2024 - A Blank Canvas

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I thought races for Governor of Illinois occur in non presidential election year's? So how come Governor's race in Illinois is occurring in 2024?

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Focus on more House and Senate contests; as presidential contest won't be too interesting at least until after the summer. I think whoever Harris or DeSantis pick for Vice President won't reveal too much. So the House and Senate contests add sizzle to the story.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

The state contests are far more interesting than the presidential contest! Who gives a cr*p about the DeSantis-Harris contest? I'd bet it will BORING!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I expect the DeSantis - Harris Presidential Race to pick up very soon. There is always a lull in Presidential Races before the Conventions until the Nominees pick their Running Mates.

That may be the case, but the presidential contest while interesting, is pretty one dimensional; polling, maps, Debates and the Vice-presidential contenders. However the state contests are more interesting and the state profiles along with the political dynamics of each state's provide more material, I would give the occasional update on the presidential contest, while focusing on the state contests! I notice that storylines focus too much on Presidential contests, but not enough on individual state contests!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

DeSantis will be one-term President should he win in this TL if he packs the Courts. Any Court-Packing should be a NO-GO for a Republican. He would never get such a Proposal through the Senate.

So I suppose its okay if a Democrat goes the Court packing route! Funny I have the view that court packing is NO-GO for a Democrat and would never get such a proposal through the Senate! If it's a Republican doing the Court packing, I am fine with that. I think DeSantis will and would be a two-term president as well.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Good thread and it appears that Ron DeSantis will likely cruise to a resounding victory! Imagine if California goes for DeSantis and Harris support in the Golden state is middling at best! Could Kevin McCarthy's undervote catapult DeSantis to a lead! Especially with support in DeSantis in Orange County and the Inland Empire be a tipping point? It will be interesting to see how the election unfolds. Bet Harris is probably wishing that the Reno debate never occurred.
One caveat that should be included regarding Harris and the fact she never competed against a Republican in California. She didn't even poll well in the state in the lead up to the primaries in 2020, compelling her to withdraw. She comes across as a tad too toxic and something tells that doesn't wear too well and I could imagine, if it's between DeSantis and Harris in California, DeSantis could possibly win in California. It would be an interesting development in the storyline.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

If this were to happen, and Trump won by these number's, Democrats would have an epic meltdown and would begin another campaign of sabotage (e.g. Russia 🇷🇺 interference in the presidential election and that Trump colluded with the Russian's, well since it worked so well the first time and figuring that any voter who supported Trump must be a Russian bot - they figure everyone is that dumb, so why not try the Russia interference angle again!). Or if the Russia 🇷🇺 interference scam doesn't work, they'll accuse China next! I mean how could Joe Biden lose so badly? It's the electoral system, right? Anything to make Trump's life difficult! They'll probably try some scam, like the Russia 🇷🇺 Interference Mk. 2 on DeSantis. That map outcome looks like the final DeSantis vs. Harris outcome in this storyline.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I'm not in agreement on that score! Harris is not competitive in this election, is not because DeSantis  is Ronald Reagan 2.0 or anything like that, it's because in her Californicated PC world view, along with her toxic unlikeability, her virtue signalling liberalism as well as being politically clueless, DeSantis is viewed as a more palpable alternative. Don't forget Andrew Yang's presence in this equation,  Democrats can vote for him rather than Harris, hence the outcome we are getting in this timeline. You will note that Harris is encountering problems in Vermont because Yang is siphoning off votes, that gives DeSantis his opening, plus DeSantis is using an almagation of Romney's strategy and fusing it with his popularity with the Trump base and the same kind of messaging that helped Youngkin in Virginia. Also Harris debate performance in Reno regarding China has created all sorts of problems. Let's face it, DeSantis is a better and more cannier political actor than Harris is. Why wasn't Biden more proactive in helping Harris than he was? It appears he only offered token support, no more or no less. Anyway if this storyline was showing Harris doing as well as DeSantis is and was performing as well or better than Biden, then you'd be perfectly happy, right?  And Da2017 seems to find the fact that DeSantis is going to win. We all know that Harris should be winning in a landslide according to Da2017, isn't that right Da2017?🙄🤣

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

It appears that DeSantis has more paths available to the 270 magic number! Should he carry Georgia and North Carolina next, Harris's pathway gets more narrower. If he takes either Pennsylvania or Michigan or both, it becomes virtually impossible for Harris to win. The way that DeSantis is performing in the WOW counties of Wisconsin suggests a national trend in DeSantis's favor. I'd like to see some news from either Connecticut or New Jersey. It's an interesting sidebar regarding the Oz-Menendez race in New Jersey. As for Ohio, I have a feeling that Brown is gonna lose to Jordan. Now with regards to the Vogel-Kaine contest in Virginia, and taking into account that Vogel is an apostle of Youngkin, it is possible that if Kaine is to win, it will be by a squeaker, but Vogel appears to be benefiting from the DeSantis overvote.  Now how is John James doing against Whitmer in Michigan? Josh Hawley seems to be having a tough time of it in Missouri, could this state be a flip? The Kander-Ashcroft gubernatorial contest in Missouri appears equally interesting.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

The Republicans will win VT-SEN too?

I hope the DSCC are the first ones sent to the concentration camps.

They had a good crop of candidates, it's just the Harris factor that's the problem! The PC and her inability to connect is the problem! She might be okay for New York and California, but she's going to win them anyway, but she basically ignored "Fly-over country", likely a costly mistake, also assuming that the Republican brand was going to help her, is political malfeasance. The fact she's under performing in Georgia is telling and what's going on in New Jersey? Might DeSantis be the first Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988 to win the Garden state? Bottom line, Kamala Harris is Hillary 2.0. Anyway that's my take!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

If Kamala loses this one, she's done in politics! The idea that she could try in 2028 would be nonsensical, especially if DeSantis wins either modestly or big, means that such Democrats such as Cory Booker or Pete Buttigieg or even Gavin Newsom would want a shot. Castro would have to win the Texas Senate contest to be in with a shot!  But Harris could write a book about her abysmal Vice presidential career and explain to everyone how and why Joe Biden picked her! Help us solve the mystery. As for Trump, it's no longer his party.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

What is puzzling, is if DeSantis is polling so well in the WOW counties in Wisconsin, why is Wisconsin still outstanding! All of the so called "Blue wall" state's, are quiet as church mice, nothing so much as a peep! If either Georgia and North Carolina were to be called, I thought it would be North Carolina first, but considering the Governor's race there is a factor, then I can imagine that North Carolina probably won't be called until we have a winner in the Governor's contest, which means probably somewhere ìn the a.m. hour's

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I'm beginning to suspect that the reason why Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are not being called is that Harris is gonna win them in a squeaker, win the electoral vote, but lose the popular vote! She wins in a 270-268 vote, but has no mandate and DeSantis waits until 2028 for a rematch and Harris becomes a lame-duck,  a female version of Jimmy Carter if you will. Then Harris loses in a landslide in 2028. I could be wrong, but considering the fact that there has been virtually no movement on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that has to be an outcome being considered. DeSantis in "losing", becomes the leading contender for the GOP nomination in '28. This way, the writer's extend the storyline a bit longer.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Don't worry Harris will "find" those "fabled magic boxes" and win squeakers in both Wisconsin and possibly Michigan as well, all she needs to do is run the table and limp across the line to get that 270. I believe that the scenario I painted earlier will occur. Remember what Joe Biden said in his Oval office speech about wishing all the candidate's "good luck"? He literally meant it! DeSantis will literally need it, when it is Joe Biden and his "magic boxes", look at how everything is stalled as it was four years before! I bet there's a bit of malarkey going on! And mysteriously they will "find" millions of votes, all favoring Harris. She will get her turn and there will be a rematch in 2028 and she will lose in a landslide! Because she doesn't have the same "skill set" that old Joe has! She is John Quincy Adams to DeSantis's Andrew Jackson. That's my take.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

This is my prediction of the final map. Due to the better than expected performance in the popular vote by DeSantis, he wins a 5% margin. Its a complete reverse on 2016.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

As if this user would care if they were being ignored 😉just making sure that I submitted my ten cents! 😊😉

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

And?🙄

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

President Stanton,
If you look at the County-by-County Map SaintStan86 has provided during this Election Night you see that DeSantis has vastly outrun Trump from 2020 EVEN in those Counties that Harris won.

The Presidential Race will likely be called between 11pm and 1am ET in favour of DeSantis.
[/quote
Looked at the map showing the extent of DeSantis victory in the electoral college! I was kinda surprised to see that once again New Jersey stayed Democratic and particularly considering how well he had been doing in the state and taking into account of his ethnicity and also because he is a Roman Catholic.
] A County Map? Where? I would love to see it!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Should DeSantis prevail, as is likely the case, he's likely to carry not only Minnesota (the first Republican to do so since Nixon did so in 1972!), and carrying Virginia, the first since George W. Bush in 2004. The fact he's already carried New Hampshire the first Republican to do so since Bush in 2000. On the Senate side of the ledger, it appears that James, Jordan, McCormick, Oz and Vogel, there is a strong possibility that Republican's could get 60 seats or more, the first time that this would occur since the 1920s. DeSantis will be the first Republican since Bush to win the popular vote, something Trump couldn't do. DeSantis could have the following distinctions of being the first Republican since Nixon to carry the entire Midwest in '72, that is if Harris manages to lose Illinois; Pritzker didn't hold out much hope. Anyway Harris should she lose, would share the unhappy distinction of being the fourth Vice president since 1960 to fail in getting promoted to the top job. Nixon was the first, Humphrey in 1968, and Gore in 2000. Other stats regarding DeSantis who at 46 is he'll be the youngest president since Bill Clinton in '92, he will the third Catholic following Kennedy and Biden to win the presidency, the first Floridian and the first Italian American. As regards the transition, I thought that the party nominee's designated their Transition chief's after the Conventions. But picking either Sununu or Card would be inspired choices. Ron might consider placing Bolton at State, Robert O'Brien at the Pentagon and Jamie Dimon at Treasury.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

True! But I had the idea that under legislation passed that the party nominee's in question are required to designate their individual Transition Chief's shortly after the conventions. I recall that Trump selected Chris Christie to be his Transition chief in 2016 and that was way before the election. Jared Kushner instigated Christie's ouster and Mike Pence got the job instead. Where do I access the county map regarding DeSantis's performance in the election or has it been completed yet? Anyway would Rubio want to leave Senate? Cotton for Defense? Interesting selections. I'd say Andy Card would head up Transition as Sununu must be a tad old in the tooth, about 85 by the time of the 2024 election. I thought DeSantis might go with someone as WHCOS who is reasonably close to him. Is Byron Donald's close to DeSantis?

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

1988? I mean Minnesota has been called for DeSantis he's at 273! What's next? Michigan? Then he's at 288! Pennsylvania will very likely go to DeSantis if Minnesota did, which has him at 307! Arizona? If so that's another 11, he's then at 318! Nevada at 6, he goes to 324. I'm guessing that New Jersey might go his way, he's at 338! He takes Alaska he's at 341...then we see what happens in Colorado, New Mexico, Washington and Oregon with a total of 35 electoral votes, he's at 376. If Illinois goes for DeSantis, then it is that bad for Harris, her defeat is actually worse than Hillary's, not as bad as Dukakis but getting pretty close! I can imagine DeSantis margin over Harris in the popular vote will be close to Obama's in 2008. He'll have a veto proof Senate and a nice comfortable majority in the House. What's more Trump can look forward to getting his portrait hung in the White House, but very little else. DeSantis will try to put as much distance between himself and Trump without making it look that way, there's no way DeSantis will tolerate Trump trying to overshadow him. I can imagine that Nikki Haley, due to her experience at the United Nations will have a greater involvement in foreign policy, while Rubio if he gets State, will need to remember who's the senior partner in the DeSantis show. What would be cool, is if DeSantis puts Chris Christie at DOJ! That would be fun to watch. Wonder what Kamala will do! The political arena might be too painful for her, considering how badly she's losing! Bet she'll blame everyone but her own incompetence and lack of political awareness. As for old Joe, at least he can now say he was president and go back to his basement in Wilmington, Delaware; he might need to, knowing that a Republican in the guise of Ben DuPont has the Senate seat. It would be fun if DeSantis invites all his predecessor's to the White House and Trump turns up, telling everyone who wants to listen, that he was a brilliant president and a yuge success. Well enough of my musings.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

By my calculations that puts him at 420 electoral votes, nearly as much as the 426 that G.H.W. Bush won in 1988. We'll see If Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington State all break voting habits that has lasted over a quarter of a century! Plausible. I bet Kamala Harris is in a bad place right now. Democrats are likely going to into an extender period of soul searching and will need to exorcise their 'woke' addiction and send their progressives to the showers. Someone like Andy Beshear is someone they should seriously consider looking at.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

By my calculations that puts him at 420 electoral votes, nearly as much as the 426 that G.H.W. Bush won in 1988. We'll see If Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington State all break voting habits that has lasted over a quarter of a century! Plausible. I bet Kamala Harris is in a bad place right now. Democrats are likely going to into an extender period of soul searching and will need to exorcise their 'woke' addiction and send their progressives to the showers. Someone like Andy Beshear is someone they should seriously consider looking at.

Doesn't matter. The GOP Congress and majorities in state legislatures are going to abolish democracy and declare DeSantis President for life.

Talk about conspiracy theories!🙄 Funny how it worked out that if a Republican wins the White House it's the end of civilization as we know it! But if it's someone like Obama who wins, it's called the second coming. Except I'm amazed that we survived Obama! Why wasn't Democracy abolished then? Oh yeah I forgot, there's that thing called the Constitution which prevents stuff like abolition of Democracy!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

By my calculations that puts him at 420 electoral votes, nearly as much as the 426 that G.H.W. Bush won in 1988. We'll see If Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington State all break voting habits that has lasted over a quarter of a century! Plausible. I bet Kamala Harris is in a bad place right now. Democrats are likely going to into an extender period of soul searching and will need to exorcise their 'woke' addiction and send their progressives to the showers. Someone like Andy Beshear is someone they should seriously consider looking at.

I wonder if Washington State does Ticket Splitting with Harris winning the States 12 Electoral Votes and Cathy McMorris-Rogers takes the Senate Seat. She is a very strong Recruit.

Again, I think since this an R nut timeline, DeSantis is going to sweep everything remaining.

It seems that New YorkExpress is like one of those Democratic brats who can't handle the fact that a Republican in any TL real or this is sending his precious party to the toilets! I guess their 'woke' sensibilities are offended. Suck it up NewYorkExpress, enough of your "outrage". It seems any Democrat especially our friend NewYorkExpress can't handle how a Republican is cleaning the clock of any Democrat. Gonna have a meltdown all because your kool-aid doesn't make the grade here? Get over it pet and go and write your own TL where Democrats win everything from shining sea to shining sea and you can be in your happy place.
Personally I hope what is happening in this TL comes to pass and ruins your happy place, that would be so funny 😂😂 I guess you'd probably need a cup of hot chocolate, a blankie, some crayons and a coloring book! 🤭Anyway I hope you're enjoying this excellent topic. Before I forget I think Cathy McMorris-Rogers will likely pull it off. As for the Indiana Governorship, I think McDermott's victory will be a flip to the Democrats. I don't think Todd Rokita has endeared himself, especially over the abortion issue. That's why the race is so close. I can imagine that Robinson will win the N.C. Governorship, thus becoming the first African-American Republican to win a major state's Governorship. I think Oz's performance in New Jersey is closely tagged with DeSantis doing so well , especially in South part of the state, so if DeSantis manages to take New Jersey, then Oz gets the seat. I guess Fetterman of neighboring Pennsylvania will now have to live with Oz. I think Menendez is probably going down, but eighteen years dodging the electoral bullet was good even by Jersey standards. So let me see how many Senator's who have lost reelection, there's Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tim Kaine of Virginia and I guess Bob Menendez. That's four big names gone! Wow!

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

From my calculations Republican's are on track to win between 63 or 64 Senate seat's-that's a 12 or 13 seat gain in that chamber! This would be equal to what they gained in 1980. I'm not sure what the numbers in the House of Representatives are. With over 60 seat's in the Senate, a veto proof majority, DeSantis will have an easy time of it, should he get the opportunity to make Supreme court appointments, I can imagine that Clarence Thomas or John Roberts will call it quits within the next three or five year's. Imagine this Democrats won't or can't have any congressional hearings to embarras DeSantis as Steve Scalise in the House along John Cornyn or Mitch McConnell in the Senate won't permit any such activities. As for Trump, he will gradually recede into insignificance as the Republican party is now DeSantis's. As for Kamala Harris will now join a K Street lobbying or law firm. The political arena is off limits to her, especially in the immediate term. Perhaps a run for Governor of California in 2026 might be on the card's. But losing as badly as she has, has probably left a sour taste in her mouth. I expect that the races for Senate in Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia will be called next;  with John James, Michele Tafoya and Jill Vogel all winning those race's respectively.