2024 - A Blank Canvas

[SaintStan86]

MAJOR UPDATE: I am proceeding forward with this timeline as we enter the debate stage, but I would like everyone to know that the segments mentioning Stephen Breyer's vacancy have been crossed out as Breyer has decided to retire as of today. I am still predicting that Ketanji Brown Jackson will be Biden's nominee to replace Breyer, and I also project that Lindsey Graham and a few other Senators will have voted to confirm Jackson alongside the Democrats (stirring criticism on Fox News), but I am not going to elaborate on SCOTUS in this timeline going forward since the vacancy is for a liberal justice to be replaced by another liberal because the sitting President is a Democrat. If the debates are still ongoing, and they probably won't be by the time the new justice is sworn in, I will work the SCOTUS votes in (Cotton, Cruz and Sasse all sit on the Judiciary Committee, and Rubio is also running as well), even though given conservatives do have their basic 6-3 majority on the high court, SCOTUS won't even be as significant a topic compared to some of the others.

[SaintStan86]

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines...with all the potential candidates on both parties likely set in stone, it's debate time!

August 10, 2023
REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS SET DEBATES FOR 2024
With the fields of both parties now largely set in stone, the two major parties announced their official debate schedules on Thursday.

The Republican National Committee announced that it will sanction 16 debates for its candidates, with Fox announced as the host for four debates across its corporate platforms, including the first debate from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh on August 22nd - one year to the day the GOP nominee will be set to accept the nomination at the Republican National Convention on the (albeit covered) home ice of the NHL's Pittsburgh Penguins. Fox News anchor Bret Baier will preside as the lead moderator over the first debate with other Fox News personalities joining him. Fox has stated that it will not include a second "kids' table debate" of lesser-polling candidates, as Fox executives felt "the field as it stands is sufficient enough to accommodate everyone on stage who qualifies to be there".

In addition to the first debate, which will also be simulcast on the Fox network, Fox will also preside over three other debates - all to be simulcasted on its Fox Nation streaming service, with one to air exclusively on Fox News and another exclusively on Fox Business. Among the other networks:

• NBC will host three debates across its platforms, including one exclusive to CNBC and all involving Telemundo. Unsurprisingly, none of the debates will air on MSNBC for obvious reasons. Hugh Hewitt will preside on the panel for the NBC debates, while CNBC's will be held under heavy scrutiny after its infamous 2016 debate (which was sharply criticized by candidates and observers alike) resulted in NBC News being stripped of its responsibilities for what would have been its lone 2016 debate in Houston. José Díaz-Balart, who is the brother of longtime GOP Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart of Florida and anchors both the Saturday edition of NBC Nightly News and a morning program on MSNBC (as well as being the former weeknight anchor of Noticias Telemundo), will serve as a moderator for all three debates.
• CNN will host two debates, including the upcoming second debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California (outside Los Angeles) in September. Both will be conducted in conjunction with Salem Media, with Salem radio hosts Dennis Prager and Sebastian Gorka - both popular figures within Trumpian and conservative circles - serving on CNN's panel in separate debates. Both are not without controversy given their passionate defense of the Trump administration and staunch opposition to "cancel culture". However, given the fact that most of CNN's Republican or conservative-leaning analysts were Trump-skeptical to various degrees during Trump's administration, the network reportedly turned to its conservative media partner Salem to supply the liberal-leaning network with brand-name conservatives trusted by Trumpian and conservative voters so as to provide "a fair debate for conservatives who otherwise may be skeptical about watching a CNN debate".
• CBS will also host two debates, including its traditional debate the Saturday before the South Carolina primary as well as another, youth-focused debate to be produced by MTV (and simulcast on CBS). Former Trump Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, who serves as a Republican analyst for the network, will serve as a moderator for both debates. Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford will also serve as a moderator for the South Carolina debate, while Meghan McCain (former co-host on The View and husband to the publisher of The Federalist, Ben Domenech) will serve as a moderator on the MTV debate. Margaret Brennan, host of CBS's Face the Nation, will serve as lead moderator for both debates.
• ABC and Univision will host two debates, including the traditional early Saturday evening debate before the New Hampshire primary. The New Hampshire debate will be lead moderated by ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir, while the other debate will be lead moderated by Univision's Noticiero Univision anchor Jorge Ramos. The selection of Ramos is also not without controversy given his aggressive questioning of Donald Trump in the latter's 2016 presidential run. With ABC News contributor Chris Christie in the presidential field, ABC intends to use alternative conservative commentators in his place.
• PBS will host a Republican debate for the first time in recent memory, with the New York Times' resident conservative commentator David Brooks serving as a moderator. Veteran Washington correspondent and PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff will also serve as a moderator.
• Newsmax will host its first ever debate, with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer and former Fox and Friends co-host Greg Kelly (who is now a Newsmax anchor) serving as moderators. In addition to streaming on its website in addition to Newsmax TV, the debate will also be simulcast on stations owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group (including the ABC affiliate in Washington, D.C., WJLA), which has long been the subject of criticism over perceptions of its news coverage being biased towards conservative viewpoints.
• Also hosting their first debate will be Nexstar Media Group, which becomes the first independent broadcaster to ever host a presidential debate (Sinclair is merely syndicating the Newsmax debate), with the debate also being syndicated to most stations owned by the E.W. Scripps Company and Hearst Television. The debate, scheduled to take place in Chicago at the landmark Chicago Theatre along with a subsequent debate for the Democratic candidates, will be broadcast on NewsNation (the former WGN-TV superstation feed) and dozens of Nexstar, Scripps and Hearst stations across the country, and will feature former NBC News and CNN anchor Soledad O'Brien (who produces a public affairs program for Hearst) and a member of the editorial board for the Chicago Tribune among the moderators.

In addition to the 16 debates, the RNC has indicated that if the primary continues to drag on beyond Super Tuesday, additional debates may be scheduled depending on how close the election remains going into June (when the last primaries in California and a few other states take place). The RNC has also announced it will require all of its presidential candidates to sign a pledge forbidding them from taking part in non-sanctioned Republican debates, perhaps to prevent groups that were opposed to former President Donald Trump (such as the Lincoln Project or Republican Accountability Project) from attempting to influence the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process. This is not unprecedented, as in response to Trump's candidacy in 2016 and perceived threats to pursue a third-party candidacy at the time, the RNC had previously called on its candidates to sign a pledge to support the Republican nominee (which turned out to be Trump).

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee announced it will sanction 12 debates for its candidates - seven of which are already known to national audiences, with the first debate to take place on August 29th from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, site of the 2024 Democratic National Convention (and which would have hosted the 2020 convention if not for COVID). CNN will host the debate, one of three scheduled to be hosted by the liberal-leaning network, with Anderson Cooper serving as the moderator for the first debate. Among the other networks:

• NBC will also host three debates, one exclusive to NBC, another exclusive to MSNBC, and a third to be simulcast on both networks with NBC as the primary channel. In somewhat of a surprise, CNBC will not host any of the debates as the business news network is effectively more conservative and business-friendly (albeit not necessarily conservative itself at least in comparison to rival Fox Business) than its parent network and especially the liberal-oriented MSNBC.
• CBS will host two debates, with its South Carolina debate (hosted in conjunction with the Congressional Black Caucus) to be primarily broadcast on BET. Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan will also serve as a moderator for these debates, with CBS Mornings host Gayle King expected to take part in at least the BET South Carolina Democratic debate, which will focus on issues of importance to African-Americans.
• ABC will primarily host two debates in conjunction with Univision (including one hosted by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus), with ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir and Univision Noticiero Univision anchor Jorge Ramos also alternating for these debates. Good Morning America and This Week host George Stephanopoulos (who will not appear in the Republican debates given his past history with the Democrats and Bill Clinton) will also serve as a moderator.
• PBS will host a Democratic debate as well, with PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff also serving as a moderator for this debate alongside liberal Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart.
• The aforementioned Nexstar Media Group and its cable channel NewsNation will also be hosting its first Democratic debate, also set to take place in Chicago at the legendary Chicago Theatre (and broadcast on NewsNation and simulcast on stations owned by Nexstar, Scripps and Hearst), with one key difference from the Republican debate earlier in the week being that there will be a columnist from the Chicago Sun-Times in lieu of the Chicago Tribune columnist. Soledad O'Brien, who produces and hosts a public affairs program for Hearst, will also serve as a moderator in this debate.

As is the case with the Republicans, the DNC also indicated the possibility of additional debates should the primary remain unsettled after Super Tuesday. To no great surprise, Fox News Channel is not expected to host any debates given its conservative bent, even though the DNC has not ruled out hosting debates on the network later in the primary.

[deluxedriver]

Have the Republicans decided to pull out of presidential debates like some people project?

[SaintStan86]

Have the Republicans decided to pull out of presidential debates like some people project?

You're probably thinking about the general election debates, where the RNC has requested (among other things) holding the first debate before early voting, requiring moderators to be unbiased (which wasn't the case with one of the potential moderators in 2020, Steve Scully), etc. The primary debates are a completely different story, and more than likely will increase or decrease depending on how many and who the candidates are in the primaries. Since Trump and Biden are not running in this TL, the numbers have increased.

[SaintStan86]

August 15, 2023
FOX NEWS ANNOUNCES DEBATE FIELD FOR FIRST GOP DEBATE
On Tuesday, Fox News announced the debate field for the first Republican presidential debate on August 22nd in Pittsburgh, with all candidates who have polled at least 1 percent or higher on average in at least three polls being invited to participate in the RNC debate. Only the candidacies of those who have already declared for the Presidency will be considered. Based on an aggregate average of five select recent polls, the order for the first debate is as follows:

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE AUGUST 22ND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (Fox News @ Pittsburgh, PA)
Candidate	Avg. (8/15)	Poll A (8/14)	Poll B (8/8)	Poll C (8/3)	Poll D (7/31)	Poll E (7/26)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	18.6	17	15	25	20	16
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	18.2	15	20	17	18	21
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	14.6	17	16	14	14	12
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	13.8	14	13	16	12	14
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	4.0	4	5	3	3	5
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.8	5	3	4	4	3
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	3.8	4	4	5	3	3
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.6	4	2	4	3	5
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	1.8	1	2	2	3	1
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	1.6	1	3	1	1	2
NOT PARTICIPATING
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) - below 1%	0.8	1	1	0	0	2
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS) - insufficient polling	N/A	6	3	N/A	N/A	N/A

As expected, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence lead the pack and will be situated front and center on the debate stage at PPG Paints Arena, with Nikki Haley and Ted Cruz the only others to poll above 5 percent. The order on the stage will situate Candace Owens to the very left of the stage, followed by Sen. Ben Sasse, Sen. Marco Rubio, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, DeSantis, Pence, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Gov. Larry Hogan, former Gov. Chris Christie and Mike Lindell at the very right.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tom Cotton will not be appearing in the debate due to the former only having two polls since entering the race earlier this month and the latter not polling above 1 percent on average, leaving Rubio as the only alternative amongst more hawkish foreign policy candidates to Haley, who has attracted the most support among those whose views on foreign policy are considered "more active and hawkish, comparable to George W. Bush" as well as those who "strongly support Israel". Pompeo makes light of the news, pointing that he is "more focused on building his campaign team this month" and (as indicated by the two polls he does have) "looks forward to seeing everyone in next month's debate", while Cotton notes that he is "focused on building familiarity with voters and highlighting his support for Trump as a Senator, something that one of my key opponents is going to be questioned about" and will be hosting a town hall meeting in Davenport the Friday after the debate that will be live-streamed on his website.

The five polls selected for the debate by Fox News do not include the results for the Iowa State Fair Straw Poll that concluded on Sunday at the Iowa State Fair. In the poll, former Vice President Pence won the straw poll with 23 percent, followed by former Ambassador Haley at 15 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz at 13 percent. The big surprise on the poll is Sen. Ben Sasse from neighboring Nebraska, who polls at 11 percent with most of his support coming from straw poll voters west of Des Moines (which mostly lie in the Omaha and Sioux City markets where he and other Nebraska politicians are regularly on the news). Gov. DeSantis (10 percent), businessman Mike Lindell (6 percent) and former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (5 percent) are the only other candidates to poll above 5 percent.

In reacting to the news, Pence thanked his supporters for "making me the number one choice among Iowa voters at the Iowa State Fair", while also expressing surprise at Sasse's strong numbers, remarking "Once voters see the difference between my strong commitment to the conservative values that Iowans hold dear and compare my strong record of working with and supporting President Trump to the intransigence and disloyalty that Sen. Sasse has shown, his supporters will change their tune real quick." Gov. DeSantis also expressed surprise at Sasse's strong numbers, remarking "We need a loyal foot soldier, not a grandstander who hasn't sent one bill to the White House." Sasse takes the numbers in stride, noting "The fact that voters at the Iowa State Fair saw through the noise and voted for me is proof that voters want to move forward with a real conservative - independent of echo chambers and forgettable nostalgia - who will stand strong and not waste time on silly popularity contests."

[SaintStan86]

There is not an empty seat inside PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, where one year from tonight the Republican presidential nominee will be giving his or her speech to accept the Republican nomination for President. Fox News anchor Bret Baier is joined by fellow anchor Shannon Bream and primetime host Tucker Carlson as moderators for the debate, which has plenty of fireworks but also insightful debate on both the issues that matter to the voters as well as key differences between the candidates that are set to define the GOP primary. After nearly four hours of vigorous debate, the debate - one of the most watched cable broadcasts in American history - concludes without a hitch, but not without old and new wounds being fired and plenty of ammunition for outside critics to utilize.

August 22, 2023
REPUBLICANS FACE OFF IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE OF 2024
In front a packed audience at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, 10 of the 12 Republican presidential candidates (Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton did not participate) faced off in the first debate of the 2024 election, moderated by Fox News anchor Bret Baier and broadcast on the conservative-leaning news network to the largest audience since 2016 of any non-sports cable program. Set on the stage where one year from today the GOP's presidential nominee will stand to accept the party's nomination to succeed President Biden as the 47th President of the United States, Republicans faced off for the first time against each other, and the debate was anything but a picnic.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its lingering aftereffects on the nation was a central point of contention between Ron DeSantis and Larry Hogan, both of whom were still serving as Governors when the pandemic was active. DeSantis defended his response to the pandemic, citing "Under my watch, Florida became a beacon of freedom when other states chose to overreact to the virus, and in some cases their economies never fully recovered," leading to criticism from Hogan who attacked DeSantis as "a viral arsonist who let the virus spread like wildfire instead of teaching his fellow man to show compassion for those who weren't blessed with the best of health". DeSantis retorted by pointing to the mediocre state of Maryland's economy under Hogan, as well as the fact that Hogan enjoyed higher approval ratings from Democrats at the end of his term than from his fellow Republicans.

Another point of contention, brought up by Fox News host Tucker Carlson, concerned the role of the military under a future Republican administration as far as foreign wars are concerned. When asked by Carlson if her foreign policy strategy amounts to a return to the George W. Bush days of "empire building" and "forever wars", Nikki Haley responded by saying, "Of course we don't want a return to the dark days of soldiers coming home dead over someone else's civil war that many Americans don't want our soldiers fighting in, but it's just as important to defend our allies in Israel and the Middle East, especially after the way Joe Biden abandoned our allies in Afghanistan while Russia proceeded to threaten our allies in Europe," with the relatively noninterventionist Carlson left with an unimpressed smirk. DeSantis responded by pointing out, "As a veteran and former JAG officer, the last thing we need to be doing is wasting all our precious military resources, some of them totaling billions of dollars left behind in the hands of the Taliban, fighting in another pointless war that our current President and his predecessors were all too eager to embrace".

Meanwhile, Shannon Bream, who is also a lawyer and Fox News' chief legal analyst in addition to being the host of Fox News @ Night, puts Mike Lindell on the hot seat with regards to the 2020 election which Lindell continues to claim is fraudulent. In response, Lindell remarks "as your President, I will increase the penalties for Americans who knowingly cheat at the ballot box and ensure that what happened to Donald Trump never happens again, because rightfully we should be succeeding him now instead of succeeding an illegitimate President who isn't duly elected". Nikki Haley responds to Lindell by stating, "There is no doubt that this election was very questionable, but there is one thing Joe Biden is not and that is an illegitimate President...if Trump worked a little harder and didn't catch COVID himself, he probably would have still won in 2020," with a mixture of cheers and boos greeting Haley from the audience.

The biggest fireworks of the night, however, came after Ted Cruz responded to a question from Bret Baier regarding moral authority, in which Cruz stated "As President, I intend to govern with the highest degree of moral leadership of any President in history...and my record of standing up for religious freedom and family values is proof of that." Candace Owens, known for making outlandish and controversial remarks on Twitter, Fox News and elsewhere in the conservative media sphere, responded by bringing up a recent controversy surrounding Cruz's teenage daughter Caroline, who drew attention after posing in an adult diaper on her personal TikTok (which was made private after an earlier controversy in which she criticized her father's conservative bonafides). Owens retorted, "The last thing we need in the White House is a President whose aides have to be assigned to his spoiled brat teenage daughter to change her diaper like a baby...absolutely immoral and ill-fitting of the presidency." Owens attempted to continue, but Baier angrily cut her off, "That is enough! This is not appropriate! We sincerely apologize to our audience here and at home for this...I am so sorry".

Not surprisingly, the audience booed at Owens for attempting to bring up a covert and personal matter, but the other candidates were even more appalled by Owens' rhetorical schoolyard bullying. A very angry Cruz responded by saying "How dare you bring up something that is none of your business, and yes I was aware of that incident and my daughter was wrong to act like that, let alone publish it to social media, and on a site run by China of all places, and she said 'I'm sorry Daddy, I promise to never do it again'. And you want to talk about spoiled brats? That's you, Candace, and if you can't show any sense of decency, maybe it's time for you to drop out in disgrace."

Ben Sasse was even more unimpressed, stating "Grossly uninformed people like Candace Owens and the minions who worship her are the reason why lots of traditionally Republican voters, especially in our traditional suburban base that expects us to stand up for Chip & Joanna and not Jersey Shore and the Kardashians at all times and all costs, went for Joe Biden in 2020", while Chris Christie remarked "There's a reason why Donald Trump hasn't spoken to Candace Owens since he defended the COVID-19 vaccines, and this moment proves why" and Marco Rubio quipped "I stand in solidarity with my fellow Cuban-American Ted Cruz and against the baseless, unprofessional and ostensibly racist attack on my colleague by a keyboard warrior extraordinaire". Mike Pence defended Cruz by calling him "a great father who is trying his very best to raise his beautiful daughters in the face of so much woke nonsense from Hollywood and Wall Street", while Mike Lindell blasted Owens for "advertising child porn in what is supposed to be a family-friendly forum" instead of focusing on more serious issues including homelessness, drug abuse and voter fraud. Nikki Haley, doing her best not to cry, issued words of solace and comfort to Caroline: "Caroline, you are beautiful and strong inside, we all love you and I am sorry that you have to witness this horrible attack on you and your family". Many political observers called Owens' debate performance "arguably the worst we have ever witnessed in our lifetimes".

After the kerfuffle died down, with Tucker Carlson even remarking "This is worse than the one time I argued backstage with Geraldo Rivera", the debate proceeded as normal. Larry Hogan stressed the need for increased funding for "right to try" medical research, citing his experience battling cancer during his governorship, while a much milder Cruz remarked "the urgency to defend human life at all costs, by offering lifetime tax incentives to parents who adopt children and for women who serve as surrogate mothers". Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis also stressed the importance of "market-based solutions to the effects of our changing environment, including controlling tidal flooding on our coasts", while Ben Sasse quipped "If America ran itself the way Chick-fil-A runs its restaurants, America would be in a much better place" (which, as this TL goes on, will literally play out for Sasse in a big way), boosting Sasse in a debate where he otherwise drew scorn for his vote to convict Donald Trump in the second impeachment trial.

In the days after the debate, the candidates moved on to their next campaign barnstorming sessions, with DeSantis traveling to Las Vegas to speak at a Nevada Federation of Republican Women event, while Candace Owens spent most of the weekend apologizing for her attack on Cruz and explaining her "faulty reasoning" behind such a controversial statement (while vaguely stating that "no one deserves to be destroyed on First Amendment grounds") and Nikki Haley keynoted a veterans' breakfast in Michigan, where she stressed the importance of modernizing the VA to reflect "the modern needs of our veterans". And in one of the more unconventional stories of the day, after Ben Sasse concluded a strategy session in Ohio with Republican strategists there, Sasse's campaign RV pulls into the crowded drive-thru of a Chick-fil-A in suburban Cincinnati, noticing that the restaurant inside is understaffed. Sasse then offers to work for two hours as a guest employee, which the manager graciously accepts as Sasse helps speed up the drive-thru and exits with a full order of Chick-fil-A for his entire campaign RV, leading the media to proclaim Sasse "the candidate from Chick-fil-A", despite Sasse's nonchalant attempt to brush off the label as he proceeds to the next stop on his barnstorming tour while the Senate is in recess.

Ted Cruz, meanwhile, flies back to his family in Houston with hugs and smiles (as witnessed by media cameras outside his residence), as daughter Caroline (who previously detested her father's political views on social media in the past) went on TikTok to respond to the Candace Owens smear, "Thank you to all my friends and other supporters who stood up for me, but most especially my Dad for standing up to the bullies who tried to make me feel small. I love you, Daddy!" A post on Twitter from Cruz's campaign, showing a video of Cruz and his daughters sitting down and enjoying dinner and lively conversation, quickly blows up the internet (and breaks Twitter).

That's it for the first Republican debate. Now on to the first debate for the Democrats...

[SaintStan86]

August 25, 2023
CNN SETS FIELD FOR FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE
On Friday, CNN announced the order for its upcoming debate on Tuesday - the first for the Democratic primary, with the Democratic National Committee setting the threshold for inclusion to at least 1 percent of the vote in at least three of the four polls selected by CNN in determining the order of the candidates for the debate, which is to be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - exactly one year before the eventual Democratic nominee accepts the party's nomination at the Democratic National Convention on the same stage. Based on an aggregate average, the order and invitees for the debate are as follows:

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE AUGUST 29TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CNN @ Milwaukee, WI)
Candidate	Avg. (8/25)	Poll A (8/24)	Poll B (8/10)	Poll C (8/6)	Poll D (7/24)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	39.0	41	39	40	36
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	18.3	17	19	21	16
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	12.3	15	12	10	11
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	6.0	5	8	5	N/A
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	3.8	3	5	4	3
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	3.5	3	3	4	4
Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)	3.0	3	2	4	N/A

Not surprisingly, Kamala Harris is front and center in the Democratic debate field, as the Vice President holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary polls, led by her overwhelming support among her fellow African-Americans which are a major Democratic constituency. Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who will be positioned to the left of Harris on stage, holds a slim lead amongst white liberals and progressives, while Pete Buttigieg (who will be positioned to the right of Harris on stage) is a close second to Harris amongst moderates. Gov. Jared Polis will be the farthest left on the podium, followed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar, while Gov. Roy Cooper will be situated to Buttigieg's right followed by Gina Raimondo, who, as the lowest polling of the seven major Democratic candidates, will be the farthest right of the seven on stage. As Klobuchar and Raimondo both entered the race after the fourth poll used by CNN from July 24th, only the averages from the three latest polls are enough to count towards the criteria for inclusion in the first Democratic debate.

Like with the Republicans, the Iowa State Fair's straw poll results for the Democrats, which were released at the same time as the GOP's results, were not included in CNN's methodology. In that poll, Sen. Warren polled 27 percent of the vote, virtually tied with Vice President Harris at 29 percent, with Pete Buttigieg polling 22 percent in that straw poll, followed by Amy Klobuchar at 15 percent and the rest polling in the single digits; potential influences for the result being this way in Iowa may have to do with Iowa's comparatively small Black population (4 percent as of 2020) as well as Klobuchar coming from nearby Minnesota.

Reacting to the news, Warren declares "Iowa is the heartland that decides elections in this country, and the fact that supposedly traditional voters here crave a bold progressive, one who will stand up to the corporate greed, racism and corruption of the Donald Trump regime and defend ordinary Americans, family farmers, workers and Social Security recipients, is proof that the days of Republican-lite Democrats who pander to the same tired corporatist audience that failed the little guy - and the Democratic Party - are long gone." Harris also reacts, pointing out "This race is wide open, and proof that moving forward in the right direction is something that cannot be taken for granted", while Buttigieg remarks, "There are those who wish to write off Iowa because it's not as big a state as a lot of other supposedly important ones. This poll proves that the need for a Democratic candidate who can appeal to all 50 states - especially voters in the heartland who otherwise would settle with whichever Trump clone the Republicans nominate - is more critical than ever".

[SaintStan86]

One week after Republicans gathered for their first debate of the 2024 presidential cycle, the Democrats assembled for their first one in front of a jubilant crowd in Milwaukee, on the same stage at Fiserv Forum where Democrats will hear one year from this point from their nominee, four years after COVID robbed them of that opportunity. With Anderson Cooper leading a cast of moderators that included CNN+ host Chris Wallace, chief political correspondent Dana Bash and a surprise guest, former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, who is tapped to provide a "unique Wisconsin flavor to the debate", emphasizing such populist issues as agriculture, education and healthcare, as well as the influence of labor unions and campaign finance for which Feingold gained a reputable name in his tenure as a Senator. For those who dismiss the notion that this primary was Kamala Harris's to lose, opportunities came a-knockin' in this debate.

August 29, 2023
DEMOCRATS SQUARE OFF IN FIRST 2024 DEBATE
In front of a capacity crowd at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Tuesday night, Democrats battled one another in their first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle, on the same stage where their nominee will be accepting their party's nomination one year from this night. Broadcast on CNN to the largest audience to ever tune in for a Democratic debate, Vice President Kamala Harris and six other fellow Democrats addressed a range of issues important to Democratic voters from healthcare and campaign finance to abortion and immigration. While mostly collegial, there were moments that turned into battles between candidates jockeying for position in the run up to next year's Iowa caucuses.

In addition to CNN anchor Anderson Cooper and political correspondent Dana Bash, the moderators also included Chris Wallace, the former Fox News Sunday host-turned-interviewer on its CNN+ streaming service, and former Wisconsin U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, who in his three terms defined himself as a "populist progressive outsider" who became famous for the campaign finance reform law he cosponsored with his late colleague John McCain of Arizona. In a question to Vice President Harris on campaign finance reform, Feingold asked if she promised to support a hard ban on corporate donations and "soft money", even if it put her at a disadvantage against candidates more reliant on small donors like Elizabeth Warren. Harris responded by pointing out that such provisions would have been in place if the "For the People Act" were actually signed into law, with Warren retorting by pointing to past corporate donations to Harris's past campaigns, including $6,000 from Donald Trump, as "proof that Kamala Harris can't be trusted to deliver for the people if she's not willing to confront questionable donations from those who have fanned the flames of hate".

Another issue which drew attention was healthcare, namely the sort of single-payer healthcare system Warren has championed, and which trips up both Harris and Pete Buttigieg. After an emotional Feingold addressed a question to Harris on implementing a single-payer healthcare plan, in which he mentioned his late colleague, progressive Sen. Paul Wellstone of neighboring Minnesota, Harris asked Feingold "Hold on a second, who is Paul Wellstone?", Wallace responded by mentioning Wellstone was a former U.S. Senator who served with and shared many issue stances with Feingold, with Harris responding by saying "Sorry, I'm not familiar with him", drawing embarrassment from the audience, though Warren does point out "Do forgive her Russ, she wasn't on the national stage when you lost to Ron Johnson", referencing then-San Francisco District Attorney Harris's election as California Attorney General in 2010. Buttigieg also responds awkwardly to the possibility of a single-payer plan, stating "There is just no appetite to impose a Canadian-style solution that would put health insurance companies who employ a lot of Americans out of business," instead choosing to promote his "Medicare For All Who Want It" plan first introduced in his 2020 campaign, only to be greeted by some who heckled him as a "corporate Democrat" and others who praised him for "wanting to finish the work that Barack Obama started".

One segment of the debate involved a Q&A session via Twitter featuring questions from viewers and analysts sent to CNN. The most contentious one involved the issue of abortion, in which former Planned Parenthood CEO turned CNN medical analyst, Dr. Leana Wen, asked if issuing an executive order keeping abortion clinics open from Day One should be considered. Harris and Warren, as well as Gina Raimondo, all floated the idea, while North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper called the need for such a vague executive order "unreasonable", citing opinion polling in which Democrats would be less likely to win in states like his if Democrats were to make it a "third rail" of sorts, and pointing out that "If we were to compel every Democrat to take a hard line in favor of fully funding Planned Parenthood, we are never going to get back the majority in Congress let alone keep the White House", while also promoting community health centers in low-income areas and Medicaid expansion. Planned Parenthood supporters responded on social media by slandering Cooper as #UncleRoy over his opposition to enforcing "abortion on demand" policies via executive order, with Cooper's campaign responding by stating, "No Governor has fought harder for women and children than Roy Cooper".

The rest of the debate, at least compared to the Republicans' debate from last week, was more collegial, with all agreeing that student loan relief is "essential to reinvigorating the economy" (as Sen. Warren stated), that expansion of agriculture funding and food stamps is "the right thing to do" (says Sen. Amy Klobuchar), and that religious and racial discrimination represent "a grave threat to democracy", with Harris vowing to utilize the PATRIOT Act to "prosecute those who intimidate those of distinct minority status at the ballot box", drawing criticism from Feingold (who was the only U.S. Senator to vote against the PATRIOT Act in its first vote, taken in the wake of 9/11). And while talk of a "Green New Deal" did not evolve into fisticuffs, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis did respond by pointing out that "market-based solutions to mitigating the effects of climate change on our planet, and pressuring China to conform to those standards, will go a long way towards reducing our carbon footprint". Polis also drew praise for his plan to "enforce our borders and give immigrants a pathway to citizenship at the same time", calling it "the right plan for America to move forward as one nation".

Overall, Elizabeth Warren was seen as the big winner, while Kamala Harris and Roy Cooper were seen as the losers, Jared Polis the biggest gainer (though this is an understatement considering how low Polis has fared in recent polling), and the rest not experiencing much of a change in opinion. After the debates, Gov. Cooper hosted a town hall in Davenport where he defended his healthcare stances as well as "a woman's right to choose", while Warren began touting herself as "the new frontrunner in the race for President". Pete Buttigieg also makes a stop on Friday night on the University of Iowa campus, where he is joined once again by David Letterman (who energizes the crowd at Carver-Hawkeye Arena with "Top Ten Reasons Pete Buttigieg Will Be A Great President", with No. 1 being "Mayor Pete Is Just Too Good for Notre Dame").

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Im disappointed there aren't any actual leftists running

[deluxedriver]

Do we know the endorsements of each candidate?

[SaintStan86]

Shortly before the participants were announced for the Fox News debate in Pittsburgh, CNN announced that its Republican presidential debate would take place on Wednesday, September 13th, with its lead Washington correspondent Jake Tapper joined by Dana Bash and Chris Wallace from the first Democratic debate. Conducting the debate in partnership with Salem Media, the three CNN correspondents are joined by Salem Radio host Dennis Prager, who is based in Los Angeles and at times has had a love-hate relationship with the liberal-leaning network. Nonetheless, Prager offers to serve as a moderator for the Reagan Library debate to provide a "strong conservative voice of record that will remind the Republican candidates that a CNN debate is no excuse to let down your guard". Given Prager's status a noted Jewish conservative who is also a Zionist, social issues and foreign policy from a pro-Israel perspective are expected to be top issues. The Republican Jewish Coalition, along with the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, also serve as hosts for the debate. As CNN's criteria only requires 1 percent on average in three polls, and because all of the candidates have visited at least two of the "Early Four" states, CNN has decided to have one four-hour debate with all 12 candidates on stage - though it did state that if more than 12 candidates qualified, it would have split its candidates into two checkerboard groups, much like the early Democratic debates of 2020 and unlike the 2016 debates which relegated lower-polling candidates to a "kids' table debate".

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE SEPTEMBER 13TH PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CNN @ Reagan Library, Simi Valley, CA)
Candidate	Avg. (9/8)	Poll A (9/5)	Poll B (9/2)	Poll C (8/28)	Poll D (8/25)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	18	16	19	18	19
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	17.75	14	18	21	18
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	15.5	15	17	16	14
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	13.25	11	15	14	13
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	5.75	6	6	5	6
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	4.5	5	3	5	5
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	4	6	4	3	3
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.75	5	3	3	4
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.75	3	3	5	4
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	2	3	1	2	2
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	1.25	2	1	1	1
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	1.25	1	2	1	1

Compared to the first debate, Cruz has experienced a "sympathy bump" due to the controversial attack on him by Candace Owens in the first debate, while Tom Cotton and Mike Pompeo (as well as Marco Rubio) have somewhat benefited due to Haley's defense of the 2020 election results and her assertion that Trump's loss was in part influenced by his positive COVID diagnosis before the election. Ben Sasse does experience a slight bit of a bump due to his much publicized Chick-fil-A volunteer effort, but otherwise his numbers remain unchanged. Mike Lindell and Candace Owens both gambled with controversy in the first debate, and obviously while their numbers took a slight hit, they still managed to qualify for the CNN debate. In anticipation of his CNN debate, Lindell's company, MyPillow, advertises a "Ronald Reagan Appreciation Special" offering 40% off first orders, in reference to Reagan being the 40th President of the United States, leading to a flurry of consumer complaints over what some allege to be "reciprocal trade practices".

September 13, 2020
SECOND GOP DEBATE DRAWS DISTINCTIONS ON ISRAEL, IMMIGRATION, AND...CHICK-FIL-A?

Republicans conducted their second debate on Wednesday night at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library near Los Angeles, the first one to feature all 12 of the major declared candidates in the race so far. Lasting just over four hours, the debate was hosted by CNN and touched on a number of conservative hallmarks of the Reagan years - fierce opposition to communism wrapped into a "peace through strength" foreign policy, reverence for traditional values and economic policies centered on fiscal restraint and low taxes. With Salem Radio host Dennis Prager serving as a moderator alongside a trio of CNN correspondents led by Washington correspondent Jake Tapper, the debate was mostly cordial as the question of which candidate is the most capable of maintaining former President Donald Trump's base in 2024 was in the minds of the candidates - and the audience.

Touching on her foreign policy experience, former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley pointed to her time as Ambassador to the United Nations, including her strong support for Israel by stating, "Israel is our closest and most sacred ally, and as your President the Jewish people will have its strongest voice representing them here in America". Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, making his first presidential debate, retorted by saying "When the Abraham Accords took place in the Rose Garden, I was there with Jared Kushner and President Trump. It is the sort of thing that the Gipper would have loved to have signed. All Nikki Haley has done is talk about it like it was the only good thing Trump did in his four years". Marco Rubio also chimed in, pointing out "There are two things I won't do as your President: One is stab Trump's supporters in the back, which I'm sure my opponents would have done to Reagan, and the other is stand tall for Israel. On one of these matters, Nikki Haley is on the wrong side of history."

Another point centered on whether or not fixating on tax cuts, particularly of the supply-side variety championed by Reagan, is an optimal fiscal strategy going forward. When asked by Dana Bash if more tax cuts are necessary even if it adds to the deficit, Ron DeSantis responded, "Well certainly during the pandemic we had our share of supply chain, employment and welfare issues that could have been avoided...As your President, none of this will be happening, and to that extent the benefits of continuously lower taxes fueled by wiping out all these issues via unemployment and more consumption definitely outweigh whatever costs it may add to our deficit, which by the way will turn into a surplus on my watch." Chris Christie responded to DeSantis by stating, "We can't keep kicking the can down the road...Tax cuts are nice, but do remember that the tax cuts weren't popular with my constituents who still suffered under the crushing weight of the Democrat-controlled legislature I had to contend with as Governor." (Historical note: Many New Jersey voters who traditionally voted Republican swung to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms due to the capping of state and local tax deductions that were popular with many New Jerseyans and other liberal-leaning states, many of whom had large Democratic majorities with large state and local bureaucracies.)

After her initial debate bomb in the first debate, Candace Owens responded to a question by Chris Wallace on whether or not her focus on converting Black voters to the GOP is worth crowding out other demographics. Owens' response was, "That is simply not true", and highlighted urban renewal policies as an example, "As your President, I will make improving the quality of urban communities that have long suffered under the crushing policies of failed Democrat administrations and governors a priority, with opportunity zones aimed at keeping distressed minority communities from falling off the map", praising former HUD Secretary Ben Carson as "the gold standard by which all HUD secretaries are judged". Larry Hogan responded to Owens' Blexit campaign, attempting to dismiss it by pointing out, "All Candace Owens talks about is converting Black voters to the GOP...I won unprecedented numbers of Black voters in Maryland, not because of gimmicky movements like Candace's, but because I actually did what voters wanted me to do and kept my promises. Because that's what a leader does." Unsurprisingly, Owens gets the larger applause, with her supporters criticizing Hogan on social media for "being a bully who punches below his weight".

Streamlining government also became another focus, as Prager asked of the candidates, "In the spirit of Ronald Reagan, what departments do you think are irrelevant to the federal government?" Ben Sasse, who served as president of a small Lutheran university in Fremont, Nebraska, pointed to the Department of Education as a starting point, citing "the duplicitous bureaucracy that is the Department of Education has done more to hinder the growth of future leaders in this country than it has helped, and as a former President of Midland University in small-town Fremont, Nebraska, I knew this all too well." Ted Cruz, meanwhile, pointed to the EPA, "If there's anything America can do without, it's the wholly unconstitutional and burdensome EPA, which is standing in the way of millions of oil and gas and agriculture employees whose livelihoods have suffered due to climate alarmism propagated by the EPA and set in stone by Joe Biden." Mike Lindell, meanwhile, drew attention by calling for a "constitutional convention to wipe out every bit of unconstitutional government that is holding America hostage", with Lindell also emphasizing new safeguards for elections to "wipe out the scourge of voter fraud".

Tom Cotton, making his debut in the debate stage of the Republican nomination battle, drew attention and scorn by pointing to the controversial issue of immigration, "With all due respect to Ronald Reagan, he certainly got it wrong when he issued amnesty to illegal aliens late in his presidency", pointing to the comprehensive immigration reform package passed under Reagan in 1986. Mike Pence responded by stating, "If this had worked as intended and Democrats cooperated with Reagan instead of bypassing him by continuing to allow blanket amnesty, illegal immigration wouldn't even be the problem it is now and we wouldn't be talking about what Reagan called his biggest regret...It's not Reagan's fault that amnesty has skyrocketed since then." Chris Christie seconded Pence's motion, pointing out, "Before we go and try to discredit Reagan's legacy, just remember that these Dreamers that Reagan stood up for probably are just as patriotic and productive, if not more so, than our own American kids who unlike the Dreamers Reagan championed actually studied math and science in their classrooms overseas, while our own kids were being indoctrinated with critical race theory." Christie does stir the pot, however, when he retorted to Cotton by quipping, "If only your state spent less time defending Roger Clinton's drug addiction and more time busting fentanyl dealers..."

The debate also included plenty of banter between the candidates on even the least concerning of issues. For example, shortly after the debate began Pompeo asked Sasse "how's your new day job at Chick-fil-A?" the latter replies, "Well, for two hours we helped speed up a long drive-thru line, took out several boxes of chicken to prepare and fry, addressed any issues with orders that came about and cleaned up a waste water problem that was beginning to develop. I'm pretty sure Mike Rowe knows the last part all too well." Sasse's quip generates laughter and applause from the audience. And when asked during the Q&A session about what Congress can do about reforming the "name, image and likeness" process for college athletes to counter reports of abuse of the practice, DeSantis (himself a former college athlete who played baseball at Yale as R.D. DeSantis) highlighted his success in "implementing an ethically strong NIL policy" as Governor of Florida. Fellow Floridian (and University of Florida alum) Rubio responded by saying, "Maybe we should cap recruiting limits for Alabama and Nick Saban first", with DeSantis retorting, "Are you sure you're in the right debate? Look where you are!", pointing to Reagan's Air Force One in the background.

In their closing remarks, Pence made the biggest impression on the debate crowd, "Ronald Reagan was my greatest inspiration in my life...it is because of him that I became a Republican, to the point where when I made it big as a talk radio host in Indiana, no one could tell that I voted for Jimmy Carter in 1980. If I can see the light like the Gipper did in '64, so can you!", to thunderous applause that lasted nearly a minute.

[SaintStan86]

And now, given that the "Blank Canvas" theme for this TL goes beyond Biden and Trump not running for President to include a drastic shakeup in the U.S. Senate, here is the first preview of the U.S. Senate elections up for consideration in 2024...



As expected, the initial Senate map is advantageous to the GOP, with the open West Virginia seat of retiring Democrat Joe Manchin widely expected to flip in 2024. So far, U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and former energy executive-turned-convicted felon and 2020 Constitution Party presidential nominee Don Blankenship are the only notable Republicans to declare, with former State Senator and retired U.S. Army Major Richard Ojeda having recently entered the race for the Democrats. New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are the only states in the Lower 48 that start out as safe for the Democrats, as the incumbents in these seats (respectively Kirsten Gillibrand, Chris Murphy, Sheldon Whitehouse and Elizabeth Warren) have all declared for reelection, with Warren allowed to run for reelection and for President at the same time.

Presently, only three tossups exist on this map, with Arizona, Michigan and Montana all expected to have competitive races. Arizona is the most competitive, as it is expected to have an explosive Democratic primary with U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego having declared for the Democratic nomination against incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who has drawn outrage from progressives due to her moderate voting stances and her bottling up of the Democrats' election reform legislation in 2022. Republicans have fielded two U.S. Reps so far in Paul Gosar and David Schweikert, none of whom come without baggage. Gosar has been one of the biggest defenders of "the Big Lie", continuing to insist that the 2020 election had been "stolen" from Donald Trump, while Schweikert has been the subject of an ethical lapse that (combined with his district having gone for Biden in 2020) has resulted in his last two reelection races in his district being competitive. Notably missing from the Republican field is controversial former state GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward, who resigned shortly after the 2022 elections and is now running to succeed Gosar in his heavily Republican western-based 9th District, but Republicans still continue to search around for a more broad-based candidate who can unite Republicans in the November 2024 election, hoping that former Gov. Doug Ducey will enter despite lingering objections from the far-right flank of the party.

In Michigan, where Debbie Stabenow is retiring, former Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is running to succeed Stabenow and keep the seat in Democratic hands, while John James is hoping the third time is a charm in his bid as the likely Republican nominee, with polling indicating a dead heat - something that never existed initially with James' first two Senate bids against Stabenow in 2018 and Gary Peters in 2020. Meanwhile, in Montana it's a rematch as three-term Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is facing off against two-term U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale.

Initially, Democrats also have seven seats that are considered leaning towards them for the moment as competitive races are being anticipated since most of these states are considered battlegrounds to some extent in the presidential election. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown has drawn three high-profile candidacies from U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, 2022 candidate and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance and former Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted (who lost his job when then-incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine lost his 2022 primary renomination against then-former U.S. Rep. and current Gov. Jim Renacci). Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Bob Casey, Jr. has all but declared a bid for reelection, while Republican prospects remain unsettled due to many potential candidates waiting on Donald Trump, Jr. to decide whether or not to pursue a Senate run in 2024.

The biggest Democratic-leaning seat up for grabs is the open Minnesota seat of presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, where former Attorney General Lori Swanson and current Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan have been battling for what is locally known as the DFL (short for Democratic-Farmer-Labor) nomination, with U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips having filed paperwork to run for the nomination as well, with the Talenti gelato entrepreneur slotting his candidacy as the "suburban wine mom" candidate between the more establishmentarian Swanson and the more progressive Flanagan (who once worked for such liberal stalwarts as Paul Wellstone and Al Franken). The Republican field remains unclear as each of the top three prospects for the GOP - former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, exurban Twin Cities U.S. Rep. and former NRCC head Tom Emmer and northern-based U.S. Rep. Pete Stauber - have all passed on the race.

In Maine, Democrats are waiting to decide whether or not independent incumbent Angus King (who caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate) is going to run for a third term. However, one Republican isn't waiting as State Sen. and former state GOP Chairman Rick Bennett has declared his candidacy for King's seat, while in New Mexico former KRQE-TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti has declared his candidacy for his third statewide run in as many election cycles, looking to unseat two-term incumbent Martin Heinrich in a race that has drawn comparison to that of John James in Michigan. Wisconsin and Nevada remain undecided, as otherwise unremarkable Democratic incumbents Tammy Baldwin and Jacky Rosen have yet to draw credible GOP challengers that could otherwise make their reelection bids challenging.

This is not to say that the GOP doesn't have competitive races of their own. In Texas, Ted Cruz's decision to run for President has set off a scramble amongst the state's congressional delegation with four members - Dan Crenshaw, Lance Gooden, Chip Roy and Roger Williams (the latter much older than the other three) - all declaring candidacies for Cruz's seat along with former state GOP Chairman (and former Florida U.S. Rep.) Allen West, moderate former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, state Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, Infowars host Harrison Smith and former Travis County GOP Chairman Rob Morrow. The Democratic field has become a battle between former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro and retired astronaut Scott Kelly whose twin brother Mark is currently serving in the U.S. Senate from Arizona, with Beto O'Rourke vowing to stay out of the nomination battle. In Florida, Rick Scott's competitive reelection bid was widely expected to be such, with former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy having all but cleared the Democratic field and even outraised Scott, while Josh Hawley's controversial populist style of governance, and especially his key role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, has attracted a primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner and a general election battle from former State Auditor Nicole Galloway.

There are also some states where the Democrat is favored but the race could otherwise become competitive. In California, where Dianne Feinstein is retiring, a competitive Democratic field has emerged with U.S. Reps. and liberal darlings Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell emerging as early contenders, joined by Los Angeles-area U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (famous for his key role in the Trump impeachment trials), Palm Springs-based U.S. Rep. Raul Ruiz, and former Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante - all more establishment Democrats who don't necessarily subscribe to the sort of "Green New Deal"- and "single payer"-flavored progressivism the former two contenders promote. One prominent Republican to enter the race is former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, whose appointment by Trump as acting Director of National Intelligence made him the first openly gay Cabinet member to ever serve in such a capacity, with Grenell making the announcement at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library just moments before the second presidential debate began.

In Maryland, three-term Democrat Ben Cardin has announced his retirement; while Democrats are clearly favored given the state's advantageous Democratic lean, Republicans remain hopeful that a strong candidate can shake up the race against the likely Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. John Sarbanes, whose father Paul Sarbanes held the same Senate seat for five terms before retiring (and being succeeded by Cardin) in 2006. In Virginia, two-term incumbent Tim Kaine remains relatively popular, but has never had a cakewalk election for the Senate nor his one-and-done win as Governor in 2005, and this time is expected to be no different as State Senator Jill Vogel, a one-time Chief Counsel to the RNC who hails from exurban Northern Virginia's Fauquier County and has been a key ally of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, has declared her candidacy against Kaine. And in New Jersey, where scandal-tarred incumbent Bob Menendez has decided to seek reelection, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, has declared her candidacy against Menendez, with the winner of the expected high-stakes Democratic primary likely taking on physician and former TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, who after losing narrowly in Pennsylvania current U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, has decided to return to his longtime hometown of Cliffside Park (near the Hudson River waterfront in Bergen County but not on it) to run for this Senate seat, but not without criticism with one conservative pundit citing, "If he couldn't be a tattooed, bald-headed mongoloid in swing-state Pennsylvania (referring to Fetterman), what makes one think Dr. Oz could do the same thing in a blue state like New Jersey?".

In Vermont, many statewide Democrats as well as Republican Gov. Phil Scott are waiting to see whether or not two-time presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, an independent and self-described "Democratic socialist" who caucuses with the Democrats, decides to run for reelection, and the same is true in Washington state where incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell also has not declared her intentions yet. In Delaware, where four-term Democrat Tom Carper is retiring, at-large U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination and perhaps the general as well, but Biden's home state has enough of a Republican vote (especially south of heavily Democratic Wilmington and New Castle County) to where a competitive Republican candidacy could make the one-time bellwether state competitive again. Hawaii, the only safe blue state outside of the northeast, remains undecided on the Democratic side as incumbent Mazie Hirono has not announced her intentions yet on whether or not to seek a third term.

Of the seven other Republican seats, Indiana and Mississippi have slight chances of a potentially vigorous general election. In the former, 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Tom McDermott has already declared his candidacy for Governor (Republican incumbent Eric Holcomb, who succeeded Mike Pence when the latter became Vice President, is term-limited), with many expecting the race for U.S. Senate against freshman Mike Braun, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, to also be similarly competitive given McDermott's above average polling numbers in metro areas outside of Indianapolis as well as polling upwards of 90 percent of the Democratic vote Braun's defeated predecessor Joe Donnelly amassed in 2018. The latter also has a chance of being competitive given the state's large Black population - one of the largest percentages in the nation at over 36 percent, even though incumbent Republican Roger Wicker is running for reelection and Mississippi's Black population is more conservative compared to those of other states.

Republicans are expected to safely win reelection in the five remaining seats where all of the incumbents have decided to seek another term, but one of them is not guaranteed to win the primary as Utah's Mitt Romney, the one-time 2012 presidential nominee who voted to convict Donald Trump twice, is facing a strong primary challenge from former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz who takes a leave of absence from his commentary and substitute hosting duties at Fox News to challenge Romney. The other four are expected to win reelection in 2024, including freshmen Kevin Cramer of North Dakota and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee (who both won competitive races in 2018 with the former defeating an incumbent Democrat) and long-serving incumbents John Barrasso of Wyoming and Deb Fischer of Nebraska, who aims to become her state's first Republican U.S. Senator to win a third term since Carl Curtis in 1966.

Not included on this list (even though the box inside this state, which is not visibly lit up due to some apparent bug, is in there) is the seat vacated by Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron has settled into the seat in his first few months, with the Democratic nomination having been won by Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer whose candidacy gains significant attention from both national Democrats and the DSCC, as well as from President Biden and former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, all of whom will eventually travel to Kentucky if they haven't already to promote Fischer's candidacy. So far, Cameron holds the lead in polling and fundraising and has been endorsed by Donald Trump, but Fischer's candidacy has forced the NRSC to spend resources it has wished to spend in 2024 to stave off a strong challenge from the Democrats.

[2016]

Why is the National Republican Senatorial Cmt. not recruiting former Interior Secretary under Donald Trump Rep. Ryan Zinke to run in Montana.

That Seat is gone for Tester if Zinke runs.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why is the National Republican Senatorial Cmt. not recruiting former Interior Secretary under Donald Trump Rep. Ryan Zinke to run in Montana.

That Seat is gone for Tester if Zinke runs.

Clearly you don't understand that Tester is invincible thanks to #populism

[SaintStan86]

September 16, 2023
DEBATE DATES SET IN STONE AS CAMPAIGN SEASON BEGINS TO GAIN STEAM
Following Wednesday's Republican debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, with the Democratic debate coming up next Friday in Phoenix (to be televised on NBC with a Spanish simulcast on Telemundo), the Republican and Democratic parties announced the full schedules of their upcoming debates for the remainder of the year - six on the Republican side, four on the Democratic side (not including next week's debate), along with a few others.

The RNC had already announced earlier in the month that its third Republican debate will take place on Friday, October 13th in Salt Lake City at Abravanel Hall, which is home to the Utah Symphony, and like the upcoming Democratic debate will also be televised on NBC with a Spanish simulcast on Telemundo. NBC News anchors Lester Holt, Chuck Todd and José Díaz-Balart (whose brother is Florida U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart) will serve as moderators alongside commentator Hugh Hewitt and Hal Boyd, executive editor for the national edition of the LDS-controlled Deseret News (which is co-owned with NBC's affiliate in Salt Lake City, KSL-TV). The RNC has now scheduled other debates for:

• Wednesday, October 25th, to be broadcast by Fox Business from the Orpheum Theatre in Omaha, Nebraska.
• Saturday, November 11th (Veterans Day), broadcast by PBS from the Lila Cockrell Theatre at the Henry B. González Convention Center in San Antonio.
  
• Tuesday, November 28th, broadcast by MTV as part of their "Choose or Lose" coverage and simulcast on CBS from Crisler Center on the campus of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
• Wednesday, December 6th, broadcast by Univision and ABC from the Knight Concert Hall at the Adrienne Arsht Center in Miami, and
• Tuesday, December 19th, broadcast on Newsmax and stations owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group from Reynolds Hall at the Smith Center for the Performing Arts in Las Vegas.

In addition to next week's debate in Phoenix, the DNC scheduled four more debates for the remainder of the year. The next two debates are in response to the revised primary and caucus calendar for the Democrats, who have decided to push South Carolina and Nevada ahead of Iowa, with the third debate set to take place at the Colosseum at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas on Tuesday, October 17th (televised by Univision and ABC, and sponsored by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Culinary Workers Union which represents over 60,000 foodservice workers in Las Vegas restaurants and casinos), followed by the fourth debate at the Colonial Life Arena on the campus of the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina on Tuesday, November 14 (broadcast by BET, simulcast on CBS and sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, with the debate also being advertised under MTV's "Choose or Lose" branding). Two other Democratic debates have also been scheduled for Friday, December 1st from the Forrest Theatre in Philadelphia (broadcast on CNN) and Saturday, December 16th from the Hoyt Sherman Place in Des Moines, Iowa (broadcast on PBS).

Nexstar Media Group has also announced the dates for its debates at the landmark Chicago Theatre in Chicago in the middle of January, which will be broadcast nationally on its cable channel NewsNation (formerly known as WGN America), and will also be broadcast on stations owned by Nexstar (including Chicago's WGN-TV, as well as some of those owned by E.W. Scripps and Hearst), both featuring former NBC News and CNN anchor Soledad O'Brien (who hosts a Hearst-produced weekend public affairs show, Matter of Fact) as a moderator. The Republican debate will be held on Tuesday, January 16th and will also feature (Scripps-owned) Court TV primetime anchor Vinnie Politan, NewsNation anchor Joe Donlon, and Chicago Tribune editorial page editor Chris Jones as moderators, while the Democratic debate will be held on Thursday, January 18th with ABC News Chief Legal Analyst and NewsNation host Dan Abrams (whose Live PD has been revived on NewsNation to strong ratings in this TL), Newsy anchor Tatevik Aprikyan (who hosts The Why for the Scripps-owned network) and Chicago Sun-Times editorial board chief Lorraine Forte joining O'Brien as moderators for this debate.

The RNC also announced two other debates - a Thursday, January 4th debate on Fox News (and also simulcast on Fox) in the run-up to the Iowa caucuses from the Hy-Vee Hall at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, and the traditional Saturday, February 10th debate in New Hampshire before the following Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, which will take place at Thomas F. Sullivan Arena on the campus of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown and be hosted by ABC News, Univision and ABC's Manchester, N.H. affiliate, WMUR-TV. The DNC has also announced an additional debate as well, to also take place at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire on the Friday before the GOP debate (February 9th) and also involving ABC News, Univision and WMUR. (Editor's note: The Sunday before the New Hampshire primary, February 11th, is the date of Super Bowl LVIII which CBS is set to air from Las Vegas - anyone would be fools to counter program the Super Bowl with a presidential debate!)

[SaintStan86]

September 19, 2022
NBC SETS FIELD FOR SECOND DEMOCRATIC DEBATE
On Tuesday, NBC set the field for its debate, the second overall on the Democratic side, set to take place on Friday night in Phoenix at the Arizona Federal Theatre, which contrary to one's assumption of being an "old movie palace", is actually a commercial indoor music theatre specializing in popular music acts - similar to the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles; the "Arizona Federal" refers to the corporate sponsor, Arizona Federal Credit Union. NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt and his Saturday counterpart José Díaz-Balart, Meet the Press anchor Chuck Todd and MSNBC opinion host Chris Hayes are the moderators, along with E.J. Montini, the liberal columnist for the "establishment right"-leaning Arizona Republic (whose offices are co-located with the studios of its formerly co-owned NBC affiliate, KPNX). The debate is essentially a "do-over" from the 2020 cycle, as the Arizona Federal Theatre was set to host the first debate following Super Tuesday until the COVID-19 pandemic took away its audience and eventually forced the debate, which was set to air on CNN, to be moved to the network's Washington, D.C. studios.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE SEPTEMBER 22ND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NBC/MSNBC @ Phoenix, AZ)
Candidate	Avg. (9/19)	Poll A (9/18)	Poll B (9/13)	Poll C (9/8)	Poll D (9/2)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	35.5	37	33	34	38
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	23.3	25	22	24	22
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	12.7	14	13	11	13
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	5.8	7	6	5	5
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	5.5	5	5	7	5
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	2.8	3	2	3	3
Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)	2.3	2	2	3	2

Unsurprisingly, Elizabeth Warren has gained support in the Democratic primary field after her strong performance from the previous debate, while Kamala Harris has been taken down a few notches while still holding the overall lead. Jared Polis's numbers have more than doubled following the positive press received from the first debate. Roy Cooper has been taken down a bit after drawing attention from public health and women's rights groups who slammed him for his indifference towards the abortion issue. At the beginning of the debate, Lester Holt proclaims, "Arizona Democrats have finally arrived at their finest hour - four years after COVID-19 took away their one chance to see the candidates up close, tonight they will finally get their chance in a state that President Biden won in 2020."

September 22, 2023
HARRIS TRIPPED UP IN SECOND DEBATE AS BUTTIGIEG RISES
On Friday night, Vice President Kamala Harris took considerable heat during the second Democratic debate in Phoenix, nationally televised on NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, with the majority of the criticism centering on her handling of foreign policy matters as well as her views on the growing divisions between Arizona Democrats over the Senate race involving incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and her more liberal challenger, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego. The debate also saw a watershed moment for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who appealed to more moderate Democrats in the audience seeking a Democrat more in the moderate-left mold of Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sens. Sinema and Mark Kelly.

When asked by liberal columnist E.J. Montini of The Arizona Republic about her view of the high-stakes U.S. Senate primary involving Sinema and Gallego, the former of whom spurned Harris and fellow Democrats on voting rights legislation extensively promoted by the party, Harris responded, "Not everything Kyrsten Sinema has said is exactly what I wanted to see happen with regards to the failed election reform legislation stalled by a recalcitrant Republican minority continuing to peddle the lie that this election was stolen from Donald Trump, but Sen. Sinema has served the people of Arizona well and is the sort of independent-minded, problem-solving Democrat that fits this state perfectly," leading to a cascade of boos from the audience. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has become critical of Sinema since the failed passage of the voting rights legislation, responded, "Here in Arizona and across the country, there are many Republicans and even Trump supporters who agree that an economy and a voting system that works for the American people is essential to democracy...Vice President Harris is clearly out of touch with progressive values."

Kyrsten Sinema and the voting rights fiasco were far from the only issues for which Harris and Warren sparred. On criminal justice issues, MSNBC host Chris Hayes asked Harris about her record as San Francisco District Attorney, specifically criticism over a disproportionate number of drug offenders being handed "tough sentences for marijuana". Harris responded by pointing out that "as District Attorney for San Francisco, my hands were tied", citing the state's three-strikes law and other "tough on crime" initiatives of previous Republican Governors Pete Wilson and George Deukmejian (whose frequency on Google searches and Twitter "trending feeds" exploded overnight following the debate). Warren simply responded, "As President, I will sign an executive order decriminalizing marijuana and banning mandatory minimum sentences. Kamala Harris won't."

The debate also served as a chance for more moderate Democrats to shine in the eyes of more centrist voters seeking an alternative to the more liberal frontrunners. Buttigieg appealed to voters, "Some Democrats think the way to victory is to do the kind of ideological purity the Republicans do a very good job of doing. But as we have seen before, that's not how voters here in Arizona think. As your President, my first priority will be to solve the problems that affect us all, because at the end of the day it's not about the way you vote or how you power your car, rather it's how you get home from work and whether you can afford to retire comfortably. After all, don't people come here to spend their golden years?" Buttigieg's appeal was met with chuckles and applause.

In post-debate polling, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren gained some additional support at the expense of Harris, while Roy Cooper saw his numbers improve as well and Jared Polis maintain his as their stressing of their successful records as governors of competitive states (one albeit more favorably Democratic than the other) drew positive numbers from the audience. Gina Raimondo hardly gained any traction from Harris's post-polling declines, as her debate performance proved to be indistinguishable this time. But the big gainer was Pete Buttigieg, who appeared to take more from Kamala Harris than Elizabeth Warren did.

[Tekken_Guy]

A few questions about the Senate
-Has Rosendale cleared the primary field in Montana or are other candidates expected to get in?
-Are there any other candidates besides Whitmer and James in MI? Or are the fields cleared there as well?
-Is Andy Biggs going to run in AZ-SEN?

[SaintStan86]

October 10, 2023
NBC SETS ORDER FOR THIRD REPUBLICAN DEBATE, ANNOUNCES SECOND NIGHT
On Tuesday, NBC announced the order for its upcoming Republican debate on Friday night in Salt Lake City, which save for some shifts remains virtually unchanged. However, in a twist NBC also announced last week that instead of airing reruns or its Dateline true crime magazine on Saturday night (with its usual airing of vintage Saturday Night Live clips airing in the last hour before the late news and a new SNL episode), it will split its debate into two 2-hour blocks with one airing on Friday night beginning at 9pm ET/8pm CT and the other airing on Saturday night beginning at 8pm ET/7pm CT. This is made possible as NBC's primary fall sports coverage of Premier League soccer in the mornings and Notre Dame college football concludes before 7pm ET, and also given that Saturday night has become more of a "burn off" night for American television, but also due to the large field of presidential candidates on the Republican side.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE OCTOBER 13TH PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NBC/Telemundo @ Salt Lake City, UT)
Candidate	Avg. (10/10)	Poll A (10/8)	Poll B (10/2)	Poll C (9/29)	Poll D (9/24)	Poll E (9/19)	Poll F (9/16)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	17	16	15	16	19	15	21
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	15.7	15	16	15	16	15	17
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	14.8	17	17	17	10	15	13
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	13.3	12	12	15	14	14	13
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	6.7	7	5	7	5	7	9
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	4.8	5	5	5	6	5	3
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	4.3	6	4	4	4	5	3
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	4.2	3	2	5	4	4	7
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.7	4	3	4	4	4	3
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	3	4	4	3	3	2	2
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	2.3	2	3	3	1	3	2
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	1.8	2	1	1	3	2	2

As expected, the polling order remains virtually unchanged, but the race for the Republican nomination has become a two-tiered affair with one tier representing Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo a somewhat solid fifth place, and most of the rest of the participants polling between three and five percent. However, the continuous tightening of the top of the presidential field is being attributed to a number of factors, not the least of which include Haley's supposed indifference towards Donald Trump (which has benefited Marco Rubio and Pompeo to a sizable extent), a recent spate of positive advertising from the Cruz campaign, and DeSantis's state beginning to experience more humble economic projections as Florida's advantage of a "free state" during the pandemic was now being copied in virtually the rest of the country, exposing potential issues with regards to Florida's housing, economic and education concerns, which in turn has dented DeSantis's popularity in his home state (though not enough to endanger him, not that it mattered given that DeSantis is term-limited in 2026).

With the debate now split between two nights, NBC has decided to go with the aforementioned checkerboard approach it used for the first Democratic debate in 2020. The Friday night debate will feature DeSantis, Cruz, Pompeo, Ben Sasse, Chris Christie and Tom Cotton, with a broadcast of an NBC game show (unnamed in this TL) preceding the 9/8c debate, while the Saturday night debate, slated to air at 8/7c followed by an SNL Vintage broadcast of tribute clips to Alec Baldwin's Saturday Night Live portrayal of Donald Trump - nasal drip and all - at 10/9c, will feature Pence, Haley, Rubio, Larry Hogan, Candace Owens and Mike Lindell. The moderators for the debate remain unchanged, with NBC News anchors Lester Holt, Chuck Todd and José Díaz-Balart joined by NBC News contributor and Salem Radio host Hugh Hewitt and Deseret News national editor Hal Boyd appearing on both nights.

October 13, 2023
OLD SCANDALS, LOYALTY TESTS TAKE CENTER STAGE IN 1ST UTAH GOP DEBATE
Friday night's debate at the Maurice Abravanel Hall in Salt Lake City, home to the Utah Symphony Orchestra, was anything but harmonious as six of the twelve major candidates in the Republican nomination fight squared off over Donald Trump, previous scandals and other issues in front of a standing-room only crowd that otherwise centered around economic and social issues of key interest to Utah and Western voters, including the state's large Mormon population - a demographic known for its on-again, off-again support of the former President. All of the candidates on stage - Sens. Ted Cruz, Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton, Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Gov. Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo - all provided healthy debate on key issues such as land rights, energy, taxes and social issues. However, for one Senator the debate became more distraction than dialog.

Three of the biggest fights in the debate directly involved Sen. Ben Sasse, with two being instigated by the iconoclastic Nebraskan (known for his outspoken indifference towards Trump) and the other where Sasse himself was the target. After Sasse questioned Sen. Ted Cruz, "After everything he did, falsely accusing you of having extramarital affairs, claiming your father - a wonderful pastor by the way - assassinated John F. Kennedy, why in the hell are you still defending Donald Trump - a man with absolutely the worst moral compass imaginable?" Cruz responded, "Donald Trump wasn't perfect, but for the moment he had experienced an epiphany from Jesus and was strong and willing in resolving his moral shortcomings," also pointing to Trump's strong stances against abortion and in favor of religious freedom, but Sasse remained unimpressed and took a swipe at Cruz's parenting, "At least we homeschool our kids and check our kids' social media accounts, as opposed to sending our kids to an elite private school and letting them loose on TikTok".

Later in the debate, Sasse himself became the target of criticism from Mike Pompeo when Pompeo brought up a controversy surrounding hedge fund manager Paul Singer, whose Elliott Management played a key role in the merger of Cabela's (which was previously based in the western Nebraska city of Sidney) with Bass Pro Shops, and became the subject of a story by Fox News host Tucker Carlson who called out Sasse for being 'silent' on whether or not to return a past campaign contribution from Singer. Sasse responded, "I don't know who Paul Singer is, but I do know that Mike Pompeo is Charles Koch's homeboy," pointing to Pompeo's de facto endorsement from the Koch Industries co-owner and one-time GOP megafunder and then to Sen. Tom Cotton, who not only took thousands from Singer but also was the beneficiary of a recent Aspen fundraiser hosted by Singer (Coincidentally, Bass Pro Shops is headquartered in Springfield, Mo., whose TV market bleeds into a northwestern portion of Arkansas). "The people funding my campaign are small donors and hard-working Nebraskans and others who feel that big government loyalists from both parties have failed them. Not Wall Street barons like Paul Singer who routinely bribe Tom Cotton and others to go against the values of their voters," Sasse concludes.

When asked by Deseret News national editor Hal Boyd about his potential appeal to Mormons and other groups of traditionally conservative voters disaffected by former President Trump, Sasse also stated, "If we are truly going to move this country forward with positive conservative leadership, we need to look less towards those who revel in celebrity and the seven deadly sins and more towards those with actual virtue and a rugged, individualistic spirit. I have great respect for the Latter-day Saints in this state, and the ethics and values they stand by are principles all Republicans should get behind". Gov. Ron DeSantis responded to Sasse, "If all we did was bend ourselves into perfectionist pretzel knots while the Democrats routinely make shortcuts to outduel and outclass us on the road to purgatory, as Ben Sasse has done all along in the Senate, we would have been stuck with Hillary Clinton as President. Donald Trump may have portrayed a rude New Yorker, but he played dirty to preserve the values of the Mormon people that Hillary Clinton would have sacrificed at the altar of cancel culture". However, in the end Sasse's applause appeared to be greater than DeSantis's, an unsurprising fact given the general apathy of Mormon voters with regards to Trump who struggled to capture this traditionally reliable demographic group for the GOP.

Not all of the controversies surrounded Sasse. Former Gov. Chris Christie also took heat from Sasse and others over what Cruz referred to as "failed promises to rein in corruption in New Jersey, which remained one of the worst places to do business in America at the end of his tenure as Governor". Most of the criticism surrounded his own indifference towards Trump, as well as the lane closure scandal at the George Washington Bridge in September 2013 that damaged Christie's 2016 presidential ambitions, with DeSantis quipping "If Chris Christie can't be trusted to be impartial in running the George Washington Bridge, how can we trust him to run the country as President?". Cruz also blasted Christie as a "sellout who sold his political soul to gain 30 pieces of silver from the mainstream media who did nothing but trash Donald Trump...By the way, the news media saw their ratings drop sharply after Trump left office...Guess that didn't work out so well, did it Chris?"

There were also disputes between Cruz and Cotton over the certification of the presidential election, Christie and DeSantis over the economic conditions of their respective states post-COVID as well as the same "loyalty tests" over Trump that Cruz lambasted the former over, and between DeSantis and Pompeo over defense spending and how to respond to aggressors like Iran. But none trumped the explosive fights involving Ben Sasse at three points in the debate. However, there were points of agreement between the candidates that drew applause. All of the three Senators on the stage - Cruz, Sasse and Cotton - also serve on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and all committed to nominating Supreme Court and other justices with conservative legal bonafides (with an eye towards replacements for venerable justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito), while all expressed a defense for Israel while varying on how to fund the Department of Defense in a future Republican administration. All six candidates on stage also committed to "standing up to China and their brutal regime", "keeping taxes low and balancing the budget", and "reducing abortions, increasing adoptions and defending the lives of the unborn without fail".

October 14, 2023
2ND UTAH GOP REVEAL DIVISIONS OVER TRUMP, ELECTION CONSPIRACIES
Those who were hoping that the second half of the Republicans' presidential debate at Maurice Abravanel Hall in Salt Lake City was more cordial were in for a disappointment, as the home of the Utah Symphony Orchestra saw witness to a crescendo of division over how best to handle the legacy of former President Donald Trump, as well as Trump's repeated obsession with the election being "stolen" and other controversies. Despite moderator and NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt's plea to "restrain yourselves", the six Republicans on stage - former Vice President Mike Pence, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sen. Marco Rubio, former Gov. Larry Hogan, conservative activist Candace Owens and businessman Mike Lindell - disregard the clarion call for discourse.

The biggest dispute emerged between Pence, Haley and Rubio over Donald Trump and how to handle his political base in the post-Trump era. All praised the former President as a net positive for the GOP, while at the same time subjected to criticism over key controversies that earned them the former President's brunt. When asked by Meet the Press host Chuck Todd about whether he still stands by his certification of Trump, Pence reiterated, "Of course I do. There was nothing that could be done to overturn the election regardless of what Trump stated, and frankly we haven't seen each other eye-to-eye from that point on". Lindell jumped in by accusing Pence of "abandoning his constitutional duty thinking he would make the problem go away, when in reality Pence sunk his battleship and threw his political dreams down the toilet".

Lindell, however, did commit a major gaffe when pressed by Salem Radio host and conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt about the veracity of his election fraud allegations. When pressed about sources who might be receptive to his claims, Lindell responded, "I'm sure Larry King would be receptive to anything related to this voter fraud," only to be stopped by Holt who said, "You're aware that Larry King died in 2021, shortly after Biden took office, right?" Lindell responded by saying, "Well, I'm not aware of that, I do know he was on late night TV a lot...I don't really watch much TV. I don't even watch Fox News." Social media erupts with amusement (and plenty of laughing emojis). Rubio responds, "He apparently has been sleeping so well he forgot to even double check his sources!"

When pressed by Meet the Press anchor Chuck Todd about how a stridently pro-Trump candidate like herself can appeal to Utah's halfway skeptical Mormon electorate, Owens replies, "The values shared by many Mormons are the same values shared by the Republican Party. I think that if voters looked past Trump's personality on the outside and looked at the issues on the inside, they would have known all along that Trump fought for them instead of looking at his obviously raw sense of being that no one liked right off the bat". Rubio responded by pointing out, "Values and character do matter as much as issues. It's not that Mormons don't care about the issues, it's that they want their values to actually mean something," pointing out that Trump's politically incorrect campaign style had no appeal to socially conservative LDS voters. Owens retorted, "Well the Democrats play dirty, so what are we supposed to do? Just shut up and pass a tax cut and hope it will magically solve our problems?" Rubio concluded, "No, just don't be a keyboard warrior".

Other key areas of contention included border security, in which Haley called out Rubio for being insufficiently biased towards "amnesty for illegal aliens", with Rubio responding, "If we chose to strictly take the path of isolationism when it comes to our immigrants, I wouldn't be welcomed here, and neither would Nikki Haley or Candace Owens," and on Hogan's own response to COVID-19, in which Hogan stated "if we have to face another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19, I'd be willing to take precautions the way that I did then", which led to boos from the crowd. Pence and Lindell also talked about the need for incentivizing American manufacturing, with Pence remarking, "If we are to truly make American manufacturing competitive, we must require China to pay the equivalent of the American minimum wage to their workers, and nothing less, and follow our climate rules," eliciting thunderous applause from the audience.

Overall, the two nights of debates conducted by NBC were met with a "meh" response. Despite getting slammed in the first night of debates, Sasse manages to gain some respect from LDS voters in Utah and others elsewhere for his desire to "stick to his values and principles", while Cruz's pre- and post-Trump 180 no longer comes across as "short memories", slightly hurting him in new polls. Lindell's gaffe appears to have weakened his poor polling numbers even further than they already were, with some new polls even showing Lindell failing to crack 1%. The rest of the divided GOP field remains relatively unchanged.

[SaintStan86]

No I haven't solved the Anselmo case, but I am uncovering some new evidence on the latest redistricting mysteries that remain...

In Alabama, the old 6-1 GOP status quo map has been reinstated and is unlikely to be challenged any further, so there will be one additional GOP seat to the forecast. That means Barry Moore and Mike Rogers can easily run for reelection and win instead of fighting each other, though I will not be shocked if this map gets a redo in 2024 since one of the rationales for maintaining the districts had to do with not wanting to disrupt the current election cycle. While I am not going to elaborate on the House going forward since some of the chess pieces are going to be a real wild card, in this TL, the districts will have been corrected by court order before campaign season begins with Barry Moore moving into CD03 and longtime incumbent Mike Rogers (who ascended to this seat after Bob Riley got elected Governor) retiring.

Meanwhile, Ohio Democrats have released their proposed map which dramatically alters the numbering pattern and puts Steve Chabot (all of Cincinnati and Hamilton County save for the affluent Indian Hill area in the northeast of the county) and Mike Carey (NW Columbus and Franklin County + half of Delaware County and a few other areas to the NW) in perilous districts, though I do think the former will win re-election in a tossup and the latter plan is very unlikely to pass muster since it would suck a lot of conservative constituents from Groveport to Canal Winchester in a district where their Republican votes are wasted. It also keeps Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta from facing each other, wraps Dave Joyce's district into all of suburban Cuyahoga County and creates an open Akron-to-Canton district.

However, I predict the map that does pass will look something closer to this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40. In this map, zeroing in on Cincinnati, the Dems' predicted district for Chabot will remain since between the Indian Hill area that trended away from the GOP under Trump (but still leaning Republican) and the vastly Republican northwest of Hamilton County (Colerain Township, Harrison), the latter area will be more necessary to give Chabot a chance of getting reelected; if Chabot were to do a 180 and suddenly retire, this district will be a top Democratic pickup where local Dems could possibly pressure former Cincinnati Mayor and current gubernatorial candidate John Cranley (who appears to be trailing Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley in recent polling and endorsements) to end his gubernatorial bid and run for Chabot's seat. The map may still look Republican-slanted on paper, but it's important to note that Ohio is a Republican-leaning swing state and if all of the districts that Trump won by 10 points or less (including several that voted for Sherrod Brown) went for Democrats, the Dems would likely have a majority in the state's congressional delegation.

The big story, however, is New York where the redistricting committee came up empty in the end, and passed the buck onto the Democrat-dominated legislature who promised "fair maps" when in reality they created an Illinois-style gerrymander that has left Republicans with four ruby red districts that otherwise could have been used to paint the upstate and Long Island almost entirely red (albeit with lighter shades of red). The map may look perilous for Republicans in the two open LI seats and Staten Island, but the Dem lean is not terribly bad and in this environment Republicans may actually prevail in a lot of the districts where Democrats won on average by 10 points or lower. In this TL, I do predict that Malliotakis will narrowly win reelection and Republicans will hold on to Zeldin's seat as Katko's seat in Syracuse will be the only one that flips blue. While Kathleen Rice in CD04 is now in a more competitive seat that narrowly favored Democrats in 2020, I'm not certain that George Santos in CD03 will pick up Suozzi's seat now (one of the Dems running is Mario Biaggi's granddaughter, State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi), so I'm going to flip this seat back to the Dems in this TL. I still predict that Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado will lose reelection since the likely situation IRL and in this TL is a Virginia-style swing from last year, though one of them will be making a comeback in this TL, for which I still have a surprise or two in store for this state coming up real soon.

Now, back to the TL, and a third, very pivotal Democratic debate...

[SaintStan86]

October 15, 2023
UNIVISION, ABC NEWS SET DEBATE FIELD FOR THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
On Univision's Al Punto, and also on ABC's This Week, respective moderators Jorge Ramos and George Stephanopoulos revealed the debate field for the third Democratic presidential debate, which will be televised on both networks with Univision serving as the primary host. The debate will take place from the The Colosseum at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, where Ramos and Stephanopoulos will be joined by ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir and Ted Pappageorge, President of the Culinary Workers Union, Local 226, whose union of more than 60,000 foodservice and hospitality workers - the largest in Nevada, including those at Las Vegas's hotels and casinos - is considered a must-win endorsement for Democrats.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE OCTOBER 17TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (Univision/ABC @ Las Vegas, NV)
Candidate	Avg. (10/15)	Poll A (10/11)	Poll B (10/6)	Poll C (10/1)	Poll D (9/26)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	32.8	33	31	34	33
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	26.0	28	25	26	25
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	16.3	15	18	16	19
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	5.8	4	6	6	7
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	4.8	5	5	5	4
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	4.5	5	5	4	4
Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)	2.3	2	1	3	3

Kamala Harris remains the Democratic frontrunner, but not by much as her weak performances in the first two debates have taken a toll on her campaign. Both Warren and Buttigieg have gained ground, with Warren now the leading candidate among progressives and economic-left candidates and Buttigieg taking a slight lead among moderates. Harris's sustained lead is in large part due to her strong support from African-American voters, a critical demographic bloc for the Democrats, though Warren has also attempted to blunt this advantage by "vowing to take" stronger stances on racial justice and voting rights. General election polls also start to show Harris at a disadvantage amongst potential nominees with Harris trailing DeSantis 48-42 in a poll that showed Warren and Buttigieg within the margin of error, for instance.

In addition to the aforementioned Culinary Workers Union, the debate is also being sponsored by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, and given these facts (as well as the debate being primarily carried on Univision) will largely focus on the issues of labor rights, healthcare, immigration, veterans' affairs and the economy, with Univision's Destino 2024 and ABC News's Your Voice, Your Vote 2024 branding being used simultaneously in a joint debate. The debate is also significant because it coincides with the de facto start of campaign season in Nevada - which on January 20th, 2024 will cast the first votes in the Democratic nominating sweepstakes.

Jorge Ramos: "Good evening and buenas noches everyone, I'm Jorge Ramos from Noticias Univision, joined by David Muir and George Stephanopoulos from ABC News and our special moderator for this evening, Ted Pappageorge from the Culinary Workers Union here in Las Vegas. We welcome you to tonight's Democratic presidential debate live from The Colosseum at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, where tonight seven Democratic candidates for President, including Vice President Kamala Harris, will speak before a packed audience of Democratic activists, union members and other guests to make the case for why they deserve to succeed President Biden in the next election..."

October 17, 2023
WARREN, HARRIS TRADE BARBS OVER UNION SUPPORT, RACE RELATIONS IN LAS VEGAS
Before a standing-room audience at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, Democrats sparred over two hours of debate on issues ranging from immigration reform to union politics in a debate sponsored by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute and Nevada's largest union, the Culinary Workers Union, whose endorsement in the upcoming Democratic primary could define an early frontrunner in a race where Vice President Kamala Harris has been the target of her opponents from the very beginning.

Leading the charge on Tuesday night was Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. The progressive firebrand, who has effectively taken up the left-socialist economic paradigm dominated by Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, vowed to "stand up for the rights of workers to unionize in support of higher wages and better working conditions" and called out Harris for "pandering to corporate interests who time and again have failed American workers and their families". She also called out Harris as "insufficiently biased towards protecting the corporate status quo", pointing to the Vice President's diversity initiatives that Warren argued "have done nothing to actually promote opportunities for minorities". Harris responded to Warren by calling the Senator's proposals "unrealistic", pointing out that Warren's hard-left economic and equity strategies would run into the wall of a "Republican congressional majority that will still be there even after we keep the White House". Harris also defended her diversity initiatives as "having succeeded in increasing opportunities for minorities and closing the racial gap for which progress is necessary to fully achieve economic stability for every American".

Moderator and Univision anchor Jorge Ramos also pressed Harris on the issue of racial equity brought up by Warren, "do you feel that American minorities are better off today than they were in 2020?". Harris responded, "We have made tremendous progress in moving our country past the divisive days of Donald Trump and the horrors of George Floyd, but there is still work to do when it comes to issues like educational equity in the classroom, police reform and other issues important to all minorities". Warren responded, "Obviously, Harris continues to spin in circles talking about the same racial equity talk she has made over the years, often with the excuse of 'I'm sorry we didn't do everything, but I promise to do it when this happens or that happens'." She also triggers an old social media trope when she proceeds along, "Being a minority myself in spirit, I know what it's like to give it your all and it still isn't good enough, but unlike Vice President Harris I will actually set it in stone", with conservatives alluding back to past controversies surrounding the veracity of her Native American ancestry that became a controversial talking point for conservative media hosts as well as Donald Trump during her 2020 presidential run.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis also drew attention in the debate for his response to a question by ABC News Good Morning America and This Week host George Stephanopoulos regarding immigration reform. Just as he did in the first debate, Polis responded, "The right thing for this nation, as we have said many times before, when it comes to immigrants who come to love our nation is to pass a comprehensive immigration reform plan that takes the uncertainty out of their lives and guarantees the dignity of their livelihoods". Polis then addresses the same question in what appears to be perfect Spanish to positive applause, "Los inmigrantes que llegaron a Estados Unidos en busca de una vida mejor y han formado familias han esperado demasiado. ¡Merecen tener ese sabor a ciudadanía, y yo seré el presidente para finalmente cumplir esa promesa!" Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also touched on the subject by bringing up the case of Roberto Beristain, whose deportation over a routine police traffic stop left his wife and children without their father and made him a national cause célèbre in 2017. "If we had a comprehensive pathway to citizenship that reduced our immigration backlog, secured our border and removed any uncertainty one may have had about their status, what happened to Roberto Beristain in my part of Indiana would never have happened."

Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also alluded to the need to reduce the number of regions dependent on one economy, pointing to Nevada's entertainment-centric economy. "When COVID-19 shut the world down, when banks came knocking on the doors of struggling families, Las Vegas was thrown into an economic tailspin worse than any other metro area in America". Raimondo drew applause for vowing "to form a commission that will work to develop economic equity strategies to diversify economies in regions that are prone to recessions, so that when a recession knocks us down, there are enough opportunities for families to fall back on to survive". Raimondo emphasized initiatives to incentivize job creation in healthcare and technology, vowing to use her private sector experience to "create new opportunities that will transform local economies and empower states and cities like Las Vegas to direct their own futures".

On healthcare, while Warren, Harris and Buttigieg all continued to advocate for their respective positions already stated in earlier debates, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper elaborated on veterans' healthcare issues. "Like Nevada with regards to Nellis AFB, North Carolina also is a veteran-friendly community, which makes me uniquely qualified to reform veterans' care issues in this country". Alluding to recent scandals involving the Department of Veterans Affairs, Cooper proclaimed that "no veteran should be forced to recover from war injuries or receive medical care in substandard facilities", pointing to some recent deaths at veterans affairs' hospitals and retirement homes as examples of "the horrible failure of our government to truly care for those who served with dignity and pride".

Overall, the Democratic debate was for the most part cordial save for the exchanges between Warren and Harris, with Warren's strong defense of organized labor further solidifying her support among progressives. However, on top of the revival of the controversial trope surrounding Warren's Native American ancestry links, establishment liberals begin to sound the alarm following the debate; while Harris does manage to maintain her top ranking in subsequent polls, many now consider the Democratic primary fight to be a dead heat.

[SaintStan86]

October 20, 2023
FOX BUSINESS SETS STAGE FOR FOURTH DEBATE
On Friday night, following the close of trading for the week, Fox Business announced the participants for its upcoming debate next Wednesday, October 25th in Omaha, Nebraska at the historic Orpheum Theatre in downtown Omaha, which will be co-hosted with the Wall Street Journal. Fox Business anchors Maria Bartiromo and Charles Payne will be joined by WSJ Editor-in-Chief Matt Murray as moderators for the debate, scheduled to commence at 8pm ET and exclusively broadcast on the business-oriented sibling of Fox News. Issues relating to the economy, the budget and the national debt are expected to be key issues brought up in the debate.

To qualify for the debate, candidates must score at least 2.5 percent on an average of the four most recent polls selected, have formally declared and registered a presidential campaign, and have an active campaign presence in all of the four early states. While all of the candidates certainly qualify for the latter two criteria, two candidates are left out of the debate because of weak polling:

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE OCTOBER 25TH PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (Fox Business @ Omaha, NE)
Candidate	Avg. (10/20)	Poll A (10/20)	Poll B (10/17)	Poll C (10/17)	Poll D (10/15)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	18.0	16	21	17	18
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	14.2	14	14	16	13
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	13.5	13	14	14	13
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	12.7	11	12	14	14
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	7.2	8	8	7	6
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	5.7	7	5	7	4
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	5.0	6	5	4	5
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	4.0	5	3	3	5
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	3.7	3	3	5	4
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.5	4	2	4	4
NOT PARTICIPATING
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) - below 2.5%	2.2	2	2	2	3
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN) - below 2.5%	1.25	1	1	1	2

While Gov. Ron DeSantis manages to maintain his overall lead despite a mediocre showing in the Salt Lake City debate, the battle for second place has become an all-out battle between Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ted Cruz, with Mike Pompeo and Sen. Ben Sasse continuing to rise and Sen. Marco Rubio holding steady. Candace Owens, whose base of support primarily comes from idealist young conservative influencers who came of age in the Trump era, has managed to maintain some clout despite her debate performances being met with varying degrees of controversy. Christie and Hogan have maintained their status as "safe" moderate choices, though a growing number of these votes have increasingly gravitated towards Haley largely due to her being perceived as the least Trumpian of the "Big Four" candidates.

However, notoriety doesn't necessarily guarantee a spot. While Tom Cotton's own campaign struggles and continuous competitive pressures led to him barely missing out on another debate, Lindell's disastrous performance two weeks prior in Salt Lake City, capped off by his gaffe in which he incorrectly thought that deceased talk show host Larry King was still alive, ends up costing him enough to push him out of the Omaha debate. In a post shared on Gab (an alternative social media platform that has become his primary social media home after being banned from other sources over his election fraud claims) following Fox Business's announcement of the participants, Lindell accuses Fox Business of "engaging in bias against my campaign after everything I have done to help them" (including becoming one of the primary commercial advertisers on Fox News's slate of opinion programs that lost other advertisers over controversies relating to Tucker Carlson's show and others), and retaliates by pulling all advertising from not only Fox Business but also Fox News Channel and Fox Nation. A Fox spokesperson brushes off Lindell's self-imposed boycott, citing "We have many other companies who are honored to advertise their brands on the most-watched non-sports basic cable network in the country".

The debate also generates question marks surrounding its location in Sasse's home state. Though his polling numbers have been quite good in Nebraska and in Iowa (where Sasse is regularly in the top five), his indifference towards Donald Trump continues to cast a pall over his campaign. However, Sasse has managed to develop a niche around a hard focus on the national debt, workforce readiness with regards to education and economic opportunities, prioritizing family-owned businesses and startups, and "starving the beast" - a collective strategy to downsize the federal government, all while deftly steering clear of his relations with Trump. While it has not necessarily vaulted him to the top, Sasse's campaign has gained traction amongst college students along with some young professionals, family farmers and those who were skeptical of Donald Trump but identify themselves as "independent conservatives". This has enabled Sasse to gain traction in the campaign, now competing with Mike Pompeo and Marco Rubio amongst the mid-tier of candidates.

All things considered, the RNC reassures its supporters that the decision to schedule the debate in Omaha has nothing to do with trying to appease Sasse in any way, with RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel stating on Fox News Sunday, "Clearly, Ben Sasse is a Republican and his voting record shows he is a solid conservative even if he chose to turn on President Trump. He's certainly in the wrong about Trump, but he's definitely no Adam Kinzinger." McDaniel also notes that Sasse was the first to sign the RNC's pledge not to appear on any non-RNC sanctioned debates or forums, notwithstanding Sasse's contrarian status on the issue of Trump; Sasse responded to this claim by citing, "One thing we can assure: the Republican nominee is going to be someone other than Donald Trump". One thing that hasn't changed: Gov. DeSantis, who happens to be the most pro-Trump of the "Big Four" but has for the most part charted his own course as Governor of Florida, remains the frontrunner amongst an otherwise unpredictable Republican field that has now segregated itself into three tiers - "frontrunners, mid-tier climbers and bottom feeders".

[SaintStan86]

October 25, 2023
REPUBLICANS SPAR OFF IN OMAHA DEBATE AS SASSE TAKES CENTER STAGE
Wednesday night's debate at the historic Orpheum Theatre in downtown Omaha, Nebraska was billed as a "golden opportunity" for Republican candidates to sell their economic and fiscal chops to a "Middle America" crowd, but the debate still had plenty of fireworks and veered into a culture war proxy fight as Nebraska's favorite son once again found himself in the spotlight, just mere days after a tough debate in Salt Lake City that could have derailed his candidacy instead made him a leading alternative choice for conservative contrarians looking for a clean break from the frenzied populist days of Donald Trump.

To no great surprise, the ovation Sen. Ben Sasse received at the debate was a relatively warm embrace, with some hecklers mixed in the crowd who may never forgive the Nebraska Senator for his vote to convict former President Trump in the second impeachment trial. When pressed about the issue by Sen. Ted Cruz (who himself drew scorn in the wake of the January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol for voting against certifying part of the electoral college), Sasse defended his position, "There is no doubt that Donald Trump's actions that day were dark and sinister. Now don't get me wrong, I agreed with and worked with Trump quite a lot when he was President, and we accomplished a lot of great things in his time as President, but at the end of the day, it's not worth tearing apart our collective fabric as a nation all because of people who weirdly treat Jesus as if he's interchangeable with Trump. We, the people of Nebraska, exist to elect a President, not a King, and any Republican who fails to recognize that constitutional FACT has lost their right to anoint themselves as a 'conservative'." Sasse's opponents chuckled through a mix of cheers and jeers from the audience, with Cruz quipping, "Ladies and gentlemen, let's give the Oscar for Best Actor to Ben Sasse for his role of pretending to think only he can be President" to the same mixture of cheers, jeers and laughter.

Turning back to the issues, Sasse put Pompeo on the spot with regards to his connection to Charles Koch, whom Pompeo denies has endorsed him despite Koch's appearance at his campaign kickoff in Koch's namesake arena at Wichita State University. "Of course I am not running to promote the interests of Koch Industries and Charles Koch, that's not a legitimate reason to run anyway," said Pompeo. Scrutiny over Pompeo's ties to Koch also drew attention from Nikki Haley who without calling his name proclaims, "As your President, I will not make decisions on defense spending that favor specific corporations or interest groups, something one of my opponents cannot guarantee".

Another issue that came up during the debate was the issue of "woke capital", brought up by moderator and Fox Business host Charles Payne before Mike Pence. Addressing the matter, Pence said, "There is no doubt that corporate America has been overtaken by a new guard of employees, indoctrinated by our college professors to promote a dangerous political utopia, that have the gall to undermine the traditions that made America great and are given the green light by shallow executives who are more concerned about profits than people, and that's why it's important to demand more of our universities when it comes to employer demands and career readiness...and hold to the fire those who wish to continue ignoring reality." Pence's comments drew wide applause from the audience.

The response, however, turned what was supposed to be a debate on the economy into a culture war proxy fight (if for nearly 20 minutes), as Nikki Haley rebutted to Pence by bringing up Indiana's Religious Freedom Restoration Act from 2015, "Whereas Mike Pence took a stand for the little guy, for religiously motivated businesses who wished not to sacrifice their beliefs at the altar of political correctness, he chose to cave when big business and the NCAA pulled their weight and swung hard against him, and now women's sports are being subjected to the guillotine". Pence responded, "I didn't cave to big business. I only streamlined the bill to make it more clear what we were protecting and not protecting because when we sought to protect companies like Hobby Lobby and Chick-fil-A from being silenced by woke mobs, we did not expect the PR firestorm that came with it. The changes we made didn't deny Christians of their freedoms as individuals and businesses, in fact we only strengthened those freedoms with the clarifications we did make".

Sasse chimed in, "Such courage from the man who abandoned Peyton Manning to appease a master," referring to when Pence prematurely left a Colts game where the legendary former Colts QB was having his number retired in response to a handful of 49ers players who kneeled during the national anthem, drawing praise from Trump. Pence also retorted to Sasse, "Well if I had to do it all over again, I would have waited to see his jersey hung in the rafters and then leave. That's the kind of courage I had when I voted to certify the results as protected in our Constitution, which I admit I didn't have at the time but would have if we actually got something done, which before the tax reform bill we passed was actually nothing". Cruz responded to Sasse again, "One thing I will say, boys: if I had to do it all over again, I'd do it for the Christian baker whose conscience deserves to be respected, and especially for the female college athlete who is told to settle for silver or risk being shunned".

Another notable moment emerged when Haley was asked by moderator Maria Bartiromo about a controversial op-ed by Candace Owens in which the latter berated college students as "lazy" and "pampered spoiled brats who are indoctrinated to hate America", and also singled out Haley's adult children, "Every time I see Nikki Haley's children and other politicians' kids who look all dressed up and stuffy, it makes me sick knowing that someone in Middle America, who has big dreams, too, is going to be tricked into thinking they have to go into debt, spend unnecessary money on designer clothes, go broke to join some elite sports or choir group, just to make it in this world," Haley responded by calling out Owens for choosing to zero in on her two children - one a nursing major, "My children are good kids, and so are everyone else's on this stage. Candace has no right to go on claiming my kids are privileged, especially given she herself is a college dropout whose degree was in journalism - which really is something we need more of with so many in debt because of throwaway degrees."

Owens retorted, "Ambassador Haley, with all due respect, I'm not saying your kids are privileged or better than others', I'm actually quite proud of your kids and their accomplishments. What I am saying is that one reason Americans are in debt is because they think the only way to thrive in America is to get a college degree, wear a bunch of expensive clothes that each cost more than a T-bone steak, and hang around the 'right people' like the 'preps' and 'jocks'. What about the kid in Youngstown who mostly shops at Walmart or Goodwill for clothes or would rather choose to play video games instead of throw a football? Or the kid with special needs who aspires to be a baker or even a Paralympic swimmer? Say what you will about Trump, but he gave those who aren't part of the 'in crowd' a reason to hope, and if COVID didn't take it away from them, Biden finished the job. They may not be perfect, but at least these outcasts still have their values and haven't sucked up to the stuck up woke crowd that wants to cancel whatever isn't fashionable or popular. Who knows? One of these outcasts may be the next Elon Musk or Steve Jobs or even Mark Zuckerberg." Haley responded, "Whatever floats your boat. Just don't cry about it when your followers are still in their parents' basement while my kids make it to the mountaintop.", with Owens closing, "OK, fair point. We'll see about that..."

Turning back to the heart of the debate, Gov. Ron DeSantis found himself in the crosshairs of his fellow Floridian, Sen. Marco Rubio, and Pence, when asked by moderator Matt Murray, editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal about the quality of Florida's economy in the post-COVID era. Responding to recent news about Florida's economic growth slowing in recent months as other states reopened their economies to the degree that Florida did under DeSantis (who was especially reluctant to restrict his economy during even the worst periods of the pandemic), the Governor responded, "Florida has always been faced with challenges before, and when our economy is facing unfavorable headwinds, we adapt to them quickly. In fact, because of Republicans like myself and Rick Scott, my predecessor, we have worked to make Florida the economic envy of the nation, and when Florida really had a bad recession, that was because of Scott's predecessor who chose to play it safe and take the money from Barack Obama instead of fight." Rubio responded by stating to DeSantis, "Leave my colleague out of this, just remember that you're lucky you didn't have to face him unlike both me and Rick", referring to Charlie Crist. DeSantis responded, "I would have rather beat him than Nikki Fried".

Pence also responded to DeSantis by pointing to the scope of Florida's economy, "The reason Florida's economy did better than everyone else's in the pandemic was because stuff like hotels, restaurants and other service jobs with low wages remained open where they were shut down everywhere else. The Florida economy revolves around tourists, tattoos and telemarketers. Indiana, by contrast, is a manufacturing powerhouse whose growth was stunted by supply chain issues caused by the Biden Administration. We make the steel they use to make airplanes, the cars they fill up at the airports near Disney World and in Miami, and the drugs retirees down there rely on. If we're going to bring back what made America great under Donald Trump, we should be building an economy built around the makers, not the takers as Joe Biden wants us to do. Because after all, that's all his employees did during COVID - going on vacation and Zooming in their bathing suits."

DeSantis responded, "Obviously, you've never heard of Jabil which provides manufacturing services to hundreds of companies around the world. Or UKG down by Fort Lauderdale. What about Raymond James in St. Petersburg? Or the many great hospitals like Advent Health near Orlando or Baptist Health in Miami. We even have a Mayo Clinic in Jacksonville. And our aerospace manufacturing base is second to none. And don't forget our agriculture sector - especially our delicious orange juice. After all, that's what you and so many others drink in the morning in Indiana. We've also been a right-to-work state far longer than yours has, only becoming one just before you became Governor, Vice President. Don't ever underestimate us, because we Floridians are tough and strong and rise to every challenge that comes at us." Pence concludes, "Nah, I'll stick to milk. Tastes sweeter especially at the Brickyard, anyway." Notably, DeSantis deftly ignores talking about major federal government employers, such as the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral and military bases including those in Tampa and Pensacola.

On other matters, former Gov. Larry Hogan stressed the need to prioritize tax breaks for retirees and "a robust infrastructure bill zeroed in on fixing our bridges and modernizing our power grid instead of giving kickbacks to unions and other Democratic donors who spoonfeed them," while former Gov. Chris Christie stressed the need for Republicans to "stay the course on the SALT cap, which I would have fought to keep knowing how much bureaucracy still exists in New Jersey after everything I tried to do to change it for the better" and Cruz called for tax incentives for those who take high-risk positions such as truckers and longshoremen, citing "If we're going to make jobs in logistics worthwhile, we need to focus on incentivizing those who work to deliver the goods Americans need". DeSantis also floated the possibility of taxing and regulating sports betting and online poker in all 50 states, while also steering clear of decriminalizing recreational marijuana, citing "The last thing our economy really needs is to get too high". All of the candidates vowed to audit the Federal Reserve, and all also vowed to rein in spending with most calling for a Balanced Budget Amendment. And when DeSantis vowed to rein in corn subsidies and repeal sugar tariffs at the same time, Sasse reminded him, "I'm all for it. I love cane sugar soda. Just remember that I have to deal with some very power hungry lobbyists who defend them."

[SaintStan86]

With the final debate before the 2023 elections in the books, including gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi (two of them much more important than the others) and the special election for the remainder of Mitch McConnell's unexpired Senate term in Kentucky, as well as the battle for control of the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates and the New Jersey General Assembly and some other local-level races including open mayoral races in Houston, Philadelphia and other major cities, here are some other stories that have happened in the interim while the candidates were debating to crowds in select cities and broadcast to audiences on TV...

• A group of pro-Russia militants firebombed a crowded nightclub in the Ukrainian city of Odessa, killing over 200 mostly young Ukrainians and injuring more than 350, with some of the killed and injured including some NATO military soldiers who were off the clock. The terrorist attacks are condemned globally, with President Biden "vowing to use every resource available to take out Vladimir Putin's cowardly regime" and benefit concerns held around the world to help with victims and their families' medical and funeral expenses. In a telephone call with Sean Hannity, former President Donald Trump condemned the attack, calling it "another failure of the Biden administration that could have been avoided if only we focused on tough negotiations and sanctions instead of putting our military in harm's way. Putin knows this because he doesn't fear Biden. When Republicans take back the White House, Putin is going to poop his pants so badly he won't even find the bathroom". He also tore into Biden on the domestic economy situation, pointing to lingering supply chain and inflation issues as well as the national debt.
• A scathing ABC News investigation revealed shocking conditions at veterans' affairs hospitals and nursing homes where patients were often left lingering in substandard conditions, including elderly veterans who were left to sit in unchanged adult diapers for days, amputees who were often forced to rely on themselves to do such tasks as changing the TV channel or even assistance for dressing, and patient rooms with unaddressed issues such as rodent infestations and backed up sewage, as well as repeated issues with TRICARE transitions that left many veterans forced to pay out of pocket for prescriptions and mental health counseling services. While not on the scale of the controversies surrounding the VA in 2007 and 2014, the controversy is enough to prompt a major investigation by the Republican-controlled Congress, with House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer issuing subpoenas to Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough and other senior VA officials.
• The VA scandal is far from the only controversy that has become cannon fodder for Biden administration investigations by Comer and his House Judiciary Committee counterpart, Jim Jordan (who is now running for the Senate in Ohio). Jordan has launched investigations into Attorney General Merrick Garland's probing into parents critical of school boards' COVID policies and curriculum strategies, allegations of spying into congressional offices and staffers without cause, and the handling of the immigration crisis at the southern border with Mexico, while Comer has held investigations relating to IRS information leaks, the handling of a terminated cloud-computing contract known as JEDI, and reports that the Department of Defense steered military recruits and soldiers into attending "sensitivity training" courses ahead of military readiness and weapons training exercises before heading to Afghanistan and Ukraine. The investigations, some of which even prompt networks to break into regular programming on cable news and even broadcast television, have heightened the profiles of both Comer and Jordan, with the latter receiving polling boosts in the Republican primary for his Senate campaign against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown.
• Federal judges have struck down Texas's overtly GOP congressional map, leading to slight changes to the state's congressional map. In particular, a third majority-minority district is drawn in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex to favor a Hispanic candidate of choice, while the 27th District of Michael Cloud is turned into another "fajita strip" district stretching down to McAllen - all of which are competitive to various degrees as Tejanos in South Texas moved sharply towards Trump and the GOP in the Trump era and have shown no signs of shifting back to the Democrats. In addition, the 32nd District in northeast Dallas is turned back into a swing district connecting traditionally Republican north Dallas and the Park Cities to purple suburban territory in far north Dallas and Richardson, while the Houston-area districts of Dan Crenshaw and Wesley Hunt both swap numbers with other nearby districts and Troy Nehls' 22nd is pushed further north into western Harris County, with the 22nd's historic base along the I-69 corridor from Sugar Land to Rosenberg merged into the heavily Republican 14th from Pearland to the western rural fringes of the Houston area, which is now an open seat as GOP incumbent Randy Weber has chosen to retire after six terms. The new map is still expected to favor the GOP, but it is now similar to Florida's also-heavily GOP map in that the map includes several districts that could go either way depending on whether or not one of the parties has a wave election.
  
• New York's Democratic gerrymander has also been tossed by a federal panel, in part due to judicial as well as legislative pressure from Republicans within that state legislature's reduced Democratic majority. Despite hopes of a 22-4 majority though, Democrats ended up underperforming under the weight of 2022's "red tsunami" as many of the new districts only narrowly voted for Biden or favored Democrats by narrow margins, leaving Democrats to gain only one seat in the Syracuse area vacated by a retiring Republican as the Dems' aggressive (and ultimately futile) attempt to cling to a majority in the House ended up turning into a dummymander. Long Island now has three competitive districts (2 held by Republicans and one held by a Democrat drawn out of the district), plus a 4th in southwest Nassau and the Rockaways that is now majority-minority. The new map also shores up Nicole Malliotakis (who beat back a strong Democratic challenge in the 11th last year), while consolidating all but many of the more affluent and conservative parts of Westchester County (specifically Rye, Valhalla and all points north) with a small portion of the Bronx in the new 16th and creating two new competitive seats in the northern fringes of the Lower Hudson Valley, both roughly separated by the Tappan Zee and the Hudson, as well as a restored open seat in part of the Twin Tiers that had been shoehorned into one seat in the Dems' now tossed out districts. The result is a map that still favors the Democrats, but with many of the districts in the upstate and suburban parts of the state now considered competitive to various degrees, save for seats in Buffalo, Albany, Rochester and the aforementioned south and central Westchester seat.

October 26, 2023
DEMS GATHER IN LEXINGTON TO BOOST FISCHER IN SENATE SPECIAL, GOV. BESHEAR FOR REELECTION
An all-star cast of Democrats gathered at Rupp Arena in Lexington on Thursday night to boost the campaign of Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer as polls showed a competitive battle between him and appointed former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who ascended to the seat following the retirement of former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Though Cameron has generally led in polling and is considered a rising star in Republican politics, Fischer has effectively closed the polling gap in recent polls, with the latest showing Cameron only leading Fischer by three points. Before a packed audience, former President Barack Obama fired up the crowd, "Greg Fischer is the fighter we need to stand up to the coercive and divisive agenda of those who wish to bring back Donald Trump in the disguise of another person. We cannot let that happen, and Kentucky is where the buck stops!"

Also joined by his wife and former First Lady Michelle Obama and former President Bill Clinton, as well as actress Ashley Judd (already a frequent guest at Rupp as a superfan of the Kentucky Wildcats men's basketball team), the rally also stars Gov. Andy Beshear who is locked in a tight battle for reelection against former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, who directly succeeded current presidential candidate Nikki Haley in that position. "As your Governor, we have made tremendous progress here in the Commonwealth, getting us through COVID-19, investing in our schools and our roads, and creating good-paying jobs for thousands of Kentuckians, and this is just the beginning!"

October 27, 2023
CRUZ SUPER PAC UNDER FIRE FOR CONTROVERSIAL CANDACE OWENS AD
The feud between Republican candidates Ted Cruz and Candace Owens over the latter's controversial smear of the former's daughter in the first Republican presidential debate boiled over into another controversy on Friday when a super PAC tied to Cruz's campaign, Reignite America PAC, aired an ad condemned as borderline racist for its sinister portrayal of Owens, who is Black, in unsourced photos taken during Owens' college years that appeared to show her partying and acting suggestively, set to the tune of rapper Missy Elliott's 2001 hit "Get Ur Freak On". A Cruz spox condemned the ad, arguing "Yes Candace certainly was in the wrong to bring up his daughter's social media life, but our campaign does not approve of this racist dog whistle and have called on the super PAC to drop the ad immediately." Owens also loudly condemned the ad, "Filthy and false ads like these are a big reason why many Blacks who wish to escape the Democrats' iron grip on them continue to remain in bondage to them. I will fight back against this divisive smear, and Ted Cruz doesn't know it yet but he is going to be in a hell raising time!"

Both camps are not the only one calling out the ad, which was mainly featured on digital platforms such as YouTube and targeted younger voters. The Queen of Rap herself, who is supporting Kamala Harris, was especially unimpressed, not only condemning the ad as racist, but also stating that she would never have endorsed "a man who is so crazy he not only tried to keep Kamala out of the White House, he can't even raise his daughter right". The ad, whose affiliated super PAC is linked to noted Houston social conservative activist and former Harris County GOP Chairman Jared Woodfill, nonetheless defends the ad which is eventually pulled from YouTube due to violations of the platform's terms and conditions for "hate speech".

October 29, 2023
TRUMP STUMPS FOR REPUBLICANS IN THREE-STATE BLITZ
In a weekend blitz across the South, former President Donald Trump stumped for all three gubernatorial nominees on the ballot in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, as Republicans aim to go "all in for a clean sweep" across all three states for the first time in history. The marquee matchup of the three was in Louisiana, where incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards is term-limited. On Saturday night at the Pontchartrain Center in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, Trump enthusiastically stumped for Attorney General Jeff Landry, calling the conservative Landry "a born fighter who will stand up to the Democrats and their divisive, hateful 'America Last, China First' agenda that works against the people of Louisiana who love their country." Also endorsed by U.S. Senator and Trump ally John Neely Kennedy, Landry prevailed out of the state's famous jungle primary on October 14th, where he outpolled Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser with 24 percent to the latter's 21 percent, with Nungesser being the more establishmentarian of the two high-profile Republicans; Nungesser's endorsement by the state's other U.S. Senator, Bill Cassidy, known infamously for his vote to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial, is believed to have been a factor in Nungesser's third-place finish which eliminated him from contention. Landry is now in a November 18th runoff against Democratic New Orleans attorney Caroline Fayard, who finished first in the primary with 32 percent of the vote after securing the lion's share of Democratic votes earlier in the month.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear is in a statistical dead heat with his Republican challenger, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, whose rally in Louisville on Saturday afternoon drew significant attention not only due to Trump's appearance but also that of Craft's predecessor as ambassador, Nikki Haley, who was joined on stage by Trump prior to Craft's introduction. Though both Trump and Haley reportedly had a falling out over the latter's comments about Trump in the wake of January 6th, 2021, the two acted as if nothing ever happened, with Haley citing, "It was nothing but a pleasant encounter. He was glad to see me, and we talked a lot about the campaign, and especially how Kelly Craft will do great things for Kentucky." Alluding to Craft's previous experience as U.S. Ambassador to Canada before succeeding Haley at the UN, Trump also called out Beshear for "having better relations with Justin Trudeau than with the hardworking people of his own state".

The third and last gubernatorial race is in Mississippi, where Trump stumped for incumbent Republican Tate Reeves at a rally in the Memphis suburb of Southaven. Unlike the other two gubernatorial races on the ballot this year, Reeves is widely expected to win reelection over his Democratic challenger, state Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a distant cousin of Elvis Presley who has run a competitive race in a state with the highest Black percentage in the nation, but has largely polled outside the margin of error in large part due to the unpopularity of the Biden administration in Mississippi. Other notable elections on the ballot include open mayoral seats in Houston and Philadelphia, among other cities, as well as control of both houses of the Virginia General Assembly with the likely possibility of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin being given full control of his state in next month's elections.

[One Term Floridian]

Great work on this TL! It feels quite real.

[SaintStan86]

November 5, 2023
ONE YEAR AWAY: WHERE DO THE CANDIDATES STAND?
Exactly one year from today, America will elect its 47th President in what many expect will be the most anticipated election in the history of the United States. With the country struggling to navigate through a post-COVID period where inflation, supply chain, border, economic, racial, cultural and moral challenges have taken hold on what has become the most diverse, dynamic and engaged electorate the country has ever witnessed. At this point, 12 Republicans and seven Democrats have descended on the opportunity to succeed Donald Trump and Joe Biden after what many anticipated would be a rematch never came to pass. Here, at this point, is where the candidates stand.

REPUBLICANS
With Trump having decided to pass on a bid to return to the White House despite continuing to insist his 2020 defeat was illegitimate, perhaps influenced by Joe Biden's decision to forego a second term and his own party having become more attuned to the sort of populist conservatism he championed in the better part of the last decade. While the vote of those who wish to return to a more establishment-friendly period before that golden escalator ride is a rather sizable one, even that vote has expressed support for conservatives who came of age in the Trump era, and among those candidates who wish for a clean break from Trump, the most conservative of that lot is polling the highest.

1. Ron DeSantis
From the beginning of polling, when Donald Trump was the big dog everyone hoped would chase after the Republican nomination bone, DeSantis led amongst the non-Trump minority and the Trump-less primary polls. With Trump out of the picture, DeSantis has maintained his lead, but only very slightly in a crowded field where three other candidates have been nipping at his lead. His base of support is largely concentrated amongst "Fox News conservatives", upper-middle class conservatives, and ardent devotees of Newt Gingrich and Ronald Reagan, as well as those whose first presidential choice would have been Trump. On top of being a respectable Republican governor of a traditional swing state who managed to win a hearty reelection on a staunchly conservative record, DeSantis has also been lauded for his steadfast devotion to his wife Casey during her fight with breast cancer. Though his numbers haven't necessarily been breakaway considering recent challenges navigating Florida's service-heavy economy in the post-COVID era (where a "return to normal" has come at the expense of Florida's rare status as a "refuge for freedom from lockdowns and mandates"), many argue that a Trump endorsement of anyone other than DeSantis would be "a YUGE mistake".

2. Mike Pence
The months after his vice presidency ended have been surprisingly successful for Pence, despite speculation that his vote to certify the presidential election for Joe Biden would prove fatal to his presidential ambitions. Indeed, many of Trump's more hardcore loyalists have never forgiven him for that vote. But Pence has been busy on the conservative speaker circuit, where his reception has been anything but cold. Pence is considered a leading candidate among social conservatives, and also leads among middle-class populists - a major constituency both in the Midwest and in manufacturing bastions. Call it luck, call it chance, but chances are his talk radio experience in the pre-congressional years (when he famously advertised himself as "Rush Limbaugh on decaf") may explain why his speaking engagements are hardly an "apology tour".

3. Ted Cruz
After getting knocked down over his defense of his vote to challenge parts of the 2020 presidential election results, as well as his often unpredictable teenage daughter's TikTok posts, the Texas Senator has decided to go all-in on the White House. Holding a narrow lead among Hispanics and tying with Pence among social conservatives, Cruz's case for the presidency has largely centered around having one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate, as well his strong support for Trump since he endorsed him in 2016, albeit coming with controversy as Cruz had been subjected to brutal attacks from the Trump camp in the 2016 primary. While some argue Cruz still has it, many wonder whether or not Cruz has the chops to stand his own ground instead of balking in Trump's shadow, with one pundit stating, "It's fair to say this isn't the Ted Cruz who came on in 2016 as a fresh face". His main threat comes from Pence in the early states, but the ultimate threat may very well be Trump's endorsement should it not go to Cruz.

4. Nikki Haley
The former Ambassador's appearance with Trump in Kentucky came across as a surprise to many, as her deftness in avoiding Trump without attempting to chafe his base has not been without controversy. While this has made her the leading candidate amongst Trump skeptics in Republican polls, at the same time it hasn't delivered her the sort of assurances from Trump's loyalists who view her as somewhat of an apostate. Another concern may be Haley's more hawkish foreign policy stylings, particularly her unquestioned support for Israel, which now seems like more of a throwback to the George W. Bush years at a time when Republicans have been drifting back to its more traditional realist stance on foreign policy, which stresses a relatively noninterventionist, diplomatic tone, as well as reverence to Reagan's "peace through strength" strategy. Still, Haley does maintain a degree of stability amongst certain Trump groups, with rumored reports that one particular member of the family has been more receptive than not.

5. Mike Pompeo
Despite his late entry which forbade him from the first debate in August, the former Secretary of State has distinguished himself as an unquestioned critic of overseas autocracies in China and elsewhere, as well as a reliable voice for boosting American manufacturing - a field quite familiar to Pompeo as the former Congressman for the Wichita area in the pre-Trump days. While he still has a ways to go to reach the top echelons of the Republican field, Pompeo isn't giving up, and some have even speculated that his bid for the White House could also double as an audition to gain back his old job in a future Republican administration. But Pompeo insists that's not the reason he's running - "I believe the American people deserve someone who is determined to rise up to the occasion, someone who is ready to meet our country's challenges, foreign and domestic, from day one".

6. Ben Sasse
When Time magazine penned the article "The Curious Case of Ben Sasse", the title was more than enough to sum up the article. The conservative iconoclast has become known for his irreverent train of thought, his egalitarian sense of family, but most especially his outspoken skepticism of the former President. Indeed, amongst those Republican voters seeking a clean break from the Trump years choosing a Trump skeptic, Sasse dominates amongst conservatives in this niche category. While his vote to convict Trump on the second impeachment trial for "incitement of insurrection" has made him persona non grata in Trump's inner sanctum, it has also given Sasse free rein to experiment. Though it is widely expected that Sasse's appeal outside of his immediate area could very well be limited, he has attracted a reliable base of college students, stalwart fiscal conservatives, small-town farmers cultivating in the shadows of corporate fields and hardcore traditionalists who seek "a simpler kind of conservative". But no matter what happens, the story of the Sasse campaign could very well be worthy of a movie script.

7. Marco Rubio
Many have questioned as to why the senior Senator from Florida is even running for President in the shadow of his state's rock star Governor. But at the same time, while Rubio's voting record does fall on the conservative end, some may attribute it to two GOP issue blocs that were once prominent but now suspect in the age of Trump. A son of Cuban immigrants who rose to fame when he became a Tea Party favorite against the state's more establishmentarian Governor (who later left the GOP, ran against Rubio as an independent and later became a Democrat), Rubio cultivates his support from those who wish for a return to the sort of hawkish foreign policy that permeated his party when Rubio rose to become state House Speaker and later a conservative newcomer in the Senate. He also remains outspoken as a champion of comprehensive immigration reform, not unlike the sort of policy George W. Bush promoted in his heyday but which made him a source or ridicule from Trump and other critics of the party's since marginalized neoconservative wing. No doubt Rubio has the chops to be President, but he could very well be the wrong candidate at the right time.

8. Larry Hogan
The first candidate in the race for President, Hogan's decision to enter came before Trump made his decision, banking on strong support from "Never Trumpers" to make his race one that offered a true alternative to the former President. With Trump no longer in the picture and the campaign now revolving around Hogan's case for "a more reasonable Republican brand built around 'common sense solutions' and 'bipartisan leadership that puts people first'", Hogan has had to contend with other candidates with a record considered more appealing than the sort of "moderate Republicanism" that many attribute to Hogan's campaign. But Hogan also points to sizable support among moderate voters in a number of blue states, and many attribute his campaign struggles to Nikki Haley's effective appeals to more moderate voters, for whom wanting to move on from Trump means nominating a "recovering Trumper" who can appeal to both groups at the same time versus backing up the truck and dumping Trump altogether.

9. Candace Owens
Once a liberal who hated Trump and conservatives in general, Owens has since become an outspoken Black conservative voice known for the sort of outlandish commentaries typical of herself and others associated with Turning Point USA, the right-wing college conservative organization whose leaders have become bold and brave in the conservative speakers' circuit - one of them, Anna Paulina Luna, is even now serving in Congress herself from Florida. Though most Trump supporters still prefer candidates who have worked with Trump in the White House or Capitol Hill, Owens' unabashed oratory gifts have endeared her to a number of far-right niche groups, including the Groypers who often refer to her as "the Grand Dame" in their alt-right social media circles. But most conservative youth have grown up since that golden escalator ride, gotten married and have had children, as Owens has herself, and some critics wonder if Owens' support base - many of whom were known to mock "liberals still living in their parents' basement" - has become "a walking contradiction".

10. Chris Christie
Ever since the events of that bloody Wednesday in Washington nearly three years prior, the pugnacious former New Jersey Governor has not fully broken away from Trump, but has become quite outspoken in criticizing Trump where necessary. But on top of more popular competition with their own sizable fan clubs and voters still unnerved by Christie's fall from grace after Bridgegate, some wonder if the moment has passed for Christie to make it to the White House. Many argue that this is his last chance to achieve that dream for all immortality, but if Christie is determined to "tell it like it is", then to each their own as some would say. Overall, many put Christie in the moderate wing of the Republican field, where most are favoring Nikki Haley anyway and those who wish to move on from Trump would rather favor Larry Hogan, and despite lofty ambitions it is fair to say that it won't be a great surprise if Christie were to drop out after New Hampshire - as did happen in 2016.

11. Tom Cotton
He's got the right pedigree - the small-town "local boy done right", former high school athlete, Ivy League grad, big city consultant and veteran who could have gone anywhere but chose to come home to Arkansas and serve his constituents - a true Mr. Smith Goes to Washington story. But why is going so badly as it seems for Sen. Cotton? Some attribute this to his weak polling numbers in a field dominated by bigger Republican stars, while others chalk it up to controversy surrounding one of his top fundraisers in Paul Singer. Still, some argue that his hawkish foreign policy views, and competition from Nikki Haley in this regard, may be the issue. There are even some who say his vote to certify the 2020 election for Biden may have hurt him as well. But Cotton is undeterred despite missing his second debate in four tries, and the Senator has indicated he has "a big surprise" in store after the 2023 elections. In a town hall he hosted in lieu of his snubbed debate appearance, Cotton reminded his supporters, "We are getting stronger by the day, and I think you'll be very happy to hear the great news coming up just before Christmas!"

12. Mike Lindell
Being an outsider with no political or military experience worked very well for Donald Trump. So how is it going wrong for Mike Lindell? While some may attribute this to his ever-increasing social media echo chamber, especially after his repeated conspiracies surrounding the 2020 election led to his ouster from the mainstream of social media, the proof of Lindell's own weak standing may be in the pudding of the four debates held so far. The only notable moments of his campaign so far? Being endorsed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and not even knowing that Larry King was dead in the third debate, which undoubtedly dealt a major blow to his campaign. Now having self-segregated himself from the Fox News media circuit, instead choosing to invest on Newsmax and other, much smaller conservative news outlets, many are already writing the obituary of Lindell's campaign, with Lindell even speculated to potentially jump ship to the Constitution Party.

DEMOCRATS
Regardless of what one may have thought how Joe Biden's chances of reelection, many often viewed Biden's decision to retire instead as a "worst kept secret". One thing that hasn't changed is the thought that this primary has been Kamala Harris's to lose. But it has been anything but a cupcake party for the Vice President, as the rise of other candidates at her expense has been sudden and surprising. Harris still leads the pack, but for how long?

1. Kamala Harris
Vice President Harris, despite some early squabbles and declines in support from hard progressives and moderates alike, remains the frontrunner in no small part due to her dominant support among African Americans, for whom she is the only candidate out of this important Democratic voting bloc. Though many question whether or not Harris is the right candidate for the Democrats to run in 2024, Harris has worked on "fine tuning" her campaign in the wake of the Las Vegas debate, redoubling her stances on a "Green New Deal" and "Medicare for All" to compete for progressive votes otherwise being lost to...

2. Elizabeth Warren
The leading progressive insurgent in the Democratic field, Warren's unabashed left-populist economic stances have endeared her to those who backed Bernie Sanders in the last two Democratic primaries; while the Our Revolution group has yet to make an official endorsement, it is widely expected that an endorsement for any candidate other than Warren will be seen as a major surprise. But question marks still surround Warren's candidacy, particularly whether or not the sort of hard-left economic messaging is going to be appealing to core Democratic voters and the general public in November. Warren defends her campaign strategy by pointing to polls where she has made inroads with blue-collar Trump voters in the Rust Belt, but for now the dream of a "socialist revolution" in America is exactly that.

3. Pete Buttigieg
Slotting himself between the more corporatist liberal Harris and socialist-tinged Warren, Buttigieg has slotted his campaign in the middle lane. He has adopted the Zedd/Maren Morris song "The Middle" as his campaign song, a far cry from the toughman approach he took when he played to a dubbing of Queen that landed him in hot water with Domino's Pizza. Asides from being an outspoken moderate that can appeal to the "Stuff White People Like" crowd, another constant in the Buttigieg camp has been the unflinching support of fellow Hoosier David Letterman, who has appeared in TV ads for Buttigieg, and without Paul Shaffer in tow. But Buttigieg's record as Transportation Secretary, as well as South Bend Mayor, remains a mystery to the general public, and many wonder if Buttigieg really is "fit for the job of President".

4. Jared Polis
Nipping away at Buttigieg's moderate persona is someone who actually ascended to the Governor's Mansion. The Colorado Governor has more or less governed in the same mold as his left-libertarian predecessor, current U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper. Like Buttigieg, Polis is also openly gay and married to his husband with children. But Polis, much like a certain Colorado Democrat from a different era, has also proven to be quite the technocrat in office, and his focus on environmental stewardship has also endeared him to a critical group of Democratic voters fixated on the issue of climate change. While Polis has made great strides in this campaign, he still has a long way to go before cracking into the Democrats' top tier.

5. Amy Klobuchar
The Minnesota Senator had the choice to continue her long service to the state in a bid for a fourth term or end it with a moonshot at the presidency, something she undertook the last go-round. Klobuchar chose the latter, and much like the first time has been seen as an underdog. A "midwestern Moderate" with liberal chops, Klobuchar has stressed the importance of "common sense progressive leadership" with broad appeal to various demographic groups, especially at a time when Democrats find themselves dealing with how to quell the anger of more idealist insurgents desiring a Democratic version of the rightist lurch that proved successful for Republicans in the last few decades. But lacking the flash of other candidates, Klobuchar's second act remains a mystery even to active Democratic voters.

6. Roy Cooper
After drawing fire from the left wing of the women's rights debate for his noncommittal to the sort of "abortion is healthcare" idealism championed by Planned Parenthood, Cooper has since managed to double his polling and build a base of support among moderates seeking a competent swing-state Democrat with a track record of winning in Trump Country. The only Democratic candidate from the South, an "Old South" down-home campaign style coupled with a "New South" record of dynamic progress has enabled Cooper to cross 10 percent in South Carolina, and he has indicated a full commitment to continue through at least the first Super Tuesday - which will largely be held in the South. The main problem? Much of the electorate in the South, especially outside of Black voters, has shifted enough to where a white Southern Democrat - provided Harris doesn't continued to slide - may have to be more dependent on excommunicated Republicans for votes, as many of the old-school Southern Democrats who backed Clinton in the 90s have either died off or flipped to the GOP.

7. Gina Raimondo
Many often argue why Gina Raimondo is even a candidate to begin with. Effectively viewed as the "Chris Christie of the Democratic Party", Raimondo had an unpopular tenure as Governor before COVID-19 took its grip on America, and it may have been a blessing in disguise as Raimondo's popularity soared during the pandemic, culminating in her appointment as Commerce Secretary. With the pandemic now in the rear-view mirror, Raimondo has effectively been left without much to do in the name of "how to jump-start the American Dream for so many who lost it". While her Wall Street background does give her credibility and a base of Democratic donors to rely on, a "New Democrat" in the mold of Bill Clinton has become somewhat of a "throwback candidacy", and with the emerging Democratic base being more progressive and anti-establishment, not to mention most of the liberal voters that would have backed Raimondo sticking with the "real thing" in Kamala Harris, Raimondo's candidacy is viewed as nothing more than a bid for a bigger prize in a future Democratic administration - be it Vice President, or at least a bigger Cabinet prize besides Commerce Secretary.