India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
jaichind:
2022 India assembly elections
Feb/March: UP Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur and Goa
Nov/Dec: Gujarat HP and most likely J&K
UP: BJP won a massive landslide in 2017 and looks like has a real shot at a ruling party winning re-election in UP for the first time since 1985.
Punjab: INC won a landslide victory in 2017 as the anti-INC vote was split between AAP and SAD-BJP. This time around AAP looks over strong and is likely to defeat INC
Uttarakhand: BJP won in a landslide in 2017 on Modi wave plus INC divisions. BJP on its 3rd CM since 2017 is not a good look and INC has a good shot at winning
Manipur: INC just narrowly missed winning re-election and the BJP was able to build a post-election government by roping in small parties and getting a bunch of INC defectors. Given how much this state needs federal subsidies the BJP has a good shot at winning re-election even as the anti-incumbency energy will be on the side of INC.
Goa: INC just narrowly missed unseating BJP mostly due to AAP underperformance in 2017 and the BJP was able to build a post-election government by roping in small parties and a bunch of INC defectors. INC with its alliance with GFP should have a good shot of winning but AAP seems even stronger this time. Also, the AITC-MAG alliance will be a significant factor and could split off anti-BJP votes.
Gujarat: Modi's home state and BJP have won here every election since 1995. The problem for BJP is Modi is not on the ballot and its old Patel vote is drifting away. The BJP just installed a new Patel CM but that could drive away other OBC and Dalit voters that have drifted toward BJP recently. Either way, BJP is likely to win but the INC might keep it very close.
HP: BJP won in 2017 but since 1985 no government has won re-election. Going by the results of recent by-elections it seems the pattern will repeat itself and the BJP will be defeated.
J&K: Assuming seat delamination is done in time J&D will have its first vote since 2014. J&K was a special state and historically has had elections every 6 years versus 5. But its special status was taken away in 2019 and since then the state has been in limbo. Old rival JKN and PDP will join forces to sweep Muslim Kashmir while INC will take on BJP on mixed but Hindu majority Jammu with JKN and PDP doing well in some Muslim pockets of Jammu. BJP would like to win a majority on its own but that seems mathamatically very difficult.
jaichind:
The UP election will easily be the most critical of the 2022 assembly elections. A solid BJP victory will mean Modi is likely to win re-election in 2024 AND UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath can then make a play to take overtake Amit Shah as the #2 in BJP and Modi successor. A narrow BJP victory still bodes well for Modi in 2024 but will cut Yogi Adityanath down to size and Amit Shah's role as Modi's successor will stay intact. A BJP defeat would cast Yogi Adityanath back down to earth and would put questions marks on if BJP/Modi can win in 2024.
2019 was a massive pro-incumbent landslide and had parallels with pro-incumbent INC landslides in 1971 and 1984. But note that INC lost the next election outright in 1977 and 1989. In both cases, INC did seem unbeatable until a couple of years before the next elections (1975 and 1987 respectively). So if there are going to be chinks in BJP's armor it will be to show up in 2022 and it will have to be in UP.
Rahul Gandhi's goal will be for INC to get a respectable performance in UP (greater than 20 seats and greater than 8% vote share) but INC will be more focused on winning Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur Goa and HP as well as keeping it close in Gujarat. If the Priyanka Gandhi-led INC can get a respectable performance in UP and INC win places like Uttarakhand Goa HP and Punjab then Rahul Gandhi is back in the game for 2024.
Priyanka Gandhi is smart to attach herself to the brand of women empowerment by having 35% of INC candidates be women. INC will not win many seats but Priyanka Gandhi might have established a brand that might pay off for her and INC a couple of election cycles from now.
jaichind:
The various assembly elections will also have bearing on the situation in the RS. The NDA has been trying to win a majority in RS through hook or crook and has mostly failed. The NDA does have a majority once you factor in pro-NDA parties. As long as the BJP does not win a landslide victory in UP it is likely they will move further and further away from a majority for NDA.
Current RS
NDA 119
BJP 98
AIADMK 5
JD(U) 4
RPI(A) 1
AGP 1
PMK 1
TMC 1
NPF 1
NPP 1
MNF 1
SAD(S) 1
NDA-IND 1
NDA-NOM 3
Pro-NDA 16
BJD 9
YSRCP 6
SDF 1
UPA 54
INC 33
DMK 10
NCP 4
SHS 3
IUML 1
MDMK 1
JMM 1
AGM 1
Anti-NDA 48
AITC 13
SP 5
TRS 6
RJD 5
AAP 3
BSP 3
SAD 2
TDP 1
JD(S) 1
CPM 6
CPI 1
LJD 1
KEC(M) 1
Vacant 8 (4 in J&K)
If the various assembly elections over the next couple of years go the way I think the evolution of RS over the next few years can be projected by
NDA pro-NDA UPA anti-NDA Vacant
End of 2021 119 16 54 48 8
End of 2022 111 19 60 53 2
End of 2023 110 19 61 53 2
End of 2024 101 22 67 55
End of 2025 99 22 69 55
The trend is clearly moving away from a NDA majority in the RS. Although even if an anti-NDA government is elected in 2024 the NDA plus pro-NDA parties will still be strong enough to block such a government's agenda in the RS.
SnowLabrador:
The BJP is going to win. That's all one needs to know.
jaichind:
Quote from: SnowLabrador on January 01, 2022, 08:29:49 PM
The BJP is going to win. That's all one needs to know.
No so sure about that. BJP is very strong at the national level due to Modi but the state-level assembly BJP always underperforms Modi.
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