2024 - A Blank Canvas
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March 28, 2024, 05:48:37 PM
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  2024 - A Blank Canvas
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #150 on: May 10, 2022, 02:30:25 AM »

While Texas is not officially shown as having closed its polls until 9pm ET, this is due to El Paso and its region's three counties - El Paso, Culberson and Hudspeth - that are situated in the Mountain Time Zone. Otherwise, the lion's share of the state's polling places are now closed, with a number of competitive congressional elections and other elections and referendums concurring with the presidential primaries.

Republican runoffs are expected in several congressional districts including the 5th District east of Dallas (which Lance Gooden has vacated to run for Senate), the 7th District in west and southwest Houston (where incumbent Democrat Lizzie Fletcher is a top NRCC target), the newly drawn 9th District southeast of Houston including Galveston, the 14th District anchored in Houston's southern suburbs and southwest rural counties (Sugar Land, Pearland, Bay City) where Randy Weber is retiring, the 21st District connecting suburbs of San Antonio and Austin to the Hill Country where Chip Roy is running for the Senate, the 32nd District in north Dallas and its immediate suburbs (where the NRCC is targeting three-term Democrat Colin Allred), the 34th District from Brownsville to Port Aransas where Vicente Gonzalez is being targeted by the NRCC, and the 36th District (formerly the 2nd) in Houston's northern suburbs (The Woodlands, Kingwood) left open when Dan Crenshaw decided to run for the Senate. Two other Republican open seats are expected to not go to a runoff - the redrawn 27th in South Texas, where Michael Cloud's court-stricken district (over diluted Hispanic voting strength) has corralled him into a battle with 1/2-term former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, and the 31st District between Austin's northern suburbs and Temple, where attorney and former State Representative Dan Gattis is believed to have cleared the field to succeed longtime incumbent John Carter.

Competitive Democratic primaries are also expected in open seats being vacated by Sheila Jackson Lee (18th) and Al Green (25th, formerly the 9th) in Houston along with Lloyd Doggett (37th) in Austin, as well as the redrawn 24th in the western quarter of Dallas and Dallas County (which is expected to favor a Hispanic Democrat) and the South Texas-based 15th of freshman Republican Monica De La Cruz who is being targeted by the DCCC.

And now, at 9PM ET/8PM CT, polls have finally closed across ALL of Texas, plus Colorado. Neither state has calls ready to be made, but some more results from states that were too close to call are now coming in...


MINNESOTA
DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR PRIMARY

Minnesota's open DFL primary is expected to hand out 75 pledged delegates tonight - one of the bigger prizes on the Democratic ledger. 49 of these are district delegates across the state's eight congressional districts, with another 26 consisting of at-large delegates and party leaders/elected officials.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 28.96 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 26.59 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 17.94 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 15.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 5.21 percent
Roy Cooper - 4.95 percent
(Remaining 0.86 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Rochester, Mankato & Worthington (5 delegates):
Amy Klobuchar 3, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Eagan, New Prague & Northfield (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Amy Klobuchar 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Minnetonka, Bloomington & Anoka (7 delegates):
Amy Klobuchar 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD4/St. Paul, Woodbury & Shoreview (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Amy Klobuchar 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Minneapolis & St. Louis Park (10 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Amy Klobuchar 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD6/St. Cloud, Chanhassen & Elk River (4 delegates):
Amy Klobuchar 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD7/Alexandria, Moorhead & Marshall (4 delegates):
Amy Klobuchar 2, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD8/Duluth, Bemidji & North Branch (5 delegates):
Amy Klobuchar 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (10 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Amy Klobuchar 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Amy Klobuchar 5, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 349 delegates +27 from Minnesota
Elizabeth Warren - 207 delegates +11 from Minnesota
Roy Cooper - 50 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 47 delegates +9 from Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates +28 from Minnesota
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Klobuchar was hoping for her home state to give her a big boost, but Harris narrowly prevails thanks to her strong performance in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Klobuchar does score victories across the rest of the state including the Twin Cities suburbs, but her margin in those areas is smaller than that of Harris in the urban core. Ads run by the Warren campaign, targeting Klobuchar over her handling of criminal justice matters (including one of the officers who would later become infamous in the chokehold death of George Floyd) did not help the former Hennepin County District Attorney's case for the presidency either. Warren benefited mostly in areas with sizable pockets of White liberals as well as some blue-collar voters in more urban areas like Duluth, while Buttigieg performed most strongly in rural Minnesota. Needless to say, this is the curtain call for the Klobuchar campaign if it isn't already.

TENNESSEE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

63 pledged delegates will be handed out to Democrats who cross the party's qualifying threshold, with 41 of these delegates to be handed out at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 50.24 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 17.61 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 15.00 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 9.41 percent
Jared Polis - 3.91 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 3.40 percent
(Remaining 0.43 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Johnson City, Bristol & Sevierville (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 1
CD2/Knoxville, Maryville & LaFollette (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD3/Chattanooga, Athens & Oak Ridge (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD4/Murfreesboro, Dayton & Lawrenceburg (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD5/Nashville (Green Hills, Bellevue), Spring Hill & Mount Juliet (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD6/Nashville (East Nashville, Donelson), Cookeville & Gallatin (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
CD7/Nashville (Downtown, West Nashville), Franklin & Clarksville (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Jackson, Germantown & Union City (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
CD9/Memphis (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Roy Cooper 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (14 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 396 delegates +47 from Tennessee
Elizabeth Warren - 214 delegates +7 from Tennessee
Roy Cooper - 59 delegates +9 from Tennessee
Pete Buttigieg - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

With much of the rural White vote in Tennessee that made up the core of Al Gore's political base having since drifted to the Republicans, the Tennessee Democratic base is now dominated by Black and White liberal voters in the urban cores. Harris wins big amongst these voters, and romps to a large victory across the state, even shutting out her competition in some CDs. While Cooper does perform reasonably well in East Tennessee and Warren does well enough in Nashville to earn some delegates, they are no match for the sitting Vice President.

TENNESSEE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

58 delegates will be awarded tonight to candidates at the statewide and congressional levels. 31 statewide delegates will be awarded based on three criteria: one candidate wins all with either two-thirds of the statewide vote or being the only candidate with 20 percent of the vote, two or more candidates with 20 percent earn delegates proportionally, or delegates are distributed proportionally amongst all candidates. The 27 congressional delegates will be allocated based on either the former, 2 or more candidates receiving over 20 percent with the winner getting 2 delegates and the runner-up 1, or the top three vote-getters each receiving a delegate.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 31.59 percent
Mike Pence - 17.51 percent
Nikki Haley - 16.89 percent
Ted Cruz - 7.69 percent
Mike Pompeo - 7.28 percent
Ben Sasse - 6.59 percent
Chris Christie - 4.19 percent
Candace Owens - 4.01 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.71 percent
(Remaining 1.54 percent went to other candidates, including 1.06 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Johnson City, Bristol & Sevierville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Knoxville, Maryville & LaFollette (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Chattanooga, Athens & Oak Ridge (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Murfreesboro, Dayton & Lawrenceburg (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD5/Nashville (Green Hills, Bellevue), Spring Hill & Mount Juliet (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD6/Nashville (East Nashville, Donelson), Cookeville & Gallatin (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD7/Nashville (Downtown, West Nashville), Franklin & Clarksville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD8/Jackson, Germantown & Union City (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD9/Memphis (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
Statewide, at-large (31 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 31

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 193 delegates +53 from Tennessee
Nikki Haley - 131 delegates +2 from Tennessee
Mike Pence - 57 delegates +3 from Tennessee
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

While DeSantis's performance is not as dominant compared to some other states in the South, there is enough variation between Pence and Haley depending on the density of certain parts of Tennessee with the former tending to do well in more rural areas and the latter in more suburban areas. DeSantis wins all statewide and most congressional delegates, with the only exceptions being three delegates for Pence in more rural districts outside of the party's historic heartland in East Tennessee and two delegates for Haley - one each in districts centered in Nashville and Memphis. Despite having recently moved to the Nashville area, Owens finishes well behind in the bottom of the pack with just over 4 percent.

OKLAHOMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

43 delegates will be awarded to presidential candidates from Oklahoma. Of these, 15 will come from congressional results and 28 will be awarded based on the statewide results. The congressional delegates will be awarded based on three scenarios: a candidate winning an absolute majority or being the only candidate with at least 15 percent, 2 candidates with at least 15 percent of the vote earning delegates only - 2 for the winner and 1 for the runner-up, or the top three candidates each receiving a delegate if at least 3 cross the 15% threshold. The statewide delegates will be allocated either by virtue of one candidate with an absolute majority winning all these delegates or those with at least 15 percent of the vote earning delegates proportionally with any extra delegates remaining to remain unbound.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 27.10 percent
Mike Pence - 18.95 percent
Nikki Haley - 15.19 percent
Mike Pompeo - 15.01 percent
Ted Cruz - 8.14 percent
Ben Sasse - 6.25 percent
Chris Christie - 4.49 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.13 percent
Candace Owens - 1.48 percent
(Remaining 1.26 percent went to other candidates, including 0.91 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Tulsa (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Mike Pompeo 1
CD2/Bartlesville, Muskogee & Durant (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD3/Oklahoma City (Southwest), Stillwater & Woodward (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pompeo 1
CD4/Norman, Ardmore & Lawton (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD5/Oklahoma City, Edmond & Shawnee (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
Statewide, at-large (28 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 8, Mike Pence 5, Nikki Haley 4, Mike Pompeo 4
(7 delegates will attend the Republican National Convention unbound.)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 208 delegates +15 from Oklahoma
Nikki Haley - 138 delegates +7 from Oklahoma
Mike Pence - 65 delegates +8 from Oklahoma
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 16 delegates +6 from Oklahoma
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Gov. Kevin Stitt's endorsement of DeSantis is believed to have given the latter an advantage, but it does not change the fact that Oklahoma's result is nonetheless quite competitive. Pence narrowly edged DeSantis in the largely rural 3rd, but still won only one delegate as Pompeo fared competitively in this district (in part due to his being from neighboring Kansas) and also in the Tulsa-based 1st where he also won a delegate. Haley's strongest performance was in more urban areas of the state around Oklahoma City and Tulsa, including winning over 20 percent of the vote in the 5th District. 7 delegates will be assigned to unbound delegates; had these delegates been awarded proportionally as well, three would have gone to Cruz (who competed with Pence for the social conservative vote) and two would have gone to Sasse (who won over 15 percent of the vote in Stillwater and Norman, both coincidentally college towns) and Christie (who won over 10 percent of the vote in some Oklahoma City precincts). Not surprisingly, Sasse supporters have announced a concerted effort to win three of these unbound delegates at next May's state GOP convention.

On the Republican side, Texas and Minnesota are too close to call, while Colorado's primary (which replaced 2016's closed caucuses and mostly uses the very controversial mail-in ballot format) may take some more time before delegates are officially allocated. Virginia and North Carolina remain too close to call. For the Democrats, North Carolina and Oklahoma remain too close to call, as is the case with Texas. Colorado's aforementioned mail ballot-based primary is also expected to take some time as the state allows same-day voter registration and postmarking ballots for a few days after the primary; this has been a source of intense consternation for Republicans who have since done away with their controversial candidate nominating process of requiring signatures or a closed assembly to select the party's nominees for higher offices, largely following criticism of the 2022 candidate selection process in which a far-right U.S. Senate candidate with little support from the populous Front Range prevailed as the only candidate in that tentpole race to advance from the 2022 party assembly.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #151 on: May 11, 2022, 05:15:09 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2022, 01:50:08 PM by SaintStan86 »

Just past 9:30PM on the East Coast, and two primaries where the outcome was not clear from the get-go have just come in...

MINNESOTA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Minnesota Republicans will award 40 delegates to qualifying presidential candidates. Of these, 24 will be awarded by congressional district and 16 statewide. Any candidate who receives 85 percent or more of the vote will receive all delegates. Because that scenario is unlikely, delegates will be awarded proportionately to candidates who receive at least 10 percent of the vote at either the congressional or statewide level.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Mike Pence - 23.14 percent
Ron DeSantis - 22.52 percent
Nikki Haley - 18.73 percent
Ben Sasse - 10.31 percent
Ted Cruz - 9.01 percent
Chris Christie - 6.76 percent
Mike Pompeo - 5.45 percent
Larry Hogan - 1.45 percent
Candace Owens - 1.16 percent
[Remaining 1.47 percent went to other candidates, including 1.05 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Rochester, Mankato & Worthington (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ben Sasse 1
CD2/Eagan, New Prague & Northfield (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Mike Pence 1
CD3/Minnetonka, Bloomington & Anoka (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1
CD4/St. Paul, Woodbury & Shoreview (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1
CD5/Minneapolis & St. Louis Park (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ben Sasse 1
CD6/St. Cloud, Chanhassen & Elk River (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Mike Pence 1
CD7/Alexandria, Moorhead & Marshall (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD8/Duluth, Bemidji & North Branch (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
Statewide, at-large (16 delegates):
Mike Pence 5, Ron DeSantis 5, Nikki Haley 4, Ben Sasse 2

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 221 delegates +13 from Minnesota
Nikki Haley - 148 delegates +10 from Minnesota
Mike Pence - 78 delegates +13 from Minnesota
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 21 delegates +4 from Minnesota
Mike Pompeo - 16 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Pence's narrow win in Minnesota is attributed to his strong support in rural Minnesota, particularly in northern Minnesota including Duluth and Bemidji which moved dramatically towards the GOP in the Trump era, with his weakest support coming in the urban core around Minneapolis and St. Paul. However, DeSantis ties with Pence for delegates (13 apiece) by being the only candidate to win a delegate in every congressional district and of course statewide as well. Haley's strongest support is in and around the Twin Cities, where she competed for suburban voters with DeSantis and won the 3rd, 4th and 5th districts that cover Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Sasse wins a delegate in the southern-based 1st (bordering Iowa where he finished second in the Iowa caucuses) and in the 5th District in Minneapolis (which includes the main campus of the University of Minnesota), in addition to winning two delegates at-large.

OKLAHOMA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Oklahoma Democrats will allocate 36 pledged delegates in tonight's primary which is closed to Democrats only, though registered independents are allowed to participate. 23 of these delegates will be awarded at the congressional level, while another 13 delegates will be allocated based on the statewide results.

Results of Primary:
Elizabeth Warren - 34.21 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 21.68 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 16.69 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 9.95 percent
Jared Polis - 9.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 7.96 percent
(Remaining 0.37 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Tulsa (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD2/Bartlesville, Muskogee & Durant (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Roy Cooper 2
CD3/Oklahoma City (Southwest), Stillwater & Woodward (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD4/Norman, Ardmore & Lawton (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 1
CD5/Oklahoma City, Edmond & Shawnee (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 1
At-Large Delegates (8 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 406 delegates +10 from Oklahoma
Elizabeth Warren - 234 delegates +20 from Oklahoma
Roy Cooper - 64 delegates +5 from Oklahoma
Pete Buttigieg - 48 delegates +1 from Oklahoma
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Even though Oklahoma's Democratic Party establishment appears to be more conservative than most other states', Warren's ties to Oklahoma City (where she grew up and graduated from high school) combined with a relatively smaller Black population than most other states and a more conservative rural vote that favored Cooper (who won second place to Warren with over 25 percent of the vote in the 2nd District in eastern Oklahoma), enables her to romp to victory in the Sooner State. While Harris nearly draws even with Warren in Tulsa, she still falls short to Warren and barely won delegates in districts covering Oklahoma City (where Polis and Buttigieg both crossed 10 percent of the vote, with the latter winning a delegate in the 5th with just over 15 percent).

It is now 10PM on the East Coast, and 8PM where polls have just closed in...

UTAH
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

30 delegates will be allocated in Utah's closed Democratic primary, including 19 at the congressional level and 11 statewide.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 27.71 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 21.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 16.29 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 15.18 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 11.55 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 7.20 percent
(Remaining 0.58 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Ogden, Logan & Salt Lake City (Eastern half of Temple Square) (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Salt Lake City (Western half of Temple Square), St. George & Farmington (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Jared Polis 1
CD3/Provo, Park City & Vernal (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/West Jordan, Ephraim & Spanish Fork (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1, Jared Polis 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Jared Polis 2, Elizabeth Warren 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 418 delegates +12 from Utah
Elizabeth Warren - 238 delegates +4 from Utah
Roy Cooper - 64 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 57 delegates +9 from Utah
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 12 delegates +5 from Utah
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Utah's wild primary results are perhaps in large part the result of the state's relatively more moderate Democratic establishment at least compared to other states, with the state's LDS population being a factor. Harris wins on the strength of her wins in three of the state's four congressional districts minus the 1st District in northern Utah, won by Buttigieg. Notwithstanding the LDS's own views on LGBTQ+ issues, Buttigieg and Polis performed well in the state, particularly in rural areas with Polis also running competitively in Salt Lake City and in the eastern parts of the state closer to Colorado. Warren's strongest performances came in areas surrounding the University of Utah and Brigham Young University, in line with Warren's typical overperformance in areas filled with White postgrad liberals.

UTAH
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Republicans in Utah also held a closed primary, with 40 delegates to be allocated based on statewide results. If a candidate earns an absolute majority, that candidate receives all 40 delegates; otherwise, candidates will be allocated delegates proportionally either amongst any candidates who receive at least 15 percent of the vote or altogether depending on the results.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ben Sasse - 18.34 percent (11 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 17.46 percent (10 delegates)
Mike Pence - 16.42 percent (10 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 15.95 percent (9 delegates)
Ted Cruz - 12.11 percent
Mike Pompeo - 7.63 percent
Chris Christie - 4.39 percent
Larry Hogan - 3.24 percent
Candace Owens - 1.41 percent
[Remaining 3.05 percent went to other candidates, including 2.41 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 230 delegates +9 from Utah
Nikki Haley - 158 delegates +10 from Utah
Mike Pence - 88 delegates +10 from Utah
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 32 delegates +11 from Utah
Mike Pompeo - 16 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

By the skin of his teeth, Sasse wins his first state as a strong showing amongst Utah's LDS voters (for which "starter pack" memes relating to Mormons now include yard signs for the Nebraska U.S. Senator) enables him to overtop Haley, Pence and DeSantis in the primary vote totals. Cruz's hard fall from 2016 - when he dominated Utah's then-Republican caucus and Donald Trump won a paltry 13 percent - may in large part be attributed to voters believing that Cruz "sold out" to Trump in the wake of the latter's intense criticism during the 2016 presidential primaries; many Utahns also do not believe that the 2020 election was "stolen". Pompeo, another Republican who has steadfastly defended Trump, also underperformed in this state. Moderates Christie and Hogan gained zero traction with more moderate Republicans who largely migrated to Haley or Sasse, and Owens had virtually no support statewide.

Speaking of Cruz, here's a very big primary result...

TEXAS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

With 162 delegates - 114 at the congressional level and 48 statewide - Texas is the second-biggest prize on the Republican ledger despite its rival California (the largest at 169) having ZERO extra delegates besides the congressional and standard 13 delegated to at-large delegates and party leaders. For each congressional district, an absolute winner wins all three delegates, the top candidate with at least 20 percent of the vote wins two delegates followed by the runner-up with 1, or the top three vote-getters each get a delegate. For statewide delegates, an absolute majority winner gets all 48 at-large delegates, multiple 20 percent vote recipients split the delegates, a lone candidate crossing the 20 percent threshold plus the runner-up splits the delegates, or all candidates receive delegates proportionally.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 21.89 percent
Ted Cruz - 16.22 percent
Mike Pence - 14.18 percent
Nikki Haley - 13.96 percent
Ben Sasse - 11.46 percent
Mike Pompeo - 8.22 percent
Chris Christie - 6.96 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.94 percent
Candace Owens - 2.22 percent
[Remaining 2.45 percent went to other candidates, including 1.44 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Tyler, Texarkana & Longview (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD2/Beaumont, Lufkin & Livingston (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD3/Plano & McKinney (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD4/Frisco, Sherman & Rockwall (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD5/Terrell, Garland & Palestine (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ted Cruz 1
CD6/Arlington, Waxahachie & Corsicana (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD7/Houston (West & Southwest) & Bellaire (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD8/Conroe, College Station & Mexia (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD9/Galveston, Mont Belvieu & Deer Park (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ted Cruz 1
CD10/Cedar Park, Brenham & Lockhart (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Ted Cruz 1
CD11/Midland, San Angelo & Brownwood (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD12/Fort Worth (North & West), Irving & North Richland Hills (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Ted Cruz 1
CD13/Amarillo, Wichita Falls & Denton (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1
CD14/Sugar Land, Lake Jackson & Columbus (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD15/Weslaco, Seguin & Rio Grande City (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD16/El Paso (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD17/Waco, Weatherford & Cleburne (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ted Cruz 1
CD18/Houston (Midtown, Northeast & Bush IAH) (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1
CD19/Lubbock, Abilene & Mineral Wells (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1, Ted Cruz 1
CD20/San Antonio (Downtown & Northwest), Leon Valley & Windcrest (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD21/San Antonio (North, Camp Bullis), Kerrville & Marble Falls (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ted Cruz 1
CD22/Katy, Cypress & Sealy (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ted Cruz 1
CD23/Helotes, San Elizario & Del Rio (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD24/Dallas (Downtown, West & East) & Grand Prairie (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1
CD25/Houston (South Side, Alief), Stafford & Mission Bend (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD26/Lewisville, Decatur & Keller (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD27/Corpus Christi (Downtown, West), McAllen & Alice (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Ted Cruz 1
CD28/San Antonio (South, Lackland AFB), Laredo & Schertz (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Ted Cruz 1, Mike Pence 1
CD29/Houston (Downtown, North & Southeast), Pasadena & Baytown (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD30/Dallas (South), Balch Springs & De Soto (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Mike Pence 1
CD31/Temple, Georgetown & Fort Hood (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Mike Pence 1, Mike Pompeo 1
CD32/Dallas (North, Park Cities), Richardson & Carrollton (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ben Sasse 1
CD33/Fort Worth (Central, South & East), Arlington ("Jerry World") & Bedford (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1
CD34/Brownsville, Corpus Christi (East) & Rockport (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD35/San Antonio (East), Austin (East) & San Marcos (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD36/The Woodlands, Kingwood & Magnolia (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD37/Austin (Downtown, North & SW), Pflugerville & West Lake Hills (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Ben Sasse 1
CD38/Houston (Northwest, Heights), Memorial Villages & Tomball (3 delegates):
Ted Cruz 2, Ron DeSantis 1
Statewide, at-large (48 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 28, Ted Cruz 20

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 303 delegates +73 from Texas
Nikki Haley - 170 delegates +12 from Texas
Mike Pence - 101 delegates +13 from Texas
Ted Cruz - 67 delegates +61 from Texas
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 34 delegates +2 from Texas
Mike Pompeo - 17 delegates +1 from Texas
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Thanks in no small part due to Cruz winning a sizable number of "sympathy" and "favorite son" votes from Texans despite his obviously meager chances of winning the presidential nomination, the race appears surprisingly close. However, Cruz still finishes in second place as DeSantis wins Texas with nearly 22 percent of the vote, with both men being the only ones to win statewide delegates. DeSantis wins a whopping 73 delegates (including 28 statewide), followed by Cruz with 61 delegates (including 20 statewide). Pence wins 13 delegates, mostly in rural and East Texas (the latter a largely populist region from Tyler to Beaumont that has been trending strongly Republican under both George W. Bush and Donald Trump), while Haley wins 12 delegates with most of her stronger showings coming in urban Texas and in particular the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Sasse manages to win two delegates - one in north Dallas and another in Austin (including the Texas State Capitol as well as the "Forty Acres" of the University of Texas at Austin where Sasse was once a part-time professor), while even Pompeo manages to win enough votes in and around Fort Hood and nearby Killeen to himself win a delegate in the Central Texas-based 31st District.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #152 on: May 14, 2022, 04:32:39 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2022, 01:52:42 PM by SaintStan86 »

It is now 11PM on the East Coast, and in California, the time is now 8PM and polls have closed. The sizable number of mail-in ballots in the Golden State guarantee that the results will be unclear throughout the overnight. However, some close states can now finally be called...

TEXAS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Texas Democrats will award 244 delegates, including 159 at the district level and the remaining 85 statewide. In an unusual twist, the district delegates will come from the 31 districts of the Texas Senate - whose districts actually have a larger population than the state's 38 congressional districts. The usual DNC delegate allocation math remains the same.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 32.18 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 25.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 15.74 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 11.11 percent
Jared Polis - 8.67 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 6.41 percent
(Remaining 0.26 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
SD1/Tyler, Texarkana & Longview (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 1
SD2/Waxahachie, Terrell & Palestine (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD3/Beaumont, Lufkin & Liberty (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Roy Cooper 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD4/The Woodlands, College Station & Centerville (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD5/Waco, Georgetown & La Grange (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD6/Houston (North & Southeast), Pasadena & Baytown (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD7/Cypress, Spring & Memorial Villages (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD8/Plano, McKinney & Frisco (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD9/Dallas (West), Arlington & Irving (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD10/Fort Worth, Bedford & North Richland Hills (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD11/Galveston, Kingwood & League City (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Jared Polis 1
SD12/Lewisville, Carrollton & Keller (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD13/Houston (Downtown, South & Northeast) (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 3
SD14/Austin (Downtown, North & East), Pflugerville & Creedmoor (10 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Jared Polis 1
SD15/Houston (SW, Heights & Bush IAH) & Jersey Village (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD16/Dallas (North, Park Cities), Garland & Richardson (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD17/Houston (West), Katy & Sugar Land (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD18/Pearland, Brenham & Bay City (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD19/San Antonio (Northwest), Schertz & Gonzales (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD20/Corpus Christi (West), McAllen & Victoria (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD21/Laredo, Del Rio & Odessa (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD22/Weatherford, Arlington (Southwest) & Cleburne (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD23/Dallas (Downtown & South), Mesquite & De Soto (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD24/Austin (SW & NW), San Angelo & Fredericksburg (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD25/San Antonio (North), San Marcos & Kerrville (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD26/San Antonio (Downtown, Northwest & East) (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3
SD27/Brownsville, Corpus Christi (East) & Rockport (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
SD28/Midland, Killeen & Abilene (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
SD29/El Paso, Fort Stockton & Marfa (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD30/Wichita Falls, Denton & Sherman (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
SD31/Amarillo, Lubbock & Snyder (2 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (32 delegates):
Kamala Harris 14, Elizabeth Warren 11, Pete Buttigieg 7
At-Large Delegates (53 delegates):
Kamala Harris 23, Elizabeth Warren 19, Pete Buttigieg 11

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 536 delegates +118 from Texas
Elizabeth Warren - 320 delegates +82 from Texas
Pete Buttigieg - 96 delegates +39 from Texas
Roy Cooper - 66 delegates +2 from Texas
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 15 delegates +3 from Texas
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris won 26 of 31 Texas Senate district delegations, en route to winning 81 SD delegates across the state and winning at least one delegate in every district from Beaumont to El Paso. The other five districts - including two covering the Texas Hill Country, urban districts in Austin and Houston and the Texas Panhandle - were all won by Warren in part due to such factors as either a large White liberal population or the relative lack of a sizable bloc of Black Democrats. Warren would go on to win 52 SD delegates, followed by 21 for Buttigieg (who performed strongly in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex as well as in urban parts of Austin and Houston with large LGBTQ+ populations), 3 for Polis (each in SDs where Elon Musk's business interests have a sizable stake, notably excluding his SpaceX port in south Texas) and two for Cooper in the East Texas-based 1st and 3rd SDs. At the state level, Harris won 37 delegates, followed by Warren with 30 and Buttigieg with 18.

Editor's note: Both the Republican and Democratic results use the Texas congressional (GOP) and state senate (Dem) maps modified followed the court-order redraw in this TL.

NORTH CAROLINA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

North Carolina has the third largest prize tonight for the GOP, with 75 delegates including 42 at the congressional level to be handed out. Any candidate who is alone in winning over 2/3 of the vote or 20 percent of the vote will be entitled to all three of a district's delegates; otherwise, either the winner will get 2 delegates and the runner-up 1 if 2 or more candidates win 20 percent of the vote or the top three vote-getters will each receive a delegate. Candidates who receive 20 percent or more of the vote statewide will be proportionally allocated statewide delegates. (Editor's note: In this TL, the districts being used for this as well as the Democratic primary result later on are the modified ones the newly Republican state Supreme Court tweaked.)

Statewide Results of Primary:
Nikki Haley - 27.18 percent
Ron DeSantis - 22.73 percent
Mike Pence - 20.86 percent
Ted Cruz - 8.52 percent
Ben Sasse - 5.96 percent
Mike Pompeo - 4.22 percent
Larry Hogan - 4.16 percent
Chris Christie - 2.99 percent
Candace Owens - 2.71 percent
[Remaining 0.67 percent went to other candidates, including 0.42 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Greenville, Wilson & Edenton (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Mike Pence 1
CD2/Raleigh, Garner & Wake Forest (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD3/Jacksonville, Cape Hatteras & New Bern (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD4/Durham, Chapel Hill & Cary (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD5/Winston-Salem, Mount Airy & Boone (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD6/Greensboro, Burlington & Reidsville (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD7/Wilmington, Fayetteville & Lumberton (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD8/High Point, Rockingham & Pinehurst (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD9/Concord, Lexington & Monroe (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD10/Cornelius, Hickory & Morganton (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD11/Asheville, Marion & Franklin (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Mike Pence 1
CD12/Charlotte (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD13/Fuquay-Varina, Pittsboro & Smithfield (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD14/Charlotte (South), Gastonia & Shelby (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
Statewide, at-large (33 delegates):
Nikki Haley 13, Ron DeSantis 10, Mike Pence 10

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 317 delegates +14 from North Carolina
Nikki Haley - 219 delegates +49 from North Carolina
Mike Pence - 113 delegates +12 from North Carolina
Ted Cruz - 67 delegates
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 34 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

As expected, Haley romped in North Carolina, especially in more suburban areas as well as areas closer to the South Carolina border including Charlotte, Wilmington and Asheville, though DeSantis did have a decent showing in the Piedmont region west of Winston-Salem, as well as the ancestrally conservative Unifour region northwest of the Charlotte metro area and in the suburbs and exurbs south of Raleigh. Pence's strongest showings were in eastern and western rural North Carolina, where he garnered more than 25 percent of the vote while performing under 15 percent in the urban cores of the state.

NORTH CAROLINA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

North Carolina Democrats will award 116 delegates, including 76 at the congressional level. The delegates have been allocated according to the new congressional map drawn by the newly-Republican state Supreme Court, which tweaked the previous map drawn by the then-Democratic majority to make it friendlier to Republicans.

Results of Primary:
Roy Cooper - 39.71 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 21.58 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 19.71 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 12.86 percent
Jared Polis - 3.41 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.18 percent
(Remaining 0.55 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Greenville, Wilson & Edenton (6 delegates):
Roy Cooper 4, Kamala Harris 2
CD2/Raleigh, Garner & Wake Forest (8 delegates):
Roy Cooper 5, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Jacksonville, Cape Hatteras & New Bern (4 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Durham, Chapel Hill & Cary (8 delegates):
Roy Cooper 5, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD5/Winston-Salem, Mount Airy & Boone (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD6/Greensboro, Burlington & Reidsville (6 delegates):
Roy Cooper 4, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Wilmington, Fayetteville & Lumberton (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD8/High Point, Rockingham & Pinehurst (4 delegates):
Roy Cooper 2, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Concord, Lexington & Monroe (4 delegates):
Roy Cooper 2, Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD10/Cornelius, Hickory & Morganton (4 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Kamala Harris 1
CD11/Asheville, Marion & Franklin (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD12/Charlotte (7 delegates):
Roy Cooper 4, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD13/Fuquay-Varina, Pittsboro & Smithfield (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD14/Charlotte (South), Gastonia & Shelby (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (15 delegates):
Roy Cooper 7, Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 4
At-Large Delegates (25 delegates):
Roy Cooper 12, Kamala Harris 7, Elizabeth Warren 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 561 delegates +25 from North Carolina
Elizabeth Warren - 342 delegates +22 from North Carolina
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates +66 from North Carolina
Pete Buttigieg - 99 delegates +3 from North Carolina
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 15 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

As expected, Cooper won convincingly in his home state with nearly 40 percent of the vote, winning every congressional district and the majority of statewide delegates with 47 congressional and 19 statewide delegates. Harris performed more strongly in areas with sizable Black populations, winning a total of 25 delegates - 14 from congressional districts and 11 at-large, while Warren won most of her delegates in areas with large percentages of White liberals, winning at least one of 12 congressional delegates in 11 districts (including two in the Tobacco Road-based 4th District which includes the UNC and Duke campuses). Buttigieg, while not winning any at-large delegates, did manage to win three delegates in congressional districts covering suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh as well as the Asheville area.

VIRGINIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Virginia Republicans will award 50 delegates to candidates in tonight's open presidential primary, including 33 at the congressional level. To qualify for delegates, candidates must win a minimum of the equivalent of 1/50 - 2 percent of the vote - to earn at least one delegate. Accordingly, delegates will be awarded proportionally.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 25.73 percent (13 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 24.14 percent (12 delegates)
Mike Pence - 16.13 percent (8 delegates)
Larry Hogan - 8.80 percent (4 delegates)
Ted Cruz - 7.14 percent (4 delegates)
Chris Christie - 5.70 percent (3 delegates)
Mike Pompeo - 5.52 percent (3 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 3.84 percent (2 delegates)
Candace Owens - 2.01 percent (1 delegate)
[Remaining 0.99 percent went to other candidates, including 0.52 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 330 delegates +13 from Virginia
Nikki Haley - 231 delegates +12 from Virginia
Mike Pence - 121 delegates +8 from Virginia
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates +4 from Virginia
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates +4 from Virginia
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates +2 from Virginia
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates +3 from Virginia
Chris Christie - 19 delegates +3 from Virginia
Candace Owens - 2 delegates +1 from Virginia
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 7 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Gov. Glenn Youngkin's endorsement proved to be a game changer in DeSantis's victory here, on top of his earlier endorsement from former President Donald Trump, enabling him to eclipse Haley who had been narrowly leading in statewide polls before the South Carolina and Nevada contests. Both frontrunners combined to win half of the delegates, with DeSantis performing strongest in the Richmond suburbs, Haley performing strongest in the Hampton Roads area, and the vote-rich Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. split between the two with Fairfax County narrowly favoring Haley and exurban Loudoun and Prince William counties narrowly favoring DeSantis. Pence, whose 8 delegates amounted to the top three winning two-thirds of the statewide total, performed strongest in southwest and Southside Virginia where he won endorsements from U.S. Reps. Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith, notwithstanding their objections to the 2020 presidential election which Pence certified over intense criticism from Trump and his supporters.

Among other Republicans, Hogan's favorite son status from Maryland extended over to NoVA where he won as much as under 15 percent of the vote in Fairfax County. However, Hogan's appeal outside of the DMV was very limited (as in under 5 percent of the vote), but he still managed to win four delegates, as did Cruz whose best performance was in the Richmond suburbs as well as such far-flung areas of Northern Virginia as Culpeper and Fredericksburg. Eight of the other nine delegates statewide were split between three delegates for Christie (whose best performance was in Northern Virginia) and Pompeo (whose best performance was in Hampton Roads) as well as two for Sasse (who performed well in the college towns of Charlottesville and Blacksburg as well as the suburban areas outside of Richmond and NoVA) and one for Owens (whose strongest base was in Southside Virginia, home to a sizable Black conservative minority).
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #153 on: May 14, 2022, 04:55:44 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2022, 01:53:13 PM by SaintStan86 »

The results in California and Colorado are still outstanding and will likely not be reported until at least Wednesday morning. However, American Samoa's closed caucuses did close at 7PM - which translates to 11PM on the East Coast. America has now gone to bed, but the results have already become known to the general public...

AMERICAN SAMOA
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

American Samoa doesn't utilize party affiliations, and the territorial party instead handles its own voter registration. Six pledged delegates will be allocated based on the DNC delegate math for tonight's results.

Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Kamala Harris - 55.21 percent (Qualified to earn delegates) - 4 delegates
Elizabeth Warren - 18.94 percent (Qualified to earn delegates) - 2 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 14.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 4.10 percent
Jared Polis - 3.84 percent
Roy Cooper - 3.52 percent
(Remaining 0.25 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 565 delegates +4 from American Samoa
Elizabeth Warren - 344 delegates +2 from American Samoa
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 99 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 15 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Perhaps due to her familiarity as Vice President and her being from California, Harris scored a resounding win with four of the six pledged delegates. Warren polls competitively enough to win two delegates.

AMERICAN SAMOA
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

As with the Democrats, Republicans also handle their own voter rolls for their territorial caucus. However, unlike the Democrats, Republicans have chosen to select delegates who are unbound to any candidate, as they did in 2016 before ultimately endorsing Donald Trump, with the nine elected delegates pledging to support the presumptive Republican nominee once he or she is the last candidate standing.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 330 delegates
Nikki Haley - 231 delegates
Mike Pence - 121 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 16 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

While California and Colorado continue to be counted, early reports out of both states indicate that Harris has won her home state of California by a massive margin while the mail-in based-primary in Colorado is expected to be a horserace between Harris and Warren with favorite son Polis playing the role of spoiler. For the GOP, DeSantis is believed to be ahead by a sizable margin in California and in a dead heat with Haley in Colorado. The exact results though, unsurprisingly, are not immediately known at press time.

UPDATE: I have nailed it again on my predictions: Jim Pillen will face Carol Blood in November and is the favorite to become Nebraska's next Governor both IRL and in this TL, while former Nebraska Legislature Speaker and the owner of a network of broadcast stations called News Channel Nebraska, Mike Flood, will be on his way to Congress in November, and will likely be taking office from the current and future 1st Districts (assuming the former this summer both IRL and in this TL). And in West Virginia, Alex Mooney has defeated David McKinley in the GOP primary for the new 2nd District connecting Mooney's exurban DMV Eastern Panhandle base to McKinley's Morgantown/Mon County base. A notable update indeed, but certainly a walk in the park compared to what is about to happen next week, especially in Pennsylvania...
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« Reply #154 on: May 14, 2022, 07:13:01 AM »

Congrats Governor Ron DeSantis and Vice President Harris to be the respective Party Nominees.
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« Reply #155 on: May 15, 2022, 02:26:41 AM »

March 5, 2024
DeSANTIS DOMINATES SUPER TUESDAY AS GOP PICTURE BEGINS TO CRYSTALLIZE
The Republican picture became even more clear on Super Tuesday as voters in 17 states along with the District of Columbia and American Samoa went to the polls to cast their preferences for their party's presidential nomination. As expected, given its focus on Southern states as well as the important Baltimore-Washington corridor, Super Tuesday belonged to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won the night with a whopping 315 delegates - over 40 percent of the 748 delegates that were bound to candidates on Tuesday, with another 16 pledged to the convention unbound. This does not include the numbers out of California and Colorado, whose primary votes were still being counted as mail-in ballots in both states continue to trickle in, though DeSantis is thought to have an advantage in those states as well.

Speaking before a packed crowd at the iconic Fairmont Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles, where Ronald Reagan once stayed many times over his presidency and beyond, DeSantis declared "Just like Ronald Reagan himself declared 'The Time Is Now for Strong Leadership', those same words are ringing true tonight!" DeSantis also encouraged Republicans to "not get complacent" and "keep the momentum going through the June (congressional) primaries" and
"all the way to November the 5th!", without boasting explicitly of his new frontrunner status in the Republican presidential battle. DeSantis won eight states - all but one of them in the South - with his biggest margins coming in Alabama and Mississippi where he performed particularly well in the traditionally Republican southern coastal regions of both states. DeSantis also won over 30 percent of the vote in Tennessee and Arkansas, and was also the only candidate to win over 20 percent of the vote in Texas and Oklahoma while narrowly defeating his closest rival, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, in Virginia by a nearly two percent margin. DeSantis also narrowly held off Haley in Delaware which, while technically not a Southern state, is more aligned with the South going south from Wilmington (particularly Sussex County where DeSantis won over 35 percent of the vote).

DeSantis now holds over 330 delegates bound to his candidacy, followed by 231 for early frontrunner Haley, who won 157 delegates on Tuesday. Her biggest win came in North Carolina, where Haley benefited particularly in the western parts of the state as well as in communities adjacent to her home state of South Carolina for a total of 49 delegates. Unlike DeSantis though, her victory margins were closer with her North Carolina win coming by less than five percent over DeSantis. Speaking at the Ballantyne Hotel in Charlotte, just three miles from the South Carolina state line, Haley proclaimed "We are in this to win it, and when we go to Michigan, to Missouri, Louisiana, all the way to Pennsylvania and Georgia, we are going to finish strong!" In addition to winning North Carolina, Haley also won the northeastern states of Massachusetts, Maine and Vermont while coming close to DeSantis in Virginia, where she won in Fairfax County as well as the Hampton Roads area.

Former Vice President Mike Pence won 107 delegates on Tuesday, but only won the state of Minnesota by a narrow margin over DeSantis as Pence benefited from strong support in rural Minnesota, whereas his biggest rivals battled for voters in the Twin Cities suburbs outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Speaking before a crowd at the Gaylord Opryland Resort in Nashville, Pence declared "It may seem very difficult, but I think once we get to the Midwest we are going to prevail", pointing to competitive polling numbers in Michigan and Missouri (whose voters will cast their votes next Tuesday), as well as in Arizona, Georgia and Ohio. "This is definitely not over folks. We've been knocked down before, but we're going to get up again and never let the naysayers bring us down", paraphrasing the famous line from a popular 1990s song. (One pundit even proclaimed: "Forget 'Bible Thumping'...Mike Pence is about to go 'Tubthumping' hoping his long shot strategy will stick!"). Pence now has 121 delegates for third place overall, and has vowed to stay in the race through March 19th (when his home state of Indiana and several other Midwestern states are set to go to the polls).

However, for some candidates the writing was on the wall. Despite obviously benefiting from primaries in his home state and surrounding ones being moved up to Super Tuesday, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan ended his presidential campaign on Tuesday. Speaking before supporters in Annapolis, Hogan thanked his supporters for "this great long journey we all got to ride together on", acknowledging his wins in Maryland and the District of Columbia with no regrets. "If we're going to go out in style, we're going to do it right here in Maryland, because nowhere else in America will you find heroes like you and me", referencing to his supporters and his now iconic "Hogan's Heroes" spotlights on veterans, first responders and other "everyday heroes" who supported his campaign. In addition to winning Maryland and Washington, D.C., Hogan also polled competitively in Delaware and Vermont and performed competitively in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. and won a total of 58 delegates - only five of which were won outside of the states covering the DMV, and all but one of which were won on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie ended his campaign on Wednesday morning, having won only 19 delegates including 13 on Tuesday with delegates won in Maine, Vermont and Virginia. Speaking from the steps of his house in Mendham Township outside of New York City, Christie acknowledged "the difficult road ahead for our campaign going forward" in announcing his decision to drop out of the Republican presidential nomination. "We have done a lot to run a great campaign, but it is obviously not good enough", as he thanked his supporters while also proclaiming his support for the winner of the Republican presidential nomination. "There is too much at stake to hand this country back over to the same people who hold it now and are not doing a good job of running it", said Christie. And after only winning 20 delegates including 10 on Super Tuesday, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also ended his campaign. "The voters have spoken, and after much heartfelt consideration with everyone, I am conceding this race for the Republican nomination for President to our eventual winner", spoke Pompeo to his supporters at the Renaissance Hotel in Tulsa.

Perhaps the biggest concession of the night came from Sen. Ted Cruz. Despite winning 65 delegates on Tuesday - 61 in his home state of Texas and 4 in Virginia - and coming in second place in the Lone Star State, it was not enough for the one-time 2016 presidential darling as Cruz faded away in the run-up to Super Tuesday. Exit polls pointed to competition from other candidates, as well as a perception both nationally and at home in Texas that his principles had become "fleeting", pointing to his evolution from calling on delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention to "vote your conscience" to becoming one of Trump's most loyal foot soldiers in the Senate, among other controversies. In the end, Cruz only won a grand total of 71 delegates - well short of the 1,250 needed to clinch the GOP nomination. Nonetheless, the ballroom at the Westin Galleria in Houston was packed as he made his campaign swan song. "I want to thank you, the people of Texas, for putting your trust in me over these last 12 years and two presidential campaigns. It has been the greatest honor to serve you as your Senator, and while this marks the end of my presidential campaign - as well as my career in public office, I want to assure you that I will never stop fighting for you the people of this great country". To that extent, Cruz vowed to spend the remaining ten months of his Senate term "defending our liberties and our Constitution to the fullest extent, so that when our next Republican President takes office, at least I will have done my part to limit some of the damage that President Biden has done to America".

Two other candidates have vowed to march on with their candidacies despite increasingly unfavorable odds of winning the GOP nod. At the Marriott at Park Meadows south of Denver, Sen. Ben Sasse addressed his supporters in addition to acknowledging his narrow win in Utah, where he took advantage of a split between the top three candidates as well as strong support from a largely Trump-skeptic Mormon vote to win his first state of the campaign with 11 of his 23 delegates gained tonight. "Utah is only the beginning for us, and even if they say our chances are not that great, who cares? We enjoy what we're doing here, and we are headed onward to Louisiana and beyond to give voters who crave a serious conservative conversation a real choice, a real sea change from the bipartisan muck that got America where she is now". And speaking before supporters at the Omni Hotel in downtown Nashville, commentator Candace Owens also vowed to march on, "To those of you who miss the days of Donald Trump and worry the so-called frontrunners won't fully deliver - I offer you a real choice, and I will give you that choice to the very end". While a far cry from Sasse's total haul of 36 delegates, Owens actually doubled her delegate count - winning her second delegate in Virginia tonight.

While California and Colorado remain outstanding as of early Wednesday morning, Saturday will present a closed primary in Louisiana as well as two territorial caucuses in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, followed by next Tuesday's contests in six states - Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington state - that will put Republicans over the halfway mark in terms of total delegates handed out, followed by a debate later that week in Atlanta and a final round of Tuesday contests in eight large states that could seal the deal for the eventual Republican nominee.

February 5, 2024
HARRIS DOMINATES SUPER TUESDAY AS DEMOCRATIC FIELD IS CUT IN HALF
Super Tuesday proved to be a banner night for Vice President Kamala Harris as she gained some size in her frontrunner status between herself and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. With victories in 10 states and the District of Columbia, plus the territorial caucus in American Samoa, Harris won a staggering 500 delegates on Tuesday including convincing wins in President Joe Biden's home state of Delaware (where she won nearly two-thirds of the vote) as well as in Mississippi, Maryland, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and Virginia (the latter of which saw her competition largely split between three other candidates) where she dominated amongst Black voters who make up a large part of the Democratic voter base nationally. In addition, Harris also scored narrow wins in Texas, Utah and Minnesota, where she held off favorite daughter Sen. Amy Klobuchar on the strength of her strong performance in the Twin Cities area. And as the night progressed, returns showed Harris with a commanding lead in her home state of California as well as a modest margin in Colorado.

Speaking before a crowd at the Hyatt Regency Hotel near San Francisco International Airport, Harris proclaimed "Our finest hour as a country has arrived", and also gave thanks to her supporters - informally known as the #KHive - for their continuous support for her campaign. In addition, Harris also stated "There is so much more to do before we get to Milwaukee, and that is for us to keep fighting hard for every voter that believes in the power of the people to make change in America happen". Assuming Harris's dominance in California is significant enough along with a strong showing in Colorado, the Vice President could be at the halfway mark by week's end along with contests in Louisiana and in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands on Saturday, well past the 563 pledged delegates won overall.

Warren, meanwhile addressed her supporters at the Omni Hotel in her childhood hometown of Oklahoma City after winning 294 delegates, adding to her 49 delegates already won before Super Tuesday. "Tonight, the campaign moves forward with greater optimism than before, because when we get to the Midwest, where we have gained support from a number of Trump voters, we are going to send a message to Kamala Harris", alluding to Obama voters who shifted to the former President in 2016 and 2020 in Rust Belt states. Warren won her biggest victory in her adopted home state of Massachusetts as well as her most delegates in Texas - where despite coming in second to Harris she won 82 pledged delegate and in her younger years attended the University of Houston and spent her young adult years in Houston. Warren also won in the New England states of Vermont and Maine in addition to her native Oklahoma.

The massive wins by Harris and Warren further solidified the Democratic primary as a two-way street between Harris and Warren, and to no great surprise the candidate field folded in half as Super Tuesday results rolled in. Despite running a frenetic campaign in Colorado, Gov. Jared Polis appeared to still trail Harris - albeit by a narrow margin - while faring even worse elsewhere sans for neighboring Utah, where he was still mired in a battle for third place with Warren behind Harris and former Sec. Pete Buttigieg. At the Hyatt Regency in Denver, Polis announced he was suspending his campaign, "We have given it our all and never looked back, but in the end the voters have spoken peacefully and with dignity, and to that end it is time for me to step aside and watch this race play out going forward". Thanking his supporters for their undying passion and loyalty within his campaign, Polis also announced he was "looking forward to returning to your State Capitol tomorrow to do the business of the people of Colorado, who have always been my first love". Asides from the California and Colorado results, Polis only won seven delegates on Super Tuesday in Utah and Texas, doubling his total delegate count to 14.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper also ended his presidential campaign on Tuesday despite a convincing win in North Carolina, where he won nearly 40 percent of the vote and 66 delegates out of his 117 gained during the night, boosting his total delegate count from 15 to 132. "Carolina has always been on my mind, and tomorrow morning I am going back to what I do best: serving as your Governor here in North Carolina!", said Cooper to his audience at the Raleigh Convention Center near the state capitol in Raleigh as he thanked his supporters. Klobuchar also ended her campaign, having come up short of winning her home state of Minnesota by less than two percent to Harris. "I regret to inform y'all, after much prayer and thought, that this is the end for our campaign. It didn't have to end this way, but in the end we respect the will of the voters and their dignity, and therefore I am here to thank everyone for your support and camaraderie during this campaign, and for giving me the opportunity to serve you as your Senator here in Minnesota for 18 years", Klobuchar announced in her concession speech at the Hilton Hotel in downtown Minneapolis after having only won 28 delegates in Minnesota to finish with 33 delegates.

One candidate, however, is moving forward with his campaign despite increasingly insurmountable odds for the Democratic nomination. In his address to supporters at a park on the Colorado River waterfront in downtown Austin, Buttigieg proclaimed "They say everything is bigger in Texas, and our campaign certainly is bigger than what others may suggest it is. That means we are going forward to Louisiana, to Michigan, all the way back home again in Indiana - where our campaign is going to get past the crossroads of America to Milwaukee". Despite only winning 82 delegates to expand his pledged delegate count to 97, Buttigieg stressed the importance of the Midwest to his campaign: "The Rust Belt is holding the key, and we're going to take it in these next two weeks!". As expected, "chief campaign host" David Letterman was in attendance, and quipped during his speech that followed Buttigieg's that "if anyone wants to join me at the Circuit of the Americas, I encourage you to come on along - first one to the race track gets this free goodie bag!" (filled with Buttigieg campaign gear as well as what turned out to be a photograph and dinner package with Buttigieg according to one media report later in the week).

Stay tuned for the California and Colorado results, as well as the results of the "first in the nation" congressional primary results in Texas, including the race for Ted Cruz's open Senate seat...
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #156 on: May 16, 2022, 03:34:52 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2022, 10:32:25 PM by SaintStan86 »

March 5, 2024
RUNOFFS SET IN KEY TEXAS SENATE, CONGRESSIONAL BATTLES
In addition to casting their votes for President, voters across Texas also cast ballots for several key races across the Lone Star State in their "first in the nation" general primary. As political writer Gromer Jeffers Jr. for The Dallas Morning News wrote, "The contours of the 2024 election - and perhaps others going forward - begin right here in Texas", with several key congressional battles and a nasty, expensive primary for an open Senate seat among the headlines that dominated Texas airwaves on the news - and during commercials in between February primetime sweeps.

While outgoing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz was feting revelers at a campaign watch party in Houston that turned out to be the "swan song" for his Republican presidential race on Tuesday, the high-stakes Republican primary for his Senate seat was whittled down to two competitors, but not after a slew of nasty accusations between the candidates, a sexual tryst involving two consultants working on dueling campaigns, two fringe provocateurs attempting to sabotage the primary with baseless accusations against their better-funded and more visible rivals, and a riot during one debate in Houston that provoked sharp criticism from not only both parties but also from the news media as well, with President Joe Biden even going as far as calling donors to campaigns in this race "contributors to political terrorism" - a remark that inflamed anger from conservative talk radio hosts and commentators already incensed at a President some Republicans continue to consider 'illegitimate'.

Emerging out of the crowded and chaotic field on Tuesday was U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw who won 23.6 percent of the vote, with his strongest base of support in the Houston area where he has served in Congress for three terms and won the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle. He will face off in the runoff against another three-term U.S. Rep., Lance Gooden, who won 20.4 percent with his strongest performance coming in his home base around Dallas where he also won the endorsement of The Dallas Morning News and fellow U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who lost his congressional seat in the same cycle Gooden won his first term in (he has since returned to Congress from the 17th District stretching from Fort Worth to Waco). The runoff will set up a classic Houston vs. Dallas showdown, with the winner expected to unite a contentious Republican electorate against a very ambitious Democratic Party aiming to win the seat after coming close in 2018 with Beto O'Rourke. Democrats, meanwhile, will see themselves go into a somewhat unexpected runoff with former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro winning 38.4 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary to 36.2 percent for retired astronaut Scott Kelly, whose twin brother is current U.S. Senator Mark Kelly.

While the Democratic runoff is expected to be a one-two battle between two heavyweights, the Republican runoff is expected to be an up-for-grabs affair given that more than half of Texas voters, mostly concentrated in the I-35 corridor between San Antonio, Austin and Waco, voted for someone else other than the two frontrunners. Coming in third place was U.S. Rep. Chip Roy with 16.5 percent despite winning endorsements from noted conservative activists and groups, followed by outgoing Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick with 12.9 percent, former Texas GOP Chairman and former Florida U.S. Rep. Allen West with 9.9 percent, and U.S. Rep. Roger Williams (who is vacating his seat to fellow incumbent Sessions) with 7.4 percent. Amongst the remaining 9.3 percent, three other Republicans who generated buzz in certain political circles failed to make sizable gains. Flamboyant former Travis County GOP Chairman Rob Morrow, who generated controversy for his personal attacks against his rivals as well as baseless innuendos and pictures of nearly-naked swimsuit models, only managed to muster 2.9 percent and wasn't even present for his own watch party, as he was booked in the Travis County jail on charges of drunk driving and public lewdness after being arrested naked on the MOPAC northwest of downtown Austin. Meanwhile, former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, who was endorsed by critics of former President Donald Trump and was headlined at a recent gathering of "Never Trumpers", won only 3.3 percent in his own race for the Senate, while InfoWars host and conspiracy theorist Harrison Smith, who frequently promoted 'white genocide' on his podcasts and during his campaign, won a mere 1.1 percent with the remaining two percent divided between six other low-profile Republicans.

Meanwhile, several congressional races on the GOP side will be headed to runoffs with some exceptions under new lines drawn in response to court rulings that outed some districts due to allegations of diluted Hispanic voting power as well as the packing of Democratic votes into "enclave districts". Most of the major congressional activity was in the Houston area, home to one major NRCC target within Houston and three high-stakes Republican primary battles in the suburbs. In the 7th District, now redrawn to cover a largely moderate stretch of west and southwest Houston that voted three times for Gov. Greg Abbott and twice against Trump, local Big Brothers Big Sisters executive director and Bush family scion Pierce Bush and former Houston City Council member Greg Travis will enter a runoff for the right to face embattled Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher. Meanwhile, in the 36th District (formerly the 2nd, now anchored in Houston's northern suburbs from The Woodlands to Kingwood), a Republican runoff between former Crenshaw consultant Matthew Wiltshire and former Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Mike Sullivan will serve as the real contest in the heavily Republican district being vacated by Crenshaw, as will other runoffs in the Galveston-based 9th District between first-term State Sen. Mayes Middleton and Galveston County Judge Mark Henry and the south suburban-based 14th District (Sugar Land, Pearland, etc.) where Fort Bend County GOP Chairman Bobby Eberle and former Pearland City Council member Gary Moore will go to a runoff as well. Both districts have nominally been shifted northward in redistricting with the 9th being the old 14th of retiring Republican Randy Weber and the new 14th replacing the old 27th.

Whereas Republicans in Houston ended the night with several competitive runoffs in three GOP-held seats and one Democrat-held target, Democrats also had their own fair share of competitive primaries in two historically Black, heavily Democratic districts. In the 25th District (restored to its original pre-2003 number from the 9th) on Houston's South Side, State Rep. Shawn Thierry and Houston City Council member Edward Pollard (who resigned to run for Congress per laws in the city of Houston) emerged out of a crowded Democratic field to a runoff in May, while in the north Houston-based 18th District, former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards managed to avoid a runoff with the endorsement of retiring Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee despite fierce challenges from a Justice Democrats-backed candidate and three Hispanic candidates in what has become a majority Latino district. Democrats will be guaranteed to hold both districts in November, as well as the majority Latino 29th District of Sylvia Garcia.

In the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Democrats are guaranteed to elect the Metroplex's first Latina member of Congress from the newly redrawn 24th District in downtown Dallas as well as Grand Prairie and south Irving, with either Dallas County Commissioner Elba Garcia or former Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member and 2020 candidate Candace Valenzuela, who narrowly lost in 2020 to Republican Beth Van Duyne (who is now the GOP nominee for the 12th District of retiring fellow Republican Kay Granger that now extends from Fort Worth to the Las Colinas area of Irving), heavily favored in November. In northeast Dallas and its eastern suburbs and rural areas from Terrell to Palestine, where Gooden is vacating his 5th District, former U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe (who briefly served as Director of National Intelligence for the last months of Trump's presidency) will go to a runoff against State Rep. Cody Harris, while the 32nd District (restored to its pre-2022 iteration in north Dallas) will also see a runoff between State Rep. Morgan Meyer and wealthy businessman Phillip Huffines for the right to take on NRCC target Colin Allred.

The I-35 corridor in Central and South Texas will also see their fair share of runoffs in May. In Roy's open 21st District connecting suburbs of San Antonio and Austin to the Hill Country, conservative State Rep. Kyle Biedermann and businessman and former NFL long snapper Cullen Loeffler (whose father Tom Loeffler once represented this district from 1979 to 1987) will face each other in a runoff, while the heavily Democratic 37th District in Austin will pit Travis County Commissioner Jeff Travillion against longtime Austin City Council member Kathie Tovo for the right to fill retiring incumbent Lloyd Doggett's seat. Meanwhile, San Antonio City Council member Manny Peláez cleared the Democratic field for the right to take on Republican Tony Gonzales in the 23rd District stretching from northwest San Antonio to communities and colonias along the Rio Grande, while trial lawyer and former State Representative Dan Gattis, a one-time "recovering politician" whose namesake father was once Williamson County Judge, ends up getting forced into a runoff against incumbent State Representative Brad Buckley from Killeen in the 31st District of retiring Republican John Carter.

Lastly, the "fajita strips" emanating from the Rio Grande Valley out to San Antonio and Corpus Christi will be primed to see some of the more competitive congressional battles in November. The most expensive battle was in the 27th District, where incumbent Republican Michael Cloud's current incarnation was singled out in a federal court ruling that struck down Texas's congressional map (as well as its legislative one) as racially gerrymandered with the intention of reducing Latino voting strength. As a result, Cloud's old district in the middle of the Texas Gulf Coast was redrawn into a new "fajita strip" stretching from his home in Victoria through west Corpus Christi to McAllen down in the Valley, pitting him in a Republican primary battle against former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, who briefly served in the nearby 34th District after its Democratic incumbent vacated it in early 2022 only to lose to incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in the general election. Flores narrowly defeated Cloud in the new 27th, and will now face Democratic Hidalgo County Commissioner Ellie Torres in the general election. Gonzalez himself, though, will face a difficult reelection in his new 34th connecting Brownsville to east Corpus Christi and such surrounding suburbs as Kingsville and Rockport in November against Cameron County GOP Chairwoman Morgan Cisneros Graham. Two freshman members, Republican Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District (Weslaco to Seguin) and Democrat Jessica Cisneros in the 28th District (Laredo to south San Antonio), will also have competitive general election battles against State Representative Armando Martinez and either Webb County GOP Chairman Luis De La Garza or gun rights activist Stephen Willeford (known for his heroics in the 2017 mass shooting of a church in the northern portion of the district), respectively. The remaining congressional and legislative runoffs will be contested on Tuesday, May 28th.

Editor's note: Yes, this is quite a lengthy post, but I shall note that I do have a lot of insider baseball with regards to my home state, hence the names of folks who are otherwise virtually unfamiliar to Atlasia.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #157 on: May 17, 2022, 07:14:36 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2022, 01:53:47 PM by SaintStan86 »

It is now early Wednesday morning, and the voters of California have spoken...

CALIFORNIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

The largest prize on the entire Democratic primary ledger, California Democrats will be handing out 424 pledged delegates - about one-eighth of the entire pledged delegate count. 277 of these delegates will be allocated from the state's 52 congressional districts, while the other 147 will be awarded at-large.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 54.51 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 16.22 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 12.13 percent
Jared Polis - 10.85 percent
Roy Cooper - 3.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.81 percent
(Remaining 0.34 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Chico, Redding & Yuba City (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/Eureka, San Rafael & Ukiah (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Jared Polis 1
CD3/Roseville, Truckee & Bishop (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Santa Rosa, Davis & Napa (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/El Dorado Hills, Fresno (far north) & Modesto (north) (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD6/Sacramento (north), Arden-Arcade & Rancho Cordova (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Sacramento (south), Elk Grove & West Sacramento (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD8/Fairfield, Richmond & Antioch (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Stockton, Lodi & Tracy (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD10/Concord, San Ramon & Brentwood (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD11/San Francisco (except Excelsior & Visitacion Valley) (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Jared Polis 1
CD12/Oakland, Berkeley & San Leandro (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD13/Modesto (south), Merced & Madera (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD14/Hayward, Fremont & Livermore (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD15/San Francisco (Excelsior), San Mateo & Burlingame (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD16/Palo Alto, Pacifica & Los Gatos (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Jared Polis 1
CD17/San Jose (North), Cupertino & Newark (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD18/San Jose (Central), Salinas & Hollister (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD19/San Jose (South), Monterey & Paso Robles (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD20/Bakersfield, Clovis & Tulare (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD21/Fresno, Visalia & Parlier (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD22/Bakersfield, Hanford & Porterville (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD23/Victorville, California City & Twentynine Palms (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD24/Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Ventura (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD25/Coachella, El Centro & Needles (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD26/Thousand Oaks, Oxnard & Simi Valley (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD27/Santa Clarita, Palmdale & Porter Ranch (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD28/Pasadena, Monterey Park & Rancho Cucamonga (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD29/Van Nuys, North Hollywood & Sylmar (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Jared Polis 1
CD30/Hollywood, Burbank & Sunland-Tujunga (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD31/West Covina, San Dimas & Azusa (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD32/Sherman Oaks, Northridge, & Malibu (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD33/San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga & Redlands (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD34/Los Angeles (DTLA, Koreatown, Highland Park) & East Los Angeles (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD35/Ontario, Eastvale & Pomona (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD36/Santa Monica, Rancho Palos Verdes & Beverly Hills (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Jared Polis 1
CD37/Los Angeles (DTLA, Baldwin Hills, South) & Culver City (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
CD38/Whittier, Diamond Bar & La Habra (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD39/Riverside, Moreno Valley & Perris (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD40/Yorba Linda, Chino Hills & Mission Viejo (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD41/Palm Springs, Corona & Calimesa (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD42/Long Beach, Downey & Huntington Park (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD43/Compton, Inglewood & Torrance (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
CD44/San Pedro, Lynwood & Carson (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD45/Garden Grove, Brea & Cypress (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD46/Santa Ana, Anaheim & Fullerton (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD47/Irvine, Huntington Beach & Laguna Beach (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD48/Carlsbad, Laguna Niguel & San Clemente (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD49/Poway, Temecula & Lakeside (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD50/San Diego (Downtown, Rancho Bernardo), Escondido & La Jolla (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD51/San Diego (Mission Valley, Scripps Ranch) & El Cajon (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD52/San Diego (San Ysidro, Encanto), Chula Vista & National City (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (55 delegates):
Kamala Harris 42, Elizabeth Warren 13
At-Large Delegates (92 delegates):
Kamala Harris 71, Elizabeth Warren 21

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 894 delegates +329 from California
Elizabeth Warren - 427 delegates +83 from California
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 106 delegates +7 from California
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Jared Polis - 20 delegates +5 from California
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

The old adage of "no place like home" certainly rang true for the Vice President in her home state as Harris romped to a colossal victory, winning all 52 congressional districts as well as more than three-quarters of at-large and PLEO pledged delegates with a whopping 55.2 percent of the vote and 329 pledged delegates (113 of them won statewide). In 11 districts, Harris swept all CD delegates including several in the Inland Empire, southern parts of Los Angeles and LA County and three districts in the Bay Area including one south of San Francisco and two others in Oakland and north of San Jose. Coming in second with 16.22 percent and 83 pledged delegates including 34 at-large and PLEO delegates, Warren's strongest performances were in progressive enclaves and college towns across California (though notably not including UC Berkeley near Oakland and USC south of downtown Los Angeles) as well as in coastal Orange and San Diego counties (where she benefited from a strong endorsement by U.S. Rep. and current U.S. Senate candidate Katie Porter). Despite strong appeals to progressive voters, as well as endorsements from several prominent podcasters including The Young Turks, Harris still prevailed strongly and also won several endorsements from Hollywood celebrities, influencers and executives along the way, though Warren did win endorsements from many of the same figures - such as actress and one-time Warren critic Susan Sarandon - who endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020.

Not every delegate in the Golden State went to both frontrunners. Buttigieg, who finished in third with more than 12 percent of the vote, won seven pledged delegates entirely from congressional districts, mostly in the inland Sacramento and Central Valleys (home to sizable agrarian Hispanic and blue-collar populations) as well as the Inland Empire, while Polis finished in fourth with nearly 11 percent of the vote and five CD delegates from districts with sizable LGBTQ+ and tech-heavy populations, including San Francisco and West Hollywood as well as Silicon Valley. Neither Cooper nor Klobuchar were even remotely competitive statewide, with Cooper earning just over three percent of the vote and Klobuchar just under the same amount.

Overall, Harris now holds a staggering lead in pledged delegates with 892 to Warren's 426. Cooper, who dropped out on Super Tuesday, remains in third with 132 pledged delegates but is expected to be surpassed by Buttigieg who holds 104 and is likely to gain more in coming Midwestern contests over the next two weeks.

CALIFORNIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Unlike the Democratic primary, California's own Republican primary will allocate its 169 delegates - the most of any state despite being entirely controlled by Democrats since 2010 - using a different formula. For this primary, the winner of each congressional district will be awarded each of the state's three congressional delegates, while the at-large delegates will be awarded either in their entirety to an absolute majority winner or distributed proportionally to candidates winning at least 20 percent of the statewide vote.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 26.66 percent
Nikki Haley - 22.61 percent
Mike Pence - 20.13 percent
Ted Cruz - 7.13 percent
Mike Pompeo - 7.11 percent
Ben Sasse - 6.99 percent
Chris Christie - 3.60 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.15 percent
Candace Owens - 1.66 percent
[Remaining 1.96 percent went to other candidates, including 1.27 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Chico, Redding & Yuba City (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD2/Eureka, San Rafael & Ukiah (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD3/Roseville, Truckee & Bishop (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD4/Santa Rosa, Davis & Napa (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD5/El Dorado Hills, Fresno (far north) & Modesto (north) (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD6/Sacramento (north), Arden-Arcade & Rancho Cordova (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD7/Sacramento (south), Elk Grove & West Sacramento (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD8/Fairfield, Richmond & Antioch (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD9/Stockton, Lodi & Tracy (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD10/Concord, San Ramon & Brentwood (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD11/San Francisco (except Excelsior & Visitacion Valley) (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD12/Oakland, Berkeley & San Leandro (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD13/Modesto (south), Merced & Madera (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD14/Hayward, Fremont & Livermore (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD15/San Francisco (Excelsior), San Mateo & Burlingame (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD16/Palo Alto, Pacifica & Los Gatos (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD17/San Jose (North), Cupertino & Newark (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD18/San Jose (Central), Salinas & Hollister (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD19/San Jose (South), Monterey & Paso Robles (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD20/Bakersfield, Clovis & Tulare (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD21/Fresno, Visalia & Parlier (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD22/Bakersfield, Hanford & Porterville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD23/Victorville, California City & Twentynine Palms (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD24/Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Ventura (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD25/Coachella, El Centro & Needles (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD26/Thousand Oaks, Oxnard & Simi Valley (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD27/Santa Clarita, Palmdale & Porter Ranch (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD28/Pasadena, Monterey Park & Rancho Cucamonga (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD29/Van Nuys, North Hollywood & Sylmar (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD30/Hollywood, Burbank & Sunland-Tujunga (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD31/West Covina, San Dimas & Azusa (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD32/Sherman Oaks, Northridge, & Malibu (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD33/San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga & Redlands (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD34/Los Angeles (DTLA, Koreatown, Highland Park) & East Los Angeles (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD35/Ontario, Eastvale & Pomona (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD36/Santa Monica, Rancho Palos Verdes & Beverly Hills (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD37/Los Angeles (DTLA, Baldwin Hills, South) & Culver City (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD38/Whittier, Diamond Bar & La Habra (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD39/Riverside, Moreno Valley & Perris (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD40/Yorba Linda, Chino Hills & Mission Viejo (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD41/Palm Springs, Corona & Calimesa (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD42/Long Beach, Downey & Huntington Park (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD43/Compton, Inglewood & Torrance (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD44/San Pedro, Lynwood & Carson (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD45/Garden Grove, Brea & Cypress (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
CD46/Santa Ana, Anaheim & Fullerton (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD47/Irvine, Huntington Beach & Laguna Beach (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD48/Carlsbad, Laguna Niguel & San Clemente (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD49/Poway, Temecula & Lakeside (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD50/San Diego (Downtown, Rancho Bernardo), Escondido & La Jolla (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD51/San Diego (Mission Valley, Scripps Ranch) & El Cajon (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD52/San Diego (San Ysidro, Encanto), Chula Vista & National City (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3
Statewide, at-large (13 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 5, Nikki Haley 4, Mike Pence 4

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 428 delegates +98 from California
Nikki Haley - 283 delegates +52 from California
Mike Pence - 140 delegates +19 from California
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 16 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

California's GOP primary ended up being a close horserace between the top three candidates in the presidential race, with DeSantis coming out ahead on the basis of his strong support in Southern California - with most of his 31 congressional wins coming in and around Los Angeles and San Diego, along with a sizable win amongst Hispanic voters in the Southland. Haley, meanwhile, turned in her strongest performances around the San Francisco Bay Area and in the Sacramento area where she won most of her 16 congressional wins; though Haley also scored congressional wins in areas of Southern California with sizable Asian populations or a more moderate GOP electorate such as Beverly Hills. Five congressional districts were won by Pence, primarily in the inland valleys of the state including such smaller metro areas as Fresno, Chico and Palm Springs; one notable such district, the one actually represented by Speaker of the House (and current U.S. Senate candidate) Kevin McCarthy, was actually won narrowly by DeSantis.

The rest of the GOP field notably underperformed well below the top three candidates who dominated on Tuesday across the Golden State. One tier of candidates - Cruz, Pompeo and Sasse - each won around 7 percent of the vote, while Christie, Hogan and Owens each brought up the back end of the results. Sen. Marco Rubio even managed to win well over one percent of the vote, primarily from mail-in ballots postmarked before Rubio dropped out right after former President Donald Trump endorsed DeSantis. DeSantis now holds a lead of 428 delegates with 800 more needed to clinch the nomination, followed by Haley with 283 and Pence with 140. While Pence's road to the nomination is arguably on far shakier ground, encouraging polling numbers from Michigan and Missouri - whose contests are taking place next week - are likely to further boost his pessimistic chances of capturing the GOP nomination after being snubbed by Trump last February.
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« Reply #158 on: May 17, 2022, 10:33:43 AM »

Awesome, I couldn't put that much effort myself
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« Reply #159 on: May 18, 2022, 09:26:12 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2022, 01:54:07 PM by SaintStan86 »

Candidates have already started campaigning for the next two weeks of events. Meanwhile, in the last remaining holdout...

COLORADO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Colorado's open primary - largely a mail-in affair, which explains the delayed results - will see Democrats award 72 delegates, including 47 at the congressional level, pledged to candidates based on the congressional and statewide results.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 40.21 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 25.98 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 17.52 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 9.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 3.46 percent
Roy Cooper - 3.24 percent
(Remaining 0.45 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Denver (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Boulder, Fort Collins & Steamboat Springs (6 delegates):
Jared Polis 3, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Grand Junction, Pueblo & Durango (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Jared Polis 2
CD4/Castle Rock, Fort Morgan & Loveland (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Jared Polis 3
CD5/Colorado Springs (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Jared Polis 2
CD6/Aurora, Centennial & Littleton (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Jared Polis 2
CD7/Lakewood, Broomfield & Cañon City (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Jared Polis 3
CD8/Westminster, Greeley & Brighton (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Jared Polis 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Jared Polis 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Jared Polis 5, Elizabeth Warren 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 931 delegates +37 from Colorado
Elizabeth Warren - 435 delegates +8 from Colorado
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 106 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates +27 from Colorado
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Despite his favorite son status in Colorado, Polis still ran into the wall of electoral reality as Harris took home over 40 percent of the vote, winning 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts (the lone exception being the Boulder-based 2nd once held by Polis for five terms before he became Governor) and 37 pledged delegates. Harris's margins were most pronounced in most suburban areas surrounding Denver as well as in western Colorado, with Polis being most competitive in areas surrounding the Boulder-Fort Collins corridor. While Warren did modestly well with White liberals in Denver and Boulder as well as surrounding areas including most of the Ski Country towns (e.g. Aspen, Vail, etc.), she grossly underperformed in the more affluent suburbs west and south of Denver in Jefferson and Arapahoe counties as well as in Colorado Springs and rural Colorado. The only other Democrat who was even close to even winning a congressional delegate without doing so was Buttigieg, whose best performance was around 13 percent of the vote in the 3rd and 4th districts, while underperforming well under 7 percent in the Denver suburbs.

COLORADO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Colorado Republicans will allocate 39 delegates to candidates who receive at least 20 percent or more of the statewide vote on a proportional basis. Any candidate who receives an absolute majority will be awarded all of the state's delegates.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 26.66 percent (15 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 21.42 percent (12 delegates)
Mike Pence - 20.11 percent (12 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 8.63 percent
Mike Pompeo - 7.32 percent
Ted Cruz - 6.14 percent
Chris Christie - 4.04 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.88 percent
Candace Owens - 2.14 percent
[Remaining 1.31 percent went to other candidates, including 0.81 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 443 delegates +15 from Colorado
Nikki Haley - 295 delegates +12 from Colorado
Mike Pence - 152 delegates +12 from Colorado
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 16 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis scores a narrow win in Colorado, fueled by his strong support in the Interstate 25 corridor from Colorado Springs to Denver where he wins over 35 percent of the vote in El Paso, Douglas and southern Arapahoe counties (winning the former, home to a large military presence and the headquarters of the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic teams, with over 40 percent), as well as in the suburbs west of Denver including Lakewood, Arvada and Golden and in the city of Aurora. Haley's strongest performance, meanwhile, is concentrated in more moderate parts of the Front Range including Denver and the I-25 corridor north of Denver (including areas east of and within Boulder and Fort Collins) as well as in prominent ski resort towns such as Aspen and Vail. Pence's stronghold is in more rural parts of the state, particularly in western and southern Colorado where he generally wins northward of 25-30 percent. The eastern part of the state, also won by Pence, is also competitive for DeSantis as well as Sasse (who wins over 10-15 percent of the vote in areas adjoining neighboring Nebraska as well as in the aforementioned Boulder-Fort Collins corridor that is home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University, respectively. Pompeo wins over 10 percent in areas with large military communities around Aurora and Colorado Springs, but otherwise flamed out elsewhere in the state.
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« Reply #160 on: May 19, 2022, 03:58:26 AM »

UPDATE: North Carolina just showed us that political celebrity does not translate into eventual success. That was especially true at the congressional level as Madison Cawthorn's antics caught up to him in the primary; despite a last-minute endorsement from Trump, he went down in defeat in the 11th District to State Sen. Chuck Edwards who is running for reelection in this TL along with Cawthorn (who is motivated to run again by his base of supporters). It was also true for Clay Aiken as his razor-thin second place defeat to Ruben Studdard on American Idol in 2003 was still not enough to save him in the 4th District, which ended up being a two-woman race between victorious State Sen. Valerie Foushee and progressive Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam whose Squad bonafides still couldn't get her over the top.

In fact, it pretty much paid to be a State Senator if you were running here - State Sen. Don Davis will be the nominee in NC-01 against Republican Sandy Smith in a battleground vacated by G.K. Butterfield, with Davis having prevailed in this TL and facing a very competitive reelection yet again in this newfound battleground. Two other Democratic State Sens. - Jeff Jackson in the new, south Charlotte-based 14th and Wiley Nickel in the south suburban Raleigh-based 13th - also won their primaries, but while Jackson will have won in this TL and become a first-term incumbent, Nickel will have come up short before this TL began against law school student and former college football player Bo Hines who becomes the new millennial conservative star from this state. In this TL, as aforementioned, Republicans will have tweaked the districts to make the districts friendlier to them, meaning that Jackson will move to the new 12th where Alma Adams is retiring and Dan Bishop runs for reelection in the now more conservative-leaning 14th; Bishop's soon-to-be current 8th swaps numbers with the 9th of Richard Hudson, who moves back closer to Charlotte as his 9th reverts back to the 8th that ends up becoming home to a comeback bid for former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker after the latter's failed bid against now freshman Sen. Ted Budd (who will face Cheri Beasley in IRL and will have won and taken his seat in this TL).

Of course, don't get me started about Pennsylvania. The race for Governor will pit State Sen. Doug Mastriano against state Attorney General Josh Shapiro. The race already leans towards Shapiro as Democrats are betting on suburban voters turning against Mastriano's outspokenness over Trump's loss to Biden in this state in 2020, but Mastriano actually romped across the state (save for northeast PA which was clearly Lou Barletta country) and even won Bucks and Montgomery in the Philly suburbs (and perhaps Chester County as well had Bill McSwain decided to run for Congress instead of for Governor), and I'm actually going to go on a limb and say Mastriano pulls off a narrow win over Shapiro as fractious Republicans unite enough to put him over the top. It also shall be noted that his running mate for Lieutenant Governor is arguably more establishmentarian than Mastriano is, which may convince some Republicans otherwise pessimistic about Mastriano to vote for him.

The Senate race is a different story, as it remains to be seen if Dr. Mehmet Oz holds on to his razor-thin lead over Dave McCormick or loses it all. Either way, Republicans are not going to be necessarily as satisfied as they are even with Mastriano and in this TL I will say Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, having recovered from his recent stroke, will prevail in this TL. Also in this TL, McCormick has decided to run for the Senate again - this time against failed gubernatorial hopeful and ex-U.S. Rep. Barletta and incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, while Dr. Oz has gone back home to New Jersey to run against frequent cookie jar nemesis Bob Menendez (barring a potential defeat from U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill). I also predict that McSwain's loss will be the gain for Guy Ciarrocchi over Chrissy Houlahan in the Chesco-based 6th District, that Lisa Scheller and Jim Bognet (who won their primaries as well in the respective 7th and 8th) will defeat their incumbent Dem challengers, that Summer Lee's thin margin over Steve Irwin will hold and she will be the incumbent in the Pittsburgh-based 12th, and that Jeremy Shaffer will defeat Chris DeLuzio in the suburban Pittsburgh-based 17th.

I also nailed it with Christine Drazan winning the GOP nod for Governor of Oregon and I will also go on and predict that she will make history and become Oregon's first Republican Governor since the Reagan administration over Tina Kotek. My congressional predictions will also remain the same save for a different candidate in the new 6th District: Alek Skarlatos will have defeated state Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle in the Eugene-based 4th, Lori Chavez-DeRemer will have defeated liberal attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner (who defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary) in the southeast suburban Portland-to-Bend based 5th, and frequent GOP candidate Mike Erickson (after two failed tries, the last of which ended in controversy in 2008) will make the third time a charm defeating State Rep. Andrea Salinas in the new southwest suburban Portland-based 6th. Not all is lost for Democrats as longtime fixture and current U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden easily wins another term over repeat Republican challenger Jo Rae Perkins.

Lastly, in Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, fresh off delivering a very big can of whoopass on his opponents, will easily win a third term over former State. Rep. Charlie Booker and State Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey will be in Congress in this TL, having defeated his more Squad-like challenger Attica Scott in the Democratic primary for the Louisville-based 3rd. Big whoop. And in Idaho, Gov. Brad Little beat back a far-right, Trump-backed challenger in Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin and goes on to defeat Democrat Stephen Heidt and independent militia man Ammon Bundy (yes, from THAT Bundy family) before this TL begins, along with Sen. Mike Crapo beating Democrat David Roth and some Libertarian candidate named Idaho Sierra Law, as Mike Simpson beats Bryan Smith yet again and ultimately retires in this TL from the eastern Idaho-to-Boise based 2nd District (with Smith now running yet again, this time without Simpson in the picture). Even bigger whoop.


First major campaign activity since Super Tuesday coming right up...
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« Reply #161 on: May 19, 2022, 11:53:42 AM »

@SaintStan86,
Could you post a Map of the Primaries for the D & R Nomination so we can see what's still out?
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« Reply #162 on: May 21, 2022, 04:15:42 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2022, 06:42:43 AM by SaintStan86 »

March 7, 2024
OFF TO THE MIDWEST: CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR NEXT PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS
With Super Tuesday now a memory, presidential candidates took back to the campaign trail after a brief break on Wednesday for many of the candidates still remaining in the race. On Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis was back in Florida attending to concerns with the Florida Legislature on relief efforts for communities affected by hurricane damage and flooding from the previous Atlantic hurricane season, as well as new incentives to bring high-paying manufacturing and office jobs to the state in the post-COVID era. But it also wasn't the time to slouch around as DeSantis also attended fundraisers in Naples and Sarasota, touting his strong presidential victories on Tuesday and proclaiming "the road to the presidency goes right through I-75, from Hialeah to the Highlands", alluding not only to the surrounding Tampa Bay Area but also Georgia and in particular metro Atlanta, whose presidential votes will be at stake the following Tuesday after next, March 19th. On Thursday, following a brief trip to Orlando for a Chamber of Commerce luncheon, DeSantis was on his way to Michigan for a rally in Southfield followed by a tour of the Chrysler headquarters in Auburn Hills, both in suburban Oakland County outside of Detroit.

Meanwhile, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, after taking some time off in South Carolina, was on her way to Idaho where she is expected to pick up the endorsement of Idaho Gov. Brad Little at an event in Boise. Haley touted efforts for a federal heartbeat bill, "a measure backed by science, but not by the bureaucrats running Washington into the ground" per Haley's words on social media Wednesday afternoon, while also stressing the importance of "individual rights in education and parenting" in an attempt to win over libertarian-leaning conservatives considered highly influential in the rock-ribbed state. Former Vice President Mike Pence was already headed to Michigan after a brief respite at his home in Indiana, and expected to hold a rally Thursday in Zeeland, near Grand Rapids, at the headquarters of furniture manufacturer Herman Miller to receive the endorsement of former U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands and former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (who himself worked at Herman Miller before his 1992 election to Congress). The Friday itinerary for each of the three frontrunners for the GOP nomination was unclear, though DeSantis was expected to be in the New Orleans area on Saturday to host a rally that coincides with Louisiana's presidential primaries.

On Thursday night in New Orleans, Vice President Kamala Harris held a large rally at Lakefront Arena on the campus of the University of New Orleans, joined by President Biden, former Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu and her brother, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, current New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell, U.S. Rep. Troy Carter, and senior Biden administration advisor Cedric Richmond (who previously served in the congressional district Carter now serves in). Speaking before the packed audience with less than 48 hours before votes are counted in Louisiana's presidential primaries, Harris urged the audience to "not get complacent and show up loud and proud, for democracy works best when all the people show up to vote". The packed crowd at the arena was also treated following Harris's speech to a surprise concert by Grammy-award winning musician and New Orleans denizen Jon Batiste, who is also the bandleader on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. On Twitter, former Sec. Pete Buttigieg's "Chief Spokesperson" David Letterman responded with a viral tweet of an official portrait from his days as the original host of the Late Show on CBS from 1993-2015 with the caption "Miss Me Yet?", which was met with an unusual amount of retweets from conservatives who otherwise scorned the former late night host during and after his tenure on CBS (and before that, his NBC tenure hosting Late Night with David Letterman).

As for Buttigieg himself, he spent the day in Michigan talking with workers at General Motors' electric vehicle assembly plant in Hamtramck (surrounded within Detroit) while also picking up an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, whose late husband John was a fixture in Congress for decades if not generations. Dingell, who is retiring this year, called Buttigieg "a great advocate for America's greatest export to the world...the automobile" and also bragged that "Only Mayor Pete can win back the workers and middle-class families that deserted us for the desolate purgatory that Donald Trump put us in before President Biden rescued us". Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, was almost clear across the country in Seattle on Thursday, where she received the endorsement of progressive U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal at the University of Washington and spoke with other progressive leaders in the Puget Sound region, where she made the argument that "new advances in technology that cut costs in the middle are proof that a national health insurance system is feasible", drawing some mixed reviews from an audience at a conference with tech industry insiders in suburban Bellevue.

While Saturday's affair is largely limited to Louisiana and two territories, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, Tuesday's contest is expected to be a pivotal one for the candidates in the Midwest, but most especially Pence and Buttigieg whose chances of winning their party's respective presidential nomination - already shaky after Super Tuesday - could be even shakier if not impossible should they not at least make a dent in their parties' nominating contests. Tuesday's contests will involve Michigan, Washington, Missouri, Hawaii, Idaho and North Dakota, as well as (for the Democrats) the final tallies for the virtual Democrats Abroad caucus involving expatriate Democrats in dozens of countries around the world.

March 8, 2024
POMPEO ENDORSES HALEY: "THE DIFFERENCE IS LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD"
In a surprise announcement, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo endorsed former Ambassador Nikki Haley for President on Friday, making his endorsement clear on Facebook. "I am honored to consider Nikki Haley a friend and true patriot who believes in America and strength in numbers when it comes to our role in the world". Pompeo was one of former President Donald Trump's most prominent voices on foreign policy matters, having shepherded Trump through the Abraham Accords and other key foreign policy initiatives of the Trump administration, and has since remained active as a contributor on Fox News Channel prior to the launch of his presidential campaign which ended on Tuesday night, having won only 20 delegates in six states, with his highest number being a paltry 6 votes in Oklahoma.

Pompeo's announcement is met with surprise from some conservative corners, as Haley largely has been seen as a more "establishment-type candidate" in the Republican presidential primaries. In response, Pompeo argued that his endorsement was not intended to harm the campaign of the leading GOP frontrunner, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. "Look, DeSantis is a proud patriot and I thank him for his service and his leadership as Governor of Florida, but he's in the right place at the right time. Nikki Haley is ready to serve from Day One, and that in my view is the difference." DeSantis's campaign responded to Pompeo's endorsement by alluding to the former Secretary of State's close ties to defense and aviation interests. "If Nikki Haley is going to let Mike Pompeo and his millions in defense contractor subsidies dictate America's direction in the world, how can she be trusted to put the interests and freedoms of Americans first?", said DeSantis campaign spokesperson Christina Pushaw. DeSantis himself also reiterated "As your President, I will not send excessive amounts of foreign aid - even to our allies in need - when our country has its own problems to deal with", and argued that a Haley presidency would be "business as usual" for foreign policy hawks and vendors believed to be "chummy with President Biden".

Proving correct the words of the late yacht rocker Paul Davis from neighboring Mississippi, it is a "Cool Night" in Louisiana. The polls have closed, and Gov. Ron DeSantis is at the home arena of the NBA's New Orleans Pelicans, next to the Superdome. Will it be a victory party for DeSantis in the Pelican State? Stay tuned...

LOUISIANA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Louisiana will award 47 delegates to qualifying candidates in tonight's partisan presidential primary - a complete departure from the state's traditional "jungle primary" held on the federal Election Night. Initially scheduled for April, this primary was moved up to right after Super Tuesday, on the first Saturday afterwards per Louisiana's traditional preference for Saturday elections at the state level. 18 of these delegates will be awarded at the congressional level, with the other 29 to be awarded statewide, in both cases proportionally with the latter being allocated to candidates with at least 20 percent of the vote and any remaining delegates left unbound.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 42.94 percent
Mike Pence - 23.31 percent
Nikki Haley - 20.86 percent
Ben Sasse - 7.64 percent
Candace Owens - 2.14 percent
[Remaining 3.11 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Metairie, Mandeville & Houma (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD2/New Orleans, Baton Rouge & Gonzales (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Mike Pence 1
CD3/Lafayette, Lake Charles & Morgan City (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD4/Shreveport, Natchitoches & Opelousas (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD5/Monroe, Alexandria & Hammond (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1, Nikki Haley 1
CD6/Baton Rouge, Denham Springs & Thibodaux (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (29 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 12, Nikki Haley 7, Mike Pence 6 (4 delegates remain unbound)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 463 delegates +20 from Louisiana
Nikki Haley - 307 delegates +12 from Louisiana
Mike Pence - 163 delegates +11 from Louisiana
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates, including four from Louisiana, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis continues his domination of the South with another win on Saturday in Louisiana, winning a total of 20 delegates and all six of the state's congressional districts, including an absolute majority in the 1st District, home to suburbs of New Orleans and represented by House Majority Leader and prospective Speaker Steve Scalise, and a near-absolute majority in the 3rd District based in Acadiana. His closest margins come in the Shreveport-based 4th and Monroe-based 5th districts, where Pence performed most strongly statewide. Pence was also competitive across much of rural Louisiana and won over 25 percent in most parishes outside of Greater New Orleans. Haley's strongest performance has been in more urban and suburban areas across the state, but like Pence with regards to rural Louisiana it is not enough to overtake the frontrunner.

LOUISIANA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

As with the GOP, Democrats in Louisiana also held a partisan presidential primary that deviates from the state's traditional "jungle primary". 48 pledged delegates will be assigned to candidates at the congressional and statewide levels.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 49.62 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 19.85 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 18.41 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 12.12 percent went to other candidates, including 8.89 for Roy Cooper)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Metairie, Mandeville & Houma (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/New Orleans, Baton Rouge & Gonzales (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8
CD3/Lafayette, Lake Charles & Morgan City (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Shreveport, Natchitoches & Opelousas (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Monroe, Alexandria & Hammond (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Baton Rouge, Denham Springs & Thibodaux (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
At-Large Delegates (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 964 delegates +33 from Louisiana
Elizabeth Warren - 443 delegates +8 from Louisiana
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 113 delegates +7 from Louisiana
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

To no great surprise, Harris sweeps across Louisiana which (like most Southern states) has a Democratic voter base dominated by Black voters. The Vice President's performance in Greater New Orleans is such that she even wins all eight delegates in the New Orleans-to-Baton Rouge-based 2nd, with Warren and Buttigieg each splitting under 20 percent statewide. Warren's strongest performance is in Baton Rouge as well as in white liberal enclaves around New Orleans and college towns such as Lafayette and Natchitoches, while Buttigieg has been competitive across rural and suburban areas statewide as the only remaining moderate alternative to both Harris and Warren.

GUAM
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Six pledged delegates will be awarded proportionally in tonight's territorial caucuses, with votes cast on secret ballots across the territory.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 68.79 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 17.84 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 12.10 percent
(Remaining 1.27 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 969 delegates +5 from Guam
Elizabeth Warren - 444 delegates +1 from Guam
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 113 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Vice President Harris dominated Guam's territorial caucuses, winning over two-thirds of the vote for perhaps her most dominant performance yet, though Warren is able to salvage one at-large delegate with just under 18 percent of the vote.

GUAM
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Guam will send nine delegates to the Republican National Convention, with the three party leaders going to the convention unbound. As was the case with American Samoa, the caucus delegates voted to send their delegates to the RNC unbound.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 463 delegates
Nikki Haley - 307 delegates
Mike Pence - 163 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates, including all nine from Guam, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Like Guam, Democrats in the Northern Mariana Islands will also be choosing their delegates at tonight's territorial caucus, using the same standardized delegate math used across the entire Democratic Party.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 71.10 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 14.21 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 14.06 percent
(Remaining 0.63 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 975 delegates +6 from the Northern Marianas
Elizabeth Warren - 443 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 113 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Vice President Harris turned in an even more dominant performance in the Northern Mariana Islands, winning all six delegates as Warren and Buttigieg won only just over 14 percent of the vote.

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Unlike Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands will send its nine GOP delegates to the Republican National Convention bound to the winner of tonight's territorial caucus.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 62.22 percent (9 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 19.51 percent
Mike Pence - 14.14 percent
Ben Sasse - 3.41 percent
Candace Owens - 0.19 percent
[Remaining 0.53 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 472 delegates +20 from the Northern Marianas
Nikki Haley - 307 delegates +12 from the Northern Marianas
Mike Pence - 163 delegates +11 from the Northern Marianas
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 36 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 2 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

With territorial caucus delegates all but assuming DeSantis as the frontrunner in the GOP primary, the Florida Governor wins north of 60 percent in the territorial caucus presidential preference poll.
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« Reply #163 on: May 21, 2022, 07:25:12 PM »

Unlikely to be Pete so let’s go Liz
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« Reply #164 on: May 22, 2022, 01:35:14 PM »

What is the economic situation like in 2024 in this TL? Gas prices and inflation statistics might be good to know here. Good job on this TL!
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« Reply #165 on: May 23, 2022, 05:03:01 AM »

March 10, 2024
CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR ROUND TWO AS FRONTRUNNERS CONQUER LOUISIANA
On Sunday, presidential candidates continued their usual barnstorming tours as Tuesday's impending votes in six states loom, with the pressure largely being felt on two candidates (including a former Vice President) who have staked their chances on their home turf in the Midwest which hold the lion's share of the important contests for the next several days. Meanwhile, for the frontrunners in both parties, former President Donald Trump's old adage of "we're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning" became more obvious after Saturday night's contests.

On Saturday night, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis won Louisiana's Republican presidential primary, winning over 40 percent of the vote and 20 of the state's 47 delegates. Speaking before a packed crowd at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, DeSantis called the election "the most critical juncture in our nation's history" and urged supporters to avoid complacence and to "keep the train running this week and next". DeSantis was also joined on stage by House Majority Leader (and DeSantis's fellow Italian-American) Steve Scalise, who endorsed DeSantis on stage that evening. "It is clear that there is one frontrunner in the race for President of the United States - both in this primary and in November - and his name is Ron DeSantis!", Scalise proclaimed on stage. Former President Donald Trump, who did not appear on stage in New Orleans on Saturday, appeared via satellite from his Mar-a-Lago estate, thanking the audience for their support of DeSantis and also remarked "The primary is over, and Ron DeSantis is in the driver's seat and he ain't going anywhere".

Former Ambassador Nikki Haley had hoped to make inroads with Louisiana voters by pointing to DeSantis's relative inexperience on foreign policy matters as well as highlighting her endorsement by former Gov. Bobby Jindal. However, Haley failed to make a dent and barely finished above 20 percent and third place, only crossing 25 percent in the suburban New Orleans-based 1st which was also DeSantis's strongest district as former Vice President Mike Pence barely crossed 15 percent. Pence managed to cross 25 and even 35 percent in most parishes outside of Greater New Orleans, but other than nearly tying DeSantis in North Louisiana and shutting Haley out of winning delegates in the Acadiana-centric 3rd District, Pence was virtually invisible in suburban areas across the state. Sen. Ben Sasse was at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette in front of an arguably smaller audience, where he held lectures on the importance of "starving the debt beast" and "restoring American leadership in the world", but otherwise was virtually nonexistent across the board along with Candace Owens.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris scored yet another commanding performance in the South, capturing nearly 50 percent of the vote and holding her chief rivals, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Sec. Pete Buttigieg, to under 20 percent (with the latter arguably benefiting from the exit of North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper earlier in the week; Cooper had been ahead of Buttigieg in early voting, with his numbers on Election Day being arguably lower than in Early Voting with well under two percent of votes in the latter). Harris won 33 of the state's 48 pledged delegates, with the rest being nearly evenly split between Warren with 8 delegates and Buttigieg with 7. At a rally in Kansas City, Harris remarked the importance of the election, "Right here in the American heartland is where this election will be decided, and our result tonight in Louisiana proves the momentum is on our side - the side of the people!". Harris's comment was met with mild consternation, pointing to the relatively moderate political landscape of Kansas City and its preference for more mainstream Democrats (as opposed to Harris's straight left-liberalism) in the mold of former President Harry Truman, who ran a haberdashery in Kansas City prior to his political career. "This is not Harry Truman's Democratic Party anymore - if Jack Kennedy wasn't going to recognize it, neither would Harry Truman", remarked Fox News contributor and former U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy on his Sunday night Fox News program "Sunday Night in America".

March 11, 2024
CANDIDATES SCOOP UP LAST-MINUTE ENDORSEMENTS, STOPS AS SECOND ROUND OF "SUPER TUESDAYS" LOOM
With hours to go before voters in six states head to the polls to cast their presidential preferences, candidates were making stops at a frenetic pace hoping to gain some last-minute votes. The pressure was especially crucial for former Vice President Mike Pence and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, as their home state of Indiana will be up for grabs next Tuesday along with several other large and important states mainly concentrated in the Midwest and Southeast. Pence is hoping to make enough of a dent in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's lead to stay active in the race and possibly force a contested convention for the GOP, while Buttigieg is viewed as the last remaining moderate hope amongst the Democrats, even though Buttigieg's political philosophy isn't much distinguishable from that of frontrunner Vice President Kamala Harris save for some more centrist positions on economic issues.

At a campaign stop at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan (located in suburban Detroit's Oakland County), Pence gained the endorsement of longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard as well as two prominent statewide Michigan Republicans - former state Attorney General and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette and former Energy Secretary and U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham. Pence called the endorsements a "turning point" and proof that "the Republican Party is bigger than Ron DeSantis", while also touting the importance of conservative policies in "turning around Michigan after the mess that Gretchen Whitmer left behind for Republicans to clean up". Pence continued piling on defeated former Michigan Gov. Whitmer, who is now running for the U.S. Senate. "If voters weren't going to trust Gretchen Whitmer as Governor, why would they want her in the Senate?" Pence had arrived in Oakland County on Sunday, and had been spotted playing a round of golf at Oakland Hills Country Club (whose clubhouse had recently been rebuilt after a devastating fire in 2022) as part of a charitable golf tournament hosted by the Oakland County Republican Party.

Among other notable Michiganders, former Ambassador Nikki Haley has received the endorsement of former Governor and National Association of Manufacturers President John Engler, while DeSantis has been endorsed by former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos (whose family has long been prominent in Michigan politics and also owns the NBA's Orlando Magic in DeSantis's home state of Florida). Notably absent amongst Michigan Republicans is moderate former Gov. Rick Snyder (who endorsed Joe Biden in 2020 and has since faded out of the spotlight after his indictment for his role in the Flint water crisis during his gubernatorial tenure) and Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel (who is remaining neutral until a presumptive Republican nominee has been declared). Most elected Democrats in Michigan have largely coalesced behind Harris, though some more moderate Democrats have thrown their support behind Buttigieg while more progressive ones (such as U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib) have endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was touring the world headquarters of Ford Motor Company in Dearborn on Monday and stressed the importance of "pay equity" in manufacturing.

Another key state of interest in Tuesday's election will be Missouri. After spending the night in Kansas City, Harris traversed across the state to Columbia (home to the University of Missouri) where she stressed the importance of "finishing the job on student loan forgiveness" before appearing at a rally in St. Louis with former Gov. Jay Nixon and former U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill. "There is so much work to do in delivering for the people, and we are only getting started", Harris proclaimed to the audience at Chaifetz Arena on the campus of Saint Louis University. Republicans also paid special attention to Missouri as well, with DeSantis touring the historic Anheuser-Busch brewery in St. Louis and being roasted at a luncheon at Bellerive Country Club with several prominent St. Louis businessmen and retired professional athletes on Monday. Later on Monday evening, DeSantis picked up the endorsement of Sen. Josh Hawley, who had previously endorsed Sen. Tom Cotton before the latter dropped out following the Iowa caucuses. In making his announcement, Hawley remarked of DeSantis, "There is no greater champion for defending American exceptionalism, promoting conservative leadership and standing up to the woke mobs today than Governor Ron DeSantis. Which is why I am proud to endorse him to become our next President".

The state of Washington will also loom large in Tuesday's primaries, with a likely conservative-moderate split expected on both sides of the Cascades between the former elements in the east around Spokane and Yakima and the latter elements figuring more prominently in the Puget Sound region (including suburbs of Seattle and Tacoma as well as exurban areas on the Sound's western shores) as well as on the Washington side of the Portland metro area including Vancouver (not to be confused with the major Canadian city two hours north in British Columbia). Notwithstanding such a split, Spokane-based U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who is running for the U.S. Senate, has endorsed Haley for President, citing Haley's "bold America First foreign policy" and "her undying love for America and its exceptionalist soul", though the former immediately came under scrutiny given that Haley is largely viewed as the leading Republican choice amongst foreign policy hawks typically not associated with the relatively isolationist "America First" foreign policy of Donald Trump (which DeSantis has largely embraced).

In addition to appearing in the Pacific Northwest before the weekend, Haley had also appeared the previous Friday in North Dakota, where she toured oilfield plays in Williston and picked up the endorsement of Gov. Doug Burgum in Fargo later that evening, a move that further cemented hard-right criticism of Haley given Burgum's emotionally outspoken support for wearing masks during the worst brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic in the summer of 2020. One state that was never visited during the run up to Super Tuesday II was Hawaii, though the heavily Democratic state did see attention from Harris (who appeared at a fundraiser in Honolulu the previous December) and both DeSantis and Haley (who also attended fundraisers there as well with DeSantis also making a pit stop at the Pearl Harbor National Memorial, site of the infamous 1941 attack by Japan that drew the United States into World War II).

Coming up next: the results from Super Tuesday II...
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #166 on: May 25, 2022, 09:32:31 AM »

It is now 8PM in New York and 7PM in St. Louis. The polls have now closed in Missouri...

MISSOURI
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Democrats in the Show Me State will be awarding a total of 64 pledged delegates, including 42 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 43.32 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 33.23 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 19.31 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.14 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/St. Louis, Clayton & Florissant (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Chesterfield, Kirkwood & O'Fallon (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD3/Jefferson City, St. Charles & Arnold (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD4/Columbia, Harrisonville & Lebanon (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Kansas City (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD6/St. Joseph, Hannibal & Kirksville (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD7/Springfield, Joplin & Branson (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD8/Cape Girardeau, Farmington & West Plains (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (14 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Pete Buttigieg 5, Elizabeth Warren 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1005 delegates +30 from Missouri
Elizabeth Warren - 451 delegates +7 from Missouri
Pete Buttigieg - 140 delegates +27 from Missouri
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While Harris scores yet another statewide win with over 40 percent of the vote, including a strong performance in St. Louis and Kansas City, "Mayor Pete" was the "Comeback Kid" of the night with wins in five of the state's eight congressional districts - all largely located in the "Missou-rah" portions of the state that are largely rural and second-city in nature, and which once formed the backbone of the Democratic Party statewide in happier times. However, Buttigieg's performance in the aforementioned major cities of the state was notably weak as Harris dominated with Warren having her niches in St. Louis as well as in the college town of Columbia, home to the University of Missouri. Warren's poor performance statewide outside of the aforementioned liberal areas was also noted in Kansas City (where Buttigieg performed very well amongst the city's blue-collar voters) and in suburban St. Louis (where most of those Democrats who opposed Harris were uncomfortable with supporting Warren). Suffice it to say, Buttigieg stands to have the biggest windfall out of the halving of the Democratic field following Super Tuesday I.

Meanwhile, the widely anticipated Republican result is too close to call in Missouri, as are the results for both parties in Michigan when 9PM ET rolls around in Detroit along with North Dakota (whose presidential votes are cast in open caucuses). However, around 10PM ET/9PM CT, the picture becomes clearer in the latter...

NORTH DAKOTA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

In tonight's open primary, Republicans here will designate 29 delegates - a relatively large number given the state's recent GOP dominance - based on the presidential results tonight, with delegates to be determined at a caucus later in the month. The results are not binding and are subject to change depending on whether or not a certain candidate is still in the running. The delegates will be allocated proportionally based on the statewide results to candidates with at least 3.449 percent of the vote.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 34.44 percent (11 delegates)
Mike Pence - 23.52 percent (7 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 21.14 percent (6 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 11.12 percent (3 delegates)
Candace Owens - 4.85 percent (2 delegates)
(Remaining 4.93 percent went to other candidates)
NOTE: An extra delegate remained after rounding. Based on the rounding threshold, Owens gains an additional delegate.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 483 delegates +11 from North Dakota
Nikki Haley - 313 delegates +6 from North Dakota
Mike Pence - 170 delegates +7 from North Dakota
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 39 delegates +3 from North Dakota
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 4 delegates +2 from North Dakota
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Despite her endorsement by Gov. Doug Burgum, Haley winds up finishing in third place as DeSantis notches another victory here in North Dakota, with his strongest performance coming in the Fargo and Grand Forks areas. Though Haley does finish a strong second in the eastern metro areas along with a narrow win in the area around the state capital of Bismarck, Pence performs strong enough across much of the state's rural remainder to edge out Haley for second. By virtue of the state's proportional allocation of delegates, Sasse and Owens also gain delegates as well, with the latter's additional delegate (by virtue of having the closest rounding threshold to earn an excess remaining delegate) giving her her first win of multiple delegates within a state. North Dakota's conservative GOP electorate, combined with antipathy regarding Burgum's outspokenness on masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, made the possibility of a Haley victory here particularly challenging while bolstering those of DeSantis (whose endorsement by neighboring Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, known for her own outspoken opposition to lockdowns and mask mandates during the pandemic, combined with DeSantis's criticism of renewable energy subsidies in a state largely defined by its sizable oil and gas presence is believed to have helped the Florida Governor win the state).

NORTH DAKOTA
DEMOCRATIC-NPL FIREHOUSE CAUCUS

In North Dakota, where the state Democratic Party is known as the Democratic-Non Partisan League (or Dem-NPL), 13 pledged delegates will be awarded statewide, including eight from the state's lone congressional district. Caucuses are held at various locations, with votes also being tallied at designated mail-in drop-off locations across the state.

Results of Primary:
Pete Buttigieg - 40.15 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 29.94 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 28.56 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 1.35 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CDAL/Fargo, Bismarck & Grand Forks (8 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1010 delegates +5 from North Dakota
Elizabeth Warren - 454 delegates +3 from North Dakota
Pete Buttigieg - 145 delegates +5 from North Dakota
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

In perhaps a remarkable reminder of the state's moderate-to-conservative bonafides, Buttigieg wins the state by virtue of his over 40 percent of the vote, with Harris pulling in just under 30 percent and Warren not too far behind. However, Buttigieg ends up tying with Harris for five delegates as the latter wins an excess delegate via rounding, with the remaining three delegates going to Warren.

Meanwhile, back in Missouri...

MISSOURI
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Republicans in Missouri will award 54 delegates to candidates, including 24 at the congressional level. These delegates will be awarded to the winners of each congressional district and the statewide total depending on the allocation.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Mike Pence - 30.44 percent
Ron DeSantis - 29.14 percent
Nikki Haley - 22.26 percent
Ben Sasse - 10.85 percent
Candace Owens - 2.74 percent
(Remaining 4.57 percent went to other candidates)

CD1/St. Louis, Clayton & Florissant (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Chesterfield, Kirkwood & O'Fallon (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Jefferson City, St. Charles & Arnold (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD4/Columbia, Harrisonville & Lebanon (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD5/Kansas City (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD6/St. Joseph, Hannibal & Kirksville (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD7/Springfield, Joplin & Branson (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD8/Cape Girardeau, Farmington & West Plains (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
Statewide, at-large (30 delegates):
Mike Pence 30

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 492 delegates +9 from Missouri
Nikki Haley - 313 delegates
Mike Pence - 215 delegates +45 from Missouri
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 39 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 4 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

With regards to the former Vice President's candidacy, all eyes were trained on the Show Me State this evening, and indeed the state's largely rural character played out to Pence's advantage. While DeSantis gets a boost from his strong support in the St. Louis suburbs as well as his endorsement from Sen. Josh Hawley, Pence more or less cleans house across the state's rural areas where both DeSantis and Haley ended up splitting most of the remainder of the vote. While DeSantis's lead definitely remains with an additional nine delegates giving him a total of 492 nationwide, Pence's truckload haul of 45 delegates keeps him in the race.

While the eyes of the political world have shifted to Michigan, it is now 11PM in New York City, 8PM in Seattle and 6PM in Honolulu. The polls have now closed in Washington, Idaho and Hawaii...

IDAHO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Idaho's 20 pledged Democratic delegates will be awarded tonight with 13 of them split between the state's two congressional districts and an additional 7 awarded based on the statewide results.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 46.40 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 29.51 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 21.10 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 2.99 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Coeur d'Alene, Nampa & Lewiston (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Boise, Idaho Falls & Twin Falls (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1019 delegates +9 from Idaho
Elizabeth Warren - 459 delegates +5 from Idaho
Pete Buttigieg - 151 delegates +6 from Idaho
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

In Idaho, Harris continues her winning ways with nine additional delegates across the state, with the congressional results almost evenly balanced in both districts. Buttigieg wins six delegates as well, followed by Warren's five. Most of the Democratic vote for Harris is largely concentrated in the Boise suburbs as well as in the Coeur d'Alene and Twin Falls areas, while Buttigieg's strongest performance is in eastern Idaho and Warren's in the state capital of Boise.

IDAHO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

By contrast, Republicans in Idaho will be awarding 32 delegates either altogether to an absolute majority winner, to candidates with at least 20 percent of the statewide vote on a proportional basis, or to all candidates proportionally.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 46.76 percent (32 delegates)
Mike Pence - 19.74 percent
Nikki Haley - 14.18 percent
Ben Sasse - 12.15 percent
Candace Owens - 4.04 percent
(Remaining 3.13 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 524 delegates +32 from Idaho
Nikki Haley - 313 delegates
Mike Pence - 215 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 39 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 4 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

While DeSantis fails to hit an absolute majority, he ends up winning all delegates as the only candidate to finish with over 20 percent of the vote as Pence barely missed the threshold with his strongest performance coming in rural areas outside of Boise. DeSantis's strongest numbers are in the Boise suburbs where his numbers exceed 50 percent, while Haley is largely invisible outside of Boise and other moderate and urban areas across the state. Sasse, the only other candidate to exceed double digits statewide, performs more strongly in the eastern parts of the state adjacent to Utah where a sizable Latter-day Saint population exists, but otherwise generally does not exceed 15 percent of the vote in any of the state's counties.

HAWAII
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Hawaii's 22 pledged Democratic delegates will be split between seven in each of the state's two congressional districts (one in Honolulu, the other covering the rest of the state) and eight statewide including three PLEOs.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 72.26 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 13.18 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 11.94 percent
(Remaining 2.62 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Honolulu (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
CD2/Kailua, Hilo & Maui (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1041 delegates +22 from Hawaii
Elizabeth Warren - 459 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 151 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

The combination of Barack Obama's endorsement, a large Asian-American population and a strong reputation for liberal politics is more than enough to give Harris a dominant performance in the Hawaiian Islands, with no other candidate exceeding the 15 percent threshold necessary for Democrats to win pledged delegates.

HAWAII
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Republicans will be awarding 19 delegates to qualifying candidates across the Hawaiian Islands in tonight's precinct caucuses. Six of these delegates will come from the state's two congressional districts, while others will be delegated based on statewide results.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Nikki Haley - 31.41 percent
Ron DeSantis - 28.66 percent
Mike Pence - 15.56 percent
Ben Sasse - 14.75 percent
Candace Owens - 6.05 percent
(Remaining 3.57 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Honolulu (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 1, Nikki Haley 1, Ben Sasse 1
CD2/Kailua, Hilo & Maui (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (10 delegates):
Nikki Haley 3, Ron DeSantis 3, Mike Pence 2, Ben Sasse 1, Candace Owens 1
RNC Leaders (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 1, Ron DeSantis 1, Mike Pence 1

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 530 delegates +6 from Hawaii
Nikki Haley - 319 delegates +6 from Hawaii
Mike Pence - 219 delegates +4 from Hawaii
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 41 delegates +2 from Hawaii
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates +1 from Hawaii
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 29 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

The combination of Hawaii's proportional allocations, a more moderate GOP electorate, a sizable Mormon population and the caucus format (as well the Asian ethnicity of one particular candidate) all contributed to a more variegated result with Haley pulling off a narrow win over DeSantis, with both winning six delegates each.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #167 on: May 25, 2022, 04:41:28 PM »

Later in the evening...

WASHINGTON
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Democrats in Washington's mixed primary will allocate 92 delegates - 60 at the congressional level - pledged to candidates who cross the DNC's 15 percent threshold at either the congressional or statewide level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 45.34 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 31.85 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 18.32 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.49 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Bellevue, Kirkland & Marysville (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3
CD2/Everett, Bellingham & Lynnwood (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3
CD3/Vancouver, Centralia & Longview (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Yakima, Richland & Omak (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Spokane, Walla Walla & Pullman (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD6/Tacoma, Aberdeen & Bremerton (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD7/Seattle (Capitol Hill, Northgate, West Seattle), Burien & Vashon Island (11 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 7, Kamala Harris 4
CD8/Sammamish, Eatonville & Wenatchee (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD9/Seattle (Chinatown, Rainier Valley), Mercer Island & Federal Way (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3
CD10/Olympia, Lakewood & Puyallup (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (12 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
At-Large Delegates (20 delegates):
Kamala Harris 9, Elizabeth Warren 7, Pete Buttigieg 4

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1086 delegates +45 from Washington
Elizabeth Warren - 496 delegates +37 from Washington
Pete Buttigieg - 161 delegates +10 from Washington
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

In the Evergreen State, Vice President Harris pulls off a plurality win, but the result is incredibly close with Warren being competitive across much of the Puget Sound region (where the progressive Senator wins four districts including a near-dominant performance in the Seattle-based 7th (whose incumbent progressive U.S. Rep., Pramila Jayapal, has endorsed her). In the state's other six districts, Harris performs more strongly including the Puget Sound region's three other suburban districts, as well as in southwest Washington (including Vancouver and other northern suburbs of Portland, Oregon) and in areas east of the Cascades around Spokane and Yakima. Despite being the former Secretary of Transportation (for which Washington is a critical state given Seattle's longstanding presence as a port city and its long association with Boeing) as well as the only openly gay candidate remaining in the Democratic primary, Buttigieg is virtually shut out of metro Seattle with all of his delegates coming either statewide or from congressional districts outside of the region.

WASHINGTON
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

44 delegates will be awarded to presidential candidates in tonight's mixed Republican primary, with 30 of those delegates coming from congressional districts and 14 coming at-large based on the statewide results. At the congressional level, a candidate will receive all three of a district's delegates if they either win an absolute majority or are the only candidate with at least 20 percent of the vote; otherwise, they will either receive two delegates if multiple candidates win 20 percent with the runner-up getting one or the top three candidates will each receive a delegate. The statewide delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates who have won at least 20 percent of the vote, with any remaining delegates becoming unbound to any candidate.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Nikki Haley - 36.52 percent
Ron DeSantis - 27.86 percent
Mike Pence - 15.81 percent
Ben Sasse - 13.01 percent
Candace Owens - 3.94 percent
(Remaining 2.86 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Bellevue, Kirkland & Marysville (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD2/Everett, Bellingham & Lynnwood (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD3/Vancouver, Centralia & Longview (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD4/Yakima, Richland & Omak (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD5/Spokane, Walla Walla & Pullman (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD6/Tacoma, Aberdeen & Bremerton (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD7/Seattle (Capitol Hill, Northgate, West Seattle), Burien & Vashon Island (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ben Sasse 1
CD8/Sammamish, Eatonville & Wenatchee (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD9/Seattle (Chinatown, Rainier Valley), Mercer Island & Federal Way (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD10/Olympia, Lakewood & Puyallup (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
Statewide, at-large (14 delegates):
Nikki Haley 5, Ron DeSantis 4 (5 delegates remain unbound)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 547 delegates +17 from Washington
Nikki Haley - 339 delegates +20 from Washington
Mike Pence - 220 delegates +1 from Washington
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates +1 from Washington
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates, including five from Washington, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Haley's strong performance in and around the Puget Sound, including Seattle and its suburbs, empowers the former Ambassador to a nearly nine percent victory margin over DeSantis statewide as well as wins in all but one of the seven districts covering at least a portion of metro Seattle. DeSantis's four district wins come in the 10th District (which includes the state capital of Olympia as well as some suburbs of Tacoma) and in the three districts outside of the Puget Sound including both districts primarily east of the Cascades in Spokane (5th) and Yakima (4th), as well as the southwest-based 3rd in the Portland, Oregon metro area. Each district result is a plurality winner with a runner-up over 20 percent, with Haley or DeSantis as the runner-up except in two districts - the 4th (where Pence placed second) and the Seattle-based 7th (where Sasse won just over 20 percent, mostly around the University of Washington and Seattle University).

MICHIGAN
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

In Michigan, Democrats will award 76 of its 117 pledged delegates at the congressional level, with the remaining 41 to be awarded based on the statewide results.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 34.01 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 31.69 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 30.11 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.19 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Traverse City, Alpena & Marquette (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Mount Pleasant, Cadillac & Hastings (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Grand Rapids, Muskegon & Kentwood (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD4/Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor & Holland (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD5/Jackson, Sturgis & Monroe (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD6/Ann Arbor, Novi & Grosse Ile (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD7/Lansing, Brighton & Howell (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD8/Flint, Bay City & Midland (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD9/Macomb Township, Port Huron & Bad Axe (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD10/Sterling Heights, Warren & Rochester Hills (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD11/Farmington Hills, Troy & Pontiac (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD12/Dearborn, Livonia & Southfield (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD13/Detroit (except NW Detroit), Grosse Pointe & Romulus (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (15 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Pete Buttigieg 5, Elizabeth Warren 5
At-Large Delegates (26 delegates):
Kamala Harris 9, Pete Buttigieg 9, Elizabeth Warren 8

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1128 delegates +42 from Michigan
Elizabeth Warren - 532 delegates +35 from Michigan
Pete Buttigieg - 200 delegates +40 from Michigan
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

The result in Michigan ends up being a very close one as Harris narrowly holds off Buttigieg and Warren thanks to her strong support in Metro Detroit, with her strongest performances coming in both Detroit itself as well as Oakland County. Buttigieg, meanwhile recorded his strongest support generally in more rural and blue-collar parts of the state north of Interstate 94, yet his strongest district overall was the 5th District that covers all of Lower Michigan's southern border (part of which ties into the Michiana area anchored in his hometown of South Bend, Ind.). Warren tended to perform strongest in the Grand Rapids area as well as in Lansing and Ann Arbor, both college towns home to respective Big Ten powerhouses Michigan State and Michigan, with the former also being the state capital. Overall, all of the candidates won delegates in every congressional district, with the results being virtually even in some of the districts. Despite losing to Harris, the result is still a victory for Buttigieg who needed a sizable gain of delegates in the run up to next Tuesday's critical Midwest primaries.

MICHIGAN
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

A total of 56 delegates will be allocated to candidates in tonight's open Republican primary, with an absolute majority winner earning all of the state's delegates. If there is no absolute winner, candidates either with at least 20 percent of the vote or at least the top vote getter minus 5 percent of their total (depending on the results) will be allocated delegates proportionally.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Mike Pence - 34.15 percent (23 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 28.10 percent (19 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 20.85 percent (14 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 9.75 percent
Candace Owens - 4.11 percent
(Remaining 3.04 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 566 delegates +19 from Michigan
Nikki Haley - 353 delegates +14 from Michigan
Mike Pence - 243 delegates +23 from Michigan
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates, including five from Washington, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Pence keeps his slim hopes of winning the Republican presidential nomination alive by scoring a sizable win in Michigan, with his best performances largely coming from areas north of Interstate 94 (which cuts through Kalamazoo, Jackson, Ann Arbor and half of Detroit). DeSantis, fueled by his endorsement from the DeVos family as well as prominent conservative groups including top leaders at the influential Hillsdale College, manages to place second on the strength of his sizable support in West Michigan as well as in the Metro Detroit suburbs, which also happens to be Haley's strongest performing area statewide; one of the more interesting results is in Dearborn, a major epicenter for Arab American culture and home to the World Headquarters of the Ford Motor Company, where Haley won over 40 percent of the vote amongst Republicans there. However, Haley was virtually nonexistent north of Mid-Michigan, only winning under a paltry 15 percent in the Upper Peninsula (which was dominated by Pence with DeSantis being a strong second).

While the Super Tuesday II results have largely been counted, it is not the only result that has come out tonight...there is also the last remnant of Super Tuesday I that has been made official as well...

DEMOCRATS ABROAD
VIRTUAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Originally having begun on Super Tuesday, the Democrats Abroad virtual primary saw its votes tabulated over a one-week period, open to U.S. nationals residing abroad as expatriates in nearly 200 countries around the world. A Global Convention will be held next month in Toronto, Canada to determine the delegates (including 13 pledged delegates) who will represent this delegation at the Democratic National Convention.

Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Elizabeth Warren - 46.85 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 30.58 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 17.61 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.96 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (1 delegate):
Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (12 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 6, Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1132 delegates +4 from Democrats Abroad
Elizabeth Warren - 539 delegates +7 from Democrats Abroad
Pete Buttigieg - 202 delegates +2 from Democrats Abroad
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

With most of the expatriates coming from countries whose left aisles are dominated by socialist and labor parties or which have robust safety nets (e.g. national social services and health insurance systems), Warren scores a sizable victory in this global caucus, while Harris tended to perform more strongly amongst those whose disposition is more straight liberal (along with outsized support in African and Asian nations given her ethnic pedigree, including a near sweep of votes from India). Buttigieg barely registered in the results, but still performed well enough to earn two delegates from this delegation.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #168 on: May 30, 2022, 02:16:33 PM »

March 12, 2024
PENCE STORMS BACK IN MICHIGAN, MISSOURI; BUTTIGIEG HANGS TOUGH IN MIDWEST
With their backs against the wall in their respective presidential primaries, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg hedged their bets on Michigan and Missouri to give them some extra insurance heading into next week's "Super Tuesday III" primaries. Needless to say, that is exactly what both Hoosiers got on Tuesday, even in a slight loss for one of them, as Pence rode to victories in both states while Buttigieg finished a strong second to Vice President Kamala Harris and also won North Dakota to stay in their respective presidential primaries.

Michigan was the biggest prize for both parties on Tuesday, with 117 pledged Democratic and 56 Republican delegates at stake - albeit only two delegates higher than Missouri in the latter, as Michigan went for Biden and Missouri went for Trump in 2020. Pence won Michigan with nearly 35 percent of the vote - more than six percent higher than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis - on the strength of his dominant performance north of Lansing, Detroit and Grand Rapids along Interstate 94 as Pence's traditional conservative views won over blue-collar and rural voters in Mid-Michigan as well as the Upper Peninsula. The same "Heartland Dynamics" also powered Pence to victory in Missouri, where Pence performed strongly in the Kansas City area as well as in rural Missouri. Speaking before an audience at the Sheraton Hotel at Kansas City's Crown Center, Pence declared "This race is not over. Next week, we are going into overdrive and the Heartland will have the last word on who the next President will be!" (Editor's note: The Sheraton that Mike Pence is at is the former Hyatt Regency Hotel in Kansas City where dozens were killed in a horrible skywalk collapse back in 1981.)

Gov. DeSantis, meanwhile, was at the Hyatt Regency near O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, where early voting has already begun for next week's presidential primary in Illinois. DeSantis remarked, "Mike Pence may have supposedly won tonight, but the fact of the matter is the heart of conservatism and the battle for the future of the Republican Party - and America - runs through Chicago," perhaps alluding to the historic role of Chicago and Illinois in the postwar conservative movement as well as Reaganomics and the Reagan Revolution during his speech. Despite losing Michigan and Missouri, DeSantis still finished a strong second in both states and only lost Missouri by just over one percent; outside of Pence's 30 earned statewide delegates, Pence only won 15 congressional delegates to DeSantis's nine which were won in the two St. Louis-dominant districts (1st and 2nd) as well as the conservative, Springfield-based 7th.

Former Ambassador Nikki Haley finished a distant third in Michigan, Missouri and North Dakota despite earning the endorsement of Gov. Doug Burgum in the latter, while also ending up with no delegates in Idaho which awarded all of its delegates to DeSantis as Haley, Pence and Sen. Ben Sasse all had percentages in the teens. However, Haley did score victories in Washington and Hawaii later in the evening, where she scored slight victories over DeSantis. Speaking at a rally near Phoenix, Arizona (where early voting is also underway), Haley remarked on her impending wins on the West Coast, "As they used to say in the past, Horace Greeley's old adage of 'Go west, young man' holds true today - and if someone tells me to 'Go west, young woman', I'll take it! Because the West is where our campaign was won tonight, and the West will decide where we go from here".

Interestingly, Arizona will be the only state west of the Mississippi up for grabs next week, as over half of the remaining delegates will be decided next week in mostly Midwestern states as well as Florida and Georgia. 1,085 delegates remain to be contested, with 587 of them at stake next Tuesday. Many argue that Pence's chances (1,007 delegates versus 897 for Haley and 684 for DeSantis) are next to impossible, especially with Florida all but set to award its delegates on a winner-take-all basis, which would give favorite son DeSantis a commanding advantage over his rivals on Tuesday, and that Pence's best hope is for a contested convention between the three rivals.

Buttigieg, meanwhile, was at the Atheneum Suite Hotel in Detroit on Tuesday where he touted his win in North Dakota and second-place finishes in Michigan and Missouri. "The media says Kamala Harris won, but tonight we were the real winners!" Buttigieg also acknowledged that "the road may be difficult, but we are going to fight hard for every vote", as his strong performances tonight kept him mathematically within reach of winning the Democratic presidential nomination. Indeed, Buttigieg's path to the Democratic nomination is impossible; of the remaining 1,685 pledged delegates, he would have to sweep all remaining 1,683 pledged delegates to catch Harris (not counting the latter's large advantage amongst automatic delegates who overwhelmingly favor the Vice President), and with no new volunteer openings for "Mayor Pete"'s all-but moribund presidential campaign, it is already acknowledged that Buttigieg is merely staying in the race "so that he can wrap it up in his home state".

As for Harris, she still won the other five states other than North Dakota to various degrees, with her most dominant performance coming in Hawaii (where she won over 70 percent and all of the state's 22 delegates) along with winning over 40 percent in Idaho, Washington and Missouri, as Michigan evenly split between the three Democratic rivals with Harris winning 42 delegates to Buttigieg's 39 and 36 for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose strong performance amongst White liberals and progressives in Detroit, Seattle and amongst progressives in the other states kept her in the race. Warren also won the virtual Democrats Abroad primary where she won 7 delegates - more than double her rivals - after a week of votes counted from leftist and liberal American expatriates in over 180 countries worldwide.



Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: JGlover

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: JGlover

March 14, 2024
FOX NEWS HOSTS FINAL REPUBLICAN DEBATE IN ATLANTA
With next week's contests shaping up to be the last stand for at least one, if not two of the remaining candidates that have not been mathematically eliminated, Fox News host Sean Hannity presided over the final Republican debate of the 2024 campaign on Thursday night in Atlanta. The debate was held at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre in a northwestern sliver of the city in suburban Cobb County, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 566 delegates, front and center on the stage, and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (353 delegates) and former Vice President Mike Pence (243 delegates) the only other candidates participating as all three of the Republicans are the only ones with a mathematical chance of winning the GOP presidential nomination. Fox News Sunday anchor Bret Baier and Atlanta-based Fox News correspondent Jonathan Serrie also joined Hannity on the panel moderating the debate, which was held before a packed audience as the candidates made one final joint appeal before the last of the Super Tuesdays commence.

Throughout the debate, much of the discussion centered on Pence's electability and whether or not Tuesday's primaries will mark the end of the road for him. One of the key factors will be whether or not his recent endorsement by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who called Pence "one of the greatest Vice Presidents in the history of our nation" during a rally in suburban Alpharetta on Wednesday, will make any difference in the race. When asked by Baier if his endorsement by Kemp will give him an advantage on Tuesday despite Haley and DeSantis hailing from neighboring states, Pence responded, "I have zero doubt that my endorsement by Gov. Kemp is proof that voters deserve a Republican President who actually accomplished the successful agenda of Donald Trump the whole way through, as opposed to only being in D.C. half the time and not even in the same place," alluding to Haley's time as Ambassador to the United Nations and DeSantis's last term in Congress before his razor-thin election as Governor of Florida in 2018, and also implying that "Trump only endorsed Gov. DeSantis because he's from Florida". DeSantis took offense to Pence's remarks, arguing "What Mike Pence fails to see is that Donald Trump made him, for if it were not for Trump, Pence would just be another boring Republican Governor without a distinguished record. I actually made Florida great again, whereas Pence left his state to a milquetoast successor who couldn't even stand up for female student-athletes or even Christians".

Haley, meanwhile, emphasized the importance of global leadership on the world stage, as well as the importance of "bringing high-paying domestic and International companies to all corners of the country, just like I did in convincing companies like Boeing and Volvo to come to South Carolina as opposed to larger, flashier states like Florida". When asked by moderator Serrie about the importance of broadening the GOP tent beyond so-called "ultra MAGA" voters, Haley responded "The Republican Party is a much bigger tent than most realize, and the strong support that our campaign has gotten from millennials, from minorities including Black voters in south Atlanta and Asians and Latinos north of Atlanta, and from voters both in metro Atlanta and around the state, is proof that our party is already broad in its support". However, Haley also stressed the importance of focusing on issues "that aim to help make the lives of families and communities better" instead of "continuously approaching our elections the way an ambulance chaser would", and vowed to "err on the side of democracy if the result weren't exactly optimal", pointing to the 2022 elections in Georgia, "They came from Brian Kemp's head and Brad Raffensperger's family, and they still won the primary and the general election anyway, so what's the point of being so angry?". In short, Haley argued that to win, Republicans "need to work harder to win votes and actually keep their promises like Donald Trump did, like Brian Kemp has, and like I did in South Carolina".

While Pence and Haley aimed to chip away at DeSantis throughout Thursday night's debate, DeSantis made his case for winning on Tuesday on his work as Governor of next-door Florida. "We have done so well in Florida that some even wonder if Atlanta is an extension of us, and we even get calls from big-time Kemp voters who wish I was their Governor". DeSantis continue to allude to his own success as Governor, his endorsement by Donald Trump, and called Kemp "a good leader who serves his state with dignity" while also calling it shameful that (former Sen. and one-time gubernatorial foe) David Perdue isn't in the Senate. "I seriously wish David Perdue were still a Senator, if only we worked harder between Trump, Kemp and myself to get him over the finish line". Indeed, 2020 never seemed to escape DeSantis; when asked by Hannity if he would certify the election in his state should Kamala Harris win, DeSantis responded "Of course, I wouldn't be happy and I would be questioning the voter fraud that exists in places like Orlando and Miami, but I would still certify the result for Kamala Harris if that's what it comes to. Except I am going to win Florida of course, and thanks to the great conservative leadership of our state and our party locally, it's going to be a long, cold day in hell before Florida even goes for anyone other than a Republican. The Democrats had the upper hand when I got elected in registration terms...Not anymore".

With the final debate now concluded, the remaining three Republicans turned their focus to winning over last minute votes across the Midwest and Sunbelt, as DeSantis proceeded to barnstorm across the Midwest throughout the weekend, while Haley staked her claims on the suburbs of Chicago and Columbus, Ohio, as well as Arizona and Georgia. The one with the most to lose is Pence, who makes a frantic push for votes across his home turf in the Midwest and whose supporters are now hoping for the impossible: a brokered convention with Pence as a potential running mate or even an 11th-hour dalliance with Trump. Trump dismisses this however, "No way in hell is Mike Pence going to be dogcatcher let alone Vice President. He should just give it up and go back home to Indiana where he belongs!".

March 17, 2024
CANDIDATES HOPE TO GET LUCKY IN FINAL PUSH BEFORE 'BIG TEN SUPER TUESDAY'
With Tuesday's pivotal Super Tuesday III contests - now known as the "Big Ten Super Tuesday" as a nod to the core states of the Big Ten Conference being the main battleground for Tuesday - looming, candidates on both sides made one final push to convince voters to go for them as early voting wraps up in several of these states with so much on the line. Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania are all home to several Big Ten schools, with Wisconsin set to begin early voting as well during the week for its contest on April 2nd - two weeks after Super Tuesday III concludes. The race will also include contests in Florida, Georgia and Arizona, where on Friday former Vice President Mike Pence received the endorsement of former Gov. Doug Ducey.

Fresh off his endorsements by Ducey and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp earlier in the week, Pence then traveled to Ohio on Saturday to earn the endorsement of Gov. Mike DeWine, whose second term as a U.S. Senator dovetailed with Pence's first three terms in Congress from an eastern Indiana congressional district bordering Ohio, one now held by Pence's brother Greg. "I am honored to consider the Vice President a friend, and am looking forward to seeing him as our President next January!", proclaimed DeWine during a rally in Dayton where he also endorsed his Lieutenant Governor, Jon Husted, for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown; U.S. Rep. and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, is also running in that race. The state's other U.S. Senator, Republican freshman J.D. Vance, was having none of it however as he endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during a campaign stop in the Cleveland suburb of Strongsville, "There is only one Republican who will fight to put America first, and his name is Ron DeSantis!".

DeSantis then traveled to Pittsburgh for a large rally at PNC Park, home of Major League Baseball's Pittsburgh Pirates, where DeSantis received the endorsement of several prominent western Pennsylvania Republicans and other dignitaries including various former pro athletes amongst the city's prominent sports teams (including of course the Steelers), unsurprising for someone whose family planted roots in the region from the time his ancestors came from Italy until his parents eventually moved to Florida before Ron DeSantis was born. Looming large over all the endorsements, however, was that of Gov. Doug Mastriano who endorsed "my fellow Italian partner-in-crime, and the pride of those who built western Pennsylvania without actually being born here, Ron DeSantis!" DeSantis thanked Mastriano and the others for their friendship, and also declared "It feels great to be home where my ancestors planted their roots, right here in western Pennsylvania, and from here to Florida and beyond victory is in sight!" While he did not endorse DeSantis on stage, U.S. Senate hopeful Dave McCormick, now running again in 2024, was in attendance from a luxury suite in the stadium along with fellow candidates Lou Barletta and Dan Meuser, among others, and all in different suites throughout the ballpark.

Former Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, held a rally in the Philadelphia suburb of Doylestown on Saturday where she urged the crowd "to not fall asleep at the wheel, and to get proactive in getting our next President of the United States, standing before you, elected" and alluded "it's now or never for the future of our country!". Haley then flew to Arizona for a rally on Saturday night at the Arizona Biltmore Resort in Phoenix, where she picked up endorsements from former U.S. Sen. Martha McSally as well as commentator Meghan McCain, daughter of the late U.S. Sen. John McCain. "16 years ago, my dad proudly stood before you on Election Night on this very stage, and while it wasn't the result he wanted, he never wavered because his country mattered more to him than himself. Now, it is critical that we get behind the one candidate in the Republican presidential fight who will put our country first when it matters, and that candidate is Nikki Haley!", declared the younger McCain on Saturday night.

Prominent neoconservative commentator Bill Kristol, who switched to the Democratic Party as he was exiled by the GOP during the Trump era, called Haley "the last best hope for a Republican Party that exemplifies defending democracy versus isolating ourselves to our own peril" during a column on Sunday; this column drew predictable jeers from many conservatives with commentator Matthew Walsh calling Kristol "a relic of a bygone era that many conservatives would rather leave in the rearview mirror". Walsh also took a shot at fellow conservative commentator Ben Shapiro (who has also endorsed Haley) during his weekend podcast, and even offered to give Shapiro a "diaper detox", using an oversized adult diaper for Ben "to expel the neocon waste out of his body" and be inducted as a "life member" of his "Sweet Baby Gang", referring to his podcast's followers. An obviously unimpressed Shapiro rejected the offer in response, declaring "I will not be intimidated to wear diapers for the satisfaction of Matthew Walsh" and also pointed to weaknesses in DeSantis's foreign policy doctrine as reasons for supporting Haley, even going as far as posting a doctored picture of a man in a 1920s-era full-body bathing suit with Walsh's head affixed to it - "This is what Matthew Walsh wears to the beach!".

On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris headlined a rally on New York City's Roosevelt Island, where she picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton who declared "The race is over. Kamala Harris will be our next President, and it will be over before Ron DeSantis even gets his hands on it, because we're going to also win Florida as well." A DeSantis spox responded by pointing to "the Clintons' failed legacy as President - one whose only true supporters are brainless hipsters from Brooklyn and the mainstream media", while social media followers of DeSantis began sharing memes relating to the Clintons, alluding to everything from the suicide of Jeffrey Epstein to the deaths of Seth Rich and Ron Brown. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, was in Ohio on Saturday herself during a rally with Sen. Brown on the campus of Kent State University, where she won the Senator's endorsements and vowed "to fight hard for every American worker and others who desire a nation built on peace and dignity", before traveling to the Pittsburgh area on Sunday to win the endorsement of Sen. John Fetterman. Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg barnstormed across the Midwest from New York to Wisconsin over the weekend, with almost all of the appearances involving David Letterman and Paul Shaffer as entertainment. One of these appearances included a private concert for Buttigieg's campaign staffers and top donors at Buddy Guy's Legends in Chicago on Sunday night - at the twilight of St. Patrick's Day, featuring Shaffer and his "World's Most Dangerous Band" performing on stage, as well as Buttigieg himself singing "Sweet Home Chicago" while dressed as a leprechaun.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #169 on: May 31, 2022, 03:24:12 PM »

This is it. It's Tuesday March 19th. The last of the Super Tuesdays. However, it is not until 8PM when the first state is declared as Indiana and Georgia are close for both parties, as is Ohio (which closed at 7:30PM versus 7PM in the other states) and most of Florida save for the Panhandle. The first result that is called for the night, however, is to no great surprise...

FLORIDA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Florida's closed GOP primary will award 126 delegates - the biggest prize of the night. However, it is all a wash as Florida Republicans decided to award the delegates in a winner-take-all primary, with all of the delegates going to the candidate with the most votes in tonight's primary. Not surprisingly, all of the delegates are awarded to a certain favorite son...

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 80.24 percent (126 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 9.51 percent
Mike Pence - 5.45 percent
Candace Owens - 1.35 percent
Ben Sasse - 1.13 percent
(Remaining 2.32 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 692 delegates +126 from Florida
Nikki Haley - 353 delegates
Mike Pence - 243 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

In arguably the least surprising result of the night, DeSantis scores a commanding win in his home state, with a whopping 80 percent of the vote in a state where many have taken to wearing "DeSantisland" shirts, some including the Magic Kingdom of Walt Disney World (ironic considering the Governor's infamous spat with Disney over the so-called "Don't Say Gay" bill that sparked a match in the country's culture wars. The only area of the state considered even remotely competitive for anyone other than DeSantis is South Florida, and even there he still won big as his smallest percentage statewide - in Miami-Dade County - was a whopping 66.29 percent with Haley earning well north of 20 percent and a sizable five percent still voting for Sen. Marco Rubio (who has since dropped out and endorsed Haley). In other parts of the state, Haley only fared above 10 percent in such urbanized counties as Broward (Fort Lauderdale), Orange (Orlando) and Hillsborough (Tampa), while Pence managed to score his highest numbers around 10 percent in the Panhandle, especially west of Tallahassee. With the result, Pence is mathematically eliminated, while Haley will need to run the table across the country to stay alive - a scenario that itself is mathematically impossible.

FLORIDA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Florida Democrats will offer the third-largest amount of pledged delegates in the country from tonight's closed primaries - a total of 224 pledged delegates including 146 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 47.34 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 24.45 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 21.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 6.72 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach & Crestview (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD2/Tallahassee, Panama City & Defuniak Springs (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD3/Gainesville, Ocala & Lake City (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Jacksonville (west), Fernandina Beach & Orange Park (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Jacksonville (east), Atlantic Beach & St. Augustine (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Daytona Beach, Palm Coast & Palatka (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD7/Altamonte Springs, Port Orange & Deltona (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Melbourne, Vero Beach & Titusville (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD9/Conway, Kissimmee & Poinciana (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD10/Orlando, Wedgefield & Winter Park (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Clermont, The Villages & Winter Garden (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD12/New Port Richey, Brooksville & Inverness (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD13/Clearwater, Pinellas Park & Tarpon Springs (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD14/Tampa, St. Petersburg & Town 'n' Country (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD15/Carrollwood, Plant City & Zephyrhills (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD16/Bradenton, Riverview & Myakka City (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD17/Sarasota, Port Charlotte & Lehigh Acres (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD18/Lakeland, Sebring & Okeechobee (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD19/Fort Myers, Naples & Cape Coral (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD20/West Palm Beach, Lauderhill & Belle Glade (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD21/Palm Beach Gardens, Fort Pierce & Palm City (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD22/Palm Beach, Delray Beach & Wellington (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD23/Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton & Parkland (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD24/Miami Beach, North Miami & Pembroke Pines (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD25/Hollywood, Davie & Miramar (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD26/Hialeah, Doral & Immokalee (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD27/Miami, Coral Gables & Palmetto Bay (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD28/Homestead, Sweetwater & Key West (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (29 delegates):
Kamala Harris 15, Pete Buttigieg 7, Elizabeth Warren 7
At-Large Delegates (49 delegates):
Kamala Harris 25, Pete Buttigieg 13, Elizabeth Warren 11

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1266 delegates +134 from Florida
Elizabeth Warren - 579 delegates +40 from Florida
Pete Buttigieg - 252 delegates +50 from Florida
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

To no great surprise, Harris romped throughout Florida, winning nearly twice as many votes as her nearest competitor and more than Buttigieg and Warren combined. While Buttigieg performed notably well in the Panhandle as well as in areas with large numbers of military voters and retirees, he was nearly invisible in South Florida where his only delegates in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area were won in the 24th (which includes Miami Beach) and in the 28th further south (home to a sizable military presence in Homestead). Warren, meanwhile turned in her strongest performances in areas with large numbers of government employees and White liberals, including the state capital of Tallahassee and the college town of Gainesville (home to the University of Florida), while also shutting Buttigieg out in much of South Florida and coming in a strong second in Orange County (home to Orlando, where firebrand progressive former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson prominently backed Warren). Warren, however notably underperformed in the Tampa Bay area. Harris wins a commanding delegate advantage in Florida, while mathematically eliminating Buttigieg from earning the Democratic nomination.

ILLINOIS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Democrats in Illinois will allocate 147 pledged delegates, including 96 at the congressional level, in tonight's primary.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 44.44 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 30.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 21.41 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 3.52 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
(Editor's note: The congressional delegates will be allocated based on a map redrawn by the courts in this TL.)
CD1/Chicago (Loop, Hyde Park, West Side) & Oak Park (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Chicago (Bridgeport, South Side), Calumet City & Crete (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Chicago (O'Hare, Belmont Cragin), Schiller Park & Elgin (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Chicago (Midway, West Pullman), Burbank & Cicero (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Chicago (North Park, Dunning), Rosemont & Schaumburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Wheaton, Naperville & Addison (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Orland Park, La Grange & Darien (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/McHenry, Palatine & Geneva (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Chicago (Near North Side, Uptown), Evanston & Skokie (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD10/Waukegan, Northbrook & Lindenhurst (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Joliet, Kankakee & Bolingbrook (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD12/East St. Louis, Carbondale & Edwardsville (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD13/Springfield, Champaign & Decatur (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD14/Aurora, Bloomington & Ottawa (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD15/Centralia, Danville & Carlinville (3 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD16/Rockford, Eureka & DeKalb (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD17/Peoria, Moline & Quincy (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (19 delegates):
Kamala Harris 9, Pete Buttigieg 6, Elizabeth Warren 4
At-Large Delegates (32 delegates):
Kamala Harris 15, Pete Buttigieg 10, Elizabeth Warren 7

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1345 delegates +79 from Illinois
Elizabeth Warren - 604 delegates +25 from Illinois
Pete Buttigieg - 295 delegates +43 from Illinois
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Unsurprisingly, the Vice President also performed well in Illinois, particularly in the Chicago area where her endorsement by former President Barack Obama and other prominent Democrats (including Sen. and potential running mate Tammy Duckworth) proved valuable to Democratic voters in the Windy City and its surrounding suburbs. However, outside of Chicagoland voters were more inclined to favor Buttigieg who performed notably well in communities bordering Indiana, with the former Transportation Secretary even winning three districts downstate and several rural counties. While Warren did well with White liberals in Chicago as well as college students across the state, her performance was notably weak in Chicago's collar counties (DuPage, Lake, McHenry, etc.) and especially downstate where she won only one delegate in the Central Illinois-based 13th District (home to the main campus of the University of Illinois as well as the state capital of Springfield).

PENNSYLVANIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

In Pennsylvania, Democrats will allocate 146 pledged delegates to qualifying candidates, with 95 of them to be allocated at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 38.15 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 29.71 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 27.62 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.52 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Bensalem, Doylestown & Franconia (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Philadelphia (Center City, Frankford & Northeast) (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD3/Philadelphia (West Side, Roxborough & Pennsport) (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Bala Cynwyd, Abington & Kutztown (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Chester, King of Prussia & Philadelphia (South, Sports Complex) (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD6/West Chester, Reading & Valley Forge (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Allentown, Bethlehem & Jim Thorpe (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Scranton, Wilkes-Barre & Milford (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Williamsport, Lebanon & Berwick (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD10/Harrisburg, York & Carlisle (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Lancaster, Hanover & Lititz (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD12/Pittsburgh, Bethel Park & Irwin (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD13/Johnstown, Gettysburg & Lewistown (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD14/Washington, Latrobe & Uniontown (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2
CD15/State College, Bradford & Kittanning (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD16/Erie, New Castle & Butler (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD17/Mount Lebanon, Aliquippa & Penn Hills (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (19 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Pete Buttigieg 6, Elizabeth Warren 5
At-Large Delegates (32 delegates):
Kamala Harris 13, Pete Buttigieg 10, Elizabeth Warren 9

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1404 delegates +59 from Pennsylvania
Elizabeth Warren - 646 delegates +42 from Pennsylvania
Pete Buttigieg - 340 delegates +45 from Pennsylvania
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While Pennsylvania's results turn out to be surprisingly competitive, Harris's strong performance in the Delaware Valley - the home base of the Bidens - is enough to give the Vice President a sizable win in the Keystone State. Despite a more-than-eight percent victory margin, Harris's performance in western and central Pennsylvania is noticeably weak, usually placing third in most of the "T" and the Pittsburgh metro area with the exception of urban and suburban areas surrounding Wilkes-Barre, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg. Warren's left-populist economic views enables her to win a sizable base of votes in many blue-collar cities around western Pennsylvania including Erie and Johnstown, in addition to the area surrounding Happy Valley (including State College where the main campus of Penn State is located). However, with Harris's victory in Pennsylvania, Warren is now mathematically eliminated herself, even though no candidate has clinched the magical number of 1,885 pledged delegates and Warren's campaign was already considered moribund given Harris's large support from automatic delegates.

GEORGIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Georgia Democrats will award 108 pledged delegates to qualified candidates in tonight's primary.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 58.03 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 22.10 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 13.31 percent
(Remaining 6.56 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Savannah, Brunswick & Waycross (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Albany, Macon & Columbus (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD3/Peachtree City, Carrollton & LaGrange (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
CD4/Stone Mountain, Dunwoody & Covington (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/Atlanta, Decatur & Sandy Springs (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD6/Alpharetta, Blackwells & Cumming (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Lawrenceville, Johns Creek & Lilburn (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Valdosta, Milledgeville & Moultrie (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD9/Suwanee, Dahlonega & Toccoa (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD10/Athens, McDonough & Sparta (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Marietta, Cartersville & Jasper (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD12/Augusta, Statesboro & Dublin (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD13/Riverdale, Douglasville & Stockbridge (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
CD14/Dalton, Rome & Powder Springs (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (14 delegates):
Kamala Harris 10, Pete Buttigieg 4
At-Large Delegates (24 delegates):
Kamala Harris 17, Pete Buttigieg 7

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1482 delegates +78 from Georgia
Elizabeth Warren - 653 delegates +7 from Georgia
Pete Buttigieg - 363 delegates +23 from Georgia
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

In Georgia, Harris turned in a dominating performance, especially in Metro Atlanta where Harris won upwards of 60-70 percent of the vote in many precincts, crossing 80 percent in several Black precincts across the region. While Buttigieg performed well in many parts of rural Georgia - especially counties with smaller percentages of Black voters north of Atlanta and outside of southwest Georgia, his performance was notably weaker in and around Atlanta where he was virtually shutout. Warren failed to qualify for statewide delegates, and only won a handful of them in more liberal areas of Atlanta as well as in districts centered in Athens and Savannah.
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« Reply #170 on: June 01, 2022, 10:22:24 AM »

I guess Harris is basically the dem nominee. Will support, not enthusiastically
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #171 on: June 02, 2022, 09:42:20 AM »

It is now 9PM in New York City and 7PM in Phoenix. In both New York and Arizona - the only states to have not closed their polls yet, the polls have now indeed closed.

NEW YORK
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Democrats in the Empire State will allocate 219 pledged delegates tonight, including 142 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 54.53 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 26.72 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 16.67 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 2.08 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Southampton, Huntington & Riverhead (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/Brookhaven, Islip & Lindenhurst (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Oyster Bay, Mineola & Bayside (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD4/Hempstead, Long Beach & Cedarhurst (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/Jamaica, Belle Harbor & JFK (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Flushing, Fresh Meadows & Elmhurst (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Bushwick, Long Island City & Williamsburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Bedford-Stuyvesant, Coney Island & Canarsie (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Central Brooklyn, Crown Heights & Midwood (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD10/Lower Manhattan, Gowanus, Borough Park (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Staten Island, Dyker Heights & Bensonhurst (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD12/Midtown Manhattan, Central Park & Roosevelt Island (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD13/Harlem, Washington Heights & Fordham (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD14/Parkchester, Astoria & LaGuardia (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD15/The Bronx, Morrisania & Riverdale (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD16/White Plains, Mount Vernon & Yonkers (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD17/Chappaqua, Nyack & Carmel (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD18/Newburgh, Poughkeepsie & Middletown (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD19/Binghamton, Hudson & Ithaca (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD20/Albany, Troy & Saratoga Springs (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD21/Glens Falls, Cooperstown & Plattsburgh (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD22/Syracuse, Utica & Hamilton (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD23/Orchard Park, Elmira & Jamestown (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD24/Canandaigua, Lockport & Watertown (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD25/Rochester, Brockport & Fairport (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD26/Buffalo, Niagara Falls & Amherst (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (29 delegates):
Kamala Harris 16, Elizabeth Warren 8, Pete Buttigieg 5
At-Large Delegates (48 delegates):
Kamala Harris 27, Elizabeth Warren 13, Pete Buttigieg 8

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1623 delegates +141 from New York
Elizabeth Warren - 703 delegates +50 from New York
Pete Buttigieg - 391 delegates +28 from New York
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

The Empire State was the Vice President's oyster by far, with Harris winning a whopping 98 out of 142 congressional delegates (versus 29 for Warren and 15 for Buttigieg) along with 43 at-large delegates - more than double the statewide delegates won by Warren (21) and more than three times that of Buttigieg (13). Harris dominated New York City and surrounding suburbs from Long Island to Westchester, but otherwise was competitive with Buttigieg in Upstate New York while still winning every congressional district across the state. Warren's strongest performance in New York City was in the Bronx, where she was endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of all persons. However, Warren was virtually shut out in much of the Upstate from the Adirondacks to east of Buffalo, while Buttigieg was virtually nonexistent in the Tri-State, save for one pledged delegate won in the Lower Manhattan-based 10th that includes Greenwich Village - the historic heart of New York City's LGBT community. Across the nation, many networks begin to declare Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee, even though neither of her rivals have yet conceded nor has Harris reached the magic number of 1,885 pledged delegates.

NEW YORK
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

New York's GOP will award 91 delegates in tonight's primary, including 78 at the congressional level in one of the few states where Republicans have no other delegates besides the baseline ten at-large and three statewide party leader delegates. At the congressional level, the leading candidate will either win all three delegates with an absolute majority or being the only candidate with 20 percent of the vote, win two delegates in a situation where two or more candidates win 20 percent with the runner-up earning the other, or will be awarded delegates based on the party's conscience regardless of the results. At the statewide level, the 13 delegates are either awarded to the absolute majority winner or proportionally distributed to candidates receiving at least 20 percent statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 41.52 percent
Nikki Haley - 26.27 percent
Mike Pence - 22.05 percent
Ben Sasse - 5.91 percent
Candace Owens - 2.71 percent
(Remaining 1.54 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Southampton, Huntington & Riverhead (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Brookhaven, Islip & Lindenhurst (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Oyster Bay, Mineola & Bayside (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD4/Hempstead, Long Beach & Cedarhurst (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD5/Jamaica, Belle Harbor & JFK (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD6/Flushing, Fresh Meadows & Elmhurst (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD7/Bushwick, Long Island City & Williamsburg (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD8/Bedford-Stuyvesant, Coney Island & Canarsie (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD9/Central Brooklyn, Crown Heights & Midwood (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD10/Lower Manhattan, Gowanus, Borough Park (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD11/Staten Island, Dyker Heights & Bensonhurst (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD12/Midtown Manhattan, Central Park & Roosevelt Island (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD13/Harlem, Washington Heights & Fordham (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD14/Parkchester, Astoria & LaGuardia (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD15/The Bronx, Morrisania & Riverdale (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD16/White Plains, Mount Vernon & Yonkers (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD17/Chappaqua, Nyack & Carmel (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD18/Newburgh, Poughkeepsie & Middletown (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD19/Binghamton, Hudson & Ithaca (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD20/Albany, Troy & Saratoga Springs (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD21/Glens Falls, Cooperstown & Plattsburgh (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD22/Syracuse, Utica & Hamilton (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD23/Orchard Park, Elmira & Jamestown (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD24/Canandaigua, Lockport & Watertown (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD25/Rochester, Brockport & Fairport (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD26/Buffalo, Niagara Falls & Amherst (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (13 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 6, Nikki Haley 4, Mike Pence 3

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 749 delegates +57 from New York
Nikki Haley - 378 delegates +25 from New York
Mike Pence - 252 delegates +9 from New York
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

The combination of Donald Trump's endorsement and strong support from Italian-Americans (particularly in the New York metropolitan area) is enough for DeSantis to win a sizable victory in the Empire State, including absolute majorities in the two congressional districts primarily centered on Suffolk County - one of Trump's most salient areas during his presidential campaigns. In total, DeSantis won 23 of the state's 26 congressional districts, the only exceptions being two Brooklyn-based districts and one in the outer suburbs of New York City won by Haley, whose sizable support from Hasidic and Orthodox Jews (due to her outspoken support for Israel) enabled her to edge past DeSantis in those districts. However, Haley was virtually invisible in Upstate New York save for two Albany-area districts (including one represented by Elise Stefanik who endorsed Haley the previous week), while Pence romped throughout the Upstate from Buffalo to Syracuse, where he won up to 30 percent but still fell short of DeSantis in each upstate district where he placed second. Pence's weak performance in the Tri-State, however, sealed his third-place finish statewide with a piddling nine delegates to DeSantis's 57 and Haley's 25.

ARIZONA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Arizona Democrats will award 71 pledged delegates to qualifying candidates, including 46 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 50.26 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 25.15 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 13.93 percent
(Remaining 10.66 percent went to other candidates, including 6.41 for Jared Polis)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Phoenix (Camelback, Paradise Valley), Scottsdale & Carefree (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Flagstaff, Maricopa & Prescott (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD3/Phoenix (Central City, Maryvale & South Mountain) (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Phoenix (Ahwatukee), Mesa & Tempe (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD5/Gilbert, Apache Junction & San Tan Valley (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD6/Tucson (East), Sierra Vista & Casa Grande (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD7/Tucson (West), Yuma & Tolleson (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD8/Peoria, Sun City & Anthem (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD9/Lake Havasu City, Yuma & Litchfield Park (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Pete Buttigieg 3
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates):
Kamala Harris 11, Pete Buttigieg 5

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1671 delegates +48 from Arizona
Elizabeth Warren - 707 delegates +4 from Arizona
Pete Buttigieg - 410 delegates +19 from Arizona
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Arizona proved to be an easy win for Harris, as familiarity from her being from neighboring California, combined with the relatively center-left nature of Arizona's Democratic establishment, enabled her to barely win an absolute majority of the state's voters. Buttigieg, obviously benefiting from the dropping out of Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, managed to win a quarter of the overall votes with his strongest performance coming in more suburban and rural areas - the latter of which have long been fertile ground for moderately conservative "Pinto Democrats" over the years. Warren did not fare well in the Grand Canyon State, failing to qualify for statewide delegates with her most significant performances coming from White liberals and college students in Phoenix and in Tucson.

GEORGIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Republicans in Georgia will be allocating 60 delegates to candidates tonight, including 42 at the congressional level. Originally set for March 26th, this primary was moved up by one week to coincide with this Super Tuesday; delegates to the congressional district and state conventions are currently being elected in ongoing conventions across the state. The delegates will be awarded to the highest vote-getters at both the individual congressional and statewide levels.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 39.75 percent
Mike Pence - 25.96 percent
Nikki Haley - 19.81 percent
Ben Sasse - 6.71 percent
Candace Owens - 3.95 percent
(Remaining 3.82 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Savannah, Brunswick & Waycross (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Albany, Macon & Columbus (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Peachtree City, Carrollton & LaGrange (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Stone Mountain, Dunwoody & Covington (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD5/Atlanta, Decatur & Sandy Springs (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD6/Alpharetta, Blackwells & Cumming (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD7/Lawrenceville, Johns Creek & Lilburn (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD8/Valdosta, Milledgeville & Moultrie (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD9/Suwanee, Dahlonega & Toccoa (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD10/Athens, McDonough & Sparta (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD11/Marietta, Cartersville & Jasper (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD12/Augusta, Statesboro & Dublin (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD13/Riverdale, Douglasville & Stockbridge (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD14/Dalton, Rome & Powder Springs (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
Statewide, at-large (18 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 18

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 809 delegates +60 from Georgia
Nikki Haley - 378 delegates
Mike Pence - 252 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis turned in a thoroughly robust performance across the state, with his strongest totals coming in suburban Atlanta, where DeSantis won upwards of 40-50 percent of the vote, and coming out on top in every congressional district across the state. While Pence managed to be competitive in more rural parts of the state and benefited from the endorsement of Gov. Brian Kemp who had endorsed Pence last week, some rural Georgians had never forgiven Pence for his certification of the 2020 election in favor of President Biden, which undoubtedly hurt Pence's numbers in rural North and South Georgia (the latter area of which was already familiar with DeSantis from neighboring Florida). Haley had sizable support in more heavily Jewish and moderate enclaves in Atlanta, as well as in Augusta and Savannah, but otherwise her numbers largely tapered off the farther away one got from the Savannah River; her numbers in the South Georgia-centric 8th District, for instance, were well under 20 percent compared to over 40 percent for DeSantis and around 30 percent for Pence. DeSantis now has more delegates than uncontested ones, while Haley has been mathematically eliminated from reaching the magic number of 1,250 delegates.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #172 on: June 03, 2022, 02:00:47 AM »

It is now 10PM. Do you know where your children are?

ILLINOIS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

In one of the more unusual Republican primaries, Illinois Republicans will be allocating its 51 congressional delegates in a so-called "loophole primary" where Republican voters are voting for individual delegates in their districts, with the delegate's presidential preference or the word "Uncommitted" listed next to their name. The other 13 delegates, including the three party leaders, will be bound statewide to the top statewide vote-getter.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 36.86 percent
Mike Pence - 23.55 percent
Nikki Haley - 22.14 percent
Ben Sasse - 10.41 percent
Candace Owens - 2.18 percent
(Remaining 4.86 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
(Editor's note: The congressional delegates will be allocated based on a map redrawn by the courts in this TL.)
CD1/Chicago (Loop, Hyde Park, West Side) & Oak Park (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD2/Chicago (Bridgeport, South Side), Calumet City & Crete (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Chicago (O'Hare, Belmont Cragin), Schiller Park & Elgin (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Chicago (Midway, West Pullman), Burbank & Cicero (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD5/Chicago (North Park, Dunning), Rosemont & Schaumburg (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD6/Wheaton, Naperville & Addison (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD7/Orland Park, La Grange & Darien (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD8/McHenry, Palatine & Geneva (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD9/Chicago (Near North Side, Uptown), Evanston & Skokie (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD10/Waukegan, Northbrook & Lindenhurst (3 delegates):
Nikki Haley 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD11/Joliet, Kankakee & Bolingbrook (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD12/East St. Louis, Carbondale & Edwardsville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD13/Springfield, Champaign & Decatur (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD14/Aurora, Bloomington & Ottawa (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD15/Centralia, Danville & Carlinville (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD16/Rockford, Eureka & DeKalb (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD17/Peoria, Moline & Quincy (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
Statewide, at-large (13 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 13

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 860 delegates +51 from Illinois
Nikki Haley - 384 delegates +6 from Illinois
Mike Pence - 259 delegates +7 from Illinois
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 34 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis was the leading candidate statewide, with his strongest support coming in the Chicago suburbs including DuPage, Will, Kane and McHenry counties along with much of suburban Cook County, plus most Italian, Irish and Eastern European enclaves as well as most Latino and Black wards within Chicago itself. While Pence had his niche in downstate Illinois (particularly closer to the Indiana border) and Haley outperformed DeSantis in more moderate and Jewish areas of Chicagoland including Chicago's lakefront neighborhoods and the prominently Jewish North Shore suburbs from Wilmette and Northbrook to Lake County, the former's weaknesses in most of Chicagoland and Haley's downstate are enough to cancel each other out as DeSantis romped through the Land of Lincoln (and boyhood state of Ronald Reagan) with ease.

PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

As with Illinois, Republicans in Pennsylvania will also be selecting their delegates in a "loophole" primary, except in this primary the 51 congressional delegates are not explicitly tied to a particular presidential candidate, with several indicating that they will back the top vote-getter in their congressional district and others having already backed DeSantis. The other 17 delegates, including three party leaders and four bonus delegates earned due to Gov. Doug Mastriano and majorities in both houses of the state's legislature and its congressional delegation, will be allocated to the top vote-getter in the state's presidential preference primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 45.51 percent
Mike Pence - 26.15 percent
Nikki Haley - 19.51 percent
Ben Sasse - 4.94 percent
Candace Owens - 2.91 percent
(Remaining 0.98 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Bensalem, Doylestown & Franconia (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer CD winner
CD2/Philadelphia (Center City, Frankford & Northeast) (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer CD winner
CD3/Philadelphia (West Side, Roxborough & Pennsport) (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; 2 delegates prefer CD winner, 1 prefers Nikki Haley
CD4/Bala Cynwyd, Abington & Kutztown (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD5/Chester, King of Prussia & Philadelphia (South, Sports Complex) (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD6/West Chester, Reading & Valley Forge (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; 2 delegates prefer DeSantis, 1 prefers CD winner
CD7/Allentown, Bethlehem & Jim Thorpe (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD8/Scranton, Wilkes-Barre & Milford (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD9/Williamsport, Lebanon & Berwick (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD10/Harrisburg, York & Carlisle (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; 2 delegates prefer DeSantis; 1 prefers CD winner
CD11/Lancaster, Hanover & Lititz (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; 2 delegates prefer DeSantis; 1 is Uncommitted
CD12/Pittsburgh, Bethel Park & Irwin (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; 2 delegates prefer DeSantis; 1 prefers Nikki Haley
CD13/Johnstown, Gettysburg & Lewistown (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD14/Washington, Latrobe & Uniontown (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD15/State College, Bradford & Kittanning (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD16/Erie, New Castle & Butler (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
CD17/Mount Lebanon, Aliquippa & Penn Hills (3 delegates):
Won by Ron DeSantis; all delegates prefer DeSantis
Statewide, at-large (17 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 17

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 925 delegates +65 from Pennsylvania
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates +2 from Pennsylvania
Mike Pence - 259 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 35 delegates, including one from Pennsylvania, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

As with Pennsylvania, and fueled by both "hometown support" in western Pennsylvania (where his ancestors settled generations ago) and Gov. Doug Mastriano's endorsement, DeSantis also romped to victory in the Keystone State, and has effectively won all but three delegates amongst the state's officially unbound delegates. The only other delegates won were two for Haley in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and another who chose to remain uncommitted, as the delegates have begun to widely accept DeSantis as the GOP nominee. Despite outperforming Haley by nearly seven percent, Pence ends up walking away from Pennsylvania empty handed despite coming within single digits of DeSantis in parts of the "T".

OHIO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

78 delegates, including 45 at the congressional level, will be awarded tonight to the top vote-getter in tonight's Republican presidential primary. While there was talk of potentially divvying up the delegates based on congressional district and proportional results, among other possibilities, the state central Republican committee opted to keep the winner-take-all format. The top vote-getter's preapproved slate of delegates will serve as the delegates bound to the Republican National Convention.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 39.41 percent (78 delegates)
Mike Pence - 28.23 percent
Nikki Haley - 26.52 percent
Ben Sasse - 3.51 percent
Candace Owens - 1.46 percent
(Remaining 0.87 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1003 delegates +78 from Ohio
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 259 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 35 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Despite a last-minute push by Pence to gain support from blue-collar and moderate voters across the state, DeSantis ultimately ends up winning the Buckeye State on the strength of his strong performance in much of northeast Ohio (where DeSantis polled over 40 percent of the vote in a region where some of his family tree had ancestral roots), as well as an endorsement from freshman Sen. J.D. Vance. While Pence managed to run competitively in western Ohio from Toledo to Cincinnati (adjacent to Indiana including parts of his former congressional district now represented by his brother) and Haley also had her niche in some suburban areas around the 3 C's (Cincinnati, Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus), they are no match for DeSantis's sizable performance in the aforementioned northeast corner of the state (as well as in such pure-play suburban counties as Columbus's Delaware and Cincinnati's Butler. Even a last-minute endorsement from former Speaker John Boehner, who represented the latter suburban county during his generation-long service as their Congressman, did not improve Pence's fortunes which have now completely faded away as DeSantis is now being viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee by virtually every national news organization.

OHIO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Ohio's 127 pledged Democratic delegates will be awarded in tonight's primary, including 82 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 35.62 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 32.45 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 26.76 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 5.17 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Cincinnati. Harrison & Blue Ash (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Newtown, Hillsboro & Portsmouth (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Dayton, Beavercreek & Middletown (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/West Chester, Troy & Lima (3 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Toledo, Bowling Green & Defiance (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Upper Arlington, Lancaster & Springfield (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Columbus (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD8/Dublin, Bellefontaine & Mansfield (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD9/Lorain, Findlay & Wooster (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD10/Parma, Elyria & Medina (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD11/Cleveland, Lakewood & Shaker Heights (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD12/Athens, Zanesville & Gahanna (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD13/Youngstown, Steubenville & Dover (4 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Kamala Harris 1
CD14/Mentor, Warren & Solon (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1
CD15/Akron, Canton & Cuyahoga Falls (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (17 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Pete Buttigieg 6, Elizabeth Warren 5
At-Large Delegates (28 delegates):
Kamala Harris 10, Pete Buttigieg 10, Elizabeth Warren 8

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1718 delegates +47 from Ohio
Elizabeth Warren - 747 delegates +40 from Ohio
Pete Buttigieg - 450 delegates +40 from Ohio
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Ohio proved to be one of the more challenging battlegrounds for the Democrats as Harris eked out a narrow win over Buttigieg on the strength of her strong performance within the 3 C's (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus) as well as the surrounding suburbs. Buttigieg performed a strong second in many parts of the state in addition to also winning many areas between Dayton and Toledo that border Indiana, but otherwise underperformed in the state capital of Columbus. Warren mostly underperformed across much of the state, but notably had her stronghold in Northeast Ohio where she benefited from both strong support in college towns such as Kent and Athens in southeast Ohio, as well as in industrial cities like Akron and Youngstown where Harris's appeal was the worst except in Cleveland, which anchors a plurality Black congressional district; Warren ended up placing ahead of Buttigieg in congressional delegates - 27 to 24, though still trailing Harris's 31. Despite Harris's narrow win here, the fact that Ohio was deeply divided and turned out to be a weak spot for Harris (especially in more industrial parts of the state) draws some doubts on whether or not Harris can make amends with working-class "pivot voters" who were crucial to Donald Trump's 2016 victory.

INDIANA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Tonight, Indiana Democrats will allocate 67 pledged delegates to candidates who qualify, including 44 at the congressional level.

Results of Primary:
Pete Buttigieg - 40.81 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 34.54 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 19.85 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 4.80 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Gary, LaPorte & Valparaiso (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Pete Buttigieg 3
CD2/South Bend, Elkhart & Wabash (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1
CD3/Fort Wayne, LaGrange & Winchester (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1
CD4/Lafayette, Rensselaer & Plainfield (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Noblesville, Muncie & Kokomo (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Richmond, Greenwood & Columbus (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1
CD7/Indianapolis (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD8/Evansville, Terre Haute & Vincennes (4 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1
CD9/New Albany, Bloomington & Lawrenceburg (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (9 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 4, Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2
At-Large Delegates (14 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 6, Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)

Kamala Harris - 1742 delegates +24 from Indiana
Elizabeth Warren - 756 delegates +9 from Indiana
Pete Buttigieg - 484 delegates +34 from Indiana
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

If there was any state where Buttigieg was going to do well, it was going to be Indiana. And indeed he did, but not in the sort of blowout his supporters expected, as Buttigieg won just over 40 percent of the vote and 34 delegates, compared to over one-third and 25 delegates for Harris and under 20 percent and 8 delegates for Warren. Buttigieg won six of the Hoosier State's nine congressional districts, only losing the Indianapolis-based 7th, north suburban Indianapolis-based 5th and the 1st in "The Region" of northwest Indiana - which were all won by Harris. Warren barely registered statewide, winning most of her support in central Indianapolis and such college towns as Muncie (Ball State), Lafayette (Purdue) and of course Bloomington (IU). While Buttigieg's presidential campaign is essentially dead, at least the Hoosiers who voted for him can take pride in having won their state for "Mayor Pete".
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« Reply #173 on: June 03, 2022, 04:42:03 AM »

Looks like we're heading for a DeSantis beats Harris 2024 scenario.
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SaintStan86
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« Reply #174 on: June 03, 2022, 03:12:38 PM »

UPDATE: So busy between real-life matters and getting through these "Super Tuesdays" that I forgot to mention that most of what I predicted has pretty much transpired IRL, and this TL will be updated accordingly to reflect the latest moves.

In Alabama, Kay Ivey cleared the runoff bar and will prevail over a Democratic candidate that will emerge out of a runoff. The Senate is a much different story, but I'm going to bet on Mo Brooks consolidating his support against the more establishmentarian Katie Britt in this TL and slightly winning his runoff before crushing Will Boyd in the general election. And as I predicted in this TL, Brooks' successor will likely be fellow Republican Dale Strong in the 5th who nearby doubled his nearest opponent and is a strong favorite in his runoff.

In Arkansas, expect Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be in the Governor's Mansion and John Boozman will get his third term in the Senate, but Rep. French Hill could have a fierce primary challenge in the Little Rock-based 2nd in 2024; his primary challenger Conrad Reynolds crossed 40 percent last week and is now alleging voter fraud in his primary, while Boozman's leading challenger this year in former NFL player-turned-Army officer Jake Bequette also has to be an intriguing possibility here as well. This is not to say that Hill is not a bad representative, but in this TL the knives will be out again.

The big one that mattered of course was Georgia, and not only did Gov. Brian Kemp smoke David Perdue in his primary, but Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger also avoided a runoff in his race as well (unlike the Democrats in his case). In this TL, both men will be reelected and will be joined by freshman U.S. Sen. Herschel Walker. I will continue to say that Sanford Bishop will lose his seat in a shocker to the winner of the GOP runoff in the 2nd (either Jeremy Hunt or Chris West), that Rich McCormick will be repping the 6th District, and I'm still betting on Mike Collins beating Vernon Jones and repping the 10th in this TL. Marjorie Taylor Greene will still be in the 14th as expected, but her primary competition appears to be stronger in this TL and there may still be a hidden surprise that could make the race very interesting.

As for Texas, now that the runoffs have concluded, I can say that Ken Paxton will prevail in this TL in a bad year for Democrats after having easily fended off George P. Bush in his runoff last week, Monica De La Cruz will beat progressive Michelle Vallejo in the 15th, and while the results don't appear to be final in the 28th, if Henry Cuellar is in fact the Dem nominee, that fact will be irrelevant as he will have either retired or lost to Cassy Garcia (who at least in this TL will be in a runoff where I can now say Cuellar narrowly wins his seat but will have called his new term his last, with his progressive foe Jessica Cisneros as the Dem nominee so far and Garcia now replacing one of the two projected Rs in this TL). There are also two local races I shall mention, and in this TL the Republican nominees for County Judge in Harris and Fort Bend counties, Alexandra del Moral Mealer in the former and Trever Nehls in the latter, will have won their respective general election battles and will have played a behind-the-scenes role in bolstering GOP nominees for Senate and other races in this TL.

Lastly, Minnesota's 1st District has its special election set, and in this TL former state USDA Director Brad Finstad will have defeated former Hormel Foods CEO Jeff Ettinger in both the special and eventual general election, as I project IRL. This coming from someone who actually enjoys their Applegate uncured pepperoni on his pizza and has bought many a Hormel product over the years...

Now, back to the TL, where it is now 11PM on the Atlantic seaboard, and the last of the Republican results for the night are being called...


INDIANA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Hoosier Republicans will award 58 delegates - 27 at the congressional level - to the winners of the presidential primary vote in each of the state's nine congressional districts as well as statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Mike Pence - 39.51 percent
Ron DeSantis - 26.85 percent
Nikki Haley - 21.69 percent
Ben Sasse - 5.30 percent
Candace Owens - 2.17 percent
(Remaining 4.48 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Gary, LaPorte & Valparaiso (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD2/South Bend, Elkhart & Wabash (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD3/Fort Wayne, LaGrange & Winchester (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD4/Lafayette, Rensselaer & Plainfield (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD5/Noblesville, Muncie & Kokomo (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD6/Richmond, Greenwood & Columbus (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD7/Indianapolis (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD8/Evansville, Terre Haute & Vincennes (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
CD9/New Albany, Bloomington & Lawrenceburg (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 3
Statewide, at-large (31 delegates):
Mike Pence 31

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1003 delegates
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates +58 from Indiana
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 35 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

To no great surprise, Pence turned in his strongest performance in his own home state, winning at least 30 percent in every congressional district across the state and nearly 40 percent overall. DeSantis managed to score well with conservatives across the state, but not enough to overtake Pence, with Haley even further behind - just under 25 percent in most of the suburbs surrounding Indianapolis and in Fort Wayne, while otherwise underperforming in much of the rural remainder. While certainly out of the presidential contest, Pence's supporters at least could say that they won their home state for him.

ARIZONA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Arizona Republicans will award 42 delegates, including 27 at the congressional level, in a state considered one of the most crucial and arguably one of the sorest spots for Trumpworld. The top vote-getter statewide will win all delegates in this winner-take-all primary, with delegates to be decided beginning the following Saturday, March 23rd in some counties and then proceeding through April 13th for a total of four consecutive Saturdays.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 34.95 percent (42 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 28.98 percent
Mike Pence - 18.62 percent
Ben Sasse - 9.51 percent
Candace Owens - 3.58 percent
(Remaining 4.36 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1045 delegates +42 from Arizona
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 42 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 35 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Haley hoped to make Arizona her Little Bighorn on this particular Super Tuesday, making a multitude of stops to the Grand Canyon State and even earning support from the daughter of late favorite son and U.S. Sen. John McCain. Instead, it turned out to be her Waterloo as Haley came up short against DeSantis, whose narrow victory in populous Maricopa County - home to Phoenix and almost all of its surrounding suburbs - sealed her fate despite her narrow win in Tucson's Pima County. Pence was hardly even a factor, as he only managed to cross 25 percent in mostly rural counties around the state, while Sasse managed to earn nearly 10 percent of the vote on the basis of his sizable support from some LDS voters as well as more traditional Republicans around the Valley who generally never identified with Donald Trump (and in some circles, viewed DeSantis as more of a "liability" in comparison to Haley). In particular, DeSantis performed very strongly amongst GOP primary voters who also backed Kari Lake for Governor and Blake Masters for U.S. Senate in 2022, whereas most of Haley's support came from GOP primary voters who didn't back either one in that year's midterm GOP primary.

With tonight's Super Tuesday now in the books, while neither candidate has crossed the magic number in their respective partisan primaries, it is now official: the presumptive Democratic nominee will be Vice President Kamala Harris and the presumptive Republican nominee will be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

March 19, 2024
HARRIS EARNS DEMOCRATIC NOD AS RIVALS FADE INTO HISTORY
On Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris all but officially became the presumptive Democratic nominee for President as the former California Attorney General-turned-U.S. Senator turned in a slew of victories across seven of eight states. Harris carried Florida, Georgia, Arizona and New York in convincing fashion, while also scoring hard-fought wins in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio while also coming up short in Indiana, albeit finishing a strong second there to favorite son and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Speaking before an enthusiastic audience at the Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Harris declared "Tonight, I am honored to announce that we have a golden opportunity to make history, thanks to our wins tonight, and transform this country into one that truly stands for the people. I am honored to be the lone Democrat standing in this race, and as your presumptive nominee we are going to do great things in these next several months to get to the mountaintop, where victory awaits!".

Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren formally ended her campaign on Tuesday night during her rally in downtown Cleveland. "After much consideration and months of vigorous campaign across this great nation, I called tonight to congratulate Vice President Harris on being the presumptive Democratic nominee", Warren said to the overflow audience at the Wolstein Center on the campus of Cleveland State University. She also implored the audience to "not feel destitute and stand strong in the fight for an America that works for everyone", urging the crowd to "get behind Kamala Harris and stand up to the Republican political machine of corporations, cowards and colluders who will do everything they can to silence us...Don't let them". While the Vice President has amassed 1,742 pledged delegates and dozens (if not hundreds) of automatic delegates already committed to her, Warren won a comparatively smaller 756 pledged delegates and her own slate of progressive automatic delegates - including all of the progressive "Squad" currently serving in Congress as well as leading progressive commentators such as Ana Kasparian and Rachel Maddow.

Also bowing out on Tuesday night was Buttigieg, who conceded his race at the Joyce Center on the campus of the University of Notre Dame on Tuesday night; both men's and women's basketball teams were en route outside of South Bend to participate in March Madness with the men's team en route to Pittsburgh and the women's team headed to Norman, Oklahoma for their first round games. On stage introducing Buttigieg was none other than David Letterman, "Tonight is about a little boy from South Bend who dreamt and dreamt big, who rose to serve in the Navy, serve his community, and serve President Biden. And the best part about remembering him is that he's still standing here tonight...Pete Buttigieg is my friend, and we shall all celebrate all he has accomplished in this election!" After taking the stage, Buttigieg - donning a sweater and collared shirt - thanked the audience for the "camaraderie and support y'all have given me, and Chasten and I are grateful for the opportunity to try to become the most proud couple ever to live in the White House". Buttigieg then congratulated Harris and urged the audience to "get behind Kamala and not let Ron DeSantis tell you not to say the 'G' word". Buttigieg won 484 pledged delegates, but struggled to gain traction as he also had to deal with a splintered moderate vote between himself and four other minor candidates, as Harris dominated amongst African Americans and Warren became the choice candidate of economic progressives.

Not everyone was on board with Harris by the end of Tuesday night, with progressive commentator Kyle Kulinski condemning Harris as "yet another corporate Democrat sellout who will further sell out our country to Republicans", while Ana Kasparian expressed exacerbation about voting for Harris, "By all means, we must vote for Kamala Harris, but I honestly don't see her being any different than Hillary Clinton...and we all know how dreadful she was as a candidate, paving the way for the monster that beat her (referring to Donald Trump)". However, President Biden tweeted his support and congratulations for his Vice President, "@KamalaHarris will continue the amazing progress we have had leading our country, and she is going to blaze new trails for millions of young girls not only here in America, but around the world as well", while the Democratic National Committee also tweeted "We look forward to seeing everyone in Milwaukee this August at @DNC2024 as we nominate @KamalaHarris to become our first Madam President!".

March 19, 2024
DeSANTIS NOW PRESUMPTIVE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE AS HALEY, PENCE BOW OUT
On Tuesday night, without actually clinching the magic number of 1,250 delegates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis celebrated before a jubilant crowd at the Amway Center in Orlando, home of the NBA's Orlando Magic, as he was officially declared to be the presumptive Republican nominee. "Tonight, I am grateful for the wins we have experienced together, but even more grateful now to become your presumptive Republican nominee for President of these great United States of America!", DeSantis declared to a capacity crowd at the arena that later erupted in cheers when former President Donald Trump made a surprise appearance. On stage Trump proclaimed, "Ron DeSantis will never let you down as President. He will stand up to those who want to tear down our beautiful border wall, tear down our police and our military, tear up our Constitution - what a horrible thing to do. And Kamala Harris? What a sad sack of a candidate...If the former Mayor of San Francisco isn't feeling so warm about her, then who really does? I really do feel sorry for Joe Biden. I really do."

Meanwhile, former Ambassador Nikki Haley concluded her campaign on Tuesday night at Gas South Arena in Duluth, Georgia, outside Atlanta. "After lots of prayerful consideration, the voters have spoken, and tonight I just called to concede to Gov. DeSantis and congratulate him on becoming our presumptive Republican nominee for President...But this is not the end, because the forward motion we have undertaken in the last several months is going forward and I encourage all my supporters to get behind Ron DeSantis, because the last thing we need as a country is to see it fall to the most incompetent and unfit Vice President in the history of America", said Haley in referring to Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Harris. Haley then concluded, "God Bless America and her people, and may we all continue to Stand for America".

Former Vice President Mike Pence also ended his campaign on Tuesday night at Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University, whose men's basketball team was already en route to Spokane, Washington for March Madness on Tuesday night. "Tonight, the voters of Indiana and seven other states have spoken, along with many others, and tonight I called to concede to and congratulate our presumptive Republican nominee, Ron DeSantis, and also had a great conversation tonight with Donald Trump who is with him in Orlando as I speak. Ron DeSantis is the greatest Governor in America, and he is going to be a phenomenal President who will restore the great progress Donald Trump and I made in those magical four years - progress that Joe Biden has destroyed and which stands to further be destroyed by Kamala Harris. While I had no intention to give a concession speech tonight, the will of the American people must be respected, and for that I give Ron DeSantis my congratulations and support as we work to take our country back!"

In addition to issuing his support for DeSantis, Pence also thanked the audience for their support of him over the years, "Karen and I are thankful for the years of support you have given us here in Indiana, and we could not be more proud to be Hoosiers than tonight on this stage, on this most magical of stages anywhere in the Crossroads of America, where bold dreams are born into reality" while also taking paraphrases from quotes in the movie Hoosiers, "We put our effort and concentration into campaigning to our potential, never cared what the scoreboard said, and ran our competiton to the picket fences. So while I may not be your Republican nominee, we have been the winners throughout, and for that I thank y'all from the bottom of my heart". Pence finished third overall with 317 delegates, compared to 1,045 for DeSantis and 386 for Haley.

Two other Republicans who have been mathematically eliminated have not yet conceded their campaigns. Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who was at St. Bonaventure University in upstate New York on Tuesday, said that he intends to continue campaigning on such issues as the national debt, the future of American education and "American leadership in the world" even though at just 42 delegates his campaign is essentially moribund at this point, while Candace Owens (despite winning only five delegates) also intends to continue her campaign to "bring awareness to the rising concerns of minority conservatives who have felt left out in the cold for too long" and to "continue to give an alternative to the established Republican voices who think they're ready to measure the drapes and head straight to the White House" despite exhortations from other commentators for Owens to step aside. "Love you Candace, but honestly it's time to get behind Ron DeSantis and focusing on beating Kamala Harris before it's too late to save our country", said Ben Shapiro during a live broadcast on his YouTube channel late in the evening. Indeed, before the sun was up in New York City on early Wednesday morning, Republicans in American Samoa and Guam weren't waiting, as their officially unbound territorial delegates issued a joint statement joining their colleagues in the Northern Mariana Islands in declaring their support for DeSantis, bringing his official total to 1,063 delegates.

Editor's note: The rest of the state and territorial results will still be reported in the same manner as the others, but the focus will now turn to the Senate, important House races and some other crumbs worth mentioning...Stay tuned!
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