India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[Frodo]

As it happens, I read somewhere that the Pakistani army derives most of its recruits from the same general region, namely the provinces of Sindh and Punjab.  There seems to be an established longstanding warrior tradition there, which would make sense.  Since time immemorial, invasions have typically come through the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent through the Khyber Pass, so the inhabitants would have had to get used to fighting.  

This has to do with the Great Indian Mutiny of 1857.  Sikh troops were very active in helping British troops put down the rebellion.  Of course, that is partly revenge for Hindu/Muslims in the Hindi heartland not rising up to help the Sikhs n the Anglo-Sikh wars of the 1840s.  Afterward, the UK decided to really incorporate more Sikhs in their Indian forces.

It far predates the Sepoy Mutiny.  Also, most Punjabis in Pakistan are Muslim (not Sikhs), as are their compatriots in Sindh who are mostly descendants of displaced Indian Muslims.  

[jaichind]

 
It far predates the Sepoy Mutiny.  Also, most Punjabis in Pakistan are Muslim (not Sikhs), as are their compatriots in Sindh who are mostly descendants of displaced Indian Muslims.  

Good point.  I failed to grasp your original point on the various waves of invasions from the Khyber Pass of Turkic Afgan and Mongol nature.  Even the growth of the martial power of the Rajputs in Rajasthan grew in response to these invasions.

[jaichind]

54% of India's defense budget are salary and pensions. Ergo the need for reform

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maharashtra-political-crisis-will-it-go-karnataka-mp-way-or-can-shiv-sena-do-a-rajasthan/articleshow/92355501.cms

Maharashtra in political crisis as SHS-NCP-INC government could collapse.

SHS legislative party leader Eknath Shinde has rebelled and could lead many SHS MLAs to ally with BJP with Eknath Shinde as DCM.  The key issue now is how large is the rebellion and if SHS can regain control of their caucus.  Eknath Shinde has been removed as SHS legislative party leader.
 

[jaichind]

Unless the SHS MLA rebels are willing to resign and run for re-election with BJP support it is critical that the Eknath Shinde rebellion get 2/3 of the SHS MLAs to come over to his side.  If he does that then it will be considered a split in the SHS caucus and the rebel SHS MLAs will be considered a separate party/group without the need for them to resign and run for re-election under anti-defection laws.

[jaichind]

For the upcoming Prez election, the NDA nominee is Draupadi Murmu and the opposition candidate is Yashwant Sinha.  Draupadi Murmu was a tribal BJP MLA from Odisha and then was the governor of Jharkhand.  Yashwant Sinha was the general secretary of JD before going over to the BJP in 1996 and becoming the Minister of Finance.  He fell out of favor with the BJP when Modi took over and then left the BJP to join AITC.

Draupadi Murmu is certain to win.  Her coming from Odisha would mean that BJD would back her while her being a tribal would mean INC ally JMM would vote for her.  JD(U) and YSRCP have already announced that they will support Draupadi Murmu which makes her victory a foregone conclusion.

[jaichind]

In the Maharashtra SHS rebellion saga, the rebel MLAs flew to Gujarat and then flew to Assam.  SHS rebel leader Eknath Shinde claims he has 45 out of 56 SHS MLAs backing him.  It seems some of the SHS rebel MLAs have already escaped back to Mumbai claiming that they were tricked by Eknath Shinde.  The core of the Eknath Shinde's rebellion is that there is a BJP wave in Maharastra and that it is critical SHS renew its alliance with BJP or be swept away in the next election.

The basis of this SHS rebellion, even if it is put down, would become a self-reinforcing prophecy.  In the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election could be had for SHS given how split it is which would hand victory to the BJP which in turn prove the pro-BJP elements of SHS correct.  Even if the SHS-NCP-INC government beats back this rebellion I suspect the Uddhav Thackeray government will not last long.
 

 

[jaichind]

34 SHS MLA signs an open document with support to SHS rebel Eknath Shinde. They are getting close to the 37 they need to be legally considered a split in SHS and non-application of the anti-defection law.

[jaichind]

Writeup on how India Prez election works on how the LS MP, RS MP, and MLA votes are weighted.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/despite-being-bigger-player-mva-shiv-sena-flock-scatter-1965581-2022-06-22

"Despite being bigger player in MVA, why did Shiv Sena's flock scatter?"

India Today's article indicates that NCP has been eating into SHS's power base within the SHS-NCP-INC government and as a result some SHS MLA felt that going back to BJP might be better for them.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/maharashtra-crisis-uddhav-moves-out-of-official-residence-for-family-home-122062201384_1.html

"Amid revolt in Shiv Sena, Maharashtra CM vacates official residence"

Uddhav Thackeray is counterattacking the SHS rebels by offering to resign if they will come out to say they want him out as CM.  He is counting on the fact that the SHS vote base is still with him.  So far the SHS MLA rebels are firing at the NCP-INC and mostly ignoring Uddhav Thackeray.  To show he means business Uddhav Thackeray has moved out of the CM residence.  I think he is trying to provoke the SHS activists to come out to protest in his favor and put pressure on the SHS rebel MLAs.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-political-crisis-shiv-sena-rebels-gain-3-more-mlas-as-team-thackeray-weighs-an-offer-10-points-3092340

"Team Thackeray Caves, Says Ready To Quit Government: 10 Facts"

SHS CM Uddhav Thackeray backs down saying that if the rebels come back in 24 hours he would consider ending the SHS-NCP-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

A bunch of by-elections are to take place today.  

[jaichind]

All the Maharastra assembly independents have shifted from SHS-NCP-INC to a pro-BJP pro-Eknath Shinde rebel bloc.  They are good harbingers of where the battle is going.   Uddhav Thackeray will have to either cave and clearly play second fiddle to both BJP and Eknath Shinde within the SHS or accept that most of the SHS MLA and even MPs will go with Eknath Shinde and hope that his faction of SHS can retain the SHS vote in the next election as opposed to the Eknath Shinde SHS.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/shiv-sena-seeks-disqualification-of-12-rebels-mlas-eknath-shinde-one-of-them-101656000991065.html

"Shiv Sena seeks disqualification of 12 rebels MLAs, Eknath Shinde one of them"

SHS high command next move is to seek the disqualification  12 of its rebel MLA which are the ringleaders of the rebellion.  I guess they are hoping to scare the rebels into coming back.

[jaichind]

Cartoon on how the Indian political establishment is far more focused on the Mahatrastra political crisis than the floods in Assam.

[jaichind]

https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/maharashtra-political-crisis-why-assembly-deputy-speaker-narhari-zirwal-will-play-a-crucial-role

"Maharashtra Political Crisis: Why Assembly Dy Speaker May Play a Crucial Role"

The NCP  Maharashtra  Assembly Deputy Speaker will play a critical role in the current battle for SHS.  The reason is there is no current Speaker of the Maharashtra  Assembly.  When the SHS-NCP-INC alliance was formed in 2019 the allocation of key roles are CM: SHS, Assembly Speaker: INC, and Assembly Deputy Speaker: NCP.   When the INC Speaker was made the INC chief of Maharashtra INC high command asked him to step down as Speaker since the Speaker role should be non-partisan.  Due to internal battles within INC, INC high command never appointed a replacement which meant the NCP  Deputy Speaker is the de facto Speaker.

The NCP  Maharashtra  Assembly Deputy Speaker will now have to rule on various SHS demands to change SHS assembly leadership as well as disqualification of SHS rebel MLA leaders.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-awaits-final-outcome-amid-political-fight-within-shiv-sena-in-maharashtra-406556

"Contest elections without using Thackeray name and Sena symbol, Uddhav Thackeray challenges rebels"

Good point by Uddhav Thackeray.  Even if the SHS rebel MLA takes over SHS unless they get Uddhav Thackeray to be with them they will still be in trouble in the next assembly election.  The premise of the rebellion was that SHS MLA seats might be given away to NCP or lost to BJP as both NCP and BJP have grown at the expense of SHS in the last couple of years.    Of course, the SHS rebels might counter by merging their faction of SHS with SHS splinter MNS led by Uddhav Thackeray's cousin Raj Thackeray.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/i-ran-away-from-barricades-sena-mla-kailash-patil-to-ndtv-3097118

""I Ran Away, Some (MLAs) Are Signing Under Pressure": Sena MLA Kailas Patil"

This SHS MLA is hedging himself.  He gave interviews supporting the rebellion but at the same time is also claiming he is joining the rebellion under pressure.  This way no matter which side wins he can claim he was always on the winning side.

[jaichind]

The food bill for the 30+ SHS MLA in the 5-star hotel they are staying in Assam comes out to more than $10K a day.   That is a very large bill given price levels in India.  And that is separate from the cost of staying at the 5-star hotel.  The BJP which is clearly behind and funding this is sparing no expense to ensure the rebellion wins including making sure the SHS rebel MLA gets the best possible living treatment.

[jaichind]

It seems the SHS rebel camp has 2/3 of the SHS MLAs but their problems are not over.  Having 2/3 of the MLAs just means creating a separate party or merging into, say BJP, which can be done without the MLA being disqualified.  Having 2/3 of the SHS MLAs does not mean that Eknath Shinde's faction can take over SHS and the SHS election symbol.  For that to take place his faction has to take over the various SHS branches and win control of SHS according to SHS by-laws which will be scrutinized by the EC.  It seems clear that the SHS MLAs CAN NOT win an election on a symbol that is not the SHS symbol including the BJP symbol it is critical that they have to find a way for Uddhav Thackeray to yield control of the party to them or else they are still up a creek without a paddle come next assembly election.  Knowing this Uddhav Thackeray is still playing hardball with the rebels despite they gaining control of 2/3 of the SHS MLAs.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/eps-one-step-up-in-aiadmk-power-battle-receives-crown-as-ops-booed-out-of-council-meeting/1010095/

"EPS one step up in AIADMK power battle receives ‘crown’ as OPS booed out of council meeting"

SHS is not the only party with a civil war.  In AIADMK the final battle between EPS and OPS finally took place with total victory for EPS was became the sole leader of AIADMK to replace the old EPS-OPS joint leadership of the party.  This victory is also the defeat of former and expelled AIADMK leader Sasikala who was supposed to back OPS behind the scenes.  The scale of EPS' defeat means Sasikala's influence is not what it used to be.  In the end, OPS had a perception of being too close to the BJP and that worked against him as EPS gain complete control of the party.  Is it possible OPS might take his faction out of AIADMK and try to merge with Sasikala's AMMK.  Historically AIADMK splinters, including AMMK, have not done well so OPS might op to stay in AIADMK and be a much-diminished figure.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-pandemics-income-inequality-surprise-covid-lockdown-poverty-economy-7830354/

"The pandemic’s income inequality surprise"

The electoral resilience of the BJP is a surprise given the large economic hit India took during the COVID-19 pandemic.  A new report shed some light on why.  It seems that even as there was a big GDP hit the impact was relativity greater in the services-based upper-middle class than in the poor.  This is counterintuitive since the lockdowns clearly hit the unorganized migrate labors but it seems the large migrations in the Indian unorganized labor force as a part of the COVDI-19 years increased social mobility and mitigated income loss among the poor.  The net result is the Indian middle class got hit the worse (the super-rich gained because of stock market surges).  But the Indian middle class tends to vote on ideological (many are devote Hindus and will vote for BJP no matter what)  and economic issues.  The poor will vote based on practical economic issues but seeing their lot improve relative to their middle-income peers and the BJP being organized to deliver services and aid to this group means the BJP electoral machine was not damaged by the COVID-19 recession.

[jaichind]

BJP's official statement saying "it has nothing to do with current SHS internal problems" by Maharashtra BJP President Chandrakant Dada Patil.

[jaichind]

It seems the SHS rebel camp has 2/3 of the SHS MLAs but their problems are not over.  Having 2/3 of the MLAs just means creating a separate party or merging into, say BJP, which can be done without the MLA being disqualified.  Having 2/3 of the SHS MLAs does not mean that Eknath Shinde's faction can take over SHS and the SHS election symbol.  For that to take place his faction has to take over the various SHS branches and win control of SHS according to SHS by-laws which will be scrutinized by the EC.  It seems clear that the SHS MLAs CAN NOT win an election on a symbol that is not the SHS symbol including the BJP symbol it is critical that they have to find a way for Uddhav Thackeray to yield control of the party to them or else they are still up a creek without a paddle come next assembly election.  Knowing this Uddhav Thackeray is still playing hardball with the rebels despite their gaining control of 2/3 of the SHS MLAs.

There are rumors of Eknath Shinde wanting to create his own SHS called SHS (Balasaheb) or SHS(B) named after SHS founder Balasaheb Thackeray who is the father of current SHS leader and Mahrastratra CM Uddhav Thackeray.  There is a problem with this.  I looked into the anti-defection law some more and while 2/3 of the SHS MLA is good enough for them to merge into BJP without being expelled as a MLA it does not allow for a party split without the MLA losing his/her seat.  This is a problem because Eknath Shinde's SHS rebel MLAs most likely do not WANT to join the BJP as this would mean they lose the local SHS cadre support in the next assembly election.



So Eknath Shinde can for sure form SHS(B) but all his MLAs will have to resign and run for re-election as SHS(B) candidates (I assume with BJP support) in by-elections against Uddhav Thackeray's SHS.  This will be dangerous for those MLAs and give them cold feet.  It seems to me that  Eknath Shinde is better off trying to capture the local SHS branches and then making a bid to take over SHS completely.  The problem with that is this will take time and in the meantime, Uddhav Thackeray's SHS will ask the NCP Dy Speaker to expell a bunch of these rebel SHS MLAs.