2024 - A Blank Canvas

[2016]

@SaintStan86,
No Nikki Haley in Florida? That is a big surprise given that Pence was there.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I definitely see Fetterman’s star rising ITTL. The fact that he was able to win a competitive race in an election that was otherwise abysmal for Democrats and narrow the margins in conservative areas is going to lead to serious discussion about him as an ideal future presidential candidate and maybe even a possible VP pick in 2024 if Biden doesn’t run again and depending upon the nominee.

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue on, I shall mention that Nikki Haley is going to be in this TL, and she will have a rather valid explanation as to why she wasn't at Mar-a-Lago - which may have something to do with comments she made following 1/6 + an apparent desire to bring forth a more traditional foreign policy approach in the Republican primary (somewhere midway between what Trump and George W. Bush had in mind) versus the sort of approach that Trump took, all while keeping a max level of Trump's MAGA stylings. If she does run for President in this TL (and perhaps IRL as well), this can be expected. It also will have something to do with Israel, which may explain how some of the key chess players in this presidential sweepstakes will turn out.

Also, I am correct to say that Johnson and Thune are both running again, and it's safe to say Mike Rounds will likely fall into the "less Trumpian" category as far as endorsements are concerned given his recent comments about the election (which led to a rather lengthy rebuke from Trump), though as he is a more establishmentarian Republican compared to even Thune I don't really expect him to have much of an impact compared to say Kristi Noem.

There will be changes in Michigan and North Carolina with the House projections I originally posted though - Rashida Tlaib is now running in Brenda Lawrence's current seat, which is actually two-thirds Tlaib's even though it contains the fail-safe Dem stronghold of Southfield as the only non-Wayne County portion; the Wayne bulwark contains areas like west Detroit, Westland and Dearborn - the latter of which is obvious considering that city's large Arab American presence, along with some more moderately Republican areas like Livonia). MI-13 is now an open seat, and as that field builds I will eventually make a new projection there other than the fact that it is heavily Dem and will stay so. NC-06 may also get an update as well because a notable former American Idol star named Clay Aiken is in that race now. Still betting on Wiley Nickel, but that could change given Aiken's star power + the prospect of Aiken becoming the first out LGBT congressman from the South, even though the Triangle - the heart of Tobacco Road - is as ACC as it gets.

Now, let the April showers give way to May flowers...

May 1, 2023
BIDEN UNSURE ABOUT SECOND TERM, LEANING TOWARDS POSSIBLE RETIREMENT
Following his latest medical checkup, which has often become a source of much speculation especially from his detractors, President Biden once again contends that he remains fit enough to carry out the duties expected of the presidency. Asides from some nerve issues with his feet and spine as well as acid reflux - all issues addressed in his examination from 2022, his physicians confirm that Biden appears "quite healthy" for his age, with whatever neurological issues do exist largely being what some can expect for an 80-year-old President.

But while the President appears to be healthy, from an organizational perspective Biden's future appears cloudy. The transition of the COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic - while expected at this point - has negated the need for any future economic stimulus, even to bail out failing companies or industries, with the national debt starting to emerge as an increasingly important issue with especially younger voters, entitlements already further diminished by years of diversions from the Social Security pool, and two minor government shutdowns caused by failures to agree on raising debt ceilings while the nation's credit ratings are threatened with the risk of default. Biden's economic policy outside of the budget has also been viewed as a mixed bag, with many comparing it to a "third term of Barack Obama". Indeed, many of the Obama hallmarks - tax increases on corporations and the wealthy, a larger safety net to address health care reform, efforts to combat income inequality, and gradual shifts towards renewable energy sources - are largely permeated within the Biden economic policy prescription. While the stock market remains relatively high and the economy has largely recovered from pandemic lows, inflation also continues to be a major issue especially for middle- and working-class Americans, and many key parts of Biden's domestic policy - increasing minimum wage and job training requirements, student loan debt forgiveness, strict clean energy investments and (most significantly) election reform - have been all but scuttled in the new Republican Congress, and with Republicans widely expected to maintain their House majority and make further gains in the Senate, Biden finds himself at a crossroads. The fact that Biden and Senate Democrats ultimately succeeded in changing filibuster rules, only to see them scuttled in the eyes of SCOTUS, also adds to Biden's uncertainty to deliver domestically for any potential reelection.

On foreign policy, the Biden Doctrine has largely revolved around restoring whatever alliances Biden argued were "damaged" under Donald Trump, with most of his foreign policy also drawing comparisons to Obama's as well. Indeed, Biden has sought to reassert American ties to NATO as well as the Paris Agreement, and made cybersecurity (including a nuclear submarine pact with Australia and the UK, AUKUS) and vaccine equity priorities over his two years, all while building on his years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when he served in the Senate. While refusing to negotiate with Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and taking a hard line in support of Israel, Biden has also had some major blunders. For the most part, Biden has failed to restore the sort of deal with Iran that Obama championed, while Russia, China and North Korea continue to be overt aggressors for which Biden's approach to them has been relatively hands-off (with even Biden's toughest words being viewed as "lukewarm" in comparison to Trump's by some critics).

However, dragging down Biden's foreign policy strengths - and those of his reelection chances - was the quagmire in Afghanistan; while Biden's decision to pull American troops out was seen as a "long time coming", the lack of an adequate backup presence to counter the Taliban's takeover proved to be damaging to Biden's reputation both amongst American citizens and global leaders alike and a colossal failure for NATO, with Biden's approach even becoming fodder for impeachment talk by the new Congress. The lingering crisis at the Mexican border, which ultimately played a hand in Biden's declining support in border communities particularly in Texas, and the social impact associated with it has also impacted Biden's record with Trump, conservative commentators and even some mainstream media sources calling Biden's handling of the border crisis one of his biggest failures. Indeed, both Afghanistan and the border crisis are considered generally to be failures for Biden on the scale of Iran and the inflation crisis with regards to Jimmy Carter.

All said, while many argue that Biden never really had a chance to deliver domestically and internationally due to the initially divided, if Democratic-leaning, state of the Congress, the new Republican majorities of the latter part of his term, and a SCOTUS dominated by Republican nominees with only three reliable liberal votes, Biden feels at ease with the decisions his administration has made, in keeping with promise to be "an American President" despite his lifelong profile as a mainstream Democrat. Though he has been expected to run for a second term at various points, Biden also suggested in the past to aides that he would only serve a single term or "as long as it takes to restore respect for American democracy in the world and heal whatever wounds Donald Trump created". Sources say that inflection point could be coming soon, and speculation surrounding Biden's future becomes the top story for at least another week or two.

[SaintStan86]

May 10, 2023
BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT BIDEN ANNOUNCES HE WILL NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM
After more than a week of speculation, in a televised primetime speech from the Oval Office, President Biden announced on Wednesday night that he will not be seeking reelection to a second term in 2024. While the President's one term has been viewed as mediocre and low in delivered expectations compared to previous Presidents, Biden began by saying "Throughout these last two years, my duty and commitment to serving the American people has never been stronger. The work we have accomplished together, helping to defeat a terrible scourge of a pandemic, repairing race relations here at home and healing the wounds of a divided nation, and restoring democracy and America's reputation on the world stage, is far more than what I expected to accomplish as your President. For that, I am more than eternally grateful to be given the opportunity to serve as an American President."

Biden continued by saying, "There is unfinished business, and lots of it, but I am confident that America's best days are straight ahead and there are many great leaders who are ready to step up and defend democracy from the harsh rule of authoritarian thugs and bullies - both here at home and around the world - who seek to undermine it. When I spoke to my closest aides and friends, my promise was to serve one term with the promise of restoring America, and if I wanted to seek a second term, they would be the first to know, and I have already made that decision to them with a happy smile, hearty handshakes and full confidence. To that extent, because you deserve to hear from me more than anyone else, I am announcing that I will not be a candidate for reelection in 2024. Being your President has been the greatest honor of my life, and the lessons I have learned, the memories I have made, and the successes I have accomplished are the little things that will be remembered as time marches on." While health and age is rumored to have been a factor, Biden also feels that he has delivered most everything he has wanted to deliver in his time as President, and cited a desire to spend more time with his family (including his grandchildren in particular) in Delaware.

Most of the former Presidents expressed gratitude to Biden and wished him well on a happy retirement, with the notable but unsurprising exception of Donald Trump who remarked "I still can't believe he chose to retire - was looking forward to BEATING HIM AGAIN in 2024, but obviously, when even Sleepy Joe knows he's had enough, he knows very well he's had enough" and jested "Congrats on your retirement, hopefully in time you'll be seen by others as better than whatever loser seeks to replace you, unless a Republican - especially me - wins of course!" Speculation also has begun to swirl as to which Democrats will seek to replace Biden, with most of the speculation centering around Vice President Kamala Harris (who is arguably seen as the frontrunner to succeed Biden on the Democratic side). The rest of the potential field is uncertain, but four particular brand name Democrats: Senator and 2020 candidate Cory Booker of New Jersey, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have all ruled out runs for President. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker once again declared he will NOT run for President either as well, as has former HUD Secretary and 2020 candidate Julián Castro, who remains committed to running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Texas being left behind by presidential candidate Ted Cruz. However, one Democrat who previously rebuffed a presidential bid to initially focus on "nudging" Biden leftward has decided to jump in...

May 13, 2023
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
Just days after President Biden announced he would not be seeking reelection, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced her candidacy for President, becoming the first notable Democrat to enter the presidential race since Biden's announcement. Though she will be 75 in 2024, which would make her not much older than Trump was in 2016, and expresses regret about the failures of her 2020 presidential run, Warren is running with an aim to fill the progressive void left by Bernie Sanders' decision not to run for President again after his own two failed attempts to win the Democratic nomination, coming in second to more center-left "neoliberal" candidates in both attempts. As expected, Warren builds her campaign around unabashed stances on such progressive causes as increasing the federal minimum wage, Medicare for All, a Green New Deal and reining in the power of corporations and "the 1%". In addition to running for President, she will also continue to run for reelection to the Senate as well, with petitions in Massachusetts already circulating for Warren to run in both the presidential primary and her Class I Senate seat.

Following her announcement, the RNC is quick to blast Warren. As Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel writes, "With President Biden now choosing to retire instead of run on his own record, the Democrats have proven that the only way to win the nomination is to run to the far left. Elizabeth Warren has been the Grand Dame of far-left socialism for practically her entire Senate career, and her presidential candidacy is just the tip of the iceberg. There is only way to stop the Socialist Warren agenda, and that is to elect Republicans at all levels from the courthouse to the White House in 2024."

May 18, 2023
POTENTIAL REPUBLICANS TO TRUMP: MAKE UP YOUR MIND
With President Biden no longer running for reelection, Republicans have started to put pressure on former President Donald Trump to make a decision as to whether or not he will run to pursue a comeback. Despite widespread speculation that Trump would make a "revenge tour of sorts against Biden" and polling seen as favorable towards him both in the Republican primary and in general polling against Biden, Trump has not made a firm decision yet as to whether or not he would attempt to make a comeback. Some suggest his age may be a factor, while others have suggested the possibility that Trump could potentially blow it for Republicans because of perceptions over his "lack of moral authority". There are also some who feel that Trump, due to increasing disputes with various Republican members of Congress and even conservative media hosts like Sean Hannity over the results of the 2020 election, may consider bowing out both for the good of the GOP and to avoid giving a direct path to Kamala Harris to snag the presidency (and with it, potentially turn 2024 into a redux of 2020).

Perhaps the one factor as to whether or not Trump will consider running again, according to insiders of the former President, may be whether or not the Republican bench is as committed and loyal to "the America First agenda" and conservatism as a whole. Indeed, one major reason Trump ran for President in 2016 and quickly rose as the leading contender for the GOP then was due to his "outsider" label in contrast to such established Republican names as Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, among others. Indeed, since leaving office, Trump has used subsequent elections as a yardstick for measuring not only whether or not GOP incumbents and challengers are principled enough conservatives, but whether or not they are loyal to him and his supporters. Many of the freshmen in the new Congress indeed are Republicans who largely either won on the basis of their conservative convictions, stressed commitment to Trump's agenda, or both, and some even had past associations with the Trump administration, while most of the ten who voted to impeach Trump lost reelection or chose to retire, for instance.

But time is clearly of the essence, and many potential Republican candidates (or at least their closest advisors) including Trump alums like Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo, established conservative names like Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Josh Hawley and Tim Scott, Trump-skeptical figures like Ben Sasse and Adam Kinzinger, conservative media figures like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, and even more recent names like Glenn Youngkin, Sean Duffy and Mike Lindell are all in a holding pattern to a large extent. Whether or not the field will grow beyond the three big names that have already declared - Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and Larry Hogan - all comes down to Trump. With the Iowa State Fair and its straw poll coming up in August, candidates are waiting for Trump to decide before they make their call.

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue on, I shall make mention of two congressional updates:

CO-07: First off, in Colorado, Ed Perlmutter is now retiring from Congress instead of facing what would have looked like a surprise loss. His 7th District, which now stretches from the western suburbs of Denver in Jefferson County out to exurban and rural areas well to the southwest, is going to be a barn-burner. Expect loaded primaries on both sides.

IN-09: This is somewhat surprising, but you got to give props to Trey Hollingsworth for choosing to honor his term limit pledge (though I would have preferred six house terms max to the four he voted for and three he pledged; he is right about two terms in the Senate though). He has also hoped that lobbying reform would pass in an op-ed he wrote in the Indianapolis Star, I believe. He had about a half-dozen Democrats (albeit not of the brand name kind) lining up to challenge him, but Republicans are definitely going to hang on in this semi-rural seat that is now explicitly focused on the southeast Indiana suburbs of Louisville and the small, if growing, western suburbs/exurbs of Cincinnati, with Bloomington as perhaps the lone Dem blueberry in a sea of Clamato. A far cry from the swing seat that once sent Lee Hamilton - of all persons - to Congress. No word on who his replacement will be, but I can imagine his replacement being well-funded, maybe with some legislative experience, and certainly "America First".

Now, back to your regularly scheduled program:

May 22, 2023
TRUMP: "YOU WILL BE THE FIRST TO KNOW"
After days of clarion calls from Republican presidential hopefuls and supporters to make a decision, former President Donald Trump announced that he will make a decision next month on whether or not he wants to run for President again in 2024, setting a press conference at Mar-a-Lago for June 14th, a Wednesday which also happens to be not only the designated national holiday of Flag Day, but also Trump's 77th birthday. While he stopped short of announcing he would run again, he did give out three clues: that he will run as a Republican, that he will not make an endorsement right away if he does not run, and that if he does run he will be open to "crushing my haters in all those meaningless debates". While continuing to air an aura of confidence in his chances of running, he also mentions "the big difference is we have so many great people that are committed to America First, and a lot less of the same losers who hated me and wished I would just go away." Indeed, speculators argue that if Trump were not to run, it may have to do with Congress and state houses having moved more sharply in his direction since his 2016 triumph, with fewer Republicans fixated on crossing Trump serving in office.

As for the other Republican candidates, the jockeying has already begun. Chris Christie has already set up a campaign headquarters in Des Moines and has planned a full slate of events for the summer, while Mike Pence has made appearances at a few county Republican meetings in the state. Nikki Haley, who drew significant attention for apparently snubbing Trump at his Mar-a-Lago gathering the previous month, appeared at a function with Gov. Kim Reynolds who Haley endorsed in 2022, and Josh Hawley spoke to a Students for Life club at Iowa State University on the value of "adoption over abortion". Ben Sasse also draws attention for numerous social media posts from other users showing his vehicle crossing Omaha's Mormon Bridge over the Missouri River into Iowa, but the Nebraska U.S. Senator merely states that he is just "doing some vacationing there" without any mention of political activity.

May 23, 2023
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS LAUNCHES 2024 BID
Nearly two weeks after President Biden announced he would not seek reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris launched her presidential campaign with an introductory video on her personal YouTube page. Promising "a transformed America more united, driven and passionate than ever before", the Vice President aims to "build on what Joe Biden has built back up, to make this country even better". Emphasizing a host of liberal stances on criminal justice reform, climate change, gun control and women's rights, Harris emphasizes that she is not "merely a puppet of our President, but someone with a backbone to fight for justice, equity and opportunity for all". To no great surprise, Republicans strongly criticize her, arguing that Harris has been "Biden's biggest cheerleader for everything that has gone wrong in our country since the day he took office".

Harris is expected to be far from the only Democrat expected to enter the race. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who resigned his post after the new Congress was sworn in but rebuffed claims he was doing it for presidential ambitions, was recently spotted in Iowa at a union fish fry where he extolled the successes of Biden's infrastructure plan, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota headlined a major Democratic fundraiser in Des Moines, and shot down speculation she was running for President when asked about it by suggesting "Let's just say I'm more focused on getting things done for Minnesota families than merely doing window shopping here in Des Moines - for actual windows, that is". (Fun fact: The state is actually home to a major window manufacturer, Pella, which is southeast of Des Moines.)

May 31, 2023
REP. MATT GAETZ RESIGNS FROM OFFICE, WILL NOT SEEK PRESIDENTIAL BID
Embattled over crimes surrounding a former friend of his and lingering allegations of sex trafficking, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned from office on Wednesday and declared he will also not be running for President in 2024. The four-term Republican, who was first elected in the same 2016 election that elected Donald Trump and elevated Gaetz into one of his leading advocates in Congress, had become a lightning rod for controversy over his tenure in Washington, and had been facing calls for his resignation, if not expulsion, over the aforementioned sex trafficking allegations. At last check, Gaetz was reportedly spotted in Santa Barbara, California, where his wife Ginger is from.

Had Gaetz run for President, he would have certainly staked out a unique niche as a "libertarian nationalist" with strong support for the Trump agenda and also as a millennial conservative who could appeal to younger voters. Other potential candidates remain mum about their ambitions, with much of the focus now shifting towards Trump's anticipated speech at Mar-a-Lago the coming month. As for his heavily Republican district in the Florida Panhandle, Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a special election for late August, with the winner to be decided on Tuesday, November 7. While Democrats stated they do intend to recruit candidates for the seat, the seat is not only expected to remain Republican, but may even result in a runoff where both candidates are Republicans.

[SaintStan86]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

[SaintStan86]

June 4, 2023
GOV. ROY COOPER LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL BID
At a "special tailgate party" near the campus of his alma mater, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, that was marketed as a "thank you party" for his supporters and donors with a "big announcement", Gov. Roy Cooper announced to a jubilant crowd that he will be running for President in 2024. While originally having not considered a run for President as he viewed Biden as "likely to seek reelection" then, Biden's decision to retire has opened the door for Cooper. A more traditional center-left moderate in the mold of Biden who largely shares many of Biden's political positions with an emphasis on "good paying jobs" and quality education for working families, Cooper has the distinction of winning twice as a Democrat in a state that voted twice for Donald Trump - first as a candidate in 2016 and then as the incumbent in 2020.

The tailgate party, as expected, is part tailgate, part Sunday brunch with such quintessentially southern (and in particular, appropriate for North Carolina) foods as barbecue (including ribs) with all the fixins, fried green tomatoes, buttermilk biscuits, Cheerwine and mimosas - perhaps in honor of the "Brunch Bill" Cooper signed on his watch that allowed alcohol sales after church on Sundays. There's even plenty of football involved as former Congressman (and possible gubernatorial hopeful) Heath Shuler (himself a former star college quarterback who flamed out in the NFL) is on hand to endorse Cooper, calling him "a family man who will bring North Carolina values to all of America". But the reality still remains that Cooper is likely to be a distant candidate in a field dominated by Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, and likely to be further diluted by other dignitaries including other Democratic Governors as well as Biden administration officials. Still, if there were a case for a moderate Democrat Governor from the South (even though North Carolina is clearly more ACC than SEC as a whole), Cooper would fit the bill.

June 7, 2023
CANDACE OWENS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
Just one week before Trump's scheduled announcement on whether or not he will run for President, conservative commentator Candace Owens draws attention of her own by announcing that she will run for President as a Republican in 2024. The announcement, which she makes in a video exclusive to Twitter, is made official after weeks of promoting "something very big" to her audience on her Daily Wire talk show, Candace. A Connecticut native who once rabidly criticized the former President and conservatives in general, Owens shifted more towards the right after her attempted launch of a website to expose online bullying led to harassment she subsequently blamed on liberals (even though conservatives in the Gamergate controversy which formed the basis for her ill-fated website also criticized it as well), with Trump provocateurs such as Mike Cernovich playing a central role in her political transformation into what many consider one of the most provocative voices on the right.

When asked as to why she chose to run for President despite Trump's decision not being known yet, Owens cited, "Competition is a good thing, and I think it's important to note that while Trump has been a big influence on not only who I have become politically, but also the rise of Black conservatives throughout the country, he is not without fault." If elected, Owens would be the youngest President ever elected - as she will turn 35 (the minimum age required to run for President) in April and the first Black woman ever elected to the post. While her campaign has all the (albeit stereotypical) hallmarks of Trumpism - America First, secure borders, opposition to China and wokeism, etc. - prognosticators put her presidential chances at zero percent, and polls both with and without Trump show her in the low single-digits or just merely hashmarks, with some pundits wondering if Trump's defense of the COVID vaccines, even though both he and Owens opposed mandates, in a recent interview on her Daily Wire podcast (which according to founder Ben Shapiro has suspended production due to her campaign), steered her towards making a presidential run regardless of what Trump does.

June 9, 2023
SEN. JOSH HAWLEY WILL RUN FOR REELECTION, NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT
After months of speculation, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri reasserted that he will be running for reelection for a second term as the state's now-senior U.S. Senator and will not run for President regardless of what Donald Trump decides the following week. In an announcement made outside the state capitol in Jefferson City, Hawley cites "If there's any place where my voice is needed more than ever for the America First movement, it's in the Senate, and that will be the case no matter who the Republicans nominate next year."

While his Tocqueville-style approach to governance, which combines a focus on social conservatism with economic nationalism and opposition to foreign wars, has made him a favorite in Trump circles, it has not been without criticism. Indeed, Hawley's support for economic stimulus for families impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which he made in a press conference during the height of the pandemic with Bernie Sanders (of all persons) in December of 2020, led to criticism from economic conservative groups such as the Club for Growth, with other critics even calling Hawley's "middle America" characterizations and support for banning stock ownership amongst members of Congress hypocritical, citing his upbringing in a banker's household and Ivy League education. However, much of the criticism as of recent centered on his decision to move his family to northern Virginia (which he described as a means of keeping his young family together, opting to maintain voter eligibility at his sister's residence in a suburb of Springfield) and especially his central role in the drama surrounding the certification of the 2020 presidential election and the ensuing insurrection, which led his one-time mentor, former U.S. Senator John Danforth (who once held the same Senate seat Hawley now holds), to apologize for supporting Hawley.

While Hawley is now running for reelection, it is not without a high-profile challenger to no great surprise, as U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner of the suburban St. Louis-based 2nd, who had once been considered as a potential challenger for the Senate seat Hawley won over then-incumbent Claire McCaskill in in 2018, declared her candidacy for the seat the previous month with support from Danforth and other more established Republicans who expressed doubts that Hawley could win a second term in 2024. Wagner, who unlike Hawley voted to certify the 2020 election for Biden and waffled between endorsing and not endorsing Trump over the course of his presidential career, stressed the need for "a reliable conservative voice who will do Missouri proud and undo the damage that President Biden has done to our country", with her campaign team even pointing to Hawley's polling numbers against former State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who is running on the Democratic side, as underwater in the suburbs of St. Louis and Kansas City. The announcement was met with criticism from Trumpworld and even members of her own political inner circle including some of her staff, with Hawley chiming, "Maybe we ought to remember the last time someone from her district ran for this seat...didn't exactly go as planned," referencing the failed 2012 candidacy of Wagner's predecessor Todd Akin, whose campaign against McCaskill imploded in the face of a controversial slip of the tongue on abortion he made on a St. Louis political talk show, and also perhaps McCaskill's 2006 triumph over then-Sen. Jim Talent (who also represent Wagner's seat in the past) as well.

And now, the time has come. Get ready for a YUGE update to the TL...

[Gass3268]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

Yeah, that map of Ohio would get struck down again. Its probably even less fair the the original map. Everything is looking good!

[SaintStan86]

June 14, 2023
BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
After weeks of speculation, former President Donald Trump announced that he will not run for President in 2024. The surprise announcement, which followed earlier reports that the press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence would be closed to the public save for his family, his closest advisors and members of the media (well, at least the ones least likely to rock Trump's boat) - a situation very unusual for a President used to drawing massive crowds even during the worst brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, came after weeks of speculation that intensified following the announcement that President Joe Biden would not seek a second term.

In the announcement, Trump stated, "I have no doubt that I still won the election in 2020, that Joe Biden was living on borrowed time in a presidency that really was being controlled by Kamala Harris, and that if I were to run there would be a level of support like no one ever saw before for any candidate, anywhere. At the same time, with Sleepy Joe deciding permanently to take naps and sleep in, and with so many more allies that I helped put in office - both here in Florida and across the nation, including those who now supposedly hate me for no reason, and of course no more Liz Cheney to worry about, I am at peace with what we have built on this journey together with a Republican Party fully transformed and more committed to America First than ever before."

"That's why, because you the American people are my first and foremost supporters, I am here to tell you today that I will not be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024. I encourage everyone to not be disappointed, don't get angry at me like you did me and Bill O'Reilly over the great vaccines that saved America and our beautiful economy we had before the swamp threw us into a panic - that's what the Democrats want. Instead, we should be encouraged by the progress we have made in the last eight years - a presidency that put free and fair trade at the very front, record job growth for minorities, and tough leadership against China and others who seek to bully us into submission, followed by a tremendous uprising against the weak-kneed leadership that Joe Biden and his fake news media comrades defended at every turn as they dismantled everything we built - which will be proudly built back with a strong America First President I will be endorsing as we get to the good stuff (apparently alluding to the obviously larger states on Super Tuesday that follow the early states)."

As expected, the reaction across the political spectrum and around the world is overwhelming from foreign leaders and celebrities to grassroots activists and detractors at home. Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz and many others on the right all honored Trump for the accomplishments of his administration, while Barack Obama, Chuck Schumer, Kamala Harris and others on the left expressed relief at the announcement Trump would not be running - though some did fret over whether or not this would actually work to the GOP's benefit in 2024. As expected, Republican and conservative critics of Trump had reactions ranging from relief that "the fascist is gone" to concern that "what Trump left behind may be even worse". Lastly, with Trump no longer in the picture for 2024, former Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois also announced he would not be running for President, proclaiming "Today is a great day for those who believe in country over party, as Donald Trump has decided on his own terms he won't be coming back to the White House", while also acknowledging that "there is work to be done to ensure the scourge of Trumpism no longer infects the GOP going forward".

[2016]

With Trump not running the Door is open for DeSantis or Tim Scott.

Tim Scott/Ron DeSantis Ticket or vise-versa would be nice.

[SaintStan86]

With Donald Trump and Joe Biden both choosing to opt out of running for President and the field now wide open for the White House - and the Senate, the floodgates are already starting to open:

June 17, 2023
SEN. MARCO RUBIO TO ENTER 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida announced on Saturday that he will run for President again in 2024. Rubio, who received over 3.5 million votes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries and had just been reelected last year to a third term, made the announcement in an introductory ad on his website where he states "It's time to restore the timeless values of American exceptionalism here at home and around the world", with an emphasis on reforming the nation's immigration and border security practices, a more active presence in "confronting Communism and antidemocratic institutions around the globe", and "reining in the national debt without jeopardizing our security here at home". A formal kickoff is scheduled to take place later this month in Miami, where his campaign is based and has already generated support from Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and the area's three Republican members of Congress, Mario Diaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar, with venerable Miami auto dealer Norman Braman serving as his national honorary campaign finance chairman.

Despite falling short of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, criticism over Rubio choosing to seek a third term and especially his support for comprehensive immigration reform, Rubio's oratory strengths set him apart amongst the field, and he also fills a niche within the Republican field on national security matters - particularly from the sort of hawkish line more commonly associated with the pre-Trump GOP. However, Rubio is very likely to face competition for this vote from other candidates whose profile rose in the Trump era, and some question whether or not the 52-year-old Rubio "still has it" after being humiliated by Trump in his own state during the 2016 primaries. Rubio shrugs off this criticism, pointing to similar critiques of his fellow Cuban-American colleague in the Senate, Ted Cruz, who has entered the 2024 race already but not without questions of whether or not Cruz is "as exciting a candidate as he was in 2016".

June 19, 2023
FORMER VP MIKE PENCE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
On Monday, five days after former President Donald Trump announced he would not run for President again in a surprise announcement, former Vice President Mike Pence announced his entry into the presidential field on the steps of the Indiana Statehouse. A former Democrat in his youth who later became a Republican in the Ronald Reagan years, Pence became notable as a popular conservative talk radio host in Indianapolis before eventually serving six terms in Congress and one term as Governor before serving as Vice President under Donald Trump. In his maiden campaign speech, Pence proclaims "Like many of you, I started out as an aimless Democrat finding his way in the world. And boy, did I grow up and see the light."

In his speech, Pence also declares, "Of all the candidates running for President in 2024, I am the only one who worked side-by-side with Donald Trump to Make America Great Again. And as your next President, I am going to once again Make America Great!" Pence has aimed to build his campaign around tackling the national debt without jeopardizing economic growth, reining in wasteful spending on healthcare and social services, defending traditional values and "finishing the work at the border that Trump started and Biden has tried to dismantle!". When asked about his appearance at Mar-a-Lago the previous April, Pence remarks, "Well I was just there for Melania because it was her birthday and to celebrate the victories in Florida, but Donald and I had a great discussion about the issues facing the country. He knows very well that his movement has outlasted his presidency by far, and we're definitely not going back to where we were before Trump."

June 22, 2023
SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN TO RETIRE
On Thursday night during her 90th birthday party at a hotel in San Francisco, longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein announced that she will not be running for reelection after more than 30 years of service out of many in a long career of public service, including serving as Mayor of San Francisco during most of the 1980s following the assassination of her predecessor George Moscone and her fellow Supervisor Harvey Milk, followed by her 1992 victory over appointed Republican Sen. John Seymour to become California's first female U.S. Senator.

Following her announcement, Feinstein receives overwhelming praise from many of her fellow Democrats including (obviously) three of her most notable colleagues: Vice President Kamala Harris (who referred to Feinstein as "a national treasure and progressive champion who will be sorely missed in Washington"), former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer (who was elected with Feinstein in the 1992 'Year of the Woman' and praised her former colleague as "true to California and the progressive values we stand for"), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (who at the party praised Feinstein as "a national treasure and the matriarch of the California Democratic Party, for which I was grateful to serve as Chairwoman when Feinstein was in her first years as Mayor of this great city").

With Feinstein's retirement, Democrats across the nation's largest state (and arguably the biggest "blue state") start to ponder their futures as a hotly contested and expensive primary is expected to shape up. Just hours after Feinstein's retirement announcement, progressive U.S. Rep Katie Porter announces her candidacy for Feinstein's seat, with another outspoken liberal member of Congress, Eric Swalwell, following suit later that day, and many other high-profile Democrats expected to enter the race in the coming weeks. At the same time, it also puts Porter's competitive 47th District in coastal Orange County in play, having only reelected Porter with just over 51 percent of the vote; though considering how badly Democrats did at the congressional level in 2022, and especially with former Congressman Harley Rouda now running for Porter's seat after bowing out in 2022 to Porter, many progressives view Porter's candidacy as "a win-win for progressives" considering the circumstances Porter had to face.

While admittedly being underdogs, Republicans are also optimistic, with the California Republican Party announcing that "we will be waging the most vigorous contest for the U.S. Senate in years", hoping to build on their 2022 numbers which produced some of the best numbers for GOP candidates since the heavily contested 2010 elections for Governor (where Meg Whitman lost to Jerry Brown) and U.S. Senate (where Boxer defeated Carly Fiorina for her fourth and ultimately final term for the seat Kamala Harris later held for four years before becoming Vice President). Immediately, speculation begins to swirl around Speaker Kevin McCarthy running, but McCarthy dismisses this talk, choosing to focus more on running the House and "standing up to the failed Biden agenda", while also declaring "I will do my darnedest to make sure Republicans have a strong candidate who will put the great state of California in play once again".

[SaintStan86]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

Yeah, that map of Ohio would get struck down again. Its probably even less fair the the original map. Everything is looking good!

That may be all well and good to demand exactly 8 Republican and 7 Democrat seats, but Ohio legislators are not going to approve of a map that will cause large chunks of voters, particularly in more suburban areas like around Columbus and in blue-collar regions around Cleveland, to have their votes lost in districts that are so lopsided that the minority party in the district would have an impossible chance of winning.

For better or worse, Ohio is a favorably red state in the near term unless the Democrats start taking Tim Ryan's words seriously about wanting to be more than just a party of hard-left utopians, which doesn't sell with either the suburban voters who shifted blue in the Trump era nor the blue-collar folks Ryan largely represents in Congress (for now) who want the Bernie Sanders economics but not the "bitter clinger" BS that cost Obama with those type of voters around Youngstown and along the Ohio River. It's also important to note that nine of the 15 districts in my map voted for Sherrod Brown (all but one of the districts serving northeast Ohio as well as Beatty's Columbus vote sink, the seat I drew for Chabot in Cincinnati, Turner's Dayton seat and the Toledo seat where Kaptur and Latta would be drawn in), with the seat I drew for Jim Jordan that wraps around the northern Columbus suburbs only barely voting for Jim Renacci. The other seats, save for Brad Wenstrup's seat that snakes into Cincinnati from Clermont and Warren counties, would be fail-safe GOP seats for respective incumbents Balderson, Gibbs, Davidson and the newly elected Carey in southern Ohio. Of course, Democrats would balk at the fact that Mike DeWine won 11 of the 15 seats (the two Black districts + the seats I drew in Toledo and Akron went for Richard Cordray), even though DeWine won the other five that Brown won by single digits (with Turner's seat going for DeWine by just under 10 percent) and all of those districts probably would have voted at least once for Barack Obama (not counting Carey's and Balderson's seats that probably were close for John McCain in 2008).

As far as minority demographics are concerned, the districts that Beatty and Shontel Brown (or perhaps Nina Turner?) represent are effectively Black opportunity districts that cannot be dramatically altered without sinking the votes of more Republican and purple areas that otherwise would be better represented in a district like Dave Joyce's to the east. It's one thing to put Shaker Heights or Lakewood into Brown's district since those are very Democratic areas with a mixture of Black and white liberal/Jewish voters, but it's another to throw in Chagrin Falls (a more Republican area of eastern Cuyahoga that has more in common politically with Geauga County than Cleveland) or even Solon (which favors the Democrats but not by the obscene margins in Shaker Heights) with causing a lot of uproar.

Going to Cincinnati, the Legislature will also have to find a way to benefit Chabot without denying Black Democrats an opportunity district, which is why putting in most of Republican-friendly Butler County (which is now in Davidson's district as a byproduct of the district previously being John Boehner's seat) save for Middletown (whose Butler and Warren parts would be in Mike Turner's Dayton district) with all but the most conservative areas of Cincinnati proper would be an effective compromise. Now if Chabot were to lose to a Democrat in the long term and that Democrat stayed in office by 2030, I could actually see a situation where the Democrat could be put in a district exclusive to Hamilton County with all of Cincinnati in it, and the only thing the GOP would have to worry about is whether or not to sink Colerain Township (west) or Indian Hill (east) into a favorably Dem district depending on whether or not future GOP presidential candidates are capable of winning Hamilton County in the future (George W. Bush was the last one to do it in 2004).

Lastly, Jim Jordan's district extending into Columbus would actually benefit both sides since Jordan would get a large suburban constituency around Columbus including Delaware County (which Republicans will NOT want to see its votes lost in a district that is safe for Democrats) that can be used as a local fundraising base for Jordan to build on and Democrats would have the outer northern parts of Franklin County (which would make up around two-thirds of the prototypical 8th) that were quite sympathetic to them in the Trump era, and it's also important to note that a district like what I drew for Jordan would actually help potential Democratic candidates (e.g. Danny O'Connor) whose candidacies would otherwise be seen as "wasted opportunities" not unlike the various Republican candidates who get millions in contributions running in deep blue districts simply because the Democrat is a lightning rod for controversy like Maxine Waters or in leadership like Nancy Pelosi (think of all the Republicans who got filthy rich in campaign contributions just for running against Pelosi!).

That is just my view, but I think my map is perhaps the best guess as to what will likely come to pass in the end that would be beneficial to all parties involved.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Things are really moving fast right now. Jerry McNerney is now retiring from his Stockton-based 9th in California. Josh Harder is now moving into the district, but it's still going to be a fight considering the district is D+5, and could still flip to Tom Patti if the current congressional poll trend towards the GOP persists. The 13th south of Stockton in Merced, which Harder is leaving, does have a ready-made Democratic challenger in State Asm. Adam Gray, and it just may become the new landing point for whichever Republican prevails in Devin Nunes's district now that Tom McClintock is running in the 5th; while it won't be easy for that Republican given its Democratic lean, it wouldn't be a shock to see that district also go Republican in this current environment as well. Also, in Rhode Island, Jim Langevin has announced his retirement from his D+9 district which is the more Republican of the two districts, containing many areas west of Providence that are more sympathetic to Republicans in comparison to those in the 1st. While the Democrats should be favored here on paper, the seat could be ripe for a dark horse Republican gain depending on how well the GOP is polling nationally and who the nominees could be.

Meanwhile, in the TL...

June 24, 2023
FORMER AMBASSADOR NIKKI HALEY TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
In front of a jubilant crowd that filled the streets of historic downtown Charleston, S.C., former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced her candidacy for President on the city's historic battery on Saturday, with the distant sight of Fort Sumter serving as a backdrop for her announcement. In her announcement, Haley proclaims, "Today, here in one of America's grandest cities, where history and American charm come together, right here in the great state of South Carolina, I am honored to announce that I will be a candidate for President of the United States of America!" The former Governor of South Carolina, who rose to prominence as a rising star in the GOP before her appointment as Ambassador, is building her campaign around continuing much of the legacy of the Trump presidency, with an emphasis on "standing up to China and those who seek to undermine our great country and what she stands for". With the announcement, her organization Stand for America becomes the umbrella organization for her campaign, as well as her slogan and primary hashtag, #StandForAmerica.

Joining Haley and her family on the Battery, with the podium conveniently situated at the foot of a double staircase leading up to the Battery itself, were some of South Carolina's most prominent Republican elected officials, including U.S. Senators, Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott and former U.S. Senator Jim DeMint, as well as Gov. Henry McMaster and the area's Congresswoman, Rep. Nancy Mace of the 1st District, who introduced Haley with the proclamation, "Ladies and gentlemen, your future and first Madame President, Nikki Haley!". Haley's campaign is built around a classic conservative playbook: tough fiscal discipline, defense of traditional values, and a strong national defense, along with a "hearty defense" of the Trump legacy of "America First", with Haley even proclaiming by plugging her organization's name and overall campaign slogan, "If you like America First, you will love Stand for America!"

The reaction to her candidacy is met with strong praise from many on the right, with Republicans chiming at the prospect of making Haley, born Nimrata Nikki Randhawa to Sikh immigrants in rural Bamberg County, the first female and first Asian-American President, beating Vice President Kamala Harris to that distinction. At the same time, some express skepticism, citing her breaking away from Trump following January 6th, in which Haley called on Republicans to move forward with the best of the Trump legacy and his movement, but without the controversial aspects that turned away some voters from Trump.

These points, as well as her absence from Trump's Mar-a-Lago party last April, were brought up in an exclusive interview Fox News anchor Bret Baier did with Haley, who responded to the question of her absence from that party by saying, "Of course, I had prior commitments that day and was spending time with my family, but I will admit I haven't really spoken to the President since that day the Capitol was stormed." When also asked by Baier, "Do you have any regrets about the Trump presidency?", Haley casually responds, "Of course not. For everything that went wrong on that day in January 2021 and whatever concerns some had about him, I could not imagine a presidency that was as successful and uplifting as that of Donald Trump."

June 26, 2023
SEN. COTTON ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE, TAKES AIM AT HALEY
Just two days after Nikki Haley's entrance into the Republican primary, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas declared his candidacy for President. The two-term Republican, who if elected would be the tallest President in American history at 6'5" - one inch higher than Abraham Lincoln, announced his candidacy on his campaign website, with an announcer proclaiming "More than ever, America needs a President whose first commitment is to everyday people doing extraordinary things. Their desire for traditional American values, a strong economy at home and a commitment to peace abroad is what unites us all as Americans." Following the introductory portion, which highlighted Cotton's upbringing in rural Dardanelle, his high school basketball days, days as an outspoken conservative at Harvard, and his career in the military, as a Mckinsey & Company consultant and eventually as a both a Congressman and later U.S. Senator, Cotton declares "More than ever, the need for strong America leadership to counter the dangerous influence of China, Russia and Islamic extremists here at home and abroad requires a strong conservative who will go to work for the American people from day one."

Indeed, Cotton is framing his candidacy around national security issues, unsurprising as Cotton is considered a leading foreign policy hawk on the Republican side who has been critical of noninterventionist influences within his party. In the announcement, Cotton also takes shots at Nikki Haley, "Unlike one of my opponents who you probably have heard about, I have never backed down from Donald Trump and I never will". Some Trump loyalists aren't convinced however, with Roger Stone and Steve Bannon pointing out in statements that Cotton opposed attempts to overturn the 2020 election victory for Joe Biden. Still, Bannon remarked, "It's safe to say, if Cotton does become President, at least Arkansas will have produced an Ivy League-educated President who didn't lose his values", taking a direct shot at former Democratic President (and former Arkansas Governor) Bill Clinton. With Cotton's announcement, the Republican field has now swelled to eight brand-name candidates, with Cotton's chances being put at "slim to none" of becoming the Republican nominee for President.

June 29, 2023
GOV. POLIS BECOMES LATEST DEMOCRAT TO ENTER PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado announced on Twitter that he will be entering the Democratic field for President on Thursday, with a formal announcement scheduled to take place on Saturday in Denver. The first openly gay man to serve as Governor of any state and Colorado's first Jewish Governor, Polis says he intends to use his experience as a technology entrepreneur and public servant to "transform America into a nation united more by our shared values of dignity, optimism and compassion for all mankind". Polis's campaign is built on a classic liberal agenda focused on investments in jobs, education and healthcare, but with somewhat of a "Western libertarian" twist not unlike that of his predecessor as Governor, John Hickenlooper, now a U.S. Senator, along with a strong focus on climate change. While Polis's platform does include an extensive array of environmental and energy policy prescriptions, Polis stops short of endorsing a "Green New Deal", instead preferring to focus on "market-based solutions to our changing climate". For the most part, Polis's campaign is slotted on the more moderate end of progressive, as a sharp contrast to the straight Obama-style liberalism of Kamala Harris and the hard progressivism of Elizabeth Warren.

Pundits react to the news of Polis's presidential candidacy by drawing comparisons to the campaigns of Hickenlooper as well as another noted former Colorado statesman, former U.S. Senator Gary Hart, whose 1984 campaign was built on the same moderate, technocratic sort of platform that Polis is now running on. Others have also alluded to the prospect of Polis's husband, Marlon Reis, becoming the first First Gentleman of the United States. But overall, Polis's chances of becoming President are relatively small in comparison to not only Harris and Warren, but also Pete Buttigieg, who like Polis is also openly gay, though some speculate that Polis could ultimately use his candidacy either as a springboard to the Vice Presidency on the winning Democratic ticket or as a Cabinet member of said future administration.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Gov. Ron DeSantis has assembled his own redistricting map, which adds further conflict to the current battle between the two houses of the Florida Legislature and DeSantis himself. Fast forwarding within this TL, I am going to now make some subtle changes to the House predictions in Florida assuming the numbering remains consistent, the VRA district DeSantis's plan scraps between Tallahassee and Jacksonville remains, and the prevailing Republican trend in congressional polling persists:

• After initially scrapping Al Lawson's 5th District connecting majority Black and liberal sections of Tallahassee and Jacksonville, a compromise is reached to keep it as the renumbered 3rd with a small finger extending to Gainesville. Kat Cammack will now represent the 5th with the rest of the Panhandle and First Coast seats remaining put.
• Asides from a minor change to add relatively purple Winter Park and Maitland, the Seminole and south Volusia-based 7th drawn by DeSantis survives with Cory Mills as the freshman incumbent. The rest of Orlando and Orange County remain dominated by the 9th of Darren Soto and the 10th of Randolph Bracy, with Walt Disney World, Doctor Phillips and such golf-oriented suburbs as Windermere and Bay Hill going to Daniel Webster's 11th now centered on The Villages. (A conservative district dominated by tourists, golfers and retirees...what a concept!)
• The GOP does get their Tampa Bay monopoly by the narrowest of margins. Kathy Castor ultimately runs in the more Democratic 15th to the east, but still narrowly loses to State Rep. Mike Beltran. Veterans Anna Paulina Luna and Jay Collins still win in the respective 13th (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) and 14th (most of Tampa, Carrollwood) districts, with eventual House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Vern Buchanan's 16th in Sarasota (where he wins north of 60% in reelection) being the closest thing to a competitive race in the outskirts of the region.
• All of Miami's three Republicans will still be reelected by favorable margins. The only other congressional change (asides from my projected victory for Dale Holness for a full term in the 20th) will be that while the 23rd will still stretch from Boca Raton and Parkland (site of that horrible school shooting in 2018) down to Fort Lauderdale and Dania Beach, it is now even more narrowly Democratic to where a stronger Republican other than what I projected enters the race and wins over Ted Deutch in what will still be a surprise pickup.

Now, back to the TL for some current events:

• A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
• Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
• Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:

• As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
• With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

[Tekken_Guy]

UPDATE: Gov. Ron DeSantis has assembled his own redistricting map, which adds further conflict to the current battle between the two houses of the Florida Legislature and DeSantis himself. Fast forwarding within this TL, I am going to now make some subtle changes to the House predictions in Florida assuming the numbering remains consistent, the VRA district DeSantis's plan scraps between Tallahassee and Jacksonville remains, and the prevailing Republican trend in congressional polling persists:

• After initially scrapping Al Lawson's 5th District connecting majority Black and liberal sections of Tallahassee and Jacksonville, a compromise is reached to keep it as the renumbered 3rd with a small finger extending to Gainesville. Kat Cammack will now represent the 5th with the rest of the Panhandle and First Coast seats remaining put.
• Asides from a minor change to add relatively purple Winter Park and Maitland, the Seminole and south Volusia-based 7th drawn by DeSantis survives with Cory Mills as the freshman incumbent. The rest of Orlando and Orange County remain dominated by the 9th of Darren Soto and the 10th of Randolph Bracy, with Walt Disney World, Doctor Phillips and such golf-oriented suburbs as Windermere and Bay Hill going to Daniel Webster's 11th now centered on The Villages. (A conservative district dominated by tourists, golfers and retirees...what a concept!)
• The GOP does get their Tampa Bay monopoly by the narrowest of margins. Kathy Castor ultimately runs in the more Democratic 15th to the east, but still narrowly loses to State Rep. Mike Beltran. Veterans Anna Paulina Luna and Jay Collins still win in the respective 13th (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) and 14th (most of Tampa, Carrollwood) districts, with eventual House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Vern Buchanan's 16th in Sarasota (where he wins north of 60% in reelection) being the closest thing to a competitive race in the outskirts of the region.
• All of Miami's three Republicans will still be reelected by favorable margins. The only other congressional change (asides from my projected victory for Dale Holness for a full term in the 20th) will be that while the 23rd will still stretch from Boca Raton and Parkland (site of that horrible school shooting in 2018) down to Fort Lauderdale and Dania Beach, it is now even more narrowly Democratic to where a stronger Republican other than what I projected enters the race and wins over Ted Deutch in what will still be a surprise pickup.

Now, back to the TL for some current events:

• A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
• Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
• Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:

• As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
• With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

There is absolutely no way on earth Jim Jordan is going to be running for Senate in 2024. If he wanted to move to the senate, he would have done so this cycle for the Portman seat. He is one of the most powerful members of the house even after he is termed out at judiciary, and isn’t giving that up to start from zero in the Senate. Will there be other GOP candidates in Ohio or will Jordan clear the field?

Also, if McConnell is trying to ensure Cameron is his replacement I think he’d wait until Beshear loses re-election in 2023 and having a governor he trusts making the pick. Or he makes sure the alternatives are unpalatable, like Matt Bevin.

[2016]

Now, back to the TL for some current events:

• A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
• Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
• Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:

• As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
• With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

Ohio is not a Toss Up anymore otherwise I agree with your Map.

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue, do keep in mind that as far as the current events in this TL are concerned, I am trying to be as realistic as possible even though I am widely expected to be wrong, though I can always hope I am right. That is why I'm not even going to go into the details of extraneous economic matters, such as further bank consolidations, future professional sports expansions (though I do predict the Chargers will return to San Diego, the Seattle SuperSonics and Montreal Expos will be resurrected as expansion teams and the Arizona Coyotes will have relocated to Houston within the decade), new ventures from Elon Musk beyond what I talked about in this TL earlier with regards to Mars and whatever the future may hold for the MCU (though I will say that movie theaters will be buzzing again if they aren't already IRL). I will note that 2024 is expected to be a year filled with elections: many of America's closest and longest allies and rivals - the UK, France, Russia, India, Mexico, South Africa, etc. - will be having major elections, which stands to dramatically alter the picture on foreign policy matters affecting America.

What I can predict is where the conventions are going to be held and when. In this TL, the 2024 Republican National Convention will be held at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh from August 19-22, while the Democratic National Convention will be held at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee from August 26-29, appropriately slotted between the end of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris and the start of the 2024 NFL season. The RNC's selection of Pittsburgh over Milwaukee, Nashville and Salt Lake City is seen as emblematic of western Pennsylvania's significance to presidential elections, the region having decided the election for Donald Trump in 2016, while the DNC's placement in Milwaukee is part of compensation for the 2020 DNC having been radically altered due to the pandemic. Given recent developments on the debates, it is very likely that the Commission on Presidential Debates will be disbanded, so while the format will largely stay the same save for certain changes the RNC demands, I can now assume in the TL that the debates will now be up to the hosts.

Meanwhile, after the fireworks of the 4th have died down (well, sort of)...

July 4, 2023
MIKE LINDELL LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL BID
On the 4th of July, My Pillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell launched his presidential bid on the factory floor of his company in the Twin Cities suburb of Shakopee to a crowd of several hundred supporters. Prior to the announcement, Lindell passed over full control of My Pillow to his son Darren, who already assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in 2020 as his future ambitions became evident. In his opening speech, Lindell states, "With everything going on here in America, from economic mediocrity to nonstop cancel culture to a big gap on skills and readiness to foreign policy failures, there is a great need for an outsider who rose out of nowhere to achieve the American Dream. Ladies and gentlemen, I am honored to announce I am running to be your next President, to take what Donald Trump made great, bring it back and make it even greater!"

The addition of Lindell to the race adds a political outsider to a field filled with experienced elected officials and former Trump administration insiders, but the standing out factor goes well beyond Lindell being a first-time candidate. A hardcore Trump supporter since the 2016 election, Lindell has also drawn attention for his staunch opposition to "cancel culture" and most especially his overt support for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, including claims that voting machine manufacturers colluded with foreign governments to predetermine an election victory for Biden, among other claims widely debunked across the political spectrum, even within Trumpworld. Following his announcement, Lindell's rival Republican candidates respond to the news by acknowledging the prevalence of voter fraud while dismissing the notion that the election had been stolen. Lindell is unfazed, stating "Okay, we know Biden's not running, but it doesn't hurt to ask questions. After all, many people do believe it wasn't a fair election, and I'll leave it at that - until the time comes."

July 7, 2023
MORE REPUBLICANS EXPLORING BIDS, OTHERS SAY NO THANKS
With the Republican field now standing at nine prominent figures so far, speculation has started to swirl around Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and whether or not he will enter the race. While some have inquired as to why DeSantis hasn't declared when others have, DeSantis's press secretary, Christina Pushaw, points out that the Governor has had to deal with matters related to adapting Florida to a post-COVID economy to ensure it stays prosperous now that other states have reopened to the heights that Florida did during the pandemic, a number of special legislative sessions to address unfinished business from his 2022 promises, and working to prepare the state for the Atlantic hurricane season which has already numbered two storms so far. Pushaw did state that "DeSantis knows that support for him is going to be wide and broad, so if he is running for President in fact, and if he does enter he is going to be a great President!"

That speculation isn't stopping others from making a decision. On Friday, following months of speculation surrounding some unusual trips back and forth across the Missouri River, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska launched an exploratory committee for President, aiming to build his campaign around fiscal conservatism and the national debt, a focus on constitutionally sound governance, and strenghtening America against the dangers of global rivals such as China. Two Georgia Republicans on opposite ends of the 2020 election debacle, Congresswoman and Trump favorite Marjorie Taylor Greene and former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, along with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, have also launched exploratory committees to "test the waters" as well. But not every Republican is moving in that direction; Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has ruled out a run, but has refrained from making an endorsement in the primary, and two Governors elected in the post-Trump era, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania, have also announced they are not running for President.

The most intriguing speculation has come from two other individuals. On Fox News's Tucker Carlson Tonight, former Secretary of State and Fox News contributor Mike Pompeo hinted that "I will be taking a good look at who's in the race so far, but while I haven't really shown interest in running for President nor thought about it, I do think there is a need for someone who will address the dangers of the world the way that Donald Trump did, but without the hesitancy some of my colleagues had after he left office", apparently taking a shot at Nikki Haley (whose reception among Trump supporters is lukewarm) and Tom Cotton (whose hawkish foreign policy stands in contrast to Trump's relatively noninterventionist stances) without mentioning their names on air. Also, on The Joe Rogan Experience, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy announced he has taken steps to consider a run for President, pointing out that "never before is America facing the kind of challenges it is facing now" and that "what I think our country needs is someone to shake things up the way Trump did, and maybe I can be the one to do it".

July 9, 2023
"MAYOR PETE" DECLARES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT ON SUNDAY MORNING
In an interview on CBS Sunday Morning, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced that he will run for President in 2024. A mild-mannered Democrat who served as the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana from 2012 to 2020, "Mayor Pete" ran as a dark horse moderate who appealed to millennials and more center-left liberals seeking an alternative to more established figures like Joe Biden and Democratic Socialist extraordinaire Bernie Sanders. While his bid ultimately came up short, Buttigieg became widely sought after for a Cabinet post in the Biden Administration if not the Vice Presidency with the former becoming true. While his tenure was short, Buttigieg's oversight of Biden's landmark infrastructure package drew attention to speculation about his future.

The interview is somewhat of a preview as Buttigieg, who aims to become the first openly gay President (though not the only such candidate as Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is in the race as well), formally launches his campaign the following Saturday in South Bend with his husband Chasten and their two children by his side and hundreds in attendance, formally introduced on stage by none other than former late night host and Indianapolis native David Letterman. Playing to the instrumental of Queen's "We Will Rock You", Buttigieg aims to counter his "nice guy" persona with a tough image of social progressivism without restraint, forward motion on economic and infrastructure fueled by strong labor policies, and "not selling out our jobs and our values overseas at the mercy of corporate tyrants". Indeed, Democratic and liberal observers are impressed, but not everyone is.

Shortly after his rally concluded, Buttigieg is slapped with a cease-and-desist order by Domino's Pizza for infringing on an old mid-90s advertising slogan, "Gotta Be, Gotta Be Domino's" (also done along the lines of the aforementioned Queen song Buttigieg used at his campaign kickoff), with an ad-libbed chant that sounded like "Gotta Be, Gotta Be Buttigieg" (highlighted by video screens at the rally that advertised "BOOT EDGE EDGE" as a play on his Maltese surname). In typical "Mayor Pete" fashion, Buttigieg, who ironically once paid a local Domino's to fill potholes in his city when he was Mayor, apologizes by agreeing to drop the use of the chant at future rallies and then placing a large order of Domino's Pizza for his entire staff the following Monday at his South Bend campaign headquarters.

Next up: the one everyone's been waiting for in this TL...

[SaintStan86]

Been reading the interesting replies with regards to Ohio as well as McConnell's decision to step aside. Of course, people are going to argue that Jim Jordan to the Senate can be seen as a downgrade of sorts given his profile in the House, but in this TL Jordan was widely expected to bring up subpoenas on the Biden Administration and the Biden family itself, with the intent of embarrassing the administration even further after the big losses the Democrats endured. With Biden no longer running and the appetite for impeachment having faded, Jordan's work is more quiet than he expected it to be save for questions surrounding Merrick Garland's use of the Patriot Act to target parents battling their local school boards and those who stormed the Capitol on 1/6. At the same time, Jordan is viewed as one of the stronger potential candidates to take on Sherrod Brown in the eyes of some, and considering that conservative activists are going to be all-in on steering the Senate in a conservative direction now that McConnell is gone, a Jim Jordan candidacy isn't going to be out of the blue, and of course he will not be the only one running on the Republican side (we'll get to that later in this TL). After all, I'm sure Jim Jordan is going to find the thought of giving probing questions to future judicial nominees - including for SCOTUS given Alito and Thomas aren't getting any younger - too tempting to pass up a future Senate run against Sherrod Brown. And yes, Ohio is going to start out as a swing state because it is unclear whether or not the blue-collar voters in the northeast of the state (or rather, the potential future state of Western Reserve?) and along the Ohio River will be as inclined to vote Republican as they did for Trump, whose appeal to blue-collar voters was quite unique and included a large number of Democrats who otherwise would have voted for Bernie Sanders had he been the nominee.

Speaking of McConnell, the law in Kentucky in fact has changed IRL with regards to how Gov. Beshear is going to appoint McConnell's replacement; the heavily Republican Kentucky Legislature overrode Beshear's veto in fact last March (link below). Consider that Daniel Cameron is a rising star in the GOP, not only within Kentucky but also nationally as well to the point where national ambitions like the U.S. Senate are more fitting than Beshear's relatively low profile governorship, and also given that Cameron is not likely to be running for Governor in 2023 (for now). To that end, Beshear is going to look for a way to make his next term should he win it less painful knowing that Cameron is going to battle him on a lot of things (whether it's over current topics like abortion, Breonna Taylor, critical race theory, the treatment of horses at Churchill Downs, any election fraud claims Trump or his supporters bring up or even theories surrounding old stuff from years ago like the tragic fire at the Beverly Hills Supper Club in northern Kentucky way back in 1977), and appointing Cameron would be a win-win, not only for conservatives eager to see an additional Black Republican in the Senate with strong conservative ambitions, but also for Democrats who would like Beshear to not only have an easier path to reelection, but also rid himself of his biggest potential obstacle in governing his Commonwealth.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kentucky-state-lawmakers-override-veto-to-strip-away-governors-power-to-fill-u-s-senate-vacancies-01617137255

[SaintStan86]

July 15, 2023
GOV. RON DeSANTIS ENTERS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL FIELD
In front of a jubilant crowd on the downtown waterfront in his native Jacksonville, Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis launched his campaign for the Republican nomination for President on Saturday. Elected to Congress in 2012 as a conservative reformer, and then winning the race for Governor in a very close race in 2018, DeSantis has established himself as one of the most popular large-state governors in the country despite taking considerable heat during the COVID-19 pandemic from critics who argued his low-key approach to handling the pandemic, overt focus on free markets at the expense of public health, and close relations to Donald Trump was doing a disservice to his state. Nonetheless, DeSantis was reelected by a healthy margin in 2022 and has been the speculation of many a presidential campaign discussion, especially after former President Donald Trump decided to not to run again in 2024.

In his introductory speech, the former Yale baseball player and Harvard Law School grad-turned-Naval Reserve JAG and Guantanamo Bay prosecutor declared, "As Governor of the great state of Florida, our state has become a "shining state on a hill" where opportunities are endless, families and businesses are flourishing, and residents are prospering at unprecedented levels". DeSantis continues, "As your next President, I will take the lessons learned and accomplishments made here in Florida, and bring that to all of America." Building a campaign around combined elements of "America First" and "Tea Party" economic principles, a strong defense of the Constitution, and a "peace through strength" foreign policy, DeSantis is seen as one of the frontrunners and has already scored early endorsements, with term-limited Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry endorsing the Governor. DeSantis also wins the endorsements of Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who like DeSantis also was hesitant to enforce COVID restrictions during the pandemic, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a favorite of Trump and Tea Party conservatives alike.

With DeSantis's announcement, the Republican primary has now evolved into a race of "Big 4" candidates: DeSantis, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and former Vice President Mike Pence, with several others competing in the second tier of candidates and others continuing to explore bids as well.

July 18, 2023
HILLARY CLINTON WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
In an announcement to her supporters, former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced she will not run again for President. In announcing her widely anticipated decision, Clinton remarked, "There is still a lot of unfinished business when it comes to fair elections, a dynamic economy that works for everyone, and a society where dignity and decency are the norm, rule and standard, not the exception. At the same time, it is clear that Americans want to turn the page from the disastrous policies of Donald Trump, and while he has chosen to move on and not run for President again, his supporters still remain the same. To that extent, I will not be endorsing a candidate for President yet, and I myself will not be running for President in 2024."

Following news of Clinton's announcement, many high profile Democrats including President Biden, former President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle, Vice President Kamala Harris and Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton, take time to honor the former Secretary of State, with Bill remarking "My wife remains the most beautiful and most accomplished woman in the world, and I am forever grateful for her dedication to public service which will persist for generations to come". Not surprisingly, critics of the Clintons react in their usual tones, with Donald Trump remarking, "Thank you very much for your desire to serve our great country...Best wishes in your retirement. Hopefully, this is the last time Americans have to be bothered by both of you!"

July 23, 2023
SEN. SASSE ENDS EXPLORATORY BID, MAKES PRESIDENTIAL RUN OFFICIAL
On a Sunday afternoon at the Heartland of America Park in downtown Omaha with a small lake and the not-too-distant Missouri River shoreline behind him, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska ripped the "expioratory" tag off his campaign and made his presidential bid official. Speaking before a crowd of hundreds, Sasse remarked, "With a generation of past leaders who sought division over integrity and sentiment over logic now fading out, the time is now for a new breed of conservative leadership rooted in clear principles free of craven desires for power. That is why I am proud to announce my candidacy for President of the United States, fittingly right here in the Heartland of America Park."

Known for his outspoken criticism of Donald Trump, whom the 51-year-old Sasse voted to convict in the second impeachment trial following the attack on the Capitol (and in the process, drawing fire from county parties and Trump supporters in his state), Sasse has nonetheless compiled a conservative voting record since his ascendence from President of Midland University, a Lutheran college in the town of Fremont that he helped to revive, to being elected to the Senate in 2014 on the backs of Tea Party support. Notably, Sasse's 2020 reelection, in which he beat back a Trumpian primary challenger to eventually defeat a scandal-plagued Democratic opponent, represented the largest over performance of any Republican Senate candidate that year, with Sasse even winning the Omaha-based 2nd District won by Joe Biden that year.

Nonetheless, while Sasse has gained a sizable amount of support from most conservatives in his state (especially with Trump no longer in the picture) and has gained plaudits for his "laser focus" on the national debt, China and free-market solutions to economic and environmental problems as well as his and his wife's decision to homeschool their three children, his vote to convict Trump is viewed as a liability in some conservative circles (especially those on the more populist and nationalist side of the conservative ledger), and many political pundits and prognosticators put Sasse's chances at near zero, with one source speculating "Maybe he'll peak in Iowa where he'll benefit and already does from TV exposure in Sioux City and Council Bluffs (Omaha TV market), but that's it".

[SaintStan86]

July 27, 2023
FORMER COMMERCE SEC. RAIMONDO JOINS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Shortly after resigning her post as President Biden's Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President in an e-mail blast to her mailing list grandfathered from her days as Governor of Rhode Island, the first female to hold that title. A former venture capitalist whose first brush with politics came as a childhood friend to future U.S. Senator Jack Reed (who has endorsed her campaign), Raimondo combined an overall liberal agenda with business-friendly policies and robust funding for education and healthcare as Governor, rising to strong approval ratings during the COVID-19 pandemic after initially being seen as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country before her ascendence into the Biden Administration. Making the announcement virtually from her home in Providence, Raimondo announces, "A new generation is leadership is answering the call to lead our country. As your next President, I will work to keep America ahead of the curve for future generations to come. I worked with President Biden to rebuild our economy in the wake of the pandemic, and as President I will make our imperfect union even more perfect."

Building her campaign around socially liberal policies, a strong social safety net, robust infrastructure spending and business-friendly policies not unlike her tenure as Governor (and in some cases drawing comparisons to the neoliberal "New Democrat" governance of former President Bill Clinton, as well as more recent world leaders such as Canada's Justin Trudeau and France's Emmanuel Macron), Raimondo aims to fill what some consider the "corporate Democrat" vacuum within the Democratic primary field. However, liberal pundits are not convinced; asides from the aforementioned unpopularity issues early in Raimondo's tenure, Raimondo's campaign is given slim to zero chances of winning the Democratic nomination, with one pundit arguing, "Given how sharply the Democrats have moved to the left on economics since Obama, I don't see how Raimondo's 'Wall Street Democrat' vibe is going to register in a party dominated by blue-collar liberals like Joe Biden and radicals like AOC".

July 27, 2023
TUCKER CARLSON: I HAVE BETTER THINGS TO DO
Ending months of speculation as to will he or won't he run for President, Fox News host Tucker Carlson made it official: he will not be a candidate for President in 2024, and admitted he would have made the decision regardless of whether or not Donald Trump ran (which over a month ago was officially a no from Trump himself) and would have run either as a Republican or an independent. Instead, Carlson announces on his show, "All this talk of running for President is just silly talk. As a primetime host of the most popular primetime show on cable news, if not all of cable TV not counting the NFL and college football, I believe that where I am here on Fox News is where I thrive the most. And if you're doing so well, why even entertain walking away? I have better things to do."

Carlson also announced he plans to play a major role in the network's presidential coverage, including its debates citing, "It is important that our President is someone who is committed to fighting for American workers and standing up to the CCP and their disastrous regime, as well as American corporations and other profiteers who only serve to benefit their bottom line at the expense of you, the American people. 2024 is supposed to be a glorious year for Republicans and conservatives...and my goal will be to make sure it stays that way." Carlson isn't the only one making his decision clear in the last month asides from Ron DeSantis, Ben Sasse, Gina Raimondo and others on both sides of the aisle. Entrepreneur, TV host and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban also announced he will not be a candidate. While also admitting he would have run as an independent or a libertarian-leaning Republican, Cuban states, "I have better things to do other than run for President. Like Shark Tank and making fun of Mr. Wonderful (Kevin O'Leary) for being the token right-wing extremist on our little show."

On the Democratic side, former New Orleans Mayor-turned-Biden infrastructure czar Mitch Landrieu and Govs. Phil Murphy of New Jersey and Andy Beshear of Kentucky also said no thanks to a presidential run (with Murphy endorsing Kamala Harris), while Republican Govs. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Sean Duffy of Wisconsin rejected calls to run as well, with Sununu announcing in ending his exploratory bid for President that running "would carry less intrinsic value than any potential endorsement in our famous first-in-the-nation primary". Two Georgia Republicans on opposite ends of their state's presidential debacle from 2020 also ended their exploratory bids for President, with former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan instead choosing to focus on his Republican "reform initiative" and Marjorie Taylor Greene instead raising eyebrows by endorsing businessman Mike Lindell for the Republican nomination, with whom she is open to running as Lindell's running mate. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo does make attention though by announcing he is taking a leave of absence from Fox News to "pursue a big opportunity" with speculating as to whether or not it's for the presidency. However, Pompeo would have to act soon as Fox News has set August 15th as the deadline for participation in the first RNC-sanctioned debate out of fifteen announced; even though Pompeo has registered in some polls, he is also absent from some key ones Fox intends to use to determine eligibility.

August 2, 2023
PORTNOY PRESIDENTIAL TALK? IT'S ALL A RUSE...BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!
During an announcement at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio for the official kickoff of the NFL preseason, the annual Hall of Fame Game, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy announced that he will not be running for President after all; in fact, he admits that while he would have benefited from being "the Lone Ranger in the entire presidential field", Portnoy admits that he had no serious intentions about running for President. Instead, Portnoy takes the opportunity given to him at Canton to announce the launch of Barstool Sports TV (BS.TV), a new digital multicast sports network in conjunction with Nexstar Media Group, one of the nation's largest broadcast station owners, that will serve as an "effective counterweight" to Sinclair Broadcast Group's Stadium network and the Bally Sports regional sports networks (which Sinclair has a stake in). Nexstar also recently acquired the regional sports networks of Comcast and NBC Sports Group, which will become part of a renamed chain of networks that Portnoy plans to exercise maximum creative control in.

Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made a special announcement of a "big event" at Wichita State University on Saturday, leading many to speculate that Pompeo will become the 12th Republican in the primary field for President. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar also makes an announcement late in the afternoon of a Saturday rally to announce her future intentions - whether to run for reelection to the U.S. Senate as the 7th Democrat to run or to make a second run for President, and that her decision will be 'an all-in decision', meaning that if she were to run for President she would leave her Senate seat in Minnesota open. Two third-party bids have also become the subject of much speculation: radio shock-jock Howard Stern and businessman Andrew Yang have reportedly hired political consultants to test the waters of third-party presidential runs, with Yang intending to run under the banner of his new Forward Party, which some Democratic operatives fear is "an opportunity to further divide the Democratic electorate and hand over the presidency to the GOP".

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE 1: Alabama's redistricting plan has been struck down by a federal panel of three judges - two of them Trump appointees - over VRA concerns. This likely means that Alabama will have two districts where a Black candidate of choice (very likely a Democrat) has a fighting chance to win a congressional seat: the usual 7th District in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, plus a reworked 2nd District stretching across the Black Belt from Montgomery to Mobile. If this comes to pass, I wouldn't be shocked if longtime Republican Mike Rogers from the 3rd decides to retire as he hasn't declared if he's going to run or not (The 2nd's current incumbent, freshman Republican Barry Moore, who is a Trumpian conservative, has already declared he's running for a second term). While there is a chance that this prototypical new 2nd may be competitive (it is about as Democratic as the area G.K. Butterfield is vacating in North Carolina), I'm not holding my breath and predict the new 2nd will be a narrow Democratic pickup.
UPDATE 2: In Tennessee Jim Cooper has decided to retire instead of face likely defeat in his new 5th which has been dragged into eastern Williamson County and a few rural counties on the southern fringes of the Nashville market, so if this new map holds up it looks like the Democrats will be reduced to their one seat in Memphis.
Overall, consider the new updates in Alabama and Tennessee an even swap of partisan control in what will (in this TL) remain a robust Republican majority.

August 4, 2023
SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR MAKES SECOND RUN FOR PRESIDENT
In front of a large crowd in Minneapolis early Saturday afternoon, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy as the 7th Democrat to enter the presidential field. This is not the first time for the three-term Minnesota Senator, as she ran in 2020 as a center-left "Midwest Moderate" who emphasized a public option for healthcare, consumer protection and advocacy, and a populist economic package centered on infrastructure and agriculture, while opposing such progressive causes as free college tuition and a "Green New Deal". In carrying forth that same message for the 2024 race, Klobuchar also announced to her audience, "I have decided to go all-in for America. That is why I will be focusing my efforts on running to be YOUR President and not returning to the Senate after this election."

With the announcement, Klobuchar aims to compete with Pete Buttigieg for the aforementioned "Midwest Moderate" vote, with progressives largely favoring Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Kamala Harris (the latter of whom has a large lead with nonwhite voters). Though polling in the single digits, Klobuchar's team insists that, "Once Americans see the whole picture of what's at stake, especially with the dangerous legacy of Donald Trump continuing on without him, they will see the need for a pragmatic progressive consensus builder. That is who Amy is, and voters should expect nothing more, nothing less". Klobuchar's decision to forego reelection to the Senate also opens up her seat to a wide-open primary with two speculated candidates, Democratic DFL U.S. Rep and original "Squad" member Ilhan Omar and Republican businessman and current presidential candidate Mike Lindell both proclaiming they will not be running for the Senate, with Lindell stating "Like Amy Klobuchar, I'm also going all-in on the White House and look forward to beating her and her attempts to try to steal the election." However, one Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate has decided to enter so far, with former Attorney General Lori Swanson and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan announcing shortly after Klobuchar's campaign kickoff that she will be a candidate for the now-open Senate seat. Other DFL candidates are expected to announce, with U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips rumored as a potential candidate as well, and several unnamed Republicans also taking a look with the NRSC now declaring Minnesota's open seat a top priority.

August 4, 2023
FORMER SEC. OF STATE POMPEO ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
At noon on Saturday, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially launched his bid for President at Charles Koch Arena on the campus of Wichita State University. The 59-year old Pompeo, who served in the Trump administration since Donald Trump's third day as President - first as Director of the CIA and later as Secretary of State, grew up in Orange County, California and eventually moved to Wichita in 1998 to lead a combined aircraft parts manufacturer and later an oilfield equipment manufacturer - both with sizable funding from local conglomerate Koch Industries. Pompeo would enter public service in the 2000s, first as a member of the Republican National Committee representing Kansas, and then as a three-term Congressman who had just been elected to a fourth term when Trump appointed Pompeo to lead the CIA upon his ascendence to the White House.

In his announcement, Pompeo intends to make foreign policy a big part of his campaign, declaring, "As Secretary of State under Donald Trump, I fought to defend America and her allies from her enemies, fought to denuclearize North Korea and Iran, and was relentless in my calling out of China and their barbaric practices. That is what "America First" and "peace through strength" look like, and you will deserve nothing less than that as your President." Pompeo also has built his campaign around "defending American manufacturing", "standing up for life from conception to death", and "putting the healthcare establishment that has steered America in too many directions when it comes to fighting COVID in their place". Pompeo also draws attention at the well-attended rally due to the attendance of the arena's namesake, Koch Industries CEO and co-owner Charles Koch and his son Chase, despite reports that Koch and his network intended to stay out of partisan politics in the post-Trump era. Within hours, Pompeo is instantly labeled "the Koch candidate" - a claim Pompeo's campaign vehemently denies, with some speculating if Pompeo's candidacy is a vehicle for Koch Industries to win further Department of Defense contracts in a potential Pompeo Administration.

[Tekken_Guy]

UPDATE 1: Alabama's redistricting plan has been struck down by a federal panel of three judges - two of them Trump appointees - over VRA concerns. This likely means that Alabama will have two districts where a Black candidate of choice (very likely a Democrat) has a fighting chance to win a congressional seat: the usual 7th District in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, plus a reworked 2nd District stretching across the Black Belt from Montgomery to Mobile. If this comes to pass, I wouldn't be shocked if longtime Republican Mike Rogers from the 3rd decides to retire as he hasn't declared if he's going to run or not (The 2nd's current incumbent, freshman Republican Barry Moore, who is a Trumpian conservative, has already declared he's running for a second term). While there is a chance that this prototypical new 2nd may be competitive (it is about as Democratic as the area G.K. Butterfield is vacating in North Carolina), I'm not holding my breath and predict the new 2nd will be a narrow Democratic pickup.
UPDATE 2: In Tennessee Jim Cooper has decided to retire instead of face likely defeat in his new 5th which has been dragged into eastern Williamson County and a few rural counties on the southern fringes of the Nashville market, so if this new map holds up it looks like the Democrats will be reduced to their one seat in Memphis.
Overall, consider the new updates in Alabama and Tennessee an even swap of partisan control in what will (in this TL) remain a robust Republican majority.

August 4, 2023
SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR MAKES SECOND RUN FOR PRESIDENT
In front of a large crowd in Minneapolis early Saturday afternoon, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy as the 7th Democrat to enter the presidential field. This is not the first time for the three-term Minnesota Senator, as she ran in 2020 as a center-left "Midwest Moderate" who emphasized a public option for healthcare, consumer protection and advocacy, and a populist economic package centered on infrastructure and agriculture, while opposing such progressive causes as free college tuition and a "Green New Deal". In carrying forth that same message for the 2024 race, Klobuchar also announced to her audience, "I have decided to go all-in for America. That is why I will be focusing my efforts on running to be YOUR President and not returning to the Senate after this election."

With the announcement, Klobuchar aims to compete with Pete Buttigieg for the aforementioned "Midwest Moderate" vote, with progressives largely favoring Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Kamala Harris (the latter of whom has a large lead with nonwhite voters). Though polling in the single digits, Klobuchar's team insists that, "Once Americans see the whole picture of what's at stake, especially with the dangerous legacy of Donald Trump continuing on without him, they will see the need for a pragmatic progressive consensus builder. That is who Amy is, and voters should expect nothing more, nothing less". Klobuchar's decision to forego reelection to the Senate also opens up her seat to a wide-open primary with two speculated candidates, Democratic DFL U.S. Rep and original "Squad" member Ilhan Omar and Republican businessman and current presidential candidate Mike Lindell both proclaiming they will not be running for the Senate, with Lindell stating "Like Amy Klobuchar, I'm also going all-in on the White House and look forward to beating her and her attempts to try to steal the election." However, one Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate has decided to enter so far, with Lieutenant Governor Lori Swanson announcing shortly after Klobuchar's campaign kickoff that she will be a candidate for the now-open Senate seat.

August 4, 2023
FORMER SEC. OF STATE POMPEO ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
At noon on Saturday, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially launched his bid for President at Charles Koch Arena on the campus of Wichita State University. The 59-year old Pompeo, who served in the Trump administration since Donald Trump's third day as President - first as Director of the CIA and later as Secretary of State, grew up in Orange County, California and eventually moved to Wichita in 1998 to lead a combined aircraft parts manufacturer and later an oilfield equipment manufacturer - both with sizable funding from local conglomerate Koch Industries. Pompeo would enter public service in the 2000s, first as a member of the Republican National Committee representing Kansas, and then as a three-term Congressman who had just been elected to a fourth term when Trump appointed Pompeo to lead the CIA upon his ascendence to the White House.

In his announcement, Pompeo intends to make foreign policy a big part of his campaign, declaring, "As Secretary of State under Donald Trump, I fought to defend America and her allies from her enemies, fought to denuclearize North Korea and Iran, and was relentless in my calling out of China and their barbaric practices. That is what "America First" and "peace through strength" look like, and you will deserve nothing less than that as your President." Pompeo also has built his campaign around "defending American manufacturing", "standing up for life from conception to death", and "putting the healthcare establishment that has steered America in too many directions when it comes to fighting COVID in their place". Pompeo also draws attention at the well-attended rally due to the attendance of the arena's namesake, Koch Industries CEO and co-owner Charles Koch and his son Chase, despite reports that Koch and his network intended to stay out of partisan politics in the post-Trump era. Within hours, Pompeo is instantly labeled "the Koch candidate" - a claim Pompeo's campaign vehemently denies, with some speculating if Pompeo's candidacy is a vehicle for Koch Industries to win further Department of Defense contracts in a potential Pompeo Administration.

Re: MN -- Lori Swanson is the former AG. The current LG is Peggy Flanagan. Which one did you mean? Or are they both running? Also, is Dean Phillips running? What about Keith Ellison (BTW did Ellison win re-election in 2022)?

[Vice President Christian Man]

Nice timeline. Can't wait to hear more.

[SaintStan86]

Re: MN -- Lori Swanson is the former AG. The current LG is Peggy Flanagan. Which one did you mean? Or are they both running? Also, is Dean Phillips running? What about Keith Ellison (BTW did Ellison win re-election in 2022)?

Sorry about that. Was in a rush for a non-Atlasia matter so I forgot to double check and do some more research before going to the draft for the next part. Already corrected that. But Swanson is in as a three-term former AG who largely comes from the establishment cloth within the DFL, having run against Gov. Walz with Duluth-area Rep. Rick Nolan in 2018 when Mark Dayton left the Governor's Mansion open.

Peggy Flanagan has also entered, not because of you mentioning the name or the correction, but because upon Klobuchar's decision to run for President, Flanagan enters - even over criticism that her position has turned into a stepping stone of sorts (Dayton's former LG, Tina Smith, is now serving IRL in the other Senate seat) - as a progressive in the mold of two notable progressives she once worked for, Paul Wellstone and Al Franken. But they are not the only ones and when the Senate comes up, there will be more to explain. I'm not going to explain much about Ellison except I probably will be shocked if he is reelected, and in this TL he will have narrowly lost to Republican Doug Wardlow (who Ellison defeated in 2018 when the wave was a clearly different one) despite criticism over Wardlow's connections to Mike Lindell and the latter's election crusade; if the Democrat (or to use a more local term, DFLer) were a more restrained candidate with a less controversial history than Ellison, Wardlow probably would have narrowly lost IRL and in this TL.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

I want stern to run just to see what it would be like