India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
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Author Topic: India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec  (Read 28353 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #625 on: August 25, 2022, 05:31:48 AM »

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-mining-lease-case-election-commission-assembly-membership-cancelled-live-updates-bjp-jmm-governor-2022-08-25-802854

"Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren may get disqualified from Assembly, Governor to announce EC report shortly"

Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren might be forced to resign due to corruption charges. If he goes it is not clear if the JMM-INC-RJD government will hold and not fall apart with different MLAs defecting to BJP and BJP forming the government especially when JMM does not have a backup leader in place that can take over.
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jaichind
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« Reply #626 on: August 25, 2022, 03:03:35 PM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ec-recommends-disqualification-of-jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-8111870/

"Mining lease: EC recommends disqualification of Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren as MLA"

ECI recommends disqualification of  Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren as MLA.  If the pro-BJP governor executes on this recommendation Hemant Soren can stay as CM but will need to find a way back into being a MLA in 6 months.

In the meantime, the BJP is demanding a midterm election in which they must feel BJP-AJSU will win over JMM-INC-RJD.
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jaichind
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« Reply #627 on: August 26, 2022, 02:12:59 PM »

It seems Jharkhand JMM and INC are likely to shift their MLAs to INC-ruled Chhattisgarh since they now expect a BJP attempt to poach to form a BJP government if Hemant Soren is disqualified as a MLA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #628 on: August 26, 2022, 02:49:18 PM »

It seems the BJP got JMM CM Hemant Soren on a technicality.  Hemant Soren owns the mining rights to a small (less than 1 acre) mining area which he got in 2014 and now his government just extended the rights which in theory violates the law.  Of course in reality Hemant Soren is guilty as a lot of mining rights have been given to all sorts of shell companies associated with his wife but that will take years to prove.  The BJP decided to go after the one that is easy to prove but really is an oversight by Hemant Soren.

Now, in theory, if Hemant Soren is removed as MLA he can still stay CM and recontest for his seat within 6 months and come back as a MLA and stay CM the whole time.  The pro-BJP governor is taking his time to implement what ECI has advised exactly, in my view, to try to come up with some legal argument to bar Hemant Soren to be able to continue as CM or not being able to re-contest or both.
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jaichind
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« Reply #629 on: August 26, 2022, 02:54:01 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jharkhand-congress-mlas-caught-cash-bengal-arrested-1982085-2022-07-31

"3 Jharkhand Congress MLAs who were caught with cash in Bengal arrested"

Back in late July, 3 Jharkhand  MLAs were caught in WB with a large amount of cash.  This could be the tip of the iceberg of the BJP's operation to buy INC MLAs ahead of the expected political crisis in Jharkhand.
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jaichind
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« Reply #630 on: August 27, 2022, 02:42:55 PM »

Times Now poll of Gujarat assembly elections

BJP    121
INC     43
AAP     16
Others   2

This sort of poll result indicates that BJP most likely lost vote share relative to the 2017 results and that it is only gaining seats due to the split of the anti-BJP vote toward the AAP.  It shows that AAP is eating into the BJP vote as well as the INC vote.   I suspect this poll is overestimating AAP and underestimating INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #631 on: August 28, 2022, 06:27:56 AM »

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #632 on: August 28, 2022, 08:20:05 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2022, 08:25:13 AM by jaichind »

Senior INC leader Ghulam Nabi Azad who was the CM of J&K as part of an INC-PDP government from 2005-2008 and then the leader of the Opposition in RS from 2014-2021 quits INC.

His letter of resignation to Sonia Gandhi is pretty funny.  It is a long rambling letter which in the end mostly reads as:

When Sonia Gandhi was in charge and took his advice that is a wise leader takes council from trusted party advisers.

When Rahul Gandhi is in charge and has his own circle of advisers then is a poor leader that has his own coterie of sycophants.






 

While Ghulam Nabi Azad complains about how the INC operates he is not wrong but his real issue is he is no longer an insider.
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jaichind
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« Reply #633 on: August 28, 2022, 11:00:06 AM »

Lok Poll for Gujarat

BJP     122
INC      53
AAP        2
NCP        1
BTP        1
OTH        3

If NCP and BTP win a seat each I figure they are part of an alliance with INC.
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xelas81
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« Reply #634 on: August 28, 2022, 11:06:35 AM »

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 

So who is most likely to became next INC president and will they have real influence over the party?
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jaichind
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« Reply #635 on: August 28, 2022, 11:10:29 AM »

INC Prez election will be Oct 17 after many delays in hopes that Rahul Gandhi can be talked into running.  It seems Rahul Gandhi has categorically ruled out running so now the election will be Oct 17 and the INC will have its first non-Gandhi Prez since 1998. 

So who is most likely to became next INC president and will they have real influence over the party?

I do not know who would want to run only to be a puppet of the Gandhi clan. Worse the Prez will caught in the crossfire between those who are aligned with Sonia Gandhi and those who are aligned with Rahul Gandhi. 

Either it will be an ultra-lightweight who is taking the job to be a puppet or it would be a real heavyweight that can resist the Gandhis.  Sachin Pilot from  Rajasthan comes to mind as a possible candidate in the second category.
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jaichind
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« Reply #636 on: August 28, 2022, 11:41:27 AM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/union-minister-nitin-gadkari-addresses-entrepreneur-bjp-parliamentary-panel-1993477-2022-08-28

"One should never indulge in use and throw, says Gadkari days after being dropped from BJP parliamentary board"

Modi's de facto rival with the BJP Nitin Gadkari takes a shot at Modi by complaining about "use and throw" after being removed from the BJP parliamentary board.  He also talked about Richard Nixon saying "that a man is not finished when he is defeated but is finished when he quits."

His only hope for a comeback is if the BJP receives a setback in the 2024 LS elections and looking at the continued INC implosion this seems unlikely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #637 on: August 30, 2022, 07:17:47 AM »

Latest INC CWC where the Gandhi clan attended remotely they were all mums on their views on the upcoming INC Prez election.  It seems within the next month the Gandhi clan will make a call on if they think INC will do well in the upcoming assembly elections (flip HP and get credible result in Gujarat later in 2022, flip MP, flip Karnataka in 2023, avoid landslide defeat in Rajasthan, keep Chhattisgarh in 2023 .)  If they think such a positive outcome is possible then Rahul Gandhi will run in the upcoming INC Prez election.  If they think this is not possible then it make sense to put in a puppet to take the fall if positive results are not achieved.

As for who Gandhi clan have in mind to install as INC Prez if they make the call that Rahul Gandhi will not contest it will most likely be Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot.  They could kill two birds with one stone.  Ashok Gehlot is fairly old and have high enough stature that he will not be viewed as a puppet but most likely will be easier to control.  Also this frees up Sachin Pilot to become Rajasthan  CM to make sure he does not rebel.   As mentioned before if the goal is a revamp of INC  Sachin Pilot is a much better choice but he will not be easy for the Gandhi clan to control and he could eventually sideline the Gandhi clan if he can achieve some electoral success.   In the meantime  Ashok Gehlot has rejected any assertions that he will run and indicated that he continues to support Rahul Gandhi to be INC Prez.

Kerala MP Shashi Tharoor it seems could enter the race most likely as the sacrificial opposition candidate to whatever the Gandhi clan comes up with.   Shashi Tharoor  is a well spoken liberal that is the favorite of the pro-Western liberal English language media  will be the darling of the Western liberal media as the leader India needs if he becomes leader of INC.  Main problem is he will not add 1 vote to INC in the Indo-Aryan India in the North as INC Prez.
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jaichind
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« Reply #638 on: August 31, 2022, 04:18:52 AM »

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/politics/back-in-the-nda-fold-chandrababu-naidus-tdp-could-rejoin-alliance-bjp-mulls-move-articleshow.html

"Back In The NDA Fold? Chandrababu Naidu's TDP Could Rejoin Alliance, BJP Mulls Move"

In AP it seems the TDP-BJP alliance might be back on again.  TDP-BJP had an alliance from 1999-2004 but was broken after the alliance was defeated by INC in 2004.  In 2014 TDP-BJP formed an alliance to break back the rising YSRCP but was broken in 2018 as TDP shifted to a pro-INC position and formed an alliance with INC in Telangana.  Now for the 2024 LS election TDP sees a chance at beating YSRCP if they rope in BJP.  On paper, TDP is still an INC ally in Telangana and I suspect that BJP will demand that TDP break that alliance first before BJP will ally with TDP in AP.  If such an alliance takes place it will push YSRCP toward the anti-BJP camp and solidify TRS's anti-BJP orientation in Telangana.

I think BJP is smarter not to form such an alliance.  BJP should be neutral and let YSRCP and TDP battle it out with the winner taking a pro-BJP stance on national issues in return for the flow of federal subsidies since the BJP is now the natural party of governance. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #639 on: August 31, 2022, 05:31:50 AM »

INC campaign poster in Gujarat.  With no CM face the INC falls back on the Gandhis
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jaichind
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« Reply #640 on: August 31, 2022, 05:53:35 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumars-jdu-to-withdraw-support-from-bjp-led-government-in-manipur-3300923

"​HomeAll IndiaNitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur
Nitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur"

JD(U) is most likely to end support for the BJP government in Manipur.  The NDA government has a massive majority so this makes no difference.  4 out of the 7 JD(U) MLAs were defectors anyway so it would not surprise me that most of not all JD(U) MLAs will defect to BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #641 on: September 02, 2022, 04:17:48 PM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumars-jdu-to-withdraw-support-from-bjp-led-government-in-manipur-3300923

"​HomeAll IndiaNitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur
Nitish Kumar's JDU To Withdraw Support From BJP-Led Government In Manipur"

JD(U) is most likely to end support for the BJP government in Manipur.  The NDA government has a massive majority so this makes no difference.  4 out of the 7 JD(U) MLAs were defectors anyway so it would not surprise me that most of not all JD(U) MLAs will defect to BJP.

Just like I expected 5 out of 7 JD(U) MLAs in Manipur joins BJP.   They had no connections to JD(U) anyway.  Most of them wanted to run for BJP but BJP went with someone else so they ran for JD(U) and won.  BJP was always where they wanted to end up to collect their share of the loot of being in the ruling party.
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« Reply #642 on: September 04, 2022, 01:18:42 PM »

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause
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jaichind
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« Reply #643 on: September 04, 2022, 01:48:37 PM »

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause

I think it is 100% certain INC will lose Rajasthan in 2023 and while in theory, it should hold Chhattisgarh in reality it is better than 50/50 it will lose Chhattisgarh due to INC infighting there.   As for impact, it will have to be considered with possible INC gains.  There is some chance that INC can flip HP later this year and have a credible performance in Gujarat like in 2017.  INC could also flip Karnataka in early 2023 and outperform in Tripura.  As for the late 2023 elections, INC could also flip MP.  I think if INC outperforms in those elections then the losses of  Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will not be a big deal.  If not then whoever is INC Prez will have to be out and the decline of INC could become irreversible with no real chance of recovery even after Modi moves on.
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Computer89
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« Reply #644 on: September 04, 2022, 01:54:30 PM »

I know its early but is it possible for the INC to lose Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan next year and if they do what repercussions would it cause

I think it is 100% certain INC will lose Rajasthan in 2023 and while in theory, it should hold Chhattisgarh in reality it is better than 50/50 it will lose Chhattisgarh due to INC infighting there.   As for impact, it will have to be considered with possible INC gains.  There is some chance that INC can flip HP later this year and have a credible performance in Gujarat like in 2017.  INC could also flip Karnataka in early 2023 and outperform in Tripura.  As for the late 2023 elections, INC could also flip MP.  I think if INC outperforms in those elections then the losses of  Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will not be a big deal.  If not then whoever is INC Prez will have to be out and the decline of INC could become irreversible with no real chance of recovery even after Modi moves on.

Hmm interesting, so it does seem like 2023 is a make or break year for the INC and it seems like they have to make gains elsewhere as well to have a chance of recovery in the future. It does seem like the AAP will replace the INC at some point this decade at this point and anecdotally from what I have heard from Indian politics discussion among family and family friends, they seem to think that will happen.
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jaichind
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« Reply #645 on: September 04, 2022, 02:11:34 PM »



Hmm interesting, so it does seem like 2023 is a make or break year for the INC and it seems like they have to make gains elsewhere as well to have a chance of recovery in the future. It does seem like the AAP will replace the INC at some point this decade at this point and anecdotally from what I have heard from Indian politics discussion among family and family friends, they seem to think that will happen.

I am very skeptical that AAP can emerge as a real national alternative to BJP and displace INC along the way.  AAP has not shown itself to be able to win votes in the rural Hindi heartland.  At least INC still has some prospects of doing this.   AAP was and still is an urban middle-class party in limited areas plus its Punjab outpost.   If and when INC does falter to a point where it is not really a national party I think the world will become more like the 1950s and early 1960s where the BJP, like INC in the 1950s and early 1960s, is the dominant national party and all sorts of opposition parties with national aspirations become the opposition on a state by state basis with the main difference that the BJP has a much heavier Northern lean with very little support in Draividan areas.
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jaichind
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« Reply #646 on: September 05, 2022, 08:03:31 AM »

Campaigning in Gujarat Rahul Gandhi promises $5K for the families of anyone that died of COVID-19 and free electricity for farmers as well as free electricity for 300 units of electricity for non-farmers if INC comes to power.  Look for the BJP to match this in some way.

The main problem here is Rahul Gandhi is writing political checks when he has no formal leadership role in INC.  If he is going to run around doing this he should get run for INC Prez and let the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections results be the make or break on whether the Gandhi clan should continue to lead INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #647 on: September 05, 2022, 08:08:10 AM »

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-on-two-day-visit-to-delhi-to-meet-opposition-leaders-122090500269_1.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar on two-day visit to Delhi, to meet Opposition leaders"

It seems JD(U) Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has already met with RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav to discuss the 2024 LS election strategy and now he is going to visit Rahul Gandhi to discuss the 2024 election strategy.  Just like my earlier comments this entire setup is absurd where Rahul Gandhi is acting as INC leader but does not come out to actually take the formal title of leader and accept responsibility if things do go well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #648 on: September 05, 2022, 09:22:44 AM »

https://theprint.in/politics/bjp-shinde-camp-wants-a-thackeray-in-its-corner-to-wear-out-another-takes-to-ganpati-diplomacy/1113905/

"BJP-Shinde camp wants a Thackeray in its corner to wear out another, takes to Ganpati diplomacy"

Upcoming civic polls in Maharastra, especially the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation,  will be a make or break on which SHS faction is the "real SHS".

With the SHS(Uddhav Thackeray) most likely going with an alliance with INC-NCP to take on BJP-SHS(Shinde), SHS(Shinde) CM Eknath Shinde has visited Raj Thackeray hoping for some tactic alliance with NMS and mitigate the "Thackeray" name advantage that SHS(Uddhav Thackeray) will clearly have.

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jaichind
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« Reply #649 on: September 05, 2022, 10:40:56 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/jharkhand-majority-test-live-updates-hemant-sorens-majority-test-today-amid-jharkhand-crisis-3316229

"Highlights: Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren Wins Majority Test With 48 Votes"

As the Jharkhand political crisis drags on JMM CM Hemant Soren called a VONC as a show of strength by having all UPA MLA vote for it to show that the UPA alliance will not be broken even if he is removed as a MLA.
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