India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

[omar04]

Likely map of next reapportionment in 2031.  The last reapportionment was in 1971 which was paused to encourage states to pursue birth control policies and not worry about losing political influence



The trend is clear.  Massive gains for Hindi states and big losses for Dravidian states.  Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states also lose ground except for Gujarat.  Note that in Hindi states Upper caste heavy Uttarakhand and HP also lose ground which shows the Hindi state surge is mostly driven by OBC and Dalits. 

These numbers are very good news for BJP and very bad news for INC.  On the flip side, this assumes that post-Modi the BJP can continue its hold over Hindi OBC and Dalit voters and not revert back to a Hindi upper caste party.

 Note the biggest gains are in low-income states and the biggest losses are in high-income states.  This means after 2031 the median MP will be represented by a lower-income voter than before.  This means medium-term redistributive populist policies will continue to be the order of the day be it from BJP INC or some other formation.

LS could also be expanded after the seat freeze ends in 2026. Reportedly the new building will have 888 seats for the LS and 552 for the upper house.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/at-bjp-strategy-meet-on-bihar-plans-for-rally-united-lok-janshakti-party-3260107

"At BJP Strategy Meet on Bihar, Plans For Rally, United Lok Janshakti Party"

Sources said the BJP's core group is toying with the idea of bringing together the two factions of the LJP to increase its strength.

This is exactly as I have predicted. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .
 

One memorable story on this topic was from my first trip to India.  I went to visit some of the old Rajput fortresses in Rajasthan.  The tour guide spoke to us about how the fortress was besieged by Moghal forces during one of the many Moghal-Rajput wars.  During his talk, he assuming we knew nothing about Indian history as foreigners, referred to the Moghul Emperor as "the King of Pakistan."  My reaction was "wow, not only do you reject the Moghul empire as part of Indian history you actually hand over any legacy historical accomplishment of the Moghal empire over to Pakistan.  If I was an Indian, even if I hated the Moghal empire I would think twice about handing over the legacy of the Moghul Empire over to Pakistan which I know would be glad to monopolize such a legacy"

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

[randomusername]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?

[jaichind]

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?

The argument against Moghul Empire being Indian is that the language of administration was Persian and the entire government and military organization were along Persian and Turkic lines.  During the entire period of Moghul rule, the empire heavily imported Persians, Turks, and Afghans to come to serve in government and military mostly because the political and military organization doctrines of the Moghuls were similar or the same as the states their immigrants came from.

Just to be clear there are arguments for it as well but just making the argument against it.

Within the BJP ecosystem, there are some ideas by "liberal" BJP circles that the Moghul Empire is partially Indian.  Their delineation is the reign of Aurangzeb where they view Moghul rule under Aurangzeb as foreign while his more liberal predecessors like Akbar could be considered partially Indian.  These "liberal" BJP thinkers have a soft spot for Aurangzeb's rival Dara Shikoh which they viewed as much more open to Indian/Hindu traditions and ideas.  Many of them often lament why it was not Dara Shikoh that defeated Aurangzeb in their fratricidal civil war as opposed to the other way around.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?

Oh I agree that they had some positive contributions as well but so did the British Raj and yes I happen to love Gulab Jamun and Samosas but I would say the debate more centers around : Were the Mughals Indian or were they a Colonial Power" and I would go towards saying they were a Colonial Power.

I would disagree with efforts to wipe them from history books though as even if they were colonial powers they are still part of your history.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/big-win-ops-madras-hc-nullifies-eps-appointment-interim-aiadmk-gen-secy-166920

"Big win for OPS, Madras HC nullifies EPS appointment as interim AIADMK Gen Secy"

A win for OPS in the AIADMK civil war where the Madras High Court stays the decision to make EPS the sold leader of AIADMK and ordered a new leadership council.   In the long run, OPS will lose as there is a clear pro-EPS majority within the AIADMK organization.

Knowing this OPS responds by

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/ops-invites-eps-sasikala-and-ttv-to-join-hands-with-him-to-strengthen-aiadmk-palaniswami-rejects-truce-offer/articleshow/93637819.cms

"OPS invites EPS, Sasikala and TTV to join hands with him to join hands with him to strengthen AIADMK; Palaniswami reject truce offer"

Where EPS is pushing for an AIADMK reunification of the 3 factions (EPS OPS and Sasikala/TTV(AMMK)).  It is likely that BJP is behind this.  The only way a DMK-INC landslide victory in the 2024 LS elections in TN can be avoided is if AIADMK is reunified and allies with BJP and PMK.  The main problem is EPS distrusts both BJP and Sasikala and vice versa ergo OPS becomes the common denominator of this possible alliance.  Of course, OPS being viewed as a BJP pawn will also hurt his efforts to try to get an AIADMK reunification.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/modi-s-india-prefers-to-ignore-75th-anniversary-of-independence#xj4y7vzkg

The British left behind in 1947 a ruling class that upheld liberal norms and institutions — and, in the Hindu nationalist worldview held by the New India’s foot soldiers, was also effete, deracinated and entirely Anglicized. Being ruled by Western-educated leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first prime minister, was no better than being ruled by the British or the Mughals, rendering “independence” meaningless.

Apparently liberals are now pro colonization also lol how they use the terms "old republic" throughout this piece like Modi is the Indian version of Palpatine

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue quickly caught on what I was getting at and asking about.

Yah when this topic is brought up with family members, they do not consider the Mughal Empire to be Indian but rather a foreign power occupying India just like the British and many consider the Mughals to be worse than the British Raj as well .


 

Just curious, what part of India is your family from?

Gujarat

Interesting, the reason why I ask is that my family is originally from Bihar. Historically, most people in my family recognized the Mughal (and the British) as a part of our history. I think part of that is that Mughal culture/cuisine is more apparent than in Gujarat.

That being said the sentiment is changing.

Well we consider them part of our history but just as colonizers

Well, I think there's a bit more of a grey area than that. I won't whitewash the negatives of the Mughal empire, but I don't think people should attempt to also whitewash some of the contributions to Indian culture they brought, as well due to political interests. While the Taj Mahal and Red Fort aren't Hindu, they are uniquely Indian. The reason I also brought up cuisine was because its very obvious to see their impact. Imagine an India without Samosas or Gulab Jamun? Again, not native to India, but very uniquely Indian. It seems impossible to no matter how much they may try to remove them from textbooks https://www.firstpost.com/india/mughals-disappearing-from-textbooks-across-the-country-as-history-seems-subject-to-change-3903053.html. Is this not an attempt to go "woke"?

Oh I agree that they had some positive contributions as well but so did the British Raj and yes I happen to love Gulab Jamun and Samosas but I would say the debate more centers around : Were the Mughals Indian or were they a Colonial Power" and I would go towards saying they were a Colonial Power.

I would disagree with efforts to wipe them from history books though as even if they were colonial powers they are still part of your history.

Surely the nuanced (and nearest to the truth) answer is "yes they were a colonial power, but became over time a significantly assimilated one"? Aurangzeb's attempts to reverse that trend encountered widespread resistance, and its no coincidence Mughal power collapsed rapidly after his death.

[Continential]

As the BJP rule goes on and the South feels like it gets less representation or it isn't heard from by Delhi, I wonder if Dravidian nationalism will become a thing. IIRC, a few months ago, a DMK MP said that the DMK would revive the Tamil independence movement if it doesn't give it more automony. While this was an emptyhanded threat, I wonder if a Dravidian or at least a Tamil independence movement could become a thing.

[jaichind]

As the BJP rule goes on and the South feels like it gets less representation or it isn't heard from by Delhi, I wonder if Dravidian nationalism will become a thing. IIRC, a few months ago, a DMK MP said that the DMK would revive the Tamil independence movement if it doesn't give it more automony. While this was an emptyhanded threat, I wonder if a Dravidian or at least a Tamil independence movement could become a thing.

I think that could be on the table if there is a move by the BJP to push Hindi in TN.  In the medium run, I doubt the BJP would try something like that.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-recasts-parliamentary-board-nitin-gadkari-shivraj-singh-chouhan-dropped-bsy-lalpura-among-6-new-members-422689

"BJP recasts parliamentary board: Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan dropped; BSY, Lalpura among 6 new members"

New BJP parliamentary board (really the BJP politburo) out.   

Nitin Gadkari out - He is de facto leader of the non-Modi faction within the BJP.  Before it was to keep your friends close but your enemy closer.  I guess even that rule is out the door and Nitin Gadkari is out.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan - CM of MP.  He actually lost the 2018 MP assembly election and only returned to power in 2020 due to defections from INC.  This move seems to indicate that the BJP no longer believes Shivraj Singh Chouhan as much electoral pull and most likely will be swapped out as CM of MP even if BJP wins the 2023 MP assembly election.

BS Yediyurappa in - Former CM of Karnataka.  This move shows the BJP is nervous about the 2023 Karnataka assembly election and is eager to break their own age 75 rule to accommodate BS Yediyurappa
Sarbananda Sonowal in - Former CM of Assam.  This is a warning to Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma whose power is increasing in the Northeast and who has aspirations to be the BJP "king" of the Northeast.  This move tells Himanta Biswa Sarma not to get too cocky and that Modi-Shah has other options if he gets out of line.
Sudha Yadav in - Key OBC leader in Haryana.  A signal to Haryana non-Jat CM Manohar Lal Khattar that he better make sure he runs a tight ship to ensure a 2024 assembly election victory.  Manohar Lal Khattar led the BJP to underperforming results in the 2019 assembly election and needed INLD splinter JJP as an ally to form a majority.   Also a signal to Yadavs that the BJP is willing to fight for their votes.

[jaichind]

Surely the nuanced (and nearest to the truth) answer is "yes they were a colonial power, but became over time a significantly assimilated one"? Aurangzeb's attempts to reverse that trend encountered widespread resistance, and its no coincidence Mughal power collapsed rapidly after his death.

I always felt the Hindu nationalist assignment of  Aurangzeb as some sort of anti-Hindu Muslim fundamentalist fanatic as mapping historical patterns where they did not exist much like Marxist historians often apply class struggle in their analysis of history where it just did not exist. 

Yes,  Aurangzeb is a strict orthodox Sunni Muslim, unlike his father and grandfather.  But we have to separate  Aurangzeb the person and  Aurangzeb the politician.  Yes, Aurangzeb destroyed a bunch of Hindu temples but they were always temples associated with his political enemies.   Aurangzeb also help build and expand various Hindu temples associated with his political allies.  The fact is that  Aurangzeb was a ruthless and vindictive ruler but it was always about loyalty to Aurangzeb not Hindu vs Muslims.

What weakened the Moghul Empire was that Aurangzeb spend over two decades outside of Delhi personally leading an army of Hindus and Muslims fighting a guerilla force made up of Hindus and Muslims of the Maratha Confederacy.  The money he spent on the war and the decay of the Moghul administrative organization while was away from the capital was fatal to the Moghul Empire's future.

[jaichind]

Similar chart as LS redistricting on the population balance between the Dravidian South and the non-Upper Caste Hindu North.

[jaichind]

lok Poll for 2024 LS election

NDA      256
UPA      172
Left         5
Others  110

They do not have a state-by-state breakdown.  Overall seems too negative on NDA.  Note I suspect 1-3 of the Left 5 seats are really part of UPA alliances in TN.  Also KC (which is really KEC) and is most likely part of Left Front alliance in Kerala

[jaichind]

Based on the party breakdown number for the Lok Poll I was mostly above to reverse engineer the breakdown by state.

J&K -  JKN-INC alliance wins 3 seats over PDP in Muslim seats BJP sweeps 2 Hindu seats - same as 2019
HP, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan - BJP sweeps all seats just like 2019 (BJP splinter RLP does win 1 seats from BJP)
Haryana - Jat vote shifts away from BJP - BJP 5 INC4 INLD 1 versus a clean BJP sweep in 2019
Punjab - INC and AAP splits seats evenly - INC 6 AAP 6 SAD 1
UP - NDA 58 seats SP-RLD 19 BSP 2 INC 1 - SP-RLD eats but anti-BJP vote and cut into the BJP landslide of 2019
Bihar - JD(U) joining UPA gives it the end - UPA 29 (including 1 from CPI(ML)) BJP 11 - versus a near sweep for BJP-JD(U)-LJP in 2019
MP - BJP loses 2 seats from 2019 to make it BJP 26 INC 3
Chhattisgarh - Tribal vote shifts INC - INC 8 BJP 3 versus BJP 9 INC 2 in 2019
Jharkhand - Tribal votes shifts INC - INC-JMM 10 BJP-AJSU 4 versus BJP-AJSU 12 INC-JMM 2 in 2019
Maharashtra - SHS joins UPA alliance and fights NDA to a draw - BJP-SHS(S) 25 INC-NCP-SHS 23 versus  BJP-SHS 41 in 2019
WB - AITC sweep as anti-BJP votes shifts to AITC with AITC 32 BJP 10 versus AITC 22 BJP 18 INC 2 in 2019
Odisha - repeat of BJD 12 BJP 8 INC 1 of 2019
Karnataka - Anti-BJP vote consolidate around INC with INC 18 BJP 9 JD(S) 1 versus BJP+ 26 INC-JD(S) 2 in 2019
TN and Kerala - UPA near sweep just like in 2019 - AIADMK civil war clearly helps UPA
AP and Telangana - mostly repeat of 2019
Assam and Northeast - mostly repeat of 2019 - INC gains a seat from NPP in Meghalaya
Goa and federal districts - mostly status quo from 2019 - INC flips Lakshadweep from NCP and flips Ladakh from BJP

So this poll mostly assumes changes from 2019
1) Bihar mega alliance will work leading to NDA defeat
2) Anti-BJP vote consolidates in UP leading to gains by SP-RLD
3) Jat votes goes against BJP leading to INC gains
4) Tribal vote moves against BJP leading to INC gains in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand
5) Anti-BJP vote consolidates around INC in Karnataka
6) INC-NCP-SHS alliance works on the ground in Maharashtra  leading to a draw
7) Anti-BJP vote shifts to AITC in WB

What stays the same
1) Non-UP non-Bihar non-tribal Hindi belt  along with Modi stays loyal to Modi
2) Deep South stays anti-Modi and gives UPA near landslides just like 2019
3) Assam and NE mostly stays the same and keeps the BJP gains made there in 2019

Most of these assumptions are negative for BJP and I doubt all of them could be true at the same time

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/telangana/2022/aug/20/amit-shah-tweaks-schedule-may-meet-old-pal-chandrababu-naidu-at-rfc-2489407.html

"Amit Shah tweaks schedule, may meet 'old pal' Chandrababu Naidu at RFC"

There might be moves for the BJP and TDP to revive their alliance.  Of that will drive YSRCP over to UPA or at least a pro-UPA position.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll state-by-state breakdown

Somewhat different from my guess.  They have INC making a mini-comeback in the core Hindi heartland but not doing as well in tribal Hindi areas and Karnataka as I guessed.  INC at 3 seats in UP also points the way to the SP-RLD revival from 2019 which must be a tactical alliance with INC

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-mining-lease-case-election-commission-assembly-membership-cancelled-live-updates-bjp-jmm-governor-2022-08-25-802854

"Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren may get disqualified from Assembly, Governor to announce EC report shortly"

Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren might be forced to resign due to corruption charges. If he goes it is not clear if the JMM-INC-RJD government will hold and not fall apart with different MLAs defecting to BJP and BJP forming the government especially when JMM does not have a backup leader in place that can take over.