India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

A bunch of by-elections are to take place today.  

Results out tomorrow.  The Tripura and Jharkhand assembly by-election results will be the most interesting.  In Tripura, there has been a lot of churn and there is a good chance the BJP will lose power in 2023.  The by-election results will give a sense of the relative strength of INC and Left Front there.  In Jharkhand, the by-election is in Mandar where the 2020 JVM winner joined INC after JVM moved toward merging with BJP.  The same ex-JVM INC MLA was then convinced of corruption which means a by-election is needed.  INC nominated the incumbent's daughter against the BJP.  There are signs that the JMM-INC government there might be losing support so this by-election will give us a sense of how true that is. 

In the LS by-elections, it is clear AAP will win a landslide victory while the 2 UP by-elections are SP strongholds so any BJP win these would be very bad news for SP.

[jaichind]

SHS party workers attack and vandalize offices of SHS rebel MLAs

From the outside, it still seems Uddhav Thackeray still has the upper hand when it comes to the loyalties of the grassroots party workers.

[jaichind]

Shock results in LS by-elections while in assembly by-elections they mostly went according to script

Punjab Sangrur LS

SAD(M)      35.6%  (SAD(M) leader Simranjit Singh Mann)
AAP           34.8%
INC            11.2%
BJP              9.3%
SAD             6.3%

2019
AAP          37.4% (Now Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann)
INC          27.4%
SAD         23.8% (backed by BJP)
SAD(M)      4.4%  (SAD(M) leader Simranjit Singh Mann)

SAD(M) leader Simranjit Singh Mann pulled off a stunning victory.  The pro-Khalistan SAD splinter SAD(M) had been irrelevant since the early 2000s although with the decline of SAD in the last few years it has been making a small comeback in the 2022 assembly elections.  

It seems the INC vote went over to AAP as part of the AAP honeymoon period but the SAD vote which had shifted to AAP a bit in 2019 has completely gone over to SAD(M) to counter AAP.



UP Azamgarh LS

BJP               34.6%
SP                 33.0%
BSP               29.5%

2019

SP                 60.4% (SP leader Akhilesh Yadav) (backed by BSP)
BJP                35.1%

BSP ran hard with a Muslim candidate in this heavy secular Muslim seat and split enough of the anti-BJP vote to allow the BJP to win.  Total shock how well BSP did.


UP Rampur LS

BJP               52.0%
SP                 46.0%

2019
SP                 52.7% (with BSP support)
BJP                42.3%
INC                 3.3%

It seems residual BSP support in this district shifted to BJP in another shock victory for the BJP in this heavy Muslim seat.



AP Atmakur  assembly

YSRCP             74.5%
BJP                  14.1%
BSP                   3.6%

2019

YSRCP             53.9%
TDP                 40.9%
BJP                   1.3%
BSP                  1.3%
JS                     1.2%
INC                   0.7%

TDP did not contest this by-election which made it irrelevant



Jharkhand Mandar assembly

INC                   41.6% (son on JVM turned INC incumbent)
BJP                   33.9%
BJP rebel           12.5% (backed by AIMIM)
CPM                    6.0%

2020
JVM                   41.9% (since defected to INC after JVM moved to merge with BJP)
BJP                    31.4%
AIMIM                10.7%
AJSU                   7.1%
INC                     4.0%

After 2020 JVM merged into BJP and AJSU renewed their alliance with BJP although the JVM MLA joined INC instead.  On paper, the BJP should have won here but given the fact that JMM-INC is the ruling party in the state, this result is not that big of a surprise.  This result does show that JMM-INC is at least in the running for the 2025 assembly elections for now.  AIMIM backing a BJP rebel is a surprise and it seems he captured part of the BJP and AIMIM vote.


Delhi Rajinder Nagar assembly

AAP                   55.8%
BJP                   39.9%
INC                     2.8%

2020

AAP                   57.3%
BJP                   37.9%
INC                     3.8%

Seems like a re-run of 2020.  Neutral to slight positive sign for AAP for 2025.



Tripura Agartala assembly

INC                   43.5% (sitting BJP MLA that defected to INC)
BJP                    35.6%
CPM                   17.0%
AITC                    2.1%

2018
BJP                    57.0% (since defected to INC)
CPM                   40.3%
INC                     1.5%
AITC                    0.7%



Tripura Jubarajnagar assembly

BJP                    51.8%
CPM                   39.2%
INC                      4.0%
AITC                     3.0%

2018
CPM                   49.2%
BJP                    47.5%
INC                     1.9%
AITC                    0.7%



Tripura Surma assembly

BJP                    42.3%
TIPRA                30.7%  (INC tribal splinter).
CPM                   21.4%
AITC                    3.4%

2018
BJP                    52.2% (has since defected to AITC and then left AITC)
CPM                   45.4%
INC                      0.8%
AITC                     0.8%



Tripura Town Bardowali assembly

BJP                    51.6% (current BJP CM)
INC                   33.3% (was sitting BJP MLA that defected to INC)
AIFB                  10.2% (backed by CPM)
AITC                    3.0%

2018
BJP                   62.4% (defected to INC)
AIFB                 33.7%
INC                    3.3%

All in all not a great election result for BJP but satisfactory.  How well BJP does next year depends on how the anti-BJP vote is split.  It seems INC is on a comeback trail in Tripura after BJP ate up all the INC votes in an anti-Left consolidation in 2018.  The talk was that AITC has eaten up the opposition space of both INC and especially the Left Front.  These results say that AITC has completely flopped and that INC and Left Front are the real threat to BJP in 2023.  If INC can form an alliance with INC tribal splinter TIPRA and have some tactical alliances with Left Front they can pose a real threat to BJP which itself is in turmoil in Tripura.

[jaichind]

Rebellion within a rebellion?

NDV reports that 20 SHS rebel MLAs are in touch with Uddhav Thackeray and might defect back
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-crisis-team-uddhav-thackerays-dare-after-rebel-eknath-shindes-late-night-meeting-with-bjps-devendra-fadnavis-3100981

There are also reports that the remaining loyal SHS MLAs are also going to move into the 5-star hotel in Assam that the SHS rebel MLAs are living in.  I guess they are going to try to talk them into defecting back face-to-face.  If true this is pretty impressive how confident Uddhav Thackeray is of his remaining MLAs that they will not get convinced the other way around to defect.  I guess Uddhav Thackeray figures he has nothing to lose.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/bjp-s-tripura-ally-ipft-to-merge-with-tipra-motha-ahead-of-assembly-polls-122062600048_1.html

"BJP's Tripura ally IPFT to merge with Tipra Motha ahead of Assembly polls"

BJP tribal ally IPFT had split into a pro-BJP and anti-BJP faction and the anti-BJP faction will merge into INC tribal splinter TIPRA.  The pro-BJP faction will most likely continue with a rump IPFT that will be allied with the BJP.  BJP is trying to move into Tripura tribal areas which created conflict with IPFT and led to the formation of the anti-BJP faction of IPFT in the first place. 

It was always understood that TIPRA will ally with AITC in the 2023 assembly election but with AITC becoming a dud in the Tripura assembly by-elections and INC outperforming it is very likely that TIPRA might ally with INC to take on BJP in 2023 with the result being decided on how INC and Left Front anti-BJP tactical voting might work out.

[jaichind]

Uddhav Thackeray talking about the SHS rebellion in his cabinet must be extra ironic because one of his NCP ministers Chhagan Bhujbal led one of the four great SHS rebellions (the current one being the latest of the four.) 

Chhagan Bhujbal was an early SHS OBC leader, was very close to SHS founder and leader Balasaheb Thackeray, and was one of the first SHS MLA ever to be elected in 1985.  In 1991 he had a falling out with SHS and lead 18 SHS MLA in a rebellion which then joined INC.  7 of those SHS rebel MLA defected back so his bloc of SHS to INC MLAs was only 11.  In 1999 he joined Sharad Pawar's rebellion against INC and joined NCP and became a top leader in NCP.  Because of the SHS-NCP-INC coalition government formed in 2019, Chhagan Bhujbal became a minister in the Uddhav Thackeray cabinet. 

So it must be extra ironic for Uddhav Thackeray to sit with his cabinet and talk about the current SHS rebellion and sitting across from him is Chhagan Bhujbal who himself led a great SHS rebellion in 1991.

[jaichind]

In a victory for the Eknath Shinde SHS rebel camp, the Supreme Court stayed the disqualification of 12 Eknath Shinde rebel SHS MLA by SHS until July 12th so they can hear arguments from both sides on the legality of the disqualification request.  The Uddhav Thackeray camp is saying that Eknath Shinde has been removed as the legislative leader of the SHS assembly caucus and that 12 of the SHS rebels need to be disqualified for not obeying the whip of the new SHS assembly leader.  The Eknath Shinde camp is saying that the Eknath Shinde faction has 2/3 of the SHS MLAs so his removal as SHS legislative leader is illegal.

[jaichind]

On current numbers NDA Candidate  Draupadi Murmu is likely to get 56.88% votes while United Opposition Candidate Yashwant Sinha is likely to get 39.53% votes. 3.59% of votes still remain undecided.  The real result will likely be even better for NDA as JMM MLAs and other anti-NDA tribal MLAs are likely to vote for Draupadi Murmu for tribal solidarity.

[jaichind]

Health insurance coverage by state.

RSBY is a central government health insurance scheme for those below the poverty line set up by the Modi government a couple of years ago.  That explains the baseline health insurance coverage up to around ~15% everywhere.  The rest are state government-based insurance schemes.  Rajasthan is the most extensive.  UP and Bihar has pretty much nothing at the state level.

This chart does show that private insurance is really not a thing in India and people mostly pay out of pocket unless there is some government insurance scheme for cost-sharing.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/shiv-sena-moves-sc-against-maharashtra-governor-s-call-for-floor-test-tomorrow-101656474516721.html

"Shiv Sena moves SC against Maharashtra governor's call for floor test tomorrow"

After the Supreme Court delayed the expulsion of 12 rebel SHS MLA the pro-BJP government now moves for a floor test of the Uddhav Thackeray government.  The Uddhav Thackeray camp is going to the Supreme Court asking for a delay of the floor test until the issue of the expulsion of the 12 rebel SHS MLAs is resolved since the issue of who is the legal leader of the SHS assembly caucus and hence who can issue the whip on how to vote on the floor test is in dispute.

[jaichind]

The Supreme Court allows the Maharastra floor test tomorrow.  This is pretty much the end of the  Uddhav Thackeray government.  Now it comes down to if the SHS rebel MLA wants to merge into BJP or resign to run for re-election under the  Eknath Shinde splinter SHS. Either way, the Uddhav Thackeray government will be gone and replaced with a BJP government. 

This is the third government since 2019 that BJP was able to take over after engineering defections in the state ruling party ranks.

Karnataka - 2019
MP - 2020
and now Maharastra  2022

[jaichind]

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray announces his resignation.

[jaichind]

BJP Maharashtra leader Devendra Fadnavis will be sworn in tomorrow for the third time as CM.

[jaichind]

In an ironic way, Uddhav Thackeray is getting exactly what he claimed he was promised by the BJP.  The BJP-SHS 2019 assembly election alliance was based on the promise, so Uddhav Thackeray says, that the CM seat will be shared 50/50 between SHS and BJP with each getting 2.5 years as CM with SHS being first.  After the BJP-SHS win in the 2019 assembly elections, BJP claimed there was no such promise and that as the larger party of the alliance the BJP should get the CM seat for all 5 years.  In anger, Uddhav Thackeray formed an alliance with NCP-INC to become CM.  Now after 2.5 years his government is overthrown and now a BJP CM will take over.  So in many ways, Uddhav Thackeray got exactly what he claimed he was promised, SHS got the CM seat for 2.5 years and now BJP will be CM for 2.5 years. 

[jaichind]

Another rapid turn in Maharashtra.  Former BJP CM  Devendra Fadnavis announces that SHS rebel leader Eknath Shinde will be the next CM of Maharashtra instead of himself. 

Not clear what is going on here.  It could be that the SHS rebel faction led by  Eknath Shinde does not want to merge into BJP nor resign to run for re-election as a SHS(B) candidate with BJP support.  This move seems to give  Eknath Shinde a chance at convincing the Uddhav Thackeray to come on board and reunited the SHS to avoid a choice that the SHS rebel faction does not want to make.  If Uddhav Thackeray does relent then this entire affair could be a mega Uddhav Thackeray-Eknath Shinde scam on NCP-INC to get out of the SHS-NCP-INC government to switch to a SHS-BJP government without looking, opportunist.  It seems it is spy vs spy everywhere.

[jaichind]

So in the end what was the whole point of this BJP's work to ally with the SHS rebel Eknath Shinde only for him to become CM.  If BJP was ok with not having the CM and giving it to SHS they could have just supported SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray for CM back in 2019 and the BJP-SHS alliance would have continued fine.

It seems  Eknath Shinde must have had a condition of leading the SHS rebellion on the condition he becomes CM which makes sense from his point of view.  The question is why did BJP agree to it.  It seems BJP is acting out of revenge on Uddhav Thackeray for betraying them in 2019.  It is a poor idea for a political party or any leader to act out of anger.

[jaichind]

There is a Chinese saying "寧予外人，不予家奴"   "I rather up something to an outsider than give it to my servant. "  The idea that if you give things to a servant that he/she does not deserve then that will create a precedent of other servants not knowing their place and weaken your authority.  So if something has to be lost you rather give it to an outsider instead.

This seems to be the BJP logic.  They view allies as de facto servants of the BJP.  The fact that  Uddhav Thackeray dared to rebel against the BJP to snatch the CM seat has to be punished even if in the end the CM seat does not come back to the BJP but to some else.   BJP is doing this as a show of force to friends and enemies alike to how far they can go to maintain their power and smash all that get in their way, be it an ally or an enemy.

[jaichind]

Media reporting that SHS rebel  Eknath Shinde to be next CM and BJP leader and former CM Devendra Fadnavis will not be part of the cabinet.



Will be very interesting to see how Uddhav Thackeray and his SHS faction as well as NCP and INC react to this turn of events.

[jaichind]

Just an hour before this latest turn of events the pro-BJP governor of Maharastra was giving sweets to congratulate the new CM Devendra Fadnavis has DCM  Eknath Shinde on their upcoming swearing-in ceremony.  Then a few minutes later after some discussions between Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde, it was decided that Eknath Shinde will become CM instead.  It seems the pro-BJP government or Maharastra was also in the dark on these plans one hour before the swearing-in ceremony that he was supposed to be officiating.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So in the end what was the whole point of this BJP's work to ally with the SHS rebel Eknath Shinde only for him to become CM.  If BJP was ok with not having the CM and giving it to SHS they could have just supported SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray for CM back in 2019 and the BJP-SHS alliance would have continued fine.

It seems  Eknath Shinde must have had a condition of leading the SHS rebellion on the condition he becomes CM which makes sense from his point of view.  The question is why did BJP agree to it.  It seems BJP is acting out of revenge on Uddhav Thackeray for betraying them in 2019.  It is a poor idea for a political party or any leader to act out of anger.

And that in turn could be seen as being driven by the BJP betraying the promises they made to Thackeray.
Who wins out here? Shiv Sena, because there won't be an election in which SHS is against BJP? Or is it the BJP, because they are now back in power, seemingly? Or is it Shiv Sena, because they managed to bamdoozle the BJP?
So much going on here...

[jaichind]

So in the end what was the whole point of this BJP's work to ally with the SHS rebel Eknath Shinde only for him to become CM.  If BJP was ok with not having the CM and giving it to SHS they could have just supported SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray for CM back in 2019 and the BJP-SHS alliance would have continued fine.

It seems  Eknath Shinde must have had a condition of leading the SHS rebellion on the condition he becomes CM which makes sense from his point of view.  The question is why did BJP agree to it.  It seems BJP is acting out of revenge on Uddhav Thackeray for betraying them in 2019.  It is a poor idea for a political party or any leader to act out of anger.

And that in turn could be seen as being driven by the BJP betraying the promises they made to Thackeray.
Who wins out here? Shiv Sena, because there won't be an election in which SHS is against BJP? Or is it the BJP, because they are now back in power, seemingly? Or is it Shiv Sena, because they managed to bamdoozle the BJP?
So much going on here...

No idea.   If Uddhav Thackeray now backs Eknath Shinde then this entire episode could have been a massive SHS good cop bad cop scheme on BJP taking advtange of their desrive for revenge to get them to accept being a junior partner to SHS.  From SHS point of view the statuo was getting worse and worse with some SHS vote going over to BJP for the upcoming 2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election and a SHS-NCP alliance would a) most likely lose to BJP and b) shift more SHS support base to NCP with the result being a BJP mayor of Mumbai and taking away SHS's cash cow.

So perhaps a scheme was hatched up between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde to have Eknath Shinde lead a "rebellion" to get BJP to come back to an alliance with SHS but serve under SHS again as a junior partner like before 2014. 

We will see soon if this is what took place.

It is said that BJP will not join the government so the entire cabinet will be made up for SHS rebel MLAs which means almost all of the SHS rebels will be made ministers.  What a massive political payoff for their bet to join the rebellion, if it was as real rebellion at all.

[jaichind]

Another last minute turn.  Former BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis will become DCM.  It seems there we signs of BJP rebellion in its ranks at not having a share of power so BJP will join government. 

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/bjp-looks-to-weaken-shiv-sena-capture-regional-sentiments-by-picking-eknath-shinde-as-cm-1122762.html

"BJP looks to weaken Shiv Sena, capture 'regional sentiments' by picking Eknath Shinde as CM"

Some political commentators say that what took place was not a SHS good cop bad cop scam on BJP but a calculated move by the BJP to strengthen the pro-BJP faction of the SHS and to slowly weaken the Thackeray clan's influence of SHS so SHS eventually become a obedient junior regional ally of BJP.

[jaichind]

Evolution of SHS and BJP contested and won in the Maharastra assembly elections where the BJP slowly overtook SHS over each election cycle

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/west/shiv-sena-chief-whip-moves-sc-for-suspending-shinde-other-rebel-mlas-1122925.html

"Shiv Sena chief whip moves SC for suspending Shinde, other rebel MLAs"

For now, the SHS split is still real with the pro-Uddhav Thackeray SHS whip still asking that CM Shinde and other SHS rebel MLAs are expelled from SHS.

This will set up an interesting floor test where the Shinde bloc of SHS MLAs will claim they are the true SHS assembly caucus and issue a whip for pro-Uddhav Thackeray  SHS MLAs to vote for the new Shinde government while the pro-Uddhav Thackeray SHS whip will do the opposite.  I guess all this will be a big blowup and go to the courts on who is the real SHS.

In theory, the law still is on Uddhav Thackeray's side since unless the rebel SHS faction can take over the SHS organization the Uddhav Thackeray faction still is legally the real SHS.