India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
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Author Topic: India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec  (Read 28363 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #550 on: July 01, 2022, 07:08:37 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/west/shiv-sena-chief-whip-moves-sc-for-suspending-shinde-other-rebel-mlas-1122925.html

"Shiv Sena chief whip moves SC for suspending Shinde, other rebel MLAs"

For now, the SHS split is still real with the pro-Uddhav Thackeray SHS whip still asking that CM Shinde and other SHS rebel MLAs are expelled from SHS.

This will set up an interesting floor test where the Shinde bloc of SHS MLAs will claim they are the true SHS assembly caucus and issue a whip for pro-Uddhav Thackeray  SHS MLAs to vote for the new Shinde government while the pro-Uddhav Thackeray SHS whip will do the opposite.  I guess all this will be a big blowup and go to the courts on who is the real SHS.

In theory, the law still is on Uddhav Thackeray's side since unless the rebel SHS faction can take over the SHS organization the Uddhav Thackeray faction still is legally the real SHS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #551 on: July 01, 2022, 02:40:42 PM »

https://www.firstpost.com/india/devendra-fadnavis-missing-at-bjps-celebration-of-return-to-power-in-maharashtra-10860121.html

"Devendra Fadnavis missing at BJP's celebration of return to power in Maharashtra"

New BJP DCM and former BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis were missing at BJP's celebration party on its return to power in Maharastra.  It seems pretty clear that behind the scenes BJP high command ordered Devendra Fadnavis to give up the CM seat and then ordered him to take a demotion to become DCM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #552 on: July 02, 2022, 05:06:07 AM »

Uddhav Thackeray officially expels  Eknath Shinde from SHS.

In the meantime, Eknath Shinde's faction is waging a battle with Uddhav Thackeray to try to capture the SHS organization on the ground.
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jaichind
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« Reply #553 on: July 02, 2022, 07:20:41 AM »

One of the reasons SHS fell apart is that at its core SHS is really a mafia protection money racketeering organization.     To have the leader of SHS at the head of the Maharashtra government undercut this role of the SHS at the grassroots.  Had it been a SHS-BJP government it could have worked better since at the grassroots the BJP and SHS have a longer history of working together.  The Uddhav Thackeray-led SHS-NCP-INC lacked ideological coherence so had to fall back on effective and good governance as the way to sustain power.  But doing that just undercut the grassroots SHS mafia activities.  So in the end the government finally fell not because of NCP or INC but because middle-level SHS leaders had enough and wanted out of the alliance with NCP-INC.  Of course, now these same middle-level SHS leaders know that the SHS mafia needs a brand to continue and that brand is the Thackeray clan.  So going forward how to re-merge these splintered blocs of SHS is a key priority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #554 on: July 02, 2022, 01:34:28 PM »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/former-punjab-cm-capt-amarinder-singh-likely-to-be-named-nda-candidate-for-vice-presidents-post-408894

"Former Punjab CM Capt Amarinder Singh likely to be named NDA candidate for Vice President's post"

Former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh and now leader of BJP ally PLC is mostly likely to be named the NDA candidate for VP. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #555 on: July 03, 2022, 05:50:30 AM »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/battle-on-between-2-shiv-sena-factions-both-sides-issue-separate-whips-for-maharashtra-assembly-speakers-election/articleshow/92633458.cms

"Battle on between 2 Shiv Sena factions: Both sides issue separate whips for Maharashtra Assembly Speaker's election"

The BJP as expected won the speaker election 164-107.  The floor test for the Eknath Shinde government will be along the same lines.  The real battle will be in the courts.  The winner will get the SHS symbol and be accepted as the real SHS in the Maharashtra assembly.   The Eknath Shinde faction's main advantage is even if they lose they have the option of joining the BJP without having to run for re-election while the Uddhav Thackeray faction's main advantage is that even if they lose they have a Thackeray.
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jaichind
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« Reply #556 on: July 03, 2022, 08:33:58 AM »

The new Speaker of the  Maharashtra Assembly is BJP's Rahul Narwekar.  For a long time, he was in SHS and was close to Uddhav Thackeray's son Aaditya Thackeray.  In 2014 he wanted to run in the LS elections but was denied by SHS so he jumped to NCP to run but lost to SHS coming in third (the second place PWP finisher has also since joined BJP and was elected MLA in 2019.)  In 2019  Rahul Narwekar defected to BJP to run in the assembly elections and was elected.  Now he has been elected Speaker of the   Maharashtra Assembly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #557 on: July 03, 2022, 11:34:24 AM »

Various NCP sources say that Sharad Pawar has told the NCP leadership to get ready for a mid-term assembly election in 6 months in Maharashtra since the current SHS rebel Eknath Shinde alliance with BJP cannot last long.
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jaichind
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« Reply #558 on: July 04, 2022, 06:38:26 AM »

Former NCP DCM Ajit Pawar, nephew of NCP founder and leader  Sharad Pawar,  will become the Leader of the Opposition in Maharashtra.  Ajit Pawar has what I suspect is a record of serving as DCM with 3 different parties as CM.  From 2012-2014 he was DCM under an INC CM as part of an INC-NCP government.  Then in 2019, Ajit Pawar led a brief NCP rebellion where he led a NCP faction to form a government with the BJP where he served as DCM under BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis for a few days before his rebellion fizzled out.  He then went back to NCP and was forgiven and went on to serve under SHS CM  Uddhav Thackeray as DCM in the SHS-NCP-INC government from 2019-2022.  So he served as DCM under INC BJP and SHS.  A true record that would be hard to break.

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jaichind
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« Reply #559 on: July 04, 2022, 10:07:14 AM »

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/santosh-bangar-the-mla-who-cried-for-uddhav-thackeray-and-then-switched-sides-10867611.html

"Santosh Bangar, the MLA who cried for Uddhav Thackeray and then switched sides"

Eknath Shinde's government wins the floor vote with 164 votes.  One more SHS MLA on the Uddhav Thackeray faction defected over to Eknath Shinde's faction.  This defector, it appears, cried for Uddhav Thackeray last week in front of SHS leaders and cadres, but this week defected to the Eknath Shinde camp.
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jaichind
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« Reply #560 on: July 05, 2022, 05:50:40 AM »

Now that the new BJP speaker in the Maharashtra assembly has ruled the Eknath Shinde faction as the true SHS in the assembly the Eknath Shinde faction has started proceeding to expel all Uddhav Thackeray faction MLAs for going against the  Eknath Shinde faction whip to vote for the new Eknath Shinde government in the floor test.  Interestingly they left out  Aditya Thackeray who is Uddhav Thackeray's son.  I guess they want to leave the door open for some sort of reunification in the future.  Of course, all this is going to the courts and this will ultimately get decided in the Supreme Court on who is the real SHS and EC on who gets the SHS election symbol. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #561 on: July 13, 2022, 03:58:21 AM »

Indian national emblem has been changed from a composed lion to a ferocious one.   Seems part of Modi's strategy for India to be much more active and assertive on the international stage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #562 on: July 13, 2022, 02:44:28 PM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/senas-support-murmu-open-door-signal-uddhav-bjp-8025478/

"In Shiv Sena’s decision to support Droupadi Murmu, an open door and a signal from Uddhav Thackeray to BJP"

Uddhav Thackeray's SHS faction showing signs of buckling under pressure.
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jaichind
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« Reply #563 on: July 13, 2022, 02:59:09 PM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/aiadmk-tussle-setback-for-o-panneerselvam-madras-high-court-allows-meeting-called-by-rival-e-palaniswamy-3146035

"AIADMK Tussle: EPS Is New Boss, Rival OPS Expelled"

EPS ousts OPS from AIADMK and becomes the sole leader of AIADMK.  This is a setback for BJP since OPS is viewed as more pro-BJP.  I wonder if the OPS faction of AIADMK will now openly jointly forces with expelled AIADMK leader Sasikala.
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jaichind
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« Reply #564 on: July 18, 2022, 04:08:11 AM »

The Prez election is in progress.  NDA's Droupadi Murmu is certain to win by a large margin based on opposition MP/MLA voting for her due to the tribal factor. 

One person put in the bind is Opposition candidate Yashwant Sinha's son Jayant Sinha who is a BJP MP from Jharkhand's Hazaribagh (Yashwant Sinha's old seat when he was in the BJP).  Since there is no whip for Prez and Vice Prez voting I suspect he will vote for his father.
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jaichind
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« Reply #565 on: July 21, 2022, 03:35:25 PM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/droupadi-murmu-elected-indias-first-tribal-president/articleshow/93035228.cms

"Droupadi Murmu elected India's first tribal president"

NDA's Draupadi Murmu wins 64.03% to 35.97% of the opposition candidate Yashwant Sinha

Given the scale of victory there was clear cross-voting by the opposition MP and MLAs
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #566 on: July 21, 2022, 05:25:56 PM »

Prez election results by state.
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jaichind
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« Reply #567 on: July 21, 2022, 05:30:04 PM »

The level of opposition MLA cross-voting for  Draupadi Murmu is highly correlated in tribal-heavy states: Assam, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Chhattisgarh.
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jaichind
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« Reply #568 on: July 25, 2022, 04:49:47 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/uddhav-thackeray-camp-moves-sc-to-stay-ec-proceedings-on-real-shiv-sena-1129816.html

"Uddhav Thackeray camp moves SC to stay EC proceedings on 'real' Shiv Sena"

It seems ECI is taking up the issue of SHS party symbol between the Thackeray and Shinde camps.  ECI seems to be using who has a majority of MPs and MLAs as the proxy as opposed to the local organizations which are clearly advantageous to the Shinde faction.  As a result, the Thackeray camp is escalating to SC.

In the next election, it is clear that it will be BJP-SHS(Shinde) on one side while it is not clear how INC NCP and SHS(Thackeray) will be configured.  If it is BJP-SHS(Shinde) vs INC-NCP-SHS(Thackeray) then it is political suicide for Thackeray since the core SHS vote will clearly go to BJP-SHS(Shinde) in such a situation.  What might work for Thackeray is if it becomes BJP-SHS(Shinde) vs SHS(Thackeray)-NCP vs INC but that requires Thackeray talking NCP into being second fiddle to SHS(Thackeray).  Gaming this out, if Thackeray cannot talk NCP into dropping INC and accepting SHS(Thackeray) as the senior partner, and especially if EC gives SHS(Shinde) faction the SHS symbol it is most likely that Thackeray will give in to Shinde and merge SHS(Thackeray) into SHS(Shinde) into a SHS reunification and just become an elder within SHS but real power being with Shinde.
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jaichind
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« Reply #569 on: July 25, 2022, 04:58:16 AM »

Map of poverty rate in India.

Note the clear correlation between Hindi poverty.



This is the core issue with Modi/BJP's plan of an ethnostate based on the Indo-Aryan Hindu identity.  Skipping the issue of the large Muslim population this political formulation will see great resistance from Dravidian-speaking states.  One way to overcome that would be to make Hindi an economically profitable language to learn and increase the rate of Sanskritization in the Dravidian South.  But an economically backward Hindi belt makes that narrative non-operational.

And here we get into the chicken and the egg problem.  The point of creating an Indo-Aryan Hindu ethnostate would be for India to act as one which would lead to the necessary political and economic change to propel India from a Great Power to a Superpower.  But it seems to get to an Indo-Aryan Hindu ethnostate would first require an economic surge in the Hindi belt.  The way out would be the get incremental economic reform within the existing system to a point that the Indo-Aryan Hindu ethnostate might be a positive sell in the Dravidian South.  But in many ways that is just the rerun of the Manmohan Singh approach of UPA 2004-2014.  And we sort of seeing that in the way the BJP operates.  BJP is merely a culturally conservative and Hindu nationalist version of INC while keeping the INC approach of incremental economic reform but being more effective than INC at operating targeted welfare handouts to gain votes.  It is for sure a successful political strategy for the BJP but a far cry from what was promised in 2014 when BJP said that Modi would completely transform India into a superpower.
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jaichind
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« Reply #570 on: July 28, 2022, 04:04:50 AM »

Karnataka's Digvijaya News poll for 2023 Karnataka assembly elections

            Seats        Vote share
INC       106              46%
BJP         94              41%
JS(S)      21              11%
Others      3                2%

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #571 on: July 29, 2022, 06:42:58 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2022, 06:46:17 AM by jaichind »

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/bjp-accepts-junior-role-in-nagaland-alliance-murmurs-within-state-unit-8057171/

"BJP accepts junior role in Nagaland alliance, murmurs within state unit"

In a victory for the ruling NDPP in Nagaland, the BJP accepts a 40-20 seat split for the 2023 assembly elections which is a repeat of the 2018 formula.  NDPP's gambit of bringing in its rival NPF into the government seems to have worked to spook BJP into accepting the 40-20 formula.

Of course, this is not over.  Until the 2023 elections, the BJP could always consider backstabbing NDPP and go for an alliance with NPF if it thinks a NPF-BJP alliance can defeat NDPP in 2023.  Of course, BJP has to be careful as in  the Naga parts of the Manipur assembly elections early this year a de facto NDPP-backed NPF beat out BJP around 36% to 27% in terms of vote share showing the BJP has strength with Naga voters but not enough to win on its own.
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jaichind
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« Reply #572 on: July 29, 2022, 05:01:59 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2022, 05:18:38 AM by jaichind »

India TV poll for LS election has NDA landslide victory

            Seats   Vote share
NDA      362       41%
UPA         97       28%
Others     84       31%



State by state is interesting (with the 2019 result)

Gujarat: NDA 26, UPA 0  (same as 2019)
Maharashtra: NDA 37, UPA 11 (2019 NDA 41 UPA 6, Others 1) - SHS(Thackeray) being in UPA does make a difference
Goa: NDA 2 (2019 NDA 1, UPA 1)
Rajasthan: NDA 25 (same as 2019)
MP: NDA 28, UPA 1 (same as 2019)
Chhattisgarh: NDA 10, UPA 1 (2019 NDA 9 UPA 2)
WB: NDA 14, UPA 2, AITC 26 (2019 NDA 18, UPA 2, AITC 22)
Bihar: NDA 35, UPA 5 (2019 NDA 39 UPA 1)
Jharkhand: NDA 13, UPA 1 (2019 NDA 12 UPA 2)
Odisha: NDA 11, UPA 2, BJD 8 (2019 NDA 8, UPA 1, BJD 12)
HP: NDA 4, UPA 0 (same s 2019)
Punjab: NDA 3, UPA 3, AAP 7 (2019 NDA 4, UPA 8, AAP 1)
Haryana: NDA 9, UPA 1 (2019 NDA 10)
UP: NDA 76!!, UPA 2, SP 2 (2019 UPA 64, UPA 1, SP-BSP 15) - Rahul Gandhi retakes Amethi ?
Uttarakhand: NDA 5, UPA 0 (same as 2019)
Telangana: NDA 6, UPA 2, TRS 8, AIMIM 1 (2019 NDA 4, UPA 3, TRS 9, AIMIM 1)
Andhra Pradesh: NDA 0, UPA 0, YRSCP/TDP 25 (2019 YSRCP 22 TDP 3) - not clear YRSCP/TDP split
Karnataka: NDA 23, UPA 4, JD(S) 1 (2019 NDA 26, UPA 1, JD(S) 1)
TN: NDA 1, UPA 38 (same as 2019)
Kerala: NDA 0, UPA 20, Left Front 0 (2019 NDA 0, UPA 19, Left Front 1)
Tripura: NDA 2, UPA 0 (same as 2019)
Assam: NDA 11, UPA 1, AIUDF 1, Ind 1 (2019 NDA 9, UPA 3, AIUDF 1, Ind 1)
NE states: NDA 7, UPA 1, Others 1
UT: NDA 4, UPA 2

Mostly the same as 2019 with NDA making gains in UP due to SP-BSP split and UPA becoming a de facto Dravida Nadu allia ce (TN + Kerala)
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jaichind
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« Reply #573 on: August 06, 2022, 06:43:34 AM »

India VP voting is in progress.  NDA's Jagdeep Dhankhar is expected to defeat United Opposition candidate Margaret Alva with ease.  I suspect the victory gap will be smaller than in the Prez election since the tribal factor will not be present.   
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,153
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« Reply #574 on: August 06, 2022, 08:44:27 AM »

https://theprint.in/india/in-who-is-the-real-shiv-sena-battle-supreme-court-orders-ec-to-hold-tight/1068620/

"In ‘who is the real Shiv Sena’ battle, Supreme Court orders EC to hold tight"

Supreme Court tells ECI to hold off on a decision on the SHS party symbol between the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions as constitutional issues are at stake.
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