2024 - A Blank Canvas (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 07:37:41 PM
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2024 - A Blank Canvas (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 - A Blank Canvas  (Read 28985 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« on: January 08, 2022, 01:18:05 AM »

I predict Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina will be Republican Presidential Nominee.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2022, 09:01:22 PM »

@SaintStan86,
No Nikki Haley in Florida? That is a big surprise given that Pence was there.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2022, 04:02:12 AM »

With Trump not running the Door is open for DeSantis or Tim Scott.

Tim Scott/Ron DeSantis Ticket or vise-versa would be nice.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2022, 06:12:51 AM »


Now, back to the TL for some current events:
  • A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
  • Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
  • Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:
  • As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
  • With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

Ohio is not a Toss Up anymore otherwise I agree with your Map.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2022, 12:01:35 AM »

Why is the National Republican Senatorial Cmt. not recruiting former Interior Secretary under Donald Trump Rep. Ryan Zinke to run in Montana.

That Seat is gone for Tester if Zinke runs.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2022, 02:59:28 PM »

@SaintStan86,
I could see Ivanka Trump endorsing Nikki Haley. They were very close when Haley was UN Ambassador!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2022, 08:46:12 PM »

Surprised Haley is doing as well as she is doing!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2022, 12:37:39 PM »

Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton have no chance of winning! All 3 are basically angling for a Cabinet Position in a DeSantis-Administration. All 3 would be incredibly suited for Secretary of State. Cotton would be a good Secretary of Defense too.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2022, 08:23:55 PM »

Iowa is going to be interesting and very close on the Republican Side. Pence & Sasse fighting over the same Group of Voters: Evangelicals. Most of them live geographically speaking in northwest Iowa, Feenstras District. If Pence/Sasse split them up that opens the Door for Haley if she gets enough Turnout in Des Moines and the Suburbs around it and in Eastern Iowa.

Pence/Sasse played a very dangerous Game here.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2022, 04:14:33 AM »

If Haley does sneak out a narrow win in New Hampshire she will become the Frontrunner. Even if she would lose narrowly she would be in good shape with South Carolina looming.
Has Governor Sununu endorsed anyone?
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2022, 03:44:16 PM »

@SaintStan86,
If Haley is favoured in her Home State of South Carolina she is also likely favoured in Virginia which votes on Super Tuesday 1 I think given the large swath of Military Voters the State has.

Very enjoyable TL Smiley
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2022, 03:46:39 PM »

Nevada is a MUST-WIN for Ron DeSantis otherwise Haley is running away with the Nomination.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2022, 02:19:47 PM »

Haley needs to win NC & VA. If she does she will still be viable Candidate going forward.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2022, 07:13:01 AM »

Congrats Governor Ron DeSantis and Vice President Harris to be the respective Party Nominees.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2022, 11:53:42 AM »

@SaintStan86,
Could you post a Map of the Primaries for the D & R Nomination so we can see what's still out?
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2022, 08:23:04 AM »

@SaintStan86,
I am massivly curious whom Governor DeSantis & Vice President Harris pick as their Running Mates.

I could make a good case DeSantis picking a Woman just like he did in 2018 when he ran for Governor and picked Jeanette Nunez.

As for Vice President Harris I could see her picking fellow Presidential Contender & North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper is termed out in 2024.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2022, 06:49:17 AM »

I hope Governor Ron DeSantis picks a Woman as Veep and his Spokesperson Christina Pushaw should acknowledge the large Gender Gap Biden was able to create to win over several Battleground States in 2020 over Trump.

Women Vote Battleground States 2020

Nationally: 57-42 Biden

Nevada: 54-44 Biden
Georgia: 54-45 Biden
Pennsylvania: 55-44 Biden
Michigan: 57-43 Biden
Wisconsin: 56-43 Biden

(Source: NBC Exit Polls)

You cannot win a National Election if you get clobbered by 15 Points among Women.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2022, 04:35:49 PM »

@SaintStan86,
The more I think about it Governor DeSantis should really select former UN-Ambassador Nikki Haley as Running Mate. Yes, he might irk some people in Trumpworld if he does but heck even Trump himself considered replacing Mike Pence with Nikki Haley for the 2020 Election.

Haley would be the perfect fit to boost up the Foreign Policy Credentials of the Ticket.

As far as Adam Schiff is concerned DeSantis should hit back at Harris saying "No Senator, Adam Schiff did not a phenomenal job for the Country as you claim. Russian Collusion Hoax, Impeachment 1 Hoax among other things".
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2022, 11:03:53 AM »

I expect the DeSantis - Harris Presidential Race to pick up very soon. There is always a lull in Presidential Races before the Conventions until the Nominees pick their Running Mates.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2022, 09:07:53 AM »

Ivanka Trump introducing the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee? Got to be Nikki Haley then as Haley, Ivanka & her husband Jared Kushner worked pretty closely together in the Trump White House on Foreign Policy.

Nice Convention Speakers List though! A good mix! Gives you an idea how DeSantis would govern were he fortunate enough to win in November.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2022, 06:15:47 PM »

@SaintStan86,
The Vice Presidential Reveal Post was very well done! Congrats!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2022, 03:03:05 PM »

Day 1 of the RNC belonged mostly to Trump.

Day 2 will likely belong to Governor Glenn Youngkin & Casey DeSantis especially after what she had to go through. Cancer Survivor!!!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2022, 07:21:43 PM »

SaintStan86,

Amazing Post!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2022, 07:40:27 AM »
« Edited: July 26, 2022, 08:00:54 AM by 2016 »

With the Rally being in Michigan everyone thinks it will be Gary Peters. But often Presidential Nominees do something excatly the opposite to throw off the Media.

My guess is Vice President Kamala Harris picks a more conservative, moderate Democrat like Roy Cooper.

These Swing Counties in Michigan are very important HOWEVER so is North Carolina. If Harris can snatch the Tar Heel State the Republican Map would become waaay more complicated.

Cooper would also bring much needed Executive Experience to the Ticket.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2022, 08:49:33 AM »

When DeSantis wins we could look at a 7-2 SCOTUS.
Odds-On Favourite to replace Breyer if DeSantis wins would be United States Appeals Court Circuit Judge for the 11th District BARBARA LAGOA.

Republicans seem more united in this TL evident by Trump burying the hatchet with former President George W. Bush & the Bush Family.

That was a pretty darn powerful moment at the Final Night of the RNC seeing Governor DeSantis alongside two former Presidents, Trump and Bush.
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