Echelon Insights nat.: D: Harris 30% Buttigieg 12% Warren 8%; R: DeSantis 28% Pence 16% Trump Jr 11%

[Mr. Morden]

Echelon Insights national poll, conducted Jan. 21-23:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-2022-Omnibus-2024-AND-PARTY-DYNAMICS-TOPLINE.pdf

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1487266541443895301

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1487264315224821763

They also list these 2-person Dem. matchups:

M. Obama 53%
Harris 34%

M. Obama 51%
Biden 40%

Harris 56%
Buttigieg 28%

And this 2-person GOP matchup:

Trump 57%
DeSantis 32%

[President Johnson]

If Trump indeed ends up running, he should really be concerned by these DeSantis numbers. At least if that keeps up.

Without Biden, Kamala probably has this, though I think she will have to fight for the nomination. It will more be like 2016 and not like 2000.

I have no f-ing idea why they continue to poll Michelle Obama. This is so ridiculous.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-Omnibus-Party-Dynamics-and-Political-Release-Crosstabs-1.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

white:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 5%

black:
Harris 46%
Abrams 14%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 4%

Hispanic:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%

age 18-29:
Harris 20%
Abrams 12%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 5%
Warren 5%

age 65+:
Harris 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Warren 10%
Abrams 7%

(Harris’s strongest age cohort is actually age 30-39, where she’s at 39%.)

A few GOP crosstabs…

urban:
DeSantis 22%
Pence 21%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 6%

suburban:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 15%
Trump Jr. 10%
Romney 6%

rural:
DeSantis 25%
Pence 14%
Trump Jr. 13%
Cruz 11%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 27%
Pence 19%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 7%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 33%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 10%
Cruz 9%

And finally, the DeSantis vs. Trump primary matchup:

income less than $30k: Trump +40%
income $30k-49k: Trump +40%
income $50k-74k: Trump +17%
income $75-125k: Trump +16%
income over $125k: DeSantis +25%

So yes, yet another poll in which DeSantis is winning among the richest Republican primary voters.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Interesting things I noticed while skimming the crosstabs:

• AAPI crosstab (47 out of 1027) leans disapprove of Biden admin despite approving of Biden’s handling of every individual issue they polled. The AAPI approval of Trump is surprisingly high (32% compared to 13-19% for the black and Hispanic crosstabs), although this is mostly driven by the 29% who responded “somewhat approve”.
• AAPI crosstab is more favorable for Buttigieg (39%) than Latinos (34%), who are more pro-Buttigieg than whites or blacks (27-28%) as a whole. AAPI crosstab also has highest favorability for Chuck Schumer (52%) than every other racial group, which are all under 50%. However, AAPI crosstab is the most anti-DeSantis (10/51), more than blacks (8/40), Latinos (20/32), or whites (36/28).
• Joe Rogan favorability is the first one where AAPI approvals closely follow black approvals (17/28 vs 15/25), while whites are 25/26 and Hispanics are 35/22. Joe Rogan’s favorables are mostly constant across the income brackets but his unfavorables increase with increasing income.
• AAPI crosstab is most likely to say they should refer to Latinos by their specific country of origin (41%), although they also seem to prefer “Hispanic” over “Latino/a” (39/12) by a similar ratio as the white crosstab (42/13). Hispanic crosstab preferred “Hispanic” to “Latino/a” 55/30. “Latino/a” [which is my preferred term for Spanish-speaking people of Latin American heritage] is most prevalent among “HS or less” (20%) and D/D-leaning (21%)
• AAPI crosstab for 2022 GCB is 58 D/23 R, which is closer to blacks (78/10) and Hispanics (72/16) than to college(+) whites (41/47).

The 2024 Dem primary AAPI crosstab is very small (26 people) but it’s comparatively pro-Buttigieg, pro-Warren, and unsure/“up for grabs”.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

M. Obama 53%
Harris 34%

M. Obama 51%
Biden 40%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-Omnibus-Party-Dynamics-and-Political-Release-Crosstabs-1.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

white:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 5%

black:
Harris 46%
Abrams 14%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 4%

Hispanic:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%

age 18-29:
Harris 20%
Abrams 12%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 5%
Warren 5%

age 65+:
Harris 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Warren 10%
Abrams 7%

(Harris’s strongest age cohort is actually age 30-39, where she’s at 39%.)

A few GOP crosstabs…

urban:
DeSantis 22%
Pence 21%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 6%

suburban:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 15%
Trump Jr. 10%
Romney 6%

rural:
DeSantis 25%
Pence 14%
Trump Jr. 13%
Cruz 11%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 27%
Pence 19%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 7%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 33%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 10%
Cruz 9%

And finally, the DeSantis vs. Trump primary matchup:

income less than $30k: Trump +40%
income $30k-49k: Trump +40%
income $50k-74k: Trump +17%
income $75-125k: Trump +16%
income over $125k: DeSantis +25%

So yes, yet another poll in which DeSantis is winning among the richest Republican primary voters.

DeSantis is the candidate of the rich establishment elites. Trump is the candidate of the working class poor.
I will not support any Republican who does not attack McConnell.

[Skill and Chance]

For the first time, I think DeSantis could make it vs. Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For the first time, I think DeSantis could make it vs. Trump.

DeSantis has to win reelection he is the Fav against Crist and is leading only by 6, he beat a socialist Afro American in 2018 not a real opponent and so did Greg Abbott who beat socialism Valdez it's gonna be harder for them to beat Beto and Crist😆😆😆😆

If Trump isn't Convicted he is definitely running and GA have RCrts and it's iffy he he gets Prosecuted there that's why it's slow, R Crts and Biden is definitely running, at the very least we are gonna have a D Senate, if we lose the H it can be won back in 24 Rs aren't winning 248 seats

[Sir Mohamed]

For the first time, I think DeSantis could make it vs. Trump.

Nah, once Trump starts attacking him, his numbers will drop and he'll be out of the race before a single ballot is cast or after being wiped out in IA.

[Schiff for Senate]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-Omnibus-Party-Dynamics-and-Political-Release-Crosstabs-1.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

white:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 5%

black:
Harris 46%
Abrams 14%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 4%

Hispanic:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%

age 18-29:
Harris 20%
Abrams 12%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 5%
Warren 5%

age 65+:
Harris 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Warren 10%
Abrams 7%

(Harris’s strongest age cohort is actually age 30-39, where she’s at 39%.)

A few GOP crosstabs…

urban:
DeSantis 22%
Pence 21%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 6%

suburban:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 15%
Trump Jr. 10%
Romney 6%

rural:
DeSantis 25%
Pence 14%
Trump Jr. 13%
Cruz 11%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 27%
Pence 19%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 7%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 33%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 10%
Cruz 9%

And finally, the DeSantis vs. Trump primary matchup:

income less than $30k: Trump +40%
income $30k-49k: Trump +40%
income $50k-74k: Trump +17%
income $75-125k: Trump +16%
income over $125k: DeSantis +25%

So yes, yet another poll in which DeSantis is winning among the richest Republican primary voters.

DeSantis is the candidate of the rich establishment elites. Trump is the candidate of the working class poor.
I will not support any Republican who does not attack McConnell.

Trump's 2017 tax cuts - which almost exclusively benefitted the ultra-rich - suggest otherwise. Trump being a working class candidate is what he'd like them to believe, and it's ironic you and so many other people do, given that he is, I believe, the richest president in history.


Also, as for the anti-McConnell sentiment, you may well be an exception and it's fairly possible you've genuinely disliked McConnell all along - but for a lot of right-wingers, McConnell was all right until he called out Trump on the Big Lie and January 6, so any anti-McConnell sentiment coming from there is utterly fraudulent (though again, I don't know much about your views, so your dislike of him could be more consistent).

[Del Tachi]

For the first time, I think DeSantis could make it vs. Trump.

Nah, once Trump starts attacking him, his numbers will drop and he'll be out of the race before a single ballot is cast or after being wiped out in IA.

Trump has been attacking him, but ok whatever lol

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, the Democratic Party may really be doomed. Ironic that in the end it probably won't even be the Republican's lurch into anti-democratic authoritarianism that does it, so much as the party nominating totally unelectable duds.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Are Harris and Buttigieg really the future of the Democratic Party?

Guess I'm staying lime green for a loooong time.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-Omnibus-Party-Dynamics-and-Political-Release-Crosstabs-1.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

white:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 5%

black:
Harris 46%
Abrams 14%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 4%

Hispanic:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%

age 18-29:
Harris 20%
Abrams 12%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 5%
Warren 5%

age 65+:
Harris 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Warren 10%
Abrams 7%

(Harris’s strongest age cohort is actually age 30-39, where she’s at 39%.)

A few GOP crosstabs…

urban:
DeSantis 22%
Pence 21%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 6%

suburban:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 15%
Trump Jr. 10%
Romney 6%

rural:
DeSantis 25%
Pence 14%
Trump Jr. 13%
Cruz 11%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 27%
Pence 19%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 7%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 33%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 10%
Cruz 9%

And finally, the DeSantis vs. Trump primary matchup:

income less than $30k: Trump +40%
income $30k-49k: Trump +40%
income $50k-74k: Trump +17%
income $75-125k: Trump +16%
income over $125k: DeSantis +25%

So yes, yet another poll in which DeSantis is winning among the richest Republican primary voters.

DeSantis is the candidate of the rich establishment elites. Trump is the candidate of the working class poor.
I will not support any Republican who does not attack McConnell.

Trump's 2017 tax cuts - which almost exclusively benefitted the ultra-rich - suggest otherwise. Trump being a working class candidate is what he'd like them to believe, and it's ironic you and so many other people do, given that he is, I believe, the richest president in history.


Also, as for the anti-McConnell sentiment, you may well be an exception and it's fairly possible you've genuinely disliked McConnell all along - but for a lot of right-wingers, McConnell was all right until he called out Trump on the Big Lie and January 6, so any anti-McConnell sentiment coming from there is utterly fraudulent (though again, I don't know much about your views, so your dislike of him could be more consistent).

DeSantis would for sure have done even more extreme tax cuts on the wealthy.
And I have always been a criticizer of McConnell. McConnell doesn't want any actual right-wing legislation, he just wants his milquetoast conservative judges and tax cuts, which the base doesn't care about.

[Schiff for Senate]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-Omnibus-Party-Dynamics-and-Political-Release-Crosstabs-1.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

white:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 7%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 5%

black:
Harris 46%
Abrams 14%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 4%

Hispanic:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 6%

age 18-29:
Harris 20%
Abrams 12%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 5%
Warren 5%

age 65+:
Harris 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Warren 10%
Abrams 7%

(Harris’s strongest age cohort is actually age 30-39, where she’s at 39%.)

A few GOP crosstabs…

urban:
DeSantis 22%
Pence 21%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 6%

suburban:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 15%
Trump Jr. 10%
Romney 6%

rural:
DeSantis 25%
Pence 14%
Trump Jr. 13%
Cruz 11%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 27%
Pence 19%
Romney 10%
Trump Jr. 7%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 33%
Trump Jr. 17%
Pence 10%
Cruz 9%

And finally, the DeSantis vs. Trump primary matchup:

income less than $30k: Trump +40%
income $30k-49k: Trump +40%
income $50k-74k: Trump +17%
income $75-125k: Trump +16%
income over $125k: DeSantis +25%

So yes, yet another poll in which DeSantis is winning among the richest Republican primary voters.

DeSantis is the candidate of the rich establishment elites. Trump is the candidate of the working class poor.
I will not support any Republican who does not attack McConnell.

Trump's 2017 tax cuts - which almost exclusively benefitted the ultra-rich - suggest otherwise. Trump being a working class candidate is what he'd like them to believe, and it's ironic you and so many other people do, given that he is, I believe, the richest president in history.


Also, as for the anti-McConnell sentiment, you may well be an exception and it's fairly possible you've genuinely disliked McConnell all along - but for a lot of right-wingers, McConnell was all right until he called out Trump on the Big Lie and January 6, so any anti-McConnell sentiment coming from there is utterly fraudulent (though again, I don't know much about your views, so your dislike of him could be more consistent).

DeSantis would for sure have done even more extreme tax cuts on the wealthy.
And I have always been a criticizer of McConnell. McConnell doesn't want any actual right-wing legislation, he just wants his milquetoast conservative judges and tax cuts, which the base doesn't care about.

That's fair. I have respect for those who've consistently been anti-McConnell; I even have respect for those who have consistently been pro-McConnell. The people I absolutely cannot stand are those who were pro-McConnell until he critized January 6 and the Big Lie, and then had the nerve to turn on him and call him a RINO for doing so.

[Eraserhead]

If Sinema was going to be included, wouldn't it have made more sense to poll her in the Republican race?