2024 - A Blank Canvas (user search)
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April 29, 2024, 07:23:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2024 - A Blank Canvas (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 - A Blank Canvas  (Read 29510 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2022, 04:54:02 AM »

DeSantis will be one-term President should he win in this TL if he packs the Courts. Any Court-Packing should be a NO-GO for a Republican. He would never get such a Proposal through the Senate.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2022, 09:08:25 PM »

With the Conventions now over we need an Electoral Map!
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2022, 09:41:07 PM »

President Biden & Vice President Harris are two Cowards by not responding to this devastating unhinged Ad.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2022, 07:00:55 PM »

I don't feel good about DeSantis chances! Hopefully the polling snaps back into the Republican favour.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #29 on: August 13, 2022, 05:21:50 PM »

Looking at this Presidential Map I think this will all boil down to Pennsylvania. I think Harris takes Wisconsin & that 2nd District in Nebraska, DeSantis will take Georgia making it 268-251 and PA decides it.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #30 on: August 15, 2022, 12:09:37 PM »

Looks like DeSantis has regained the Momentum and that Default & War certainly did not help Harris.

The unknown is Andrew Yang which will make a lot of States a lot closer on both Sides.

If DeSantis wins it is my hope that he commits selecting 50 % of his Cabinet with Women.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #31 on: August 17, 2022, 05:27:42 PM »

Good thread and it appears that Ron DeSantis will likely cruise to a resounding victory! Imagine if California goes for DeSantis and Harris support in the Golden state is middling at best! Could Kevin McCarthy's undervote catapult DeSantis to a lead! Especially with support in DeSantis in Orange County and the Inland Empire be a tipping point? It will be interesting to see how the election unfolds. Bet Harris is probably wishing that the Reno debate never occurred.
One caveat that should be included regarding Harris and the fact she never competed against a Republican in California. She didn't even poll well in the state in the lead up to the primaries in 2020, compelling her to withdraw. She comes across as a tad too toxic and something tells that doesn't wear too well and I could imagine, if it's between DeSantis and Harris in California, DeSantis could possibly win in California. It would be an interesting development in the storyline.
This will potentially similar to Obama 2008 but now in reverse with DeSantis probably winning between 330-350 Electoral College Votes.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #32 on: August 18, 2022, 02:27:49 PM »

Let's see some more Exit Polls first but my Prediction at 7pm ET when we have the first Statewide Poll Closings is as follows:

Kentucky called for DeSantis (8 Electoral Votes)
Indiana called for DeSantis (11 Electoral Votes)
South Carolina [Nikki Haleys Home State] called for DeSantis (9 Electoral Votes)
Vermont called for Harris (3 Electoral Votes)
Virginia (13 Electoral Votes) as surprising as it is since everyone assumed it would go Democratic again after Obama won it twice as well as Clinton & Biden - TOO CLOSE TO CALL (DeSantis chances depend on the NoVa Suburbs; Still think Harris might win in a squeaker; She has to win there if she wants to have any chance at all)
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes) TOO EARLY TO CALL; depends on the AA-Vote if Harris has a chance there

DeSantis 28 / Harris 3

Senate
Indiana - called for Mike Brown (Republican Hold)
Virginia - TOO EARLY TO CALL (Kaine vs Vogel; I think Kaine will do better than Harris particularly in the Richmond Suburbs)
Vermont - TOO EARLY TO CALL (3-way Race)

Republicans 44 / Democrats 25

@SaintStan86,
Great to see that you are doing a little bit of an Homage to Wolf Blitzer and play tribute to him.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #33 on: August 18, 2022, 09:38:26 PM »

Vermont is a big surprise but then few expected Andrew Yang polling 8-9 % there. I still think Vice President Harris is going to win that State eventually.

However this doesn't bode very well for her next next door in New Hampshire. If you extrapolate the Results out of Vermont Governor DeSantis should be favoured winning the Granite States' 4 Electoral Votes.

No call in Virginia in either the Presidential Race or Senate Race where Biden & Warner won by 10 Points in 2020 could also mean trouble for the Harris Campaign.

Ohio and North Carolina are fascinating. I initially thought Jim Jordan might be too conservative for the State while Senator Sherrod Brown is too liberal. Looks like they both cancelling each other out making the contest a Toss Up.
In North Carolina you have an African-American Woman (Harris) running atop the States' Democratic Ticket while on Republican Side you have an African American Man (Robinson) running for Governor. Different State Dynamics in play here which is equally as fascinating as Ohio is.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2022, 09:11:24 PM »

Looking at North Carolina (Mecklenburg & Wake Counties) and Georgia (Cobb and Gwinnett) if those Numbers spill over into Loudoun & Prince William Counties in Northern Virginia DeSantis has a very good chance carrying the Commonwealth of Virginia effectivly putting the Presidential Race away. While Harris will probably carry Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria it will not be by the same margin Biden beat Trump in 2020. Loudoun & Prince William haven't gone Republican since George W. Bush in 2004.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2022, 01:27:10 PM »

So DeSantis is at 156 Harris at 56

If we go by conventional wisdom and give DeSantis Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (4) and Utah (6) that puts DeSantis at 173.

If you then give him Texas (40), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16) where he is leading that brings him to 245 Electoral Votes just 25 short of the Presidency.

Given the Trends (Counties) in other States we have already seen you would think he wins Virginia (13) and New Hampshire (4) he gets to 262.

That means he only needs one other State: Wisconsin (10) would do it, Minnesota (10) would do it, Michigan (15) or Arizona (11). He doesn't even need to win Pennsylvania or those blue bastions like Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14) or Delaware (3).
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2022, 03:54:29 PM »

CNN is probably very smart holding off calls in Georgia, North Carolina & Virginia for now. DeSantis should get Montana & Utah in the 10pm Hour as Instant Calls.

This could be a very long Night for the Democrats.

DeSantis being so competitive in traditional Democratic States bodes well for the vulnerable Republicans running in California in their House Seats. While Harris will certainly win her Home State and Kevin McCarthy the Senate Race all the vulnerable GOPers could be reelected like Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Ken Calvert.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2022, 02:30:00 PM »

What is puzzling, is if DeSantis is polling so well in the WOW counties in Wisconsin, why is Wisconsin still outstanding! All of the so called "Blue wall" state's, are quiet as church mice, nothing so much as a peep! If either Georgia and North Carolina were to be called, I thought it would be North Carolina first, but considering the Governor's race there is a factor, then I can imagine that North Carolina probably won't be called until we have a winner in the Governor's contest, which means probably somewhere ìn the a.m. hour's
I think the Question is now if Republicans can get to 60 Senate Seats.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2022, 06:00:38 PM »

I'm beginning to suspect that the reason why Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are not being called is that Harris is gonna win them in a squeaker, win the electoral vote, but lose the popular vote! She wins in a 270-268 vote, but has no mandate and DeSantis waits until 2028 for a rematch and Harris becomes a lame-duck,  a female version of Jimmy Carter if you will. Then Harris loses in a landslide in 2028. I could be wrong, but considering the fact that there has been virtually no movement on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that has to be an outcome being considered. DeSantis in "losing", becomes the leading contender for the GOP nomination in '28. This way, the writer's extend the storyline a bit longer.
It's virtually impossible to get Vice President Harris to 270 Electoral College Votes.

DeSantis sits at 222. Add 3 from Alaska makes it 225, add four more from Idaho and he is at 229, add Nebraska-2 he is at 230. If he wins North Carolina, which I think will be called after 11pm ET, that gets him to 246. At that Point he only needs Pennsylvania (19) and Iowa (6) and he is at 271.
Or he does PA (19) and New Hampshire (4) which gets him to 269 and the House hands the Presidency to him.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2022, 08:30:21 PM »

Unless they find some kind of Magic Boxes in Madison & Milwaukee Harris has lost Wisconsin, a State she needed to have having lost Georgia earlier in the Night.

Michigan is still TOO EARLY TO CALL and with Gary Peters on the Ticket Harris & Whitmer might win in a squeaker. Still, I am surprised how competitive DeSantis is in that State.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #40 on: August 22, 2022, 12:55:22 PM »

President Stanton,
If you look at the County-by-County Map SaintStan86 has provided during this Election Night you see that DeSantis has vastly outrun Trump from 2020 EVEN in those Counties that Harris won.

The Presidential Race will likely be called between 11pm and 1am ET in favour of DeSantis.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #41 on: August 22, 2022, 03:31:04 PM »

Mike Gallagher beating Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin was a HUGE, HUGE call for Senate Republicans. It means Republicans are now at 55 Senate Seats.

In VA Vogel is leading Kaine with almost all of the Vote in.
In NJ Öz is leading Menendez with only a fraction of the Vote left.
In OH Jim Jordan is leading Sherrod Brown with most of the Vote in.

That would get them to 58 if they manage to win these Races.

Then they only need 2 out of Minnesota, Montana, Washington State, New Mexico & Arizona since Michigan, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Vermont and Maine will likely go Demoratic.

I am going on a limp and say they will get there, to 60 Seats that is.

And one thing I would recommend Governor DeSantis assuming he gets those Final 21 Electoral Votes: Select John H Sununu or Andrew Card to head your Transition Team. Those would be my choices. Sununu & Card know how to put an Administration together.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #42 on: August 22, 2022, 04:32:03 PM »

Should DeSantis prevail, as is likely the case, he's likely to carry not only Minnesota (the first Republican to do so since Nixon did so in 1972!), and carrying Virginia, the first since George W. Bush in 2004. The fact he's already carried New Hampshire the first Republican to do so since Bush in 2000. On the Senate side of the ledger, it appears that James, Jordan, McCormick, Oz and Vogel, there is a strong possibility that Republican's could get 60 seats or more, the first time that this would occur since the 1920s. DeSantis will be the first Republican since Bush to win the popular vote, something Trump couldn't do. DeSantis could have the following distinctions of being the first Republican since Nixon to carry the entire Midwest in '72, that is if Harris manages to lose Illinois; Pritzker didn't hold out much hope. Anyway Harris should she lose, would share the unhappy distinction of being the fourth Vice president since 1960 to fail in getting promoted to the top job. Nixon was the first, Humphrey in 1968, and Gore in 2000. Other stats regarding DeSantis who at 46 is he'll be the youngest president since Bill Clinton in '92, he will the third Catholic following Kennedy and Biden to win the presidency, the first Floridian and the first Italian American. As regards the transition, I thought that the party nominee's designated their Transition chief's after the Conventions. But picking either Sununu or Card would be inspired choices. Ron might consider placing Bolton at State, Robert O'Brien at the Pentagon and Jamie Dimon at Treasury.
I think Kayleigh McEnany gets her old gig as Press Secretary back, Christina Pushaw gets to be the White House Communications Director (the role Kate Bedingfield currently has in the Biden WH) and Rep. Byron Donalds will be DeSantis' WH CoS. Senator Marco Rubio gets Secretary of State and Senator Tom Cotton gets Secretary of Defense I think.

In case you can't remember: Then President-elect Barack Obama after winning in 2008 selected John Podesta to head his Transition Team BUT selected Rahm Emmanuel as WH CoS. So, they do differ.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #43 on: August 22, 2022, 06:34:16 PM »

Congratulations to President-elect Ron DeSantis. And also Nikki Haley, the Daughter of Indian Immigrants who becomes the first Republican Woman elected as Vice President of the United States.
I am sure she gives a rousing Introduction to the Florida Governor and my guess is that Senator Rubio & Scott will be there too.

Ron DeSantis Election to the Presidency also means his Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez will become Florida's first Female Governor and the first of Cuban disent. Quite a lot of firsts here Wink

There is still a lot of real-estate to be decided. Delaware, Connecticut and the Overall State of Maine + the 1st District has not been decided. New Jersey & Pennsylvania are still not decided as are Illinois and Michigan.

And in the West Washington, Oregon, Arizona and New Mexico are still out.

Wouldn't it be something if Andrew Yang takes the 4 Electoral Votes from Hawaii. I doubt it but who knows on this Night.

The Minnesota Call for DeSantis probably bodes well for Michelle Tafoya in the Senate Race I think.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2022, 08:08:09 PM »

President Stanton,
Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio are pretty much on the same Page when it comes to Foreign Policy.
Foreign Credentials are one of the big reasons why DeSantis selected her.

We did not see much of her during this Campaign but I am sure she hammered home the China Message in the waning Days of this Campaign.

While I agree with you that DeSantis doesn't want to have anything to do with Trump going forward he could select Ivanka Trump as UN Ambassador. Just a nice gesture to the Trump Family.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2022, 09:43:04 PM »

By my calculations that puts him at 420 electoral votes, nearly as much as the 426 that G.H.W. Bush won in 1988. We'll see If Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington State all break voting habits that has lasted over a quarter of a century! Plausible. I bet Kamala Harris is in a bad place right now. Democrats are likely going to into an extender period of soul searching and will need to exorcise their 'woke' addiction and send their progressives to the showers. Someone like Andy Beshear is someone they should seriously consider looking at.
I wonder if Washington State does Ticket Splitting with Harris winning the States 12 Electoral Votes and Cathy McMorris-Rogers takes the Senate Seat. She is a very strong Recruit.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #46 on: August 22, 2022, 10:14:58 PM »

By my calculations that puts him at 420 electoral votes, nearly as much as the 426 that G.H.W. Bush won in 1988. We'll see If Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington State all break voting habits that has lasted over a quarter of a century! Plausible. I bet Kamala Harris is in a bad place right now. Democrats are likely going to into an extender period of soul searching and will need to exorcise their 'woke' addiction and send their progressives to the showers. Someone like Andy Beshear is someone they should seriously consider looking at.
I wonder if Washington State does Ticket Splitting with Harris winning the States 12 Electoral Votes and Cathy McMorris-Rogers takes the Senate Seat. She is a very strong Recruit.

Again, I think since this an R nut timeline, DeSantis is going to sweep everything remaining.
How many D nut TL's did you wrote? You have no right to critizize this TL considering how many Woke TL's you wrote.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #47 on: August 23, 2022, 04:35:10 PM »

Gracious Concession Speech by Vice President Harris.

It looks like even if Casey survives in PA Republicans are favoured to get 60 Senate Seats.

I also have to say this: NBC Universal, are you listening? What particularly Alex Wagner did is absolutely appaling. That Women should be fired, her contract terminated immediatedly. This has no place whatsoever on National TV.

Ron DeSantis hasn't stepped even one foot in the WH and they already start the fear-mongering and attacks.

Looking forward to his Victory Speech with Running Mate Haley probably introducing him.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #48 on: August 25, 2022, 07:39:15 AM »

Some thoughts

# 1 It was a really good Victory Speech by President-elect Ron DeSantis. He called for UNITY which is very important.

# 2 Phenomenal Decision to select Mick Mulvaney & Andy Card to head his Transition Team. These two guys kinda knew what they are doing.

# 3 The next calls are likely to come from New Jersey, Connecticut and possibly Illinois at the Presidential Level. A little bit surprising to see Colorado called before New Mexico but that's the way it is sometimes.
In Nevada, Oregon and Washington State CNN will probably hold of CALLS until every Vote is counted. It could very well be that fewer than 10,000 will seperate DeSantis and Harris in each of those 3 States so it's smart to hold off just to be sure.

# 4 On the Senate Side Maine will almost certainly go to the Ranked-Choice-Voting and Rep. Pingree is certainly favoured in that. Montana will probably called soon for the Republicans while Pennsylvania will most likely called for Senator Casey soon as well. As far as the other outstanding Seats are concerned: The Michigan Senate Seat did not get called by CNN in 2000 until after 8am when Debbie Stabenow beat then Senator Spencer Abraham. And given previous close 3-way Races in Minnesota (Coleman-Franken-Barkley in 2008) that won't be called soon either.
And in Nevada, Arizona and Washington State you have to wait until everything is in. Sinemas' Election in 2018 did not get called until Thursday. As for Washington State we probably have to wait until the week after the Election. Hopefully it's not as close as the 2004 Governor Race between Dino Rossi and Christine Gregoire.
The big irony is that Michigan, Home of Vice President Harris Running Mate Gary Peters, could be the State that puts Republicans at the Magic Number of 60.
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2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,518


« Reply #49 on: August 26, 2022, 06:17:11 AM »

Illinois will be called after 3am I think. Also Pennsylvania Senate & Nevada Senate might be called.

BUT two massive Races were called in this 2am Hour: Michigan Senate and the even bigger one North Carolina Governor and guess what: Both won by African-Americans.

North Carolina will likely have rougly a 30 % Black Electorate in 2024 and yet Harris doesn't get the 16 Electoral Votes AND Voters elected a Republican African-American Governor. This is absolutely a shot in the armour to Democrats.


Here is what President DeSantis should absolutely do on Day 1:
Sign Executive Order to end all COVID-19 Restrictions including welcoming both vaccinated & unvaccinated Foreign Travellers back into the Country.
Secondly Appoint Special Investigator to investigate Anthony Fauci who did irrepairable harm to the Country for the last 4 years.
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