2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022
jaichind:
Republic of China "9 in 1" 2012 elections.
The 9 layers being elected are
Special municipality Mayors
Special municipality Assembly
Special municipality Urban Zone heads
Special municipality Zone assembly
Aborigine Zone heads
County Magistrates
County Assembly
County Township/Village heads
County Township/Village assembly
jaichind:
The most critical will be the various mayor and county magistrate elections
Lean incumbent
Fujian Province
連江縣(Lienchiang County) (Blue+38) KMT
金門縣(Kinmen County) (Blue+37) KMT
Taiwan Province
花蓮縣(Hualien County) (Blue+20) KMT
臺東縣(Taitung County) (Blue+18) KMT
新竹縣(Hsinchu County) (Blue+12) KMT
苗栗縣(Miaoli County) (Blue+11) Open
基隆市(Keelung City) (Blue+7) Open
南投縣(Nantou County) (Blue+5) KMT
澎湖縣(Penghu County) (Blue+4) KMT
新竹市(Hsinchu City) (Blue+3) Open
彰化縣(Changhua County) (Even) KMT
嘉義市(Chiayi City) (Green+4) KMT
雲林縣(Yunlin County) (Green+6) KMT
宜蘭縣(Yilan County) (Green+6) KMT
屏東縣(Pingtung County) (Green+6) DPP
嘉義縣(Chiayi County) (Green+8) DPP
Special Municipalities
臺北市(Taipei City) (Blue+4) Open
桃園市(Taoyuan City) (Blue+4) Open
新北市(New Taipei City) (Blue+1) KMT
臺中市(Taichung City) (Blue+1) KMT
高雄市(Kaohsiung City) (Green+6) DPP
臺南市(Tainan City) (Green+11) DPP
Good News for KMT: All the Open seats are in lean Blue areas
Good News for DPP: Most competitive open seats are trending Green
Good News for KMT: The most recent referendum shows the open seat trending Green might be reversing
KMT holds a lot of lean Green areas due to the 2018 KMT landslide victory. That actually included 高雄市(Kaohsiung City) until the KMT winner Han made the mistake of trying to run for ROC Prez in 2020 which was viewed as a slap on the people of 高雄市(Kaohsiung City). After he lost in 2020 he was recalled and the DPP candidate he beat in 2018 was elected in the by-election.
The KMT look poised to sweep all the open seats and have a solid shot at holding the lean Green cities/counties since they are popular incumbents there. The best DPP shot at a flip is 雲林縣(Yunlin County) where there are rumors that the DPP might run a MP who former popular county magsirate.
There also might be a chance that 新竹縣(Hsinchu County) and 新竹市(Hsinchu City) might merge and become a Special Municipalities but most likely the KMT will do that as well since the popular term-limited DPP incumbent 新竹市(Hsinchu City) has already indicated that he will not run.
jaichind:
The most-watched race will be for the battle for the open seat for mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City). The reason is many ROC Prez has served as mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City) in the past. That includes Lee, Chen, and Ma.
Current TPP mayor 柯文哲 (Ko) will be looking to run in the 2024 Prez election and is term-limited anywhere. Ko was elected in 2014 as a pro-DPP candidate but broke with DPP in 2018 and narrowly won over the KMT despite the DPP running to split his pan-Green vote. Ko has since drifted toward the Blue part of the political spectrum and his TPP party is really 2/3 Blue 1/3 Green.
The clear frontrunner is KMT 蔣萬安(Wayne Chiang) who is the great-grandson of ROC Prez Chiang Kai-Shek. Full disclosure: One of my cousins actually went to elementary school with Chiang. At that time she said that he was a real brat. Ko will be backing KMT splinter PFP 黃珊珊(Vivian Huang) who is serving as lieutenant mayor under Ko who is his clear political successor in 臺北市(Taipei City). Being that she is still in the PFP and has not joined TPP has led to conflict within TPP over Ko having her run as the Ko candidate. It is not clear who the DPP will run. For them to have a chance they will have to run Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen). He gained prominence during the early day of COVID-19 but his star has waned since and it is unlikely he will be able to beat Chiang. Given that he might not run but if he does not, all other DPP candidates will be blown out by Chiang so he might have to run just to save the DPP face.
jaichind:
Other than the mayors and county magistrates the other key race will be control of the various city and county assemblies. The pan-Blue forces control all city and county assembly except for 嘉義市(Chiayi City) when the leadership is lean-Green with outside support from some KMT MLAs and 臺南市(Tainan City) where a DPP rebel faction shares power with Pan-Blue forces.
There is a chance the pan-Greens might flip 高雄市(Kaohsiung City) assembly, where in 2018 the pan-Blue forces won control on the KMT Han wave. This time around without the Han wave and the DPP incumbent mayor Chen expected to win re-election with ease his coattails might propel the Pan-Greens to recapturing control of the city assembly. The Pan-Greens are most likely going to recapture control of 臺南市(Tainan City) assembly from the DPP rebel faction. The Pan-Blues on the flip side could win control of 嘉義市(Chiayi City) assembly if they can manage the KMT civil war between the pro-KMT Hsiao and non-Hsaio KMT factions.
Other than that most likely in other city and county assemblies there might a seat won or lost here or there but it should be status quo.
jaichind:
This set of local elections will also play a big role in who will lead the DPP in 2024 as Tsai is term-limited from running in 2024.
Tsai clearly favors outgoing 桃園市(Taoyuan City) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan). Cheng rose to stardom in his shock in 2014 upset victory for the mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) over KMT incumbent John Wu. Cheng's main rival is ROC DPP Vice Prez 賴淸德(William Lai) and clearly is the candidate Tsai does NOT want to lead the DPP. Lai challenged Tsai in 2019 for the DPP nomination and Tsai only managed to beat him by controlling the primary rules. If the KMT recaptures the 桃園市(Taoyuan City) mayor position that will weaken Cheng's hand vis-a-vis Lai. In that case, Tsai might have to play her trump card of backing the current ROC DPP PM 蘇貞昌(Su Tseng-chang) as the DPP candidate in 2024. Su is an old enemy of Tsai. In 2005-2006 Tsai served as DPM under Su when he was PM and these two did not get along well. Su challenged Tsai for the DPP nomination in 2012 and narrowly lost to Tsai. But to block Lai Tsai got Su to become her PM in 2019 to consolidate the DPP base behind her against Lai.
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