thakors :
BJP : 43%, INC : 32%, AAP ; 9%.

Patidars :
BJP : 44%, INC : 33%, AAP : 7%.

Others :
BJP : 68%, INC :25%, AAP : 3%


Looks like INC losing its base to AAP across the board but gaining some OBC votes from BJP. BJP gains some Muslim votes from INC.  BJP has no loss of its Upper Caste base to AAP and gaining back Patel/Patidars  votes from INC is the key to the BJP landslide.

[jaichind]

Betting markets for Gujarat and HP assembly elections

BJP at 130 in Gujarat while BJP is ahead of INC 35-25 in HP