India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

To summarize:
Goa BJP+MGP? BJP-Hold? BJP 20/40
Manipur BJP+NPF or NPP?    BJP-Hold?   BJP 24/52 (60)
Punjab AAP  AAP-gain AAP 92/117
Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP-hold BJP 253/403
Uttarakhand BJP BJP-Hold BJP 48/70

Goa- Is BJP+MGP likely or will BJP go with someone other?
Manipur - Is  BJP+NPF likely or NPP or both?

Goa I think BJP can rope in some independents and then get more defectors.  No need for BJP for an alliance with any other party.  Same for Manipur.  BJP is close enough to the majority that they can just rope in some independents and defectors.   No need for BJP to do deals with NPP NGP nor JD(U).

[jaichind]

For INC:

a) Worst result in Manipur ever, even worse than its 2000 landslide defeat
b) Worst result in Goa ever, even worse than tits 2012 landslide defeat
c) Worst result in Punjab ever other than the 1997 landslide defeat. 
d) Worst result in UP ever, even worse than its 2017 defeat
d) Worst result in Uttarakhand ever other than its 2017 defeat.  This is qualified since INC did even worse in the 1993-2002 period before Uttarakhand became a state.

[jaichind]

In Manipur and Goa, the BJP vote share went up only marginally (around 1% each) relative to 2017 but won significantly more seats due to the splintering of the anti-BJP vote.  In Punjab BJP vote share also went up 1% but lost a bunch of seats due to not being in an alliance with SAD.

The BJP vote share went up around 1% relative to 2017 in all states except for Uttarakhand where it lost around 2% of the vote share.

[jaichind]

In Punjab, I think now there will be a race to see who becomes the alternative to AAP.  If SAD can recreate its alliance with BJP there might be a future where SAD-BJP becomes the main alternative to AAP with INC almost disappearing over the next couple of election cycles like in Delhi.  For INC there is no time to lose.  If they can get their act together and resolve this Channi vs Sidhu fued they can still be the main alternative to AAP and squeeze out SAD-BJP.

[FredLindq]

To summarize:
Goa BJP+MGP? BJP-Hold? BJP 20/40
Manipur BJP+NPF or NPP?    BJP-Hold?   BJP 24/52 (60)
Punjab AAP  AAP-gain AAP 92/117
Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP-hold BJP 253/403
Uttarakhand BJP BJP-Hold BJP 48/70

Goa- Is BJP+MGP likely or will BJP go with someone other?
Manipur - Is  BJP+NPF likely or NPP or both?

Goa I think BJP can rope in some independents and then get more defectors.  No need for BJP for an alliance with any other party.  Same for Manipur.  BJP is close enough to the majority that they can just rope in some independents and defectors.   No need for BJP to do deals with NPP NGP nor JD(U).

Are they not any stragegical reason for wider alliances in these states in order to prepare for the LS elections?

[jaichind]

To summarize:
Goa BJP+MGP? BJP-Hold? BJP 20/40
Manipur BJP+NPF or NPP?    BJP-Hold?   BJP 24/52 (60)
Punjab AAP  AAP-gain AAP 92/117
Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP-hold BJP 253/403
Uttarakhand BJP BJP-Hold BJP 48/70

Goa- Is BJP+MGP likely or will BJP go with someone other?
Manipur - Is  BJP+NPF likely or NPP or both?

Goa I think BJP can rope in some independents and then get more defectors.  No need for BJP for an alliance with any other party.  Same for Manipur.  BJP is close enough to the majority that they can just rope in some independents and defectors.   No need for BJP to do deals with NPP NGP nor JD(U).

Are they not any stragegical reason for wider alliances in these states in order to prepare for the LS elections?

If Modi is at the head of the BJP ticket then the BJP calculation is that these small parties will have to come to them in a LS election and not the other way around.

[jaichind]

With BJP at around 250 seat and BJP alliance at 270 seats, UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath clearly passed psychological bar around 230 seats to become CM again.  Given the size of the BJP victory I think one can begin to argue that Yogi Adityanath is now more likely than Amit Shah to be Modi's successor.  2029 LS elections might be Yogi Adityanath vs Arvind Kejriwal if INC implodes or Yogi Adityanath vs Rahul Gandhi vs Arvind Kejriwal if INC does not implode.

[jaichind]

I think if you go to UP INC before the election and tell them that INC will win more seats in UP than BSP they will be doing backflips since that most likely means INC will have won a double-digit number of seats.  Of course one of the more cruel ironies is then you show INC the result with INC winning 2 seats and BSP winning 1.

Likewise, if you were to go to the Manipur JD(U) and NPP and tell them both that their seat count will exceed the INC seat count, they will be ecstatic both at the number of MLAs they would have won and the fact that they would almost certainly become kingmakers.  Then you should them the result of NPP 8 JD(U) 6 INC 4 and their face would turn long again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So this will mean that the AAP will have as many CMs as Congress. Quite a thing to consider.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/goa-election-results-2022-in-goa-bjp-leads-after-hung-house-prediction-2814185

"Regional Party MGP Extends Support, BJP Strength Now 25 In Goa"

BJP has 20 seats, MGP with 2 seats also now supports BJP.  3 independents (1 pro-AAP, 1 INC rebel, 1 independent with now-defunct UGP background).

[jaichind]

I already mapped out Goa results

                  Contest       Won         Vote share
BJP                 40            20              33.68%

BJP rebels                         0               2.93%

INC+              40            12              25.58%  (GFP is part of INC+)

INC rebels                        1                2.68%

AITC+            39              2              12.95% (MGP is part of AITC, backed BJP rebel in 1 seat)

MGP rebel                        0                 0.96%

RGP               38              1                 9.92%

AAP+              40             3                 7.87%

NCP+              24             0                 1.34% (SHS part of NCP+)

Ind-UGP           1              1                 0.59% (independent with defunct UGP background)

It seems RGP and AITC ate up a bunch of the INC Christian vote throwing the race to BJP.

[jaichind]

Manipur results

Only BJP is competitive almost everywhere with the non-BJP vote being splintered

                  Contest       Won         Vote share
BJP                 60            32              38.04%

BJP rebel                          2                2.30%

INC+              54              5              16.95% (CPI is part of INC+)

INC rebel                          0                0.58%

NPP               38               7              17.39%

NPP rebel                         0                0.15%

JD(U)            38                6             10.83%

NPF+            11                5               8.29%
 
NPF rebel                          1               1.05%

KPA               2                 2               1.02%  (non-Naga tribal)

RPI(A)           9                 0                1.38%

NCP+            9                 0                0.95%

SHS               9                0                0.34%

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

My grandparents now live next to half of Congress's MLA's in UP. Funny thought.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/uttarakhand-assembly-election/why-uttarakhand-cm-pushkar-singh-dhami-lost-elections-despite-bjp-s-victory-101646918446870.html

"Why Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami lost elections despite BJP’s victory"

Despite BJP win in Uttarakhand, BJP CM Pushkar Singh Dhami lost his seat


https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/punjab-assembly-election/cm-channi-defeated-from-bhadaur-chamkaur-sahib-101646911798508.html

"CM Channi defeated from Bhadaur, Chamkaur Sahib"

Punjab INC CM Channi loses both seats he was contesting


https://swarajyamag.com/politics/punjaap-the-great-political-reset-that-decimated-badals-channi-sidhu-and-captain-amarinder-singh

Former Punjab INC CM Captain Amarinder Singh and leader of PLC was defeated as was INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu. 

So after all those Navjot Singh Sidhu vs Captain Amarinder Singh battles followed by Navjot Singh Sidhu vs Channi battles all three are defeated. 


https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/punjab-election-results-2022-after-aap-bashing-no-badal-family-member-in-punjab-assembly-after-3-decades-2815219

"After 3 Decades, Punjab Assembly Will Have No Badal Family Member"

Also, the Badal clan of the SAD were also wiped out.  For the time in 3 decades, there will be no Badal family member in the Punjab assembly.

[omar04]

Priyanka Gandhi should be pretty embarrassed with her UP campaign losing all of Rae Bareli and Amethi and sliding to just two seats from seven. The INC has missed almost every opportunity for introspection after defeat so far.

https://www.republicworld.com/elections/punjab/election-results-2022-ashwani-kumar-says-congress-will-be-reduced-to-a-regional-outfit-articleshow.html

[jaichind]

Punjab results

Captain Amarinder Singh PLC's poor vote share in seats contested indicates that even if INC retained Captain Amarinder Singh he would still have led INC to a defeat.  This pretty much means INC was doomed from the beginning.  

BSP underperformed in Hindu areas but it seems a lot of the Hindu votes went AAP sweeping INC anyway.  BSP only won one seat because an INC rebel split the INC vote and let in BSP.

LIP totally imploded as its vote base went over to AAP, even in the Bain's brother's Ludhiana core.

SAD radical splinter SAD(M) did well which speaks to disillusionment toward the SAD with the core SAD base.

Farm protest parties SSM-SSP mostly bombed which shows that since Modi withdrew these farm reform laws the issue has pretty much died as a political issue.

                  Contest       Won         Vote share        Vote share in
                                                                        seats contested
AAP               117            92           42.31%

INC               117            18           23.14%

INC rebel                          1             0.69%

SAD+            117              4           20.30%
  SAD                97               3            18.52%          22.01%
  BSP                20                1             1.78%          11.22%

SAD(M)           81              0             2.50%              3.62%

BJP+            116               2             7.79%
  BJP                73                2              6.65%          10.70%
  PLC                28                0              0.55%           2.28%
  SAD(S)          15                 0              0.60%           4.62%

LIP                 35               0            0.28%               0.93%

SSM+             92               0            1.25%           (Farm protest parties)
  SSM               82                0             1.14%           1.62%
  SSP               10                 0            0.11%            1.29%

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand results

AAP which some polls showed will win over 10% of the vote and split the anti-BJP vote actually did not materialize.  BSP actually outperformed a bit.  In the end, BJP was able to keep its base intact and win re-election even without an AAP surge taking away part of the INC vote.

                  Contest       Won         Vote share
BJP                 70            47             44.72%

BJP rebel                          0               2.23%

INC                70             19            38.24%

INC rebel                          2               2.06%

UJP                  6               0              0.63%     (INC splinter)

BSP                54              2               4.87%

AAP                70              0               3.34%

UKD+             44              0               1.18%

ASP                13              0               0.64%    (Dalit)

[jaichind]

CSDS analysis of UP vote

SP+ consolidated Yadav and Muslim votes but BJP+ consolidated Upper Caste votes.  There was some churn in the non-Yadav OBC but BJP+ maintained their edge while both Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits saw some movement away from BSP toward both BJP+ and SP+.



BJP's Hindu consolidation was mostly in the areas with a high number of Muslims which explains better than expected BJP performance in Western UP.  It is also interesting that BSP also did better with Hindus in areas of a high Muslim population.  BSP is stronger in Western UP which could explain this.  It could also mean that there are anti-BJP Hindu voters that saw SP as the Muslim party in seats of high Mulsim concentration and voted BSP.



Modi's backing off on the farm reform laws seems to have diffused the farm issue in Western UP



BJP's strategy of targeting women voters based on law and order (cracking down on Yadav and Muslim mafias) and welfare schemes worked.  Shows UP women vote on practical issues and not INC's tokenism approach of having more women candidates.

[jaichind]

In Manipur NPF and JD(U) will back the BJP government while NPP will not.  I can see INC NPP forming a  de facto opposition alliance in Manipur.

[jaichind]

UP results

Very few rebels in this very polarized race.  BJP+ SP+ BSP and INC added up to over 96% of the vote which is unprecedented in UP just like Axis My India predicted and incorrectly mocked by me.

RLD vote share shows that the SP-RLD alliance failed to consolidate the RLD Jat base and the SP Muslim base and allowed the BJP to trigger a Hindu consolidation in Western UP.

INC and BSP lost their respective bases to BJP and SP in a polarized election.  One of the 2 INC seats that it won was only because SP withdrew from that seat to reciprocate INC withdrawing from 2 seats where key SP leaders were running (Akhilesh Yadav and Shipal Yadav).


                  Contest       Won         Vote share        Vote share in
                                                                        seats contested
BJP+             403          273             44.12%
  BJP                376         255             41.57%           44.42%
  AD(S)              17           12               1.63%           40.22%
  NISHAD           10             6               0.92%           36.81%

SP+              402          125             36.82%  (SP withdrew in 1 seat for a key INC leader)
  SP                343          110              31.88%          37.46%
  RLD                33             8                2.87%          34.04%
  SBSP              17             6                1.37%          33.18%
  AD(K)               4             0                0.25%          26.71%
  MD                   2             0                0.15%          34.33% (ran on SP ticket)
  PSL(L)              1             1                0.17%          63.27% (ran on SP ticket)
  JP(S)                1             0                0.07%          33.61% (ran on SP ticket)
  NCP                 1              0                0.05%          18.62%

BSP              403              1             12.97%

INC              399               2              2.35% (INC withdrew from 2 seats for key SP leaders)

JDL                16               2              0.21%

AIMIM            95               0              0.49% (Muslim)

VIP                53               0              0.14% (Bihar based Nishad party)

JAP               138              0              0.30% (Bihar RJD Yadav splinter)

AAP              349               0              0.38%

ASP              111               0              0.13% (Dalit)

JD(U)            27                0              0.11% (Bihar based Kurmi party)

[jaichind]

In the wife vs wife BJP primary for the Amethi, the winner is the husband.  BJP decides to go with Sanjay Singh as the BJP candidate over both his wives as a way to break the deadlock.  Reasonable compromise.

BTW, the last time Sanjay Singh ran for this assembly seat was in 1985 as the INC candidate.  To this date, his victory still holds the record for most lopsided contested election in Indian assembly election history

Amethi 1985 assembly election
INC  (Sanjay Singh)               98.3%
BJP                                        1.3%

The history of the Raja of Amethi family and INC/Gandhi family is an interesting one.  The old Raja of Amethi was pro-BJS in the 1960s mostly because  Indira Gandhi made a move to take away all promised pensions for the various ex-royals in the late 1960s.  In 1977 in order to try to make his backward Amethi a VIP constituency and get more government funding the old Raja of Amethi switched to INC and lobbied to get Indira Gandhi's son political heir Sanjay Gandhi to contest in Amethi in the 1977 LS elections.  Sanjay Gandhi picked Amethi to run in 1977 and lost in the 1977 epic Janata landslide.  But Sanjay Gandhi came back on won in 1980 before his untimely death in a plane accident.  But during this time the scion of the House of Amethi Raja Sanjay Singh cemented his relationship with the Gandhi family and INC.  He ran in the 1980 UP election in the Amethi assembly and won as INC candidate.

Indira Gandhi called in his non-political son Rajiv Gandhi to come into politics and run in the by-election for the Amethi LS seat.  Sanjay Gandhi's widow Maneka Gandhi objected to his as she saw herself as Sanjay Gandhi's political heir and not Rajiv Gandhi.  Rajiv Gandhi won that by-election.  In 1988 Sanjay Singh had a falling out with Rajiv Gandhi and joined the new JD.  Later in the 1990s he joined the BJP and won the Amethi LS seat in 1998 as the BJP candidate.  In 1999 he ran against Sonia Gandhi who was looking to reclaim her husband's old seat and lost badly.  In 2003 he rejoined the INC only to rejoin BJP in 2019 after the BJP LS landslide victory in UP.

BJP's Sanjay Singh actually lost the Amethi's seat to the 2012 and 2017 SP candidate's wife.  The 2012 SP winner was accused of rape and only the run from the police when he lost to BJP's Garima Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #1).  He has since been convicted of rape and is in jail.  SP nominated his wife who beat Sanjay Singh.

The history of the Amethi assembly election is

2002: Amita Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #2) won on BJP ticket
BJP (Amita Singh, Sanjay Singh wife #2)          42.2%
INC  (Ashish Shukla)                                       28.1%
SP (Gayatri Prasad)                                         16.4%
BSP                                                                 5.3%

In the meantime, Amita Singh and Sanjay Singh defect to INC.

2007: Amita Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #2) won on INC ticket  
INC (Amita Singh, Sanjay Singh wife #2)          40.6%
BSP (Ashish Shukla)                                        30.1%
SP                                                                  17.6%
BJP                                                                  5.4%

2012: Amita Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #2) lost as INC candidate to SP's Gayatri Prasad.
SP (Gayatri Prasad)                                          35.8%
INC (Amita Singh, Sanjay Singh wife #2)           30.5%
BSP (Ashish Shukla)                                         21.7%
BJP                                                                   5.3%

2017 Garima Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #1) won on the BJP ticket
BJP (Garima Singh, Sanjay Singh wife #1)          34.2%
SP (Gayatri Prasad, accused rapist on the run)    31.5%
BSP                                                                 16.1%
INC (Amita Singh, Sanjay Singh wife #2)           10.8%

In the meantime, Sanjay Singh and Amita Singh defect to BJP.  Both Amita Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #2) and BJP incumbent Garima Singh (Sanjay Singh wife #1) want to be nominated for 2022.  BJP eventually compromised by nominating Sanjay Singh who won this seat in 1985 with a margin that is the largest on record in the history of Indian contested assembly elections.  But he went on to lose to  SP's Maharaji Prajapati (wife of convicted rapist and former SP candidate Gayatri Prasad)

2022
SP (Maharaji Prajapati, wife of convicted rapist former SP MLA Gayatri Prasad) 46.8%
BJP (Sanjay Singh)                                                                                      37.2%
INC (Ashish Shukla)                                                                                      7.5%
BSP                                                                                                             5.4%


SP really believes in Gayatri Prasad and re-nominated him in 2017 even though he was accused of rape and on the run from the police during the election.  After he was caught and convinced SP nominated his wife and their faith in Gayatri Prasad really paid off when his wife won.

Note the impact of local kingpin Ashish Shukla who was with INC but defected to BSP when  Amita Singh defected to INC and was nominated in 2007.  He ran for BSP in 2007 and 2012 before defecting to BJP but was not nominated in 2017.  He then defected back to INC this election to run for INC.  It seems what was left of the INC base tactically voted SP to defeat BJP in this election.

[jaichind]

As soon as the election results were out the BJP high command sent a team to Gujarat to get the state BJP ready for the assembly elections that will take place in late 2022.  It seems their sense of urgency was not they thought INC could spring a surprise on them as they nearly did in 2017 but that the AAP has clear plans to expand into Gujarat.  What the BJP now fears is that if the AAP eats into the INC and partly BJP vote base in 2022 Gujarat assembly elections and win, say a dozen seats, they could displace INC in 2027 and potentially defeat BJP just like they did in Delhi 2013 and then 2015.  The BJP was clearly spooked by the AAP surge in Punjab which seems to be greater than what they expected.

[Frodo]

I know it's two years early, but given the election results so far, does it look like the coalition behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win another landslide in 2024, and hold on for yet another five years?

[omar04]

I know it's two years early, but given the election results so far, does it look like the coalition behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win another landslide in 2024, and hold on for yet another five years?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/what-march-2022-says-about-may-2024-101647085619573.html

My personal opinion:

They will probably lose some ground relative to 2018 which was the first time a government was returned with an increased majority in India. The victory in UP is a good sign for them though as the state has a 1/7th of the national legislature's seats (they would have even more if the seats weren't allocated based on the 1971 census). Also, the opposition is quite divided which further benefits Modi.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/1502743676908412930