India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://www.abplive.com/news/india/bihar-politics-cm-nitish-kumar-talked-to-congress-president-sonia-gandhi-ann-2186844

Bihar JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar to meet with INC Prez Sonia Gandhi.

Possible outcomes

1) JD(U)-RJD-INC-VIP-Left united front government

OR

2) Midterm assembly election with JD(U)-INC-HAM vs BJP vs RJD-VIP-Left

[jaichind]

With JD(U)-BJP tatal break in Bihar looking more and more likely with RJD and INC indicating support for Nitish Kumar to be CM if he breaks with BJP it seems behind the scenes the BJP and JD(U) have been maneuvering with this scenario in mind.  

In a situation where a government falls and a new one needs to be created the largest party in the assembly is given a chance to form the government first by tradition.  In the 2020 assembly elections RJD edged out BJP 75-74 to become the largest party so if JD(U)-BJP government falls then RJD will have the first chance at forming a government and not BJP.  For the BJP this is a problem as their route to power if JD(U)-BJP government falls is for BJP to take a first shot at forming a government and with money power and support from the pro-BJP governor and central government lure RJD and INC defectors to come over.  

With this in mind with JD(U)-BJP relationships getting worse in 2022 March we had

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/all-3-vip-mlas-join-bjp-in-bihar-making-it-the-largest-party-in-assembly/article65253402.ece

"All 3 VIP MLAs join BJP in Bihar making it the largest party in Assembly"

JD(U)-BJP ally VIP had all of their MLA poached by BJP to allow the BJP to become the largest party in anger VIP de facto shifts toward a pro-RJD position.

This development became a problem for Nitish Kumar if he wanted the option of breaking with the BJP and forming an alternative alliance with RJD-INC.  So with his maneuverings behind the scenes, we had this in June 2022

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/patna/bihar-four-of-five-aimim-mlas-join-rjd-single-largest-party-80-seats-7998912/

"Bihar: Four of five AIMIM MLAs join RJD, making it single-largest party again with 80 seats"

4 out of 5 AIMIM MLAs defect to join RJD making RJD the largest party again.

With this move done and seeing the BJP break Uddhav Thackeray's SHS in Maharatrasa and fearing the same will happen to him, Nitish Kumar, it seems is likely to act and dump BJP.

So in Bihar what took place last two election cycles are
a) In 2015 the voters voted for JD(U)-RJD-INC but got JD(U)-BJP
b) In 2020 the voters voted (narrowly) for JD(U)-BJP-HAM-VIP but will get JD(U)-RJD-INC-HAM-VIP-Left Front

Very similar to Australia in 2007 and 2010
a) In 2007 Australia voted for Kevin Rudd but got Julia Gillard
b) In 2010 Australia voted (narrowly) for Julia Gillard but got Kevin Rudd

In the long run, this is positive for BJP in Bihar.  In 2025 had it been JD(U)-BJP-HAM vs RJD-INC-Left Front it seems clear given anti-incumbency weighing down JD(U) that RJD-INC is likely to win.  Now in 2025 if it is JD(U)-RJD-INC-Left Front vs BJP-LJP(RV) on paper JD(U)-RJD-INC-Left Front has the edge but with anti-incumbancy weighing down on JD(U) it would not surprise me if BJP-RLJP wins.

[jaichind]

One thing that confuses me about this possible JD(U)-RJD-INC-HAM-Left Front government in Bihar is why would RJD's Tejashwi Yadav take this deal when he is in a good position to win the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.  It seems what Nitish Kumar is likely offering to Tejashwi Yadav is "support by government and in 2024 I will move into national politics by being the common Opposition PM candidate against Modi.  That clears the way for you to be CM in 2024 or lead the anti-BJP alliance in 2025 Bihar assembly elections."  Of course, this means Nitish Kumar has to get INC to stand down in the 2024 LS elections as far as the Opposition PM candidate is concerned. 

I assume this is why Nitish Kumar is meeting with Sonia Gandhi today.  What he will say to her is "2024 LS is setting up to be a Modi landslide, what do you have to lose to have me be the common opposition PM candidate with Rahul Gandhi as my deputy?  I can focus on the North while Rahul Gandhi can focus on the South"

I think whether INC takes this idea is critical to if Nitish Kumar goes ahead with dumping the BJP or staying on with BJP for now.

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/nitish-kumars-jdu-blames-chirag-paswan-for-its-debacle-in-2020-bihar-assembly-polls-ljp-leader-hits-back-2494764.html

"Nitish Kumar's JD(U) blames Chirag Paswan for its debacle in 2020 Bihar assembly polls; LJP leader hits back"

As part of the escalation in conflict in Bihar between JD(U) and BJP, the JD(U) is coming out and saying what JD(U) was thinking during and after the 2020 Bihar assembly elections: namely that Chirag Paswan's LJP was a BJP asset to run against JD(U) candidates to cut down the number of JD(U) MLAs elected which nearly produced a RJD-INC-Left Front majority.

What is not mentioned of course is Nitish Kumar already got his revenge when he split LJP between the Chirag Paswan LJP(RV) and the pro-JD(U) RLJP led by e Chirag Paswan's uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras.

LJP(RV) of course is hitting back after being openly accused of being a BJP tool to sink JD(U) in 2020 Bihar assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/national/bihar-politics-all-eyes-on-rcp-singh-as-tensions-grow-between-bjp-and-nitish-kumar-jdu-news-215029

"Bihar Politics: All Eyes On RCP Singh As Tensions Grow Between BJP And Nitish Kumar's JD(U)"

It seems the triggering point for JD(U)-BJP conflict is the exit of RCP Singh from JD(U) over the weekend.  RCP Singh was a JD(U) RS MP, a Union Minister in the Modi cabinet and was close to Nitish Kumar, serving as JD(U) Prez for 6 months back in 2021. But throughout 2021 Nitish Kumar's relationship with RCP Singh fell as RCP Singh was viewed as being getting to close to BJP.  Nitish Kumar made the call not to renominate RCP Singh as RS MP  in July leading to him needing to resign as Union Minister in the Modi cabinet.   After that JD(U) sources say that RCP Singh started to plot with BJP to launch a coup against Nitish Kumar which eventually led to him leaving JD(U) when that coup failed.

[jaichind]

It seems Nitish Kumar has spoken to Sonia Gandhi of INC as well as RJD's  Tejashwi Yadav.  It is not clear if they worked out a deal.  JD(U) RJD INC and HAM all have critical party meetings today so I guess if there is any agreement they will be announced at these party meetings.  Everything should be more clear in 24 hours.

[jaichind]

Bihar assembly seat distribution by party.  JD(U)-RJD-INC-HAM-Left Front has clear majority.  RJD is too big for BJP to break.  Only way BJP wins a assembly trial of strength is if they can break INC and JD(U).  BJP holds the Bihar speaker post so in theory the BJP speaker can help legally cover a BJP attempt to break JD(U) and INC.  But BJP needs 2/3 of JD(U) and INC caucus to defeat which seems unlikely for JD(U) while INC MLA will not defect to a losing side.

[jaichind]

It seems the inauspicious Hindu month of Kharmas will begin on August 11th and the RJD did not want to start anything in that month so Nitish Kumar has to act now or else he will have to wait until mid-Sept.

[jaichind]

It's over for JD(U)-BJP in Bihar.  Nitish Kumar announces to his MP and MLA that the BJP has been trying to split JD(U) via bribery and that he was ending the JD(U)-BJP alliance.  It seems the new setup will be JD(U)-RJD-INC-Left Front alliance.  It seems it will be Nitish Kumar as CM, RJD's  Tejashwi Yadav as DCM, and most likely an INC speaker.   As I mentioned for RJD to accept this type of deal it is clear that Nitish Kumar most likely promised that after the 2024 LS elections he will hand the CM post to  Tejashwi Yadav which in turn means the INC might have promised Nitish Kumar that they will accept him as the Opposition common PM candidate against Modi in 2024 LS election.  All this is speculation but we will see in the coming months if this is true.

Not clear if HAM will be part of it but HAM these days is a JD(U) satellite party so I have to assume they will be part of it.  RLJP which has no MLAs is pro-JD(U) and I am sure will support this new government while LJP(RV) might become BJP's main alliance partner in Bihar. 

Nitish Kumar will resign to the pro-BJP government and then all JD(U) and RJD MLAs (plus INC MLAs?) will also arrive at the governor's mansion to assert their support for Nitish Kumar as CM.  The pro-BJP governor will have very little room to maneuver at that point and will have to accept this new government.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sanjay-rathods-entry-in-eknath-shinde-cabinet-sparks-friction-in-pact-with-bjp-3238759

"Maharashtra Cabinet: Sanjay Rathod's Entry Leads To Friction As BJP Cites Suicide Case"

Maharashtra SHS(Eknath Shinde faction) CM Eknath Shinde expands cabinet.  SHS MLA Sanjay Rathod, a key defector to Eknath Shinde, was brought back to the cabinet.  In 2021 Sanjay Rathod was accused of the murder of a 23-year-old Tik Tok woman star named Pooja Chavan.  The CM Uddhav Thackeray later dropped him under pressure from the BJP.  Now he is back in a government backed by the BJP which clearly is angering the BJP.  On the flip side Eknath Shinde has to reward those that helped his rise to power.

[jaichind]

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood in each election in Bihar since the 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (LJD)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan/Chirag Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)
Mukesh Sahani(VIP)

As one can see, just about every player has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago whereas Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015. Mukesh Sahani of VIP did not become a player until 2014.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
(Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC)

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) +Mukesh Sahani(VIP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R)) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC)[WINNING FRONT]

2019 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Nitish Kumar (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)  + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)+  Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + Sharad Yadav(LJD) + INC)

2020 Assembly
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Ram Vilas Paswan/Chirag Paswan(LJP)) vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP)) vs (Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + Sharad Yadav(LJD) + INC)  {note Ram Vilas Paswan has passed away by the time elections came}

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/jitan-ram-manjhis-hindustani-awam-morcha-extends-unconditional-support-to-nitish-kumar-amid-bihar-political-strife-420418

"Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha extends unconditional support to Nitish Kumar amid Bihar political strife"

As expected HAM is also part of the new grand alliance government in Bihar.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/india/rjd-and-jdu-cant-stay-together-for-long-rljp-to-remain-a-part-of-nda-pashupati-paras-11034281.html

"RJD and JD(U) can't stay together for long, RLJP to remain a part of NDA: Pashupati Paras"

Looks like RLJP will stay in NDA.  The LJP split into LJP(RV) and RLJP  was always about Nitish Kumar cutting Chirag Paswan down to size for what LJP did to JD(U) in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections forming the pro-JD(U) RLJP and pro-BJP LJP(RV)  Now RLJP decided to stay in NDA I see no reason why there should not be a LJP reunification with LJP(RV) and RLJP merging again as long as Chirag Paswan can work out his issues with his uncle Pashupati Paras.

[jaichind]

The timing of Nitish Kumar's defection makes it clear what is going on.

It is clear after the 2020 Bihar assembly elections that in the long run after Nitish Kumar leaves the scene JD(U) will disintegrate and Bihar will become a BJP-RJD bipolar state.  So Nitish Kumar has to think about what is to become JD(U).  He can arrange for them to be eaten up by the BJP or merge into RJD.  From a historical ideological point of view, JD(U) aligns much better with RJD but Nitish Kumar is more focused on ending his political career on a high note.  His hope was that NDA nominates him as India Prez or Vice Prez in the latest round of Prez/Vice Prez elections.  But BJP chooses not to nominate Nitish Kumar.  After that Nitish Kumar, seeing that INC is very weak for the 2024 LS elections decided to jump ship over the anti-BJP side to become the Opposition PM candidate in 2024.  His chances of winning are 1 in 10 but even if it is a long shot he wants one final chance at the top job.

[jaichind]

One question would be how will this JD(U)-RJD-INC-HAM-Left Front government be viewed?  I think it will come down to law and order. RJD has a lot of connections to Yadav-based mafia groups across Bihar.  When RJD is in government the local police tend to go easy on these groups and when RJD is out of government the local police tend to crack down on these mafia groups.   If RJD getting into government leads to a revival of these Yadav-based mafia groups then both JD(U) and RJD will be discredited and BJP can look toward an anti-incumbency surge for the BJP in 2025.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bihar-jd-u-rjd-congress-realign-after-two-months-of-secret-discussions-101660071006846.html

"Bihar: JD(U), RJD, Congress realign after two months of secret discussions"

It seems JD(U), RJD and INC had been in talks for two months but RJD had insisted on the CM seat.  It was only last week that RJD gave ground on the CM seat that a breakthrough took place.

Nitish Kumar resigned already and will be sworn in for the 8th time as CM of Bihar as the head of a new alliance.  This will be the 8th time Nitish Kumar will be sworn in as CM which is a record in India even though by far he does not hold the record on time spent as CM.

In 2000 Bihar assembly election threw up a hung assembly and the pro-BJP governor sworn in BJP ally JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar as CM although he had to resign soon because he could not construct a majority.  In 2005 JD(U)-BJP won the assembly elections and Nitish Kumar was sworn in as CM.  In 2010 JD(U)-BJP again won the assembly elections and Nitish Kumar was sworn in as CM for the third time.  After the defeat in the 2014 LS elections, Nitish Kumar resigned and installed a proxy CM  Jitan Ram Manjhi but after he lost control of Jitan Ram Manjhi he removed Jitan Ram Manjhi in early 2015 to be sworn in as CM again with Jitan Ram Manjhi forming in HAM.  In the 2015 assembly elections JD(U)-RJD-INC won and Nitish Kumar was sworn in for the 5th time.  Then in 2017, Nitish Kumar dumped RJD-INC resigned as CM formed an alliance with BJP, and was sworn in as CM for the 6th time as part of a JD(U)-BJP alliance.  In 2020 JD(U)-BJP won Bihar assembly elections and Nitish Kumar was sworn in for the 7th time as CM.  In 2022 Nitish Kumar dumped BJP and resigned as CM and will now be sworn in for the 8th time as CM as part of a JD(U)-RJD-INC government.

[jaichind]

Nitish Kumar swearing-in ceremony.    This picture has 3 Bihar CMs in it.

Front left to right: Tej Pratap Yadav (older brother of Bihar DCM Tejashwi Yadav and son of former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav who is too in the hospital after a fall a month back), Rabri Dev (former Bihar CM while her husband former Bihar CM Lalu Yada was under criminal investigation and mother of Bihar DCM Tejashwi Yadav), wife of  DCM Tejashwi Yadav,  Bihar DCM Tejashwi Yadav, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi (leader of JD(U) splinter HAM and CM of Bihar in 2014-2015 while Nitish Kumar resigned to take responsibility for 2014 LS election loss, broke with Nitish Kumar to form HAM after being forced out as Bihar CM but have since been reconciled with Nitish Kumar)

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/no-polls-jammu-kashmir-this-year-ec-extends-deadline-final-electoral-roll-publication-1986037-2022-08-10

"No assembly polls in Jammu-Kashmir this year as EC defers publication of final electoral roll"

Looks like the next J&K assembly election which was supposed to be held in 2020 and was likely to be held in late 2022 will be held in 2023 due to a delay in getting the voter rolls locked down.

[jaichind]

C-voter snap poll for Bihar

Who benefits from breaking the alliance in Bihar? 
BJP                   33%
Nitish Kumar     20%
RJD                  47%

Is Nitish's decision to join hands with Tejashwi Yadav right? 
Yes                   44%
No                    56%

Who is the best CM for Bihar
Nitish Kumar     24%
BJP                  19%
Tejashwi Yadav  43% !!!

Who is the best PM
Modi                44%
Nitish Kumar    22%
Rahul Gandhi   18%


Vote for LS election

                     2019                            2024
          Vote share   Seats          Vote share  Seats
NDA        54%          39                41%         14                 
UPA        31%            1                46%          26

Looks like in Bihar there is a wave for Tejashwi Yadav to be CM and strong support for Modi to be PM which means NDA is still very competitive in Bihar in 2024 even with a massive anti-BJP alliance being formed.

It seems Nitish Kumar will have to get out of the way for Tejashwi Yadav in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections since he will lead RJD to victory no matter what, with or without JD(U).  I guess Tejashwi Yadav's appeal is that he is a new face that can rally OBC votes against the Upper castes without the baggage of jungle Raj from the days when his parents were CM of Bihar.

[jaichind]

India Today MOTN poll came out

Taking into account the new configuration in Bihar their current projection of the 2024 LS election is

NDA     286
NDA     146
Others  111


Certain state results
                       NDA   UPA
Bihar                   14     26      
Maharastra        18     30      
Karnataka           13     13     JD(S)  2
AP                      0       0     YSRCP 18 TDP 7
Telangana           6       3    TRS 7 AIMIM 1
Punjab               0       2    AAP 11
Delhi                    0       7         
WB                    7       0      AITC 35
TN                     0     39      
Rajasthan.         25     0   
Gujarat              26     0         
MP                   26       3   

It TN it seems the AIADMK split between EPS and OPS is handing a landslide victory for the DMK-INC bloc.  In Maharashtra, it seems the recent split of SHS actually helps UPA as now the SHS(Uddhav Thackeray) vote would now merge into the INC-NCP vote and actually defeat BJP-SHS(Eknath Shinde).  Other than Bihar it seems the BJP will sweep the Hindi heartland just like in 2014 and 2019.

Modi is still miles ahead as the best PM


As for who is the best BJP successor to Modi it is very close at

Interior minister Amit Shah                      25.2 (de facto Modi's main sidekick)
UP CM Yogi Adityanath                             24.1
Road minister Nitin Gadkari                      14.9 ( de facto leader of the non-Modi faction in BJP)


Just for fun.  The greatest leader in Indian history
Ashoka        44
Akbar          17
Tipu Sultan  13

[Continential]

So how could the UPA hypothetically form a government? How many seats would it (and the BJP have) in order for a possibility of a non-Modi/BJP prime minister?

[jaichind]

Just for fun.  The greatest leader in Indian history
Ashoka        44
Akbar          17
Tipu Sultan  13

BTW, I am pretty sure these results map to

Ashoka -> Conservative rural Hindus
Akbar -> Liberal urban Hindus
Tipu Sultan -> Muslims and Left Hindus

[jaichind]

So how could the UPA hypothetically form a government? How many seats would it (and the BJP have) in order for a possibility of a non-Modi/BJP prime minister?

I find it almost impossible for UPA to form a government in 2024.  At best they can force NDA seats down to a point where Modi will have given way to another BJP PM (most likely Nitin Gadkari.)  For that to take place NDA will have to be driven down to 250 seats or so and they will need YSRCP and/or BJD to form a majority.  In such a situation most likely Modi will step down as such a result can be read as a VONC in Modi.  As long as the Opposition cannot come up with a PM candidate that is viable in the Hindi heartland it will take a big series of self-goals for Modi to get himself in that kind of situation.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems Nitish Kumar is the king of splits with RLJP heading for a split.

LJP was founded by Ram Vilas Paswan as a Dalit-based JD(U) splinter after a falling out with Nitish Kumar in 2000.  Ever since then LJP has been fairly negative toward JD(U) with LJP never being on the same side as JD(U) except for the 2019 LS election when LJP won 6 MPs.  After  Ram Vilas Paswan passed away in 2000 his son Chirag Paswan took over the party and ran separately from NDA in the 2020 Bihar elections but mainly focused on running against JD(U).  As a result, JD(U) underperformed BJP in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections.  Out of revenge Nitish Kumar backed a pro-JD(U) coup on LJP after the 2020 Bihar assembly elections with  Ram Vilas Paswan's brother Pashupati Kumar Paras capturing 5 out of 6 LJP MPs and forming RLJP while the Chirag Paswan formed LJP(RV) as its own remaining MP.  Since RLJP was a JD(U) creation it was expected that it would go over to the JD(U)-RJD alliance after JD(U) defected from NDA.  But RLJP chooses to stay in NDA as RLJP leader Pashupati Kumar Paras seems to want to keep his position as minister in the central government.  Now the news came out that at least 3 out of 5 RLJP MPs will defect to RJD and very likely leave RLJP with only Pashupati Kumar Paras as its lone MP just like Chirag Paswan is the lone LJP(RV) MP.  After this, I suspect Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Kumar Paras  will merge their separate LJP factions to reunited LJP.

[jaichind]

Likely map of next reapportionment in 2031.  The last reapportionment was in 1971 which was paused to encourage states to pursue birth control policies and not worry about losing political influence



The trend is clear.  Massive gains for Hindi states and big losses for Dravidian states.  Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states also lose ground except for Gujarat.  Note that in Hindi states Upper caste heavy Uttarakhand and HP also lose ground which shows the Hindi state surge is mostly driven by OBC and Dalits. 

These numbers are very good news for BJP and very bad news for INC.  On the flip side, this assumes that post-Modi the BJP can continue its hold over Hindi OBC and Dalit voters and not revert back to a Hindi upper caste party.

 Note the biggest gains are in low-income states and the biggest losses are in high-income states.  This means after 2031 the median MP will be represented by a lower-income voter than before.  This means medium-term redistributive populist policies will continue to be the order of the day be it from BJP INC or some other formation.