2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

Some polling firms involved in polling for KMT and DPP "primaries" indicated that many respondents would lie about their age and gender.    Many men would pretend to be women, and many older respondents would pretend to be in their 20s.  It seems these respondents how that the youth and women have lower response rates and as a result, their responses would be weighted higher.  So these hyper partisans would pretend to be a different demographic group so their response would be weighted higher.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll has ROC Prez Tsai's approval/disapproval at 36/48 which is the worst for her since the start of the 2020 re-election campaign in mid-2019.  This is clearly because of the COVID-19 surge.


The bad news for the KMT is that on current trends the COVID-19 should be over by Sept which is just enough time for the DPP to get rid of COVID-19 as an election topic by election day.

[jaichind]

DPP nominates 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) as its candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  was term limited so for a while there was a DPP scheme to merge 新竹市(Hsinchu City)  and 新竹縣(Hsinchu County) in 2021 so 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  can run again for the combined Greater Hsinchu.  After ridiculing from the KMT and the media for this idea the DPP dropped it.  So now 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) will run instead in 園市(Taoyuan City). 

In theory 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) not being from 桃園市(Taoyuan City) is a problem but the KMT candidate 張善政(Simon Chang) not being from 桃園市(Taoyuan City) either sort of cancels out both problems for both candidates.  The DPP might be counting on 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) being able to rope in the Hakka vote in Southern 桃園市(Taoyuan City) but frankly, he is not Hakka nor does he speak the Hakka dialect well.  One of the reasons why the DPP did not go ahead with the Greater Hsinchu plan is their polling must have shown that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  did not poll well in heavy Hakka 新竹縣(Hsinchu County).  It comes down to DPP Prez Tsai's feeling that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) is an emerging DPP superstar (with a similar Northern urban appeal much like Tsai) and wanted to try to keep him in alive in active politics.

Of course, this means that the DPP Minister of the Ministry of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) cannot run in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and will have to vie with ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor and current DPP Minister of Transportation and Communications 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) for the DPP nomination in 臺北市(Taipei City).     With the COVID-19 surge still going on in ROC 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) political future is still frozen the current DPP stalemate over 臺北市(Taipei City) will continue as well.

[jaichind]

ETtoday poll for 臺北市(Taipei City)

If DPP goes with 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) it is
KMT                   35.5
TPP backed PFP   28.8
DPP                    25.3

If DPP goes with 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung)
KMT                   36.9
TPP backed PFP   27.7
DPP                   23.2

KMT is strong in the 50s and 60+ age group while TPP is strong in the 20s and 30s age group.

I suspect once the DPP candidate is locked in DPP support will go up most likely at the expense of the TPP-backed PFP candidate.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  Given DPP has gone with 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)  it is

KMT     34
DPP     29
TPP       8

[jaichind]

Shih Hsin University poll for 基隆市 (Keelung City)

KMT    27.2
DPP    25.2
NPP      4.0

[jaichind]

陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) who was an independent that was DPP Prez Tsai VP during her first term of 2016-2020 joins DPP.  陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) was a pro-DPP academic whose father actually was the leader of the pro-KMT White faction and the KMT county magistrate of 高雄縣(Kaoshiung County) in the 1950s that ran in 2016 with Tsai only because Tsai wanted to appeal to political independents.   

It is weird that while in retirement Chen decides to join DPP.  Most likely Tsai wants him to run in the 2024 DPP primary.  Tsai above all else wants to block DPP VP Lai who ran against her in the 2020 DPP primary from winning the 2024 DPP nomination.  In theory, Tsai's man is the current 桃園市(Taoyuan City) mayor 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).    One logical theory is that Tsai is fearful that the KMT will win the election for mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) later this year and the blame will fall on 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).  If so then Tsai would need a backup plan to block Lai and it seems that will be former VP 陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen). 

It this is what Tsai is up to then it is against the interest of DPP.  It is clear that Lai would be the strongest DPP candidate in 2024.  If Lai runs for DPP I would rate 2024 lean DPP.  If Lai does not run for DPP in 2024 I would rate 2024 lean KMT.

[jaichind]

The election for the open seat of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor will be interesting.  This city has been trending Green but KMT still has significant strength.  新竹市(Hsinchu City) is relativity heavy Hakka, getting more urbanized and more heavy youth.  All three demographic areas that Tsai has been strong with and has been moving to DPP.  But the urban and youth lean also means TPP and NPP are going to be strong here as well.   In 2020 the KMT won the legislative race here in a 3-way race between KMT DPP and TPP.

This year TPP will run a PR MP which has a clean image here.  NPP is likely to run a candidate turning the race into a 4-way race.  It will not surprise me if all 4 candidates (KMT DPP TPP NPP) all end up in the 12%-38% vote share range.  KMT is strong with the older voters and if DPP TPP and NPP split the youth vote the KMT should be able to win.  This race will become more clear once all the candidates are know and we know if NPP is going to run a candidate.

[jaichind]

The latest TVBS poll for 臺北市(Taipei City) not looking good for DPP

If DPP goes with 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) then it is

KMT                    39
TPP backed PFP    24
DPP                     18



If DPP goes with 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) it is even worse for DPP

KMT                     37
TPP backed PFP    28
DPP                     16



The DPP has to hope for the COVID-19 surge which is ebbing somewhat to be over by July and then quickly make a call between Chen and Lin to get back into this race or else it risks being stranded in third place here just like 2018. 

The good news for DPP is that the pan-Blue base has shifted some of its support away from KMT's Chiang over to the TPP backed PFP Huang.

[jaichind]

Pan-Green (has an anti-Tsai and mostly pro-Lai lean) Formosa Poll had leader approval by voter type rating from G1 (most pro-Blue) to G9 (most pro-Green).  This poll oversamples Pan-Green voters but their breakdown has useful information.

Tsai's approval pattern (light green) is what you would expect which is poor with G1 and very strong with G9.  KMT New Taipei city mayor 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi) who is running for re-election (light blue) has strong appeal across the ideological spectrum and only falls a bit at G9. Taipei city mayor Ko who is likely to run in 2024 as the TPP candidate is now a de facto pan-Blue politician (blue-green) with good support with Pan-Blue ranges but poor support with Pan-Green ranges.  This is a big shift for Ko since 2014 when Ko was viewed as a deep Green politician.  Both Lai and former VP Chen (who just joined DPP) (Deep green and medium green) are strong with Pan-Greens and have reasonable appeal with Pan-Blues.  KMT chairperson Chu (deep blue) has poor ratings with Pan-Greens and mediocre support with Pan-Blues.  Unless KMT hits it out of the park in the 2022 local elections we can almost rule Chu out as the 2024 KMT candidate.


The conclusion is that the 2024 election should be in theory a Lai (DPP) vs Hou(KMT) election.  There are structural factors that get in the way of this.  Tsai is out to stop Lai and the KMT has institutional factors that tend to get in Hou's way given where he is in the internal KMT pecking order.

[jaichind]

There is a big scandal hitting 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien), DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and current DPP mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City).  



It seems that the paper he submitted for his master's degree years ago has a 90% duplication with another paper.  Even though it was some KMT Taipei City MLA that broke this story the rumor is that the leak came from the DPP camp.  It seems what took place was that 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) recommended his sidekick 沈慧虹 (Sheng Hui-Hong) as the DPP candidate for 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor but she is lower down on the DPP pecking order in 新竹市(Hsinchu City).  She only joined DPP in June so she can run.  



As a result disgruntled elements in the 新竹市(Hsinchu City) DPP who had intimate knowledge of 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism from years ago decided to leak this news to the KMT (and it seems NP as well) for them to break it to the media.

[jaichind]

There is talk that the KMT mayor of 新北市(New Taipei City) 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi) might not seek re-election but go directly for the 2024 KMT Prez nomination and avoid the accusation of abandoning the citizens of 新北市(New Taipei City) a year after he has been re-elected.   This will mostly involve all sorts of maneuvers within the KMT including who will run for mayor of 新北市(New Taipei City) if indeed 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi)  does run. 

The problem for 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi)  is that this becomes a chicken and egg.  Given where he is in the KMT internal pecking order he does not have much of a shot at the 2024 KMT nomination.  But if the KMT does badly in the 2022 local elections the KMT elite might turn to 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi).  As long as the KMT does reasonably well in 2022 the best 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi)  can hope for is the VP spot and then run in 2028 if the KMT loses 2024 (which is a 50/50 shot.)  But 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi)  has to make a call BEFORE knowing how 2022 will turn out.  Most likely he will stay in place, run for re-election and win by a large margin and see how things develop in 2024.  A bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush.

[jaichind]

The Master's dissertation of 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien), DPP candidate for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and current DPP mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) which is now he is accused to plagiarism.  It seems the front page of this dissertation has a clear misspelling where "evaluating" is spelled as "evaluatiing"

The report on the right is the report which 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) allegedly plagiarized from.  It seems this earlier report has a 87% word overlap with 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)'s dissertation

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for 臺中市(Taichung City) mayor

KMT     56 (incumbant)
DPP      24
TPP        4

Given this stage of the campaign, the incumbent is always overestimated.  I estimate on this poll the KMT will end up with around 55-56 with the DPP and TPP splitting the rest with TPP most likely being below 5

[jaichind]

Some of the details of the 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) plagiarism scandal are pretty funny.  It seems he is accused of two counts of plagiarism.  First, he worked on a master's dissertation in 2008 and it turns out it is a copy of some obscure 2005 government report.

The second one is the funny one.  It seems after 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) won the 2014 election for the mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) in a 3-way race (KMT vs DPP vs DPP rebel [which had a lot of appeal to pan-blue voters]) he decided to become a political science graduate student in Taiwan University while he was mayor [some ROC politicians like to do this since we Chinese are obsessed with academic credentials].   It seems his master's dissertation was about his own 2014 election "Social and political foundations of a 3-way race - 2014 race for Hsinchu City" which was published in  2017 Jan.   I cannot believe anyone can be so lazy and narcissistic that he can write a master's dissertation on his own election victory.    And it turned out he was so lazy he cannot just write a paper about his own election (which he is a unique expert in).  Instead, his paper is a near clone of another Taiwan University political student's master's dissertation "2014 Hsinchu City election: The political and social basis of Lin Chih-Chien's victory" which was published in 2016 July.

This is just amazing.  Imagine being so lazy that someone can choose to write a master's dissertation on his own election and then beyond that, he cannot bother to even sit down to write the paper but instead just copy someone else's paper about how his own election.  I am a pretty lazy person so I can empathize with Lin.  I would just hire someone to write the paper for me (like an academic ghostwriter or something) and let that be the end of it.   Doing what he did was risky and now it is blowing up.

[jaichind]

There are clear rumors out of the DPP camp that 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) will be selected soon for the DPP nomination for 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor and that the DPP high command is trying to get ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) to run for 新北市(New Taipei City) instead.  Being that the race for 新北市(New Taipei City) is pretty much hopeless for the DPP it seems 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) is not keen.   It seems that 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung)  is not happy with this development but he will have to eat it since it is DPP tradition that once the nominee is determined the entire party consolidates around the DPP candidate and DPP rebels do not have a long political life after their rebellion.  There is also talk of perhaps getting former VP 陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) who just joined DPP to run for 新北市(New Taipei City) but it is clear his plans are to run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination if he gets the nod from DPP Prez Tsai.

[jaichind]

UDN poll on 宜蘭縣(Yilan County)

KMT        37 (incumbant)
DPP         28
TPP           2

These are not strong numbers for the KMT incumbent who is under a cloud of corruption accusations that she claims are trumped up by the DPP.    Note that the KMT incumbent wins 71% of TPP voters even though there is a TPP candidate in the field.  Sort of shows that at least in 宜蘭縣(Yilan County)  the TPP vote are really ex-KMT voters that still lean Blue.

[jaichind]

There are clear rumors out of the DPP camp that 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) will be selected soon for the DPP nomination for 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor and that the DPP high command is trying to get ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) to run for 新北市(New Taipei City) instead.  Being that the race for 新北市(New Taipei City) is pretty much hopeless for the DPP it seems 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) is not keen.   It seems that 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung)  is not happy with this development but he will have to eat it since it is DPP tradition that once the nominee is determined the entire party consolidates around the DPP candidate and DPP rebels do not have a long political life after their rebellion.  There is also talk of perhaps getting former VP 陳建仁(Chen Chien-jen) who just joined DPP to run for 新北市(New Taipei City) but it is clear his plans are to run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination if he gets the nod from DPP Prez Tsai.

It seems after having dinner with ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung), Prez Tsai convinces him to run in 新北市(New Taipei City) instead of paving the way for the DPP to nominate Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) to run for  臺北市(Taipei City) mayor

There are going to be some issues for the DPP with this combination.  Even though there is an ebb in the COVID-19 numbers the number of deaths per day is still fairly significant so having Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-Chung) resign now to run in 臺北市(Taipei City) is not a great look.  Also, ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) made a big deal about running in 臺北市(Taipei City) and ruling out running in 新北市(New Taipei City) but now decided to run in 新北市(New Taipei City) makes the voters in 新北市(New Taipei City) feel like second class citizens.  Still, this combination is most likely the best the DPP can come up with right now, and even if the circumstances are not great it is better than most other alternatives.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll for 新竹市(Hsinchu City)

KMT   24.6 (+3.5)
DPP    24.2 (+8.6)
TPP    18.3 (+1.1)
NPP     5.8 (-4.8 )

DPP candidate was formally nominated which gave her a boost at the expense of NPP.  This will be a close 3 or even 4-way race.

[jaichind]

UDN poll for 臺中市(Taichung City).  KMT incumbent way ahead 51-22.  In a popular incumbent re-election race most undecided will go to the challenger.  I read this poll as a final result of 55-45.   Also this poll does not include the TPP candidate.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for 臺南市(Tainan City)

DPP    47 (incumbent)
KMT    30
Ind.      7 (lean Blue)

This poll does not include a pan-Green rebel that will run.  Given the incumbent advantage, I mostly read this poll as DPP beating KMT something like 51-40 in the end which is an incredible result for the KMT.  The KMT is running a fairly well know heavyweight candidate so it will not surprise me if the KMT candidate can cross 40% in a crowded field.

[jaichind]

ROC DPP VP Lai was invited to go to Japan to de facto represent ROC at Abe's funeral.  It seems the LDP hawks which were led by Abe were behind this move.  It was always said that the LDP hawk wing (mostly Abe and gang) always preferred Lai over Tsai in the Tsai vs Lai battle of 2019.  It is always clear that Tsai will try to work to block Lai from getting the DPP nomination.  The fact that the Abe faction pressured the Kishida government to invite Lai to visit Japan for Abe's funeral makes it clear that in 2024 Lai is their man.  It is also understood that the USA prefers Tsai over Lai so the DPP candidate that Tsai backs to take on Lai in the 2024 DPP nomination will most likely turn into a proxy battle between USA and Japan over the DPP candidate.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll on 新北市(New Taipei City).  KMT incumbent leads DPP's ex-臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) 56.1 to 30.8.  Lin does have some name recognition of Lin is helping with his support.   Again with the incumbency advantage in polling at this stage, I read this poll as pointing to a result of something like 57-43



As expected the incumbent has a women's gender gap.  The KMT incumbent is the strongest with the 40-49 age group.

[jaichind]

Some more polls

With DPP formally nominating Chen for 臺北市(Taipei City) he comes back to second place beating out TPP-backed Huang.

KMT     35.2
DPP      29.9
PFP       25.9 (TPP backed)


The breakdown shows KMT stronger with women and DPP stronger with men which is the norm in ROC.  KMT is strong with older votes but Huang is very strong with the youth.  It seems TPP-backed Huang is eating into the pan-Blue youth vote



UDN poll for the open seat of 基隆市(Keelung City) has it very close at

KMT          32
DPP          29
NPP           2
TPP            1
KMT rebel   1



UDN poll for 桃園市(Taoyuan City) after DPP Lin's plagiarism scandal broke has it at with change from June before the scandal broke.

KMT       31.2  (+4.2)
DPP        24.8 (-4.2)
TPP          8.1 (+3.1)

[jaichind]

Era News for 新竹市(Hsinchu City) since the NPP candidate dropped out

KMT       25.2
DPP        21.2
TPP        17.0