2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:35:40 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 14
Author Topic: 2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022  (Read 17036 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: July 17, 2022, 08:54:39 AM »

Pro-Green RW News poll on the open seat of the county magistrate of long-time KMT stronghold 苗栗縣(Miaoli County).  Here there is an intense battle between different KMT factions and there will be a strong KMT rebel after KMT high command made their choice for a rival KMT faction candidate.  The current KMT incumbent totally messed up the management of the local factions and as a result the official KMT candidate is not being accepted by the KMT base here.

KMT rebel          30.38
DPP                   18.78
NPP                   16.42
KMT                  12.38

In theory, the KMT split should be a golden opportunity to pick up this open seat but NPP running a strong candidate with strong local appeal is giving a free run for the KMT rebel to sweep in and win.




Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2022, 04:56:42 AM »

UDN poll in 雲林(Yunlin County)

KMT      39  (incumbent)
DPP       24

The KMT incumbent has a clear lead with TPP voters and independents. 

This county is heavy green but has been trending slowly blue the last couple of election cycles.   The DPP should have a clear generic edge here but the KMT incumbent who was elected in the 2018 KMT wave is the sister of the powerful pro-KMT Chang faction.  Given incumbency advantages, I read this poll as the KMT incumbent having a narrow lead over the DPP challenger.

雲林(Yunlin County) and 宜蘭(Yilan County) are the two KMT counties that the DPP has a chance of a flip.  This poll shows they have a shot in 雲林(Yunlin County) but are still underdogs.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: July 24, 2022, 01:29:10 PM »

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/07/25/2003782380

"Hsinchu stadium closed for safety risks to players"

Another blow for DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and former 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) on top of his plagiarism scandals.   After years and massive investment into a refurbishment of Hsinchu Baseball Stadium, it reopened with much fanfare (DPP Prez Tsai came to lead the ribbon cutting) but it had to close right away due to all sorts of problems.  In addition to several players being injured, it seems the women's bathroom locks were put on in reverse.  Some of the professional players complained "the stadium is worse that I have seen in Cuba"

Even pro-DPP Taipei Times had to admit
Quote
Former Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-chien (林智堅) on Saturday said on Facebook that the problems rest on his shoulders.

Lin, who resigned from the post to run as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taoyuan mayoral candidate, said that although he is no longer mayor, he would work with the city, the CPBL and the teams to see that improvements can be made at the stadium.

There is now talk in the pro-DPP political discussion boards that perhaps Lin needs to go and DPP put in someone else or face an electoral meltdown in both 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and 新竹市(Hsinchu City).
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: July 24, 2022, 07:50:23 PM »

UDN poll for 新北市(New Taipei City)

KMT         57 (incumbent)
DPP          21

KMT incumbent is KMT political superstar Hou so the fact he is way ahead is not a surprise.  Still, the DPP nominated former 臺中市(Taichung City) mayor Lin who I think would have significant name recognition.  Still given the KMT incumbent advantage at this stage of the campaign it seems this election is most likely around 59-41 or so.

 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: July 25, 2022, 05:59:51 AM »

TVBS poll for 新竹市(Hsinchu City)

KMT     27
TPP      26
DPP      23

DPP not doing that badly given the recent scandals of former DPP mayor 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien).  The main danger for KMT if these scandals continue to take up headlines is that there will be DPP->TPP tactical voting to stop KMT.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: July 25, 2022, 06:02:19 AM »

Ettoday poll for 高雄市(Kaohsiung City)

DPP         55.6 (incumbent)
KMT        26.6

DPP incumbent has a large lead with independents which gives him such a large lead.  Given the incumbency advantage at this stage of the race, I would have this race around 57-43 right now which is a slightly below-average result for KMT even if the KMT is taking on an incumbent.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: July 27, 2022, 05:40:04 AM »

More updates on DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and former mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism case. 

In one of the cases, a paper Lin submitted 2017 was found to be 90% duplicative of another paper presented in 2016 by one 余正煌(Yu Cheng-Huang).  Both papers contained identical typos as well.
 Both papers were about Lin's election victory in 2014.

The two papers


Note that one 陳明通(Chen Ming-tong) appears on both papers. Chen was Lin's professor and separately reviewed Yu's paper.  Chen is a pro-DPP academic that is now the head of NSB.

The DPP defense so far is to imply it was Yu that copied from Lin

Yu released a statement today saying he wrote his paper on his own and did not copy from anyone


The next line of defense for the DPP might be either to

a) call Yu a liar
OR
b) say that both Lin and Yu used similar research material so it is not a surprise the paper is similar. 

Of course b) is a very problematic argument given the paper is 90% duplicative and contains the same typos.  But if the DPP insists on going forward with Lin as their candidate they will have no choice but make this very difficult argument. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: July 27, 2022, 09:42:31 AM »

Another hilarious fact about the two duplicate Master's thesis of DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and former mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) scandal.

It seems both Lin's thesis paper and Yu's thesis paper made the same mistake with Lin's biographical information.  Bear in mind both papers are about Lin's 2014 election campaign.  In both papers, Lin is labeled to be a "Master's degree candidate" which is incorrect since Lin got a separate Master's degree back in 2010.  So when Lin copied Yu's paper he did not even bother proofreading it to find false information about himself.  Lin of all people should know that he himself got a Master's degree in 2010 and as of 2016-2017 he is NOT a "Master's degree candidate" but a Master's degree holder.

Of course, the other Lin plagiarism scandal revolves around his 2010 Master's degree thesis which not seems to be a duplicate of a 2007 government report.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: July 28, 2022, 03:15:27 AM »

UDN 新竹市(Hsinchu City) poll which is similar to the TVBS poll

KMT      26
TPP       25
DPP      21

Note a female gender gap in favor of the male KMT candidate over the two women TPP and DPP candidates.  KMT is strong with older voters and TPP strong with youth votes.  TPP seems to be drawing pro-blue youth voters away from the KMT candidate which is a general trend where TPP is becoming the urban youth pan-Blue party.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: July 31, 2022, 06:00:09 PM »

UDN poll for 臺北市(Taipei City) has a 3 way tie now that DPP's Chen formally enters the race

KMT   28
DPP    26
PFP    26 (backed by TPP)

KMT and DPP are equally strong with men and women, PFP's Huang as the only woman in the race is stronger with men.  KMT strong with older votes while TPP backed PFP stronger with younger voters.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: August 06, 2022, 06:46:31 AM »

UDN poll for 高雄市(Kaohsiung City)

DPP       53 (incumbent)
KMT      18

Given the incumbency advantages at this stage of the campaign, this poll indicates something like a 58-42 victory for DPP.  Below average result for KMT.  Even given incumbency advantages, the KMT would most likely hope to get to something like 55-45.

Logged
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: August 06, 2022, 09:02:50 AM »

UDN poll for 高雄市(Kaohsiung City)

DPP       53 (incumbent)
KMT      18

Given the incumbency advantages at this stage of the campaign, this poll indicates something like a 58-42 victory for DPP.  Below average result for KMT.  Even given incumbency advantages, the KMT would most likely hope to get to something like 55-45.



Related to the Pelosi visit and increasing tensions with the PRC? I have to imagine that those would in general favor the DPP (as in 2020).
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: August 09, 2022, 10:14:06 AM »

Update on DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and former mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism scandal.  It seems Taiwan University which is involved in the second of his plagiarism scandal came out with their report on this issue. They found that Lin's thesis had massive duplication with another thesis a year earlier and conclude that he had plagiarized his thesis.  As a result, Taiwan University has revoked Lin's Master's degree.  This is turning into a fiasco for DPP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: August 11, 2022, 08:38:45 AM »

TISR poll for 雲林(Yunlin County)

KMT     40.5 (incumbent)
DPP     24.6

Very similar to the UDN poll a couple of weeks ago.  This is a deep green county but the KMT incumbent seems to hold a small edge.  Once you factor in incumbency factors this poll shows the KMT incumbent with a narrow lead over the DPP

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2022, 08:46:37 AM »

Maverick  former DPP  PM 游錫堃 (You Si-kun) controlled TPOF poll has 48% saying that DPP candidate 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) for 桃園市(Taoyuan City)  should drop out due to plagiarism scandal with 28% saying he should continue running.  it seems the historically pro-DPP youth tend to be more in favor of 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) dropping out.




For 桃園市(Taoyuan City) itself, it seems to be 62 to 19.9 that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  should drop out.



The signal for DPP high command seems to be that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  will run all the way until the end and DPP high command believes that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  is innocent of palgerism
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: August 11, 2022, 02:22:09 PM »

DPP Prez Tsai going all in to back DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City)  林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) seems related to her primary goal of blocking DPP VP Lai for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination.  Tsai's strategy of blocking Lai seems to involve building up current DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) 鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-tsan) who is very close to Tsai. If Tsai abandons  林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) now then most likely 桃園市(Taoyuan City) lost but she ensures that the DPP does not get hit in other races.  Tsai instead picked a path of backing 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) all the way which has a somewhat higher chance of winning but has a grave risk of dragging down the DPP across the board, especially in the North.  Right now  鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-tsan)  is going all out to work to get 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  elected in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and if the DPP wins here in Nov 2022 then Tsai would have the credibility to install  鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-tsan) as PM which would put in a solid position to battle VP Lai for the 2024 nomination.  Tsai is betting it all to try to get this ideal outcome even if this risks an all out landslide defeat for the DPP in the North.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2022, 05:11:04 AM »

DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City)  林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) drops out and will be replaced by DPP MP 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng).  It seems DPP internal polling showed 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) dropping like a stone.  Also, there are rumors that Chung Hua University (whose administrators and faculty are known to be fairly pro-DPP) which is investigating the other 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism scandal case was also going to come out saying that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) is guilty of plagiarism in the degree they awarded him over a decade ago. 

鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) is going to have less name recognition and star power than 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) but is considered a moderate in the DPP and I think has a good chance of keeping this race close even though after this scandal the KMT is favorited here now.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: August 17, 2022, 05:34:43 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2022, 05:39:57 AM by jaichind »

TVBS poll for 桃園市(Taoyuan City)  after DPP sapped out scandal-plagued 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) for 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) has the KMT ahead by 11

KMT       39
DPP        28
TPP          8

DPP swapped out 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) with scandals but star power over a more conventional 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) who is a MP in 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  One weakness of the KMT is that the KMT candidate 張善政(Chang San-cheng) is not from 桃園市(Taoyuan City) but neither is 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) who was a DPP MP from Taipei in the mid-2000s before losing re-election and then switching over to 桃園市(Taoyuan City) to run in 2016.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: August 17, 2022, 05:39:30 AM »

Pro-Green RWNews for 宜蘭縣(Yilan County)

KMT   47.4 (incumbant)
DPP    33.7
TPP      5.1



The KMT incumbent has corruption accusations against her but seems to have a solid lead.  Given the incumbency advantage, I would read this poll as a narrow KMT lead.  Still for the KMT to have an edge in historically anti-KMT 宜蘭縣(Yilan County) is significant.  The KMT has not won re-election here since the 1970s so for the KMT incumbent to be favored to win re-election is quite an accomplishment.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: August 17, 2022, 05:46:08 AM »

Dissident DPP TPOF poll on DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval

DPP Prez Tsai's approval slumped in May and June during the COVID-19 surge but came back in July as the COVID-19 surge abated.  With the Nancy Pelosi visit and endless PRC military exercises, one would have expected a rally around the flag and for Tsai's approval rating to rise in August.  Instead, it fell to close to the lowest level since her second term.  It seems the 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  plagiarism fiasco wiped out any gains from the Pelosi visit/PRC response.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: August 17, 2022, 05:54:04 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2022, 06:22:30 AM by jaichind »

At this stage, the battle in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) is to do or die for DPP Prez Tsai.  Her main goal is not if DPP wins in 2024 which I am sure she prefers they win but the balance of power in the DPP after she steps down.  The 2008 landslide defeat followed by DPP Prez Chen being locked up for corruption was so devastating that the DPP turned to a non-CW DPP Tsai to lead them.  Note that Tsai was considered a moderate KMT/light blue before 2000 and up until the early 2000s has stated many times "I am Chinese."  Going with Tsai as their leader was very unconventional and shows the desperation and flexibility of the DPP to go with Tsai as a leader.  Tsai also has the advantage that DPP Prez Chen being locked up after 2008 mean she had no real rival or party elder breathing down her neck.  

Post-2024 Tsai wants an outsized influence over the DPP.  Ideally, it is to make sure that her rival Lai is not the leader of the DPP and not the DPP candidate in 2024.  Ensuring that DPP wins 桃園市(Taoyuan City) is critical for Tsai to cement her influence over the party into 2024 and beyond.  DPP losing 桃園市(Taoyuan City) would make it much more likely for DPP VP Lai (and challenger to Tsai in the 2020 DPP Prez "primary") to be the 2024 DPP nominee or a Lai emerge as the leader of the DPP after 2024 if Lai is not the DPP nominee but DPP loses in 2024.  Lai being the DPP leader post-2024 would mean he wants to cut Tsai down to size to make sure he has a similar environment Tsai did in 2008 without a party elder breathing down her neck.  To avoid being marginalized post-2024 is Tsai's real goal in the 桃園市(Taoyuan City) mayor race.   Being that is the case expect Tsai now to go all out to win.   I suspect the 桃園市(Taoyuan City) race will end up being very close and the result could decide the balance of power within the DPP in the decade to come.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: August 24, 2022, 05:41:32 AM »

中華大學(Chung Hua University) whose administration is well known to be pro-DPP came out with its report on the 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism chargees.  Their conclusion is that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)'s paper in 2010 was plagiarized and his master's degree there is revoked.



In theory, 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) has already dropped out of the race for mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) so this does not matter. The reason it matters is that DPP Prez Tsai continues to insist that she believes that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) is innocent which is also the position his DPP replacement candidate 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng).  This DPP position is going to be increasingly difficult given two separate investigations on two separate charges of plagiarism both came out to indict 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien).
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2022, 05:47:47 AM »

In 宜蘭縣(Yilan County) the current KMT county magistrate 林姿妙(Lin Zi-Miao) has been indicted for corruption.  The DPP has called for her to drop out of the race but it seems the KMT, as well as the 宜蘭縣(Yilan County) pan-Blue base, is sticking by her saying that these corruption accusations are trumped up by the DPP.  In theory, unless she is convinced there is nothing stopping 林姿妙(Lin Zi-Miao) from running and winning re-election.  So far she is still ahead in the polls.  We will see if this lead holds up.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: August 27, 2022, 08:39:45 AM »

In mission-critical for DPP Prez Tsai 桃園市(Taoyuan City), it seems former DPP MP 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) and DPP founding member have entered the race for mayor making it a 4-way race of KMT vs DPP vs TPP vs DPP rebel.  Cheng's main plank is that DPP candidate DPP MP 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) is 1) not from 桃園市(Taoyuan City) just like the KMT candidate and 2) continues to vouch for the innocence 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) which is clearly not true.

鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) was actually the DPP candidate for Taoyuan country magistrate back in 2005 but lost to KMT incumbent Chu who is now the KMT chairman.

I think Cheng is likely to pick up KMT and TPP votes as well as DPP voters but will make sure there is not a DPP consolidation of its vote making it very hard for DPP's 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng)  to win.  There are rumors that Cheng is really DPP Vice Prez Lai's proxy candidate to ensure the DPP loses in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) paving the way for him to take over the party in 2024 and beyond pushing aside Tsai.  If this is true Lai better makes sure the DPP mass base does not think this is true because that will sink his chances in the DPP primary in 2024.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: August 27, 2022, 03:07:11 PM »

The main lesson of the 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) fiasco is that in politics you cannot get too greedy.  In 桃園市(Taoyuan City) the original plan was to pick between 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) or 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) but DPP Prez Tsai went with 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) given his star power.  This already offended various local 桃園市(Taoyuan City)  DPP grassroots factions.  Then 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) convinced DPP Prez Tsai to install his sidekick 沈慧虹 (Sheng Hui-Hong) as the DPP candidate for 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor which was the position 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) held. 沈慧虹 (Sheng Hui-Hong) has no deep roots with the DPP and only joined the DPP in June just to run.  It seems some local DPP factions in 新竹市(Hsinchu City)  who felt it was their turn to run for mayor instead of 沈慧虹 (Sheng Hui-Hong)  got angry and decided to leak to the pan-Blue camp details of 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)'s plagiarism.  林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) wanted to control two cities (桃園市(Taoyuan City) and 新竹市(Hsinchu City)) and in the end, will end up with nothing as his scandal has driven DPP's 沈慧虹 (Sheng Hui-Hong)  into third place with the race slowing turning into a KMT vs TPP battle.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 14  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.