India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

ECI freezes the SHS election symbol.   This is a bigger blow for SHS(U) than SHS(E).  SHS(U) was hoping to leverage the SHS symbol to project itself as the real SHS.  SHS(E) clearly wanted the symbol based on the fact that it has the larger section of the SHS MPs and MLA but in the end, ECI froze the symbol.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/rahul-gandhi-bharat-jodo-yatra-bjp-karnataka-congress-8194408/

"Rahul Yatra: BJP in a huddle in Karnataka today, as Cong gets into stride"

Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra which is meant to start in the Deep South and then slowly head North is now in Karnataka.  It seems to be getting a pretty positive response in terms of turnout.  It seems BJP is nervous about this and reinforces the signal that the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections are likely to be won by INC.  It just seems that the BJP is not able to do well in the Karnataka assembly elections unless Yediyurappa is leading it.  In LS elections the BJP has outperformed in Karnataka since the early 2000s mostly because a lot of JD(S) voters in Karnataka tend to vote BJP in LS elections to stop INC at the national level.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/roads-of-up-to-be-made-better-than-america-before-2024-nitin-gadkari-3414709

""Roads Of UP To Be Made Better Than America Before 2024": Nitin Gadkari"

As bad as some of the roads are in parts of the USA this statement is just astounding.  Nitin Gadkari is getting off his game since he was surprisingly ousted by his rival BJP PM Modi from the BJP parliamentary board where I guess Modi got tired of having a token opposition in the BJP's top body.

[jaichind]

The upcoming  Marathi-speaking Andheri East assembly by-election in Maharashtra will be a good bellwether on if SHS(U) can stabilize and establish itself as the SHS.

Back in 2019 Andheri East, it was

SHS           44.0% (backed by BJP)
BJP rebel    32.1%
INC            19.6% (backed by NCP)
VBA             3.0% (Dalit-Muslim)

The SHS MLA passed away before the SHS civil war.  SHS(U) will run the widow of the 2019 winner and has INC-NCP support.  The BJP will run its 2019 rebel with SHS(E) support.

SHS(U) has to win this by-election if it wants to project itself as the real SHS.  SHS(E) backing BJP already plays into the SHS(U) narrative that it is a puppet of the BJP.  If SHS(U) cannot win with this and the sympathy factor then I suspect SHS(E) will eventually eat up SHS(U).

[jaichind]

https://m.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/mulayam-singh-yadav-dies-at-82-439925

"Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav dies at 82"

End of an era. He political rise in the mid to late 1980s symblized the rise of upper OBC politics.

[jaichind]

https://www.opindia.com/2022/10/uddhav-thackeray-mashaal-poll-symbol-eknath-shinde/

"Shiv Sena vs Shiv Sena: Uddhav camp gets ‘mashaal’ as poll symbol, Eknath Shinde faction told to submit fresh options"

SHS(U) will be called Shiv Sena(Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) or SHS(U) and will get the "mashaal" symbol


SHS(E) will be called Balasahebchi Shiv Sena or BSHS.  Its symbol is still being negotiated.

[jaichind]

C-Voter HP poll

           Seats       Vote share
BJP        42             46.0%
INC        24             35.2%
APP         0               6.3%
Others     2             12.5%



The main problem here is that in 2017 BJP beat INC 44-21 in seats and 49.2% to 42.1% in vote share.  I do not know why BJP will lose seats when it gets a swing from INC.  The only way is massive anti-BJP tactical voting between the INC and AAP vote bases.

[jaichind]

BJP’s campaign song for HP.

Mostly Modi = Hinduism = BJP.  BJP CM Jai Ram Thakur does make appearances but mostly shows up as a subordinate to Modi.   The BJP campaign clearly will be Modi Modi Modi.
https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1581272554827763712

[jaichind]

Times Now poll for Gujarat has an AAP surge at the expense of INC giving the BJP a landslide victory

              Seats     Vote share
BJP          128         48%
INC           31          21%
AAP           20          24%
Others         3            7%



Frankly, if these were the vote share the BJP should win 150+ seats.  This poll most likely assumes significant anti-BJP tactical voting between INC and AAP voters

Overall I do not buy it.  This poll reminds me of those Goa polls in late 2021 and early 2022 which an AAP vote share lead over INC when it ended up being vaporware.

[jaichind]

Times Now poll for HP

              Seats     Vote Share
BJP           40           47%
INC           27           40%
AAP            0             6%
Others        1             7%



Looks similar to the C-Voter poll in terms of seats but a much more reasonable vote share given the seat count.

[jaichind]

In HP it seems for some seats the BJP will hold primaries of party members to select its candidate.  This will work against INC defectors that joined BJP to run for BJP in 2022.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mns-requests-bjp-not-to-contest-against-shiv-sena-candidate-in-andheri-east-assembly-by-election/articleshow/94897213.cms

"MNS requests BJP not to contest against Shiv Sena candidate in Andheri East assembly by-election"

It seems MNS will back SHS(U) in the Andheri East assembly by-election in Maharashtra.  They might have no choice.  The by-election seems to be becoming a Marathi consolidation behind SHS(U) versus Gujarati-North Indian consolidation behind BJP.  MNS which relies on the Marathi vote cannot be in such a situation back BJP.

So now we have a situation where INC NCP AIMIM CPI-CPM and MNS are all going to back SHS(U) against BJP backed by BSHS.  This election will become a risk for BSHS where backing BJP might lose the Marathi vote to SHS(U).  BJP gains by consolidating its base with Gujarati and North Indian vote.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/nagpur/maha-blow-to-bjp-as-congress-sweeps-panchayat-samiti-polls-in-nagpur-8212571/

"Maha: Blow to BJP as Congress sweeps Panchayat Samiti polls in Nagpur"

Local elections in Maharashtra's Nagpur which was viewed as a stronghold of the BJP.   RSS's headquarters is in Nagpur.   This is part of the political territory of Modi's de facto rival Nitin Gadkari.    Nitin Gadkari was moved out of the BJP Parliamentary board recently so this result might be  Nitin Gadkari's revenge on Modi.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-maharashtra-thane-palghar-pune-navi-mumbai-weather-covid-cases-rain-monsoon-dengue-eknath-shinde-uddhav-thackeray-news-live-updates-17-october-2022/liveblog/94905212.cms

"Mumbai News LIVE Updates: BJP withdaws candidate from Andheri East bypoll"

Under the pressure of Marathi consolidation behind SHS(U), BJP withdraws its candidate in the Andheri East by-election.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat election results so far (604 out of 1165 declared)

Tiny MVA lead over NDA

NDA      209
  BJP        136
  BSHS       73

MVA     223
  SHS(U)    89
  NCP         72
  INC          62

Others  172

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat election results so far (855 out of 1165 declared)

Tiny MVA lead over NDA

NDA      312
  BJP        213
  BSHS       99

MVA     318
  INC        122
  SHS(U)   111
  NCP         85
 
Others  225

The two SHS factions both are doing fairly well given the rural lean of these elections.  I suspect their allies are doing more to transfer votes to them to help them prove that they are the "real SHS."  As it is the two SHS factions seem evenly matched.

[jaichind]

INC Prez election in progress.

Sonia Gandhi casting her ballot


Gandhi clan backed Mallikarjun Kharge is expected to edge out Shashi Tharoor

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat election results so far (1050 out of 1165 declared)

Significant MVA lead over NDA.  INC and SHS(U) did fairly well given the rural lean of these elections.  SHS(U) ahead of BSHS in the battle of "who is the real SHS"

NDA      352
  BJP        239
  BSHS    113

MVA     457
  NCP        155
  SHS(U)   153
  INC        149
 
Others  241

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-maharashtra-thane-palghar-pune-navi-mumbai-weather-covid-cases-rain-monsoon-dengue-eknath-shinde-uddhav-thackeray-news-live-updates-17-october-2022/liveblog/94905212.cms

"Mumbai News LIVE Updates: BJP withdaws candidate from Andheri East bypoll"

Under the pressure of Marathi consolidation behind SHS(U), BJP withdraws its candidate in the Andheri East by-election.

It seems a local pollster had SHS(U) ahead of BJP 46-28 as part of the Marathi consolidation behind SHS(U).  So it seems wise for BJP to drop out and not get humiliated.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat election results (all done)

Significant MVA lead over NDA.  INC and SHS(U) did fairly well given the rural lean of these elections.  SHS(U) ahead of BSHS in the battle of "who is the real SHS"

NDA      357
  BJP        244
  BSHS    113

MVA     464
  NCP        157
  SHS(U)   155
  INC        152
 
Others  258

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/congress-presidential-polls-live-updates-voting-begins-in-kharge-vs-tharoor-contest-442116

"Kharge vs Tharoor: About 96 per cent turnout in Congress presidential polls; no adverse incident reported"

96% turnout of INC party delegates (around 9900 of them) for INC Party Prez.  The counting will be tomorrow.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/pawan-kalyan-jagan-mohan-reddy-ysrcp-andhra-pradesh-8215109/

"Another star rising? Jagan govt crackdown on a Pawan Kalyan protest could be a trailer"

After talks of a revival of the TDP-BJP alliance in AP, it seems BJP decided to ally with JSP to form a third front against YSRCP and TDP.    JSP backed TDP-BJP in 2014 but has since gone off on its own and led an alliance with BSP and Left parties in 2019.  It has since moved toward the BJP and there were talks of a grand alliance of TDP BJP and JSP.  But it seems it will be BJP-JSP as the third front in AP.

[jaichind]

INC Prez election results

Mallikarjun Kharge- 7897 Votes.
Shashi Tharoor- 1072 Votes

[jaichind]

Looks like Rahul Gandhi has stopped shaving since he has been on his multi-month Bharat Jodo Yatra where he will walk from Deep South India all the way to the North

[jaichind]

The latest meeting of the BJP Parliamentary board (which is really BJP's politburo)

Modi and BJP Prez J. P. Nadda sit at the center. But first on the Right closest to them is former BJP Karnataka CM Yediyurappa.

Yediyurappa was always fairly independent and a thorn in the side of the BJP High Command for years leading to his being pushed out last year.  But with the BJP clearly in trouble in Karnataka for assembly elections next year the BJP high command is doing everything possible to butter him out to make sure he goes all out to help BJP next year.