NRSC internals of GA and NV: Laxalt +4 and Walker +1

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.

[Roll Roons]

Warnock just needs to keep Walker below 50%.  He would have a really good chance in a runoff once control is already decided.

Imagine if Senate control came down to a runoff again - not out of the realm of possibility.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.

If this is the best an internal can do for Walker right now in GA he's going to have a hard time flipping the seat.

Yeah. In terms of vulnerability, Warnock and Hassan are clearly a tier below Kelly or Cortez Masto.

[Roll Roons]

With these national conditions and this being an internal, this is an awful performance for Walker. I wonder how much of a factor his carpetbagging and domestic abuse claims are.

It comes down to a lot of things:
-Walker's personal baggage
-The state's fundamentals (inelasticity and demographic trends being brutal for the GOP)
-Georgia Democrats being among the competent state parties in the country
-Warnock being a good candidate