India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/may/26/anxiety-grips-gujarat-congress-over-final-yes-from-naresh-patel-2458052.html

"Anxiety grips Gujarat Congress over final ‘yes’ from Naresh Patel"

It seems Naresh Patel will make a call on his entry into politics by end of May.  After  Hardik Patel's departure from Gujarat INC, it seems the INC is putting all their eggs in the Naresh Patel basket to be their CM face for the assembly election end of the year.

[jaichind]

Lok Poll for HP assembly elections

BJP        33
INC        31
Others      4

Neck-to-neck is not good for the ruling BJP but the Lok poll has a historic anti-BJP bias.

[jaichind]

https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/india-news-former-haryana-cm-om-prakash-chautala-gets-4-years-jail-in-disproportionate-assets-case-3756335.html

"Former Haryana CM Om Prakash Chautala Gets 4 Years Jail in Disproportionate Assets Case"

87-year-old former Haryana INLD CM Om Prakash Chautala was sentenced to 4 years in jail over a corruption case.  He is the son of Devi Lal who is one of the "3 Lals" that dominated Haryana politics from the 1960s to the early 2000s.  This will be a heavy blow to INLD which was looking to revive itself.

Om Prakash Chautala's son and leader INLD splinter JJP Ajay Singh Chautala can expect to gain from this as far as holding on to the Jat vote is concerned.  INLD was hoping to take advantage of JJP's alliance with BJP to make a pitch for anti-BJP anti-farm law Jat votes in the upcoming local elections.  It seems with this news INLD's revival will be put on hold.

[jaichind]

Gujarat INC's proto-manifesto for upcoming assembly elections

a) LPG cylinders priced at INR 500
b) Subsidy of 5 INR per litre on milk
c)  Loan waivers for the farmers
d) Electricity Bill Half
e) GST tax abolition on farm implements, fertilizer, and seeds
f) Tricolor medical clinics in all urban areas.

In other words "free !!! free !!! free !!!"  Of course, BJP's likely election promises will look similar.  INC's main problem is that BJP seems to be better than INC at delivering on these promises with a lower middleman fee.

[jaichind]

3 by-elections counting took place today

Kerala-Thrikkakara

2021
INC          44.0%
Ind(CPM)  33.5%
BJP           11.4%
T20P         10.2% (Kerala AAP ally)

INC incumbent passed away.  INC ran his widow and won with very little change in vote share other than the INC candidate won over the T20P vote from 2021.  INC's win is fairly impressive given that the ruling bloc in Kerala is LDF and by-elections tend to tilt toward the ruling front.

2022 by-election
INC          53.8%
CPM         35.3%
BJP            9.6%




Odisha-Brajarajnagar

2019
BJD          49.1%
BJP           42.0%
CPI             5.7% (backed by INC)

A good part of the INC vote went over to BJP or BJD instead of voting for INC-backed CPI.  BJD incumbent passed away and BJD ran his widow and won in a landslide with a good chunk of the BJP vote going over to BJD.  BJP being the ruling party gives it an edge in by-elections and it shows here.  INC's performance is actually fairly credible.  BJP's performance is quite poor given the BJP actually won this seat in 2014.

2022 by-election
BJD          61.2%
INC          17.8%
BJP          15.1%
CPI            1.9%
INC rebel    1.3%




Uttarakhand-Champawat

2022
BJP          51.0%
INC          42.7%
AAP            4.0%

The BJP Uttarakhand CM Dhami lost his seat in the 2022 assembly elections but was selected by the BJP high command to continue as CM so the BJP MLA of this seat vacated his seat for Dhami to run in a by-election to enter the Uttarakhand assembly.  The result was a massive landslide for Dhami.  INC voters here decided that the BJP won the 2022 assembly elections fair and square so Dhami should be given the chance to continue as CM.

2022 by-election
BJP         92.4%
INC          5.2%

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-suspends-party-spokespersons-nupur-sharma-naveen-jindal-from-primary-membership-401233

"Denounce insult of religious personalities, says BJP as it suspends spokespersons Nupur Sharma, Naveen Jindal for controversial statement on Prophet Mohammad"

An illustrative story of what the boundaries are for the BJP as far as the Muslim issue is concerned.  

Traditionally the BJP line of attack is mostly to push "We are not against Muslims but we want Indian Muslims to be Indians first and Muslims second"   This has the benefit of clawings the Indian nationalist vote for INC and provoking an organized Muslim response against the BJPwhich can be used in a jujitsu move by the BJP to provoke a Hindu counter-consolidation for the BJP.

This time two BJP leaders insulted the Prophet publically and were suspended by the BJP.  The key issue here is the Arab trade.  The traditional BJP line does not upset Arab countries since they view that as pro-Indian nationalism and not anti-Muslim.  Coming out to insult the Prophet is a totally different story.   If the BJP did not act this could snowball into Arab economic sanctions on India which Modi for sure does not need right now with surging energy prices hitting the Indian economy already.

[jaichind]

Nupur Sharma, the BJP spokesperson that has been suspended by the BJP for publically insulting the Prophet, has gone to various media sources and social media to ask that her address not be made public for fear of her life.

[jaichind]

As Arab countries and Iran protest against the Indian government over two BJP leaders' insult of the Prophet, the Modi government refers to these leaders as "fringe elements" of the BJP.

[jaichind]

The 2 BJP leaders' comments insulting the Prophet are turning out to be a diplomatic fiasco for the Modi government in India

[jaichind]

A chart on why BJP is now between a rock and a hard place.



Remittances from Indians working in the Middle East add up to $35 billion every year and are also a significant reason why the BJP cannot afford to anger the Arab states.

In the meantime to calm things down the BJP has hired an outside vendor to look into other cases where BJP leaders have said things offensive to Muslims last few years.  This is getting significant blowback from BJP grassroots who are making this a free speech issue.   The fact is that the 2 BJP leaders that insulted the Prophet are office holders of the BJP but no the Indian government so the BJP base is angry why the Modi government has to placate the Arab countries over this issue.  Many of them are taking the position, which I agree with, of "we made disagree with what you say but you should have the right to say what you want to say."

Anyway, it seems the BJP is going to go the way of Western corporations when confronted by the woke mob and "look into" biases and maybe have "sensitivity and diversity" training sessions and hope after a while this thing blows over.  In the meantime, this is another reason India should look into importing more cheap oil from Russia.

[jaichind]

India Prez election schedule announced.

[jaichind]

Upper House elections.  BJP outperformed in Haryana and Maharashtra.  The failure of INC and JD(S) to work together in Karnataka also allowed the BJP to win 3 seats.  Only in Rajasthan did INC get some BJP defectors to allow them to win 3-1 over BJP.  Overall the ruling party in the state is able to maneuver things to outperform.  The exception is Maharashtra where the SHS-NCP-INC alliance which includes some small parties is so large and diverse that defection was inevitable leading to BJP winning 3 seats versus being kept to 2.

Going by pure numbers of MLA Maharashtra should have been BJP 2 SHS 2 NCP 1 INC 1, Haryana should have been BJP 1 INC 1, Rajasthan should have been INC 2 BJP 2, and Karnataka should have been BJP 2 INC 1 JD(S) 1 (had INC worked to transfer its surplus vote to JD(S) instead of running a second candidate which handed an extra seat to BJP).

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

RS seat distribution after the most recently RS elections.  The 7 vacant nominated seats will be pro-BJP once they are filled, and the vacant Tripura seat will be BJP, but in J&K BJP can get at most 2 and most likely 1 seat out of 4.  Net net, NDA cannot get to RS majority for a while but will have de facto majority once you factor in pro-BJP BJD and YSRCP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/agnipath-protests-home-ministry-announces-10-reservation-for-agniveers-in-central-police-forces-assam-rifles-3077943

"Amid Massive 'Agnipath' Protests, Centre Announces Big Concessions"

Modi rolled out reform in military recruitment which would focus the military on draftees and less on full-time soldiers.  This is mostly to cut costs.  This reform, like the farm reforms which had to be rolled back, is also facing large-scale protest and in some cases rioting.  The core issue still remains youth unemployment and reducing the number of full-time military employment will provoke a large number of unemployed youth on the streets.

Given the scale of protests and wanting to avoid the 2019-2021 farm law reform fiasco the Modi government is already rolling back some aspects of reforms with various loopholes in hope of getting critical sections of the protesters to end their protets.

[jaichind]

It seems anti-Agnipath military recruiting reforms protests has already burned 11 rail trains already.  As a result there large number cancelled and delayed trains all across India. 

[jaichind]

The violent student protests over the military recruiting reforms which have led to a large amount of destruction of public property are illogical.  They are protesting because they feel they are losing a chance at a military job.  But even if they get their way the protestors are making it clear to their likely future employer, the military, that they lack disciple and emotional balance.  It seems even if the reforms are fully or partly rolled back those that participated in the violent protest will not get jobs in the military one way or another.

[xelas81]

Aren't some groups (eg Sikhs) over represented in the Indian military?
Also decreasing the number of professional troops seems to go against BJP's goal of making India to superpower.

[jaichind]

Aren't some groups (eg Sikhs) over represented in the Indian military?
Also decreasing the number of professional troops seems to go against BJP's goal of making India to superpower.

I think this is more about quality over quantity.  The idea is instead of signing up everyone for 17 years you sign up a lot more people for 4 years with 1/4 of them being signed up for the full 17 years you can prioritize investment into the top 25%.  Also, the 75% that do not make the cut will get a lot of skills in the military which will make them qualified for a job after the 4-year military stint.  This would be the BJP spin on why this reform is a good idea.

Clearly, a bunch of students all set on going after this 17-year contract are very angry at this last-minute change and are going out of control with all sorts of protests and some of them being violent

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/agnipath-protests-y-category-security-for-2-bihar-deputy-chief-ministers-and-some-mlas-after-attacks-3079225

"From BJP Over 'Agnipath', Stinker For Nitish Kumar, Security For Leaders"

The anti-Agnipath protests are especially bad in Bihar with many BJP leaders' offices and homes attacked.  This is making the tense BJP-JD(U) relations even worse.   JD(U) Nitish Kumar does not seem to be a big fan of this reform which caught a lot of BJP allies off guard and the Bihar BJP leaders suspect that the Nitish Kumar is behind weak security protection for BJP leaders in Bihar which had led to damage to a lot of BJP offices.

[jaichind]

Aren't some groups (eg Sikhs) over represented in the Indian military?

Sikhs are over-represented.  The old system has many "regiments" which are regionally based but clearly, the "Sikh" regiments are larger relative to the Sikh population.  The new proposed system would get rid of the concept of regional "regiments" and make all of India into a mega labor market.  In that sense, the Sikhs have nothing to complain about since now to some extent the "quota" they were facing is now gone.

[jaichind]

There anti-Agnipath protest highlight an aspect of the Modi reform effort that makes no sense to me as someone that is in management.  Modi has come up with 3 big reforms since taking office.   First is demonetization in 2016 which was an execution fiasco but was a political winner, second is the farm reform law of 2019-2021 which faced heavy protests and had to be withdrawn, and now Agnipath reform which has provoked protest.

In all 3 cases, these reforms in principle seem like good ideas but Modi insisted on slamming these reforms on everyone as a surprise as opposed to doing a series of slow-selling of key stakeholders to a least make them feel that their views were taken into account.  Once there is some consensus on these reforms with the stakeholders then it makes send to account them as fait accompli.    Decisions can be good or quick but cannot be both.  For important decisions, you usually want to focus on "good" and not "quick." For some reason, Modi seems to like quick and worse unannounced.

The one reform that Modi rolled out reasonably successfully (although many on the ground would dispute this) is GST reform.  But that reform idea was really started under UPA and the Modi government took the reform idea over and rolled it out.

[jaichind]

India's military recruitment is very biased toward the Northern states.  Note that a good amount of people from Nepal are recruited and serve in Gurka regiments.  A lot of veterans often retire to HP and Uttarakhand and as a result, many of their children have a bias toward wanting to join the military.  In Punjab, the numbers are very biased toward the Sikh population.

[Frodo]

India's military recruitment is very biased toward the Northern states.  Note that a good amount of people from Nepal are recruited and serve in Gurka regiments.  A lot of veterans often retire to HP and Uttarakhand and as a result, many of their children have a bias toward wanting to join the military.  In Punjab, the numbers are very biased toward the Sikh population.

As it happens, I read somewhere that the Pakistani army derives most of its recruits from the same general region, namely the provinces of Sindh and Punjab.  There seems to be an established longstanding warrior tradition there, which would make sense.  Since time immemorial, invasions have typically come through the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent through the Khyber Pass, so the inhabitants would have had to get used to fighting.  

[jaichind]

As it happens, I read somewhere that the Pakistani army derives most of its recruits from the same general region, namely the provinces of Sindh and Punjab.  There seems to be an established longstanding warrior tradition there, which would make sense.  Since time immemorial, invasions have typically come through the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent through the Khyber Pass, so the inhabitants would have had to get used to fighting.  

This has to do with the Great Indian Mutiny of 1857.  Sikh troops were very active in helping British troops put down the rebellion.  Of course, that is partly revenge for Hindu/Muslims in the Hindi heartland not rising up to help the Sikhs n the Anglo-Sikh wars of the 1840s.  Afterward, the UK decided to really incorporate more Sikhs in their Indian forces.