2024 - A Blank Canvas
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 04, 2022, 10:55:52 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2024 - A Blank Canvas
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9
Author Topic: 2024 - A Blank Canvas  (Read 10053 times)
Utah Neolib
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,796
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: June 03, 2022, 07:28:25 PM »

Wow, Super Tuesday’s finally out of the way! Some part of me thought that another Republican besides DeSantis would end up prevailing, because it’s a “blank canvas”. But I love this TL and all the effort you’ve put into it, keep it up!
Logged
Da2017
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: June 08, 2022, 01:01:14 AM »

Fun to read. Interested to see how the general between Harris and Desantis will play out.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: June 08, 2022, 02:31:38 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2022, 06:35:33 AM by SaintStan86 »

UPDATE: With the results from primaries California and other states now in, here's what transpired last night IRL, and how this affects the trajectory in this TL:
  • San Francisco voters recalled Chesa Boudin from his post as District Attorney last night and Los Angeles may be set to do the same with George Gascon later this year. I'm all for criminal justice reform, but their approach wasn't the way to do it. The Democrats who scuttled Sen. Tim Scott's reforms in the Senate have to be feeling pretty dirty right now. There's still Larry Krasner and Alvin Bragg to poke around, but in this TL crime in major cities will remain a big factor as Republicans bring up 2019 crime rates for good measure.
  • We now know who Sen. Alex Padilla and Gov. Gavin Newsom will face in November - and their respective names are attorney Mark Meuser and State Sen. Brian Dahle. Expect the Democrats to win here in both cases, but it's fair to say these names are going to be brand names now, especially if they hold the Democrats to the levels George W. Bush had John Kerry at in 2004. Both Democrats (so far) are under 50 percent in the Inland Empire, the Central Valley and Orange County (as well as under 60 percent in the counties of Los Angeles and Sacramento), and Padilla is faring even worse - under 50 in San Diego, barely above 50 in Ventura, and under two-thirds in much of the Bay Area. If these numbers hold up in November (notwithstanding votes from Peace and Freedom type voters and other small-time Democrats who had no chance against their Goliath incumbent opposition), Republicans have a foundation to build on for the future provided that DTS voters go their way.
  • We also know now what the big matchups in California will be at the congressional level. In this TL, Kevin Kiley will have defeated Kermit Jones in the Lake Tahoe/Roseville-based 3rd, Tom Patti will have defeated Josh Harder in the Stockton-based 9th, Adam Gray will have narrowly defeated John Duarte in the Modesto-to-Fresno-based 13th, Kevin Mullin will have defeated David Canepa in the San Mateo-based 15th, David Valadao will have defeated Rudy Salas in the Bakersfield-to-Hanford-based 22nd, Matt Jacobs will have narrowly upset Julia Brownley in the Ventura-based 26th, Mike Garcia will have defeated Christy Smith in the Santa Clarita-based 27th, Jimmy Gomez will have narrowly defeated David Kim (again) in the mid-central Los Angeles-based 34th, Sydney Kamlager will have defeated Jan Perry in the west LA-to-Culver City-based 37th, Young Kim will have defeated Asif Mahmood in the Orange-to-Mission Viejo-based 40th, Ken Calvert will have defeated Will Rollins in the Corona-to-Palm Springs-based 41st, Michelle Steel will have defeated Jay Chen in the Garden Grove-to-Brea-based 45th, Katie Porter will have very narrowly defeated Scott Baugh in the Irvine-based 47th due to her huge fundraising advantage - which will now give Porter enough carte blanche to wage a progressive primary challenge to Sen. Dianne Feinstein before she declares her retirement in this TL, Brian Maryott will have narrowly defeated Mike Levin in the Laguna Niguel-to-Encinitas-based 49th, and Sara Jacobs will have defeated a late-surging Stan Caplan in the north San Diego-based 51st. Also, I have nailed it again on my predictions with Robert Garcia the heavy favorite in the Long Beach-based 42nd and Ted Lieu (Santa Monica-based 36th) and Maxine Waters (south central LA-based 43rd) now widely expected to once again defeat extremely well-funded GOP candidates Republicans are too eager to waste money on, when there are real battlegrounds in California and other places where chances are better.
  • New Jersey will have some big congressional races this fall. In this TL, Tom Kean, Jr. will be one of the early pickup calls for the night over Tom Malinowski and will become a leading Main Street Republican voice representing the Somerset-based 7th. Also in this TL, Andy Kim will have narrowly defeated Bob Healey in the Burlington-based 3rd and Josh Gottheimer will have narrowly defeated Frank Pallotta in the Paramus-to-Skylands-based 5th, but the huge PR and money advantages they had will wither as ex-punk rocker-turned-yacht maker Healey gears for a rematch, Gottheimer's money (and staffing troubles) catch up to him, and Donald Trump's absence on the ballot no longer scares suburban women. Lastly in this TL, with Chris Smith retiring his America First primary challenger, Mike Crispi will be back but not without a challenge from a Smith ally in the Jersey Shore (the region, NOT the low-brow TV show)-based 4th, while Mikie Sherrill will have narrowly defeated GOP challenger Paul DeGroot who will have the benefit of name recognition in a high-stakes GOP primary for the Parsippany-to-Montclair-based 11th as Sherrill challenges Bob Menendez for his U.S. Senate seat, but at least Rob Menendez will be locked into Congress from the Jersey City-based 8th unless his father's ethical cloud envelops him.
  • It looks like Mississippi will have two new Republican members of Congress. The hope that Chris McDaniel will defeat ethically challenged incumbent Steven Palazzo in the southern Mississippi-based 4th never materialized, but I will be very shocked if Mike Ezell loses to Palazzo three Tuesdays from today. The big story, however, is Michael Cassidy forcing Michael Guest into a runoff on an "America First" platform. I'm now going to say Cassidy edges out Guest in the real contest for this seat.
  • Dave McCormick now has a Chairman for his fan club in the Western United States. And his name is Al Olszewski who appears to be closing the gap with former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke for the western Montana-based 1st District that looks like Trump's face, but may not get there. Either way, the GOP victor is favored to defeat IRL and will have defeated attorney and former Olympic rower Monica Tranel (The current at-large incumbent, Republican Matt Rosendale, is skating to a second term from the resurrected, mountain lion-silhouetted 2nd District in eastern Montana as he batters up for a U.S. Senate rematch with Jon Tester in this TL).
  • Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham was one of the toughest on COVID - so tough that New Mexico's two NCAA basketball programs had to play their games in Texas during 2020-2021, which put her clearly in the same camp as Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer and New York's Kathy Hochul. Nevertheless, COVIDpalooza has come and gone but Mark Ronchetti will give her the fight of her life. Unlike Whitmer though, Lujan Grisham will have an easier go of it narrowly defeating Ronchetti, but as stated already Ronchetti in this TL will be challenging Sen. Martin Heinrich under a scenario not unlike another rising GOP star who happens to come from Whitmer's home state (hint: his first and last name are both books in the New Testament of the Bible).
  • At the congressional level in New Mexico in this TL in 2022, Democrat Melanie Stansbury will have narrowly defeated Michelle Garcia Holmes in a surprisingly close race for the Albuquerque-based 1st, Yvette Herrell will have dispatched Gabe Vasquez in the Las Cruces-based 2nd, and Teresa Leger Fernandez will have defeated Alexis Martinez Johnson in the Santa Fe-based 3rd that stretches from Farmington to Roswell. But none of them are locked in for victory in 2024, and this is especially true with the two Democrats as Biden's lame duck status and Harris's lukewarm reception from fellow Dems could prove costly.
  • Iowa will be an easy win for Republicans in November with Gov. Kim Reynolds defeating Deidre DeJear and Sen. Chuck Grassley defeating retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, who appears to be the right candidate in the wrong race at the wrong time (As always, we should all thank Mike Franken for his service, but who amongst right-leaning independents doesn't like Chuck Grassley? Especially in a year that's not favorable to the Donkey Brigade...). And State Sen. Zach Nunn is still on track to narrowly defeat Cindy Axne in the 3rd District, based in Des Moines, which will have happened in this TL.
  • Lastly, you got to hand it to culture war perfectionists in South Dakota..."OMG John Thune voted to certify Biden, do something Trump!!!"..."OMG Kristi Noem won't protect women's college sports...she's NOT my Governor!!!"..."OMG Dusty Johnson won't build Trump's wall...he's a sellout!!!". The incumbents won big anyway, and only Johnson fell (barely) below 60 percent while still winning by a double-digit margin.

Next up: Puerto Rico, Wisconsin, Alaska, Wyoming, Rhode Island and Connecticut...plus some assorted congressional campaign news.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: June 12, 2022, 01:03:08 PM »

Editor's note: In this TL, Puerto Rico is still a territory and has not yet become a state, though there are very active efforts to achieve statehood for the island underway. With regards to the Republican side of the ledger, politicians on the right are advocating for statehood - despite the large Democratic advantage within the territory - on the basis of Puerto Rico's Catholic population possibly being particularly influential to social and cultural conservatives. To no great surprise, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio are amongst the most popular stateside Republicans. Of course, Democrats appear to be the favored party on the island, but the recent headwinds against them amongst Hispanics will be widely talked about in Democratic circles in this TL, especially with regards to the rising progressive wing of the party that is less Jack Kennedy and more Bernie Sanders (though AOC, who is herself of Puerto Rican descent, will attempt to dispel this trend by arguing that more moderate Dems actually hurt the party).

Additionally, in advance of two potentially significant races occurring in IRL whose coverage has been given a "wide stance" (and not in a bad Larry Craig sort of stance) in this TL, I am prepared to make some minor changes should the winners of Tuesday's primaries be other than Adam Laxalt and Nancy Mace. Laxalt has a sizable advantage in his primary for the U.S. Senate in Nevada, but Sam Brown's late rise is concerning enough that Donald Trump (who has endorsed Laxalt) has been pulling out the stops to help Laxalt over the finish line on Tuesday.

If Brown upsets Laxalt, this will not affect the TL besides the names being substituted, though IMHO it is only fair that Laxalt is the GOP nominee and defeats Catherine Cortez Masto, given Laxalt's closeness to DeSantis as well as the fact that this was the Senate seat of his grandfather Paul Laxalt - who was Ronald Reagan's "first friend", and I can guarantee you there are more of us in Atlasia who view DeSantis as following Trump the way Reagan followed Nixon than one can assume. All matters aside, in this TL the loser of Tuesday's runoff becomes the frontrunner for the GOP nomination against Jacky Rosen, similar to how Dave McCormick is being viewed as a frontrunner for the GOP nomination against Bob Casey in 2024 following his razor-thin defeat by Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and subsequent pledges to unite Republicans there behind Oz after a contentious result and recount, though Laxalt would be far less inclined to run if he were to lose in a shocking upset to Brown. To that extent, I have been and am rooting for Laxalt to win on Tuesday, send Cortez Masto packing in November, and become a rising star in the Senate GOP conference.

Mace, though, is in a dicier situation. Though Mace had a far more conservative voting record than Katie Arrington when they both served in the South Carolina House of Representatives and has developed a decent conservative voting record in Congress, Arrington's endorsement by Trump (and Mace's respondent narcissistic travail to Trump Tower) has thrown this race into disarray, though as a former Trump administration official herself, Arrington has built some federal experience after becoming the first Republican in decades to blow the Lowcountry-based 1st District in 2018, losing to Joe Cunningham in a close race during a bad year for Republicans. This has also turned into a proxy war pitting Nikki Haley against Trump, and Mace has largely distinguished herself as more of a Haley-type Republican in her first term with a libertarian streak more favored by younger Republicans who view the War on Drugs with great suspicion, for instance, though Mace's voted to fund foreign arms in Ukraine does give me and others pause. All things aside, I would have cast a vote for Mace if I were a SC-01 constituent, but if Arrington wins I'm alright with it but probably not as enthusiastic. The only change with regards to South Carolina is that Arrington is going to be left off the Haley stories since she would probably be more inclined to endorse DeSantis or Trump over Haley.

There is one outcome that is still certain in this TL: there will be a runoff in the Myrtle Beach/Florence-based 7th and Tom Rice is going to finish a distant second to Russell Fry on Tuesday, and will be all but certain to lose his runoff. At least the only crime Mace committed besides what I just discussed was a more banal vote to hold Steve Bannon in contempt, as opposed to the widely publicized vote Rice took against Trump over J6.


It's Sunday, March 24th. The Spring equinox has already sprung. Christians are celebrating Palm Sunday. March Madness is in full swing. And on a balmy afternoon in Puerto Rico, Republicans are gathering for their primary...

PUERTO RICO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

In Puerto Rico's open territorial primary, 23 delegates will be awarded to either the absolute majority winner or candidates receiving at least 20 percent of the vote, with the delegates in the latter case to be awarded proportionally.

Territorywide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 61.13 percent (23 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 9.27 percent
Candace Owens - 1.12 percent
(Remaining 28.48 percent went to other candidates, including 12.16 for Marco Rubio, 11.18 for Nikki Haley and 3.56 percent for Mike Pence)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1086 delegates +23 from Puerto Rico
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 17 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

While Rubio continues to get sizable support out of Puerto Rico, only DeSantis clears the 20 percent threshold required to earn delegates from the island. By default, DeSantis wins all of the territory's 23 delegates.

March 26, 2024
DeSANTIS EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR PUERTO RICAN STATEHOOD: "THE FUTURE IS RED"
On Tuesday, during an interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Florida Gov. and unofficially presumptive Republican nominee Ron DeSantis expressed support for Puerto Rican statehood after years of debate over whether or not admitting the island nation as the 51st state in the Union is a "righteous move", despite concerns from Ingraham over the island's strong preference for Democrats. In the interview, DeSantis cited "the commonalities with which many of their people have with Florida and the rest of the country in regards to values, patriotism and hard work". He also insisted that his support for Puerto Rican statehood has nothing to do with his win on Sunday afternoon on the island, where he won well over 60 percent of the vote. "The people who helped put me in office in 2018 and again in 2022 are the same Puerto Rican expatriates and their family members who came to Florida in search of opportunities that their woke and incompetent leaders, especially the failed Mayor of San Juan who spent more time attacking Donald Trump than helping them recover from Hurricane Maria back in 2017", DeSantis said referring to former San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, who was Mayor at the time of the disaster and made headlines criticizing Trump and his handling of federal disaster relief.

The move did not particularly sit well with Democrats and others who criticized DeSantis for "attempting to play politics with the tragedy Puerto Ricans faced nearly seven years ago", and especially drew ire from former Republican strategist Ana Navarro during the following Wednesday's taping of The View. "Whether it's attacking Dr. Fauci, attacking Disney (which coincidentally owns the network The View broadcasts on, ABC), or now attacking a former Mayor of San Juan because she blasted Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis is a painful, pus-filled boil on the behinds of Floridians", said Navarro who also pointed to DeSantis's votes in favor of relief for Maria (versus votes against similar relief for other hurricanes not directly affecting Florida such as Superstorm Sandy, which affected the New York metropolitan area late in the 2012 campaign cycle when DeSantis was then a candidate for Congress). In response, DeSantis fired back during a Republican breakfast in Indianapolis on Wednesday, "Name one Republican client who owes their electoral success to Ana Navarro", to a mixture of applause and chuckles.

March 29, 2024
HARRIS RALLIES DEMOCRATS IN PUERTO RICO: "UNITY IS THE KEY"
In San Juan on Friday, Vice President and likely presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris held a rally with Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi and other Democrats on the island territory. "Puerto Rico represents the future of this country. The strength and resolve that you have shown in the face of so much economic and mental strife, is strength that is the most we expect out of Americans doing extraordinary things", said Harris to a large crowd at a local soccer stadium there. "As your President, there is only one direction we will be going in, and that direction is forward," Harris continued while also expressing gratitude to supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, whom she urged to "unite to help defeat Ron DeSantis and the dark money Republican machine that wants to take us back to 2017", and brought up memories of Hurricane Maria and its aftermath that became cannon fodder for controversy in the Trump administration.

DeSantis spox Christina Pushaw pushed back against Harris, "As Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis was regularly in touch with Puerto Ricans and their extended families, including many Floridians with ties to Puerto Rico, and will be a President for all Americans whether in states, territories, military bases or even as expatriates overseas - without the identity politics, the arrogance and with regards to one particular person the cackling they have witnessed under this current administration", taking a swipe at Harris's known penchant to show levity at times during press conferences and other informal moments during her vice presidency. While Republicans have already held their primary, which DeSantis won convincingly on Sunday, Democrats will be holding theirs this coming Sunday, coinciding with a local primary for various elected offices across the island territory. 51 pledged delegates, including 33 from its eight senatorial districts, will be allocated to qualifying candidates, though it is widely expected only Harris will qualify for delegates as the last Democrat standing.

It is now Sunday afternoon, the end of March, in Puerto Rico. Democrats, who like Republicans do not have official partisan voter registration, are casting their presidential preferences and votes for other offices on a sunny Sunday afternoon on the island.

PUERTO RICO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

51 pledged delegates will be awarded to qualifying Democrats in today's primary - the first since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 56.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 43.37 percent went to other candidates, including 21.22 for Elizabeth Warren and 12.40 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
Senate District 1/San Juan (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Senate District 2/Bayamón (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Senate District 3/Arecibo (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
Senate District 4/Mayagüez (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Senate District 5/Ponce (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
Senate District 6/Guayama (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Senate District 7/Humacao (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
Senate District 8/Carolina (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
At-Large Delegates (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 11

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1786 delegates +44 from Puerto Rico
Elizabeth Warren - 762 delegates +6 from Puerto Rico
Pete Buttigieg - 485 delegates +1 from Puerto Rico
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Unsurprisingly, Harris sweeps much of the island as the only candidate to win a majority of the votes in every senatorial district across Puerto Rico. Even though Warren wins over 20 percent of the vote despite ending her campaign 12 days prior, casting some doubt into whether or not Harris can unite Democratic voters before the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Warren no longer qualifies for at-large delegates due to her having suspended her campaign. Warren though does manage to win six delegates - one in each of six of Puerto Rico's eight senatorial districts, with Buttigieg even winning one delegate in the Ponce-based 5th Senate District and Harris sweeping the 7th Senate District, based in Humacao.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: June 13, 2022, 05:31:12 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2022, 06:30:02 AM by SaintStan86 »

After a week's divide between primaries in Puerto Rico, the two parties are back on schedule in Wisconsin for the following Tuesday's presidential primary...but outside of Texas, no concurrent congressional primaries - yet...

WISCONSIN
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Tuesday's Democratic primary will award 75 delegates to qualifying candidates, including 49 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 56.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 43.38 percent went to other candidates, including 21.46 for Elizabeth Warren and 17.38 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Racine, Janesville & Kenosha (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Madison, Baraboo & Dodgeville (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD3/La Crosse, Eau Claire & Stevens Point (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Milwaukee (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Waukesha, West Bend & Greenfield (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Sheboygan, Oshkosh & Mequon (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Wausau, Superior & Hudson (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Green Bay, Appleton & Marinette (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (10 delegates):
Kamala Harris 10
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates):
Kamala Harris 16

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1844 delegates +58 from Wisconsin
Elizabeth Warren - 774 delegates +12 from Wisconsin
Pete Buttigieg - 490 delegates +5 from Wisconsin
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Despite having become the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris will have to wait at least another week before officially claiming enough delegates to earn that designation. Despite winning all of the state's at-large delegates by default, Harris only won two-thirds of the state's congressional delegates - 32 out of 49, with the remaining congressional delegates split between 12 for Warren (including a staggering four in the heavily progressive, Madison-based 2nd District) and five for Buttigieg.

WISCONSIN
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Wisconsin Republicans will award 42 delegates, including 24 congressional delegates, to qualifying candidates. The winners in each congressional district and statewide will receive all delegates either within each district or based on the statewide results.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 64.24 percent
Ben Sasse - 10.18 percent
Candace Owens - 2.39 percent
(Remaining 23.19 percent went to other candidates, including 12.49 percent for Mike Pence and 8.15 for Nikki Haley)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Racine, Janesville & Kenosha (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Madison, Baraboo & Dodgeville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/La Crosse, Eau Claire & Stevens Point (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Milwaukee (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD5/Waukesha, West Bend & Greenfield (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD6/Sheboygan, Oshkosh & Mequon (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD7/Wausau, Superior & Hudson (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD8/Green Bay, Appleton & Marinette (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
Statewide, at-large (18 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 18

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1128 delegates +42 from Wisconsin
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 17 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Almost officially being the presumptive Republican nominee proves advantageous for DeSantis, who goes on to win every congressional and statewide delegate in Wisconsin. DeSantis's strongest performance statewide is in the suburban Milwaukee WOW counties, where DeSantis wins well over 65 percent of the vote, though DeSantis performs just as well in the northeast Wisconsin areas that comprise the 6th and 8th congressional districts, with the former also comprising suburban Milwaukee's Ozaukee County - the "O" in the WOW counties. Sasse hoped to make an opening with voters looking to influence the election from the Trump-skeptic side, but while he does manage to outperform Haley, he still finishes with just over 10 percent behind former Vice President Pence, who performs most strongly in rural northern and western Wisconsin but like Sasse still finished well behind DeSantis across the state.

April 4, 2024
PENCE RULES OUT VICE PRESIDENTIAL RETURN WITH DeSANTIS: "I WISH HIM THE BEST"
On Thursday, former Vice President Mike Pence ruled out a bid to serve as Vice President under Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is now all but set to be the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. In his announcement to his followers on Facebook and Twitter, Pence thanked the "many Hoosiers and Americans who entrusted me to guide this country in the right direction as we look forward to electing our 47th President - who I hope will be Gov. Ron DeSantis, and who I know will pick a solid choice to be his running mate. To that extent, I wish him the best". Social media was filled with tributes to Pence and his over two decades of public service, as well as his earlier career in conservative talk radio across Indiana prior to his first congressional run in 2000. Pence finished third amongst Republican candidates in this primary, behind DeSantis and former Ambassador Nikki Haley who remains a likely contender to be DeSantis's running mate.

In addition to Haley, other contenders for Vice President include current U.S. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas, Joni Ernst of Iowa and Josh Hawley of Missouri, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. However, none of these Republicans have expressed public support for serving as DeSantis's running mate on a presidential ticket, as they are more focused on current political matters, focusing on their reelection efforts and/or (especially with regards to those who previously ran for President) recouping from the rigors of presidential campaigning. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has ruled out any possibility of running for Vice President alongside DeSantis, "I am perfectly satisfied with my current job as Governor of the great state of Texas, and I am comfortable with the legacy I am leaving behind here in Austin. This is Ron DeSantis's golden moment, and I'm looking forward to working with President DeSantis and his Vice President to ensure that Texas is at the forefront of our nation's future". Abbott has also not indicated whether or not he will seek reelection, though all indicators point to Abbott (who will be 69 in 2026) likely not seeking reelection to a fourth term as Governor in 2026, setting off a very expensive open seat where Democrats will attempt to win the Governor's Mansion for the first time in 36 years.

It's the first weekend of April. While Muslims are close to observing the end of Ramadan in the coming days, Jews wait for Passover to concur and the Final Four is underway for the men in Arizona and for the women in Cleveland, Wyoming and Alaska are holding their closed presidential caucuses...

WYOMING
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

A total of 12 pledged delegates will be awarded in tonight's closed Democratic caucuses.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 58.95 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)

(Remaining 41.05 percent went to other candidates, including 20.01 for Elizabeth Warren and 13.41 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large CD/Casper, Cheyenne & Sheridan (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1854 delegates +10 from Wyoming
Elizabeth Warren - 776 delegates +2 from Wyoming
Pete Buttigieg - 490 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

To no great surprise, Harris wins all but two delegates in the state, as Warren managed to herself win the other two due to the manner in which pledged delegate allocations are structured at the congressional and statewide levels; the rules that deny the awarding of statewide pledged delegates to candidates no longer actively running do not apply at the congressional level. However, Warren has already encouraged her supporters to get behind Harris, though it is very likely that Warren delegates are expected to push the direction of the Democratic Party further to the left during rule and policy fights at the Democratic National Convention.

WYOMING
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Wyoming Republicans will award 12 of its 29 delegates tonight in unique county delegate-districts, with all electing either a delegate or alternate except for Laramie (the largest, home to the state capital of Cheyenne) which will elect both a delegate and an alternate. The remaining 17 delegates will be chosen at Wyoming's state GOP convention on April 20th, with the three party leaders attending as unpledged delegates.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 67.75 percent
Ben Sasse - 12.91 percent
Candace Owens - 4.15 percent
(Remaining 15.19 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
(first county sends a delegate, second county sends an alternate)
Ron DeSantis wins all 12 delegates (1 each) in the following delegations: Albany/Natrona, Sweetwater/Carbon, Uinta/Lincoln, Teton/Sublette, Fremont/Park, Hot Springs/Washakie, Sheridan/Big Horn, Campbell/Johnson, Crook/Weston, Converse/Niobrara, Goshen/Platte, and Laramie.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1140 delegates +12 from Wyoming
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 47 delegates[/s]
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 17 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis romped across the state, winning every county and therefore winning every single delegate-district by wide margins. Only Sasse has won more than 10 percent besides DeSantis for his zombie presidential campaign.

ALASKA
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Saturday's closed Democratic caucus will award 14 pledged delegates, including nine congressional delegates whose status is nominal as Alaska only has one congressional seat despite having the largest landmass in the Union.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 65.18 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 34.82 percent went to other candidates, including 18.17 for Elizabeth Warren and 10.85 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large CD/Anchorage, Fairbanks & Juneau (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1866 delegates +12 from Alaska
Elizabeth Warren - 778 delegates +2 from Alaska
Pete Buttigieg - 490 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

As expected, Harris dominated Alaska's Democratic caucuses, winning all but two delegates as Warren managed to snag two congressional delegates herself for reasons similar to the aforementioned ones in Wyoming. As with Wyoming though, the Warren delegates are expected to push for a more progressive Democratic Party platform at the Democratic National Convention.

ALASKA
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Alaska's closed Republican caucuses will also award delegates tonight, with 28 delegates effectively allocated statewide; at least 13 percent of the statewide vote must be won in order for a candidate to earn a delegate to the Republican National Convention.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 62.95 percent (23 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 13.03 percent (5 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.14 percent
(Remaining 20.88 percent went to other candidates, including 11.11 percent for Nikki Haley and 5.81 for Mike Pence)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1163 delegates +23 from Alaska
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 47 delegates +5 from Alaska
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 17 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis dominated Alaska's caucuses with nearly 63 percent of the vote and endorsements from many elected Alaska Republicans including Gov. Mike Dunleavy and Sen. Kelly Tshibaka. However, Sasse performs well enough that he managed to barely cross the 13 percent threshold, enough to win five statewide delegates, while Haley finished in third with over 11 percent and failed to qualify for delegates. In response to the surprising results, DeSantis begins to increasingly stress the importance of "an America without debt" and "educational opportunity for every American from college to trade school" - aiming to undercut Sasse on two of his key selling points out of his moribund presidential campaign.

In the news, both on the campaign trail and outside of it...
  • The Biden administration reports the latest on inflation and gas prices, noting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has reached its lowest level in two years, with inflation returning to "more normal levels" around 7 percent and gas prices now averaging around $3.50 a gallon. President Biden touted the efforts as signs that "we are making progress towards stabilizing the budgets of American families", but Republicans conveniently responded by pointing out that the average gas price is still not much higher than early 2022, when gas prices hovered around a similar price level, for instance. "It is unconscionable for the Biden administration to insist that things are much improved when the reality is the economic headwinds are still too daunting for working families", noted House Majority Leader and presumptive House Speaker Steve Scalise of Louisiana in response to Biden's comments.
  • In its latest ruling on the ongoing affirmative action debate with regards to college admissions, the Supreme Court struck down equity initiatives in college admissions as unconstitutional, arguing that UCLA, the University of Florida, Yale and other academic institutions intentionally discriminated against Asian and White students in freshmen admissions applications in a 6-3 decision with Justice Neil Gorsuch writing the majority opinion. As expected, the Biden administration denounced the ruling as "yet another example of how Donald Trump and conservatives have undermined the American promise for many, especially people of color", while Republicans called on state legislatures to pass resolutions guaranteeing equal opportunity with regards to classroom resources across public, private and charter schools regardless of ethnic or religious background, as well as incentivizing states to implement school choice legislation at the state level.
  • In Pennsylvania, where the first major congressional primaries (which remained at its original date despite the state legislature bumping up the presidential primaries to last March) are set to commence, polls for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate against vulnerable three-term incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. show a close battle between 2022 candidate and wealthy financier Dave McCormick, U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser and former U.S. Rep. and 2018 GOP nominee Lou Barletta. While McCormick generally leads in his home base in western Pennsylvania around Pittsburgh as well as the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs, Meuser and Barletta account for over half of the primary polling, with one of the two usually either trailing or leading McCormick by a slight margin. A number of competitive congressional races are also on deck throughout the state, setting up Pennsylvania to be a major battleground at all levels in November.
  • A recent poll in California shows a close race for Senate between GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Trump administration alum Ric Grenell, along with a very divided Democratic field including progressive U.S. Reps. Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Jared Huffman, more establishment-oriented U.S. Reps. Raul Ruiz and Adam Schiff, and former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante along with several other lower-profile Democrats. With the GOP field almost entirely consisting of McCarthy and Grenell who combine for 35 percent of the poll with over 20 percent undecided, Democrats have expressed concerns about the party potentially being shut out of the state's "top two" nonpartisan primary.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: June 14, 2022, 05:07:12 AM »

Fast forward to Tuesday, April 23rd. A critical GOP primary in Pennsylvania will determine the party's nominee against vulnerable three-term Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., and several congressional primaries will be decided tonight as well that will shape the direction of what is expected to be one of the most hotly contested states in November. But first, can Kamala Harris finally reach the official threshold of pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination in Gina Raimondo's stomping grounds...

RHODE ISLAND
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

21 pledged delegates will be awarded tonight to qualifying candidates, including 13 from Rhode Island's two congressional districts - one of which was nearly sacrificed but survived to the surprise of many.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 67.46 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 32.53 percent went to other candidates, including 18.99 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/East Providence, Newport & Woonsocket (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/West Providence, Warwick & Narragansett (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1884 delegates +18 from Rhode Island
Elizabeth Warren - 781 delegates +3 from Rhode Island
Pete Buttigieg - 490 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While Harris dominated Rhode Island as the last Democrat standing, Warren still managed to win three delegates at the congressional level - leaving Harris one delegate short of clinching the nomination at the magic number.

RHODE ISLAND
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Rhode Island Republicans will be awarding 20 delegates to qualifying candidates. An absolute majority winner will be entitled to all delegates; otherwise, qualifying candidates with at least 20 percent of the statewide vote will be proportionally allocated delegates between themselves.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 64.01 percent (20 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 15.96 percent
Candace Owens - 2.95 percent
(Remaining 17.08 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1197 delegates +20 from Rhode Island
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 47 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis won all 20 of Rhode Island's delegates by default, with Sasse being the only other Republican to win over 10 percent of the vote.

April 23, 2024
McCORMICK WILL FACE CASEY IN NOVEMBER AS PENNSYLVANIA RACES ARE SET
On Tuesday night, businessman and former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, two years removed from a very close defeat to celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022 for the Senate seat eventually won by Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Declaring victory at a watch party in Pittsburgh, McCormick declared "The ball is now in our court. It is now time for Pennsylvanians to get the ball moving and help grow the Republican majority this November, and we're not going to do it without you!" McCormick won 34 percent of the vote by racking up strong support in his Western Pennsylvania home base, where he dominated much of the Pittsburgh suburbs with over 35 to 45 percent of the vote, as well as narrowly sweeping the four suburban collar counties outside of Philadelphia with just under 35 percent.

Two other candidates, incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser and former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, trailed with 29 percent and 25 percent, respectively, despite aggressive efforts to target conservatives and Trump-style populists with defensive attack ads portraying McCormick as "out of touch with the realities of working Pennsylvanians" (Meuser's words) and "more establishment than a snake oil salesman" (Barletta's words). However, McCormick's aforementioned strong support in Western Pennsylvania won the night, helping to overcome a splintered conservative front for Meuser and Barletta in the "T" outside of metropolitan Philadelphia and Pittsburgh - where McCormick largely trailed with 25-30 percent in most counties. McCormick will now face three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the nation.

McCormick's race wasn't the only one decided on Tuesday in Pennsylvania. Democrats also nominated candidates to take on three Republican incumbents in the southeastern part of the state outside Philadelphia including two freshmen. In the Chester County-based 6th District that stretches to Reading, first-term Republican Guy Ciarrocchi will face Democratic State Rep. Melissa Shusterman, while another freshman, Lisa Scheller, will enter a rematch with the woman she defeated in 2022, former U.S. Rep. Susan Wild, in the Lehigh Valley-based 7th District. Meanwhile, leading moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick will face Bucks County Treasurer Kris Ballerini in the Bucks County-based 1st District, and hopes to be joined in the moderate ranks by State Rep. Todd Stephens, who is running against incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean in the Montgomery County-based 4th District that stretches from Bala Cynwyd and Abington all the way out to a largely exurban chunk of Berks County that sits east of Reading. In Northeast Pennsylvania, freshman Republican Jim Bognet will enter a rematch with his defeated predecessor Matt Cartwright in the 8th District connecting Wilkes-Barre and Scranton to exurban New York City's Pike County, while former U.S. Rep. Fred Keller is all but set to return to Congress after a two-year absence, having won the GOP nod in the open, heavily Republican Williamsburg-to-Lebanon-based 9th District being vacated by Meuser.

On the western end of the Pennsylvania Turnpike in western Pennsylvania, Erie-based State Sen. Dan Laughlin emerged out of a crowded GOP field to win his party's nomination over two higher-profile candidates from areas closer to Pittsburgh and will now face former Erie County Executive Kathy Dahlkemper for the 16th District being vacated by retiring Rep. Mike Kelly (who defeated then-U.S. Rep. Dahlkemper in 2010), while first-term Republican Rep. Jeremy Shaffer will face Pittsburgh-based attorney Steve Irwin (who lost to progressive freshman Rep. Summer Lee in the Democratic primary for the 12th District in 2022) in the north suburban Pittsburgh-based 17th District. Lastly, in the 15th District in the heart of central Pennsylvania (centered on State College, home to the main campus of Penn State), former State Sen. and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Jake Corman, known for his efforts to pursue voter fraud in the wake of the 2020 presidential election, emerged out of a massive Republican field to earn his party's nod to replace retiring Rep. Glenn Thompson.

One week later, Connecticut is holding its own presidential primaries...

CONNECTICUT
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Connecticut's closed Republican primary will allocate 29 delegates to qualifying candidates, including 15 congressional delegates that will be allocated to the top vote-getter in each of the state's five congressional districts, and 14 others that will be pledged to either an absolute majority winner or to candidates receiving between 20 and 50 percent of the statewide vote.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 62.25 percent
Ben Sasse - 13.19 percent
Candace Owens - 5.15 percent
(Remaining 19.41 percent went to other candidates, including 10.11 for Nikki Haley)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Hartford, Bristol & Colebrook (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/New London, Norwich & Storrs (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/New Haven, Naugatuck & Middlefield (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Bridgeport, Stamford & Oxford (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD5/Danbury, New Britain & Torrington (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
Statewide, at-large (14 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 14

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1226 delegates +29 from Connecticut
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 47 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis's status as the presumptive Republican nominee was only made even more apparent as he continued to rack up delegates bound to his candidacy - taking his total to 1,226 bound delegates to the Republican National Convention in Nashville.

CONNECTICUT
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

48 pledged delegates will be awarded in tonight's Democratic presidential primary, with 31 of those delegates coming from Connecticut's five congressional districts.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 65.25 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 34.75 percent went to other candidates, including 15.95 for Elizabeth Warren and 12.19 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Hartford, Bristol & Colebrook (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/New London, Norwich & Storrs (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD3/New Haven, Naugatuck & Middlefield (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD4/Bridgeport, Stamford & Oxford (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
CD5/Danbury, New Britain & Torrington (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
At-Large Delegates (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 11

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1927 delegates +43 from Connecticut
Elizabeth Warren - 785 delegates +4 from Connecticut
Pete Buttigieg - 491 delegates +1 from Connecticut
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While former candidates Warren managed to win four delegates of their own in districts based in Hartford and New Haven and even Buttigieg managed to win one in the eastern-based 2nd District, the night belonged to Harris whose 43 amassed delegates made her status a formality: she is now officially the presumptive Democratic nominee for President, only the second woman to achieve such a feat for a major political party.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY
PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE



Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Lawrence Jackson

Kamala Harris, California
Vice President of the United States
Former U.S. Senator
Former California Attorney General
Former District Attorney of San Francisco

April 30, 2024
VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS CLINCHES DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL BID
Tuesday night's presidential primaries in Connecticut proved to be a formality as Vice President Kamala Harris officially clinched the halfway mark for pledged Democratic delegates - 1,885 - with her winning of 43 pledged delegates and over 65 percent of the vote doing just that. While the result was not unanimous - Sen. Elizabeth Warren won four delegates and former Sec. Pete Buttigieg won one despite their campaigns having ended last month, the results only meant that Harris will become the first African American woman (and second overall after former President Barack Obama in 2008), first Asian American, and second woman (after fellow Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016) to ever clinch the presidential nomination for a major political party. Republicans also held their presidential primary on Tuesday night, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis winning over 62 percent versus over 13 percent for the zombie campaign of Sen. Ben Sasse and just over 10 percent for recently dropped out former Ambassador Nikki Haley; DeSantis, who was headlining a Republican gala in suburban Columbus, Ohio that evening (where congressional and legislative primaries are set to commence next week in Ohio as well as Illinois and Indiana - the latter home to an open gubernatorial seat), won all 29 of Connecticut's GOP delegates both at the statewide and congressional levels.

Harris celebrated the news at a rally near Newtown on Tuesday night for U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy, just miles from the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School that made Murphy into a leading advocate for gun control and gun violence prevention. "Tonight is more than just the celebration of another presidential primary win...I am also proud to announce that I am now officially the presumptive Democratic nominee to become the 47th President of the United States, and in November we are going to make history!", Harris exclaimed to a jubilant audience in Newtown where she donned a symbolic green pantsuit similar in shade to the colors on the logo of the Sandy Hook Promise organization founded in the wake of that tragedy. Sen. Murphy later took to the stage, where he remarked "We certainly make a great team together, and this November Kamala and I are going to do great things to further transform our great nation, ever the more stronger"; Murphy later denied that his comments on stage in Newtown amounted to further speculation of serving as Harris's running mate. "My first commitment is to the U.S. Senate and not to any sort of future presidential or vice presidential aspirations", said Murphy during an interview with CNN the following Wednesday morning.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: June 14, 2022, 06:12:42 AM »

Harris really should beg Michelle Obama to be her running mate. It might be the only way she wins in November.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: June 19, 2022, 09:27:28 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2022, 09:31:47 AM by SaintStan86 »

UPDATE: Things went according to plan on Tuesday in South Carolina as Gov. Henry McMaster will face former U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham, while Sen. Tim Scott will now have an easy reelection against the winner of a Democratic runoff between Catherine Fleming Bruce and Krystle Matthews. Expect the Republicans here to be victorious. Meanwhile, at the congressional level freshman Nancy Mace defeated challenger Katie Arrington for the GOP nod in the Charleston-based 1st District, while Russell Fry not only just about doubled incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Rice's vote totals in the Myrtle Beach-based 7th District, but knocked him out cold without a runoff. The moral of the story is that there is no problem with being skeptical of Donald Trump (who endorsed the challengers over the incumbents for the crime of crossing him sideways on certain matters). The difference is that it pays to have a decent conservative voting record with the worst thing you can do being a contempt vote against a Trump ally like Steve Bannon (Mace), whereas impeaching the former President, and then defending your vote with days to go before the polls close is not (Rice). The big surprise, however, is that both races were called before that of the GOP primary for the 4th District based in Greenville, where incumbent William Timmons barely avoided a runoff against a favorite pastor of Trump's (Black Republican Mark Burns) who would have possibly had the former President's backing had Timmons not voted against certifying the results. All of the GOP nominees will certainly have been reelected in this TL.

Meanwhile, things went according to plan Nevada where the GOP got their ideal candidates in Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo taking on incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt facing incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. In this TL, the Republicans will have prevailed despite aggressive campaigning on the Democrats' part with both having become key allies of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis throughout the campaign trail. Veteran Sam Brown, who put up a tough fight against Laxalt in the closing weeks, now has name recognition from having run against Laxalt, and in this TL I am now listing him as one of the leading Republicans to take on the state's other U.S. Senator, Jacky Rosen. Along with incumbent Rep. Mark Amodei in the Reno-based 2nd District, I have also nailed it on the GOP congressional nominees save for the 4th District in the Las Vegas Valley - Mark Robertson versus Dina Titus in the 1st, April Becker versus Susie Lee in the 3rd, and Sam Peters against Steven Horsford in the 4th. Republicans will have swept the whole state in this TL, though it is widely expected that all of the Las Vegas seats will be contested by the DCCC.

Maine was easy to predict, as Paul LePage will look to get his old job back against incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, while Bruce Poliquin will likewise look to do the same thing against incumbent U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in the 2nd District situated in the areas of the state outside of Portland and surrounding areas. While Poliquin will have defeated Golden in this TL, Mills will have been reelected against LePage whose controversial tenure was the basis for the state's ranked-choice voting system where LePage could no longer rely on Dem defectors to third-party candidates to shore himself up, though IRL there is a chance LePage could prevail depending on what the political climate will be in November for Maine. (The state's other U.S. Rep., Democrat Chellie Pingree, will likely be reelected to the 1st District, but in this TL thus far she is running in the Democratic primary against Golden for the open Senate seat of retiring independent Angus King).

Lastly, in North Dakota while some would have said John Hoeven deserved a primary challenge, he ultimately prevailed over his rival Riley Kuntz and will be an easy victor over Dem-NPL candidate Katrina Christiansen, who herself prevailed over Michael Steele (NOT the former RNC Chairman from Maryland) in the Dem-NPL primary. As will at-large U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong over Dem-NPL rival Mark Haugen.


May 2, 2024
TRUMP, PENCE MAKE DUELING ENDORSEMENTS IN INDIANA, OHIO
Even though Donald Trump is no longer running for President, his impact may continue to be felt in upcoming primaries for important races in two of three states where congressional and statewide primaries will be held on Tuesday. On Thursday morning, Trump endorsed House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan for the GOP nod to take on incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown. Speaking at a rally in Toledo, Jordan called Trump "the greatest President in our lifetime and a powerful champion for everyday Americans" and vowed to "fight against the socialist tide that Kamala Harris is riding on". Jordan also highlighted his work on Judiciary, including his "standing up to the Biden administration" and "stopping Biden from attempting to force an expansion of the Supreme Court", while also criticizing his chief rival, Lt. Gov. Jon Husted as "a D.C. swamp creature who failed Ohioans" with regards to the state's handling of COVID-19 as well as the 2020 election results, despite Ohio have gone for Trump in that election. Later that day, Trump endorsed Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita as "a fighter who stands up for families and will be STRONG on borders, crime and our Constitution!" in a published statement through his Save America PAC, while also criticizing Rokita rival and former U.S. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, who voted to form the January 6th commission, as "a backstabber who couldn't wait to get out of Congress and turned his back on Hoosiers when they needed him".

Former Vice President Mike Pence, on the other hand, defied Trump in the endorsements game by endorsing Hollingsworth at a rally in Terre Haute on Thursday night. "There is no greater Hoosier who will fight for Indiana than Trey Hollingsworth", Pence remarked without making any mention of Rokita even in terms of criticism, while also pointing to Hollingsworth as "a job creator who will fight to reignite the torch that keeps Indiana going". Rokita for his part responded by saying that he has no ill will towards Pence and notes that "at the end of the day, we will prevail and unite to elect a strong conservative ticket across Indiana from the Region to the (Ohio) River in November". Pence also endorsed Husted earlier in the week, calling Husted "a true champion for working Ohioans and their families with an accomplished record of statewide success".

Tuesday's election will also feature House contests in Ohio and Indiana as well as neighboring Illinois, which has neither a gubernatorial or Senate race this year but will see a slew of competitive races involving vulnerable freshmen Republicans, vulnerable Democrats and a few Democrat-on-Democrat battles in Chicago. In Ohio, Democrats are set to nominate challengers to vulnerable freshman Republicans in two northeast Ohio districts: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in the Akron-to-Canton-based 15th and Max Miller from the 10th in Cleveland's western suburbs, as well as veteran Republicans Bob Latta in the 5th District (now anchored in Toledo) and Mike Turner in the Dayton-based 3rd District. Republicans will also be nominating a candidate in the open Cincinnati-based 1st District (now entirely within Hamilton County) of retiring Republican incumbent Steve Chabot that is expected to be an underdog against Democratic former Cincinnati Mayor and failed 2022 gubernatorial hopeful John Cranley in November, as well as a successor to Jordan in the 8th District - now anchored in Columbus's northern suburbs including Dublin and Delaware County as well as Mansfield and Jordan's residence in Urbana (the 4th District, which Jordan has long represented, now refers to Warren Davidson's current 8th). Indiana, by comparison, has no notable races other than a rematch between Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan and his 2022 GOP challenger Jennifer-Ruth Green in the northwest Indiana-based 1st and the open, heavily Republican 4th District of Jim Baird whose son, State Rep. Beau Baird, is favored to win his party's nomination in the Lafayette-based district.

May 5, 2024
"SQUAD GAME" AD, MURDER & RACISM DEFINE ILLINOIS DEM RACES; TRIB MAKES GOP PRIMARY CALLS
Illinois will play host to a number of competitive congressional primary battles on Tuesday, but some of them have already taken a dark turn with hours to go before the last polls are conducted. In the incumbent-on-incumbent battle in the 1st District stretching from Chicago's Loop to the West and South sides, freshman Democrats Kina Collins and Jonathan Jackson have engaged in a series of nasty political ads with one accusing the other of various allegations. Jackson, whose father is the Rev. Jesse Jackson (known for his noteworthy 1984 and 1988 presidential campaigns), touted his status as the godson of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and has pointed out in ads that "no family has fought harder to help Blacks achieve the American Dream than mine has", while also criticizing Collins in a "Squad Game" ad - a play on the Netflix series Squid Game - in which Jackson's ad accuses Collins of "choosing her constituents and discarding the rest", pointing to Collins' support from White progressives and association with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other members of "The Squad", while getting relatively fewer donations from Chicago's influential Black Democratic voters. Collins, meanwhile, has called Jackson "a relic of jaded Black Democratic power brokers whose policies have failed to help families" and compared Jackson to the elderly incumbent she beat in 2022, former U.S. Rep. Danny K. Davis.

The race has also been marred by the murder of one of Collins' campaign volunteers, with Collins alleging that the death of a 21-year-old University of Illinois-Chicago student who was volunteering with her campaign may have been perpetrated by a Jackson volunteer. The Jackson campaign has denied the allegations, pointing that "we have vetted all of our volunteers, and none of them had anything to do with the murder of our rival campaign's volunteer", while also pointing fingers at "moneyed elitist Democrats who have spent more money propping up suburban Dems who only last one or two cycles instead of investing in our urban communities where Democrats enjoy commanding advantages". The murder is especially a sore spot for Collins, a gun control activist prior to her election to Congress from the current 7th District in 2022; the core of the old 7th on Chicago's West Side now makes up much of the core of the new 1st, which also extends to the old 1st's historic base on Chicago's South Side. In an interview during WGN-TV's morning newscast, when asked by anchor Larry Potash if Collins will endorse Jackson should he prevail, Collins dodged the question while pointing out "the hurt our campaign has experienced from this tragedy may make it very difficult for many us to unite in November", even though the new 1st has the second-largest total of Democratic votes in the state behind the heavily White and Jewish, lakefront Chicago-based 9th District, making the possibility of a GOP pickup in the overwhelmingly Democratic district virtually impossible.

Meanwhile, in the 5th District stretching from Chicago's Northwest Side (including such neighborhoods as North Park and Dunning) to such suburbs as Rosemont, Park Ridge and Schaumburg, the race has turned into a nasty battle between Democratic incumbents Mike Quigley and Raja Krishnamoorthi, with both accusing each other of "being the most corrupt member of Congress from Chicago" and Krishnamoorthi accusing Quigley, who moved from his lakefront Chicago neighborhood to a residence in Rosemont near O'Hare International Airport, of being a "carpetbagger who is scared of the Jewish Democratic establishment that favored (retiring U.S. Rep.) Jan Schakowsky". Quigley, a reform-minded Democrat who has been critical of Chicago's infamously corrupt Democratic machine, called Krishnamoorthi "worse than the Chicago and DC machine that funnels millions of dollars from drug companies and other corporate interests who care little about working Chicago families", while Krishnamoorthi in return accused Quigley and his supporters of racism with regards to the former's sizable donations from his fellow South Asian voters: "Whether or not most of my donations come from my fellow Asian Americans is frankly none of Mike Quigley's business and to criticize otherwise is the sort of racist dog whistle that has no place in our discourse". Both Quigley and Krishnamoorthi represent large chunks of Chicago's northwest suburbs, stretching as far west as Barrington and Elgin in their current gerrymandered districts, though the new 5th only goes as far west as Arlington Heights (where the NFL's Chicago Bears are building a new stadium on the grounds of a former thoroughbred racecourse), in northwest Cook County.

Democrats, meanwhile, will decide their nominee in the heavily Democratic 9th which (as aforementioned) stretches from Chicago's lakefront neighborhoods north of the Loop including the Magnificent Mile to the college town of Evanston and the historically Jewish suburb of Skokie. The Democratic primary, tantamount to election in the heavily White, college-educated liberal district, will be a choice between Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, State Sen. Mike Simmons and Chicago City Council member and progressive community organizer Maria Hadden (who caucuses as an independent on the council and has accused the Israeli-American Biss of "being complicit in the genocide of Palestinians") among other candidates; Schakowsky has endorsed Biss. Democrats will also be choosing nominees to take on vulnerable freshmen Republicans across Chicagoland, including 6th District incumbent Keith Pekau (now running in a newly drawn 7th anchored in his southwest Cook County base), 11th District incumbent Catalina Lauf (seeking reelection in the new 8th anchored in Chicago's northwestern suburbs from Palatine and Geneva to McHenry County), and 14th District incumbent Mike Koolidge (whose district now stretches from Aurora to as far south as Bloomington).

Two defeated former Democratic Reps., Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood, will also be looking to make political comebacks, with Casten running in the restored 6th District that is now exclusively within DuPage County and Underwood in the Will County-anchored 11th District; both districts are also being heavily targeted by the NRCC and have wide Republican primary fields. The Chicago Tribune wasted no time endorsing candidates in both districts, endorsing attorney and former State Representative Peter Breen in the 6th ("We do sometimes question as to why the culture wars enamor him, but his effectiveness during his time in the Illinois Legislature is noble in many aspects. Breen is endorsed.") and Will County Republican Central Committee Chairman George Pearson in the 11th ("His boldness in defending his conservative bonafides, especially in the face of Pritzker's former Democratic machine, sets him apart in this field. Pearson is endorsed."); notably, if Pearson were to prevail in the latter, it would set up an unprecedented and competitive Black vs. Black general election battle in Chicago's southern suburbs.

In downstate Illinois, Democrats will also be looking to field competitive challengers in three districts - the 12th District in St. Louis's Metro East suburbs where Mike Bost is seeking a sixth term, the 16th District from Rockford to suburban Peoria currently held by Republican Darin LaHood, and the 17th District from Moline to Quincy and Peoria whose Republican incumbent is freshman Esther Joy King; while Republicans are currently favored, Democrats hope to connect with "pivot voters" who went from voting twice for Obama to twice for Trump over a 12-year period. Democrats themselves are also set to renominate Nikki Budzinski, a freshman Democrat whose gerrymandered 13th District has since been "normalized" to her disadvantage with former Republican U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis and 2022 Lieutenant Governor hopeful & former State Rep. Avery Bourne among the Republicans aiming to take Budzinski on. Two-term Republican Mary Miller, who defeated Davis in 2022's primary for her 15th District with help from former President Donald Trump, is expected to face only nominal Democratic opposition in November.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: June 20, 2022, 01:56:17 PM »

It is the first Tuesday of May, and the voters in three prominent Midwestern states have spoken at the congressional and gubernatorial level...

May 7, 2024
TRUMP PICKS PREVAIL IN MIDWEST PRIMARIES; DEMS CALL GOP "STILL BEHOLDEN TO TRUMP"
Donald Trump may no longer be a presidential candidate, but the impact of his endorsements in Tuesday's primaries for Governor, Senate and Congress across three states in the Midwest was certainly felt as the number of states with completed slates for November quadrupled beyond Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. The most certain impact occurred as expected in Ohio, where House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan prevailed in his primary for the U.S. Senate seat of vulnerable three-term Democrat Sherrod Brown, winning 36 percent of the vote to 33 percent for Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted, who had the backing of former Vice President Mike Pence, Gov. Mike DeWine and virtually every major newspaper across the Buckeye State. During a watch party in Columbus, Jordan thanked his supporters and exclaimed "It's time for conservatives and Republicans to unite and work to remind Sherrod Brown that Ohio is not for sale down the river!", while Husted thanked his supporters and willingly endorsed Jordan: "It may not be the ideal outcome we wanted, and while I admit to some personal qualms about him, our goal remains defeating Sherrod Brown and defeating Democrats cold this November". Husted is already being mentioned as a potential 2026 candidate for Governor of Ohio, as 79-year-old GOP incumbent DeWine is term limited and cannot seek a third term.

Voters in parts of Ohio also elected nominees for several competitive congressional races in the state's newly redrawn districts due to a court-ordered redistricting. In the Cincinnati-based 1st District being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. Steve Chabot, former State Rep. Tom Brinkman will face former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley in a district now exclusively within Hamilton County that voted for Joe Biden by 17 percent, while freshman Republican Rep. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert will face a rematch in an evenly divided 15th District (which connects Akron to Canton in Northeast Ohio and which Trump lost by only 0.2 percent in 2016 and 2020) against former State House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes, who lost to Gilbert in a very unfavorable environment for Democrats in 2022. Two other suburban Cleveland Republicans will also have at least fairly competitive races in 2024, with 10th District freshman Max Miller facing jurist and former State Rep. Nick Celebrezze in a battle of scions of prominent Cleveland families in the city's western suburbs, while longtime moderate Rep. Dave Joyce will face former State Sen. Sean O'Brien in the east suburban-based 14th District.

In the Dayton-based 3rd District another longtime moderate Republican Rep., Mike Turner, will face Montgomery County Commissioner Debbie Lieberman in November, while another longtime GOP Rep., Bob Latta, will face arguably his toughest reelection to date against State Rep. Lisa Sobecki in his northwest-based, historically heavily Republican 5th District that is now anchored in Toledo - a city Latta has never represented in Congress, and which backed Barack Obama and Donald Trump twice. One seat that is not expected to be in serious contention is the 8th District, a favorably Republican district now anchored in Columbus's northern suburbs that also includes Mansfield and Jim Jordan's hometown of Urbana. In the new 8th (essentially the old 4th save for swapped numbers with the old 8th of Republican Warren Davidson), State Rep. Kris Jordan (no relation to Jim) prevailed out of a crowded Republican primary to win his party's nomination - the real contest in the district.

Meanwhile, in Indiana the open battle for Governor also went in Trump's direction as state Attorney General Todd Rokita defeated former U.S. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth on the strength of his strong support in the Indianapolis suburbs and statewide name recognition from both his current service as Indiana's Attorney General and his previous service as Secretary of State (as well as his time as a four-term Congressman from the western-based 4th District in between both statewide stints), but most especially due to Rokita having been endorsed by the former President versus Hollingsworth, who despite being endorsed by Pence was largely invisible outside of southern Indiana, an area he represented during his three terms in Congress from 2016 to 2022. Rokita will now face Hammond Mayor and 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Tom McDermott, who is considered one of the Democrats' best statewide prospects nationwide in this election cycle. It is not the only major statewide race in Indiana this year, as first-term Republican Sen. Mike Braun will also be up for reelection and will face Democratic State Sen. and former Miss Indiana Shelli Yoder in November. Indiana's House races, though, are not expected to draw much attention in November; asides from Democrat Frank Mrvan's rematch with Jennifer-Ruth Green in the northwest-based 1st District and State Rep. Beau Baird earning the GOP nod to succeed his retiring father Jim Baird in the western-based 4th District, Indiana is not expected to be a major congressional battleground this year.

May 7, 2024
TWO CHICAGO DEMOCRATS LOSE DEM RENOMINATION; SUBURBAN BATTLES SET FOR NOVEMBER
Illinois' court-ordered redistricting proved costly to two of four incumbent Democrats who were drawn into Democratic primary battle royales on Tuesday, as a slew of other primaries and emerging suburban battlegrounds defined the evening for congressional candidates in the Land of Lincoln.

In Chicago, progressive Democrat Kina Collins narrowly lost to fellow Democratic incumbent Jonathan Jackson in a newly redrawn 1st District anchored mostly on Chicago's West Side - the old base of Collins' current 7th District, earning 35 percent of the vote to Jackson's 38 percent. While Collins enjoyed strong support from progressives and had a geographical advantage with most of the district being her own territory, Jackson enjoyed strong support from much of Chicago's Democratic power base for whom Collins never quite connected with. Jackson also benefited from a strong surrogate in his father, 1984 and 1988 Democratic presidential candidate and civil rights activist Jesse Jackson, who ran ads praising the younger Jackson's "work ethic and dedication to fighting for the least amongst us", while calling out Collins for taking donations from "liberal Whites who have never spent a night in Black America". The race had also been marred by the murder of one of Collins' campaign volunteers, which Jackson's campaign denied any involvement in despite allegations from Collins - a gun control activist before her congressional run - that the suspect had connections to Jackson, and also defined by ads in which Collins portrayed her opponent - whose brother Jesse Jr. (a former Congressman) served federal prison time for campaign finance violations. Jackson is now a prohibitive favorite to win reelection in the newly drawn 1st District.

Elsewhere in Chicago, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi defeated fellow Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley in a newly drawn 5th District connecting Chicago's Northwest Side and O'Hare Airport to such suburbs as Arlington Heights and Schaumburg, winning nearly 50 percent of the vote to 35 percent for Quigley, whose decision to move from the city's lakefront to a house in North Park drew controversy along with reports that Krishnamoorthi took most of his donations from pharmaceutical companies as well as out-of-state donors; Krishnamoorthi later accused Quigley of racism when the latter reportedly began sounding off mostly Asian-American names of his rival's donors during a campaign forum in Rosemont, in an attempt to portray Krishnamoorthi as emblematic of Chicago's infamous reputation for corruption. While Republicans will have a well-funded candidate on the ballot, President Biden won the new 5th by 20 percent in 2020, making any possibility of the district flipping in November difficult save for the most optimistic scenarios. As for Quigley's old lakefront base, it is now in a newly redrawn and open 9th District from north of the Chicago Loop to Evanston and Skokie, where longtime retiring Democrat Jan Schakowsky's endorsement of Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss enabled the latter to win 35 percent in a crowded Democratic field, with his closest competition coming from progressive Chicago City Council member Maria Hadden who won 28 percent and State Sen. Mike Simmons who won 23 percent; Biss is now a prohibitive favorite for November.

Both parties also fielded candidates in two critical suburban battlegrounds in Chicago's collar counties on Tuesday, with Democrats nominating former U.S. Reps. who lost their reelection bids in 2022 - Sean Casten in the DuPage County-based 6th and Lauren Underwood in the Will County-anchored 11th. Both are expected to face strong Republican challengers in former State Rep. Peter Breen against Casten and Will County Republican Central Committee Chairman George Pearson against Underwood, with the latter setting up a historic Black vs. Black battle in the Chicago suburbs this November. Democrats also nominated challengers against three suburban Republican newcomers across Chicagoland's suburbs, nominating State Sen. Mike Hastings to take on Rep. Keith Pekau in the southwest Cook County-based 7th District, former State Rep. Suzanne Ness against Rep. Catalina Lauf in the northwest suburban-based 8th District, and former State Rep. Lance Yednock against Rep. Mike Koolidge in the 14th District from Aurora to Bloomington. Outside of Chicagoland, vulnerable freshman Democrat Nikki Budzinski will face reelection in a "normalized" Central Illinois-based 13th District against Republican former State Rep. Avery Bourne (who defeated former U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis in a close GOP primary), while 12th District incumbent Mike Bost will fight for a sixth term against State Rep. Katie Stuart in a competitive district dominated by St. Louis's Metro East suburbs. Freshman Republican Rep. Esther Joy King, already viewed as a rising star in Republican circles, will only face lower-tier opposition from the Democrats in a Moline-to-Peoria 17th District made more Republican in redistricting.

May 11, 2024
"I AM NOT A RACIST": CONTROVERSIAL WEST VIRGINIA CANDIDATE ON DEFENSIVE IN GOP SENATE PRIMARY
In response to a series of controversial ads in the Republican primary to succeed Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, along with a series of off-hand comments caught during a hot mic by a local TV station, Republican candidate Don Blankenship attempted to dispel rumors that the former Massey Energy CEO is a racist during an interview on the Saturday morning edition of Fox & Friends on Fox News Channel. During some of his ads, Blankenship referred to the COVID-19 pandemic as a "Chinese invasion aimed at undermining West Virginia values", called San Francisco residents "masters of our cultural genocide", and pledged "to make Greta Thunberg cry" in reference to the Green New Deal. When asked during the interview by host Rachel Campos-Duffy about the ads, Blankenship quipped "I'm just speaking the way many West Virginians do regarding the issues affecting them and their families. We're not exactly the most polished people on the face of the earth, but I know for one that the Biden Administration has been 'gloom and doom' from the start".

During the interview, Blankenship was also asked about a recent hot mic moment during a live interview with WSAZ-TV, in which Blankenship was recorded off-camera making crude references to Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris including "people like her are known for selling their bodies for favors" (apparently referring to Harris' past relationship with then-San Francisco Mayor and fellow African-American Willie Brown) and "she has a jive attitude". Blankenship in response denied that his comments were made to disparage Black people, "I am not a racist, and the fact that I have Black folks working on our campaign including in leadership is proof of that".

Blankenship's comments were not well received by his rivals nor the West Virginia Republican Party which called the comments "unconscionable and unbecoming of the standards expected of our candidates", also noting that Blankenship is a registered supporter of the Constitution Party for which Blankenship ran as their party's presidential nominee in 2020. His rivals also condemned the comments, with U.S. Rep Alex Mooney calling Blankenship's comments "more gaslighting from a failing candidate" while state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey quipped "Maybe he should stick to getting out of jail free", in reference to Blankenship serving one year in prison for violating federal mine safety standards in the wake of a tragic explosion at the Upper Big Branch Mine in 2010 that killed 29 coal miners. Most recent polls show Blankenship narrowly trailing both Morrisey and Mooney in a three-way race, with former State Sen. Richard Ojeda holding a commanding lead amongst Democrats.

Editor's note: In real life, Joe Manchin has already announced he will seek reelection, but in this TL he will have had a change of heart when choosing between becoming a Republican or choosing to retire knowing that the odds of his reelection are difficult in a state that has become quite hostile to Democrats, and especially given the defeat of Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who had endorsed Manchin beforehand. It is also important to note that the story I published about Manchin retiring in this TL was timestamped a few months after Manchin made his statement.

May 12, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES MORRISEY FOR WEST VIRGINIA SENATE SEAT: "HE FOUGHT THE STEAL"
On Sunday morning, former President Donald Trump made his endorsement clear in the race for U.S. Senate in West Virginia, endorsing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey for the Republican nomination. In his endorsement, Trump cited "Morrisey's strong commitment to fighting against open borders, crime and drugs shows that he is TOUGH on criminals and lawbreakers!", and also alluded to Morrisey's support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's election fraud brief: "He fought the steal, and that alone is convincing enough for me to endorse Morrisey and I encourage West Virginians to do the same!" Morrisey ran against incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin in 2018, narrowly losing in a bad year for Republicans nationally. Manchin's retirement makes this particular Senate seat arguably the most likely pickup opportunity for the GOP in November's Senate elections, as West Virginia has become one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation.

U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, who had won Trump's endorsement for his congressional reelection in 2022 against then-fellow incumbent Republican David McKinley (as Mooney's district had been eliminated in redistricting), brushed off the news as "only a fork in the road" and touted his endorsements from various conservative groups including the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund. "Donald Trump accomplished a great deal of things that West Virginians can be proud of, but he is not necessarily the last word when it comes to America First", and noted that "America First will outlive Donald Trump, just like 'peace through strength' outlived Ronald Reagan". Another one of Morrisey's rivals, Don Blankenship (himself facing controversy over recent comments regarding Kamala Harris and others), called Trump's endorsement "fleeting" and "proof that Trump has effectively become more and more like the swamp he claimed to want to drain". West Virginia's U.S. Senate seat is considered arguably the top pickup opportunity for the GOP, which is looking to augment its already thin majority in November.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: June 21, 2022, 02:22:20 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2022, 05:11:20 PM by SaintStan86 »

It is now Tuesday, May 14th. Three states will making what have become nominal presidential primaries in states with the rare position of having more Republican delegates than pledged Democratic ones, but a critical Senate primary is waiting in the wings...

WEST VIRGINIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

While not exactly as prominent as in the past, West Virginia's Democratic primary remains a popular affair in the state, with 20 pledged delegates set to be awarded tonight including 13 congressional delegates.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 47.77 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 53.23 percent went to other candidates, including 24.25 for Elizabeth Warren and 20.14 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Charleston, Huntington & Bluefield (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Morgantown, Martinsburg & Parkersburg (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1942 delegates +15 from West Virginia
Elizabeth Warren - 788 delegates +3 from West Virginia
Pete Buttigieg - 493 delegates +2 from West Virginia
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While Harris still won the lion's share of the delegates, she does not win an absolute majority, bringing into question whether or not Harris is capable of winning over blue-collar "pivot voters" who shifted from Obama to Trump between 2008/2012 and 2016/2020. Warren and Buttigieg won at least one delegate in each of West Virginia's two congressional districts, with Warren gaining a second delegate from the 2nd District anchored in Morgantown (home to West Virginia University).

WEST VIRGINIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Republicans in West Virginia will award 31 delegates to the candidate receiving the most statewide votes.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 74.51 percent
Ben Sasse - 11.10 percent
Candace Owens - 2.95 percent
(Remaining 11.44 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1257 delegates +31 from West Virginia
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 47 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

While not as large as the percentage Donald Trump got in West Virginia shortly after he became the presumptive Republican nominee in 2016, it is still a commanding percentage as DeSantis wins every county in the Mountain State. Appropriate for a state whose tourism slogan essentially matched the nature of this year's Republican presidential primary, the "Wild and Wonderful" chase for 1,250 comes to a close, with just eight states and the Virgin Islands remaining...

REPUBLICAN PARTY
PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE



Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Government of Florida

Ron DeSantis, Florida
Governor of Florida
Former U.S. Representative, 6th District of Florida

Needless to say, the night is far from over. There are also two other states in the American heartland making their presidential calls tonight...

KANSAS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

33 pledged delegates will be awarded to qualifying Democrats in tonight's open primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 62.91 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 37.09 percent went to other candidates, including 20.10 for Elizabeth Warren and 16.99 for Pete Buttigieg)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Hays, Dodge City & Lawrence (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Topeka, Kansas City & Pittsburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD3/Overland Park, Ottawa & Garnett (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Wichita, Eureka & Pratt (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
At-Large Delegates (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1969 delegates +27 from Kansas
Elizabeth Warren - 793 delegates +5 from Kansas
Pete Buttigieg - 494 delegates +1 from Kansas
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

As with West Virginia, Harris also suffers a bleed of congressional delegates with Warren winning at least one delegate in each of the state's four congressional districts, as well as an additional delegate in the Topeka-based 2nd District, and Buttigieg winning a delegate in the heavily rural, western- and central-based "Big First".

KANSAS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

40 delegates will be awarded in tonight's Republican primary in Kansas, including 12 congressional delegates and 28 others (including three party leaders) awarded statewide. A 10 percent threshold is required for candidates to earn delegates at both levels with the exception of the party leaders (the state's two RNC members and the state party chair) who are bound to the top statewide vote-getter.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 62.59 percent
Ben Sasse - 16.19 percent
Candace Owens - 3.85 percent
(Remaining 17.37 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Hays, Dodge City & Lawrence (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ben Sasse 1
CD2/Topeka, Kansas City & Pittsburg (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ben Sasse 1
CD3/Overland Park, Ottawa & Garnett (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ben Sasse 1
CD4/Wichita, Eureka & Pratt (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ben Sasse 1
Statewide, at-large (25 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 20, Ben Sasse 5
Party Leaders (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1288 delegates +31 from Kansas
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 56 delegates +9 from Kansas
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis dominated the Sunflower State, but the threshold is low enough at 10 percent that Sasse (who represents neighboring Nebraska in the Senate) manages to win a delegate in each of the state's four congressional districts as well as five at-large.

NEBRASKA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Nebraska Democrats will allocate 25 pledged delegates to qualifying candidates in tonight's primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 65.10 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 34.90 percent went to other candidates, including 16.51 for Pete Buttigieg and 14.59 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Lincoln, Norfolk & Papillion (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Omaha, Gretna & Wahoo (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8
CD3/Scottsbluff, North Platte & Nebraska City (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1992 delegates +23 from Nebraska
Elizabeth Warren - 794 delegates +1 from Nebraska
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates +1 from Nebraska
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris swept Nebraska, but as with West Virginia and Kansas it too is not a clean sweep as Warren wins a delegate in the 1st District that includes the state capital of Lincoln and the University of Nebraska's main campus, while Buttigieg wins a delegate in the heavily rural 3rd District. The trend of Harris overperforming amongst middle-class suburban women, versus Warren's comparatively stronger performance with working-class, labor and student voters and Buttigieg's sizable support among rural populists, persists.

NEBRASKA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Nebraska Republicans will award a total of 35 delegates to the top vote-getter in tonight's presidential primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 61.55 percent (35 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 25.63 percent
Candace Owens - 3.01 percent
(Remaining 9.81 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1323 delegates +35 from Nebraska
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 56 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Despite a strong push from favorite son Sasse, DeSantis still won handily in the Cornhusker State with over 60 percent of the vote and won all of the state's congressional districts with 55-65 percent of the vote.

May 14, 2024
IT'S OFFICIAL: DeSANTIS CLINCHES GOP NOMINATION
With the close of polling results in West Virginia, along with subsequent results in Kansas and Nebraska, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis reached another milestone by officially clinching the 1,250 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for President, winning a grand total of 97 delegates across the three reliably Republican states - ones with more delegates each than their Democratic counterparts, and all with entirely Republican congressional delegations since the 2022 midterms. Celebrating the news before a packed crowd at a college gymnasium in Overland Park, Kansas, a suburb of Kansas City, DeSantis cheered "Tonight, right here in the Heart of America, where Republicans gathered during their bicentennial convention in 1976, I am honored to announce that I have enough delegates and then some to become your presumptive Republican nominee!" to a thundering crowd. While DeSantis clearly dominated in all three states, it was not a unanimous sweep of delegates; in Kansas, Sen. Ben Sasse won nine delegates, including one in each of the state's four congressional districts, to bring his total to 56 delegates - a far cry from DeSantis's overall haul of 1,323 delegates bound to the Florida Governor.

The Democratic primaries, meanwhile, were a relatively low-key affair in comparison. At a rally at the Charleston Civic Center in Charleston, West Virginia, Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged her further gains from tonight by alluding to one of West Virginia's favorite sons: "As Bill Withers would say, today has been a lovely day, and tonight is shaping up to be a lovely night!", Harris acknowledged as she celebrated her own wins in tonight's three aforementioned states. However, unlike DeSantis, Harris did not exactly dominate and in fact finished with only a plural majority in West Virginia as she struggled to consolidate Democratic votes in rural and progressive areas, though Harris did come away with 65 delegates tonight to bring her total to 1,992 pledged delegates. Sen. Elizabeth Warren won nine pledged delegates to bring her total to 794 pledged delegates, while former Sec. Pete Buttigieg won an additional four delegates; both Warren and Buttigieg won their delegates at the congressional level. CNN contributor and veteran Democratic strategist James Carville was particularly pointed in his analysis of tonight's delegate wins: "If Kamala Harris thinks suburban women alone will carry her to the White House, try telling that to professional liberals, Bernie Bros, lunch pail Democrats and country boys - she ain't gonna be Madam President without 'em!"

May 14, 2024
MORRISEY WINS GOP NOD FOR SENATE IN WEST VIRGINIA, WILL FACE OJEDA IN NOVEMBER
The race to succeed outgoing U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia proceeds to the next level on Tuesday night as state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey won a contentious Republican primary with over 35 percent of the vote to 32 percent for his closest rival, conservative U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, and 25 percent for controversial former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship, whose campaign imploded in the wake of controversial statements and ads made in recent weeks, including crude and racially tinged comments regarding Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. Acknowledging his win tonight, Morrisey gave thanks to his supporters at a rally in Huntington and also to former President Donald Trump, who had endorsed Morrisey over the weekend. "This is still Trump's party, and it's going to be DeSantis's party, too, and as your next Senator, I will keep the fire of liberty burning from the mountaintops for Ron DeSantis to see!", said Morrisey.

Morrisey will now proceed to the general election against former State Sen. Richard Ojeda, who won the endorsement of Manchin and has all but united Democrats after Manchin's change of heart last year from previously seeking reelection, but faces long odds in what has become one of the most reliably Republican states in recent years. Voters in Mooney's open congressional seat in the northern- and eastern-based 2nd District also selected their nominees, with State Del., Speaker Pro Tempore and motorsports enthusiast Gary Howell winning a crowded Republican primary to take on Democratic State Del. and Minority Whip Shawn Fluharty in a battle of chamber leaders. The only other congressional race of note on Tuesday was in Nebraska's 2nd District (based in Omaha), where perennial DCCC target and moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon will face State Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh in what is expected to be a pivotal November battle.

May 14, 2024
SASSE ENDS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, WILL NOT SEEK REELECTION IN 2026
On Tuesday night, Sen. Ben Sasse ended his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on the steps of his home in Fremont, Nebraska, moments after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis spoke in neighboring Kansas at his rally in suburban Kansas City. Even though the two-term Nebraska Senator had been mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination - having won a paltry 56 delegates, including nine won tonight in neighboring Kansas, Sasse nonetheless continued to campaign for the Republican nomination if only to focus on such issues as the national debt, education reform, workplace readiness and promoting American manufacturing and agriculture. All of these issues have since been adopted by DeSantis and other Republicans, with many of these issues tying into former President Donald Trump's America First agenda and other legacy Republican agendas as well.

Despite his earnest focus on "steady, principled conservative leadership" and coming close to winning the Iowa caucuses last February, Sasse struggled to compete against DeSantis and other higher-profile Republicans and was never forgiven by many in his party for his vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, as well as his lingering disdain for the former President dating back to before Trump even won the 2016 presidential election. Despite this, DeSantis and other Republicans, along with members of the Trump family and even Trump himself (who acknowledged "Give props to Little Ben Sasse for at least talking about our deficit and China in the same sitting - these issues all tie together!"), saluted Sasse upon news of his departure from the race, if only for choosing to remain in the presidential race despite the odds solely to focus on certain issues of interest to the Nebraska Senator. Sasse's departure leaves commentator Candace Owens as the only remaining alternative to DeSantis still active on the GOP side, as Owens has chosen to "fight to the very end" despite faring even worse with only five delegates won so far.

In addition to departing from the presidential election, Sasse also announced he will not be seeking reelection to his Senate seat in 2026. While the move does come across as unsurprising given Sasse's relative lack of institutional support within the Senate as a staunch conservative skeptical of the former President, as well as the fact that most Nebraska Senators have not served more than two terms in the postwar era (save for the likely reelection of Sasse's GOP colleague Deb Fischer who is seeking a third term against Omaha City Council member Pete Festersen), Sasse cited his primary reason for not seeking reelection as "wanting to spend more time with my wonderful family here in Nebraska, watch my kids grow taller than the cornfields, the little things that matter", as well as a belief that "when you stay in Washington beyond the time God has for you, you eventually lose sight of God". Sasse's departure from the Senate will mark the first open seat of the upcoming 2026 cycle, with former Gov. Pete Ricketts and U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith amongst potential Republican candidates.
Logged
NOTTYLER
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,238
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: June 21, 2022, 09:49:17 AM »

Ew. DeSantis is literally awful
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: June 21, 2022, 11:23:15 PM »

In true Barenaked Ladies fashion, it's been One Week since the primary bells tolled at us. Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon - all states with no Senate races - have their congressional primaries, and the latter two have vanity presidential contests, too...

KENTUCKY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

45 pledged delegates - including 29 from Kentucky's six congressional districts - will be awarded in tonight's Democratic primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 61.41 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 38.59 percent went to other candidates, including 18.41 who voted Uncommitted)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Paducah, Campbellsville & Frankfort (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Uncommitted 1
CD2/Bowling Green, Fisherville & Owensboro (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Uncommitted 1
CD3/Louisville (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8
CD4/Newport, Shelbyville & Vanceburg (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD5/Somerset, Morehead & Pikeville (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Uncommitted 1
CD6/Lexington, Richmond & Flemingsburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Uncommitted 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Uncommitted 1
At-Large Delegates (10 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Uncommitted 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2030 delegates +38 from Kentucky
Elizabeth Warren - 794 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris wins over 60 percent of the vote and 38 pledged delegates in the Bluegrass State, but of the other nearly 39 percent who voted, nearly half (18 percent) voted Uncommitted, including over 25 percent in many parts of rural Kentucky - an unprecedented number. Harris is only able to sweep delegate counts in the most urban and suburban districts in the state - the 3rd District in Louisville and the 4th District primarily centered in the Northern Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. No other candidate crossed 15 percent in congressional districts, and the seven delegates not won by Harris are all Uncommitted to any particular candidate.

KENTUCKY
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

In one of the few states with more Republican delegates than pledged Democratic ones, 46 delegates will be awarded in tonight's primary, including 18 at the congressional level. Candidates receiving at least 15 percent of the vote will be awarded delegates proportionally based on the statewide vote.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 78.62 percent (46 delegates)
Candace Owens - 4.14 percent
(Remaining 17.24 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1369 delegates +46 from Kentucky
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 56 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis won a whopping 78.62 percent of the vote in tonight's Kentucky primary, and won all of the state's 46 delegates.

Much later in the night, as the late night shows conclude on the East Coast and the late news is about to start on the West Coast...

OREGON
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Oregon Democrats will award 56 pledged delegates to qualifying candidates in tonight's closed caucuses, with the action largely centered on postmarks and other hallmarks of the state's mail-in ballot-dominated primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 58.58 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 41.42 percent went to other candidates, including 24.15 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Portland (west of the Willamette), Beaverton & Astoria (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/Medford, Pendleton & Ontario (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Portland (east of the Willamette), Happy Valley & Hood River (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 3
CD4/Eugene, Corvallis & Roseburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/Lake Oswego, Albany & Bend (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Tualatin, McMinnville & Salem (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
At-Large Delegates (12 delegates):
Kamala Harris 12

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2076 delegates +46 from Oregon
Elizabeth Warren - 804 delegates +10 from Oregon
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris also failed to crack 60 percent in Oregon, where Warren continued to show strength despite dropping out last March with over 24 percent of the vote, most of it concentrated in and around Portland as well as the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis. Warren's continued show of strength in racking up delegates is likely to foretell strong progressive headwinds leading up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

OREGON
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

34 delegates will be awarded in tonight's closed Republican presidential primary to qualifying candidates in Oregon. Candidates will be awarded delegates based on the proportional results statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 71.76 percent (46 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.01 percent
(Remaining 26.23 percent went to other candidates, including 10.34 for Ben Sasse, 7.43 for Nikki Haley, 4.26 for Mike Pence, and 1.61 for Ted Cruz)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1393 delegates +24 from Oregon
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates +3 from Oregon
Mike Pence - 318 delegates +1 from Oregon
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates +1 from Oregon
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates +4 from Oregon
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates +1 from Oregon
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis turned in another dominating performance, but only won 24 of 34 delegates as Oregon's Republican delegates are proportionally allocated to all candidates based on the overall statewide results. Sasse wins another four delegates to overtake former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan for fifth place in total delegates, while Haley gains three additional delegates and Pence, Cruz and Owens each earn a delegate as well.

Asides from the two vanity presidential primaries on both sides, there are no Senate or gubernatorial races held statewide and only a handful of notable congressional battles. The most significant congressional contests of the night are in Oregon, where Democrats picked candidates to take on three freshmen Republicans in marginal districts. The most vulnerable of the three is Alek Skarlatos whose 4th District contains the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis - both strongholds for Sen. Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic presidential ledger tonight, but otherwise is dominated by mostly coastal exurban and agrarian territory. In that district, former State Sen. Chris Edwards, who graduated from Oregon State University in the latter college town and runs his family's forestry products business, prevailed out of a crowded Democratic field and will give Skarlatos a formidable matchup in November. In two other districts stretching from Portland's southern suburbs and exurbs to as far south as Salem and Bend, Democrats also selected candidates with progressive attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner drawing a rematch against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the equally competitive Clackamas-to-Bend 5th District and freshman Rep. Mike Erickson defending his Tualatin-to-Salem 6th District against businessman Cody Reynolds, who finished a distant third for the same district's Democratic primary in 2022. The biggest race of the night, though, was in the heavily Democratic 3rd District connecting most of Portland east of the Willamette River to as far east as Hood River and south as rural Clackamas County. In that district, progressive former Portland City Council member Steve Novick - known for his short, 4'9" stature and hook in lieu of a left hand (hence his slogan "The Fighter with the Hard Left Hook") - emerged out of a crowded Democratic field of over a dozen candidates to win his primary that represents the "real" contest in the heavily progressive district being vacated by retiring Democrat Earl Blumenauer, even though Novick himself will have a nominal Republican opponent in November.

In Kentucky, voters in the predominantly rural, working-class 5th District that connects historically Republican southern Kentucky to eastern Kentucky's "Coal Country" (once a rural Democratic stronghold that moved rightward in recent years) selected their nominee to succeed retiring 22-term Republican Hal Rogers, picking State Sen. Brandon Smith out of a crowded GOP field to take on Democratic former State Rep. Angie Hatton, who lost her historically Democratic district in Pike County despite holding the title of State House Minority Whip at the time of her 2022 defeat, while Republicans in the Louisville-based 3rd District nominated Louisville Metro Council member Kevin Kramer to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Morgan McGarvey. And in Idaho's 2nd District connecting eastern Idaho to most of the city of Boise, conservative attorney and two-time candidate Bryan Smith makes the third time a charm, winning the GOP nomination to become the favorite to succeed retiring incumbent Mike Simpson, who Smith lost to in 2014 and 2022 despite earning just under 40 percent of the vote in both elections. Arkansas also held its general primary elections on Tuesday, with all of its four GOP incumbents renominated and favored to win reelection in November including French Hill from the Little Rock-based 2nd District, who avoided a vigorous primary challenge unlike in 2022 when he faced a competitive challenger from his right.
Logged
PRESIDENT STANTON II
Rookie
**
Posts: 68
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: June 22, 2022, 04:23:32 AM »

Interesting
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: June 23, 2022, 02:05:02 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 02:14:12 AM by SaintStan86 »

Fast forward to the weekend, as Georgia's general primary and Texas's primary runoff looms...

May 25, 2024
GREENE (BARELY) OVER 40 PERCENT IN GEORGIA AS KEY NAMES SPLIT IN TEXAS SENATE RUNOFFS
A new poll showing firebrand GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene slightly over 40 percent in her northwest Georgia-based 14th District has cast new doubt into whether or not her outsized personality and weight amongst the far right of the Republican Party will translate into winning the GOP nomination in pursuit of a third term in Congress. Despite winning 69.5 percent of the vote in her 2022 primary run, fending off a number of GOP challengers in the process, Greene may have alienated a sizable number of conservatives in her district due to her penchant for controversy but most especially her entertaining the possibility of serving as a running mate for MyPillow kingpin Mike Lindell, who is now running for President under the Constitution Party banner after failing to gain any traction in the Republican presidential primary, as well as actually flirting with the possibility of running for reelection under the Constitution Party banner. This has resulted in two vigorous primary challengers in the GOP primary, with a new poll showing Greene with 42 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for her 2020 primary runoff opponent, neurosurgeon John Cowan (who has been endorsed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp) and 20 percent for former GOP spox Andrea Saul, who most recently worked as a Vice President of Global Communications for Meta's Instagram division but may best be remembered for her work as the chief spokesperson for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.

If Greene were to accept Lindell's invitation to serve as his running mate, it would not prevent her from running for reelection to Congress, but it would draw qualms from some Republicans who would prefer their member of Congress focus on their interests instead of "chasing a pipe dream", that "pipe dream" being a third-party presidential run. However, Greene has reiterated that her focus is on running for reelection as a Republican to her congressional seat, and cited near-unified support from conservatives for her reelection bid, "No one has fought harder for America First and for conservatives than I have, and the overwhelming support I have for my reelection shows".

Meanwhile, the runoff for the open Senate seat of Ted Cruz in Texas has generated another split beyond the expected newspaper endorsement split between the Houston Chronicle's endorsement of locally-based U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw and his Dallas-based rival and fellow U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden's endorsement by The Dallas Morning News. Crenshaw received the endorsement of former Ambassador Nikki Haley and former U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (who served as the permanent representative to NATO under former President Donald Trump), both endorsements that further strengthen Crenshaw's support from foreign policy hawks, while Gooden received the endorsements of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (who worked with Gooden during the latter's time in the Texas House of Representatives) and conservative activist Michael Quinn Sullivan (who had been critical of what he described as "a middling tenure in Austin but has since become a stalwart conservative in Washington"). The Texas airwaves have also been dominated by numerous negative and defensive ads between the two candidates, with Crenshaw accusing Gooden of "shortchanging our military at the worst possible time" and Gooden blasting Crenshaw for "continuing to put other countries first when fellow Texans are still struggling with Bidenflation". However, the most recent Trafalgar Group poll puts Crenshaw up by 9 points, though Gooden has pointed to several polls that put his campaign "within the margin of error".

The Democratic runoff between former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro and retired astronaut Scott Kelly has also dominated the Texas airwaves as well, with a major focus being on gun control. On that issue, Castro touted his efforts to curb gun violence as Mayor of San Antonio as well as during his time in the Obama administration, and boasted in a recent debate that his leadership on the issue would not only bring Hispanic voters (particularly those from border counties who shifted dramatically towards the GOP in recent years) back to the Democratic Party, but also would have saved Kelly's sister-in-law, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona (who was critically wounded and partially disabled following a mass shooting at a constituent meeting in her suburban Tucson congressional district in 2011), from getting shot. This did not sit well with Kelly, who responded "Voters at the border, in fact voters all across Texas don't think of what my opponent championed when it comes to ending gun violence, they think of El Paso and Uvalde, where Hispanic families and children were targeted based on their race", and slammed Castro for "taking advantage of my brother's and in-laws' suffering to hide from the fact that his campaign will not defeat whichever NRA apologist wins the GOP nomination". While the winner of Tuesday's Democratic runoff is likely to be an underdog in a state where Ron DeSantis has opened up a 10-point lead on Kamala Harris, Democrats are hoping that "optimistic polling that has Democrats outperforming Harris downballot" will be a boon to their side in November.

Fast forward to Tuesday...where voters in Texas and Georgia have spoken and the chips have already fallen...

May 28, 2024
CRENSHAW DEFEATS GOODEN, WILL FACE CASTRO IN NOVEMBER
U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw won a contentious Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by two-term incumbent and presidential candidate Ted Cruz on Tuesday night, defeating fellow U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden with over 55 percent of the vote. Speaking before an audience in The Woodlands, north of Houston, Crenshaw declared "Tonight, the Republicans of Texas made clear who they would like to see serving our interests in the Senate, and they voted for strong leadership both at home and abroad, that inspires and lights the fire in each of us". Crenshaw's strongest support, of course, came in the Houston area for which he represents the area's northern suburbs including the aforementioned planned community of The Woodlands, as well as Kingwood and Spring (home to the headquarters of ExxonMobil), winning upwards of 60 percent of the vote in vote-rich, heavily Republican Montgomery County. Crenshaw also racked up sizable margins with Latino voters both in border counties and in the major urban cores, a move further highlighted by Crenshaw's past upbringing in Ecuador and Colombia and fluent Spanish (with Crenshaw even appearing, and communicating, in Spanish-language ads himself) as well as his stepmother, whom Crenshaw's father married after his mother died of cancer in his childhood, being Hispanic herself.

Gooden, meanwhile performed most strongly in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, winning just over 60 percent in Collin County and in his 5th District, which stretches from northeast Dallas to several exurban and rural counties east of the city, and also outperformed Crenshaw in west Texas, winning Amarillo and Lubbock among other areas, along with several counties along the Red River border with Oklahoma and every congressional district in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. However, Crenshaw's strong performance in the aforementioned border counties, as well as in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and in areas near Houston such as Beaumont and Corpus Christi, was too much for Gooden to overcome. Despite a campaign that at times was bitter and hostile, at his watch party at the Hilton Anatole north of downtown Dallas, Gooden congratulated Crenshaw and thanked his supporters for running "the most effective and hardworking grassroots campaign Texans have ever seen", urging his supporters to "get behind Dan Crenshaw and help him defeat the radical leftist machine that will further destroy Texas and America, and grind it into the mushy paste that Venezuela has been reduced to. We can't let that happen".

The aforementioned I-35 corridor also proved to be the ace in the hole for former San Antonio Mayor and HUD Secretary Julián Castro in his even narrower victory in the Democratic runoff for the same Senate seat, winning 52 percent of the vote to just over 47 percent for his rival, retired astronaut Scott Kelly, whose strong performance in the Dallas and Houston areas as well as in rural west and east Texas could not overcome Castro's edge in heavily Hispanic areas across the state (both in urban Texas and along the Rio Grande) and in his hometown of San Antonio. "Tonight, the people of Texas have spoken loud and clear who the right choice for the Senate should be, and as your next U.S. Senator for this great state, we are going to make history!", Castro declared to a jubilant crowd at the Marriott Rivercenter hotel in San Antonio as the results from early voting showed Castro with a sizable lead. Meanwhile, as the night wore on Kelly, speaking before his watch party at the South Shore Harbour Resort & Conference Center in League City (outside Houston and near the Johnson Space Center), thanked his supporters while also throwing his support behind Castro and "vowing to do everything it takes to defeat Ron DeSantis and Dan Crenshaw, and send the Republicans packing this November".

May 28, 2024
TEXAS VOTERS DECIDE RUNOFFS FOR CRUCIAL CONGRESSIONAL RACES; GREENE SURVIVES IN GEORGIA
Tuesday's high-profile Senate runoffs were far from the only races on the ballot in Texas Tuesday night, as several congressional runoffs were also decided in districts, some of which were radically altered after a court-ordered redistricting forced changes. The most significant battle was in the north suburban Houston-based 36th District (formerly the 2nd District) being vacated by now-Republican U.S. Senate nominee Dan Crenshaw, where Republican strategist and former Crenshaw adviser Matthew Wiltshire won a contentious GOP runoff against former Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector and Houston City Council member Mike Sullivan in a race that went well beyond the generation gap as the millennial Wiltshire (a former national committeeman for the Texas Young Republicans) attacked the baby boomer Sullivan for being "disconnected from reality in regards to America First and our economic futures" with regards to Sullivan's recent public affairs work with Group 1 Automotive, a leading Houston-based owner of automotive dealerships that has butted heads with Elon Musk's Tesla over direct sales of automobiles, while Sullivan blasted Wiltshire for "carrying the water of establishment Republicans" and also made references to Pace picante sauce in a jab at Wiltshire's upbringing in the New York City suburbs.

However, Wiltshire benefited from his endorsement by Crenshaw as well as from Harris County Judge Alexandra Mealer and the President of The Woodlands Township, Gordy Bunch, all of which held valuable street cred with younger Republicans throughout the predominantly suburban district, and overcame Sullivan's endorsements from various legacy Republicans in Harris and Montgomery counties, including venerable conservative power brokers Steven Hotze and Gary Polland, as well as State Sen. Paul Bettencourt (who held the same position Sullivan held for four years before losing it in 2016 as Donald Trump's poor performance in Harris County doomed Republicans countywide). Wiltshire won 52 percent to Sullivan's 47 percent, and is now a strong favorite against Democratic nonprofit executive Abby Whitmire in November as the district (which connects the prosperous, solidly GOP master-planned communities of The Woodlands and Kingwood, the latter itself part of the city of Houston) voted 2-1 for Donald Trump in 2020.

Crenshaw's district wasn't the only Houston area congressional district where a runoff was decided Tuesday. In the 7th District, now reconfigured as a west and southwest Houston swing district after previously being shifted into a Democratic stronghold the previous cycle by the Texas Legislature (in a gerrymander criticized not only by Democrats but also by some conservatives who derided the previous redistricting as a "wussymander"), Bush family scion Pierce Bush, grandson of the former President George H.W. Bush who once held the district decades ago, won a competitive primary against former Houston City Council member Greg Travis with 55 percent of the vote and will take on three-term incumbent Lizzie Fletcher, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the upcoming election, in November. The runoff for an open Democratic seat in southwest Houston was also decided as former Houston City Council member Edward Pollard (who was forced to resign his position by law) edged out State Rep. Shawn Thierry for the Democratic nomination in the 25th District (formerly the 9th) vacated by retiring Rep. Al Green, a victory tantamount to election in the overwhelmingly Democratic, Black-Hispanic coalition district that connects across southwest and southern portions of Houston including neighborhoods surrounding the Texas Medical Center.

In the suburbs south of Houston, the 9th District (nominally the old 14th) in Houston's southeast suburbs anchored in heavily Republican Galveston County saw State Sen. Mayes Middleton benefit from endorsements by Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence, as well as from the conservative Texas Scorecard news organization run by Michael Quinn Sullivan, which helped Middleton to overcome a fierce challenge from Galveston County Judge Mark Henry by a 56-43 margin; Middleton will be heavily favored to win the open, heavily Republican district that stretches from Galveston to southeast and eastern suburbs of Houston including Clear Lake City (home to the Johnson Space Center, and also technically part of Houston itself). And in the nearby 14th District from Houston's southern suburbs (Sugar Land, Missouri City, Pearland, Lake Jackson) to several rural counties west of the city, where Republican Randy Weber is retiring, in somewhat of an upset former Sugar Land City Council member and attorney Himesh Gandhi narrowly defeated Brazoria County Judge Matt Sebesta in a race where Gandhi benefited from endorsements by U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls (whose 22nd District was previously anchored in Gandhi's home Fort Bend County) and Nehls' predecessor, Pete Olson, and also benefited from winning a higher percentage in the Fort Bend County portion of the district than Sebesta in his Brazoria County one (overcoming Sebesta's endorsement by Weber and his 60+ percent vote totals from the district's rural counties. While Gandhi prevailed by a 51-48 margin, he will be favored to win the 60-40 Trump district and is likely to become Texas's first Asian-American member of Congress.

The Houston area wasn't the only part of Texas that saw big runoff action on Tuesday night. In the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the restoration of the 32nd District into its previous configuration as a traditionally Republican, Trump-skeptical swing seat in north Dallas and immediate suburbs will set the stage for a competitive battle in November pitting conservative former Dallas County GOP Chairman Phillip Huffines, a wealthy businessman from the prominent Huffines family (Huffines' twin brother, Don, is a former State Senator who runs the Huffines Liberty Foundation), against three-term Democratic incumbent Colin Allred. Huffines won the GOP nod against moderate State Rep. Morgan Meyer with 56 percent of the vote, and is set to make the race one of the most expensive congressional races in the nation. Two other notable runoffs in the Metroplex, in contrast, are not likely to result in competitive November races. In the 5th District connecting eastern suburbs of Dallas and surrounding rural counties (vacated by Lance Gooden who lost the U.S. Senate runoff earlier tonight to Crenshaw), former U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe is all but set to return to Congress as the one-time Director of National Intelligence in Trump's final year as President won over 60 percent of the vote over State Rep. Cody Harris in tonight's GOP runoff and will be heavily favored to win in November. And in the 24th District, now a favorably Democratic, majority Hispanic district in downtown and west Dallas and immediate Dallas County suburbs, Dallas County Commissioner Elba Garcia fended off a strong challenge from former Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board trustee Candace Valenzuela (who lost this same district in 2020 to Republican Beth Van Duyne who is now seeking reelection in the newly redrawn 12th District) to win the Democratic runoff for this district.

Four other districts tied into the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin also saw runoff action Tuesday and also had their November contests set in stone. In the Laredo-based 28th District that stretches to south San Antonio, Cassy Garcia will be back for another run as the GOP nominee for what is now an open seat as incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar retired; Democrats nominated progressive Jessica Cisneros as their nominee in what is expected to be a top race to watch this year. Two other districts are all but set to send respective nominees to Congress in November from districts that heavily favor them, with former NFL long snapper and businessman Cullen Loeffler defeating conservative State Rep. Kyle Biedermann in the Republican primary to succeed former U.S. Senate candidate Chip Roy in the heavily Republican 21st District connecting north San Antonio to much of the Texas Hill Country - a district once held by Loeffler's father Tom Loeffler from 1979 to 1987, while Austin City Council member Kathie Tovo prevailed in her runoff for the heavily Democratic, Austin-based 37th District being vacated by the venerable Lloyd Doggett. And while Democrats insist they may have an outside shot in the 31st District connecting Austin's northern suburbs to the vicinity of Killeen and Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood), former State Rep. Dan Gattis is favored to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. John Carter after defeating State Rep. Brad Buckley in a close runoff.

While Texas did have the lion's share of the evening's competitive House races, it was not alone on the calendar. In Georgia, conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene narrowly avoided a runoff in the heavily Republican 14th District, based in the northwest Atlanta exurbs and northwest Georgia, against two high-profile challengers in 2020 runoff foe John Cowan and former 2012 Romney presidential campaign spokesperson Andrea Saul as Greene is flirting with a potential vice presidential bid - as the running mate to Constitution Party candidate Mike Lindell. Meanwhile, in the south suburban Atlanta-based 13th District where longtime Democrat David Scott is retiring, State Rep. and former Georgia Bulldogs football player Demetrius Douglas will go to a runoff against Clayton County Board of Commissioners Chairman Jeff Turner on June 25th, with the winner set to become the overwhelming favorite in the heavily Democratic, majority Black district. And in the Black-White coalition 2nd District in southwest Georgia, where freshman Rep. Chris West narrowly defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop in a shocking upset, Democrats will also host a runoff on June 25th between State House Minority Leader James Beverly and former Columbus Mayor and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Teresa Tomlinson, with the winner expected to run a vigorous general election campaign against West who is being targeted by the DCCC.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: June 23, 2022, 07:45:32 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 08:09:58 PM by SaintStan86 »

UPDATE: Based on the results of last Tuesday IRL, here is what the picture is looking like and what the TL will portend...
  • In Alabama, Katie Britt easily beat Mo Brooks primarily on the backs of voters in and around Mobile and Montgomery, as well as in the heavily "redneck" north central Alabama backwoods between the Birmingham and Huntsville areas that represented Brooks's strongest areas. And while much can be said about Trump's switch from Brooks to Britt, even though most stalwart conservatives stuck with Brooks, Britt did well enough in the first round that her victory in the runoff on Tuesday was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Being the younger, "hipper" candidate - a mother who graduated from the University of Alabama with actual pre-teen children and who married a former Crimson Tide football player who had some time in the NFL with Tom Brady and the Patriots (though not winning a ring unfortunately, thanks to Eli Manning and David Tyree) - also helped Britt. She is going to defeat Will Boyd in November and will have done so in this TL, and will serve as Alabama's first female Senator.
  • As I predicted, Brooks will be succeeded by Dale Strong in the Huntsville-based 5th District. And while Jerry Carl (1st/Mobile), Barry Moore (2nd/Montgomery suburbs) and Mike Rogers (3rd/eastern Alabama) are all coasting to reelection in November, in this TL I still predict that Rogers is going to retire and Carl and Moore will be drawn into a new 1st connecting the Republican and country club parts of Mobile to the Wiregrass, as the 2nd will be redrawn after the election into a Black Belt district where the Democrat is favored...see below in the newest post on this TL.
  • Virginia's House races are now set in a year with no Senate or gubernatorial race on the ballot. In this TL, State Sen., nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot Jen Kiggans will have defeated Rep. Elaine Luria in the Virginia Beach-based 2nd District, Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega will have defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the exurban Northern Virginia 7th District, and Rep. Jennifer Wexton will have fended off retired naval officer and Vietnamese refugee Hung Cao in the Northern Virginia-based 10th District anchored in Loudoun County.
  • Donald Trump lost big again in Georgia, this time at the congressional level as Rich McCormick trounced Trump's endorsed pick Jake Evans in the north suburban Atlanta 6th District that has been made more Republican in redistricting, which forced Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath to move east to Gwinnett County and the 7th District (where McBath as we all know defeated freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux). His higher-profile pick in the 10th District from Atlanta's eastern exurbs out to Athens and the Augusta exurbs, Vernon Jones, fared even worse as he lost 3 to 1 to Mike Collins. Trump's poor performance in the big Georgia races may pretty much portend his actual fate for 2024, since Georgians pretty much would wash his mouth out with soap and water...
  • Muriel Bowser will be the Mayor of Washington, D.C. once again, after winning 50 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. Unopposed Republican primary winner Stacia Hall is the sitting Republican duck awaiting her.

Back to the TL now...

May 30, 2024
CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS SOUND ALARM OVER PROSPECT OF RARE SHUTOUT IN SENATE RACE; TRUMP ENDORSES GRENELL OVER McCARTHY
With less than a week to go in California's all-partisan Senate primary to succeed retiring Democrat Dianne Feinstein, the picture could not be any more dire for Democrats. Despite having a sizable advantage in party registration, Democrats have struggled to unite behind a clear choice to succeed Feinstein who along with Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state's other U.S. Sen., Alex Padilla (as well as the state Democratic Party itself), have chosen not to endorse a candidate. That could set up the Democrats for one of the most embarrassing outcomes of the 2024 election, if not all elections in the history of California: not having a single candidate reach the top two for November with both of the spots taken by Republicans.

In the most recent poll taken by the Los Angeles Times, where Democrats hold a 3-2 advantage in total polling not unlike their actual edge in statewide elections (Newsom having been reelected by a 56-43 margin in 2022), Speaker Kevin McCarthy has amassed 19 percent of the vote and holds a modest but clear lead for the entire field. The real battle, however, is for second place, with Donald Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell in a battle with Democratic U.S. Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff for second place; Grenell has 14 percent compared to 13 percent for Porter and 11 percent for Schiff. Four other Democrats - former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (7 percent) and U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell (also 7 percent), Raul Ruiz (5 percent) and Jared Huffman (4 percent) trail even further with other Democrats getting 6 percent, other Republicans getting 2 percent, and 10 percent of voters undecided.

While McCarthy started out with a commanding lead among Republicans, Grenell has closed the gap by appealing to conservatives and Trump supporters, while Porter (who initially started out as the runaway leader among Democrats) has seen her numbers slip in the face of competition from fellow progressives Swalwell and Huffman (whose combined support in the San Francisco Bay Area has made it difficult for Porter to make inroads beyond Southern California, where Schiff leads among Democrats). Bustamante has mostly fared well in the Central Valley region, while Ruiz has a niche among Hispanic voters in the Los Angeles area as well as in his Inland Empire base. Overall, 15 Democrats and six Republicans, as well as 3 independents and five third-party candidates, have filed to run in the open primary.

This has prompted Porter to call on her rivals Swalwell and Huffman to drop out of the race and endorse her, in hopes of uniting a clear Democratic choice to secure a top two place and avoid an embarrassing shutout. However, Swalwell has rebuffed Porter's offer, "California Democrats deserve a bold champion for progressive causes, and Porter's acquiescence to corporate interests is proof that she is the wrong choice to succeed Dianne Feinstein", and also pointed to his own polling showing him in contention for second place. Meanwhile, Schiff has pointed to his own internal polling showing a second place finish on Tuesday: "As the only Democrat endorsed by every major California newspaper, I am confident that we will prevail as the only Democrat standing after Tuesday, and the only one who will stop Kevin McCarthy from getting an undeserved job promotion to the Senate". McCarthy, meanwhile, pointed to his lead as "proof that voters in California have had enough of liberals like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris destroying their state and leaving its residents poorer and more destitute than ever before" and argued that "Tuesday will mark the beginning of the end of the Democrats' fading blue utopia that has been anything but paradise".

Nonetheless, Grenell gained even further momentum on Thursday when he received the endorsement of former President Trump who called Grenell "a strong and powerful America First warrior who stood up to China and the European elitists destroying Europe's culture and values" and "TOUGH on borders, crime and reckless spending!", while also calling McCarthy "a huge disappointment who has done more for the same America Last Republicans who accomplished nothing for the American people", and even referred to McCarthy as "a poor man's Paul Ryan". Grenell touted the endorsement, "As the only candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, I am confident that we will put California first again, not last, with a proven conservative who worked with Donald Trump and will never disappoint you!", while stopping sort of directly attacking McCarthy as Grenell hopes to build on recent momentum that surged his campaign from fifth to second in two months' time, and potentially deal a fatal blow to Democrats on Tuesday in their quest to maintain the seat - and any chance of winning back the majority in the Senate. California voters will also decide on congressional nominees in the state's 52 congressional seats, with multiple open seats and other battleground districts on the line, along with the conclusion of a special election to fill the San Francisco-based 11th District of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi who resigned at the end of 2023; controversial former District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was recalled in 2022 in the wake of a national crime wave that negatively affected San Francisco, will face off against San Francisco Supervisor Catherine Stefani (whose constituents include Pelosi) for the unexpired term, both having respectively placed first and second in a special nonpartisan primary held last April.

May 31, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES CAWTHORN AS DEM PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR BECOMES PROXY WAR
Former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn earned the endorsement of former President Donald Trump on Friday, as he seeks to reclaim his old congressional seat in western North Carolina's 11th District, two years after losing it to then-State Senator Chuck Edwards in the Republican primary. After receiving Trump's endorsement, Cawthorn touted the endorsement as "proof that voters in western North Carolina have had enough of the uber-woke, America Last leadership of Chuck Edwards and his establishment cronies who have done nothing to help working families and patriots here". Edwards, however, fired back at Cawthorn's endorsement: "Donald Trump is no longer running for President and his endorsement power isn't as strong as it used to be, and his decision to endorse the same failed Congressman who failed to deliver for his constituents shows why". Edwards also pointed to numerous endorsements from other Republicans throughout the Asheville-based district, as well as recent endorsements from local police and firefighters and internal polling showing him with enough polling to avoid a runoff.

The 11th District race is far from the only race of note on Tuesday in the Tar Heel State, as voters will also decide nominees in the 5th District where longtime Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx is retiring, along with a few other notable congressional primaries and a crucial gubernatorial race to succeed term-limited Democrat and former presidential hopeful Roy Cooper. While Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is a shoo-in for the GOP nomination, the Democratic primary has evolved into a battle between state Attorney General Josh Stein and former U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler. Stein has touted endorsements from more liberal Democrats such as U.S. Reps. Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning, while Shuler has been backed by more moderate Democrats such as U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson. Despite Shuler's appearance at the launch of Gov. Cooper's presidential campaign last year, Cooper has not endorsed a candidate in the race, but reiterated that "when the dust settles, the winner of the Democratic primary will get my total endorsement for November". However, Cooper's indecision has triggered a war between activist liberals more intent on nominating Stein as the Democratic nominee and more moderate Democrats who favor Shuler as "the only candidate who can win North Carolina in November"; "If Democrats are to hold on to the Governor's Mansion in November and not lose it to a Donald Trump clone, the last thing we need is a candidate who has more trust from radical leftists in New York City than the hard working men and women of North Carolina", said Shuler during a rally in High Point on Friday.

Robinson, who hopes to become North Carolina's first African-American Governor, has more or less consolidated the Republican vote behind him, after former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker (who at one point considered running for Governor) was instead steered to the 8th District by several top advisers as well as Trump; the new 8th covers some parts of the Piedmont Triad region that were previously represented by Walker, in addition to Rockingham and parts of Fayetteville including Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg). The 8th became open after its Republican incumbent, Rep. Richard Hudson, decided to seek reelection in the 9th District in Charlotte's eastern suburbs (an area he previously represented for his first five terms in Congress) after redistricting made the previously Democratic-leaning 14th District (now anchored in Charlotte's western suburbs as well as a southern sliver of the city itself and the western corner of neighboring Union County) more palatable to Republicans, prompting the 9th's incumbent Congressman, Rep. Dan Bishop, to run for reelection there; Walker also faces State Sen. Dave Craven and several other candidates in Tuesday's Republican primary for the 8th. Republicans will also be challenging Democratic incumbents Don Davis in the Rocky Mount-based 1st District and Kathy Manning in the Greensboro-based 6th District, while Democrats will be targeting the 8th as well as the south suburban Raleigh-based 13th District of conservative GOP freshman Bo Hines. The 14th's incumbent Democratic Congressman, freshman Rep. Jeff Jackson, is now running in the Black-White coalition 12th District that contains almost all of Charlotte (and where its incumbent Democrat, Rep. Alma Adams, is retiring).

June 2, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES IN NEW JERSEY GOP SHOWDOWN; AL SHARPTON, CHARLES BARKLEY FEUD OVER DUELING ALABAMA CANDIDATES
On Sunday, former President Donald Trump continued his swing of endorsements across the country in the run up to Tuesday's large slate of congressional primaries with 99 districts, including 52 in California, on the line along with multiple Senate races and two gubernatorial races - one far more important than the other. In New Jersey's heavily Republican 4th District where 22-term incumbent Chris Smith is retiring, Trump endorsed conservative TV commentator Mike Crispi, whose primary employer, Right Side Broadcasting Network, is known for its wall-to-wall coverage of Trump rallies and steadfast editorial defense of the former President. "Mike Crispi is a strong and relentless America First Warrior who will never let down the people of the Jersey Shore - the real one, NOT the TV show!", Trump proclaimed in his endorsement through his Save America PAC. Crispi, who unsuccessfully challenged Smith from the right in 2022 with TV appearances on Fox News and other networks, is far from the only candidate in a race that also includes evangelist and consultant Shawn Hyland, Toms River Mayor Mo Hill, and State Assemblywoman Vicky Flynn, who has been endorsed by Smith. Crispi has stressed the importance of "electing a strong conservative to the most Republican district in all of New Jersey", and has called out Flynn as being "part of the Trenton swamp".

Republicans are also looking to hold onto the 7th District stretching from Union County to the Skylands west of New York City, held by freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., in Tuesday's election, while also targeting vulnerable Democrats Andy Kim in the Burlington County-anchored 3rd District and Josh Gottheimer in the 5th District stretching across most of Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties, as well as the open, Morris and west Essex County-based 11th District of Mikie Sherrill (who is running a competitive primary challenge against embattled Sen. Bob Menendez). With Donald Trump no longer on the ballot and the tax deduction shock that spooked New Jersey Republicans following the former President's tax cut package in 2017 now in the rearview mirror, Democrats face the prospect of seriously losing as many as three members of Congress in addition to failing to gain back the two seats it lost since 2018 (including the Atlantic City-based 2nd District where its own Rep. Jeff Van Drew switched to the GOP after voting against impeaching Trump in his first impeachment trial).

Alabama is another source of contention with days to go before their congressional primaries, but in this case affecting the Democrats who are favored (though not overwhelmingly) to win the newly redrawn 2nd District, now stretching from the state capital of Montgomery to Mobile following a court-ordered redistricting ordered after the 2022 elections. On Friday, Rev. Al Sharpton, speaking on behalf of the National Action Network, appeared in Montgomery with University of Alabama constitutional law professor Bryan Fair, who chairs the Board of Directors for the Southern Poverty Law Center and is among the leading Democrats running for the newly drawn district. "In this new district centered in the heart of the Black Belt of Dixie, it is important that we send a true advocate for justice to Congress". However, Fair's overall liberal agenda and the fact that he moved from Tuscaloosa (where he is a visiting professor at the University of Alabama) has become cannon fodder for another leading Democrat, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher, who is endorsed by much of the Alabama Democratic establishment as well as one particular celebrity of note to Alabamians with an outsized reputation for being outspoken.

Following last Sunday's broadcast of Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals on TNT, NBA on TNT analyst and Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley threw his support behind Hatcher during a discussion about "how he spent Memorial Day weekend", in which Barkley reportedly telephoned Hatcher to express his support. "I think he has a great background, taught English, has a divinity degree, seems like the total package, like picking the No. 1 pick in the (NBA) Draft", Barkley opined. The former Auburn standout also apparently took a jab at Fair's ties to his alma mater's most hated rival, "No offense to his opponent, but this part of Alabama screams 'War Eagle'...You can't really represent if your resume screams 'Roll Tide'". Not surprisingly, the social media reaction wasn't exactly charitable not only from Fair supporters ("Uncle Charles strikes again for the token corporate king!", in an apparent dig at Hatcher's support from business-oriented groups during his time in the Legislature) but also from fans of the Crimson Tide ("More choice words from someone who will NEVER win a ring anywhere in anything!").

That prompted Sharpton to respond on his MSNBC show PoliticsNation on Monday: "If Charles Barkley thinks he can speak for Black America, he is wrong since almost every time he speaks out politically, it's for the candidate that's the least focused on justice, on helping his fellow man. If he was willing to go to bat for a token White Democrat like Doug Jones but not for someone who can really fight for all Alabamians, then he's just another washed up ball boy who sold himself to the highest bidder". Barkley responded on Twitter through Hatcher's campaign to Sharpton: "I'm from Alabama, @TheRevAl. You never had to live through Jim Crow, but my family did. This is a different world from your Brooklyn bubble and always was.", in an apparent dig at Sharpton's New York City roots and surroundings. Sharpton then responded the following Wednesday by blasting CNN (whose parent company Warner Bros. Discovery also owns TNT) as "having sold out to faceless corporate cowards who give Charles Barkley a platform to divide brothers", which in part triggered Sharpton's aforementioned trip on Friday to support Fair. While Republicans are targeting the district, which Trump lost by only single digits in both 2016 and 2020, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win the newly redrawn 2nd in November.
Logged
The Pieman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,410
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: June 28, 2022, 11:04:56 PM »

I love the updates on the primaries, its one of my favourite parts of this.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: June 29, 2022, 03:41:40 AM »

It's a mild Sunday evening - June 2nd - in the Caribbean, and the last territory outstanding is making their caucus calls...

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Democrats in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be pledged to candidates based on tonight's results, with six pledged delegates to be doled out.

Territorywide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 81.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 18.51 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2082 delegates +6 from the U.S. Virgin Islands
Elizabeth Warren - 804 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

The U.S. Virgin Islands may as well be Harris's strongest turf in the primary thus far, if only because she is not only the presumptive Democratic nominee, but also the only one who can qualify for delegates remaining. There are two Democrats who for some reason remain "active", except their support is absolutely minimal (as in 0.001 percent nationwide).

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Nine delegates will be awarded to qualifying candidates in tonight's closed caucuses in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Only registered Republicans can participate, and individual delegates are elected with their presidential preference indicated or uncommitted. The three party leaders will attend the Republican National Convention as unbound delegates.

Territorywide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 74.52 percent (6 delegates)
Candace Owens - 5.51 percent
(Remaining 19.97 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1399 delegates +6 from the U.S. Virgin Islands
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates +3 from Oregon
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Not surprisingly, DeSantis wins all six delegates as virtually all of the delegates running indicated their support for the Florida Governor.

Fast forward to Tuesday night. California has a crucial Senate race where the prospects for one candidate are certain and those of one particular party are uncertain, but critical Senate battles also persist in New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico and Mississippi. All of these states, along with North Carolina, Alabama, Iowa and South Dakota, are holding congressional primaries, and North Carolina and Montana also have gubernatorial contests to watch as well. It is now 8 p.m. in New Jersey...

NEW JERSEY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

107 pledged delegates will be awarded tonight across the Garden State. In an unusual move, 70 of these delegates will be awarded by "delegate districts" consisting of two of the state's 40 legislative districts paired together; these LDs each elect two members of the state General Assembly and one member of the state Senate. The Democratic delegate formula (e.g. 15 percent threshold, etc.) remains the same. (Editor's note: These delegate districts are speculative, and based on my projected pairings for 2024 given the changed geographic nature - and in one case, an old delegate district split in two - of the new map.)

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 80.02 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 19.98 percent went to other candidates, including 13.01 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
Delegate District 1 (3 delegates)
LD01/Cape May, Estell Manor & Vineland
LD03/Salem, West Deptford & Shiloh:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 2 (3 delegates)
LD02/Atlantic City, Port Republic & Weymouth
LD09/Barnegat, Berkeley & Lakehurst:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 3 (4 delegates)
LD04/Washington Township, Gloucester & Buena
LD05/Camden, Deptford & Pennsauken:

Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 4 (5 delegates)
LD06/Cherry Hill, Voorhees & Maple Shade
LD07/Burlington, Mount Laurel & Bordentown:

Kamala Harris 5
Delegate District 5 (3 delegates)
LD08/Mount Holly, Hammonton & Medford
LD12/Old Bridge, Jackson Township & Manalapan:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 6 (2 delegates)
LD10/Toms River, Point Pleasant & Spring Lake
LD30/Lakewood, Wall & Howell:

Kamala Harris 2
Delegate District 7 (4 delegates)
LD11/Long Branch, Freehold & Eatontown
LD13/Middletown, West Long Branch & Marlboro:

Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 8 (4 delegates)
LD14/Hamilton, Monroe & Plainsboro
LD15/Trenton, West Windsor & Frenchtown:

Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 9 (4 delegates)
LD16/Princeton, Hillsborough & Flemington
LD17/New Brunswick, Franklin Township & Piscataway:

Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 10 (3 delegates)
LD18/Metuchen, East Brunswick & South Plainfield
LD19/Perth Amboy, Sayreville & Carteret:

Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 11 (3 delegates)
LD20/Elizabeth & Union
LD22/Plainfield, Linden & Cranford:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 12 (4 delegates)
LD21/Westfield, Bernardsville & Chatham
LD23/Hackettstown, Somerville & Phillipsburg:

Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 13 (4 delegates)
LD24/Vernon, Mount Olive & Newton
LD25/Morristown, West Milford & Rockaway Township:

Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 14 (4 delegates)
LD26/Parsippany, Ringwood & Florham Park
LD40/Wayne, West Caldwell & Wyckoff:

Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 15 (3 delegates)
LD28/Newark (SW), South Orange & Hillside
LD29/Newark (majority) & Harrison:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 16 (3 delegates)
LD31/Jersey City (south half), Bayonne & Kearny
LD32/Jersey City (north half) & Hoboken:

Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 17 (3 delegates)
LD33/North Bergen, Weehawken & Secaucus
LD36/East Rutherford, Edgewater & Passaic:

Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 18 (4 delegates)
LD27/West Orange, Clifton & Short Hills
LD34/Bloomfield, Orange & Nutley:

Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 19 (3 delegates)
LD35/Paterson, Garfield & North Haledon
LD38/Paramus, Teterboro & Bergenfield:

Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 20 (4 delegates)
LD37/Hackensack, Fort Lee & Tenafly
LD39/Mahwah, Demarest & Saddle River:

Kamala Harris 4
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (14 delegates):
Kamala Harris 14
At-Large Delegates (23 delegates):
Kamala Harris 23

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2181 delegates +99 from New Jersey
Elizabeth Warren - 812 delegates +8 from New Jersey
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris continued to rack up delegates as expected in the last remaining big prize amongst states, but once again Warren's played spoiler winning one delegate each in eight of New Jersey's 20 "delegate districts", mostly concentrated in Trenton as well as in White working-class and deeply progressive areas of the state. In the other 12 "delegate districts", mostly in more affluent suburban areas, Harris swept the night.

NEW JERSEY
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

50 delegates, including 36 at the congressional level, will be awarded to the highest vote-getter in tonight's winner-take-all primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 85.52 percent (50 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.94 percent
(Remaining 10.54 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1449 delegates +50 from New Jersey
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis wins New Jersey's winner-take-all primary without much fanfare. Big whoop.

NEW MEXICO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Only registered Democrats can participate in tonight's closed primary where 29 pledged delegates, including 19 at the congressional level, will be delegated.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 68.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 31.51 percent went to other candidates, including 16.10 for Elizabeth Warren and 10.09 who voted Uncommitted)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD01/Albuquerque (east), Rio Rancho & Ruidoso (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
CD02/Albuquerque (west), Carlsbad & Las Cruces (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD03/Santa Fe, Roswell & Farmington (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2207 delegates +26 from New Mexico
Elizabeth Warren - 815 delegates +8 from New Mexico
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris dominated yet again, but once again sees drop-off in more progressive and working-class areas, only being able to sweep the least Hispanic district in the state (the 1st anchored in the more prosperous and White east side of Albuquerque). In fact, at least 15 percent of voters in more rural counties outside of the immediate Albuquerque metro area voted Uncommitted, casting further doubt as to whether or not Harris can win over constituencies other than cosmopolitan metro areas and African and Asian Americans.

NEW MEXICO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

22 delegates will be allocated to candidates based on results in tonight's proportional primary; candidates must reach at least 15 percent of the vote statewide to qualify.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 74.50 percent (22 delegates)
Candace Owens - 2.50 percent
(Remaining 23 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1471 delegates +22 from New Mexico
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis sweeps yet another state as none of the other (mostly dormant) candidates on the ballot even crossed 10 percent.

SOUTH DAKOTA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

14 pledged delegates will be awarded to candidates in tonight's Democratic primary.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 70.98 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 29.02 percent went to Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large CD/Sioux Falls, Rapid City & Pierre (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 3
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2218 delegates +11 from South Dakota
Elizabeth Warren - 818 delegates +3 from South Dakota
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris dominates another state as the presumptive nominee, but once again it's not unanimous as Warren won enough votes to win three delegates at the congressional level and crossed 35 percent in several counties.

SOUTH DAKOTA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

29 delegates will be awarded to the winner of tonight's winner-take-all presidential primary in South Dakota.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 81.44 percent (29 delegates)
Candace Owens - 4.03 percent
(Remaining 14.53 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1500 delegates +29 from South Dakota
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Not surprisingly for a state whose own Governor (Kristi Noem) drew numerous comparisons to him (and even outclassed him by not even issuing a single COVID-19 lockdown, versus the one he did acquiesce to in April of 2020), DeSantis dominated South Dakota.

MONTANA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Tonight's open primary in Montana will award 20 pledged delegates, including 13 from its congressional delegation - the first with more than one district since 1988.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 72.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 27.51 percent went to other candidates, including 16.20 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Missoula, Bozeman & Kalispell (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Billings, Helena & Glendive (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES (FINAL COUNT)
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 2237 delegates +19 from Montana
Elizabeth Warren - 819 delegates +1 from Montana
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

In a result similar to South Dakota, Harris won all but one of Montana's pledged delegates, with Warren winning one delegate out of the western-based 1st District, home to the liberal-leaning college towns as Missoula and Bozeman.

MONTANA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Tonight's winner-take-all presidential primary will award 31 delegates to the winner of Montana's presidential primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 79.79 percent (29 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.30 percent
(Remaining 16.91 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (FINAL COUNT, 1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1531 delegates +31 from Montana
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis won one final sweep in Montana, and while the result did have its expected single-digit numbers from "hardened voters of conscience", Montana proved to be the proverbial cherry on top.

And this, my friends, concludes the presidential primaries. (YAY!)
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: June 29, 2022, 06:52:09 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2022, 07:08:07 AM by SaintStan86 »

LATEST REAL-LIFE UPDATES:
Before I continue with updates from Tuesday's batch of important races across eight states, I would like to comment on the obvious water cooler topic that has dominated political conversation since this past weekend.

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling was pretty much expected to go the way it did, with the 5 conservative associate justices voting to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey rulings, the three liberal associate justices dissenting, and Chief Justice John Roberts - long the proverbial "swing vote" - concurring in the decision without necessarily agreeing with overturning Roe and Casey, adding that such restrictions on abortion should "extend far enough to ensure a reasonable opportunity to choose, but need not extend any further."

From a personal standpoint, abortion should essentially be "safe, legal and rare" in the sense that once a heartbeat is detected, abortion should not even be considered as an option; this is made possible because of advancements in medical technology since Roe that have made it easier for doctors to detect a heartbeat in a fetus. It is also fair to say that the Democratic platform has effectively shifted from "safe, legal and rare" to "abortion is healthcare", whereas the Republican consensus vacillates between "safe, legal and rare" and completely abolishing the practice - the latter of which is untenable given the equally divisive moral challenge of compelling mothers to keep babies to term that were conceived out of rape and incest, as well as to save the mother's life. Not to mention those conceived in human trafficking and smuggling cases, which is also noteworthy given the issue is rather significant where I am in Texas (specifically in Fort Bend County outside Houston) and especially given Monday's tragedy in San Antonio where dozens of smuggled migrants were found dead in the sweltering trailer of an 18-wheeler (even though this is not technically a sex trafficking case at all, but rather another casualty of the crisis at the border that is all but certain to sink Democrats in 2022 and perhaps President Biden as well in 2024).

Further, it will also put the onus on states to emphasize sex education that is medically accurate and emphasizes the biological nature of intercourse (because as the old saying goes, teenagers do stupid things), as opposed to the ping-pong battle between liberal states that emphasize a politically incorrect sort of sex ed (some directed at ages below the high school level) that is fair game in the current culture wars conservatives are waging at schools across America and conservative ones that favor an abstinence-only sex ed that has not necessarily been effective at curbing teenage pregnancy. Going back to the old adage that teenagers do stupid things, not knowing how to use a condom, falsely believing that wearing one "violates" one's tenets of faith, being inebriated to the point where one cannot recognize the consequences of unprotected sex (which also applies to the conversation surrounding STDs including AIDS), or not being knowledgeable in how human sexual intercourse involves the procreation of children for which unprotected sex may warrant an unwanted pregnancy can be consequential to those who did not expect to have children. The moral of the story is that if two consenting adults love each other and agree to sexual intercourse, there shouldn't be any issues as long as they know how to properly raise that child into a productive member of society.

That also leads to the last thing I will say on this matter. With Roe and Casey now overturned, this is also going to put pressure on Republicans who have long advocated for the decision to overturn Roe (which I definitely agree with) and Casey (which I mostly agree with caution) to emphasize charitable efforts to take care of these babies once they are born, including various pregnancy centers, diaper banks, charitable groups including long-existing Catholic organizations that assist families in need, tax incentives for those who choose to give an unwanted pregnancy via adoption or surrogacy (which will help millions of women who want to start a family but are unable to for various reasons) and other "points of light" that Republicans will have to promote aggressvely to counter the prevailing narrative on the left that "Republicans only care about you when you're in the womb, but once you're out of it you're on your own". After all, it was a Republican President who emphasized a "thousand points of light", and it is those points of light that Republicans must now emphasize to put their pro-life advocacy and the care that will be needed once these babies are born into action. There is ZERO excuse for Republicans to advocate for the unborn and then do nothing for these little miracles once they are born.

Now, here are the campaign updates from last night:
  • Unsurprising, State Sen. Darren Bailey dominated the Republican primary for Governor of Illinois, but the dynamics of how to achieve the nomination were noteworthy not only due to the endorsement by Donald Trump, but also the influence of Democrats who sought to steer the race towards Bailey as he was perceived as the "least electable" Republican in November. Whether or not that is true is merely heresay, though the practice somewhat worked in 2012 when Missouri Democrats successfully influenced the Republican primary against Sen. Claire McCaskill when it highlighted then-U.S. Rep. Todd Akin as "too conservative" (never mind that Akin was actually the establishmentarian candidate in the race versus two other outsider candidates whose conservative appeals were more genuine). Akin won that primary, but as we all know imploded after his "legitimate rape" comment on a St. Louis Sunday morning talk show stirred controversy. Regardless of the results last night, I still predict in this TL that Gov. J.B. Pritzker will be reelected and this also will not affect the future prospects of State Rep. Avery Bourne, who was on the losing ticket of gubernatorial candidate and Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin. However, Irvin flopped so badly he even finished slightly behind venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan (whose home base in Menard County is in the redrawn 13th District already mentioned in this TL). To that extent, Bourne (who already defeated Rodney Davis in this TL) will now have defeated Davis in addition to Sullivan (who will attempt to run for Congress here as well in this TL but ultimately fail).
  • Speaking of Rodney Davis, he will now be a former Congressman after all following his loss to fellow Rep. Mary Miller, who benefited from an endorsement in the new 15th District by Trump despite a series of misspoken statements that got her in hot water (even though whatever vocal accent she has certainly played a hand in her "right to life" comment being misconstrued as the obviously racist "white life"). Also not coming back is Rep. Marie Newman, who got blown out in the west suburban Chicago-based 6th District against fellow incumbent Rep. Sean Casten. While I did predict Newman over Casten at the beginning of this TL, Democratic voters in suburban Chicago apparently do care about not wanting a radical progressive like Newman hijack their chances this year, but Casten obviously benefited from more favorable geographics and especially a large sympathy vote after his older daughter, 17 years young, died unexpectedly earlier this month. Regardless, I still think Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau will defeat Casten (albeit narrowly), even with the poor GOP prospects statewide, since it is expected that Republicans in suburban Chicago and elsewhere across Illinois will look to focus on local, legislative and congressional races to keep them busy and give "a big middle finger" to the state's Democratic machine. Casten, though will make a comeback bid and in this TL will be the Dem nominee once again for a court-ordered 6th now exclusively within DuPage County.
  • That same "I don't want a fringe progressive" mentality also prevailed in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, where Raja Krishnamoorthi fended off a more progressive challenger who blasted the incumbent Rep. as beholden to corporate donors (specifically pharmaceuticals), but Krishnamoorthi ultimately prevailed in the new, real-life 8th District and not only will have been elected at the beginning of this TL, but (as posted earlier) will have defeated Rep. Mike Quigley in the redrawn 5th District. Don't get me wrong, Chris Dargis appears to be a very credible candidate and will put up a fight, but Biden did well enough in the new district where the 2022 incarnation of the 8th is just out of reach for the GOP, and whatever problems Biden may have in Chicagoland are nothing compared to his atrocious numbers in the rest of Illinois. My predictions in the two Black Chicago districts of significant interest in this cycle also went 50-50: while Jonathan Jackson obviously benefited from his father being the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the South Side-anchored 1st District, Danny K. Davis still prevailed narrowly over the progressive Kina Collins (with a little help from Joe Biden) in the West Side-based 7th. The trajectory of this TL on these two races will now slightly change, with the elderly Davis finally retiring, Jackson now the incumbent in the 1st, and Collins making a third primary run on the basis of Collins being more familiar with the West Side than Jackson but ultimately losing narrowly in a primary marred by the aforementioned campaign murder mystery. And I nailed it on Delia Ramirez, who destroyed her competition in the newly-drawn 3rd District which will be modified in this TL to contain actual Hispanic suburban population centers in places like Elgin that were actually left out of a district Democrats purportedly drew as "a second Latino district" IRL.
  • Wrapping up the Land of Lincoln, starting with the Chicago exurbs, while I had switched from Jack Lombardi to Mike Koolidge who in this TL had become the "incumbent" after defeating Rep. Lauren Underwood in the 14th District, I badly miscalculated there as exurban Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder appears to have won that district's GOP nod. I am correct though in predicting that Catalina Lauf will be the GOP nominee against Rep. Bill Foster in the 11th. In this TL, I still predict that Lauf will defeat Foster and Gryder will defeat Underwood; both Democrats have vastly larger war chests, but the districts are vulnerable enough to go Republican in an expected "red wave" election, once the hoopla surrounding the Dobbs decision dies down. Foster will call it a career ultimately, but Underwood will be back in this TL as the nominee for the Will County-anchored 11th District while Gryder will now be the incumbent in the 14th. Downstate, I predict that Nikki Budzinski will narrowly defeat whichever Republican between Regan Deering and Jesse Reising emerges out of the photo finish for the GOP nod in the 13th District, though in this TL Budzinski will have been drawn into a more congruent 13th that will make her a top NRCC target. However, not only will I predict that Esther Joy King is going to Congress from the 17th IRL, but she will be in good shape to win a second term as her historically Democratic district gets redrawn to be more compact - and more favorable for the GOP. And while Sen. Tammy Duckworth is heavily favored to defeat attorney Kathy Salvi (whose husband Al ran against then U.S. Rep. Dick Durbin in 1996 for the other Senate seat in Illinois), I'm going to say it's a shame it won't be as competitive as the one her husband ran against Durbin back in the day, but I may be wrong in the weirdest sense.
  • Colorado was the other big state to watch for the GOP on Tuesday, as Republicans fretted about Democrats and the most brazen of "election truthers" upending their destiny for November had Parker Mayor Greg Lopez won the gubernatorial nomination and State Rep. Ron Hanks the bid for Senate against incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet, as Democrats ran the same sort of "too conservative" ads they ran in Illinois, except in this case there was only one primary opponent in either race and "dark money" concerns surrounding Lopez and Hanks became campaign fodder. Ultimately, in a battle between the ostensibly cosmopolitan Front Range around Denver and Colorado Springs and the allegedly "ultra MAGA" remainder of the state, the I-25 corridor won the war as construction company owner Joe O'Dea defeated Hanks and University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl (herself also a successful entrepreneur who founded the Camp Bow Wow pet care franchise) edged past Lopez. While Ganahl is the underdog against Gov. Jared Polis (who more or less has filled predecessor and now-U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper's shoes quite nicely) and O'Dea is also an underdog against Bennet, it's fair to say the Colorado GOP may have dodged a bullet. That, and also defeating a favored but flawed candidate of the "election truthers" for Secretary of State in favor of Pam Anderson (the former County Clerk and Recorder of suburban Denver's Jefferson County, NOT the former Playboy Playmate and Baywatch actress).
  • We also now know who the players are in two Colorado congressional races. In the west suburban Denver-based 7th where Rep. Ed Perlmutter is retiring, Democratic State Sen. Brittany Pettersen will face Iraq/Afghan War vet and project manager Erik Aadland, while in the new 8th District anchored in the northern Denver suburbs the contest will pit State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer against State. Rep. Yadira Caraveo. And I still predict that Kirkmeyer will win and that Aadland (in this environment, and especially with the luck the statewide GOP drew last night) will still pull off an upset over Pettersen who may or may not seek a rematch in this TL. And while Reps. Lauren Boebert (3rd, Grand Junction to Pueblo) and Doug Lamborn (5th, Colorado Springs) survived well-documented primary challenges last night, I still predict in this TL that Boebert will (then as now) draw heavily funded primary and Democratic challenges and that Lamborn will finally call it a career in 2024.
  • New York's high-profile congressional races aren't until later this August, but they did hold their statewide elections last night as U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin will be the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. While Hochul is favored both in real life and in this TL, Zeldin has the benefit of endorsements from both the Independence and Conservative parties in New York - which usually is a plus for Republican candidates in New York's famous fusion election system where candidates run on multiple tickets; his running mate for Lt. Gov., NYPD veteran Alison Esposito, has also drawn intrigue as she not only has the same slate of endorsements as Zeldin, but is also an out lesbian (not a big deal, for love is certainly LOVE and the news has actually been very positive!). Zeldin's 44 percent and dominance both on Long Island and in the Upstate more than made up for his losing New York City to Andrew Giuliani (23 percent), the Hudson Valley suburbs and exurbs of New York City to Rob Astorino (18 percent), and the Watertown side of the North Country to self-funding Harry Wilson (15 percent). As for Hochul's running mate, Lt. Gov. (and ex-U.S. Rep.) Antonio Delgado easily won his Democratic primary and is favored to win (for now) on Hochul's ticket, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is still widely favored to defeat Republican challenger Joe Pinion in November, but in this TL will have been relegated to the purgatory of Senate Minority Leader.
  • The big surprise of the night for me was Nebraska, where a special election was held in the 1st District following the resignation of convicted Rep. Jeff Fortenberry who yesterday has been sentenced to two years' probation instead of prison. State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks ran perhaps the strongest campaign of any Democrat in the Lincoln-based 1st in decades, but Republican and fellow State Sen. Mike Flood rued the day in a close 53-46 margin. Meanwhile in Mississippi, ethically challenged Rep. Steven Palazzo wasn't as lucky, as he lost to Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell in the GOP primary for the Biloxi-based 4th District, though his in-state neighbor, GOP Rep. Michael Guest, managed to trounce challenger Michael Cassidy in his own close race in the nearby 3rd District connecting the Jackson suburbs to Meridian and Starkville. And while a lot of Utah Republicans dissented against their incumbent Reps. in all four of the state's congressional districts, the incumbents still prevailed with no less than 58 percent of the vote, as did Sen. Mike Lee who crossed 60 percent in his primary renomination bid; while all of the Reps. are strongly favored to win reelection, Lee is facing an aggressive challenge from 2016 independent presidential candidate and rabid OG Never Trumper Evan McMullin, who is running with support from the Democratic Party.
  • Oklahoma's two Senate races are set, with incumbent Sen. James Lankford easily trouncing a far-right challenger and now set to win in November against the winner of a Democratic runoff next August for the regular Senate election, while the special election to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe (who is resigning and retiring at the end of the year) will go to a runoff between Rep. Markwayne Mullin from the eastern-based 2nd District and former State House Speaker T.W. Shannon; the winner will face one-term former U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn for the right to hold on to this seat until the next regular election in 2026. Mullin's seat, meanwhile, is all but set to be held by the winner of August's runoff between one of three candidates between State Rep. Avery Frix, former State Sen. Josh Brecheen, and Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee; the shameful part about the latter is that Teehee has the most iconic and marketable name, but is the third man in a race where only two advance to the runoff.
  • Last but not least, South Carolina had a runoff for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Sen. Tim Scott. The victor of this runoff, State Rep. Krystle Matthews, will be a huge underdog in November against potential 2024 presidential candidate Scott (in this TL, Scott will have easily won, but as we all know by now he will NOT be running for President and will have instead endorsed a fellow South Carolinian named Nimrata Randhawa (aka Nikki Haley).

That's it for now. The congressional part of the June 4th elections in this TL are coming up on the next post...
Logged
PRESIDENT STANTON
Rookie
**
Posts: 242
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: June 29, 2022, 07:43:27 AM »

I thought races for Governor of Illinois occur in non presidential election year's? So how come Governor's race in Illinois is occurring in 2024?
Logged
2016
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,390
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: June 29, 2022, 08:23:04 AM »

@SaintStan86,
I am massivly curious whom Governor DeSantis & Vice President Harris pick as their Running Mates.

I could make a good case DeSantis picking a Woman just like he did in 2018 when he ran for Governor and picked Jeanette Nunez.

As for Vice President Harris I could see her picking fellow Presidential Contender & North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper is termed out in 2024.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: June 29, 2022, 03:09:18 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2022, 03:30:57 PM by SaintStan86 »

I thought races for Governor of Illinois occur in non presidential election year's? So how come Governor's race in Illinois is occurring in 2024?
By referring to "real-life updates", I'm referring to last night's results in several states as opposed to 2024. In 2024 in this TL, Pritzker is already the Democratic nominee and can run for another term in 2026. I have highlighted what has happened in real life and so far in this TL to update what happens from here on out.

In this TL, Illinois is going to be a congressional battleground as the state's egregious Dem gerrymander is broken apart and returned to a more normal map. While there are Democrats who will crow about one of Chicago's three historically Black districts being broken apart, the real-life situation of Chicago's South Side migrating out to the suburbs and not necessarily being replenished - a factor that along with decimated growth south of Springfield resulted in Illinois losing a congressional seat last year - is something that cannot be ignored without disenfranchising millions of suburban and rural constituencies south and southwest of Chicago.

To this extent, preserving IL-01's historic significance as a pioneering Black district in Chicago is the necessary evil that is taken to guarantee future Black representation out of the state, and by connecting it to the West Side as well as the mostly Black neighborhood of Austin and other West Side suburbs with sizable Black populations such as Maywood and Broadview, as well as White liberal bastions like Oak Park - all while maintaining its presence from the Loop to Hyde Park (which in turn also incorporates Barack Obama's presidential center). Of the course, the new IL-02 (as seen in this map I drew, which has a DRA proportionality ratio of 100) is about 70 percent Black, except south Cook County has become majority Black and there would be no sense in maintaining three Black majority districts without either continuing to break up (and disenfranchise) Will County voters or affecting the majority Hispanic status of the 4th District that must now rely on Chicago's mostly Mexican-American southwest side as the northwest side (traditionally Puerto Rican) now has its own district in this TL.

Lastly, the new map in this TL also gives Keith Pekau an opportunity to explicitly represent his southwest suburban constituents while also recasting the 6th as a DuPage district, one where Casten could run again where it could be his race to lose. And unlike the 5th (which did not move dramatically from the GOP compared to the 6th between 2016 and 2020), the 6th would also be viable for a GOP pickup given that areas like Wheaton, Lombard, Naperville and Carol Stream not too long ago were held by Republicans at the state level in addition to federal as well.
Logged
SaintStan86
Rookie
**
Posts: 142
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: June 30, 2022, 06:30:20 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2022, 05:35:15 AM by SaintStan86 »

Meanwhile, on the congressional ledger...

June 4, 2024
WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN TONIGHT'S CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES
In addition to the final curtain call on the 2024 presidential primaries, with Vice President Kamala Harris looking to hold the White House for the Democrats & President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looking to take it back with the "revenge backing" of former President Donald Trump, there are also a number of high-profile congressional races across the country that will determine whether or not Republicans are in command of their destiny to hold on to Capitol Hill or if Democrats are poised to gain back Congress after a disastrous 2022 midterm. These are the signs to look for as the night progresses:

North Carolina, 7:30PM: The race to succeed term-limited Gov. and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Roy Cooper is pretty much set on the Republican side as Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is believed to have coalesced much of the GOP electorate behind him. However, the Democratic side has become a battle between the more liberal Attorney General Josh Stein and the more moderate former U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, with much of the Democratic establishment appearing to coalesce behind the former. A marquee Republican rematch will also be conducted in the western-based 11th District based in Asheville, where first-term Rep. Chuck Edwards and the former U.S. Rep. he defeated in 2022, Madison Cawthorn, are in a rematch, while Democrats are targeting the south suburban Raleigh 13th District of freshman Rep. Bo Hines and Republicans the Rocky Mount-based 1st District of freshman Rep. Don Davis and the Greensboro-based 6th District of Rep. Kathy Manning. Republicans will also look to nominate candidates in the open Winston-Salem-based 5th District of retiring Rep. Virginia Foxx and in the 8th District stretching from the southern reaches of the Piedmont Triad out to Rockingham and Fort Liberty; both districts favor Republicans in the general election. Candidates who fail to cross 30 percent of the vote will advance to a July 23rd runoff between the top two candidates in each race.

New Jersey, 8PM: The big race to watch will be the Democratic primary of embattled Sen. Bob Menendez, whose reputation for corruption and ethical challenges (despite one such set of allegations being dropped before his 2018 reelection) has dragged down the popularity of the 70-year-old incumbent. He is facing a strong primary challenger in 52-year-old U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who has stressed her ability to "win over Republican areas in our state" as a key advantage between herself and Menendez in campaign ads, while also attacking the incumbent for "not being able to shake it off" - the "it" referring to his reputation for ethical challenges. However, Menendez has gained support from most of the state's Democratic establishment, while Sherrill has faced criticism for voting with Republicans on key economic and tax issues, and has pointed to endorsements from such progressive stars as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and fellow in-state Sen. Cory Booker as evidence of his more liberal bonafides. The winner of this primary will take on celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Öz, who lost the open Senate race in nearby Pennsylvania in 2022 to that state's Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, whose victory was the only pickup of a Republican-held Senate seat in that cycle. Unlike 2022 where he faced allegations of "carpetbagging" and criticism of how he handled his departure from his nationally syndicated TV talk show before his Senate run, Dr. Öz has faced no such significant criticism over his residency status here in New Jersey, and polls have indicated a competitive race against either Menendez or Sherrill.

In addition to the Senate, Republicans are also targeting three suburban districts across the state with the intent of splitting the state's congressional delegation evenly between the two parties (versus the current 9-3 Democratic split). In Sherrill's 11th District anchored in the suburbs west of New York City around Morris, south Passaic and west Essex counties, Republicans have several candidates battling for the nomination in the affluent suburban district that is now a top NRCC target. Another such district, the 5th District stretching across northern Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties, is also being targeted by the NRCC as Rep. Josh Gottheimer continues to draw controversy over turnover within his district and DC offices as well as allegations of harsh treatment towards one of his aides, who was brought to the verge of tears. And in the South Jersey-based 3rd District, Democratic incumbent Andy Kim is staring at a likely rematch against 2022 GOP challenger Bob Healey. Democrats, for their part are also targeting the 7th District stretching from Union and Somerset counties out to the exurban Skylands in Hunterdon and Warren counties, where Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. is running for a second term against a different Democrat from the one he defeated in 2022, Tom Malinowski, while the retirement of 22-term Republican Chris Smith from the state's heavily Republican 4th District on the Jersey Shore has erupted into a full-blown Republican horse race to win a primary that is tantamount to election in a district Trump won by more than 20 percent.

Alabama, 8PM: Three important races are on the clock in the southern half of the state, where a post-election redistricting has resulted in a new, Democratic-leaning Black-White coalition 2nd District which connects most of Mobile to Montgomery. In the Democratic primary here, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher has gained most of the establishment support among Democrats, while constitutional law professor Bryan Fair, who chairs the Board of Directors for the Southern Poverty Law Center, has gained support from progressives despite allegations of "carpetbagging" from Hatcher, with a third Mobile-based candidate, Mobile City Councilman Cory Penn, as a potential spoiler. The current Republican incumbent of the old 2nd, Rep. Barry Moore, is running in the redrawn 1st District that connects more Republican sections of Mobile to the Wiregrass region including Dothan and has been endorsed by Donald Trump and Sen. Tommy Tuberville, while current 1st District Rep. Jerry Carl has been endorsed by Gov. Kay Ivey and the state's other U.S. Senator, Katie Britt. And in the 3rd District stretching from suburbs of Montgomery to much of eastern Alabama, longtime Rep. Mike Rogers' retirement has set off a fierce Republican primary between several candidates, with former U.S. Ambassador to Slovenia and one-time gubernatorial candidate Lindy Blanchard, businesswoman Jessica Taylor and State Rep. Joe Lovvorn (whose district includes his alma mater of Auburn University) believed to be the leading candidates. If no candidate crosses 50 percent of the vote in these races, the top two contenders in each party will advance to a runoff on Tuesday, July 2nd.

Mississippi, 8PM: While Democrats are looking to choose a potential dark horse candidate against Republican Sen. Roger Wicker in November, the big race of the night is for the Democratic nomination in the 2nd District stretching from the state capital of Jackson out to rural counties along the Mississippi Delta, where longtime Rep. Bennie Thompson is retiring. Several Democrats have entered the race, with much of the focus in the majority Black district surrounding on which candidate is the "most progressive", with much of the race turning on controversy over one candidate demanding his opponents take a drug test as well as a fight over which candidate is "most supportive of securing voting rights" believed to be "endangered" under Republican control. If no candidate gets an absolute majority, a runoff will be held on Tuesday, June 25th to determine nominees.

New Mexico, 9PM: Republicans are targeting two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich with 2020 Senate nominee and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti back for a third statewide try, along with aiming for a clean sweep of the state's three congressional districts which some political pundits view as impossible. The toughest battle is in the east Albuquerque-based 1st District of Melanie Stansbury whose district voted for President Biden by a double-digit margin, with an even tougher race expected for 3rd District-based incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez whose Santa Fe-based district stretches clockwise from Farmington to Roswell. While Republicans also are facing a tough battle in the 2nd District of its incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell, most polls favor Herrell outside the margin of error.

South Dakota, 9PM: In by far the sleepiest state of the night, Rep. Dusty Johnson is a heavy favorite for reelection in November, though he has two Republican candidates who predictably argue the three-term Republican is "insufficiently conservative".

Iowa, 10PM: Democrats have nowhere to go but up here in Iowa, two years after being shut out of the state for the first time since the "Republican Revolution" of 1994 (and also the first time since the Eisenhower administration that Democrats had no representation from Iowa on either side of the Capitol). With the exception of Rep. Randy Feenstra's heavily Republican 4th District in western Iowa, Democrats are targeting the state's entire congressional delegation - the southeast-based 1st District of Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the northeast-based 2nd District of Ashley Hinson, and the Des Moines-based 3rd District of freshman Zach Nunn who is perhaps the most vulnerable of the three.

Montana, 10PM: One of the most important Senate races in the nation will be contested here in November, with incumbent three-term Democrat Jon Tester and his 2018 Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale, locked in as the overwhelming favorites to win their parties' respective nominations. As for the congressional seat being vacated by Rosendale, the real contest in the open, strongly Republican 2nd District, stretching from Bllings and Helena out to Great Falls and Glendive, is the Republican nomination to succeed the two-term Republican. Democrats, meanwhile, will be looking to nominate a candidate to take on incumbent Republican first-term Gov. Greg Gianforte.

Northern California, 11PM (House): A multitude of congressional battles are occurring across the Golden State, including several throughout Northern California. In the San Francisco Bay Area, explosive Democratic primaries have emerged in six open seats held by incumbent Democrats Barbara Lee in Oakland, Zoe Lofgren in San Jose, Anna Eshoo in Palo Alto, Eric Swalwell in the East Bay suburbs, Jared Huffman in the North Bay, and Mike Thompson in the Napa Valley, as well as Doris Matsui outside of the Bay Area in northern Sacramento and Sacramento County; with the exception of Swalwell and Huffman who are both running for Senate, all of these incumbents are retiring. In addition, 2022 gubernatorial nominee and State Sen. Brian Dahle is believed to have the inside track to succeed retiring Republican Doug LaMalfa in the 1st District anchored in Chico, while Republican freshmen Tom Patti in Stockton and Kevin Kiley in suburban Sacramento are waging their first reelection bids as targets of the DCCC, along with freshman Democrat Adam Gray and moderate Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with the latter being a perennial target of the DCCC. In addition, recalled former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will look to make a political comeback against San Francisco Supervisor Catherine Stefani, whose constituents at City Hall include the district's former Congresswoman, Nancy Pelosi, in the runoff round of last April's special election to succeed the former House Speaker.

Southern California, 11PM (House): Nine open seats will be watched closely across Southern California tonight, including that of House Speaker and current U.S. Senate candidate Kevin McCarthy in Bakersfield. While McCarthy is likely to win one of two spots for his race, a battle of two Republicans or a Republican-Democrat battle strongly favoring the former is the likely outcome for November. Eight other open seats will be watched as well, including three held by Democratic Senate candidates Adam Schiff north of Hollywood, Raul Ruiz in the Coachella Valley, and Katie Porter in coastal Orange County which is a major NRCC target. Four Democrats - Brad Sherman in the San Fernando Valley, Linda Sánchez north of Long Beach, Maxine Waters in south Los Angeles and Los Angeles County and Grace Napolitano in the San Gabriel Valley - are also retiring, with Democrats heavily favored win to each of them, while 16-term Republican Ken Calvert's retirement from his Riverside County district has opened up a competitive battleground. Several Republicans will also have to contend in five seats in the Los Angeles area being targeted by the DCCC, including the Orange County districts of Young Kim, Michelle Steel and freshman Brian Maryott, the northern LA County district of Mike Garcia, and the Ventura County district of Matt Jacobs with Democrats vowing competitive candidates in each of the districts.

California, 11PM (U.S. Senate): In arguably the most important race of the night, where venerable U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein is retiring, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is looking to move across the Capitol to the Senate in what many consider a huge gamble where McCarthy is giving up the third-highest position in the country for a six-year term as a freshman Senator from a prominent blue state, with the only other Republican of note being Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell, in a race where the Democrat would be favored to win. However, the focus has shifted from whether or not McCarthy will even achieve the impossible and win Feinstein's Senate seat to whether or not Democrats will even have a candidate to run in November.

While Republicans have effectively coalesced around McCarthy and a surging Grenell, Democrats have devolved into a very nasty and expensive primary fight involving five U.S. Reps. (Adam Schiff, Raul Ruiz, Jared Huffman, Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell, as well as former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson and three other Democrats with legislative experience as well as scandal-plagued former LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva who is nominally running as an independent. While Porter has been endorsed by her mentor and one-time presidential hopeful in Sen. Elizabeth Warren, she has struggled to unite progressives (particularly in the Bay Area where Swalwell and Huffman have enjoyed sizable support). Ruiz and Bustamante have coalesced support from Hispanics across the state, but have also struggled to corral support in the critical Los Angeles and San Diego counties, where Schiff has maintained sizable strength in the former. Despite clarion calls from many top Democrats to unite behind a "consensus candidate" for the seat, the state party has rebuffed calls along with Feinstein to anoint a successor, though both the Los Angeles Times and San Francisco Chronicle have endorsed Schiff as their lone Democratic choice along with McCarthy for the Republicans in November. Efforts to replace the top two primary system with a ranked choice voting system similar to the one implemented in Alaska in 2022 in Sacramento have also failed, with Gov. Gavin Newsom looking to punt the issue until after the 2024 election.

Though rumors exist that Villanueva would look to peel off support among some Republicans (given Villanueva's past brief support from some conservatives over his battles with recalled former District Attorney George Gascon), California Republicans have urged their supporters to coalesce behind either McCarthy or Grenell and have warned that "a vote for Villanueva is both a vote for corruption and a vote for Democrats". Many of the last polls conducted before the primary showed McCarthy leading with 15-25 percent, while second place is a battle between Democrats Porter and Schiff and Republican Grenell. The top two finishers in tonight's jungle primary will advance to November, but if Grenell were to finish second overall, it would create the rarest of all possibilities: a November election with two Republicans and no Democrats, effectively handing Republicans their first pickup of the 2024 cycle in the least expected of places, and creating an embarrassing crisis situation for Democrats in the home state of Kamala Harris.

Pundits and the national news media are not taking the race lightly. "If the combined vote for the more establishment-oriented McCarthy and the more-America First aligned Grenell were to exceed 35, 40 or even 45 percent, Democrats will likely be in deep trouble", noted one California pundit who wished to remain anonymous. Assessing the situation, The Young Turks host Cenk Uygur remarked, "If Republicans win both spots for the election in November to succeed Feinstein, there is going to be a reckoning like no other in the California Democratic Party". Most, if not all of the major network evening news anchors will be anchoring from Los Angeles tonight, with ABC's David Muir, CBS's Norah O'Donnell and NBC's Lester Holt, along with Univision's Jorge Ramos and Fox News's Bret Baier and Trace Gallagher (the latter already based in Los Angeles) all anchoring their newscasts from their networks' Los Angeles bureaus.
Logged
America Needs Danielle Tozer
Peebs
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,391
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: June 30, 2022, 09:18:36 AM »

God, I will never forgive the Democratic Party if they manage to lock themselves out of the California Senate race.
Logged
Larry's Crystal Ball
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: July 01, 2022, 08:17:14 PM »

God, I will never forgive the Democratic Party if they manage to lock themselves out of the California Senate race.
Wulfric will forever get to say "I told you so!"
Logged
PRESIDENT STANTON
Rookie
**
Posts: 242
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: July 02, 2022, 01:51:05 AM »

Focus on more House and Senate contests; as presidential contest won't be too interesting at least until after the summer. I think whoever Harris or DeSantis pick for Vice President won't reveal too much. So the House and Senate contests add sizzle to the story.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.416 seconds with 13 queries.