Underrated Growth of Central Business Districts of Large Cities?
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Author Topic: Underrated Growth of Central Business Districts of Large Cities?  (Read 2967 times)
Torie
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« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2022, 12:01:20 PM »
« edited: January 18, 2022, 12:04:31 PM by Torie »

Hoboken, NJ is in a state of continual war as big time developers try to break out of the bulk constraints to build residential buildings much taller than the 4 to 5 story structures currently allowed. That is why the one square mile city went from 50,000 to 60,000 in the last 10 years.

Meanwhile, Jersey City has no interest in giving any ground to the anti-development types in the so-called "war", transcending the absurdity altogether and not conceding any ground to the NIMBYs. It's also much more affordable. Wonder why that is...

Setting aside how the Mayor of Jersey City is the most based person in America and discussing the thread in general, this should be pretty intuitive. The overwhelming majority of new housing stock in America is 1) sprawl on the built-up fringe or 2) infill wherever permits can be pulled in top 35 metros (in areas that are already built up so replacing 3-4 story buildings with 3-4 story buildings wouldn't add any density.) For an example of this, you can see that basically the fastest growing parts of the DC metro have been Navy Yard, NoMa, etc.--and the Loudon County fringe. Fairfax, etc. got built out and stagnated. In the city of Los Angeles, about 25% of new homes since 2010 have been built Downtown--less than 1% of the city's land area. This is pretty intuitive. To the extent that normal urban densities in America have jumped from ~3-4 story apartments to 7-20 story apartment blocks, developers are going to site them as close to the center as they can until its entirely built out. This has happened in NYC--but most of America still has some pretty underutilized lots close to the city center. Moreover, these are usually the parts of the city with the least political opposition to such housing. Nobody cares if you throw up a 20 story building on a parking lot or warehouse within spitting distance of '80s office towers. Once you touch the bungalow belt it's another story altogether...


Yes, quite. And in the meantime, as long as I have a breath left in this desiccated old congestive heart failure ravaged body, I am going to do all I can to wrestle to the ground with my own emaciated bare two hands the artist’s conception of the hideous behemoth depicted below.* I pinned it to the ground once already by swinging a council member my way on a 5-4 vote, and have since wooed and I think won over a now newly elected council member at an adult beverages  bar for 4 hours, so I think the vote if Dracula comes back for more is a redux of a stake in his heart, this time 6-3. The satanic apparition will have to await effecting corporeal form until after that last breath has manifested itself. That’s the plan man!

*I live in the historic Schoolhouse Building to the left of the bestial apparition on the top floor and would face the damn spot from the kitchen and great room windows. You can savor Wall Street West in all its soulless glory in the distance across the rail yard in what you characterize as developer dominated Jersey City. The chic parts of JC are not themselves remotely “affordable” btw, but I digress. Check out the zone around Van Vorst (you can’t get any more Dutch than that) Park.






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Torie
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« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2022, 12:15:02 PM »

Hoboken, NJ is in a state of continual war as big time developers try to break out of the bulk constraints to build residential buildings much taller than the 4 to 5 story structures currently allowed. That is why the one square mile city went from 50,000 to 60,000 in the last 10 years.

Meanwhile, Jersey City has no interest in giving any ground to the anti-development types in the so-called "war", transcending the absurdity altogether and not conceding any ground to the NIMBYs. It's also much more affordable. Wonder why that is...

Setting aside how the Mayor of Jersey City is the most based person in America and discussing the thread in general, this should be pretty intuitive. The overwhelming majority of new housing stock in America is 1) sprawl on the built-up fringe or 2) infill wherever permits can be pulled in top 35 metros (in areas that are already built up so replacing 3-4 story buildings with 3-4 story buildings wouldn't add any density.) For an example of this, you can see that basically the fastest growing parts of the DC metro have been Navy Yard, NoMa, etc.--and the Loudon County fringe. Fairfax, etc. got built out and stagnated. In the city of Los Angeles, about 25% of new homes since 2010 have been built Downtown--less than 1% of the city's land area. This is pretty intuitive. To the extent that normal urban densities in America have jumped from ~3-4 story apartments to 7-20 story apartment blocks, developers are going to site them as close to the center as they can until its entirely built out. This has happened in NYC--but most of America still has some pretty underutilized lots close to the city center. Moreover, these are usually the parts of the city with the least political opposition to such housing. Nobody cares if you throw up a 20 story building on a parking lot or warehouse within spitting distance of '80s office towers. Once you touch the bungalow belt it's another story altogether...


Yes, quite. And in the meantime, as long as I have a breath left in this desiccated old congestive heart failure ravaged body, I am going to do all I can to wrestle to the ground with my own emaciated bare two hands the artist’s conception of the hideous behemoth depicted below.* I pinned it to the ground once already by swinging a council member my way on a 5-4 vote, and have since wooed and I think won over a now newly elected council member at an adult beverages  bar for 4 hours, so I think the vote if Dracula comes back for more is a redux of a stake in his heart, this time 6-3. The satanic apparition will have to await effecting corporeal form until after that last breath has manifested itself. That’s the plan man!

*I live in the historic Schoolhouse Building to the left of bestial apparition on the top floor and would face the damn spot from the kitchen and great room windows. You can savor Wall Street West in all its soulless glory in the distance across the rail yard in what you characterize as developer dominated Jersey City. The chic parts of JC are not themselves remotely “affordable” btw, but I digress. Check out the zone around Van Vorst (you can’t get any more Dutch than that) Park.

Thanks for doing your part to rob younger generations of even more wealth! So nice of you! Because of your actions, personally, hundreds of people won't get a decent home so you can be slightly less annoyed when you look out a window. You must really feel like you're making the world a better place, hm? I don't know what exactly you were expecting when you moved from Hudson to Hoboken, but thanks for illustrating why development should be by-right and neighbors don't deserve public input for these sorts of questions.

Also, retirement must be so boring. Do you really not have anything better to do with your time?

No absolutely not. Being a class enemy is job one in my life - always. Thanks for asking.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #27 on: January 20, 2022, 11:00:18 PM »

God this thread makes me so grateful to live in Singapore.
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« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2022, 12:24:37 AM »

Hoboken, NJ is in a state of continual war as big time developers try to break out of the bulk constraints to build residential buildings much taller than the 4 to 5 story structures currently allowed. That is why the one square mile city went from 50,000 to 60,000 in the last 10 years.

Meanwhile, Jersey City has no interest in giving any ground to the anti-development types in the so-called "war", transcending the absurdity altogether and not conceding any ground to the NIMBYs. It's also much more affordable. Wonder why that is...

Setting aside how the Mayor of Jersey City is the most based person in America and discussing the thread in general, this should be pretty intuitive. The overwhelming majority of new housing stock in America is 1) sprawl on the built-up fringe or 2) infill wherever permits can be pulled in top 35 metros (in areas that are already built up so replacing 3-4 story buildings with 3-4 story buildings wouldn't add any density.) For an example of this, you can see that basically the fastest growing parts of the DC metro have been Navy Yard, NoMa, etc.--and the Loudon County fringe. Fairfax, etc. got built out and stagnated. In the city of Los Angeles, about 25% of new homes since 2010 have been built Downtown--less than 1% of the city's land area. This is pretty intuitive. To the extent that normal urban densities in America have jumped from ~3-4 story apartments to 7-20 story apartment blocks, developers are going to site them as close to the center as they can until its entirely built out. This has happened in NYC--but most of America still has some pretty underutilized lots close to the city center. Moreover, these are usually the parts of the city with the least political opposition to such housing. Nobody cares if you throw up a 20 story building on a parking lot or warehouse within spitting distance of '80s office towers. Once you touch the bungalow belt it's another story altogether...


Yes, quite. And in the meantime, as long as I have a breath left in this desiccated old congestive heart failure ravaged body, I am going to do all I can to wrestle to the ground with my own emaciated bare two hands the artist’s conception of the hideous behemoth depicted below.* I pinned it to the ground once already by swinging a council member my way on a 5-4 vote, and have since wooed and I think won over a now newly elected council member at an adult beverages  bar for 4 hours, so I think the vote if Dracula comes back for more is a redux of a stake in his heart, this time 6-3. The satanic apparition will have to await effecting corporeal form until after that last breath has manifested itself. That’s the plan man!

*I live in the historic Schoolhouse Building to the left of bestial apparition on the top floor and would face the damn spot from the kitchen and great room windows. You can savor Wall Street West in all its soulless glory in the distance across the rail yard in what you characterize as developer dominated Jersey City. The chic parts of JC are not themselves remotely “affordable” btw, but I digress. Check out the zone around Van Vorst (you can’t get any more Dutch than that) Park.

Thanks for doing your part to rob younger generations of even more wealth! So nice of you! Because of your actions, personally, hundreds of people won't get a decent home so you can be slightly less annoyed when you look out a window. You must really feel like you're making the world a better place, hm? I don't know what exactly you were expecting when you moved from Hudson to Hoboken, but thanks for illustrating why development should be by-right and neighbors don't deserve public input for these sorts of questions.

Also, retirement must be so boring. Do you really not have anything better to do with your time?

No absolutely not. Being a class enemy is job one in my life - always. Thanks for asking.

Decent prose but could you provide photo evidence for your boomer talking point of “muh historical building” because I’m very bad I’m visualizing text sometimes?
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Torie
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« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2022, 08:15:22 AM »

It's the building to the left in the image.
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« Reply #30 on: June 18, 2023, 12:18:37 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

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« Reply #31 on: June 18, 2023, 06:42:32 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



This was interesting article on that and gets to the point that in the superstar cities, these are the places where new housing. In the case of NYC, the Williamsburg-Greenpoint-LIC area had major upzonings during the 2000s, which bears out in the subsequent population growth. Jersey City’s been pursuing one of the most aggressive pro-development agendas of any blue area in the country and in the style of an old-timey booster, has been explicit about wanting to be the largest city in the state. It shows in the population numbers.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2023, 08:04:56 PM »

I wonder if this is very high income professions that generally can't WFH (surgeons, senior bankers, law partners, etc.) taking advantage of falling condo prices in e.g. downtown Manhattan during COVID to live next door to work instead?
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« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2023, 09:13:49 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



This was interesting article on that and gets to the point that in the superstar cities, these are the places where new housing. In the case of NYC, the Williamsburg-Greenpoint-LIC area had major upzonings during the 2000s, which bears out in the subsequent population growth. Jersey City’s been pursuing one of the most aggressive pro-development agendas of any blue area in the country and in the style of an old-timey booster, has been explicit about wanting to be the largest city in the state. It shows in the population numbers.

Jersey City is insane. Jersey City insane of the I-95 (the downtown area with the most skyscrapers and most direct access to NYC) has gone from 44k folks to 66k folks in just 10 years, which is 50% growth. This part of Jersey City used to basically be a large industrial rail yard factory port area, and then became a bunch of parking lots with some scattered office buildings. Today, those parking lots are all being bought up and turning into high-rises. If you go on google maps today, you can still see a few parking lots but nearly all have plans to become something else.

Jersey City is single-handidly the reason I feel confident Ds should be fine in NJ long term, at least on the federal level.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #34 on: June 18, 2023, 10:23:56 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe. 
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« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2023, 10:32:52 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2023, 10:35:56 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.



Gold Coast precincts saw growth, but much less impressive tending to be more around 10%. From breif online images, seems like the Gold Coast neighborhood has been built up for a while and hasn't seen tons of new development.

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125
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« Reply #36 on: June 18, 2023, 11:07:49 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2023, 11:11:50 PM by khuzifenq »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.

-snip-

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125

Thanks for posting the source. The Oregon State House Districts that experienced the most growth don't surprise me, I'm not surprised to see the ones that contain the Intel campuses and the exurban Washington County one up there along with Deschutes County. The one with the highest growth isn't exurban but it does contain a trendy chunk of the I-405 loop of Portland proper and a fair chunk of unincorporated suburbia.

Not familiar enough with growth patterns on the Washington side to really comment, but it's interesting how the CD containing downtown Vancouver decreased in population.

The higher-growth CDs in King County in darker purple make intuitive sense to me. Gentrifying/more gentrified areas of Seattle proper north of downtown with lots of newer buildings, the Bellevue-Redmond CD around the Microsoft campus, and the Bothell-centered CD containing a lot of newly built housing tracts in Snohomish County.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #37 on: June 19, 2023, 04:14:48 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.



Gold Coast precincts saw growth, but much less impressive tending to be more around 10%. From breif online images, seems like the Gold Coast neighborhood has been built up for a while and hasn't seen tons of new development.

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125

I should have read more closely, as growth since 2010 does not necessarily surprise me.  However, I would bet that area has seen a significant decline since 2020 ... sure seems like it "on the ground."
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« Reply #38 on: June 19, 2023, 07:38:40 PM »




Re: population decline in Metro Los Angeles

I see you're from Los Angeles. Can you tell me what happened in 2017 that caused housing supply to stop being built? Is that because of governor Newsom being sworn in (actually IDK when that happened), or mayors statewide enacting some policies? Or was it that housing stopped being built a long time ago and only recently had the housing stock run out?

This problem certainly predates Newsom on housing. He certainly hasn't done anything to fix it--for which I despise him--but he also isn't at fault for creating the problem in the first place.

Our saga truly begins in the 1980s...

By 2017, you don't just have these two big structural problems (there is no more undeveloped land and cities won't upzone single-family areas, the only projects getting permitted are expensive high rises backed by a small handful of venture-capital firms) but you have a few demographic trends finally becoming dominant. First off, Silicon Valley and Hollywood are absolutely booming. This is great--we are so lucky to have these world-class industries--but if a bunch of high-payed singles or couples in these industries are replacing families in a fixed number of housing units, population is going to shrink. Second, California saw a massive immigration wave in the 1980s. For decades, 4-8 person families (usually of Mexican or Vietnamese origin) lived in working class neighborhoods in Southeast Los Angeles, Northwest Orange County, and the South Bay. As these families became wealthier and followed the general American trend of having fewer children, these neighborhoods have seen their median household size shrink by ~50%. When you look at what parts of California are actually shrinking, instead of being stagnant or slowly growing, it's these neighborhoods.
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« Reply #39 on: June 19, 2023, 10:11:21 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.

-snip-

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125

Thanks for posting the source. The Oregon State House Districts that experienced the most growth don't surprise me, I'm not surprised to see the ones that contain the Intel campuses and the exurban Washington County one up there along with Deschutes County. The one with the highest growth isn't exurban but it does contain a trendy chunk of the I-405 loop of Portland proper and a fair chunk of unincorporated suburbia.

Not familiar enough with growth patterns on the Washington side to really comment, but it's interesting how the CD containing downtown Vancouver decreased in population.

The higher-growth CDs in King County in darker purple make intuitive sense to me. Gentrifying/more gentrified areas of Seattle proper north of downtown with lots of newer buildings, the Bellevue-Redmond CD around the Microsoft campus, and the Bothell-centered CD containing a lot of newly built housing tracts in Snohomish County.

Quick caveat, no districts in the Vancouver WA shrunk in population, though the one in the immediate downtown grew slower than the state at large - that might be what you're referring too. Infact, not a single HD in the entire state of WA shrunk.
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« Reply #40 on: June 19, 2023, 10:16:56 PM »

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.



What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.

Gold Coast precincts saw growth, but much less impressive tending to be more around 10%. From breif online images, seems like the Gold Coast neighborhood has been built up for a while and hasn't seen tons of new development.


I should have read more closely, as growth since 2010 does not necessarily surprise me.  However, I would bet that area has seen a significant decline since 2020 ... sure seems like it "on the ground."

It's kind of weird because I feel similar living in a dense part of NYC, even though I still see all these large apartment buildings being built and rapid gentrification of certain communities, and rents are only increasing. I wonder if the general media around COVID and cities sort of fuels this idea in our minds that downtowns of cities are undesirable now with remote work, so when we see anything that supports that narrative, we're more likely to notice it and log it in our heads.

I think the general theme of what is happening in cities like NYC and Chicago is the "gentrification bubble" is expanding, pricing out more lower- and middle-class neighborhoods, particularly those of color, but what replaces them is denser development of more "educated elite" types. Families who may have lived in the city for decades or even generations being priced out gets more media than the doctors, lawyers, and computer engineers moving in.
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Sol
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« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2023, 10:49:56 AM »

Interestingly, the Northern/Western portions of Uptown Charlotte are actually whiter than the Southern/Eastern portions, which has the still fairly Black First Ward area. This is the opposite of the typical pattern in Charlotte, since South Charlotte is the rich white favored quarter overall and the neighborhoods to the immediate east of Uptown are fairly white these days due to gentrification (places like NoDa, Plaza-Midwood, etc. seem like the kind of places BRTD would live in in Charlotte).

I've been reading a little bit about Charlotte local history recently, and apparently a lot of this pattern is down to elevation differences (the 2nd ward in particular being prone to flooding) and then racially discriminatory "urban renewal" (aka the mass demolition of the 2nd ward) leading to previously integrated areas in Uptown becoming predominantly Black due to residential demand from displaced residents.

Meanwhile, the first neighborhoods outside of Uptown were streetcar suburbs to the south and southwest of the central city, explicitly designed and marketed by some of Charlotte's most powerful white residents.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2023, 09:52:40 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2023, 10:02:48 PM by Communism Enjoyer »

This was something that was hyped up a lot when peak oil doomerism was big and an energy crisis presaged the Great Recession...before the dramatic increase in US oil production started to cause a noticeable downward pressure on transportation costs in the mid-2010s. While I don't think we'll disperse nearly as much as was hyped up during COVID- remote work can't be nearly that widespread and people still want to live close to amenities- it looks like the suburbanization trend is here to stay. This is just a gentrifier thing.

Something will have to be done about the commuting situation in Houston, though, because it's going to be a crisis someday. The sprawl is too big and the traffic congestion is crazy. As much as I miss Texas I don't know how I could have done it there. Packing people in the inner-city again won't be a solution though, for quality of life or for sustainability (I'm skeptical that the technologies that could support a sustainable high-density city like vertical farming will ever be as productive and comparatively energy efficient as field farming).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2023, 10:52:32 PM »

This was something that was hyped up a lot when peak oil doomerism was big and an energy crisis presaged the Great Recession...before the dramatic increase in US oil production started to cause a noticeable downward pressure on transportation costs in the mid-2010s. While I don't think we'll disperse nearly as much as was hyped up during COVID- remote work can't be nearly that widespread and people still want to live close to amenities- it looks like the suburbanization trend is here to stay. This is just a gentrifier thing.

Something will have to be done about the commuting situation in Houston, though, because it's going to be a crisis someday. The sprawl is too big and the traffic congestion is crazy. As much as I miss Texas I don't know how I could have done it there. Packing people in the inner-city again won't be a solution though, for quality of life or for sustainability (I'm skeptical that the technologies that could support a sustainable high-density city like vertical farming will ever be as productive and comparatively energy efficient as field farming).

What's interesting is in a lot of major US cities, it seems like the fastest growing parts (based on 2020 numbers) were the immediate downtown and then the outer ring of suburbs/exurbs.

The issue with most US suburbs today is one they are filled in, the population can't really increase without upzoning which tends to be very difficult. However places that were upzoned from the start have a much higher theoretical cap on their capacity. I wonder if some of the folks moving into downtowns of cities are people who in an ideal world may have chosen to live in the inner-ring of suburbs, but are locked out, and they don't want to move to the outer ring cause it's too far from the city's amenities, and hence they choose to live downtown.

A good example of how stark the urban dropoff can be because of zoning is in NYC between the Bronx and Westchester County where it goes from true urban to very suburban very fast. The way zoning works is very different between counties. There are a handful of subway lines that end literally at the County border. On Google Earth, you can see the notable drop off from a mixing of single and multifamily dwellings to all single-family homes, often with yardspace.
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