India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[OSR stands with Israel]

Households in India own refrigerators.  Gives a sense of the relative strength of the mass consumer economy in each state.  The high numbers in Kerala, TN, and Mizoram are more of an indication of the income distribution.  High numbers in the North like HP, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttarakhand indicate the high income and more normal income distribution there.  The richest state Maharastra has a surprisingly low number indicating something about its income distribution.  Similar story for Gujarat.

Also, there is a clear negative correlation with Hindi-speaking areas.  Meaning if you speak Hindi you are not likely to have a refrigerator at home.

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

[jaichind]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

ah didnt see that , but those numbers seem very low from what I would have thought.

[jaichind]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

ah didnt see that , but those numbers seem very low from what I would have thought.

I think the urban-rural gap is large so anyone that spent more time in urban India would get a false impression of the overall number.  In rural areas, I also suspect it has a lot to do with power shortages.  What is the point of getting a refrigerator if power is cut for 4 hours a day and the food goes bad anyway.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this also 2011 cause those numbers seem very low

The map explicitly states that the data is from 2019-2021

ah didnt see that , but those numbers seem very low from what I would have thought.

I think the urban-rural gap is large so anyone that spent more time in urban India would get a false impression of the overall number.  In rural areas, I also suspect it has a lot to do with power shortages.  What is the point of getting a refrigerator if power is cut for 4 hours a day and the food goes bad anyway.

makes sense as when I visit India, I basically visit urban areas there and not rural

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bihar is at 10%, not really surprising.
Why is Meghalaya so high?

[jaichind]

Bihar is at 10%, not really surprising.
Why is Meghalaya so high?

I think you mean Mizoram.  Mizoram is the NE state that has the highest per capita income by far. Politically Mizoram has been more stable than other NE states with a lot less insurgency and as a result a much more balanced economy.  It also has a more even distribution of income.  In many ways, Mizoram is the Kerala of the NE.

India has been shifting subsidies to the NE for decades.  Most of it is eaten up by the local elites who often are linked to the local insurgents whose only job is to act up and get the central government to send more cash.   This dynamic is really not there in Mizoram.

[jaichind]

ABP poll on PM Modi job approval.  Massive positive numbers out of Gujarat and HP.  The state-level governments there, especially HP, are not that popular but as Uttrakhand and Goa showed earlier this year Modi could pull BJP across the finishing line if there is no strong local opposition counter-narrative.  Note that AAP was able to win the 2020 Delhi assembly elections despite the clear popularity of Modi there mostly based on the AAP Arvind Kejriwal counternarrative.  So for JMM's Hemant Soren in Jharkhand 2019 assembly elections.  

What is also interesting is Modi's UP numbers are not that great which shows that the 2021 BJP win in UP was in good part Yogi Adityanath and the lack of an acceptance of SP's Akhilesh Yadav beyond a Yadav leader.

The bad news for BJP is that in HP the local BJP government is even more unpopular than the BJP government in Uttrakhand but the good news is that Modi is even more popular in HP than in Uttrakhand.

Looking at Tripura's numbers the BJP will clearly be in trouble there in the 2023 assembly elections.

[jaichind]

Similar map for households with AC or Cooler.


This might be less reflective of income as much as "where in India are there heat waves?"  Map of most recent India heatwave

[OSR stands with Israel]

I was thinking of this analogy lately but tell me if you think this accurate. In some ways politics in India someway mirror the South here.

Both places were very culturally conservative along with very rural places and despite that were completely dominated by the more left leaning party for decades and decades in large parts due to historical affinity for that party. In both cases the right leaning parties first found strength with middle class voters in urban areas and then used that as a springboard to gain more and more influence.

Vajpayee victories in many ways seem like the early mid 1980s south were you see a pre dominantly urban party gain power through strength in urban/suburban areas but are unable to hold power for long which leads to a period of one final period of power for the historically dominant party .

1994 also seems like 2014 where Republicans and BJP make huge inroads in rural areas and pretty much finally supplant the Democrats/Congress as the dominant party. Then despite holding power both the GOP/BJP make further gains for years on end as they are able to start to make permanent inroads with voters in rural areas and regions which were once hostile territory for the party .



So it could be any left party that takes party in India now will probably have to do it through making massive inroads in Urban areas as the old INC coalition seems dead

[randomusername]

I was thinking of this analogy lately but tell me if you think this accurate. In some ways politics in India someway mirror the South here.

Both places were very culturally conservative along with very rural places and despite that were completely dominated by the more left leaning party for decades and decades in large parts due to historical affinity for that party. In both cases the right leaning parties first found strength with middle class voters in urban areas and then used that as a springboard to gain more and more influence.

Vajpayee victories in many ways seem like the early mid 1980s south were you see a pre dominantly urban party gain power through strength in urban/suburban areas but are unable to hold power for long which leads to a period of one final period of power for the historically dominant party .

1994 also seems like 2014 where Republicans and BJP make huge inroads in rural areas and pretty much finally supplant the Democrats/Congress as the dominant party. Then despite holding power both the GOP/BJP make further gains for years on end as they are able to start to make permanent inroads with voters in rural areas and regions which were once hostile territory for the party .



So it could be any left party that takes party in India now will probably have to do it through making massive inroads in Urban areas as the old INC coalition seems dead

I don't completely agree with this, but to further the analogy, the Democratic party was the de facto party of the South. As a result factions within the party bubbled up. As you could see with Indira Gandhi's faction vs the INC (O)/Syndicate. In addition, both share a commonality of having a lot of dynastic politicians. For the Congress, the Gandhis, Scindias, Pilots, etc. For the South you had the Longs, Wallaces, Pryors, Folsoms, etc.

[jaichind]

I was thinking of this analogy lately but tell me if you think this accurate. In some ways politics in India someway mirror the South here.

Both places were very culturally conservative along with very rural places and despite that were completely dominated by the more left leaning party for decades and decades in large parts due to historical affinity for that party. In both cases the right leaning parties first found strength with middle class voters in urban areas and then used that as a springboard to gain more and more influence.

Vajpayee victories in many ways seem like the early mid 1980s south were you see a pre dominantly urban party gain power through strength in urban/suburban areas but are unable to hold power for long which leads to a period of one final period of power for the historically dominant party .

1994 also seems like 2014 where Republicans and BJP make huge inroads in rural areas and pretty much finally supplant the Democrats/Congress as the dominant party. Then despite holding power both the GOP/BJP make further gains for years on end as they are able to start to make permanent inroads with voters in rural areas and regions which were once hostile territory for the party .



So it could be any left party that takes party in India now will probably have to do it through making massive inroads in Urban areas as the old INC coalition seems dead

This comparison begins to perhaps be apt if one only focuses on the Hindi heartland which is fairly socially conservative but has become more economically populist over time.  The INC coalition of the 1950s and 1960s is fairly different from the INC coalition of the 1970s and 1980s.   

The INC coalition of the 195s0 and 1960s was based on residue support for Indian nationalism plus local rural Upper caste elites.  Rural laborers that are dependent on local rural elites vote the way they are told.  It is the higher OBC small landowners plus urban small business owners that are outside the INC system.  Note during this period the local INC was just as hostile to Muslims as BJS and the INC was more likely to behind anti-Muslim riots to consolidate its own on the Hindu vote.

With the INC split of 1969, this system broke down with a lot of the Upper caste landed elites going with INC(O) and eventually into JNP and then eventually BJP in 1989-1991.  The Indira Gandhi INC became a populist party as well greatly increased its Muslim vote due to the rise of BJS.  So here INC's appeal is not through local elites but through the populist image of its leader Indira Gandhi.  It is at this stage the Gandhi family became indispensable to the INC electoral prospects.

One can make the argument that the 1950s and 1960s Hindi heartland were like the Solid South in the USA but the Solid South Democratic machine always had a populist edge to it that was missing in the 1950s and 1960s INC machine.

Eventually, the BJP did over time become the dominant party of the Hindi heartland by building an Upper caste, Lower OBC, and Dalit coalition but like the INC in the 1970s and 1980s it had a direct appeal to each one of these blocs through religions and populist appeal versus elite management of the INC in the 1950s and 1960s.  And as you pointed out BJS/BJP did first get started with urban small business owners.  For this transformation to take place the INC system of the 1950s and 1960s had to breakdown first which it did.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tripura-chief-minister-biplab-deb-resigns-a-year-ahead-of-assembly-election-news-agency-pti-2975606

"Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Deb Resigns A Year Ahead Of Elections"



Tripura BJP CM Deb resigns after a trip to Delhi.  The BJP is clearly in trouble in Tripura ahead of the 2023 assembly.  Their only real hope is that a new CM will blunt anti-incumbency and that AITC, INC, and Left Front will split the anti-BJP vote in the 2023 assembly election.

[jaichind]

It seems Manik Saha who was in the INC before defecting to BJP in 2016 and became a RS MP earlier this year will become the new BJP of Tripura.  This better fits the pattern of NE BJP CMs where all of them are pretty much INC defectors.  Biplab Deb was unique in the sense that he was an old BJP stalwart and led the BJP to victory in the 2018 Tripura assembly elections and became CM.

In the meantime

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/ipft-bjps-main-ally-in-tripura-stares-at-a-split/articleshow/91550830.cms

"IPFT, BJP's main ally in Tripura, stares at a split"

It seems Tripura BJP tribal ally IPFT is headed to a vertical split.  If so then the BJP bloc will most likely see a complete wipeout in tribal areas at the hands of  TIPRA especially if  TIPRA  forms an alliance with AITC.

[jaichind]

With Manik Saha becoming BJP CM of Tripura that takes the number of non-INC CMs that have an INC background to be 10.

1) Himant Biswa Sharma(Assam, BJP)
2) Prema Khandu(Arunachal Pradesh, BJP)
3) N Biren Singh(Manipur, BJP)
4) Manik Saha(Tripura, BJP)
5) N Rio (Nagaland, NDPP)
6) Mamata Banerjee (WB, AITC)
7) YS Jaganmohan Reddy (AP, YSRCP)
8 ) N Rangaswamy (Puducherry, AINRC)
9) Conrad Sangma (Meghalaya, NPP)
10) K Chandrashekar Rao (Telangana, TRS)

To be fair the last two had very junior roles in INC when they shifted to another party (Conrad Sangma followed his father who co-founded NCP, and KCR followed N. Chandrababu Naidu to join TDP).  The first 8 had fairly senior roles in INC when they bolted from INC and then went on to become CM.

[jaichind]

History of HP elections

HP was part of Punjab before partition and was a union territory until it was made into a state in 1970



HP has a tiny Muslim population and has an Upper Caste skew without a dominant OBC caste to challenge Upper Caste social and economic domination (like Jats in Haryana).  As a result politics in HP revolve around a series of Upper Caste kingpins.  

Up until 1975, HP was dominated by the INC with BJS (proto-BJP) being the main but weak opposition.  The emergency turned local Upper caste elites against INC and BJS joined up with various other opposition parties (INC(O), SP, BLD, etc) from JNP to take on INC in 1977.  In HP the JNP is really 80% BJS.  

The INC CM of HP was old INC stalwart Yashwant Singh Parmar but he ran afoul of Indira and Sanjay Gandhi was removed CM right before the 1977 LS elections and replaced with Gandhi clan loyalist Thakur Ram Lal.  The anti-INC JNP wave in the Hindi heartland was massive but made even worse in HP as INC voters aligned with Yashwant Singh Parmar most likely went JNP as well.

1977 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
JNP              4                4                 57.19%  (JNP is mostly BJS)

INC              4                0                 38.58%

CPI              1                0                   1.38%  (CPI backed INC in the other 3 seats)



After JNP came to power at the federal level many Northern Indian INC state governments were dismissed and new assembly elections were called.    Just like the 1977 LS elections, INC was defeated by a landslide but JNP and INC rebels ate up a good amount of the vote share.

1977 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
JNP             68               53                49.01% (JNP is mostly BJS)

JNP rebel                         3                 7.26%

INC+          64               10                29.78%  (tactical alliance with CPI)

INC rebel                         2                  6.08%

CPI              8                 0                   2.38%  (tactical alliance with INC+)

With INC's defeat INC CM Thakur Ram Lal was ousted and replaced with JNP's Shanta Kumar hos is an old BJS stalwart even though given how weak BJS was in HP many of the JNP MLA winners really have INC backgrounds.


The JNP government at the federal level collapsed by 1979 with JNP(S) splitting from JNP.  The 1980 LS elections saw INC storm back to power at the federal level and win a solid victory in HP.

1980 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
JNP              4                0                 36.38%  (JNP is mostly BJS)

INC              4                4                 52.08%

JNP(S)          4                0                  5.31%

CPI              1                0                   1.94%

With INC back in power at the federal level, a large bloc of the HP JNP MLAs defected to INC leading to the return of Thakur Ram Lal as CM.  At the same time, BJP split out from the JNP which turned HP into a bipolar INC vs BJP state.

[jaichind]

As the 1982 HP assembly election approaches the INC government at the federal level as well as the HP INC goverment led by Thakur Ram Lal is facing increasing anti-incumbency.  As a result, INC failed to win a majority as it was hurt by a large number of INC rebels.

1982 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          68               30                35.97%

BJP rebel                        0                  2.92%

INC+         68                31                42.75%

INC rebel                        4                  5.61%
         
JNP            49                 2                  4.75%

JNP rebel                        1                   0.69%

LKD           30                 0                   1.45% (JNP(S) became LKD)

CPI+          23                 0                   1.88% (CPM part of INC+)

Thakur Ram Lal was able to return to power despite INC not winning a majority mostly by buying off various INC rebel winners to cobble up a majority.  This arrangement could not last long and in 1983 INC high command decided to have a fresh start by moving Thakur Ram Lal to the federal level and putting in key Rajput leader Virbhadra Singh as CM. 

In 1984 Indira Gandhi was assassinated leading to fresh federal elections which INC swept with a massive landslide due to the sympathy factor despite BJP forming an alliance with LKD.

1984 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+            4                0                 24.32%  (LKD was part of BJP+)

INC              4                4                 67.58%

JNP+            4                0                  4.51%  (CPI was part of JNP+)

After the 1984 LS landslide, Thakur Ram Lal moved in quickly to call a snap assembly election to increase the INC's slim majority and as expected he was able to take advantage of the afterglow of the 1984 INC landslide to win a large INC majority despite JNP and LKD joining forces with BJP.

1985 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          68                8               35.42% (JNP and LKD were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 0.78%
JNP rebel                        0                 1.72%

INC           68               58               55.46%

INC rebel                       2                 2.34%

CPI+         23                 0                 2.13% (CPM part of CPI+)

INC's Thakur Ram Lal returned to power with a massive mandate.

[jaichind]

After INC's Virbhadra Singh's re-election in 1985, the fortunes of the INC at the national level declined.  Various INC corruption scandals led to the VP Singh uniting the Center-Left opposition to INC under JD by merging JNP and LKD.   In the 1989 LS elections, JD was able to defeat INC through tactical alliances with BJP and Left Front.  In HP there was no such tactical alliance given BJP's strength in the state and such was the anti-incumbency energy BJP edged out INC in HP

1989 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                3                 45.25%

INC              4                1                 41.97%

JD+              4                0                  9.00% (CPI CPM were part of JD+)


For the 1990 HP assembly elections JD ditched the Left parties and joined the BJP to ensure the defeat of INC.  Such was the strength of the BJP-JD combine that INC lost in a landslide especially given anti-incumbency at the state level post the JD government with BJP support at the federal level was still in its honeymoon period.

1990 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          68               57                52.61% (JD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                         0                 0.83%
JD rebel                          0                  0.34%

INC+         68                  9                37.56%

INC rebel                        1                  1.71%

CPI+          25                 1                  2.64%


With BJP's victory once again BJP's Shanta Kumar returned as CM.  At the federal level, the JD government soon fell apart in 1991 as BJP withdrew support and JD(S) split from JD.   In the early LS elections, INC and BJP were evenly split.  At the national level, Rajiv Gandhi's assassination allowed the INC to edge out a victory and form a minority government.

1991 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                2                 46.16%

INC              4                2                 42.79%

JD                4                0                  7.00%
 
JD(S)           4                 0                 1.29%


After the return of INC at the federal level, anti-incumbency built up against Shanta Kumar's BJP government.  Then in late 1992, the Demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya led to riots across several states.   The INC government claimed that 3 BJP state governments including HP had failed to stop communal riots and dismissed those governments.  Several months later new assembly elections were called which led to an INC landslide victory despite a significant number of INC rebels.

1993 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+          68                 8                36.14%

BJP rebel                         0                 0.84%

INC+         68                52               49.37%

INC rebel                        7                  6.88%

BSP           49                 0                  2.25%

JD             32                 0                  1.09%

CPI+         18                 1                  1.82%

INC's Virbhadra Singh was returned to power.  The Dalit-based BSP began to become a force while JD continued their decline into an non-entity but overall HP continued to be a BJP-INC bipolor state.

[jaichind]

After INC's Virbhadra Singh victory in 1993 INC seems to have done a good job countering anti-incumbency.  As a result in the 1996 LS elections even though INC was defeated nationally leading to a minority JD government INC swept the LS polls in HP.

1996 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                0                 39.62%

INC              4                4                 54.33%

SP+              4                0                  2.09% (CPI CPM were part of SP+)


INC losing power nationally actually triggered a split in the HP INC.  HP Brahmin kingpin Sukh Ram who was an INC MP from HP and a minister in the INC government at the federal level from 1991-to 1996 was investigated for corruption by the incoming JD government leading to Sukh Ram and his son Anil Sharma being expelled by the INC.  The pair then formed HVC and contested the 1998 LS elections when the JD minority government fell 1998.  This time the popularity of BJP CM candidate Vajpayee, the INC losing the Brahmin vote due to the Sukh Ram rebellion, and anti-incumbency at the state level led to the BJP beating out the INC in the LS elections in 1998

1998 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                3                 51.43%

INC              4                1                 41.90%

HVC             4                0                   3.57%


The BJP won the 1998 LS election and the NDA was able to form the government at the federal level.  The BJP was hoping to follow up on this success by winning the 1998 HP assembly elections and decided to put up its key Rajput leader Prem Kumar Dhumal as its CM face and have Shanta Kumar move to the federal government.  But due to HVC winning a bunch of seats the election threw up a hung assembly

1998 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP           68                31                43.51%

BJP rebel                         1                 1.63%

INC+         68               31                 39.02%

INC rebel                        0                  1.80%

HVC           62                 5                  9.63%

BSP           28                  0                  1.41%




After the election BJP formed an alliance with HVC and Prem Kumar Dhumal was able to form a BJP-HVC coalition government.  The NDA government at the federal level soon fell due to AIADMK pulling out of NDA and another LS election was needed.  The BJP formed an alliance with its state government ally HVC and swept the polls in HP based on the popularity of BJP PM Vajpayee, the Rajput-Brahmin appeal of CM Prem Kumar Dhumal, and HVC's Sukh Ram plus the new BJP-HVC being in its honeymoon period.

1999 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP+            4                4                 58.64% (HVC was part of BJP+)

INC              4                0                 39.52%


The NDA swept the LS election nationally and was returned to power with a solid majority.

[jaichind]

By the time the 2002 HP assembly election came around the Prem Kumar Dhumal BJP government was clearly in trouble as anti-incumbency set in.   The BJP and HVC had a falling out had HVC ran separately from BJP and the result was an INC victory led once again by Virbhadra Singh with a large number of BJP and INC rebels in the fray.

2002 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP           68                16                35.38%

BJP rebel                         2                 5.26%

INC+         68               43                 41.00%

INC rebel                        4                  5.17%

HVC          49                  1                  5.87%

LMHP        14                  1                  2.17% (INC splinter)

LJP           27                   1                 1.00%


In the aftermath of Virbhadra Singh leading the INC to victory and power and a third stint as CM,  Sukh Ram merged his HVC back into INC again although this will not be the last we hear of him.  HVC merging back into INC helped to give INC the edge in the 2004 LS elections which INC was expected to lose nationally but proto-UPA narrowly defeated NDA to win power at the federal level.

2004 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                1                 44.24%

INC              4                3                 51.89%
 
BSP              4                0                  1.74%


With UPA coming to power at the federal level by the time the 2007 HP assembly election came around it was INC's turn to face double anti-incumbency as BJP led once again by Prem Kumar Dhumal defeated  Virbhadra Singh's INC.  BSP had a surge just like across North India and mostly took more Dalit votes from INC hurting INC along the way.

2007 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP           68                41                43.78%

BJP rebel                         3                 3.99%

INC+         68               23                 39.62%

INC rebel                        0                  2.30%

BSP          67                  1                  7.26%



With BJP's victory, Prem Kumar Dhumal returned for a second time as CM of HP.  The 2009 LS elections saw UPA return to power at the federal level but the BJP had a small edge over INC in the LS elections in HP as the BSP surge waned and some Dalit votes went back to INC.

2009 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                3                 49.58%

INC              4                1                 45.61%

BSP              4                0                  1.59%

[jaichind]

In the 2012 HP assembly elections following the established pattern, the INC returned to power with Virbhadra Singh leading it to become CM for the 4th time.  BJP splinter HLP being in the fray as well as a large number of BJP rebels make it worse for the BJP.

2012 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP           68                 26               38.47%

BJP rebel                         2                 6.03%

HLP           33                  1                 1.93% (BJP splinter)

INC           68                36                42.81%

INC rebel                        3                  3.52%

BSP          66                  0                  1.17%

CPM         16                   0                  1.16%



The INC resurgence in HP was cut short by the Modi wave that swept all of Northern India in the 2014 LS elections where the BJP won by a large margin.

2014 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                4                 53.85%

INC              4                0                 41.07%
 
AAP              4                0                  2.06%


Given the BJP surge in HP, it was assumed that the BJP will be swept to power in 2017 by a landslide.  It is due to such prospects that the former HVC leader Sukh Ram who with his son Anil Sharma folded up HVC and merged back in 2004 decided to defect with his son to the BJP ahead of the HP assembly elections.  The result was a solid BJP win but INC actually held its own in terms of vote share and somewhat overperformed.

2017 HP assembly election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP           68                 44               49.23%

BJP rebel                         1                 1.76%

INC           68                21                42.06%

INC rebel                        1                  2.82%

CPM          14                  1                  1.48%
 


The BJP was led once more by Prem Kumar Dhumal who was expected to become CM for the third time.  But he unexpectedly lost his seat so the BJP went with Jai Ram Thakur to become the CM.  As the 2019 LS election approached former INC kingpin and now BJP leader Sukh Ram wanted his grandson Aayush Sharma to contest for the BJP.  The BJP rejected his desire stating that since his son Anil Sharma was a minister in the BJP HP government this violated the BJP "one family one ticket" rule.  In anger, Sukh Ram defected with his grandson back to INC who gave Aayush Sharma a ticket while his son Aayush Sharma stayed in the BJP.  The result was a massive Modi wave that swept away Aayush Sharma and the rest of the INC.

2019 HP LS election
 
              Contest          Won           Vote Share
BJP              4                4                 69.71%

INC              4                0                 27.53%

The 2019 LS elections and their aftermath saw many titans of HP politics fade away from HP politics.   Two-time BJP CM Shanta Kumar retired from politics after being moved to federal politics to make way for Prem Kumar Dhumal in 1998. 4-time INC CM Virbhadra Singh passed away in 2021 due to COVID-19.  INC and then BJP leader HVC founder Sukh Ram also passed away in 2022. 

For the 2022 HP assembly elections BJP will project CM Jai Ram Thakur as its leader while INC will project Virbhadra Singh's widow Pratibha Singh as its leader.  In theory, 2-time BJP CM Prem Kumar Dhumal is out of politics but he still seems to be active waiting to jump back into state politics if somehow Jai Ram Thakur falter.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, we have a situation where either INC leader Hardik Patel leaves INC and most likely joins BJP and Naresh Patel joins INC to become its CM face in Gujarat or  Hardik Patel stays in INC and Naresh Patel stays out of politics or even joins BJP.   This perfectly fits the Chinese saying "一山不容二虎" or "one mountain cannot contain two tigers."  One way or another the INC is going with a Patel face for the Gujarat elections and the decision is which Patel.  The more likely scenario is Naresh Patel joins INC to become its leader while Hardik Patel leaves INC to join BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/hardik-patel-quits-congress-amid-gujarat-unit-infighting-2985819

"Hardik Patel Exits Congress, "Chicken Sandwich" Swipe At Rahul Gandhi"

Gujarat INC leader and hero of the 2017 Gujarat assembly surprise INC performance Hardik Patel quits INC and most likely will join BJP soon.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/kuldeep-bishnoi-meets-manohar-lal-khattar-sparks-speculation-about-his-next-move-1110680.html

"Kuldeep Bishnoi meets Manohar Lal Khattar, sparks speculation about his next move"

Haryana INC leader Kuldeep Bishnoi it seems might defect to BJP. 

Kuldeep Bishnoi is the son of Bhajan Lal, one of the famous "3 Lals of Haryana", and comes from a long line of defectors.

Bhajan Lal was a key INC leader in Haryana but defected to JNP after the JNP landslide in 1977.  Bhajan Lal was then made the CM of Haryana in 1979 after the JNP split and one of the other "3 Lals" CM Devi Lal left JNP to help form JNP(S) and was ousted as CM.  After the 1980 LS elections which ended with an INC landslide victory, Bhajan Lal took the most of the JNP caucus to defect to IN and continued as INC CM. 

Toward the end of Bhajan Lal's life, he and his son Kuldeep Bishnoi left INC to form HJC in 2007.   After being beaten by the INC in 2009,  Bhajan Lal passed away in 2011 and handed control of the party to Kuldeep Bishnoi who then formed an alliance with the BJP but had a falling out soon after 2014.   In 2016 Kuldeep Bishnoi merged HJC back into INC. 

Now with chances low that Kuldeep Bishnoi will be allowed to be the INC CM candidate in the 2024 Haryana assembly elections he might be jumping ship to BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/kapil-sibal-quits-congress-files-rs-nomination-from-sp-398001

"Kapil Sibal quits Congress, files nomination for Rajya Sabha with Samajwadi Party support"

Leader of INC rebel group G23 and Upper House MP Kapil Sibal finally quits INC to join SP.  G23 is an opposition faction within INC that is mostly anti-Gandhi and seeks the ouster of the Gandhi clan from INC leadership.  Kapil Sibal leaving INC mostly means G23 will most likely fold but will also project an image that INC is intolerant of dissent.