India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
jaichind:
My prediction of significant Indian assembly elections from Aug 2020
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=353070.msg7528770#msg7528770
Quote
My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years
2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC.
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized. WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF. Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC.
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote
2020 Bihar - Correct - and I got the dynamics and margins right
2021 WB - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 TN - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 Assam - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 Kerala - Wrong - LDF defeated UDF
2022 Punjab - Already wrong - SAD BJP alliance broke up over Farm protests and AAP is much more likely to defeat INC with SAD in a weak third place
2022 Uttarakhand - I think I will be right
2022 UP - I think I will be right
2022 HP - I think I will be right
2022 Gujarat - I suspect BJP will narrowly win then INC narrow win
jaichind:
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/punjab-assembly-polls-2022/story/bhagwant-mann-aap-cm-candidate-punjab-elections-navjot-sidhu-charanjit-channi-congress-bjp-1895853-2022-01-04
"Bhagwant Mann likely to be AAP's CM candidate for Punjab elections"
Not a surprise. AAP's Punjab head Bhagwant Mann to be AAP's CM face in upcoming elections. Bhagwant Mann was and is still a comedian that joined SAD splinter PPP back in 2011 before joining AAP in 2014 becoming a MP. Bhagwant Mann was the only AAP survivor of the 2019 LS Punjab wave. PPP has since merged into INC in 2016. Going by most polls Bhagwant Mann is now the most likely to be the next CM of Punjab after the assembly elections.
jaichind:
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/ludhiana/pms-punjab-rally-despite-covid-curbs-7705401/
"PM Modi’s Punjab rally to go ahead despite Covid-19 curbs"
This sounds a lot like early 2021 during the WB election where there were a bunch of rallies that seems to have added to the COVID-19 surge later that summer.
jaichind:
https://www.thequint.com/uttar-pradesh-elections/congress-postpones-major-rallies-in-election-bound-states-amid-omicron-scare
"Congress 'Postpones' Major Rallies in Election-Bound States Amid Omicron Scare"
jaichind:
Percentage of women saying it's okay for the husband to beat her if she goes out of the house without telling him. Note this is from 2005-2006.
The result is surprising. The smaller % is in the Hindi North but fairly high in the Dravidian South.
Historically the level of female economic independence is higher in the rice-growing South where women can effectively participate in agriculture than in the wheat-growing North where women cannot effectively participate in the agriculture economy and is a lot more dependent economically on her husband. As a result, I would have expected the reverse of these numbers by region.
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