We almost never hear about states that are now Democratic that will soon be winnable for the GOP

[TheReckoning]

We hear about how Texas will soon be winnable for Democrats. We hear about how Democrats should soon target states like Alaska, Kansas.

We never hear the same for Republicans. Occasionally mentions of states such as New Mexico or Maine are quickly shut down as impossible.

[EastwoodS]

Bc it’s only trendy and cool to boast for Dems on this site.

[Gass3268]

New Mexico and Maine? Both states trended Dem.

Nevada is probably the top choice.

[DS0816]

We hear about how Texas will soon be winnable for Democrats. We hear about how Democrats should soon target states like Alaska, Kansas.

We never hear the same for Republicans. Occasionally mentions of states such as New Mexico or Maine are quickly shut down as impossible.

I wrote about some of that here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566


(My sense of this for the Republicans: Minnesota and statewide Maine.)

[Grumpier Than Thou]

It feels like we hear about how close Minnesota is to flipping every cycle. Also, a bunch of states went from being pretty reliably Democrat to being swingy/lean GOP states (Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) in the last decade or two so trends are now more favorable to Dems

[Xing]

Literally everyone mentions Nevada, some claiming that it’s inevitable that it’ll be a red state soon. Other than that, Maine is definitely a possibility, and Delaware and Rhode Island could become more competitive in the future. If Democrats really do crater among Latinos, then New Mexico is a possibility, but it’s still fairly hard to imagine them remaining a competitive party if they tank that badly.

[One Term Floridian]

Literally everyone mentions Nevada, some claiming that it’s inevitable that it’ll be a red state soon. Other than that, Maine is definitely a possibility, and Delaware and Rhode Island could become more competitive in the future. If Democrats really do crater among Latinos, then New Mexico is a possibility, but it’s still fairly hard to imagine them remaining a competitive party if they tank that badly.

RI is an underrated possibility. Perhaps in the next realignment

[MABA 2020]

The Republican equivalents are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which obviously have already flipped once. GOP is just further ahead than the democrats

[TheReckoning]

The Republican equivalents are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which obviously have already flipped once. GOP is just further ahead than the democrats

Those states haven't been safe Republican states in 100 years.

[MABA 2020]

The Republican equivalents are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which obviously have already flipped once. GOP is just further ahead than the democrats

Those states haven't been safe Republican states in 100 years.

Yes, and now they're becoming more Republican again making them the opposite of states like Texas

[RINO Tom]

Many (most) Democratic hacks here are under the impression that one votes Republican for objectively bad reasons, and one votes Democratic for objectively good reasons.  A small business owner isn't voting Republican because he believes his livelihood might just be at stake, he's doing it because he is greedy.  A university professor isn't voting Democratic because he believes his livelihood might just be at stake, he's doing it because he's educated and enlightened.

When operating under this simplistic view, states moving toward the Democrats is an objective "improvement" for that state, and therefore it must be growing, vibrant and becoming less "bad" compared to its former self; in other words, the right kind of people are moving in.  So, they look at a map, look where there are "cool" metro areas that are "growing" and simply assume that they will eventually become a conquest of a Yuppie army.  This of course completely ignores changes in political environments, Republicans also having the means to move, Democratic voters who lack the means to move, etc .... but I believe it to be the root of the one-sided stupidity on this topic.

[MT Treasurer]

Nevada, New Mexico, and then (to a lesser extent) Maine, Rhode Island, and Delaware all hold serious potential for Republicans in the sense that Republicans are performing "below" of where you would expect them to end up given the demographic realities of and migration patterns to those states — not that hard to see the first two or three flipping (or, at the very least, NM becoming a swing state and NV turning into something resembling today's FL) and the others becoming competitive by the 2030s. I also think Vermont, California, New York, and New Jersey (as well as Massachusetts, but again to a lesser extent) are likely to become considerably less Democratic over the next 10-15 years, which should narrow the R-favoring disparity between the PV and the EC, although I’d obviously be very surprised if more than one of them actually flipped before the mid-2030s (if one did, it would probably be NJ unless there was a large influx of Republican-leaning voters from NY/MA/other states to VT).

Either way, I do think there’s a good chance we’ll look back at 2020 as the electoral high-water mark for Democrats in much of New England, but especially VT/MA/ME/RI (I think CT and NH are a little more ambiguous).

[Del Tachi]

The GOP trends in states like OH, MO and IA have been so significant that these states are now essentially off the table for Democrats, thus greatly improving the GOP's standing in the electoral college compared to where it was 20 years ago.  This is as significant as any potential "flip."

[S019]

Maine is the obvious candidate, Nevada is also another one (even if it isn't really a Democratic state). I'm less sure about NM than many, Republicans do absolutely awful in the Albuquerque area which seems important to an R win in the state. Rhode Island is one that I could see down the line (though obviously not in the near future). I do generally agree that if any safe D states do vote Republican soon, they'd likely come from New England, that is mostly a consequence of the low population in those states, and the heavily Democratic rurals there, which if rural/urban polarization continues, would eventually start to trend Republican. I don't see California and New York happening, these states are full of demographics that are awful for the GOP. To put into perspective what the GOP needs to win CA and NY, they likely need to flip San Diego County in CA and Westchester County in NY, neither of these are ripe ground for the GOP unless they improve with urban and suburban white voters, if that happens, then we are probably returning to more of a 2004-alignment and states like VA and CO are once again on the table for Republicans. The metros in Texas have been moving towards Democrats for 20 years now and talk of a blue Texas has been a Democratic dream for many, many years now. Flipping large states like that is a multi-year project, and by most estimates Democrats will still likely be waiting another 7-11 years to see a blue Texas. Even if talk of it is assumed to have begun in 2010, that'd be 18-22 years after that. So ultimately, the Republicans need a lot of effort to make CA or NY competitive and we have seen none of it so far. Even if said shift occurs, it'll likely be more than a decade before it yields results, solely due to the sheer population of those states. One last thing, the factors that drive this shift may in fact usher in a whole new coalition for the parties and in that sense, it has occurred in an alignment far different than our own.