2024 - A Blank Canvas

[SaintStan86]

In true Barenaked Ladies fashion, it's been One Week since the primary bells tolled at us. Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon - all states with no Senate races - have their congressional primaries, and the latter two have vanity presidential contests, too...

KENTUCKY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

45 pledged delegates - including 29 from Kentucky's six congressional districts - will be awarded in tonight's Democratic primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 61.41 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 38.59 percent went to other candidates, including 18.41 who voted Uncommitted)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Paducah, Campbellsville & Frankfort (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Uncommitted 1
CD2/Bowling Green, Fisherville & Owensboro (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Uncommitted 1
CD3/Louisville (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8
CD4/Newport, Shelbyville & Vanceburg (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD5/Somerset, Morehead & Pikeville (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Uncommitted 1
CD6/Lexington, Richmond & Flemingsburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Uncommitted 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Uncommitted 1
At-Large Delegates (10 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Uncommitted 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2030 delegates +38 from Kentucky
Elizabeth Warren - 794 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris wins over 60 percent of the vote and 38 pledged delegates in the Bluegrass State, but of the other nearly 39 percent who voted, nearly half (18 percent) voted Uncommitted, including over 25 percent in many parts of rural Kentucky - an unprecedented number. Harris is only able to sweep delegate counts in the most urban and suburban districts in the state - the 3rd District in Louisville and the 4th District primarily centered in the Northern Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. No other candidate crossed 15 percent in congressional districts, and the seven delegates not won by Harris are all Uncommitted to any particular candidate.

KENTUCKY
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

In one of the few states with more Republican delegates than pledged Democratic ones, 46 delegates will be awarded in tonight's primary, including 18 at the congressional level. Candidates receiving at least 15 percent of the vote will be awarded delegates proportionally based on the statewide vote.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 78.62 percent (46 delegates)
Candace Owens - 4.14 percent
(Remaining 17.24 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1369 delegates +46 from Kentucky
Nikki Haley - 386 delegates
Mike Pence - 317 delegates
Ted Cruz - 71 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Ben Sasse - 56 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis won a whopping 78.62 percent of the vote in tonight's Kentucky primary, and won all of the state's 46 delegates.

Much later in the night, as the late night shows conclude on the East Coast and the late news is about to start on the West Coast...

OREGON
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Oregon Democrats will award 56 pledged delegates to qualifying candidates in tonight's closed caucuses, with the action largely centered on postmarks and other hallmarks of the state's mail-in ballot-dominated primary.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 58.58 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 41.42 percent went to other candidates, including 24.15 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Portland (west of the Willamette), Beaverton & Astoria (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/Medford, Pendleton & Ontario (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Portland (east of the Willamette), Happy Valley & Hood River (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 3
CD4/Eugene, Corvallis & Roseburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/Lake Oswego, Albany & Bend (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Tualatin, McMinnville & Salem (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
At-Large Delegates (12 delegates):
Kamala Harris 12

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2076 delegates +46 from Oregon
Elizabeth Warren - 804 delegates +10 from Oregon
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris also failed to crack 60 percent in Oregon, where Warren continued to show strength despite dropping out last March with over 24 percent of the vote, most of it concentrated in and around Portland as well as the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis. Warren's continued show of strength in racking up delegates is likely to foretell strong progressive headwinds leading up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

OREGON
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

34 delegates will be awarded in tonight's closed Republican presidential primary to qualifying candidates in Oregon. Candidates will be awarded delegates based on the proportional results statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 71.76 percent (46 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.01 percent
(Remaining 26.23 percent went to other candidates, including 10.34 for Ben Sasse, 7.43 for Nikki Haley, 4.26 for Mike Pence, and 1.61 for Ted Cruz)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1393 delegates +24 from Oregon
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates +3 from Oregon
Mike Pence - 318 delegates +1 from Oregon
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates +1 from Oregon
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates +4 from Oregon
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates +1 from Oregon
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 20 delegates will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis turned in another dominating performance, but only won 24 of 34 delegates as Oregon's Republican delegates are proportionally allocated to all candidates based on the overall statewide results. Sasse wins another four delegates to overtake former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan for fifth place in total delegates, while Haley gains three additional delegates and Pence, Cruz and Owens each earn a delegate as well.

Asides from the two vanity presidential primaries on both sides, there are no Senate or gubernatorial races held statewide and only a handful of notable congressional battles. The most significant congressional contests of the night are in Oregon, where Democrats picked candidates to take on three freshmen Republicans in marginal districts. The most vulnerable of the three is Alek Skarlatos whose 4th District contains the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis - both strongholds for Sen. Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic presidential ledger tonight, but otherwise is dominated by mostly coastal exurban and agrarian territory. In that district, former State Sen. Chris Edwards, who graduated from Oregon State University in the latter college town and runs his family's forestry products business, prevailed out of a crowded Democratic field and will give Skarlatos a formidable matchup in November. In two other districts stretching from Portland's southern suburbs and exurbs to as far south as Salem and Bend, Democrats also selected candidates with progressive attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner drawing a rematch against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the equally competitive Clackamas-to-Bend 5th District and freshman Rep. Mike Erickson defending his Tualatin-to-Salem 6th District against businessman Cody Reynolds, who finished a distant third for the same district's Democratic primary in 2022. The biggest race of the night, though, was in the heavily Democratic 3rd District connecting most of Portland east of the Willamette River to as far east as Hood River and south as rural Clackamas County. In that district, progressive former Portland City Council member Steve Novick - known for his short, 4'9" stature and hook in lieu of a left hand (hence his slogan "The Fighter with the Hard Left Hook") - emerged out of a crowded Democratic field of over a dozen candidates to win his primary that represents the "real" contest in the heavily progressive district being vacated by retiring Democrat Earl Blumenauer, even though Novick himself will have a nominal Republican opponent in November.

In Kentucky, voters in the predominantly rural, working-class 5th District that connects historically Republican southern Kentucky to eastern Kentucky's "Coal Country" (once a rural Democratic stronghold that moved rightward in recent years) selected their nominee to succeed retiring 22-term Republican Hal Rogers, picking State Sen. Brandon Smith out of a crowded GOP field to take on Democratic former State Rep. Angie Hatton, who lost her historically Democratic district in Pike County despite holding the title of State House Minority Whip at the time of her 2022 defeat, while Republicans in the Louisville-based 3rd District nominated Louisville Metro Council member Kevin Kramer to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Morgan McGarvey. And in Idaho's 2nd District connecting eastern Idaho to most of the city of Boise, conservative attorney and two-time candidate Bryan Smith makes the third time a charm, winning the GOP nomination to become the favorite to succeed retiring incumbent Mike Simpson, who Smith lost to in 2014 and 2022 despite earning just under 40 percent of the vote in both elections. Arkansas also held its general primary elections on Tuesday, with all of its four GOP incumbents renominated and favored to win reelection in November including French Hill from the Little Rock-based 2nd District, who avoided a vigorous primary challenge unlike in 2022 when he faced a competitive challenger from his right.

[SaintStan86]

Fast forward to the weekend, as Georgia's general primary and Texas's primary runoff looms...

May 25, 2024
GREENE (BARELY) OVER 40 PERCENT IN GEORGIA AS KEY NAMES SPLIT IN TEXAS SENATE RUNOFFS
A new poll showing firebrand GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene slightly over 40 percent in her northwest Georgia-based 14th District has cast new doubt into whether or not her outsized personality and weight amongst the far right of the Republican Party will translate into winning the GOP nomination in pursuit of a third term in Congress. Despite winning 69.5 percent of the vote in her 2022 primary run, fending off a number of GOP challengers in the process, Greene may have alienated a sizable number of conservatives in her district due to her penchant for controversy but most especially her entertaining the possibility of serving as a running mate for MyPillow kingpin Mike Lindell, who is now running for President under the Constitution Party banner after failing to gain any traction in the Republican presidential primary, as well as actually flirting with the possibility of running for reelection under the Constitution Party banner. This has resulted in two vigorous primary challengers in the GOP primary, with a new poll showing Greene with 42 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for her 2020 primary runoff opponent, neurosurgeon John Cowan (who has been endorsed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp) and 20 percent for former GOP spox Andrea Saul, who most recently worked as a Vice President of Global Communications for Meta's Instagram division but may best be remembered for her work as the chief spokesperson for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.

If Greene were to accept Lindell's invitation to serve as his running mate, it would not prevent her from running for reelection to Congress, but it would draw qualms from some Republicans who would prefer their member of Congress focus on their interests instead of "chasing a pipe dream", that "pipe dream" being a third-party presidential run. However, Greene has reiterated that her focus is on running for reelection as a Republican to her congressional seat, and cited near-unified support from conservatives for her reelection bid, "No one has fought harder for America First and for conservatives than I have, and the overwhelming support I have for my reelection shows".

Meanwhile, the runoff for the open Senate seat of Ted Cruz in Texas has generated another split beyond the expected newspaper endorsement split between the Houston Chronicle's endorsement of locally-based U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw and his Dallas-based rival and fellow U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden's endorsement by The Dallas Morning News. Crenshaw received the endorsement of former Ambassador Nikki Haley and former U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (who served as the permanent representative to NATO under former President Donald Trump), both endorsements that further strengthen Crenshaw's support from foreign policy hawks, while Gooden received the endorsements of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (who worked with Gooden during the latter's time in the Texas House of Representatives) and conservative activist Michael Quinn Sullivan (who had been critical of what he described as "a middling tenure in Austin but has since become a stalwart conservative in Washington"). The Texas airwaves have also been dominated by numerous negative and defensive ads between the two candidates, with Crenshaw accusing Gooden of "shortchanging our military at the worst possible time" and Gooden blasting Crenshaw for "continuing to put other countries first when fellow Texans are still struggling with Bidenflation". However, the most recent Trafalgar Group poll puts Crenshaw up by 9 points, though Gooden has pointed to several polls that put his campaign "within the margin of error".

The Democratic runoff between former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro and retired astronaut Scott Kelly has also dominated the Texas airwaves as well, with a major focus being on gun control. On that issue, Castro touted his efforts to curb gun violence as Mayor of San Antonio as well as during his time in the Obama administration, and boasted in a recent debate that his leadership on the issue would not only bring Hispanic voters (particularly those from border counties who shifted dramatically towards the GOP in recent years) back to the Democratic Party, but also would have saved Kelly's sister-in-law, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona (who was critically wounded and partially disabled following a mass shooting at a constituent meeting in her suburban Tucson congressional district in 2011), from getting shot. This did not sit well with Kelly, who responded "Voters at the border, in fact voters all across Texas don't think of what my opponent championed when it comes to ending gun violence, they think of El Paso and Uvalde, where Hispanic families and children were targeted based on their race", and slammed Castro for "taking advantage of my brother's and in-laws' suffering to hide from the fact that his campaign will not defeat whichever NRA apologist wins the GOP nomination". While the winner of Tuesday's Democratic runoff is likely to be an underdog in a state where Ron DeSantis has opened up a 10-point lead on Kamala Harris, Democrats are hoping that "optimistic polling that has Democrats outperforming Harris downballot" will be a boon to their side in November.

Fast forward to Tuesday...where voters in Texas and Georgia have spoken and the chips have already fallen...

May 28, 2024
CRENSHAW DEFEATS GOODEN, WILL FACE CASTRO IN NOVEMBER
U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw won a contentious Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by two-term incumbent and presidential candidate Ted Cruz on Tuesday night, defeating fellow U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden with over 55 percent of the vote. Speaking before an audience in The Woodlands, north of Houston, Crenshaw declared "Tonight, the Republicans of Texas made clear who they would like to see serving our interests in the Senate, and they voted for strong leadership both at home and abroad, that inspires and lights the fire in each of us". Crenshaw's strongest support, of course, came in the Houston area for which he represents the area's northern suburbs including the aforementioned planned community of The Woodlands, as well as Kingwood and Spring (home to the headquarters of ExxonMobil), winning upwards of 60 percent of the vote in vote-rich, heavily Republican Montgomery County. Crenshaw also racked up sizable margins with Latino voters both in border counties and in the major urban cores, a move further highlighted by Crenshaw's past upbringing in Ecuador and Colombia and fluent Spanish (with Crenshaw even appearing, and communicating, in Spanish-language ads himself) as well as his stepmother, whom Crenshaw's father married after his mother died of cancer in his childhood, being Hispanic herself.

Gooden, meanwhile performed most strongly in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, winning just over 60 percent in Collin County and in his 5th District, which stretches from northeast Dallas to several exurban and rural counties east of the city, and also outperformed Crenshaw in west Texas, winning Amarillo and Lubbock among other areas, along with several counties along the Red River border with Oklahoma and every congressional district in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. However, Crenshaw's strong performance in the aforementioned border counties, as well as in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and in areas near Houston such as Beaumont and Corpus Christi, was too much for Gooden to overcome. Despite a campaign that at times was bitter and hostile, at his watch party at the Hilton Anatole north of downtown Dallas, Gooden congratulated Crenshaw and thanked his supporters for running "the most effective and hardworking grassroots campaign Texans have ever seen", urging his supporters to "get behind Dan Crenshaw and help him defeat the radical leftist machine that will further destroy Texas and America, and grind it into the mushy paste that Venezuela has been reduced to. We can't let that happen".

The aforementioned I-35 corridor also proved to be the ace in the hole for former San Antonio Mayor and HUD Secretary Julián Castro in his even narrower victory in the Democratic runoff for the same Senate seat, winning 52 percent of the vote to just over 47 percent for his rival, retired astronaut Scott Kelly, whose strong performance in the Dallas and Houston areas as well as in rural west and east Texas could not overcome Castro's edge in heavily Hispanic areas across the state (both in urban Texas and along the Rio Grande) and in his hometown of San Antonio. "Tonight, the people of Texas have spoken loud and clear who the right choice for the Senate should be, and as your next U.S. Senator for this great state, we are going to make history!", Castro declared to a jubilant crowd at the Marriott Rivercenter hotel in San Antonio as the results from early voting showed Castro with a sizable lead. Meanwhile, as the night wore on Kelly, speaking before his watch party at the South Shore Harbour Resort & Conference Center in League City (outside Houston and near the Johnson Space Center), thanked his supporters while also throwing his support behind Castro and "vowing to do everything it takes to defeat Ron DeSantis and Dan Crenshaw, and send the Republicans packing this November".

May 28, 2024
TEXAS VOTERS DECIDE RUNOFFS FOR CRUCIAL CONGRESSIONAL RACES; GREENE SURVIVES IN GEORGIA
Tuesday's high-profile Senate runoffs were far from the only races on the ballot in Texas Tuesday night, as several congressional runoffs were also decided in districts, some of which were radically altered after a court-ordered redistricting forced changes. The most significant battle was in the north suburban Houston-based 36th District (formerly the 2nd District) being vacated by now-Republican U.S. Senate nominee Dan Crenshaw, where Republican strategist and former Crenshaw adviser Matthew Wiltshire won a contentious GOP runoff against former Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector and Houston City Council member Mike Sullivan in a race that went well beyond the generation gap as the millennial Wiltshire (a former national committeeman for the Texas Young Republicans) attacked the baby boomer Sullivan for being "disconnected from reality in regards to America First and our economic futures" with regards to Sullivan's recent public affairs work with Group 1 Automotive, a leading Houston-based owner of automotive dealerships that has butted heads with Elon Musk's Tesla over direct sales of automobiles, while Sullivan blasted Wiltshire for "carrying the water of establishment Republicans" and also made references to Pace picante sauce in a jab at Wiltshire's upbringing in the New York City suburbs.

However, Wiltshire benefited from his endorsement by Crenshaw as well as from Harris County Judge Alexandra Mealer and the President of The Woodlands Township, Gordy Bunch, all of which held valuable street cred with younger Republicans throughout the predominantly suburban district, and overcame Sullivan's endorsements from various legacy Republicans in Harris and Montgomery counties, including venerable conservative power brokers Steven Hotze and Gary Polland, as well as State Sen. Paul Bettencourt (who held the same position Sullivan held for four years before losing it in 2016 as Donald Trump's poor performance in Harris County doomed Republicans countywide). Wiltshire won 52 percent to Sullivan's 47 percent, and is now a strong favorite against Democratic nonprofit executive Abby Whitmire in November as the district (which connects the prosperous, solidly GOP master-planned communities of The Woodlands and Kingwood, the latter itself part of the city of Houston) voted 2-1 for Donald Trump in 2020.

Crenshaw's district wasn't the only Houston area congressional district where a runoff was decided Tuesday. In the 7th District, now reconfigured as a west and southwest Houston swing district after previously being shifted into a Democratic stronghold the previous cycle by the Texas Legislature (in a gerrymander criticized not only by Democrats but also by some conservatives who derided the previous redistricting as a "wussymander"), Bush family scion Pierce Bush, grandson of the former President George H.W. Bush who once held the district decades ago, won a competitive primary against former Houston City Council member Greg Travis with 55 percent of the vote and will take on three-term incumbent Lizzie Fletcher, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the upcoming election, in November. The runoff for an open Democratic seat in southwest Houston was also decided as former Houston City Council member Edward Pollard (who was forced to resign his position by law) edged out State Rep. Shawn Thierry for the Democratic nomination in the 25th District (formerly the 9th) vacated by retiring Rep. Al Green, a victory tantamount to election in the overwhelmingly Democratic, Black-Hispanic coalition district that connects across southwest and southern portions of Houston including neighborhoods surrounding the Texas Medical Center.

In the suburbs south of Houston, the 9th District (nominally the old 14th) in Houston's southeast suburbs anchored in heavily Republican Galveston County saw State Sen. Mayes Middleton benefit from endorsements by Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence, as well as from the conservative Texas Scorecard news organization run by Michael Quinn Sullivan, which helped Middleton to overcome a fierce challenge from Galveston County Judge Mark Henry by a 56-43 margin; Middleton will be heavily favored to win the open, heavily Republican district that stretches from Galveston to southeast and eastern suburbs of Houston including Clear Lake City (home to the Johnson Space Center, and also technically part of Houston itself). And in the nearby 14th District from Houston's southern suburbs (Sugar Land, Missouri City, Pearland, Lake Jackson) to several rural counties west of the city, where Republican Randy Weber is retiring, Fort Bend County GOP Chairman Bobby Eberle defeated former Pearland City Councilman Gary Moore in a race that pitted the incumbent of the current 22nd District, Rep. Troy Nehls (whose current district includes much of the Fort Bend County portion of the redrawn 14th and who endorsed Eberle) against Nehls' predecessor, Pete Olson (who endorsed Moore), and also benefited from winning a higher percentage in the Fort Bend County portion of the district than Moore in his Brazoria County one (also overcoming Moore's endorsement by Weber. Eberle will favored to hold the 60-40 Trump district in November.

The Houston area wasn't the only part of Texas that saw big runoff action on Tuesday night. In the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the restoration of the 32nd District into its previous configuration as a traditionally Republican, Trump-skeptical swing seat in north Dallas and immediate suburbs will set the stage for a competitive battle in November pitting conservative former Dallas County GOP Chairman Phillip Huffines, a wealthy businessman from the prominent Huffines family (Huffines' twin brother, Don, is a former State Senator who runs the Huffines Liberty Foundation), against three-term Democratic incumbent Colin Allred. Huffines won the GOP nod against moderate State Rep. Morgan Meyer with 56 percent of the vote, and is set to make the race one of the most expensive congressional races in the nation. Two other notable runoffs in the Metroplex, in contrast, are not likely to result in competitive November races. In the 5th District connecting eastern suburbs of Dallas and surrounding rural counties (vacated by Lance Gooden who lost the U.S. Senate runoff earlier tonight to Crenshaw), former U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe is all but set to return to Congress as the one-time Director of National Intelligence in Trump's final year as President won over 60 percent of the vote over State Rep. Cody Harris in tonight's GOP runoff and will be heavily favored to win in November. And in the 24th District, now a favorably Democratic, majority Hispanic district in downtown and west Dallas and immediate Dallas County suburbs, Dallas County Commissioner Elba Garcia fended off a strong challenge from former Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board trustee Candace Valenzuela (who lost this same district in 2020 to Republican Beth Van Duyne who is now seeking reelection in the newly redrawn 12th District) to win the Democratic runoff for this district.

Four other districts tied into the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin also saw runoff action Tuesday and also had their November contests set in stone. In the Laredo-based 28th District that stretches to south San Antonio, Cassy Garcia will be back for another run as the GOP nominee for what is now an open seat as incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar retired; Democrats nominated progressive Jessica Cisneros as their nominee in what is expected to be a top race to watch this year. Two other districts are all but set to send respective nominees to Congress in November from districts that heavily favor them, with former NFL long snapper and businessman Cullen Loeffler defeating conservative State Rep. Kyle Biedermann in the Republican primary to succeed former U.S. Senate candidate Chip Roy in the heavily Republican 21st District connecting north San Antonio to much of the Texas Hill Country - a district once held by Loeffler's father Tom Loeffler from 1979 to 1987, while Austin City Council member Kathie Tovo prevailed in her runoff for the heavily Democratic, Austin-based 37th District being vacated by the venerable Lloyd Doggett. And while Democrats insist they may have an outside shot in the 31st District connecting Austin's northern suburbs to the vicinity of Killeen and Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood), former State Rep. Dan Gattis is favored to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. John Carter after defeating State Rep. Brad Buckley in a close runoff.

While Texas did have the lion's share of the evening's competitive House races, it was not alone on the calendar. In Georgia, conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene narrowly avoided a runoff in the heavily Republican 14th District, based in the northwest Atlanta exurbs and northwest Georgia, against two high-profile challengers in 2020 runoff foe John Cowan and former 2012 Romney presidential campaign spokesperson Andrea Saul as Greene is flirting with a potential vice presidential bid - as the running mate to Constitution Party candidate Mike Lindell. Meanwhile, in the south suburban Atlanta-based 13th District where longtime Democrat David Scott is retiring, State Rep. and former Georgia Bulldogs football player Demetrius Douglas will go to a runoff against Clayton County Board of Commissioners Chairman Jeff Turner on June 25th, with the winner set to become the overwhelming favorite in the heavily Democratic, majority Black district. And in the Black-White coalition 2nd District in southwest Georgia, where freshman Rep. Chris West narrowly defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop in a shocking upset, Democrats will also host a runoff on June 25th between State House Minority Leader James Beverly and former Columbus Mayor and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Teresa Tomlinson, with the winner expected to run a vigorous general election campaign against West who is being targeted by the DCCC.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Based on the results of last Tuesday IRL, here is what the picture is looking like and what the TL will portend...

• In Alabama, Katie Britt easily beat Mo Brooks primarily on the backs of voters in and around Mobile and Montgomery, as well as in the heavily "redneck" north central Alabama backwoods between the Birmingham and Huntsville areas that represented Brooks's strongest areas. And while much can be said about Trump's switch from Brooks to Britt, even though most stalwart conservatives stuck with Brooks, Britt did well enough in the first round that her victory in the runoff on Tuesday was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Being the younger, "hipper" candidate - a mother who graduated from the University of Alabama with actual pre-teen children and who married a former Crimson Tide football player who had some time in the NFL with Tom Brady and the Patriots (though not winning a ring unfortunately, thanks to Eli Manning and David Tyree) - also helped Britt. She is going to defeat Will Boyd in November and will have done so in this TL, and will serve as Alabama's first female Senator.
• As I predicted, Brooks will be succeeded by Dale Strong in the Huntsville-based 5th District. And while Jerry Carl (1st/Mobile), Barry Moore (2nd/Montgomery suburbs) and Mike Rogers (3rd/eastern Alabama) are all coasting to reelection in November, in this TL I still predict that Rogers is going to retire and Carl and Moore will be drawn into a new 1st connecting the Republican and country club parts of Mobile to the Wiregrass, as the 2nd will be redrawn after the election into a Black Belt district where the Democrat is favored...see below in the newest post on this TL.
• Virginia's House races are now set in a year with no Senate or gubernatorial race on the ballot. In this TL, State Sen., nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot Jen Kiggans will have defeated Rep. Elaine Luria in the Virginia Beach-based 2nd District, Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega will have defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the exurban Northern Virginia 7th District, and Rep. Jennifer Wexton will have fended off retired naval officer and Vietnamese refugee Hung Cao in the Northern Virginia-based 10th District anchored in Loudoun County.
• Donald Trump lost big again in Georgia, this time at the congressional level as Rich McCormick trounced Trump's endorsed pick Jake Evans in the north suburban Atlanta 6th District that has been made more Republican in redistricting, which forced Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath to move east to Gwinnett County and the 7th District (where McBath as we all know defeated freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux). His higher-profile pick in the 10th District from Atlanta's eastern exurbs out to Athens and the Augusta exurbs, Vernon Jones, fared even worse as he lost 3 to 1 to Mike Collins. Trump's poor performance in the big Georgia races may pretty much portend his actual fate for 2024, since Georgians pretty much would wash his mouth out with soap and water...
• Muriel Bowser will be the Mayor of Washington, D.C. once again, after winning 50 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. Unopposed Republican primary winner Stacia Hall is the sitting Republican duck awaiting her.

Back to the TL now...

May 30, 2024
CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS SOUND ALARM OVER PROSPECT OF RARE SHUTOUT IN SENATE RACE; TRUMP ENDORSES GRENELL OVER McCARTHY
With less than a week to go in California's all-partisan Senate primary to succeed retiring Democrat Dianne Feinstein, the picture could not be any more dire for Democrats. Despite having a sizable advantage in party registration, Democrats have struggled to unite behind a clear choice to succeed Feinstein who along with Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state's other U.S. Sen., Alex Padilla (as well as the state Democratic Party itself), have chosen not to endorse a candidate. That could set up the Democrats for one of the most embarrassing outcomes of the 2024 election, if not all elections in the history of California: not having a single candidate reach the top two for November with both of the spots taken by Republicans.

In the most recent poll taken by the Los Angeles Times, where Democrats hold a 3-2 advantage in total polling not unlike their actual edge in statewide elections (Newsom having been reelected by a 56-43 margin in 2022), Speaker Kevin McCarthy has amassed 19 percent of the vote and holds a modest but clear lead for the entire field. The real battle, however, is for second place, with Donald Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell in a battle with Democratic U.S. Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff for second place; Grenell has 14 percent compared to 13 percent for Porter and 11 percent for Schiff. Four other Democrats - former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (7 percent) and U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell (also 7 percent), Raul Ruiz (5 percent) and Jared Huffman (4 percent) trail even further with other Democrats getting 6 percent, other Republicans getting 2 percent, and 10 percent of voters undecided.

While McCarthy started out with a commanding lead among Republicans, Grenell has closed the gap by appealing to conservatives and Trump supporters, while Porter (who initially started out as the runaway leader among Democrats) has seen her numbers slip in the face of competition from fellow progressives Swalwell and Huffman (whose combined support in the San Francisco Bay Area has made it difficult for Porter to make inroads beyond Southern California, where Schiff leads among Democrats). Bustamante has mostly fared well in the Central Valley region, while Ruiz has a niche among Hispanic voters in the Los Angeles area as well as in his Inland Empire base. Overall, 15 Democrats and six Republicans, as well as 3 independents and five third-party candidates, have filed to run in the open primary.

This has prompted Porter to call on her rivals Swalwell and Huffman to drop out of the race and endorse her, in hopes of uniting a clear Democratic choice to secure a top two place and avoid an embarrassing shutout. However, Swalwell has rebuffed Porter's offer, "California Democrats deserve a bold champion for progressive causes, and Porter's acquiescence to corporate interests is proof that she is the wrong choice to succeed Dianne Feinstein", and also pointed to his own polling showing him in contention for second place. Meanwhile, Schiff has pointed to his own internal polling showing a second place finish on Tuesday: "As the only Democrat endorsed by every major California newspaper, I am confident that we will prevail as the only Democrat standing after Tuesday, and the only one who will stop Kevin McCarthy from getting an undeserved job promotion to the Senate". McCarthy, meanwhile, pointed to his lead as "proof that voters in California have had enough of liberals like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris destroying their state and leaving its residents poorer and more destitute than ever before" and argued that "Tuesday will mark the beginning of the end of the Democrats' fading blue utopia that has been anything but paradise".

Nonetheless, Grenell gained even further momentum on Thursday when he received the endorsement of former President Trump who called Grenell "a strong and powerful America First warrior who stood up to China and the European elitists destroying Europe's culture and values" and "TOUGH on borders, crime and reckless spending!", while also calling McCarthy "a huge disappointment who has done more for the same America Last Republicans who accomplished nothing for the American people", and even referred to McCarthy as "a poor man's Paul Ryan". Grenell touted the endorsement, "As the only candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, I am confident that we will put California first again, not last, with a proven conservative who worked with Donald Trump and will never disappoint you!", while stopping sort of directly attacking McCarthy as Grenell hopes to build on recent momentum that surged his campaign from fifth to second in two months' time, and potentially deal a fatal blow to Democrats on Tuesday in their quest to maintain the seat - and any chance of winning back the majority in the Senate. California voters will also decide on congressional nominees in the state's 52 congressional seats, with multiple open seats and other battleground districts on the line, along with the conclusion of a special election to fill the San Francisco-based 11th District of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi who resigned at the end of 2023; controversial former District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was recalled in 2022 in the wake of a national crime wave that negatively affected San Francisco, will face off against San Francisco Supervisor Catherine Stefani (whose constituents include Pelosi) for the unexpired term, both having respectively placed first and second in a special nonpartisan primary held last April.

May 31, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES CAWTHORN AS DEM PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR BECOMES PROXY WAR
Former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn earned the endorsement of former President Donald Trump on Friday, as he seeks to reclaim his old congressional seat in western North Carolina's 11th District, two years after losing it to then-State Senator Chuck Edwards in the Republican primary. After receiving Trump's endorsement, Cawthorn touted the endorsement as "proof that voters in western North Carolina have had enough of the uber-woke, America Last leadership of Chuck Edwards and his establishment cronies who have done nothing to help working families and patriots here". Edwards, however, fired back at Cawthorn's endorsement: "Donald Trump is no longer running for President and his endorsement power isn't as strong as it used to be, and his decision to endorse the same failed Congressman who failed to deliver for his constituents shows why". Edwards also pointed to numerous endorsements from other Republicans throughout the Asheville-based district, as well as recent endorsements from local police and firefighters and internal polling showing him with enough polling to avoid a runoff.

The 11th District race is far from the only race of note on Tuesday in the Tar Heel State, as voters will also decide nominees in the 5th District where longtime Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx is retiring, along with a few other notable congressional primaries and a crucial gubernatorial race to succeed term-limited Democrat and former presidential hopeful Roy Cooper. While Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is a shoo-in for the GOP nomination, the Democratic primary has evolved into a battle between state Attorney General Josh Stein and former U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler. Stein has touted endorsements from more liberal Democrats such as U.S. Reps. Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning, while Shuler has been backed by more moderate Democrats such as U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson. Despite Shuler's appearance at the launch of Gov. Cooper's presidential campaign last year, Cooper has not endorsed a candidate in the race, but reiterated that "when the dust settles, the winner of the Democratic primary will get my total endorsement for November". However, Cooper's indecision has triggered a war between activist liberals more intent on nominating Stein as the Democratic nominee and more moderate Democrats who favor Shuler as "the only candidate who can win North Carolina in November"; "If Democrats are to hold on to the Governor's Mansion in November and not lose it to a Donald Trump clone, the last thing we need is a candidate who has more trust from radical leftists in New York City than the hard working men and women of North Carolina", said Shuler during a rally in High Point on Friday.

Robinson, who hopes to become North Carolina's first African-American Governor, has more or less consolidated the Republican vote behind him, after former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker (who at one point considered running for Governor) was instead steered to the 8th District by several top advisers as well as Trump; the new 8th covers some parts of the Piedmont Triad region that were previously represented by Walker, in addition to Rockingham and parts of Fayetteville including Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg). The 8th became open after its Republican incumbent, Rep. Richard Hudson, decided to seek reelection in the 9th District in Charlotte's eastern suburbs (an area he previously represented for his first five terms in Congress) after redistricting made the previously Democratic-leaning 14th District (now anchored in Charlotte's western suburbs as well as a southern sliver of the city itself and the western corner of neighboring Union County) more palatable to Republicans, prompting the 9th's incumbent Congressman, Rep. Dan Bishop, to run for reelection there; Walker also faces State Sen. Dave Craven and several other candidates in Tuesday's Republican primary for the 8th. Republicans will also be challenging Democratic incumbents Don Davis in the Rocky Mount-based 1st District and Kathy Manning in the Greensboro-based 6th District, while Democrats will be targeting the 8th as well as the south suburban Raleigh-based 13th District of conservative GOP freshman Bo Hines. The 14th's incumbent Democratic Congressman, freshman Rep. Jeff Jackson, is now running in the Black-White coalition 12th District that contains almost all of Charlotte (and where its incumbent Democrat, Rep. Alma Adams, is retiring).

June 2, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES IN NEW JERSEY GOP SHOWDOWN; AL SHARPTON, CHARLES BARKLEY FEUD OVER DUELING ALABAMA CANDIDATES
On Sunday, former President Donald Trump continued his swing of endorsements across the country in the run up to Tuesday's large slate of congressional primaries with 99 districts, including 52 in California, on the line along with multiple Senate races and two gubernatorial races - one far more important than the other. In New Jersey's heavily Republican 4th District where 22-term incumbent Chris Smith is retiring, Trump endorsed conservative TV commentator Mike Crispi, whose primary employer, Right Side Broadcasting Network, is known for its wall-to-wall coverage of Trump rallies and steadfast editorial defense of the former President. "Mike Crispi is a strong and relentless America First Warrior who will never let down the people of the Jersey Shore - the real one, NOT the TV show!", Trump proclaimed in his endorsement through his Save America PAC. Crispi, who unsuccessfully challenged Smith from the right in 2022 with TV appearances on Fox News and other networks, is far from the only candidate in a race that also includes evangelist and consultant Shawn Hyland, Toms River Mayor Mo Hill, and State Assemblywoman Vicky Flynn, who has been endorsed by Smith. Crispi has stressed the importance of "electing a strong conservative to the most Republican district in all of New Jersey", and has called out Flynn as being "part of the Trenton swamp".

Republicans are also looking to hold onto the 7th District stretching from Union County to the Skylands west of New York City, held by freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., in Tuesday's election, while also targeting vulnerable Democrats Andy Kim in the Burlington County-anchored 3rd District and Josh Gottheimer in the 5th District stretching across most of Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties, as well as the open, Morris and west Essex County-based 11th District of Mikie Sherrill (who is running a competitive primary challenge against embattled Sen. Bob Menendez). With Donald Trump no longer on the ballot and the tax deduction shock that spooked New Jersey Republicans following the former President's tax cut package in 2017 now in the rearview mirror, Democrats face the prospect of seriously losing as many as three members of Congress in addition to failing to gain back the two seats it lost since 2018 (including the Atlantic City-based 2nd District where its own Rep. Jeff Van Drew switched to the GOP after voting against impeaching Trump in his first impeachment trial).

Alabama is another source of contention with days to go before their congressional primaries, but in this case affecting the Democrats who are favored (though not overwhelmingly) to win the newly redrawn 2nd District, now stretching from the state capital of Montgomery to Mobile following a court-ordered redistricting ordered after the 2022 elections. On Friday, Rev. Al Sharpton, speaking on behalf of the National Action Network, appeared in Montgomery with University of Alabama constitutional law professor Bryan Fair, who chairs the Board of Directors for the Southern Poverty Law Center and is among the leading Democrats running for the newly drawn district. "In this new district centered in the heart of the Black Belt of Dixie, it is important that we send a true advocate for justice to Congress". However, Fair's overall liberal agenda and the fact that he moved from Tuscaloosa (where he is a visiting professor at the University of Alabama) has become cannon fodder for another leading Democrat, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher, who is endorsed by much of the Alabama Democratic establishment as well as one particular celebrity of note to Alabamians with an outsized reputation for being outspoken.

Following last Sunday's broadcast of Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals on TNT, NBA on TNT analyst and Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley threw his support behind Hatcher during a discussion about "how he spent Memorial Day weekend", in which Barkley reportedly telephoned Hatcher to express his support. "I think he has a great background, taught English, has a divinity degree, seems like the total package, like picking the No. 1 pick in the (NBA) Draft", Barkley opined. The former Auburn standout also apparently took a jab at Fair's ties to his alma mater's most hated rival, "No offense to his opponent, but this part of Alabama screams 'War Eagle'...You can't really represent if your resume screams 'Roll Tide'". Not surprisingly, the social media reaction wasn't exactly charitable not only from Fair supporters ("Uncle Charles strikes again for the token corporate king!", in an apparent dig at Hatcher's support from business-oriented groups during his time in the Legislature) but also from fans of the Crimson Tide ("More choice words from someone who will NEVER win a ring anywhere in anything!").

That prompted Sharpton to respond on his MSNBC show PoliticsNation on Monday: "If Charles Barkley thinks he can speak for Black America, he is wrong since almost every time he speaks out politically, it's for the candidate that's the least focused on justice, on helping his fellow man. If he was willing to go to bat for a token White Democrat like Doug Jones but not for someone who can really fight for all Alabamians, then he's just another washed up ball boy who sold himself to the highest bidder". Barkley responded on Twitter through Hatcher's campaign to Sharpton: "I'm from Alabama, @TheRevAl. You never had to live through Jim Crow, but my family did. This is a different world from your Brooklyn bubble and always was.", in an apparent dig at Sharpton's New York City roots and surroundings. Sharpton then responded the following Wednesday by blasting CNN (whose parent company Warner Bros. Discovery also owns TNT) as "having sold out to faceless corporate cowards who give Charles Barkley a platform to divide brothers", which in part triggered Sharpton's aforementioned trip on Friday to support Fair. While Republicans are targeting the district, which Trump lost by only single digits in both 2016 and 2020, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win the newly redrawn 2nd in November.

[SaintStan86]

It's a mild Sunday evening - June 2nd - in the Caribbean, and the last territory outstanding is making their caucus calls...

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Democrats in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be pledged to candidates based on tonight's results, with six pledged delegates to be doled out.

Territorywide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 81.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 18.51 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2082 delegates +6 from the U.S. Virgin Islands
Elizabeth Warren - 804 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

The U.S. Virgin Islands may as well be Harris's strongest turf in the primary thus far, if only because she is not only the presumptive Democratic nominee, but also the only one who can qualify for delegates remaining. There are two Democrats who for some reason remain "active", except their support is absolutely minimal (as in 0.001 percent nationwide).

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Nine delegates will be awarded to qualifying candidates in tonight's closed caucuses in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Only registered Republicans can participate, and individual delegates are elected with their presidential preference indicated or uncommitted. The three party leaders will attend the Republican National Convention as unbound delegates.

Territorywide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 74.52 percent (6 delegates)
Candace Owens - 5.51 percent
(Remaining 19.97 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1399 delegates +6 from the U.S. Virgin Islands
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates +3 from Oregon
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Not surprisingly, DeSantis wins all six delegates as virtually all of the delegates running indicated their support for the Florida Governor.

Fast forward to Tuesday night. California has a crucial Senate race where the prospects for one candidate are certain and those of one particular party are uncertain, but critical Senate battles also persist in New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico and Mississippi. All of these states, along with North Carolina, Alabama, Iowa and South Dakota, are holding congressional primaries, and North Carolina and Montana also have gubernatorial contests to watch as well. It is now 8 p.m. in New Jersey...

NEW JERSEY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

107 pledged delegates will be awarded tonight across the Garden State. In an unusual move, 70 of these delegates will be awarded by "delegate districts" consisting of two of the state's 40 legislative districts paired together; these LDs each elect two members of the state General Assembly and one member of the state Senate. The Democratic delegate formula (e.g. 15 percent threshold, etc.) remains the same. (Editor's note: These delegate districts are speculative, and based on my projected pairings for 2024 given the changed geographic nature - and in one case, an old delegate district split in two - of the new map.)

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 80.02 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 19.98 percent went to other candidates, including 13.01 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
Delegate District 1 (3 delegates)
LD01/Cape May, Estell Manor & Vineland
LD03/Salem, West Deptford & Shiloh:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 2 (3 delegates)
LD02/Atlantic City, Port Republic & Weymouth
LD09/Barnegat, Berkeley & Lakehurst:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 3 (4 delegates)
LD04/Washington Township, Gloucester & Buena
LD05/Camden, Deptford & Pennsauken:
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 4 (5 delegates)
LD06/Cherry Hill, Voorhees & Maple Shade
LD07/Burlington, Mount Laurel & Bordentown:
Kamala Harris 5
Delegate District 5 (3 delegates)
LD08/Mount Holly, Hammonton & Medford
LD12/Old Bridge, Jackson Township & Manalapan:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 6 (2 delegates)
LD10/Toms River, Point Pleasant & Spring Lake
LD30/Lakewood, Wall & Howell:
Kamala Harris 2
Delegate District 7 (4 delegates)
LD11/Long Branch, Freehold & Eatontown
LD13/Middletown, West Long Branch & Marlboro:
Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 8 (4 delegates)
LD14/Hamilton, Monroe & Plainsboro
LD15/Trenton, West Windsor & Frenchtown:
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 9 (4 delegates)
LD16/Princeton, Hillsborough & Flemington
LD17/New Brunswick, Franklin Township & Piscataway:
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 10 (3 delegates)
LD18/Metuchen, East Brunswick & South Plainfield
LD19/Perth Amboy, Sayreville & Carteret:
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 11 (3 delegates)
LD20/Elizabeth & Union
LD22/Plainfield, Linden & Cranford:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 12 (4 delegates)
LD21/Westfield, Bernardsville & Chatham
LD23/Hackettstown, Somerville & Phillipsburg:
Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 13 (4 delegates)
LD24/Vernon, Mount Olive & Newton
LD25/Morristown, West Milford & Rockaway Township:
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 14 (4 delegates)
LD26/Parsippany, Ringwood & Florham Park
LD40/Wayne, West Caldwell & Wyckoff:
Kamala Harris 4
Delegate District 15 (3 delegates)
LD28/Newark (SW), South Orange & Hillside
LD29/Newark (majority) & Harrison:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 16 (3 delegates)
LD31/Jersey City (south half), Bayonne & Kearny
LD32/Jersey City (north half) & Hoboken:
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 17 (3 delegates)
LD33/North Bergen, Weehawken & Secaucus
LD36/East Rutherford, Edgewater & Passaic:
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 18 (4 delegates)
LD27/West Orange, Clifton & Short Hills
LD34/Bloomfield, Orange & Nutley:
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
Delegate District 19 (3 delegates)
LD35/Paterson, Garfield & North Haledon
LD38/Paramus, Teterboro & Bergenfield:
Kamala Harris 3
Delegate District 20 (4 delegates)
LD37/Hackensack, Fort Lee & Tenafly
LD39/Mahwah, Demarest & Saddle River:
Kamala Harris 4
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (14 delegates):
Kamala Harris 14
At-Large Delegates (23 delegates):
Kamala Harris 23

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2181 delegates +99 from New Jersey
Elizabeth Warren - 812 delegates +8 from New Jersey
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris continued to rack up delegates as expected in the last remaining big prize amongst states, but once again Warren's played spoiler winning one delegate each in eight of New Jersey's 20 "delegate districts", mostly concentrated in Trenton as well as in White working-class and deeply progressive areas of the state. In the other 12 "delegate districts", mostly in more affluent suburban areas, Harris swept the night.

NEW JERSEY
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

50 delegates, including 36 at the congressional level, will be awarded to the highest vote-getter in tonight's winner-take-all primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 85.52 percent (50 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.94 percent
(Remaining 10.54 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1449 delegates +50 from New Jersey
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis wins New Jersey's winner-take-all primary without much fanfare. Big whoop.

NEW MEXICO
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Only registered Democrats can participate in tonight's closed primary where 29 pledged delegates, including 19 at the congressional level, will be delegated.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 68.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 31.51 percent went to other candidates, including 16.10 for Elizabeth Warren and 10.09 who voted Uncommitted)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD01/Albuquerque (east), Rio Rancho & Ruidoso (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 7
CD02/Albuquerque (west), Carlsbad & Las Cruces (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD03/Santa Fe, Roswell & Farmington (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4
At-Large Delegates (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2207 delegates +26 from New Mexico
Elizabeth Warren - 815 delegates +8 from New Mexico
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris dominated yet again, but once again sees drop-off in more progressive and working-class areas, only being able to sweep the least Hispanic district in the state (the 1st anchored in the more prosperous and White east side of Albuquerque). In fact, at least 15 percent of voters in more rural counties outside of the immediate Albuquerque metro area voted Uncommitted, casting further doubt as to whether or not Harris can win over constituencies other than cosmopolitan metro areas and African and Asian Americans.

NEW MEXICO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

22 delegates will be allocated to candidates based on results in tonight's proportional primary; candidates must reach at least 15 percent of the vote statewide to qualify.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 74.50 percent (22 delegates)
Candace Owens - 2.50 percent
(Remaining 23 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1471 delegates +22 from New Mexico
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis sweeps yet another state as none of the other (mostly dormant) candidates on the ballot even crossed 10 percent.

SOUTH DAKOTA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

14 pledged delegates will be awarded to candidates in tonight's Democratic primary.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 70.98 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 29.02 percent went to Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
At-Large CD/Sioux Falls, Rapid City & Pierre (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 3
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2218 delegates +11 from South Dakota
Elizabeth Warren - 818 delegates +3 from South Dakota
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

Harris dominates another state as the presumptive nominee, but once again it's not unanimous as Warren won enough votes to win three delegates at the congressional level and crossed 35 percent in several counties.

SOUTH DAKOTA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

29 delegates will be awarded to the winner of tonight's winner-take-all presidential primary in South Dakota.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 81.44 percent (29 delegates)
Candace Owens - 4.03 percent
(Remaining 14.53 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1500 delegates +29 from South Dakota
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

Not surprisingly for a state whose own Governor (Kristi Noem) drew numerous comparisons to him (and even outclassed him by not even issuing a single COVID-19 lockdown, versus the one he did acquiesce to in April of 2020), DeSantis dominated South Dakota.

MONTANA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Tonight's open primary in Montana will award 20 pledged delegates, including 13 from its congressional delegation - the first with more than one district since 1988.

Statewide Results of Primary
Kamala Harris - 72.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
(Remaining 27.51 percent went to other candidates, including 16.20 for Elizabeth Warren)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Missoula, Bozeman & Kalispell (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Billings, Helena & Glendive (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES (FINAL COUNT)
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 2237 delegates +19 from Montana
Elizabeth Warren - 819 delegates +1 from Montana
Pete Buttigieg - 495 delegates
Roy Cooper - 132 delegates
Jared Polis - 47 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 33 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates
(NOTE: Seven delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention uncommitted.)

In a result similar to South Dakota, Harris won all but one of Montana's pledged delegates, with Warren winning one delegate out of the western-based 1st District, home to the liberal-leaning college towns as Missoula and Bozeman.

MONTANA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Tonight's winner-take-all presidential primary will award 31 delegates to the winner of Montana's presidential primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 79.79 percent (29 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.30 percent
(Remaining 16.91 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (FINAL COUNT, 1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 1531 delegates +31 from Montana
Nikki Haley - 389 delegates
Mike Pence - 318 delegates
Ted Cruz - 72 delegates
Ben Sasse - 60 delegates
Larry Hogan - 58 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 20 delegates
Chris Christie - 19 delegates
Candace Owens - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
(NOTE: 23 delegates, including three from the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be attending the Republican National Convention unbound.)

DeSantis won one final sweep in Montana, and while the result did have its expected single-digit numbers from "hardened voters of conscience", Montana proved to be the proverbial cherry on top.

And this, my friends, concludes the presidential primaries. (YAY!)

[SaintStan86]

LATEST REAL-LIFE UPDATES:
Before I continue with updates from Tuesday's batch of important races across eight states, I would like to comment on the obvious water cooler topic that has dominated political conversation since this past weekend.

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling was pretty much expected to go the way it did, with the 5 conservative associate justices voting to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey rulings, the three liberal associate justices dissenting, and Chief Justice John Roberts - long the proverbial "swing vote" - concurring in the decision without necessarily agreeing with overturning Roe and Casey, adding that such restrictions on abortion should "extend far enough to ensure a reasonable opportunity to choose, but need not extend any further."

From a personal standpoint, abortion should essentially be "safe, legal and rare" in the sense that once a heartbeat is detected, abortion should not even be considered as an option; this is made possible because of advancements in medical technology since Roe that have made it easier for doctors to detect a heartbeat in a fetus. It is also fair to say that the Democratic platform has effectively shifted from "safe, legal and rare" to "abortion is healthcare", whereas the Republican consensus vacillates between "safe, legal and rare" and completely abolishing the practice - the latter of which is untenable given the equally divisive moral challenge of compelling mothers to keep babies to term that were conceived out of rape and incest, as well as to save the mother's life. Not to mention those conceived in human trafficking and smuggling cases, which is also noteworthy given the issue is rather significant where I am in Texas (specifically in Fort Bend County outside Houston) and especially given Monday's tragedy in San Antonio where dozens of smuggled migrants were found dead in the sweltering trailer of an 18-wheeler (even though this is not technically a sex trafficking case at all, but rather another casualty of the crisis at the border that is all but certain to sink Democrats in 2022 and perhaps President Biden as well in 2024).

Further, it will also put the onus on states to emphasize sex education that is medically accurate and emphasizes the biological nature of intercourse (because as the old saying goes, teenagers do stupid things), as opposed to the ping-pong battle between liberal states that emphasize a politically incorrect sort of sex ed (some directed at ages below the high school level) that is fair game in the current culture wars conservatives are waging at schools across America and conservative ones that favor an abstinence-only sex ed that has not necessarily been effective at curbing teenage pregnancy. Going back to the old adage that teenagers do stupid things, not knowing how to use a condom, falsely believing that wearing one "violates" one's tenets of faith, being inebriated to the point where one cannot recognize the consequences of unprotected sex (which also applies to the conversation surrounding STDs including AIDS), or not being knowledgeable in how human sexual intercourse involves the procreation of children for which unprotected sex may warrant an unwanted pregnancy can be consequential to those who did not expect to have children. The moral of the story is that if two consenting adults love each other and agree to sexual intercourse, there shouldn't be any issues as long as they know how to properly raise that child into a productive member of society.

That also leads to the last thing I will say on this matter. With Roe and Casey now overturned, this is also going to put pressure on Republicans who have long advocated for the decision to overturn Roe (which I definitely agree with) and Casey (which I mostly agree with caution) to emphasize charitable efforts to take care of these babies once they are born, including various pregnancy centers, diaper banks, charitable groups including long-existing Catholic organizations that assist families in need, tax incentives for those who choose to give an unwanted pregnancy via adoption or surrogacy (which will help millions of women who want to start a family but are unable to for various reasons) and other "points of light" that Republicans will have to promote aggressvely to counter the prevailing narrative on the left that "Republicans only care about you when you're in the womb, but once you're out of it you're on your own". After all, it was a Republican President who emphasized a "thousand points of light", and it is those points of light that Republicans must now emphasize to put their pro-life advocacy and the care that will be needed once these babies are born into action. There is ZERO excuse for Republicans to advocate for the unborn and then do nothing for these little miracles once they are born.

Now, here are the campaign updates from last night:

• Unsurprising, State Sen. Darren Bailey dominated the Republican primary for Governor of Illinois, but the dynamics of how to achieve the nomination were noteworthy not only due to the endorsement by Donald Trump, but also the influence of Democrats who sought to steer the race towards Bailey as he was perceived as the "least electable" Republican in November. Whether or not that is true is merely heresay, though the practice somewhat worked in 2012 when Missouri Democrats successfully influenced the Republican primary against Sen. Claire McCaskill when it highlighted then-U.S. Rep. Todd Akin as "too conservative" (never mind that Akin was actually the establishmentarian candidate in the race versus two other outsider candidates whose conservative appeals were more genuine). Akin won that primary, but as we all know imploded after his "legitimate rape" comment on a St. Louis Sunday morning talk show stirred controversy. Regardless of the results last night, I still predict in this TL that Gov. J.B. Pritzker will be reelected and this also will not affect the future prospects of State Rep. Avery Bourne, who was on the losing ticket of gubernatorial candidate and Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin. However, Irvin flopped so badly he even finished slightly behind venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan (whose home base in Menard County is in the redrawn 13th District already mentioned in this TL). To that extent, Bourne (who already defeated Rodney Davis in this TL) will now have defeated Davis in addition to Sullivan (who will attempt to run for Congress here as well in this TL but ultimately fail).
• Speaking of Rodney Davis, he will now be a former Congressman after all following his loss to fellow Rep. Mary Miller, who benefited from an endorsement in the new 15th District by Trump despite a series of misspoken statements that got her in hot water (even though whatever vocal accent she has certainly played a hand in her "right to life" comment being misconstrued as the obviously racist "white life"). Also not coming back is Rep. Marie Newman, who got blown out in the west suburban Chicago-based 6th District against fellow incumbent Rep. Sean Casten. While I did predict Newman over Casten at the beginning of this TL, Democratic voters in suburban Chicago apparently do care about not wanting a radical progressive like Newman hijack their chances this year, but Casten obviously benefited from more favorable geographics and especially a large sympathy vote after his older daughter, 17 years young, died unexpectedly earlier this month. Regardless, I still think Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau will defeat Casten (albeit narrowly), even with the poor GOP prospects statewide, since it is expected that Republicans in suburban Chicago and elsewhere across Illinois will look to focus on local, legislative and congressional races to keep them busy and give "a big middle finger" to the state's Democratic machine. Casten, though will make a comeback bid and in this TL will be the Dem nominee once again for a court-ordered 6th now exclusively within DuPage County.
• That same "I don't want a fringe progressive" mentality also prevailed in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, where Raja Krishnamoorthi fended off a more progressive challenger who blasted the incumbent Rep. as beholden to corporate donors (specifically pharmaceuticals), but Krishnamoorthi ultimately prevailed in the new, real-life 8th District and not only will have been elected at the beginning of this TL, but (as posted earlier) will have defeated Rep. Mike Quigley in the redrawn 5th District. Don't get me wrong, Chris Dargis appears to be a very credible candidate and will put up a fight, but Biden did well enough in the new district where the 2022 incarnation of the 8th is just out of reach for the GOP, and whatever problems Biden may have in Chicagoland are nothing compared to his atrocious numbers in the rest of Illinois. My predictions in the two Black Chicago districts of significant interest in this cycle also went 50-50: while Jonathan Jackson obviously benefited from his father being the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the South Side-anchored 1st District, Danny K. Davis still prevailed narrowly over the progressive Kina Collins (with a little help from Joe Biden) in the West Side-based 7th. The trajectory of this TL on these two races will now slightly change, with the elderly Davis finally retiring, Jackson now the incumbent in the 1st, and Collins making a third primary run on the basis of Collins being more familiar with the West Side than Jackson but ultimately losing narrowly in a primary marred by the aforementioned campaign murder mystery. And I nailed it on Delia Ramirez, who destroyed her competition in the newly-drawn 3rd District which will be modified in this TL to contain actual Hispanic suburban population centers in places like Elgin that were actually left out of a district Democrats purportedly drew as "a second Latino district" IRL.
• Wrapping up the Land of Lincoln, starting with the Chicago exurbs, while I had switched from Jack Lombardi to Mike Koolidge who in this TL had become the "incumbent" after defeating Rep. Lauren Underwood in the 14th District, I badly miscalculated there as exurban Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder appears to have won that district's GOP nod. I am correct though in predicting that Catalina Lauf will be the GOP nominee against Rep. Bill Foster in the 11th. In this TL, I still predict that Lauf will defeat Foster and Gryder will defeat Underwood; both Democrats have vastly larger war chests, but the districts are vulnerable enough to go Republican in an expected "red wave" election, once the hoopla surrounding the Dobbs decision dies down. Foster will call it a career ultimately, but Underwood will be back in this TL as the nominee for the Will County-anchored 11th District while Gryder will now be the incumbent in the 14th. Downstate, I predict that Nikki Budzinski will narrowly defeat whichever Republican between Regan Deering and Jesse Reising emerges out of the photo finish for the GOP nod in the 13th District, though in this TL Budzinski will have been drawn into a more congruent 13th that will make her a top NRCC target. However, not only will I predict that Esther Joy King is going to Congress from the 17th IRL, but she will be in good shape to win a second term as her historically Democratic district gets redrawn to be more compact - and more favorable for the GOP. And while Sen. Tammy Duckworth is heavily favored to defeat attorney Kathy Salvi (whose husband Al ran against then U.S. Rep. Dick Durbin in 1996 for the other Senate seat in Illinois), I'm going to say it's a shame it won't be as competitive as the one her husband ran against Durbin back in the day, but I may be wrong in the weirdest sense.
• Colorado was the other big state to watch for the GOP on Tuesday, as Republicans fretted about Democrats and the most brazen of "election truthers" upending their destiny for November had Parker Mayor Greg Lopez won the gubernatorial nomination and State Rep. Ron Hanks the bid for Senate against incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet, as Democrats ran the same sort of "too conservative" ads they ran in Illinois, except in this case there was only one primary opponent in either race and "dark money" concerns surrounding Lopez and Hanks became campaign fodder. Ultimately, in a battle between the ostensibly cosmopolitan Front Range around Denver and Colorado Springs and the allegedly "ultra MAGA" remainder of the state, the I-25 corridor won the war as construction company owner Joe O'Dea defeated Hanks and University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl (herself also a successful entrepreneur who founded the Camp Bow Wow pet care franchise) edged past Lopez. While Ganahl is the underdog against Gov. Jared Polis (who more or less has filled predecessor and now-U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper's shoes quite nicely) and O'Dea is also an underdog against Bennet, it's fair to say the Colorado GOP may have dodged a bullet. That, and also defeating a favored but flawed candidate of the "election truthers" for Secretary of State in favor of Pam Anderson (the former County Clerk and Recorder of suburban Denver's Jefferson County, NOT the former Playboy Playmate and Baywatch actress).
• We also now know who the players are in two Colorado congressional races. In the west suburban Denver-based 7th where Rep. Ed Perlmutter is retiring, Democratic State Sen. Brittany Pettersen will face Iraq/Afghan War vet and project manager Erik Aadland, while in the new 8th District anchored in the northern Denver suburbs the contest will pit State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer against State. Rep. Yadira Caraveo. And I still predict that Kirkmeyer will win and that Aadland (in this environment, and especially with the luck the statewide GOP drew last night) will still pull off an upset over Pettersen who may or may not seek a rematch in this TL. And while Reps. Lauren Boebert (3rd, Grand Junction to Pueblo) and Doug Lamborn (5th, Colorado Springs) survived well-documented primary challenges last night, I still predict in this TL that Boebert will (then as now) draw heavily funded primary and Democratic challenges and that Lamborn will finally call it a career in 2024.
• New York's high-profile congressional races aren't until later this August, but they did hold their statewide elections last night as U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin will be the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. While Hochul is favored both in real life and in this TL, Zeldin has the benefit of endorsements from both the Independence and Conservative parties in New York - which usually is a plus for Republican candidates in New York's famous fusion election system where candidates run on multiple tickets; his running mate for Lt. Gov., NYPD veteran Alison Esposito, has also drawn intrigue as she not only has the same slate of endorsements as Zeldin, but is also an out lesbian (not a big deal, for love is certainly LOVE and the news has actually been very positive!). Zeldin's 44 percent and dominance both on Long Island and in the Upstate more than made up for his losing New York City to Andrew Giuliani (23 percent), the Hudson Valley suburbs and exurbs of New York City to Rob Astorino (18 percent), and the Watertown side of the North Country to self-funding Harry Wilson (15 percent). As for Hochul's running mate, Lt. Gov. (and ex-U.S. Rep.) Antonio Delgado easily won his Democratic primary and is favored to win (for now) on Hochul's ticket, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is still widely favored to defeat Republican challenger Joe Pinion in November, but in this TL will have been relegated to the purgatory of Senate Minority Leader.
• The big surprise of the night for me was Nebraska, where a special election was held in the 1st District following the resignation of convicted Rep. Jeff Fortenberry who yesterday has been sentenced to two years' probation instead of prison. State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks ran perhaps the strongest campaign of any Democrat in the Lincoln-based 1st in decades, but Republican and fellow State Sen. Mike Flood rued the day in a close 53-46 margin. Meanwhile in Mississippi, ethically challenged Rep. Steven Palazzo wasn't as lucky, as he lost to Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell in the GOP primary for the Biloxi-based 4th District, though his in-state neighbor, GOP Rep. Michael Guest, managed to trounce challenger Michael Cassidy in his own close race in the nearby 3rd District connecting the Jackson suburbs to Meridian and Starkville. And while a lot of Utah Republicans dissented against their incumbent Reps. in all four of the state's congressional districts, the incumbents still prevailed with no less than 58 percent of the vote, as did Sen. Mike Lee who crossed 60 percent in his primary renomination bid; while all of the Reps. are strongly favored to win reelection, Lee is facing an aggressive challenge from 2016 independent presidential candidate and rabid OG Never Trumper Evan McMullin, who is running with support from the Democratic Party.
• Oklahoma's two Senate races are set, with incumbent Sen. James Lankford easily trouncing a far-right challenger and now set to win in November against the winner of a Democratic runoff next August for the regular Senate election, while the special election to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe (who is resigning and retiring at the end of the year) will go to a runoff between Rep. Markwayne Mullin from the eastern-based 2nd District and former State House Speaker T.W. Shannon; the winner will face one-term former U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn for the right to hold on to this seat until the next regular election in 2026. Mullin's seat, meanwhile, is all but set to be held by the winner of August's runoff between one of three candidates between State Rep. Avery Frix, former State Sen. Josh Brecheen, and Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee; the shameful part about the latter is that Teehee has the most iconic and marketable name, but is the third man in a race where only two advance to the runoff.
• Last but not least, South Carolina had a runoff for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Sen. Tim Scott. The victor of this runoff, State Rep. Krystle Matthews, will be a huge underdog in November against potential 2024 presidential candidate Scott (in this TL, Scott will have easily won, but as we all know by now he will NOT be running for President and will have instead endorsed a fellow South Carolinian named Nimrata Randhawa (aka Nikki Haley).

That's it for now. The congressional part of the June 4th elections in this TL are coming up on the next post...

[SaintStan86]

I thought races for Governor of Illinois occur in non presidential election year's? So how come Governor's race in Illinois is occurring in 2024?

By referring to "real-life updates", I'm referring to last night's results in several states as opposed to 2024. In 2024 in this TL, Pritzker is already the Democratic nominee and can run for another term in 2026. I have highlighted what has happened in real life and so far in this TL to update what happens from here on out.

In this TL, Illinois is going to be a congressional battleground as the state's egregious Dem gerrymander is broken apart and returned to a more normal map. While there are Democrats who will crow about one of Chicago's three historically Black districts being broken apart, the real-life situation of Chicago's South Side migrating out to the suburbs and not necessarily being replenished - a factor that along with decimated growth south of Springfield resulted in Illinois losing a congressional seat last year - is something that cannot be ignored without disenfranchising millions of suburban and rural constituencies south and southwest of Chicago.

To this extent, preserving IL-01's historic significance as a pioneering Black district in Chicago is the necessary evil that is taken to guarantee future Black representation out of the state, and by connecting it to the West Side as well as the mostly Black neighborhood of Austin and other West Side suburbs with sizable Black populations such as Maywood and Broadview, as well as White liberal bastions like Oak Park - all while maintaining its presence from the Loop to Hyde Park (which in turn also incorporates Barack Obama's presidential center). Of the course, the new IL-02 (as seen in this map I drew, which has a DRA proportionality ratio of 100) is about 70 percent Black, except south Cook County has become majority Black and there would be no sense in maintaining three Black majority districts without either continuing to break up (and disenfranchise) Will County voters or affecting the majority Hispanic status of the 4th District that must now rely on Chicago's mostly Mexican-American southwest side as the northwest side (traditionally Puerto Rican) now has its own district in this TL.

Lastly, the new map in this TL also gives Keith Pekau an opportunity to explicitly represent his southwest suburban constituents while also recasting the 6th as a DuPage district, one where Casten could run again where it could be his race to lose. And unlike the 5th (which did not move dramatically from the GOP compared to the 6th between 2016 and 2020), the 6th would also be viable for a GOP pickup given that areas like Wheaton, Lombard, Naperville and Carol Stream not too long ago were held by Republicans at the state level in addition to federal as well.

[SaintStan86]

Meanwhile, on the congressional ledger...

June 4, 2024
WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN TONIGHT'S CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES
In addition to the final curtain call on the 2024 presidential primaries, with Vice President Kamala Harris looking to hold the White House for the Democrats & President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looking to take it back with the "revenge backing" of former President Donald Trump, there are also a number of high-profile congressional races across the country that will determine whether or not Republicans are in command of their destiny to hold on to Capitol Hill or if Democrats are poised to gain back Congress after a disastrous 2022 midterm. These are the signs to look for as the night progresses:

North Carolina, 7:30PM: The race to succeed term-limited Gov. and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Roy Cooper is pretty much set on the Republican side as Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is believed to have coalesced much of the GOP electorate behind him. However, the Democratic side has become a battle between the more liberal Attorney General Josh Stein and the more moderate former U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, with much of the Democratic establishment appearing to coalesce behind the former. A marquee Republican rematch will also be conducted in the western-based 11th District based in Asheville, where first-term Rep. Chuck Edwards and the former U.S. Rep. he defeated in 2022, Madison Cawthorn, are in a rematch, while Democrats are targeting the south suburban Raleigh 13th District of freshman Rep. Bo Hines and Republicans the Rocky Mount-based 1st District of freshman Rep. Don Davis and the Greensboro-based 6th District of Rep. Kathy Manning. Republicans will also look to nominate candidates in the open Winston-Salem-based 5th District of retiring Rep. Virginia Foxx and in the 8th District stretching from the southern reaches of the Piedmont Triad out to Rockingham and Fort Liberty; both districts favor Republicans in the general election. Candidates who fail to cross 30 percent of the vote will advance to a July 23rd runoff between the top two candidates in each race.

New Jersey, 8PM: The big race to watch will be the Democratic primary of embattled Sen. Bob Menendez, whose reputation for corruption and ethical challenges (despite one such set of allegations being dropped before his 2018 reelection) has dragged down the popularity of the 70-year-old incumbent. He is facing a strong primary challenger in 52-year-old U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who has stressed her ability to "win over Republican areas in our state" as a key advantage between herself and Menendez in campaign ads, while also attacking the incumbent for "not being able to shake it off" - the "it" referring to his reputation for ethical challenges. However, Menendez has gained support from most of the state's Democratic establishment, while Sherrill has faced criticism for voting with Republicans on key economic and tax issues, and has pointed to endorsements from such progressive stars as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and fellow in-state Sen. Cory Booker as evidence of his more liberal bonafides. The winner of this primary will take on celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Öz, who lost the open Senate race in nearby Pennsylvania in 2022 to that state's Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, whose victory was the only pickup of a Republican-held Senate seat in that cycle. Unlike 2022 where he faced allegations of "carpetbagging" and criticism of how he handled his departure from his nationally syndicated TV talk show before his Senate run, Dr. Öz has faced no such significant criticism over his residency status here in New Jersey, and polls have indicated a competitive race against either Menendez or Sherrill.

In addition to the Senate, Republicans are also targeting three suburban districts across the state with the intent of splitting the state's congressional delegation evenly between the two parties (versus the current 9-3 Democratic split). In Sherrill's 11th District anchored in the suburbs west of New York City around Morris, south Passaic and west Essex counties, Republicans have several candidates battling for the nomination in the affluent suburban district that is now a top NRCC target. Another such district, the 5th District stretching across northern Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties, is also being targeted by the NRCC as Rep. Josh Gottheimer continues to draw controversy over turnover within his district and DC offices as well as allegations of harsh treatment towards one of his aides, who was brought to the verge of tears. And in the South Jersey-based 3rd District, Democratic incumbent Andy Kim is staring at a likely rematch against 2022 GOP challenger Bob Healey. Democrats, for their part are also targeting the 7th District stretching from Union and Somerset counties out to the exurban Skylands in Hunterdon and Warren counties, where Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. is running for a second term against a different Democrat from the one he defeated in 2022, Tom Malinowski, while the retirement of 22-term Republican Chris Smith from the state's heavily Republican 4th District on the Jersey Shore has erupted into a full-blown Republican horse race to win a primary that is tantamount to election in a district Trump won by more than 20 percent.

Alabama, 8PM: Three important races are on the clock in the southern half of the state, where a post-election redistricting has resulted in a new, Democratic-leaning Black-White coalition 2nd District which connects most of Mobile to Montgomery. In the Democratic primary here, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher has gained most of the establishment support among Democrats, while constitutional law professor Bryan Fair, who chairs the Board of Directors for the Southern Poverty Law Center, has gained support from progressives despite allegations of "carpetbagging" from Hatcher, with a third Mobile-based candidate, Mobile City Councilman Cory Penn, as a potential spoiler. The current Republican incumbent of the old 2nd, Rep. Barry Moore, is running in the redrawn 1st District that connects more Republican sections of Mobile to the Wiregrass region including Dothan and has been endorsed by Donald Trump and Sen. Tommy Tuberville, while current 1st District Rep. Jerry Carl has been endorsed by Gov. Kay Ivey and the state's other U.S. Senator, Katie Britt. And in the 3rd District stretching from suburbs of Montgomery to much of eastern Alabama, longtime Rep. Mike Rogers' retirement has set off a fierce Republican primary between several candidates, with former U.S. Ambassador to Slovenia and one-time gubernatorial candidate Lindy Blanchard, businesswoman Jessica Taylor and State Rep. Joe Lovvorn (whose district includes his alma mater of Auburn University) believed to be the leading candidates. If no candidate crosses 50 percent of the vote in these races, the top two contenders in each party will advance to a runoff on Tuesday, July 2nd.

Mississippi, 8PM: While Democrats are looking to choose a potential dark horse candidate against Republican Sen. Roger Wicker in November, the big race of the night is for the Democratic nomination in the 2nd District stretching from the state capital of Jackson out to rural counties along the Mississippi Delta, where longtime Rep. Bennie Thompson is retiring. Several Democrats have entered the race, with much of the focus in the majority Black district surrounding on which candidate is the "most progressive", with much of the race turning on controversy over one candidate demanding his opponents take a drug test as well as a fight over which candidate is "most supportive of securing voting rights" believed to be "endangered" under Republican control. If no candidate gets an absolute majority, a runoff will be held on Tuesday, June 25th to determine nominees.

New Mexico, 9PM: Republicans are targeting two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich with 2020 Senate nominee and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti back for a third statewide try, along with aiming for a clean sweep of the state's three congressional districts which some political pundits view as impossible. The toughest battle is in the east Albuquerque-based 1st District of Melanie Stansbury whose district voted for President Biden by a double-digit margin, with an even tougher race expected for 3rd District-based incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez whose Santa Fe-based district stretches clockwise from Farmington to Roswell. While Republicans also are facing a tough battle in the 2nd District of its incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell, most polls favor Herrell outside the margin of error.

South Dakota, 9PM: In by far the sleepiest state of the night, Rep. Dusty Johnson is a heavy favorite for reelection in November, though he has two Republican candidates who predictably argue the three-term Republican is "insufficiently conservative".

Iowa, 10PM: Democrats have nowhere to go but up here in Iowa, two years after being shut out of the state for the first time since the "Republican Revolution" of 1994 (and also the first time since the Eisenhower administration that Democrats had no representation from Iowa on either side of the Capitol). With the exception of Rep. Randy Feenstra's heavily Republican 4th District in western Iowa, Democrats are targeting the state's entire congressional delegation - the southeast-based 1st District of Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the northeast-based 2nd District of Ashley Hinson, and the Des Moines-based 3rd District of freshman Zach Nunn who is perhaps the most vulnerable of the three.

Montana, 10PM: One of the most important Senate races in the nation will be contested here in November, with incumbent three-term Democrat Jon Tester and his 2018 Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale, locked in as the overwhelming favorites to win their parties' respective nominations. As for the congressional seat being vacated by Rosendale, the real contest in the open, strongly Republican 2nd District, stretching from Bllings and Helena out to Great Falls and Glendive, is the Republican nomination to succeed the two-term Republican. Democrats, meanwhile, will be looking to nominate a candidate to take on incumbent Republican first-term Gov. Greg Gianforte.

Northern California, 11PM (House): A multitude of congressional battles are occurring across the Golden State, including several throughout Northern California. In the San Francisco Bay Area, explosive Democratic primaries have emerged in six open seats held by incumbent Democrats Barbara Lee in Oakland, Zoe Lofgren in San Jose, Anna Eshoo in Palo Alto, Eric Swalwell in the East Bay suburbs, Jared Huffman in the North Bay, and Mike Thompson in the Napa Valley, as well as Doris Matsui outside of the Bay Area in northern Sacramento and Sacramento County; with the exception of Swalwell and Huffman who are both running for Senate, all of these incumbents are retiring. In addition, 2022 gubernatorial nominee and State Sen. Brian Dahle is believed to have the inside track to succeed retiring Republican Doug LaMalfa in the 1st District anchored in Chico, while Republican freshmen Tom Patti in Stockton and Kevin Kiley in suburban Sacramento are waging their first reelection bids as targets of the DCCC, along with freshman Democrat Adam Gray and moderate Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with the latter being a perennial target of the DCCC. In addition, recalled former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will look to make a political comeback against San Francisco Supervisor Catherine Stefani, whose constituents at City Hall include the district's former Congresswoman, Nancy Pelosi, in the runoff round of last April's special election to succeed the former House Speaker.

Southern California, 11PM (House): Nine open seats will be watched closely across Southern California tonight, including that of House Speaker and current U.S. Senate candidate Kevin McCarthy in Bakersfield. While McCarthy is likely to win one of two spots for his race, a battle of two Republicans or a Republican-Democrat battle strongly favoring the former is the likely outcome for November. Eight other open seats will be watched as well, including three held by Democratic Senate candidates Adam Schiff north of Hollywood, Raul Ruiz in the Coachella Valley, and Katie Porter in coastal Orange County which is a major NRCC target. Four Democrats - Brad Sherman in the San Fernando Valley, Linda Sánchez north of Long Beach, Maxine Waters in south Los Angeles and Los Angeles County and Grace Napolitano in the San Gabriel Valley - are also retiring, with Democrats heavily favored win to each of them, while 16-term Republican Ken Calvert's retirement from his Riverside County district has opened up a competitive battleground. Several Republicans will also have to contend in five seats in the Los Angeles area being targeted by the DCCC, including the Orange County districts of Young Kim, Michelle Steel and freshman Brian Maryott, the northern LA County district of Mike Garcia, and the Ventura County district of Matt Jacobs with Democrats vowing competitive candidates in each of the districts.

California, 11PM (U.S. Senate): In arguably the most important race of the night, where venerable U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein is retiring, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is looking to move across the Capitol to the Senate in what many consider a huge gamble where McCarthy is giving up the third-highest position in the country for a six-year term as a freshman Senator from a prominent blue state, with the only other Republican of note being Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell, in a race where the Democrat would be favored to win. However, the focus has shifted from whether or not McCarthy will even achieve the impossible and win Feinstein's Senate seat to whether or not Democrats will even have a candidate to run in November.

While Republicans have effectively coalesced around McCarthy and a surging Grenell, Democrats have devolved into a very nasty and expensive primary fight involving five U.S. Reps. (Adam Schiff, Raul Ruiz, Jared Huffman, Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell, as well as former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson and three other Democrats with legislative experience as well as scandal-plagued former LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva who is nominally running as an independent. While Porter has been endorsed by her mentor and one-time presidential hopeful in Sen. Elizabeth Warren, she has struggled to unite progressives (particularly in the Bay Area where Swalwell and Huffman have enjoyed sizable support). Ruiz and Bustamante have coalesced support from Hispanics across the state, but have also struggled to corral support in the critical Los Angeles and San Diego counties, where Schiff has maintained sizable strength in the former. Despite clarion calls from many top Democrats to unite behind a "consensus candidate" for the seat, the state party has rebuffed calls along with Feinstein to anoint a successor, though both the Los Angeles Times and San Francisco Chronicle have endorsed Schiff as their lone Democratic choice along with McCarthy for the Republicans in November. Efforts to replace the top two primary system with a ranked choice voting system similar to the one implemented in Alaska in 2022 in Sacramento have also failed, with Gov. Gavin Newsom looking to punt the issue until after the 2024 election.

Though rumors exist that Villanueva would look to peel off support among some Republicans (given Villanueva's past brief support from some conservatives over his battles with recalled former District Attorney George Gascon), California Republicans have urged their supporters to coalesce behind either McCarthy or Grenell and have warned that "a vote for Villanueva is both a vote for corruption and a vote for Democrats". Many of the last polls conducted before the primary showed McCarthy leading with 15-25 percent, while second place is a battle between Democrats Porter and Schiff and Republican Grenell. The top two finishers in tonight's jungle primary will advance to November, but if Grenell were to finish second overall, it would create the rarest of all possibilities: a November election with two Republicans and no Democrats, effectively handing Republicans their first pickup of the 2024 cycle in the least expected of places, and creating an embarrassing crisis situation for Democrats in the home state of Kamala Harris.

Pundits and the national news media are not taking the race lightly. "If the combined vote for the more establishment-oriented McCarthy and the more-America First aligned Grenell were to exceed 35, 40 or even 45 percent, Democrats will likely be in deep trouble", noted one California pundit who wished to remain anonymous. Assessing the situation, The Young Turks host Cenk Uygur remarked, "If Republicans win both spots for the election in November to succeed Feinstein, there is going to be a reckoning like no other in the California Democratic Party". Most, if not all of the major network evening news anchors will be anchoring from Los Angeles tonight, with ABC's David Muir, CBS's Norah O'Donnell and NBC's Lester Holt, along with Univision's Jorge Ramos and Fox News's Bret Baier and Trace Gallagher (the latter already based in Los Angeles) all anchoring their newscasts from their networks' Los Angeles bureaus.

[SaintStan86]

It is now midnight in Los Angeles - and 3AM in New York City. The biggest congressional primary day of the year has come and gone, but reality has set in for better or worse...

June 4, 2024
MENENDEZ TURNS BACK PRIMARY CHALLENGE, WILL FACE DR. OZ IN NOVEMBER
On Tuesday night, Sen. Bob Menendez turned back a strong challenge from U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the Democratic primary where Menendez is seeking a fourth term, winning 56 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Sherrill. Menendez, 70, achieved victory on Tuesday by running up strong margins in working-class and minority communities across New Jersey, primarily in his North Jersey home base centered in Hudson County, where he won over 60 percent of the vote and previously served in Congress before his appointment to the U.S. Senate when his predecessor, fellow Democrat Jon Corzine, was elected Governor in 2005. Menendez also won handily in Middlesex and Camden counties, both also liberal bastions with sizable minority populations, and performed most strongly in majority Black and Latino neighborhoods across the state. Sherrill, 52, ran up her strongest margins in more suburban parts of the state, including her political base in Morris and western Essex counties as well as the Jersey Shore region, the exurban Skylands in North Jersey, and Burlington County in South Jersey, but ultimately failed to overcome Menendez's strong support in the aforementioned majority-minority communities as well as from Gov. Phil Murphy and fellow Sen. Cory Booker, along with leading progressives including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

While Menendez celebrated the victory, declaring "Here in New Jersey, they can try to throw everything at us, but in the end they chose to stick with a proven progressive fighter who stood with Joe Biden and will stand with Kamala Harris this November" to his supporters at a watch party in Jersey City, Sherrill thanked her own supporters at her watch party in Short Hills, while stopping short of acknowledging the result let alone any potential hint of endorsing her opponent: "Tonight may not have gone our way, but more than ever New Jerseyans spoke out and we leave tonight having taken the high road from the start of our mission to the very end". Meanwhile, at former President Donald Trump's Trump National Golf Course in Bedminster, Dr. Öz (who easily won his primary with over 70 percent against two lower-profile challengers who ran to his right, among others) was joined by a surprise guest in former President Donald Trump: "We have a great opportunity to send Sleepy Joe and his followers packing, and Dr. Öz will do exactly that right here in New Jersey!" Öz continued: "New Jersey is ready for an outsider who will stand up to medical tyranny, to government tyranny, and everything in between that has plagued our beautiful state. As your next Senator, you will be my first priority!".

New Jersey voters also nominated congressional candidates in several districts across the state being watched closely by both parties. In Sherrill's Morris County-based 11th District, Morris County Commissioner Tayfun Selen emerged out of a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with the endorsement of Dr. Öz (who like Selen is Turkish-American), two years after coming a close second in the primary for the same seat in the face of attacks from a primary opponent over his Turkish ancestral background; Selen will now face former Parsippany Mayor Michael Soriano, who served one term as Mayor during most of the Trump presidency, in November. In the neighboring 5th District anchored in north Bergen and Passaic counties, Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer will face off against State Asm. Christopher DePhillips in what is expected to be one of the most expensive congressional races in the country - one where DePhillips has already criticized Gottheimer for having "the moral character of Gaston from Beauty and the Beast", while freshman Republican Tom Kean, Jr. will face his first reelection bid as a member of Congress against former Somerset County Commissioner Melonie Marano, one of many local-level elected officials across the Garden State who lost their offices as the winds shifted against Democrats in the Biden era.

Further south of the Tri-State area, Republicans embarked on a crowded primary to succeed 22-term Republican Chris Smith in the 4th District, centered on much of the Jersey Shore. In that primary, conservative TV commentator Mike Crispi benefited from name recognition borne out of his previous run against Smith in the 2022 GOP primary for this district, winning 39 percent of the vote to 31 percent for his closest opponent, State Asm. Vicky Flynn, who had been endorsed by the moderate Smith. Though Smith's first victory in 1980 was considered an upset of sorts, in which Smith benefited from Ronald Reagan's coattails that year as well as incumbent Democrat Frank Thompson's involvement in the Abscam scandal, Crispi is now heavily favored to win his first term in what has been drawn to be the most Republican district in the state, centered on northern Ocean and southern Monmouth counties (though not including many of the beachfront communities in the latter); efforts to convince former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who grew up in the area, to run here two years after losing her congressional seat in Virginia (the 7th District in exurban Northern Virginia) to Republican Yesli Vega ultimately never materialized. And in the 3rd District, primarily set in Burlington County but extending eastward to a sliver of Ocean County, Rep. Andy Kim will be set for a rematch against businessman and 2022 GOP nominee Bob Healey.

June 4, 2024
STEIN DEFEATS SHULER IN DEM PRIMARY FOR NC GOV, TO FACE ROBINSON IN NOVEMBER
Democrats in North Carolina selected Attorney General Josh Stein to be their nominee for Governor on Tuesday night after a close, contentious race that largely turned on the matter of "electability" versus the degree as to "how progressive is too progressive?", a matter that largely played out in numerous television and radio ads in which Stein attacked his chief opponent, former U.S. Rep. and NFL quarterback Heath Shuler, as "too Republican to fight for North Carolinians" - a charge Shuler refuted by pointing to his moderate voting record in Congress from 2006 to 2012. Shuler, in turn, also blasted Stein for being "more interested in hobnobbing with out-of-town leftists who have never slept a night in a North Carolina log cabin than having a beer with the home folks down in Bryson City (Shuler's hometown) who work hard for a living". Shuler, though drew controversy with a comparison to Cooper involving honey: "The difference is Roy Cooper feels right at home with buttermilk biscuits and honey - something Josh Stein will never appreciate", prompting Stein (who is Jewish) to respond during a debate by alluding to a popular Jewish holiday: "I'll be surprised if Heath Shuler even acknowledges that we like to dip our apples in honey"; Shuler later apologized for the comments, but the comments clearly may have damaged him amongst progressives.

While the results were close across the state with Shuler performing more strongly in his western North Carolina home base as well as in rural and most suburban areas throughout the state, Stein's dominant performance in the Research Triangle area between Raleigh and Durham (which he represented in the State Senate where he once served as Minority Whip) was enough for him to overcome Shuler with 39 percent to the latter's 37 percent. Tuesday's primary will set the stage for a historic gubernatorial race where North Carolina's next Governor for the first time will not be a white Christian: Stein, who hopes to become North Carolina's first Jewish Governor, will now take on Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, who easily won his primary with over 70 percent of the vote and hopes to become North Carolina's first African-American Governor. Despite rumors of disunity, Shuler willingly endorsed Stein at his watch party in Asheville: "Now is the time for Democrats across the Tar Heel State to unite and elect Josh Stein to be our next Governor". Both acknowledged the significance of their races, with Stein "urging all Democrats to get behind our campaign and get to working with their neighbors to stop Ron DeSantis and his crony, Mark Robinson, from getting an undeserved job promotion" and Robinson proclaiming "The time is now for a new day in North Carolina, where all regardless of the color of their skin, the name on their degree, their family situation can achieve anything right here in this great state - and together we will make that happen!".

The race for Governor was far from the only race of note in North Carolina. In western North Carolina's 11th District based in Asheville, Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards won a battle of Republican one-termers as he once again defeated his predecessor, former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, in a rematch of their 2022 primary in which Edwards won backing from much of the state's GOP establishment against Cawthorn, who had been plagued by controversy including allegations of sexual misconduct as well as being accused of neglecting his district's needs as he sought higher ambitions such as a run for Governor, only to be talked out of such ambitions by both state party leaders and national conservatives including former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Robinson and encouraged Cawthorn to run for his old seat instead. In the end, Edwards built on his 2022 victory by winning an even larger 47 percent to Cawthorn's 32 percent - the remaining 21 percent being divided between four other minor candidates including one who explicitly ran on "legalizing all drugs and commuting jail sentences for all drug offenders". Despite earnest efforts by Cawthorn's campaign to curry favor with conservatives, Cawthorn's numbers did not improve much from 2022. While the Democrats do have a credible candidate for November in Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer, Trump won the district twice by more than 10 percent (even though Cooper only lost here by four points in 2020), making this Edwards' race to lose.

Republicans also ran four other competitive primaries of note across the state. In the neighboring 5th District stretching from the Appalachian foothills to Winston-Salem, where longtime Republican Virginia Foxx is retiring, former State Sen. Deanna Ballard (who represented a State Senate district Foxx served in before she ascended to Congress) finished first with 27 percent of the vote, but will advance to a runoff against second-place finisher and State Rep. Kyle Hall, a former congressional aide who represents a district in Winston-Salem's northern exurbs and finished second with 19 percent in a ten-candidate field; despite the GOP's top choice in Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O'Neill passing on the race to run for the now-open Attorney General post (for which O'Neill narrowly lost to Stein in 2020), Republicans will have no trouble holding this heavily Republican seat, but there will be a runoff on July 23rd to determine the party's nominee as no candidate topped the 30 percent threshold to avoid one. Meanwhile Hall's former boss, former U.S. Rep. and one-time Senate hopeful Mark Walker, avoided a runoff for his race in the newly redrawn 8th District connecting High Point and the southern Piedmont Triad exurbs to the Rockingham area as well as Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg) to the southeast, winning 33 percent to 26 percent for his closest competitor, State Rep. Ben Moss who hails from the latter southern portion of the new district. Walker will face former state Insurance Commissioner and state Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Goodwin in a district that favored Trump by single digits (and where Cooper won in 2020 by less than half a percent).

Republicans also voted on nominees for two congressional districts held by vulnerable Democrats. In the 1st District centered in Rocky Mount and encompassing exurbs of Raleigh and much of the state's Black Belt, first-term Democrat Don Davis will face State Sen. Lisa Stone Barnes in the White-Black coalition seat; Barnes won 34 percent in her primary against Davis's 2022 foe, Sandy Smith who won 26 percent in a seven-candidate GOP primary field. And in the 6th District centered on Greensboro and surrounding suburbs, State House Majority Whip Jon Hardister won the GOP nomination to take on Rep. Kathy Manning in the Democratic-leaning swing district. Democrats also had a competitive primary in the south suburban Raleigh-based 13th District, nominating former State Sen. Sam Searcy with 44 percent of the vote to take on freshman Rep. Bo Hines in a district that favors Republicans but not overwhelmingly so, while incumbent freshman Democrat Jeff Jackson cleared his Democratic primary in the Charlotte-based, Black-White coalition 12th District being vacated by fellow Democrat Alma Adams; Jackson moved from his current 14th District after the south Charlotte-based seat was made more Republican in redistricting by the state Legislature (Rep. Dan Bishop moved here from the neighboring 9th District, with fellow Rep. Richard Hudson's move into Bishop's redrawn 9th also triggering the open seat in the new aforementioned 8th).

June 4, 2024
DEEP SOUTH CONGRESSIONAL BATTLES GO TO RUNOFFS IN ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI
Voters in Alabama and Mississippi decided on nominees Tuesday for two open seats designed to elect an African-American candidate of choice, as well as an incumbent-on-incumbent battle resulting from the redistricting and an open Republican seat in the eastern part of Alabama. The highest-profile contest was in Mississippi, where longtime Rep. and January 6th Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson announced his retirement after three decades in Congress. In the 2nd District connecting the state capital of Jackson to much of the Mississippi River delta from Natchez to Clarksdale, Clarksdale Mayor Chuck Espy (whose uncle Mike Espy was succeeded by Thompson when the former became USDA Secretary under President Bill Clinton in 1993) won 19 percent of the vote in a 14-candidate Democratic primary field, and will head to a runoff against Hinds County District Attorney Jody Owens (a former attorney with the Mississippi chapter of the Southern Poverty Law Center) who finished second with 13 percent. A third candidate, Jackson-based former State Rep. Jarvis Dortch, who now serves as the Executive Director of the Mississippi chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, finished third with 12 percent; the top five candidates in the race each finished with two-thirds of the vote.

While Espy has galvanized support from more moderate Democrats in the district as well as along the Delta, Owens and Dortch mostly split the vote in the state capital. Espy has drawn criticism from his opponents for his more moderate to conservative views, with Owens and Dortch criticizing Espy for being "insufficiently supportive" of efforts to protect voting rights, with Espy retorting by pointing to his past experience at the local and legislative levels: "No one has fought harder to protect the voting rights of voters of all races across the Delta than I have". Espy also stirred controversy when he compelled his opponents to take a drug test, particularly Owens who entered office facing allegations of sexual harassment from women. Owens blasted Espy in television ads throughout the district, calling Espy "a hustler who is more interested in subjecting pro-justice candidates like myself to different standards than his own", and calling Espy an "Uncle Tom" who is subservient to "plantation politics that have done nothing to get voters in the Delta out of the shadows". Republicans are expected to field a candidate to also be decided in a runoff three Tuesdays from tonight on June 25th, even though the 60 percent Black district voted for President Biden by a 2-1 margin, making any chance of a Republican pickup here next to impossible.

Black Democrats also took significant interest in the newly redrawn 2nd District in Alabama, which now connects the state capital of Montgomery to majority Black sections of Mobile and Tuskegee. In the newly drawn district, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher won over 38 percent of the vote with near-unified support from much of Alabama's Democratic establishment as well as former NBA and Auburn University basketball star Charles Barkley, who proclaimed in introducing Hatcher "You're lucky I work three hours from here (referring to his job as an NBA studio analyst for TNT), because otherwise I wouldn't be doing this" during his watch party in Montgomery. Hatcher will now go to a runoff on Tuesday, July 2nd against Southern Poverty Law Center Board of Directors Chairman Bryan Fair, whose day job as a constitutional law professor at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa - located outside of the district - stirred allegations of carpetbagging but nonetheless generated strong support from progressives such as U.S. Reps. Ayanna Pressley and Cori Bush - both prominent African-American members of "the Squad" who touted Fair's progressive bonafides in numerous campaign ads. Fair, who won 22 percent of the vote, declared "the momentum in this race is ours for the taking" and pointed to internal polling "where we are closing the gap with Kirk Hatcher" as evidence of a potential campaign surge. Mobile City Councilman Cory Penn, who finished third with 19 percent, endorsed Hatcher after conceding defeat in his campaign late Tuesday night, having not been able to build much of a campaign base beyond his hometown in the district's far southwest corner.

Republicans in Alabama also made their choices in two other congressional races that are now more strongly pronounced for the GOP than ever before. In the 1st District where two Republican incumbents battled for one congressional seat, the race will now go to a July 2nd runoff as both Reps. Jerry Carl (who currently holds the old 1st based in Mobile) and Barry Moore (the current representative of the old 2nd District in southeast Alabama) failed to crack 50 percent, with Carl polling 45 percent and Moore 39 percent. While both have strong conservative voting records, Carl is viewed as a more establishment-oriented Republican than Moore who previously challenged his predecessor, then-U.S. Rep. Martha Roby, from the right in 2018 before she ultimately retired in 2020, after Roby drew headlines in 2016 for withdrawing her support from then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump over the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape in which Trump made a crude joke regarding a soap opera actress and his affairs with women. Moore has been endorsed by major conservative groups including the Club for Growth, while Carl has been endorsed by House Majority Leader and fellow Gulf Coast Republican Steve Scalise.

North of Montgomery, GOP voters in Alabama's eastern-based 3rd District (which stretches from the northern suburbs of Montgomery out to Auburn and Anniston) also saw their primary go to a runoff on July 2nd as well. In Tuesday's primary, conservative activist and businesswoman Jessica Taylor - making her third run for office in as many cycles - won 32 percent of the vote and first place including over 40 percent in Calhoun County where she was raised, and will advance to a runoff with State Rep. Joe Lovvorn, who narrowly edged out former U.S. Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard for second place with 21 percent to 19 percent for Blanchard; both are Auburn University alums with Lovvorn himself representing the university and its surrounding area in Lee County (which gave over 35 percent of the vote to Lovvorn). Donald Trump did not make an endorsement in this race, despite past overtures in 2022 to steer then-U.S. Senate candidate Blanchard to the gubernatorial race against incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey. The winners of next month's GOP runoffs in the 1st and 3rd Districts will be heavily favored to win reelection in solidly Republican districts that have become even more so in redistricting.

[SaintStan86]

Focus on more House and Senate contests; as presidential contest won't be too interesting at least until after the summer. I think whoever Harris or DeSantis pick for Vice President won't reveal too much. So the House and Senate contests add sizzle to the story.

That's where this is headed in the summer months. Only thing presidential until August will be the veep-stakes, and I've already given out some names on the GOP side. The Democratic side will come in handy soon, but this is not the time while this TL is about to become NSFW because of what is about to transpire in California. And no, I'm not ruling out a Democrat capturing a spot yet, but surprises are definitely in store.

[SaintStan86]

P.S. from the Editor: For those who were wondering "What about the Senate race in Mississippi?", I did not have enough space nor time to reflect on that race except to say that Republican Roger Wicker is a heavy favorite for reelection who will only face a nominal Democratic challenger in November.

June 4, 2024
DEMOCRATS SET "DREAM TEAM" IN IOWA; SENATE CONTESTS SET IN WEST
After getting shut out in historic fashion in 2022, Iowa Democrats laid the groundwork for their comeback Tuesday night by nominating candidates in all of the state's four congressional seats as part of what they call their "Dream Team". In the 1st District anchored in the southeast corner of the state, Davenport Mayor and former Army Ranger Mike Matson won the Democratic primary with relative ease on Tuesday night, benefiting from endorsements by former Transportation Secretary and presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (himself a former Midwestern mayor) and several other mostly moderate Democrats. Matson will now take on two-term GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in what is certain to be one of the most competitive congressional races in the Midwest. Meanwhile, in the neighboring 2nd District in the northeast corner of the state centered on Waterloo but extending out to Dubuque and Mason City, two-term Republican Ashley Hinson will face a rematch with former State Sen. and 2022 Democratic nominee Liz Mathis; both were previously news anchors at the region's local ABC affiliate, KCRG-TV (though not concurrently), before being elected to higher office.

The biggest race to watch in the state, however, will be in the 3rd District anchored in Des Moines and its western suburbs and extending to southern rural counties in the state. In that district, freshman Rep. Zach Nunn will face a tough reelection challenge against State Sen. Janet Petersen, who at one time served as Minority Leader in that chamber and has already amassed over a million dollars in campaign donations so far. Nunn, who himself has raised nearly two million dollars for his own reelection, called his reelection bid "the most important congressional race in the country" and proclaimed that "we are not going to let dark money from outside of Iowa steer this race in the wrong direction". While Nunn's race is certainly the toughest, 4th District incumbent Randy Feenstra will have arguably the easiest. Though Democrats have nominated a credible opponent in former State Rep. Chris Hall, the district has no significant Democratic base outside of Hall's hometown of Sioux City and the college town of Ames. Feenstra is heavily favored for reelection, after defeating a primary challenger whose primary criticisms of the conservative incumbent centered around his vote for Sen. Ben Sasse from neighboring Nebraska in the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa is not the only state where one party is looking to make a credible push for a statewide congressional sweep. In New Mexico, where the Senate contest between vulnerable Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich and 2020 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti (the latter a former TV meteorologist at KRQE-TV, the CBS affiliate serving Albuquerque and almost all of New Mexico) was officially set in stone following Tuesday's primary, Republicans also selected their nominees in two congressional races where the party is looking to "finish the job" from 2022 in addition to also reelecting its lone GOP incumbent in the state. In the 3rd District centered in the state capital of Santa Fe but extending westward to Farmington and as far southeast as Roswell, environmental engineer and rancher Alexis Martinez Johnson will enter a rematch against Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez, while in the 1st District stretching from the east side of Albuquerque out to several rural areas east and south of the city, Democrat Melanie Stansbury is seeking a third term (and second full one) against Republican former State Rep. Nate Gentry who once served as Majority Leader during his one term in which Republicans held the majority in the state House. At the same time, the party will be looking to defend the 2nd District of Rep. Yvette Herrell, whose district includes much of southern New Mexico as well as the west side of Albuquerque, against Democratic State Sen. Jeff Steinborn in the only New Mexico district not considered a tossup (recent polls have the district favoring Herrell).

Arguably the most overlooked state on Tuesday night with South Dakota, which has no Senate or gubernatorial race until 2026 (when Gov. Kristi Noem is term limited); the state's lone Congressman, Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson, easily won his primary (despite being challenged two years ago from his right in the Republican primary) and is heavily favored to be reelected to a fourth term. Not much fireworks took place in nearby Montana either, as Sen. Jon Tester will be set for a rematch against his 2018 Republican opponent, then-State Auditor Matt Rosendale who is now in his second term as a Congressman, and the first representing the reincarnated 2nd District which stretches from the state capital of Helena out to Billings, Great Falls and Glendive. That district is set to remain Republican with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, who briefly considered a longshot presidential bid in 2024 as well as a career singing country music after leaving office, favored to hold on to the seat in November over his Democratic State Rep. Jessica Karjala. A more competitive race can be expected in the nearby 1st District between Missoula and Bozeman, where Rep. Ryan Zinke will be seeking reelection to a third term (and second since the former Trump-era Interior Secretary returned to Congress in 2022) against longtime Missoula Mayor John Engen in a district competitive enough to be targeted by the DCCC. Gov. Greg Gianforte also found out his Democratic opponent on Tuesday night as well, with former State Superintendent Denise Juneau (who recently moved back to Montana after serving three years as Superintendent of Seattle's public school system) having won the Democratic nomination to take on Gianforte with little difficulty.

Over two-thirds of the votes have been counted in California's primaries, with more mail-in ballots continuing to be counted and postmarked as it is now 7AM on the West Coast and 10AM in the nation's capital...

June 5, 2024
MATCHUPS SET IN NOVEMBER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH VOTES STILL OUTSTANDING IN MANY DISTRICTS
Voters across California took to the polls on Tuesday to nominate candidates for the November election who will represent them both in Washington and in Sacramento. While much of the focus has been on the high-stakes Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein, congressional candidates descended upon a truckload of vacancies both created by the Senate race and also retirements as well, as well as a special election in the San Francisco district once represented for over a generation by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In that district (the 11th District, covering all but a southern portion of the city including the Excelsior and Visitacion Valley neighborhoods), San Francisco City Supervisor Catherine Stefani turned in a strong performance in her home district in Pacific Heights to defeat former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin with 53 percent of the vote to Boudin's 46 percent. The race had significant intrigue as Boudin sought to make a political comeback after being recalled in 2022 over concerns regarding his "soft on crime" policies, in a recall where Stefani was the first Supervisor to endorse his ultimately successful recall. Stefani was also endorsed by Pelosi and much of California's Democratic establishment, while Boudin enjoyed support from progressives.

While the recalled former DA's closer race was in large part attributed to the absence of the aforementioned southern portion of the city (which voted to recall him in 2022), Boudin struggled to build support outside of his core support base in such neighborhoods as Haight-Ashbury, Bernal Heights and the Mission District that also voted against the recall. Stefani, in addition to winning over 60 percent in Pacific Heights (which also happens to be Pelosi's own neighborhood), also carried many more affluent and conservative parts of the city including the Marina District, the Embarcadero and the Sunset District, along with winning 60 percent of the Asian-American vote. Stefani will be sworn in as early as next week, and has already hired some former staffers of Pelosi's to serve in her DC and district offices, but will face a rematch against Boudin in November as the latter also finished second in the general primary for the seat.

The special election to fill Pelosi's seat was far from the only notable race on the ballot in the Bay Area, let alone California. Across the bay in the Oakland-based 12th District where longtime Democrat Barbara Lee is retiring, State Asw. Mia Bonta (whose husband is California Attorney General Rob Bonta) will go to a runoff against Oakland City Councilmember and 2022 mayoral candidate Loren Taylor in November, while in the suburban Alameda County-based 14th District being vacated by Democratic Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Eric Swalwell, near-unified support from Republicans enabled attorney and former State Asw. Catharine Baker (who during her time was the only Republican at the federal or state level to represent the Bay Area) to earn a runoff spot with just over 34 percent of the vote, but she faces long odds in a district where the top vote-getting Democrat, Fremont City Council member Jenny Kassan, will be heavily favored to win the 3-to-1 Democratic district. In the Silicon Valley-based 16th District where 16-term Democrat Anna Eshoo is retiring, it will be an all-Democrat battle pitting Saratoga City Councilmember and two-time Eshoo challenger Rishi Kumar against State Board of Equalization District 2 incumbent Sally Lieber, a longtime Democratic elected official with links to Kamala Harris. And in the nearby, heavily Hispanic 18th District stretching from the heart of San Jose out to Salinas and Hollister, former U.S. Rep. Josh Harder (who lost his 9th District in the 2022 "red wave") will attempt to make a political comeback after winning a spot in November against former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, who is endorsed by the district's outgoing Democratic Rep., Zoe Lofgren.

Three other open seats in Northern California are also widely expected to stay in Democrats' hands, with two of those districts - the North Coast-anchored 2nd District stretching from Marin County to Eureka and the 4th District which cuts across the Napa Valley, Santa Rosa and Yolo County - already locked in for the Democrats. The former will see State Sen. Mike McGuire challenging former State Asm. Marc Levine in November for the right to succeed current Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Jared Huffman, while the latter will pit Napa County Supervisor Ryan Gregory (who is endorsed by the district's outgoing Democrat, Rep. Mike Thompson) against State Sen. Bill Dodd, a former Republican who once served on the same Napa County Board of Supervisors and who is widely respected in Sacramento, but has also been scorned by more progressive Democrats who favor Gregory (and whom recently released videos to YouTube where he spoke favorably of Republicans in the past). And while Republicans did manage to see a candidate advance to November in the downtown and south Sacramento-based 7th District, State Sen. and pediatrician Richard Pan is heavily favored to succeed retiring Rep. Doris Matsui in the diverse, heavily Democratic district. Republicans though will be favored to hold on to one district - the open Chico and Redding-based 1st District of retiring Rep. Doug LaMalfa, where former State Sen. and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Brian Dahle is heavily favored to win in November.

Both parties also landed opponents for freshman incumbents in three Central Valley districts. Democrats nominated former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs in the Stockton-based 9th District won in 2022 by freshman Republican Rep. Tom Patti and Bakersfield City Councilmember Andrae Gonzales in the 22nd District of moderate Republican Rep. David Valadao, one of four Republicans remaining out of the ten who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in the second impeachment trial, as first-term Democratic Rep. Adam Gray faces a rematch with farmer and 2022 challenger John Duarte in the 13th District connecting a western slice of the Central Valley anchored in Modesto and Merced. Even though many of these districts will see partisan Democrat-on-Democrat battles, they stand to become litmus test for "how progressive is too progressive" with Republicans looking to potentially influence some of the districts with unclear intentions (either to favor a more moderate candidate or pick whomever is the more progressive choice to "up the crazy factor" amongst the Democratic caucus.

[SaintStan86]

June 5, 2024
CONGRESSIONAL MATCHUPS SET IN LOS ANGELES, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Voters across Southern California went to the polls on Tuesday night to elect nominees for the November election in several districts across Los Angeles, San Diego, Bakersfield and other areas across the region, with four open seats vacated by members of Congress running for retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat among the seats showing significant interest on Tuesday, along with several others held by retiring longtime House members and seats that will be of significant interest to both parties' campaign strategies to either hold the House amongst Republicans or take it back amongst Democrats. Standing out amongst these seats is that of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose heavily Republican 20th District in and around Bakersfield and Fresno drew wide interest from many Republicans as well as some Democrats. However, the district is widely expected to remain such as State Asm. Vince Fong, who once served nearly a decade as McCarthy's district director, won over 35 percent of the vote in the primary and will face a nominal Democratic opponent in November.

Most of the action, as expected, was in and around Los Angeles, where Democrats either sought to anoint successors to retiring incumbents or produce a singular challenger to sitting Republicans. Two of the biggest high-stakes races attracting strong interest from Hollywood donors were in two heavily Democratic districts covering areas north of downtown Los Angeles. The more expensive of the two was in the heavily Democratic 30th District of 12-term incumbent Adam Schiff who is a leading contender amongst Democrats for Feinstein's seat. In the district stretching from Burbank and Glendale down to Hollywood and Wilshire Boulevard, November will see an all-Democrat battle between Glendale-based State Rep. Laura Friedman, a former TV and film production executive, and West Hollywood Councilmember Lindsey Horvath, who recently ran for Los Angeles County Supervisor in District 3. Another expensive race ensued in the San Fernando Valley-based 32nd District of retiring Democrat Brad Sherman, which connects such Valley neighborhoods as Chatsworth and Sherman Oaks to coastal LA county enclaves from Brentwood to Malibu. In that district, former State Asm. Adrin Nazarian (a former aide to Sherman) decided to forego an earlier bid for LA City Council to enter the crowded field to succeed Sherman; Nazarian finished first with over 30 percent of the vote and is heavily favored to win the seat over Republican educator and conservative activist Karen Siegemund, who comprised nearly all of the Republican vote (under 30 percent) but faces long odds in the 2-1 Democratic district.

In other parts of LA County, three open Democratic seats also saw their matchups for November decided. In the San Gabriel Valley-based 31st District anchored in West Covina, former State Sen. and 2018 Lieutenant Gov. hopeful Ed Hernández finished first in a field of four Democrats and one Republican for the seat of retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano; while not much younger than the 87-year old Napolitano, the 66-year old Hernández is favored to maintain the seat for the Democrats over the lone but nominal Republican challenger. In the nearby 38th District of retiring Democrat Linda Sánchez, which stretches from Montebello and Norwalk through Whittier to Diamond Bar, a much younger Democrat in 38-year-old former State Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon will face off against Whittier City Councilmember and 2022 State Assembly candidate Jessica Martinez, an election integrity hardliner who was backed by former President Donald Trump despite the odds. And in the 43rd District of retiring 17-term Democrat Maxine Waters, there will be no overtly funded GOP underdog in the historically Black, heavily Democratic district anchored in Inglewood and Compton, as November will feature two Democrats in former State Asw. Autumn Burke, the daughter of former U.S. Rep. Yvonne Brathwaite Burke, and former State Sen. and 2016 congressional candidate Isadore Hall III, who has criticized Burke for moving from Marina del Rey to run in the district, arguing that "whoever succeeds Maxine Waters needs to be someone who is emotionally and physically invested in this district".

Two marginal Republican-held districts also saw significant action from Democrats on Tuesday, even though both Republicans - Matt Jacobs in the Ventura County-based 26th District and Mike Garcia in the Santa Clarita and Palmdale-based 27th District - finished on top with just under 50 percent each. Jacobs will now take on State Asw. Jacqui Irwin, considered one of the DCCC's top recruits, while Garcia will face off against businesswoman and nurses' advocate Pilar Schiavo, who ran for a State Assembly seat in the 2022 election against a Republican incumbent. Another battleground, Riverside County, will see a competitive battle in the 41st District of retiring 16-term Republican Ken Calvert between former State Sen. Melissa Melendez (who attempted a primary challenge against Calvert in 2022 but ultimately missed the filing deadline) and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (who challenged Calvert in 2022), as well as an emerging competitive bid in the 25th District, where Rep. Raul Ruiz decided to seek a run for Senate, between Riverside County Supervisor Manuel Pérez and Indio City Councilmember Glenn Miller, the latter of whom narrowly edged out conservative activist and fellow Republican Erin Cruz for second place in Tuesday's primary.

Finally, while San Diego is not expected to be of much interest given that its three Democratic incumbents as well as Republican Darrell Issa are all favored to win reelection in their districts in November, the 49th District stretching northward from Encinitas and Oceanside to Camp Pendleton and extreme southeast Orange County stands to be a battleground in November with first-term Republican Rep. Brian Maryott facing off against San Diego County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, a former Republican-turned-Democrat who drew fire for purchasing a rental property in the district for the sole purpose of running against Maryott, even though Fletcher (who lives in north San Diego, well outside of the district) has denied the charge. Not surprisingly, Democrats will be fielding candidates once again against Orange County's two Korean-American Republicans, with Rep. Young Kim being challenged in the northeast Orange County-based 40th District by labor attorney Florice Hoffman and Rep. Michelle Steel set to face off against teacher and local Democratic activist Mark Anthony Paredes in the Fullerton-to-Garden Grove-based 45th District. The marquee race in Orange County, however, will be in the 47th District whose incumbent Democrat, Rep. Katie Porter, is one of the leading contenders for the Dianne Feinstein Senate seat. The matchup in the wealthy coastal Orange County district sprawled across Huntington Beach, Irvine and Laguna Beach will pit Porter's 2022 opponent, former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh (who narrowly lost to Porter that year) against former U.S. Rep. Harley Rouda, who decided against running for his old congressional seat and deferred to Porter instead that year. Many political pundits expect the 47th, which was previously historically Republican until Trump's "suburban stigma" swept the footprint of the district - and the entire Orange County delegation - into Democratic hands in 2018, to be the most expensive congressional race in the country.

WARNING:
A certain prominent progressive podcaster with an explosive attitude and penchant for controversy has lost it in this next story for obvious reasons...you may want to get the kids out of the room or stand by to correct them, because this progressive has clearly lost his lunch and unleashed his inner potty mouth. VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED.

June 5, 2024
VOTES STILL BEING COUNTED IN CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE; McCARTHY ADVANCES TO NOVEMBER WITH OPPONENT UNCLEAR
With over 70 percent of the vote counted in California's crucial congressional and legislative races, the picture has started to crystallize with regards to which seats will be competitive in November and which ones will simply be getting a coronation. While votes still remain to be counted, one candidate has already advanced to November as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has polled 21.15 percent of the vote with 30 percent of remaining votes outstanding in a Senate race where 55 percent of votes have gone to Democrats, 39 percent have gone to Republicans, and independent and third-party candidates account for the remaining six percent. Despite having a nearly 2-1 disadvantage to Democrats in total voter registration (with one-quarter of voters registered as "decline to state"), Republicans acknowledged "significant momentum" in the results: "The results of last night prove that, despite the obvious challenges Republicans are purported to face across the state, voters are fed up with the unchecked, reckless and dangerous policies that Democrats have imposed on California to the detriment of her people".

The statement comes as the picture remains unclear as to who is polling second overall, but so far the results have set off panic within California Democratic circles as former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell is currently in second place with 14.92 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff with 14.40 percent, fellow U.S. Rep. Katie Porter with 13.29 percent, former Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante with 8.83 percent, and U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell with 7.01 percent. Former Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva managed to win 4.02 percent as an Independent, siphoning off some mostly Republican votes in the process, but his candidacy appears to have not threatened the GOP's unannounced "ulterior motive" to shut Democrats out of the November election - a threat that prompted California Republicans to urge their supporters to vote for Republican candidates in order to participate in future party business such as state conventions and executive committees at the local level. While Schiff generated most of his support from the Los Angeles area as well as from "donor class" Democrats and establishment-type moderates, Porter's strongest support came from progressives who largely split between her and Swalwell (as well as another Bay Area congressman, Rep. Jared Huffman), which greatly affected her performance in the San Francisco Bay Area.

In other demographic splits, Hispanics largely favored Schiff and McCarthy (who himself represents a sizable Latino vote in his Bakersfield-based district), with Bustamante and Rep. Raul Ruiz also winning sizable numbers of Hispanic votes in Los Angeles as well as the Central Valley and Inland Empire. The progressive split in the Bay Area also enabled McCarthy to win pluralities in some Bay Area counties such as Napa and Contra Costa, with Schiff coming first with pluralities in most of the others and another Democratic progressive, Marianne Williamson, winning over six percent in the South Bay/Santa Monica district of Rep. Ted Lieu and five percent in the West Hollywood-to-Burbank district represented by Schiff. Grenell also managed to win a narrow plurality in San Diego County over McCarthy, whose strongest area in the state was in extreme northern California including the Redding and Chico areas. While Democrats are hopeful that their traditional mail-in ballot advantage will work out in the end with regards to Porter and Schiff, many are pessimistic as supporters of Grenell (notwithstanding their overt criticism of mail-in ballots as "riddled with fraud") have been unusually aggressive in "flooding" mail-in ballot boxes to, per words from former President Donald Trump (who has endorsed Grenell) in a recent post on Truth Social, "take a page from the Democrats and counter their unfair advantage to leave them Dazed and Confused, just like Matthew McConaughey!".

The unclear situation for the Democrats led to a profanity-laced tirade by Cenk Uygur on his Wednesday podcast for The Young Turks. "Can you imagine how ******* pissed off I am at California Democrats for the way they set themselves up for ******* failure by refusing to unite behind a credible challenger to Kevin McCarthy?!? Because this **** didn't have to happen, and **** did in fact happen last night!!! You may not have agreed, I may not have agreed, with Dianne Feinstein on everything, but we were so G** **** grateful to have her as our Senator, fighting for change, fighting for progress, standing up to the Bushes and to Donald Trump over the years, and this is how they ******* repay us?!?!?", Uygur belted out during his minutes-long rant on the results of last night's election, even though 30 percent of the vote - a percentage equivalent to approximately 15 congressional districts in the state - remain outstanding. Uygur also vowed "revenge" on the Democratic leadership in California: "No more ******* Mr. Nice Guy! Time to ******* bust some **** and put these ************* in their place and make sure this sorry excuse of a primary never happens again, because now we are stuck with the absolute worst choice of two evils: a ******* incompetent Speaker and an even more disgusting token ****boy of Donald Trump who was a real ********** the whole time he served in Washington. I'd rather get AIDS than vote for one of these two cowards". Within minutes, Uygur faced intense criticism from LGBTQ+ activists including the organization GLAAD, as well as a statement by the Log Cabin Republicans condemning Uygur's comments, which included a number of homophobic slurs: "Cenk Uygur has proven to all of us how fleeting his care and concern for folks in the LGBTQ+ community really is, and his attacks on the honorable Richard Grenell have revealed his true colors."

It is not certain when the votes will be certified, but both sides stand a good chance of calling for a recount given the razor-thin margins for the second place position to challenge McCarthy in November. With the exception of McCarthy, Grenell, Schiff and Porter, all of the other candidates have since conceded, and both parties as well as all of the four campaigns that have not conceded have hired legal defense teams to represent them in what is likely to be a contentious recount.

[SaintStan86]

June 7, 2024
PARTIES, CANDIDATES OBTAIN LAWYERS AS POTENTIAL RECOUNT LOOMS IN CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE
On Friday, lawyers in California representing four U.S. Senate candidates and both the Democratic and Republican parties began filing lawsuits in state and federal courts pertaining to the uncertain outcome in the U.S. Senate primary from Tuesday. Among the notable lawyers brought in include the Republican National Committee's general counsel Kyle Hupfer (who is also Chairman of the Indiana Republican Party and has ties to former Vice President Mike Pence's inner circle), prominent Democratic super lawyer Marc Elias (who represented President Joe Biden's 2020 campaign in former President Donald Trump's multiple lawsuits challenging the election results), former Pepperdine University School of Law dean Ken Starr (who is best remembered for his numerous investigations into then-President Bill Clinton's involvement in the Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky scandals) who will be representing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and former Montgomery County, Pennsylvania District Attorney Bruce Castor (known infamously for his refusal to prosecute comedian Bill Cosby's sexual assault allegations and more famously for serving as lead counsel to Trump in his second impeachment trial) who will be representing former Ambassador Ric Grenell, as well as 92-year-old former Attorney General Edwin Meese, who served under Ronald Reagan and will serve as a legal consultant to the RNC. The attraction of many of the most notable lawyers in politics in recent memory is especially notable, and highlights the extremely urgent nature of the close election results.

With 90 percent of the vote now counted, not much has changed as Democrats now hold a 54-40 advantage in the results with many of the votes from the Central Valley as well as mail-in ballots now coming in. For the Republicans, McCarthy currently holds 22.09 percent of the vote, while Grenell has 14.71 percent. Amongst the Democrats, U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter continue to hold third and fourth with 14.48 percent and 13.36 percent, respectively, continuing to account for around half of the Democrats' total vote count. While Porter's camp remains hopeful that numbers can improve for her campaign, her chances of overtaking Schiff let alone second in the overall vote count continue to get even slimmer, with her supporters lashing out at fellow progressive U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell and Jared Huffman - both of whom represent the crucial San Francisco Bay Area in Congress - for "stealing crucial votes that could have gone to help Katie Porter". Schiff's campaign, meanwhile, pointed to momentum in the results: "We are confident that when the dust settles, we eventually will overtake Richard Grenell for second place and secure our destiny to elect Adam Schiff to the Senate". Much of the focus has started to center on military and overseas ballots, some of which are certain to disproportionately favor Grenell.

Meanwhile, Castor denied the Schiff campaign's claim of "momentum", pointing out that "What is going to matter is whether or not the mail-in ballots have authentic signatures, and it's fair to say that the Schiff campaign is counting on stuffed ballot boxes to steal the election from Ambassador Grenell", while Starr contends that "most of the vote remaining is coming from more distant areas of the state, so unless every one of those votes was from a Democrat, I'm not certain there's much for Democrats to crow about", and pointed out that the results are "barely going to move the needle". Elias though remains confident: "Everyone in California knows almost all of the outstanding ballots that must be counted are coming from Democrats, just like it was in the historic 2018 midterms when they made big gains, and those ballots are going to tip the scale in Schiff's favor", while not elaborating much on Porter; this statement does nothing to placate Porter's campaign which decried the DNC's choice of Elias as "more proof that the Democratic establishment is more interested in preserving the failed status quo than standing up for warriors who will stand for the people". California election law does not require an automatic recount, and such a recount can only be requested within a five day period starting 31 days after the election - meaning that Schiff's campaign (which is actively requesting one) would have to wait until July 5th to do so.

June 8, 2024
DEMOCRATS LOOK TO RACES IN NEVADA, DMV AS CALIFORNIA SENATE VOTE COUNT CONTINUES
While the outcome remains unclear in California, Democrats turned their attention to upcoming congressional primaries in several states including Virginia, Maryland and Nevada where primaries are set to take place on Tuesday. In Virginia, the party will be looking to challenge first-term Republicans Jen Kiggans in the Virginia Beach-based 2nd District and Yesli Vega in the exurban Northern Virginia-based 7th District, along with "dark horse challenges" in the Republican-held seats of established Reps. Rob Wittman (1st District, Richmond suburbs) and Bob Good (5th District, Charlottesville plus Lynchburg and Southside Virginia), while also seeking to defend three-term incumbent Jennifer Wexton who will be facing a rematch in the Loudoun County-based 10th District with her 2022 GOP rival Hung Cao, a retired Navy captain who nearly upended Wexton's reelection that year and was easily renominated in a ranked-choice firehouse primary last month on the first ballot - a much easier race than his 2022 nomination which took nine ballots. That particular race is widely expected to be one of the most expensive in this cycle, with Cao's close result triggering a frenzy of campaign spending and attention from Republican donors and the NRCC. The fact that the leading Republican candidate against two-term Sen. Tim Kaine, State Sen. Jill Vogel, hails from the 10th District has made the nature of Wexton's reelection bid more tenuous.

The Virginia races are far from the only races of note in the greater DMV region surrounding Washington, D.C. In the District of Columbia, 17-term Democratic at-large Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, who will turn 87 on Thursday, is favored to win an 18th term representing the nation's capital as a non-voting delegate, even though she is facing vigorous challenges from two progressives who contend that Norton "has outstayed her welcome in Washington" and "has done little to move the needle on securing statehood for the District". Vice President Kamala Harris, in endorsing Norton, has defended Norton's longstanding efforts to secure statehood for Washington, D.C.: "The people of Washington are grateful for the service that Eleanor Holmes Norton has given to her people, and she is an icon amongst trailblazers who will keep the fire burning". Voters in Maryland will also go to the polls on Tuesday to select House and Senate nominees, with U.S. Rep. John Sarbanes widely favored to win the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin, whose Senate seat was once held by Sarbanes' father, Paul Sarbanes; notable congressional races include primaries for both parties in the 3rd District being vacated by Sarbanes and the 2nd District of retiring Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger (both in the suburbs of Baltimore), as well as the Democratic primary for the 5th District in Southern Maryland where former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is retiring after 22 terms, and the Republican primary in the western-based 6th District of vulnerable Democrat David Trone.

Two early primary states, South Carolina and Nevada, will also host primaries on Tuesday. In South Carolina's majority Black 6th District, a competitive Democratic primary is likely to go to a runoff in two weeks with the winner widely favored to succeed retiring former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, while a runoff is also expected in the suburban Columbia and Aiken-based 2nd District for Republicans looking to succeed retiring Rep. Joe Wilson. Democrats will also be seeking to nominate candidates in longshot bids in the 2nd District as well as the Charleston and Lowcountry-based 1st District of maverick Republican Rep. Nancy Mace, who after avoiding a runoff in a contentious primary against an ally of former President Donald Trump, is now widely favored to dominate her primary on Tuesday. And in Nevada, Democrats will be looking to assemble a "Dream Team" for its 2024 congressional slate after getting wiped out in the 2022 midterms by Republicans while also having to defend vulnerable Sen. Jacky Rosen against the winner of a high-stakes GOP primary on Tuesday.

Maine and North Dakota are the only two other states holding congressional primaries on Tuesday. Maine's U.S. Senate race is crucial as U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree and former U.S. Rep. Jared Golden have been duking it out in the Democratic primary both in debates and on television, with the winner likely to face a tough election against likely Republican nominee and State Sen. Rick Bennett for the seat being vacated by retiring Independent Angus King; both congressional districts have also attracted interest from Democrats looking to take on Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the Bangor-based 2nd District and Republicans seeking a dark horse bid in Pingree's 1st District anchored in heavily Democratic Portland that favors Democrats but not overwhelmingly so. And while North Dakota will have gubernatorial and congressional primaries on Tuesday, Republicans are widely expected to renominate Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. Kevin Cramer and Rep. Kelly Armstrong - all strong favorites for reelection in the heavily Republican state against likely nominal Democratic-NPL challengers.

[SaintStan86]

72 hours later...

June 11, 2024
SENATE MATCHUPS SET IN VIRGINIA, NEVADA AND MAINE; SOUTH CAROLINA RACES GO TO RUNOFF
Voters in several states went to the polls on Tuesday to nominate candidates for the U.S. Senate and congressional races across the country, and in some states the results were all the more unsurprising.

In Virginia, what was seen as likely became a formality as vulnerable Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, the party's 2016 vice presidential nominee alongside Hillary Clinton, will face a strong challenge from wealthy Republican State Sen. Jill Vogel. Vogel, a mother of four with two stepchildren who has since become a key ally of Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Richmond, marked the beginning of her general election campaign in Loudoun County: "Tonight, the voters of Virginia have put their trust in me as the best candidate to take on Tim Kaine, and in November we are going to send Hillary Clinton and (former Virginia Gov.) Terry McAuliffe's pied piper to the unemployment line too many of us have sat in over the last four years". Current polls have indicated a neck-and-neck battle between the two candidates, with the latest Trafalgar Group poll putting Vogel narrowly ahead of Kaine and Public Policy Polling indicating a narrow lead for the two-term Democrat Kaine, who on Tuesday proclaimed "We are just getting started, and in the end voters will see who has been fighting for the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia, and it's not someone who's eaten off silver spoons" in a direct potshot at Vogel's wealth.

Virginia's congressional races were also set on Tuesday, joining the already decided rematch between Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton and Republican retired naval officer Hung Cao in Northern Virginia's 10th District based in Loudoun County, as Cao won a ranked-choice firehouse primary two weeks prior. In the 2nd District centered on Virginia Beach, Democrats nominated State Del. Kelly Fowler, who represents a district that straddles Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, to take on first-term Republican Jen Kiggans, while in the 7th District anchored in Prince William County and exurban Northern Virginia another first-term Republican, Rep. Yesli Vega, will battle for a second term against staunchly liberal former State Del. Elizabeth Guzmán in the first-ever all-Latina congressional race in the history of the Commonwealth.

Two of the more intriguing Democrats nominated on Tuesday were Michael Signer, who served as Mayor of Charlottesville on the day of the infamous "Unite the Right" White supremacist rally in 2017 and will take on two-term Republican Bob Good in the Charlottesville and Southside Virginia-based 5th District, which also includes Lynchburg, and high school teacher Schuyler VanValkenburg, a former State Delegate who narrowly lost reelection in 2023 and will now take on GOP incumbent Rob Wittman in the suburban Richmond-based 1st District, which stretches all the way to the state's Northern Neck and historic Williamsburg. While pundits have spoken well of the Democrats' "optimistic choices" in Virginia, many are also skeptical given that Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in generic balloting for the moment.

That matter, though, is not stopping Democrats from assembling a wide field of compelling candidates in marginal districts - part of a strategy to buffet the party against further losses in the 2024 election with the inflation-induced recession and resulting economic slog still holding the country at arms. In Maryland, where incumbent 3rd District Rep. John Sarbanes beat four other Democrats with over 60 percent of the vote to win his party's nomination and become the favorite to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin in the Senate seat once held for five terms by his father, the late Paul Sarbanes (whom Cardin succeeded in 2006), Democrats got their choice picks for the south suburban Baltimore-based 3rd (State Sen. Sarah Elfreth) as well as for the 2nd District of retiring Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger in north suburban Baltimore (Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski, popularly known as "Johnny O").

Republicans though will also be running strong candidates in both districts, with businesswoman and WBAL talk radio host Kim Klacik (known for her prominent appearance as a noted Black Republican congressional candidate during the 2020 Republican National Convention) setting up an epic millennial battle with Olszewski in the 2nd District, and baby boomer former Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh challenging the millennial Elfreth in the 3rd District. The same will also be true in the 6th District stretching from western Maryland out to the northern exurbs of Washington, D.C. in Frederick and Montgomery counties, where wealthy Democratic incumbent David Trone (who made his bank through the Total Wine retail chain) will face a rematch against his 2022 opponent, former State Del. Neil Parrott.

And in the heavily Democratic 5th District in southern Maryland, where former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is retiring after nearly 44 years, Charles County Commissioner Bobby Rucci, a restaurateur and real estate agent who runs a popular Italian deli in the district, defeated State Sen. and former Prince George's County Sheriff Michael A. Jackson and liberal former U.S. Rep. Donna Edwards in a hotly contested Democratic primary to succeed Hoyer. Rucci will be favored to win in November over attorney and former Maryland Republican Party Chairman Dirk Haire, who resigned from his longtime position with the party to run for this office despite the odds in a district Joe Biden won by a nearly 2-1 margin.

While a newer class of Democrats sought to move up or maintain their seats on Tuesday, longtime non-voting Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton received an early present for her 87th birthday on Thursday: yet another victory in the Democratic primary for her at-large seat in the District of Columbia on Tuesday night against two more progressive opponents who aggressively campaigned against the venerable Norton who won over 60 percent of the vote and is overwhelmingly favored for reelection over a token GOP opponent. It also wasn't the only notable race in a majority Black district on Tuesday, as Democrats in South Carolina's 6th District (based in Columbia, where longtime Democrat and former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is retiring) sent two former State Representatives to a runoff on June 25th: former Obama-era HHS executive Anton Gunn and current CNN political analyst Bakari Sellers, with the winner heavily favored to win in November. The runoff is expected to be very nasty with both accusing each other of "carpetbagging" into the district, as Gunn has accused Sellers of merely "commuting" from a house in Atlanta (where CNN is famously headquartered) while Sellers has accused Gunn of "commuting" from Washington, where he served in capacities under President Obama (as aforementioned).

Republicans in South Carolina also selected nominees for a runoff in two weeks from the neighboring 2nd District anchored in Columbia's suburbs, which will feature former Lieutenant Gov. André Bauer and Aiken-based State Sen. Tom Young Jr., who has called his rival a "carpetbagger" even though Bauer (who had recently resided in Myrtle Beach where his wife is from) grew up in the area and represented the area in the State House before being elected Lieutenant Governor in 2002. And in the 1st District based in Charleston and the surrounding Lowcountry, Republican incumbent Nancy Mace will face a rematch against pediatrician Annie Andrews after easily winning her Republican primary with over 70 percent - a sharp contrast from her close 2022 primary bid against an ally of Donald Trump, whose criticism by Mace put her in a row with the former President.

Voters in Nevada and Maine also set their highly-watched Senate races into stone for November. In the former, Republicans nominated Army veteran and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown who also ran for the GOP nomination in 2022 against the eventual winner, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who eventually went on to defeat then-incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto that year. Meanwhile, in the latter Rep. Chellie Pingree won over 50 percent of the vote over former U.S. Rep. Jared Golden with under 35 percent in the Democratic primary for the Senate seat of retiring independent Angus King. Both Senate seats are expected to be competitive with Brown challenging vulnerable first-term Democrat Jacky Rosen and Pingree facing off against State Sen. and former state GOP Chairman Rick Bennett; a victory by both Republicans would amount to GOP pickups as King caucuses with the Democrats.

Both states also nominated their congressional slates on Tuesday, with Nevada Democrats looking to avoid a sweep that imperiled them in 2022, nominating Medicare for All advocate Amy Vilela in the Las Vegas-to-Henderson-based 1st of freshman Republican Mark Robertson, Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve in the northern-based 2nd District against incumbent Rep. Mark Amodei (who is also the only non-freshman and only incumbent not representing Clark County in Congress), former U.S. Rep. Susie Lee looking to reclaim her old seat in the suburban Las Vegas-based 3rd District she lost in 2022 to incumbent Rep. April Becker, and State Senate President Mo Denis (whose cousin is Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio) challenging first-term Republican Sam Peters in the 4th District. Voters in Maine, meanwhile, nominated candidates for both of their congressional districts, with liberal former Portland Mayor Ethan Strimling winning the Democratic primary in Pingree's 1st District and favored to win against Republican nominee and former state GOP Chairwoman Demi Kouzounas, and State Senate President Troy Jackson nominated by Democrats in the northern and central-based 2nd District to take on incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin.

While the night was loaded with a number of notable races, North Dakota had arguably the easiest election cycle on Tuesday, as its top three Republican incumbents, Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. Kevin Cramer and Rep. Kelly Armstrong, easily won their primaries and will be heavily favored for reelection in November against largely unknown Dem-NPL nominees, a fact that is unsurprising given the state strongly voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and is considered safe for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

June 14, 2024
PORTER CONCEDES IN CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE; GRENELL, SCHIFF BATTLE OVER MAIL-IN BALLOTS AS SCHWARZENEGGER CHIMES IN
With nearly 95 percent of California's ballots from last week's Senate primary now in and the gap between herself and two fellow challengers growing, U.S. Rep. Katie Porter conceded defeat on Friday in the U.S. Senate race for the open seat of Sen. Dianne Feinstein. "After much consideration and with more of the ballots now showing ourselves at a greater disadvantage than previously, it is my regret to inform everyone that I am suspending my campaign for the U.S. Senate, and will be looking forward to seeing Congressman Adam Schiff prevail when the dust is settled", Porter proclaimed with stoic emotions in a press conference at her district office in Irvine. Porter also urged progressives to "not feel dejected by what is going here, for the focus remains on ensuring that our very own Kamala Harris becomes our first Madam President and for progressives everywhere to turn out and turn out big and bold for Democrats in November", while also stopping short of endorsing the Vice President (as Porter was an acolyte of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was Harris's closest challenger in the 2024 Democratic primaries.

As of Friday, the race between former Ambassador Ric Grenell and Schiff remained very close, with Grenell now having won 14.44 percent and Schiff 14.25 percent while Porter trailed with 13.23 percent; all three percentages declined as many of the results in the Central Valley (where most of the new votes have been counted) have favored House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (who now leads all candidates with 22.60 percent) and former Lieutenant Gov. Cruz Bustamante (whose tally has now grown to 9.79 percent). When asked by reporters if he is feeling the effects of "hate" by progressives over his mere presence on the ballot in a controversial race, the 71-year-old Bustamante responded with candor "You know, I've seen worse than this election and even a certain one involving Gray Davis, but I'm glad we ran a campaign that focused on the heart of the Democratic Party - the working men and women that I represented here in the Valley, and who are sad that we now have to choose between a used car salesman, a poor German tourist and a donor class elitist from Los Angeles who has never slept a night in the fields of our region". Bustamante ran in the 2003 special gubernatorial election in which Gov. Gray Davis was recalled from office, finishing second to the eventual winner, Republican actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Schwarzenegger, for his own part, gave a tacit endorsement to McCarthy ("Hopefully, Kevin McCarthy will be as good as he was before Donald Trump") in an interview with NBC News and called the Senate results "pure karma". "The Democrats in California were never really in it for her people, and instead gave us what California got...a homeless problem that is out of control, corporations running scared to Texas, a failure to prevent forest fires and hey we at least care about the environment, but even that is underwhelming", Schwarzenegger replied while also not divulging as to how he actually voted on Tuesday beyond merely preferring the House Speaker given Grenell's ties to Trump who he has disdain for. The Hollywood actor and former bodybuilder also had harsh words for the Democrats who ran ("They had a choice to roar like bears or cower like sissies, and they chose to be sissies fighting over who gets to drive Daddy's car") and even went as far as conflating the Democrats with the Donald ("Donald Trump was certainly the worst amongst Presidents, and you might as well throw the Democrats who ran last week in as well, because they were spoiled little babies who can't even play the worst game of T-ball").

Schiff, meanwhile, held a press conference on Friday in front of the Los Angeles County Recorder's office in Norwalk, where Schiff purported to "absentee ballots from senior citizens that have not yet been counted" and accused Grenell of cherry picking absentee ballots: "So it's OK if it's someone serving overseas in the military, but if it's a veteran or another retiree it doesn't matter? Good job, Richard, good job." In response, Grenell went on Sean Hannity's Fox News program Friday night, where Hannity condemned Schiff for being "anti-military" in criticizing Grenell: "I cannot think of anything more unpatriotic than having the gall to pit our active duty military against veterans - the absolute most repulsive thing any politician can do to those who serve, and Adam Schiff owes our military and veterans and their families an apology, something he obviously won't do while hobnobbing with elites who attack our men and women in uniform like Debra Messing and Jane Fonda". Grenell also expressed confidence that he will remain in second place when the counting is finished: "The votes that have come in have come from Schiff strongholds, and our numbers for where they remain are looking good".

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Before I continue, let me take some time to acknowledge the situation in New York with regards to congressional redistricting, since this state's congressional primaries are coming up real soon here in this TL (the real life primary for this year is next month). As this TL has evolved, so have the congressional seats in the Empire State. As you probably know by now, New York's initial new map was tossed out of court and a redrawn map had to be put in place. That map is going to remain in place for this TL and beyond, and unsurprisingly the map does not look good for Democrats in the 2022 midterms. So with that in mind, here is what I now predict will happen:

• Call me weirdo freako whatever, but in this current environment I now predict that Long Island will be swept by Republicans in a shocking upset. While I had last projected that Anthony Figliola would be the GOP nominee in the 1st District (basically all of northern and eastern Suffolk including the Hamptons), Nick LaLota appears to have the edge now. I am also now predicting that Andrew Garbarino will be favorably reelected in the 2nd District (SW Suffolk, SE Nassau), George Santos will indeed be elected from the 3rd District (northern Nassau and NE Queens), and Anthony D'Esposito will pull off a shocking upset over Democrat Laura Gillen in the 4th District (SW Nassau). Expect Democrats to put forth yet another "Dream Team" slate here on Long Island. I may overtly optimistic given I am a Republican, but it is currently just that bad for Democrats - any situation where 88 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track is a recipe for disaster!
• The delegation along the BQE is not going to change much either. However, in this TL Nydia Velázquez has already announced she is retiring, paving the way for State Sen. Julia Salazar to succeed her. And Nicole Malliotakis may or may not have a brand name challenger in this TL as well for her 11th District, but we shall see.
• As you probably already know by now, Mondaire Jones has said bye-bye to the suburbs and moved on down to Greenwich Village, where he is running in the 10th District. I'm going to say Jones will win it but I and many others could be wrong. 70s era Congresswoman Elizabeth Holtzman is running to party like Studio 54 again, and Comrade de Blasio has his fans, but those who relive AOC's rise to stardom may be quite bullish on "Carlina Rivera from the Lower East Side". Whichever Democrat wins here will be the incumbent in this TL.
• I'm also not certain about the 12th District outcome either, since both sides of Central Park are now in it and the old divisions that existed when S. William Green rued the day are long gone. I'm personally hopeful a Republican can get elected there one day again, but for now I'm betting Jerry Nadler wins over Carolyn Maloney, and there are even some who are bullish on Suraj Patel. But I'm betting on the Kennedy family returning to Congress through Jack Schlossberg in 2024, regardless of which Democrat wins this year.
• The Bronx is certainly not changing, and the only reason Alessandra Biaggi is running in the 17th District north of White Plains is so not to upset AOC since Jamaal Bowman is already running there. But will she really defeat alleged carpetbagger Sean Patrick Maloney?
• The saddest story in this election will be the Life and Times of Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan. My hunch is he will lose to his Dutchess County equivalent Marc Molinaro in the special election to succeed Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and the regular election to State Asm. Colin Schmitt at the same time. A sad way to waste an Iraq War veteran who served his country. If only Joe Biden didn't poop his pants in front of the Pope...
• Upstate New York is virtually unchanged, save for Nick Langworthy defeating Carl Paladino in the GOP primary for the new 23rd District because Chris Jacobs thinks young sailors and servicemen don't deserve to pack heat (not even counting Joe Sempolinski keeping Langworthy's seat warm in the old 23rd), as well as Brandon Williams defeating Francis Conole in the Syracuse-to-Utica 22nd District. John Katko really lucked out of an opportunity to chair Homeland Security after all...
• Last but not least in this TL Paul Tonko will have announced his retirement after eight terms, and his 20th District will certainly elect a Democrat as at D+14 his district is as partisan as Elise Stefanik's North Country-based 21st District. The mapmakers could have actually created two even-handed seats here, but I guess that's impossible since you can't really do that without cracking the Capital District (Albany, Schenectady and Troy).

Now, in this TL here's what really happened to the young woman for whom Mario Biaggi used to change her diapers and read her bedtime stories...

June 15, 2024
TRUMP STUMPS FOR CHAFFETZ IN UTAH; HILLARY, AOC ENDORSE DUELING SENATE CANDIDATES IN NEW YORK
Former President Donald Trump was in the Salt Lake City suburb of Sandy on Saturday night to stump for former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is running against incumbent Sen. Mitt Romney in the Republican primary. Romney drew fire from the former President for his votes to convict the former President in both of his impeachment trials, and the animosity has only grown as the campaign marched on with numerous ads accusing each other over various matters, some even involving the state of Massachusetts. Chaffetz has attacked Romney (who once served as Governor of Massachusetts as well as serving as President of the committee overseeing the 2002 Winter Olympics held in Salt Lake City) for "taking the politically correct side of the aisle on one too many occasions, while Utahns continue to sit in traffic and struggle to pay the bills", pointing to Romney's past votes on healthcare, gun control and other issues, and even singled out Romney for "introducing the world to Obamacare as Governor of Massachusetts". Trump piled on the criticism: "Name one piece of good policy, good government that Mitt Romney has supported. Name one. Just name one...(only hears chuckles)...I see, not a clue!".

Romney, meanwhile has retorted by pointing to Chaffetz's own naïveté during a campaign visit in Ogden earlier Saturday: "When you're so impressionable that you're only willing to go to bat if the outcome is absolutely perfect, because otherwise you'd just take Michael Dukakis's word for it, it's no wonder Jason Chaffetz never made real friends in the House, because you have to have friends to get legislation to the White House". Romney was joined at the Marriott Center on the campus of Brigham Young University in Provo by the area's congressman, Rep. John Curtis, who succeeded Chaffetz in Congress and praised Romney for his "tenacity in finding solutions from a conservative perspective that many of us share here in Utah". Chaffetz was a Democrat in his college years, having served as the Utah co-chair for the 1988 presidential campaign of Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis (whose wife Kitty was initially married to Chaffetz's father) before Chaffetz eventually became a Republican in 1990.

Meanwhile, the race for the U.S. Senate in New York drew interest from two brand names seeking to serve as "kingmaker" (or rather, "queenmaker") in the Democratic primary. Former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared in Brooklyn at a rally for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and were joined on stage by another former First Lady, Michelle Obama, who also joined Clinton in endorsing Gillibrand (who herself succeeded Clinton in 2009 following the latter's rise to become Secretary of State under President Barack Obama). Clinton remarked, "There is no finer servant, no greater Senator for the great state of New York and for our country than Kirsten Gillibrand, and it is important we reelect Kirsten to a third (full) term in the Senate". Gillibrand is running for her third full term, having served the remainder of Clinton's term from 2009 onward, and is best remembered for her outspoken pro-feminist 2020 presidential campaign as well as her consistent voting record against former President Trump's Cabinet appointees during his presidency.

But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was having none of it. In Albany, AOC served as the "Maid of Honor" at a campaign rally for Gillibrand's progressive challenger Jamaal Bowman, whom AOC referred to as "the King of the Squad" in introducing Bowman to a jubilant, comparatively youthful audience. Onstage, Bowman called Gillibrand "a corporate sellout who only is in it for herself at the expense of the American worker" and stressed the "need for a progressive knight to slay the demons that are holding Americans back". Bowman, a former educator, also stressed the need for federal education reform: "Whenever they tell us to give up more power to the states, let's remind them of how that worked out so well for America in the Civil War", referring to the "states' rights defense" often used by defenders of the Confederacy to justify slavery. Recent polls show Gillibrand with a double-digit lead in polls, though Bowman has pointed to internal polling that shows him "within striking distance" as well as appeals to more moderate Democrats on issues including deficit reduction and school choice.

Utah and New York will both hold their congressional primaries on June 25th, along with Colorado and Oklahoma as well as runoffs in Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi. Utah will also be hosting primaries for its gubernatorial election, with incumbent Republican Spencer Cox facing a primary challenge from state Attorney General Sean Reyes who initially sought to challenge Romney before Chaffetz ultimately decided to challenge him. While there exists a sizable base of Trump supporters in the traditionally heavily Republican state (where Latter-day Saints hold outsized influence in business, culture and politics), the state has not been as deferential to the former President compared to others, as indicated by Sen. Mike Lee's surprisingly close 2022 reelection against vocal Trump critic Evan McMullin (who ran as an independent with support from Democrats).

June 17, 2024
FBI, GEORGIA AUTHORITIES RAID CAMPAIGN OFFICES OF HOUSE CANDIDATE
On Monday, with early voting still ongoing for next week's runoff elections, authorities from the FBI and the Georgia Bureau of Investigation raided the offices of Clayton County Board of Commissioners President Jeff Turner on allegations of racketeering and embezzlement involving contracts awarded to vendors within the county that drew scrutiny following a series of investigations by Atlanta ABC affiliate WSB-TV, in which the station alleged that Turner used the privilege of his office to curry favor with vendors on road construction projects within the county, some of which have resulted in cost overruns totaling millions of dollars. The investigation was prompted as state Attorney General Chris Carr announced the results of an inquiry into whether or not Turner also funneled campaign donations to a nearby Fulton County prosecutor with the intent of avoiding felony corruption charges.

A spokesperson for Turner, one of two candidates in the runoff for the 13th congressional district of retiring Rep. David Scott, called the allegations a "witch hunt perpetrated by a TV station affiliated with far-right extremists like Erick Erickson and Sean Hannity who only serve to defame Democrats and anyone who criticizes Donald Trump" while also stressing that Turner is innocent and should be absolved of any wrongdoing. Cox Media Group, which owns WSB-TV as well as WSB radio (where Erickson's show is headquartered and which also carries the nationally syndicated talk show of Hannity, who was previously based in Atlanta before joining Fox News Channel in 1996) and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (aka "the AJC"), defended their reporting as "objective and to the point", and also took note of both the traditionally liberal leanings of the aforementioned AJC and the Democratic roots of the company's founding Cox family, which includes former Ohio Gov. and 1920 Democratic presidential nominee James M. Cox (who ironically lost to Republican Sen. Warren Harding, himself also a newspaperman from Ohio).

Following news of the raid, State Rep. Demetrius Douglas, who is Turner's opponent in next Tuesday's runoff for the south suburban Atlanta-based 13th District which includes Clayton County (and who was also endorsed by the AJC), defended the actions of WSB-TV in investigating Turner and confirmed that the campaign had "absolutely zero involvement in both the investigation and the raid". "The only thing we stressed with regards to the raid is the fact that these allegations were brought to light to us, and were extensively vetted and fact-checked by our campaign before we used them in our ads solely to highlight policy and style differences between myself and Jeff Turner", said Douglas. Douglas has also been endorsed by most members of the General Assembly from both the House and Senate (popularly referred to as "the Gold Dome"), and gained even further endorsements after the allegations broke last week.

June 18, 2024
AL SHARPTON CRITICIZES MEDIA OVER "UNFAIR TREATMENT" OF BLACK CANDIDATES
In response to series of high-profile controversies involving several congressional races of interest to Black voters in this cycle, MSNBC host and Rev. Al Sharpton took aim at his fellow members of the media during an interview on the liberal-leaning cable news network during The Last Word. In an interview with host Lawrence O'Donnell, former presidential candidate Sharpton (who also is the founder of the National Action Network) slammed the media for "pitting Black Americans against each other at the worst possible time, when you have Republicans intent on tearing apart our communities through racist and divisive policies pushed by Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, who are two peas in a pod...DeSantis especially being a special case given what he did to (former U.S. Rep.) Al Lawson in 2022", referencing the dismantling of Lawson's minority opportunity district in Florida's 2022 redistricting, which forced Lawson to compete in the 2nd District where he lost to Republican incumbent Neal Dunn.

The charges by Sharpton came in the wake of a series of high-profile races in minority opportunity and impact districts where Black voters make up either a plural majority or a sizable minority, and where leading candidates often made headlines more over controversies not explicitly tied to policy differences. Races singled out by Sharpton included the Illinois race for the 1st District in which the eventual winner, Rep. Jonathan Jackson (whose father is Sharpton's fellow civil rights activist and Rev. Jesse Jackson), was singled out by defeated challenger Kina Collins over the murder of one of her campaign staffers, the Mississippi race in the 2nd District (where candidate Chuck Espy called on his opponents to take a drug test including his runoff rival Jody Owens who had previously faced sexual harassment allegations, and the recent Georgia allegations against candidate Jeff Turner whose offices were raided by the FBI and local authorities on Monday. Sharpton also drew attention late last month for criticizing NBA legend Charles Barkley over his endorsement of State Sen. Kirk Hatcher in Alabama's newly redrawn 2nd District, where Hatcher is challenging Sharpton's endorsed candidate and constitutional law professor Bryan Fair in a July 2nd runoff also highlighted by Sharpton.

The following Wednesday evening, PragerU host and former liberal-turned-conservative activist Amala Ekpunobi responded to the allegations by Sharpton during Wednesday's broadcast of The Ingraham Angle on Fox News Channel, in which Ekpunobi was asked to weigh in on the charges by Sharpton that Black candidates are being unfairly treated. Ekpunobi responded by calling the allegations by Sharpton "flagrant identity politics that is more divisive than what he claims to push". "The Democratic Party has become all about one thing: dividing Americans based on their race, their income, their zip code, etc., etc. instead of actually promoting smart policy solutions that lift up Black communities, respect their deeply-held values and unite all Americans regardless of the color of their skin and strictly based on the content of their character, as Dr. Martin Luther King best put it", said Ekpunobi.

Republican presidential candidate Candace Owens, who still has not conceded her race for President weeks after the final presidential primaries, also chimed in during an interview with Ben Shapiro on The Daily Wire, "Al Sharpton is another failed relic from a time when Blacks were told the only game in town was the Democratic Party. As more and more African-Americans break away from the woke Democrat plantation, they will see the truth about many of these scandal-plagued, attention-seeking liberals who have actually betrayed their communities while their policies actually serve to the benefit of white liberals in New York and San Francisco who only pay lip service to minorities while voting against their values in office". Not mincing words, the Congressional Black Caucus Institute indicated on social media in response to Sharpton's allegations that "Democrats have worked hard to create a quality slate of great candidates, running alongside our ticket to history in Kamala Harris, who will fight for our communities in the most ethical and principled ways possible", and denounced Sharpton for "choosing to play the race card as the progress we have made over decades-long fights for justice teeters on the brink".

[SaintStan86]

June 20, 2024
AOC STUMPS FOR PROGRESSIVES IN NEW YORK; HUNTSMAN BACKS CHAFFETZ IN UTAH SENATE RACE
On Thursday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hosted a rally in Westchester County for several progressive Democrats, including U.S. Senate candidate and current Rep. Jamaal Bowman, in next Tuesday's congressional primaries across New York State. Among the headliners is former State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, who has been endorsed by AOC in her second try for a congressional seat after coming up short against fellow Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the neighboring 17th District in 2022. "We have a great opportunity to grow our ranks and recast the Democratic Party as a party of proven fighters for working people and working families, and if it can happen in Westchester, it can happen anywhere", Biaggi proclaimed to a thunderous audience. Biaggi and AOC were joined onstage by several other hard-left Democratic challengers including State Asm. Phil Steck in the open 20th District of retiring Democrat Paul Tonko, Rana Abdelhamid in the Manhattan-based 12th District of retiring longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler, and State Sen. Julia Salazar in the Brooklyn and Queens-based 7th District where Nydia Velázquez is retiring.

While all face competitive primaries in their districts, some of the candidates onstage are in fact considered the "leading candidate" while others are not. For example, in the 12th District most oddsmakers have their eyes on three-time candidate Suraj Patel (who unsuccessfully challenged now-former Rep. Carolyn Maloney in 2020 and 2022 and lost to Jerry Nadler) or Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg, the 31-year-old Yale and Harvard-educated grandson of former President John F. Kennedy who has attracted by far the most attention in both local and national media. And while Salazar and Biaggi are believed to be the leading contenders in their districts, Steck is in a deeply competitive primary for Tonko's open seat, which covers the core cities of the Capital District including the state capital of Albany, with Tonko having endorsed his longtime Colleen Williams; other Democrats running include Albany County Legislature Chairman Andrew Joyce, Albany County District Attorney David Soares and State Asm. Angelo Santabarbara, with two County Legislators, Albany County's Jennifer Whalen and Schenectady County's Brian McGarry, getting the most attention amongst Republican candidates. The race between Gillibrand and Bowman is widely viewed as the "real contest" in the Senate race for New York, as polls show Democrats largely favored to hold this seat over the winner of a Republican primary field that includes Ukrainian-born New York City Councilmember Inna Vernikov (one of five such Republicans in the Big Apple), exurban New York City State Sen. Mike Martucci (who led an unsuccessful effort to ban school mask mandates in New York State), and former Rochester Police Chief La'Ron Singletary (who ran a competitive race against Rochester-based Rep. Joe Morelle in 2022).

Meanwhile, clear across the country in Utah, fireworks were (somewhat) set off in the U.S. Senate race there between incumbent Mitt Romney and former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz. In a video released on YouTube, former Ambassador and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. endorsed Chaffetz in what some considered a surprise, as Huntsman had long been viewed as a "forward thinking, moderate-mannered Republican" in a similar vein to Romney. However, sources close to the former Governor have indicated the move as being of no great surprise, as Chaffetz served as the manager of Huntsman's 2004 gubernatorial victory and Huntsman and Romney have both been at loggerheads with one another over the years, dating back to when Romney was chosen over Huntsman to chair the Salt Lake Olympic Committee in 2002, despite both Mormon politicians being great-great-grandsons of the Mormon faith's iconic "Apostle Paul", Parley P. Pratt. Chaffetz touted the endorsement as "the surest sign of clear momentum towards our campaign on Tuesday", while Romney merely brushed off the news: "Of course, serving under Donald Trump means you kinda lose track of who you really are. I say to Jon 'You do you', I'm going to do what I've always done - put the people of Utah first before party!".

While the Republican primary for Governor is also expected to draw significant attention on Tuesday, with incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox (who is endorsed by both Romney and Huntsman as well as predecessor Gary Herbert) facing off against state Attorney General Sean Reyes (who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump and Sen. Mike Lee) in a race that has largely centered on the degree to which Cox had been willing to pursue election fraud claims made by Trump compared to Reyes who had pursued such claims vigorously, none of the state's four Republican members of Congress are in any danger either in the primary or in the general election.

June 22, 2024
LIZ CHENEY ENDORSES ROMNEY, BOEBERT CHALLENGER IN UPCOMING PRIMARIES; HARRIS STUMPS FOR DEMOCRATS IN SOUTHEAST
Just over 48 hours after former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz earned the endorsement of former Ambassador and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. in the state's U.S. Senate election, former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney made her endorsement clear in the same race by endorsing incumbent Sen. Mitt Romney. In endorsing the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, Cheney praised Romney as "a steadfast fighter for democracy who believes in people before party and selflessness before selfishness" and stressed the importance of "electing capable and courageous leaders who are willing to do what's right even if it means bucking your own party's leadership". In addition, the former Congresswoman and current CNN contributor (who lost her renomination bid in 2022 to fellow Republican Harriet Hageman) also tweeted her endorsement of retired former Colorado Mesa University President Tim Foster, who is running for the GOP nomination in Colorado's western and southern-based 3rd District that includes Grand Junction, Pueblo and the back counties of the state's Ski Country, with Cheney praising Foster's "dedication to serving the people of western Colorado who seek quality education to further enrich themselves and benefit their communities" as "proof that Foster will serve Coloradoans well".

The news unsurprisingly did not amuse the 3rd District's conservative incumbent, Rep. Lauren Boebert, who as expected dismissed Cheney's endorsement as "irrelevant" to the election, "Once again, you have a washed-up has-been in Liz Cheney trying to meddle into Colorado and Utah's races where Republicans are coming together and are fed up with career bureaucrats like Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney running the party into the ground. Their modus operandi has always been and always will be America Last, and this election will be the death knell of their shrunken political careers". In addition to Boebert's 3rd District, Democrats will also be targeting two marginal suburban Denver districts this year, with the 7th District expected to see a rematch between freshman Rep. Erik Aadland and former State Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the western suburbs anchored in Jefferson County and the 8th District (stretching from Denver's northern suburbs to exurban neighborhoods east of the traditionally liberal Boulder-Fort Collins corridor) expected to field a strong Democratic challenger to first-term Rep. Barb Kirkmeyer.

Saturday also saw Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris stroll through several southern runoff races, all but one of them to be decided on Tuesday. In Mississippi, Harris spoke at a fundraising brunch in Jackson on behalf of Hinds County District Attorney Jody Owens, who is running in the Democratic runoff for Mississippi's 2nd District and whose position is analogous to that held by Harris in San Francisco before her 2010 election as California Attorney General. "Just like I fought for fair justice in San Francisco, Jody Owens has done the same for the people of Jackson", Harris remarked while also criticizing Owens' rival, Chuck Espy, for "attempting to divide the people of the district for trivial reasons". Harris also attended a televised debate in Montgomery, Alabama later that day between 2nd District runoff candidates Bryan Fair and Kirk Hatcher, and ended the day at the suburban Atlanta residence of Sen. Jon Ossoff, where a fundraiser was held for congressional hopefuls James Beverly (Georgia's 2nd District), Demetrius Douglas (Georgia's 13th District) and Bakari Sellers (South Carolina's 6th District). When asked by a reporter outside the residence if her presence amounts to "meddling" in the primaries, Harris remarked "Certainly not, but I do think it helps to clarify which Democrats are most committed to fighting for the people in this election".

June 23, 2024
"AND THEN THERE WERE FOUR": DeSANTIS REPORTEDLY NARROWS VEEPSTAKES
During an interview with Fox News Sunday host Bret Baier, a spokesperson for Florida Gov. and presumptive Republican nominee Ron DeSantis let it be known regarding his thoughts on who his running mate for the November election will be. Comparing the selection process to "going on Love Connection", DeSantis spox Christina Pushaw confirmed to Baier that "Ron DeSantis is committed to picking a credible and committed running mate who will work to represent his voice both in complementing him and carrying out his duties in the Senate (where the Vice President serves as a tiebreaker vote in 50-50 situations)".

The news comes amid a reported leak that DeSantis had reportedly narrowed the search for his Vice President nominee down to four candidates: Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, and what some consider the "most obvious" choice, former Ambassador Nikki Haley. When asked by Baier as to why former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin aren't on the list, Pushaw noted "they are both very fine servants, and I think they still have a shot to be his running mate", and also remarked that both men would also be "runaway favorites" for Cabinet positions in a potential DeSantis administration. One source, however, reacted to the alleged snub of Pompeo by quipping that "DeSantis obviously knows that real Italians wouldn't be wasting their time chowing down a Pan Pizza from Pizza Hut, unless Mike Pompeo makes him an offer he can't refuse", referring to the iconic dish at the global pizza chain founded in Pompeo's hometown of Wichita (where the structure of the first Pizza Hut sits less than a mile from where Pompeo launched his 2024 presidential bid at Wichita State University) as well as a famous quote from The Godfather.

Apparently unamused by the news, DeSantis's campaign office responded by placing a large order of Pan Pizzas to their campaign headquarters in Jacksonville, Florida - with news of the massive campaign order (including a picture with a box labeled "Ron's Favorite", containing a Pan Pizza with the sort of toppings DeSantis prefers on his pizza). DeSantis also remarked to reporters by remarking the franchisee of the Pizza Hut his campaign bought the pizzas from: "I don't usually buy from Pizza Hut, but when I do I buy it from a local franchisee who's also a veteran, because they and first responders are always the best franchisees". Such a move is not unprecedented in the 2024 campaign, as Democratic former Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed a large order from Domino's to "settle a score" following a spat with the rival pizza chain over his campaign's ripping off of a famous 1990s marketing slogan for the pizza chain, one based off a famous song from the band Queen.


TIMELINE UPDATE: One race I apparently forgot in all the hoopla surrounding the last few presidential primaries was the gubernatorial race in West Virginia where Republican Jim Justice is term limited. The Republican nominee in this TL is wealthy auto dealer Chris Miller (whose mother is U.S. Rep. Carol Miller), while the Democratic nominee is marketing firm owner and former television news anchor Erik Wells, a former State Senator who entered the race after several other Democrats including his wife, former Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, decided against entering the open gubernatorial race. Of course, given I was completely out of room when posting about West Virginia, here is what the headline would have read:

From May 14, 2024...
Voters in West Virginia also decided on their nominees for Governor to succeed term-limited incumbent Jim Justice, who was initially elected as a Democrat in 2016 but has since become a Republican. In the Republican primary, wealthy auto dealer Chris Miller, whose family runs the Dutch Miller auto dealership chain and is the son of U.S. Rep. Carol Miller, largely outpaced his rivals with over 55 percent of the vote, benefiting from an outsized ad campaign that included a number of ads taking potshots at the Biden administration and perceived claims regarding West Virginians from "out-of-towners who have never seen our wild, wonderful state". Miller will now take on former State Sen. Erik Wells, a former television news anchor-turned-marketing firm owner whose wife, former Secretary of State and 2014 U.S. Senate nominee Natalie Tennant, chose to pass on the race paving the way for Wells to run his own race. Wells won more than 40 percent of the vote, but enough to overcome three other challengers with more progressive bonafides.

[SaintStan86]

The polls have closed in New York and the results are in the South. Lessgo, lessgo, lessgo!...

June 25, 2024
GILLIBRAND BEATS BOWMAN IN NEW YORK AS PROGRESSIVES PREVAIL IN HOUSE RACES
On Tuesday night, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand turned back a vigorous primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, as the two-and-a-half term Democrat (who was originally appointed to the seat after Hillary Clinton was appointed to be Barack Obama's first Secretary of State) prevailed in the Democratic primary with over 55 percent of the vote including a dominant performance in Upstate New York, parts of which she represented in Congress for one full term and part of a second. "Tonight, New Yorkers have made it clear who they would like to see serving them in the Senate. Between a proven progressive fighter who is the leading champion for women's rights in America and an agitator who'd rather pick fights with fellow Democrats, Democrats chose unity and equality." Gillibrand, an outspoken feminist who made women's rights a big part of her longshot 2020 Democratic presidential race, won as much as 70 percent in several upstate counties and also carried the day with suburban voters, blue-collar workers and older whites, with Long Island, the Capital District, the Southern Tier and Western New York outside of Buffalo and Rochester amongst her strongest performing areas. Bowman, despite winning the Bronx and tying Gillibrand in New York City, struggled to compete throughout the state despite an aggressive push from Our Revolution and other progressive Democratic groups. Gillibrand will now be heavily favored to win a third full term in November against the Republican nominee, conservative State Sen. Mike Martucci.

While Bowman may not have been successful as a Senate candidate, progressives otherwise had a good night at the House level. In the 7th District where longtime Democrat Nydia Velázquez is retiring, hard-left State Sen. Julia Salazar won over 40 percent of the vote to become the Democratic nominee for the heavily Democratic, majority Hispanic district straddling Brooklyn and Queens, with the self-described Democratic Socialist, first elected in the wave of the 2018 progressive uprising following then-candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 congressional triumph in the nearby 14th District, all but assured victory in November despite not being endorsed by Velázquez herself. Another acolyte of AOC who rose in the 2018 election cycle, former State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, also won her primary on Tuesday in the 16th District anchored in Westchester County, two years removed from her primary defeat against then-DCCC Chairman and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. And in the Albany-based 20th District, a unified progressive show of strength in a crowded field benefited State Asm. Phil Steck, who while at age 62 is considerably older than his more youthful Downstate counterparts, was also favored by the same younger-skewing progressives and helped Steck to beat back more moderate and establishment competition in his Democratic primary, finishing five percentage points ahead of Albany County District Attorney David Soares with 29 percent of the vote; Steck will now be favored to defeat Schenectady County Legislator Brian McGarry in November.

Not every victory on Tuesday was one for progressives to savor. In the Manhattan-based 12th District, family ties and an endorsement by every major New York City newspaper worked to the benefit of Jack Schlossberg, whose victory in the Democratic primary with over 50 percent of the vote will guarantee him election to the House in November (where he will succeed longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler), returning the Kennedy political dynasty to Washington as the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy (and son of JFK's daughter, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg) is already drawing attention as a "rising star" in the Democratic Party as well as comparisons to his late uncle, John F. Kennedy, Jr.. And despite rumors of being vulnerable to primary challenges from the left, Maloney prevailed in his suburban Hudson Valley 17th District and will now face a rematch against one-term former State Asm. Mike Lawler, who narrowly lost to Maloney in 2022. Democrats also largely nominated more established Democrats further upstate, nominating Dutchess County Legislator Yvette Valdés Smith to take on first-term Republican Rep. Colin Schmitt in the exurban New York City-based 18th District (centered largely on Orange and Dutchess counties in the Hudson Valley), Broome County Executive Jason Garnar in the 19th District of Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro (whose district stretches from the northern fringes of the Hudson Valley westward to Binghamton), and former State Sen. and State Public Service Commissioner David Valesky in the Syracuse-to-Utica-based 22nd District of first-term Republican Brandon Williams.

On Long Island, Democrats also nominated their own "Dream Team" of candidates in districts covering Nassau and Suffolk counties. In the 1st District across northern and eastern Suffolk County, the party nominated Suffolk County Legislator Kara Hahn to take on first-term Republican Nick LaLota, while in the South Shore-based 2nd District of Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino connecting southwest Suffolk and southeast Nassau counties, the Democrats will field State Asw. Kimberly Jean-Pierre. In Nassau County, former North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jon Kaiman, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for the northern Nassau-based 3rd District in 2022, won it this time and will take on Republican Rep. George Santos in a North Shore district that extends westward into northeastern parts of Queens such as Bayside and Douglaston. And in the 4th District in southwest Nassau County, Nassau County Legislature Minority Leader Kevan Abrahams emerged out of a crowded Democratic field to earn his party's nomination against surprise 2022 winner Anthony D'Esposito, considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the nation. They will be joined on the ballot by 11-term State Asm. and Richmond County Democratic Committee Chairman Michael Cusick, who will be challenging sophomore Republican Nicole Malliotakis in the Staten Island-based 11th District that extends to a southwest corner of Brooklyn.

June 25, 2024
ROMNEY NARROWLY DEFEATS CHAFFETZ IN SENATE SHOWDOWN; COLORADO DEMS, OKLAHOMA GOP SELECT NOMINEES
After months of contentious debates and back-and-forth advertising battles, U.S. Sen. and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney prevailed in a close contest for renomination for his Senate seat in Utah. With over 90 percent of ballots counted, Romney won 55 percent of the vote to 45 percent for former U.S. Rep. and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz, with Romney's strongest base of support coming from the Salt Lake City suburbs and in southern Utah where he regularly ran upwards of 60 percent of the vote, but usually no higher than that. While Chaffetz managed to be competitive across the state and won up to 65 percent in northern Utah, on top of also winning the endorsement of former Gov. and Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (who shares a great-great-grandfather with Romney), Romney's campaign organization was more sophisticated while Chaffetz faced relentless questions over his past as a Democrat in his youth, as well as his having "spent more time in New York City than in Salt Lake City" recently. While Romney nonetheless faced intense backlash from Republican voters over his vote to convict Donald Trump in both of his impeachment trials, Chaffetz also took similar heat (though not as furious) over his past criticism of the former President that eventually morphed into "unwavering loyalty". Ultimately in the end, Romney's incumbency advantage and "independent streak" won out with voters.

Speaking before a packed audience in Salt Lake City, Romney thanked the voters for "putting your trust in me in renominating me to be your U.S. Senator for another six years" and continued with an ode to presumptive Republican nominee Ron DeSantis: "I am looking forward to working with Gov. Ron DeSantis when he gets to the White House, and together we are going to do great things for the people of Utah!". Chaffetz, meanwhile thanked his supporters at his watch party in Provo, and willingly endorsed Romney, "It's not the outcome we wanted, but we must now come together with Mitt Romney to preserve the Senate, save America, and elect Ron DeSantis to the White House - because the alternative (a Kamala Harris presidency) is downright scary". Romney will now face former Salt Lake City Council Member Shireen Ghorbani, who won the Democratic nomination, in November.

Utah's Republican establishment, viewed as arguably less deferential to former President Trump given his own middling support amongst fellow Republicans over his campaign rhetoric and governing style - which even played a hand in the surprisingly close reelection of conservative Sen. Mike Lee in 2022 (when Lee defeated 2016 independent presidential candidate and Democrat-backed former CIA officer Evan McMullin), also prevailed in the end on Tuesday as incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox won the Republican primary over state Attorney General Sean Reyes, a Trump loyalist and outspoken supporter of the former President's election fraud allegations who also attacked Cox as "too woke for the Republican Party" and "worse than a groomer". In the primary, Cox won 62 percent of the vote to Reyes' 38 percent, with the latter not gaining much support outside of the same people who largely backed Chaffetz. Cox will be heavily favored in November against Democratic physician and former State Rep. Suzanne Harrison. All of the state's four members of Congress - all Republicans - won their primaries by comfortable margins as well.

Meanwhile, in Colorado candidates were also decided for various congressional races, primarily marginal Republican districts as well as a pair of open seats. In Colorado, Democrats nominated candidates in three vulnerable Republican seats, with the easiest call also happening to be the most vulnerable - that of the 7th District in Denver's western suburbs anchored in Jefferson County, where former State Sen. Brittany Pettersen will enter a rematch against the Republican she lost to in 2022, conservative freshman Rep. Erik Aadland. Other victorious nominees were State Sen. Faith Winter in the north suburban Denver-based 8th District (which extends as far north as Greeley) against first-term Rep. Barb Kirkmeyer, and former State Senate President and DoD official Leroy Garcia in the Grand Junction and Pueblo-based 3rd District of controversial Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who easily turned back a primary challenge from former Colorado Mesa University President Tim Foster on Tuesday. Democrats also nominated Denver City Council member Candi CdeBaca, an avowed Democratic Socialist, in the 1st District of retiring Democrat Diana DeGette which covers all but a small portion of Denver, while Republicans nominated former Olympian and El Paso County Republican Party Chairman Eli Bremer, two years removed from being controversially snubbed for the U.S. Senate nomination at the Colorado GOP convention, as the Republican nominee in the Colorado Springs-based 5th District where longtime Rep. Doug Lamborn is retiring.

Voters in Oklahoma also selected nominees for two open seats in the western and southern parts of the state, but unlike Colorado these races will go to runoffs. In the 3rd District, which covers much of northern and western Oklahoma, including Anadarko, Ponca City and Woodward but also extends into a southern sliver of Oklahoma City, State House Majority Floor Leader Jon Echols will advance to a runoff on August 27th against Grace Enmeier, the District Director of retiring longtime Republican Rep. Frank Lucas; the winner of this runoff will be a heavy favorite against former State Sen. Tom Ivester, who won the Democratic primary with over 55 percent of the vote, in November. In the nearby 4th District of retiring Republican Tom Cole, former State House Speaker and two-time Senate candidate T.W. Shannon, who ran two spirited bids in 2014 and 2022 against Sens. James Lankford and Markwayne Mullin, respectively, won over 40 percent of the vote and will head to a runoff against State Sen. Rob Standridge; the winner will get former State House Minority Leader Emily Virgin in November, but as with the 3rd District the winner of next August's runoff is also a heavy favorite to win.

June 25, 2024
DEMOCRATS NOMINATE VICTORS IN SOUTHERN BLACK BELT RUNOFFS
Democrats decided their nominees for a number of Black majority districts in the South on Tuesday, as the party has been roiled by controversy in the wake of Rev. Al Sharpton's controversial statements regarding the unfair treatment of Black candidates by the media. The earliest call of the night came in Georgia, where State Rep. Demetrius Douglas ending up having an easy runoff victory after his opponent, Clayton County Board of Commissioners President Jeff Turner, became ensnared in an FBI corruption sting that Turner alleges had been perpetrated by the media as well as Douglas's campaign. Douglas won over 60 percent of the vote to Turner's 40 percent and will now be a prohibitive favorite to win in November. Georgia Democrats also decided their nominee in the southwest-based 2nd District connecting Albany, Columbus, Macon and Thomasville; State House Minority Leader James Beverly defeated former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson on the backs of endorsements from Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Jon Ossoff, winning 55 percent of the vote, and will now take on first-term Republican Chris West who is a top target of the DCCC.

While Harris and Ossoff played the role of spoiler in the Georgia runoffs, the same could not be true for the race in Mississippi. In the western-based 2nd District connecting the state capital of Jackson to the Delta region, Clarksdale Mayor Chuck Espy prevailed in Tuesday's runoff with 53 percent of the vote, outpacing Hinds County District Attorney Jody Owens in a controversial race in which Espy drew national attention for imploring that his opponents take a drug test, a tactic that drew controversy and criticism that led Owens to call his opponent an "Uncle Tom". However, Owens was only able to win more than 55 percent in his home county of Hinds (home to Jackson), while Espy won most of the other counties in the district, some by more than 70 percent, and won 57 percent in the runoff.

In South Carolina, Anton Gunn won a battle of former Democratic State Representatives in the majority Black 6th District connecting Columbia, Charleston and several other Black majority counties and precincts in the Midlands region of the state. Gunn took home 55 percent to 45 percent for his opponent, current CNN political analyst Bakari Sellers, who faced criticism for allegedly "commuting from his home in Atlanta to campaign in the district", per an attack ad by Gunn's campaign. However, Gunn drew praise from several former Obama-era staffers for his role in shepherding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, which according to exit polling drew a credible contrast from the perception that Sellers was merely a "social climber". Despite the back-and-forth campaigning and advertising wars, Sellers threw his support to Gunn after conceding to his opponent earlier in the night and urged Democrats to "unite to flip South Carolina blue for Kamala Harris in November...together we will do great things!" Gunn will now be the favorite to succeed retiring former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the only person to have ever held the 6th District in its current form dating to its relocation from the Myrtle Beach area in 1992.

The Democratic runoff in the 6th District was not the only notable contest of the night in the Palmetto State, as Republicans in the suburban Columbia and Aiken-based 2nd District also nominated their candidate for November to replace retiring incumbent Joe Wilson. In that runoff, former Lieutenant Gov. André Bauer won 62 percent of the vote to win the Republican nomination in Tuesday's runoff, besting Aiken-based State Sen. Tom Young Jr. in a race where Bauer's roots in the dominant suburban portion of the district overcame criticism of carpetbagging stemming from when he recently moved back to the area from Myrtle Beach (where his wife is originally from). Young, to his own credit, won over 60 percent of the vote in Aiken County where he resides. While Democrats do have a credible candidate on the ballot here in November, Bauer is a heavy favorite to win in November. Tuesday's runoffs are not the last remaining such contests this year, as Alabama voters will be going to runoffs next week to decide their nominees as well as in North Carolina later in July and Oklahoma late next August. Other than July's runoffs, there won't be any House elections until next August.

[SaintStan86]

June 28, 2024
GREENE SWITCHES TO CONSTITUTION PARTY DESPITE NOT BEING SELECTED AS RUNNING MATE
On Friday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene surprised many political observers in Georgia and across the country by announcing that she will be switching to the Constitution Party. In announcing her decision, MTG cited "pessimism" about whether or not the incoming leadership of prospective House Speaker Steve Scalise or even a potential DeSantis administration would be capable of "prioritizing America First priorities in office". Greene, who will continue to caucus with the GOP conference, also reaffirmed her commitment to "America First principles", and argued that a selection of any potential running mate other than Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri could be "calamitous" for working-class voters. "The other three being considered (ironically, all of them women) would be a grave insult to patriots who worked hard to elect Republicans and give them their majority, just like what happened with John Boehner and Paul Ryan, and now Kevin McCarthy who proceeded to screw over the populist majority to the benefit of elitists who acted more like (now former U.S. Rep.) Liz Cheney than (former House Speaker and fellow Georgian) Newt Gingrich".

McCarthy, who is still awaiting word on who his potential opponent will be in his U.S. Senate race in California, dismissed MTG's arguments as "just talk", and pointed to several victories under divided rule. "As Speaker, Congress has worked to give the most lame-duck administration in American history a much-needed check on its vices, and with probing investigations, the brakes being slammed on the radical Biden-Harris leftist puppet government, and real action on reining in our out of control national debt and pandemic of wokeism run amok, Republicans are delivering results for the American people", noted McCarthy. McCarthy also denied that MTG has been sidetracked: "We have literally rolled out the red carpet for her, and while we do appreciate her continuing to serve in our conference, her actions shall serve as a reminder that in a nation built around a two-party system, history is filled with prime examples of fleeting political movements that go nowhere", predicting that Greene will eventually reconsider her decision to switch to a third party.

MTG's move to switch to the Constitution Party, while making her the first-ever member of that party to serve in Congress (as well as the second former Republican to make such a move, after Michigan's Justin Amash flipped to the Libertarian Party in 2020), also takes place despite the national Constitution Party having chose to move on from her days after she won a second term in Georgia's 14th District, based in northwest Georgia and the northwestern fringes of Metro Atlanta. Shortly after securing the party's nomination, Lindell nominated attorney Jenna Ellis - a staunch supporter of Lindell's who previously served on the legal team for Trump's 2020 election fraud crusade - to be his running mate. The Lindell-Ellis ticket, already being viewed as a "spoiler bid" by some in the media, has already obtained ballot access in all 50 states. Republicans both locally and nationally have warned their supporters against even flirting at the possibility of supporting Lindell, with RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel reiterating, "As Republicans, we are committed to restoring the legacy that Donald Trump handed over to Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis will be our nominee, and we are going to work to elect Ron DeSantis to the White House, no questions asked".

While Greene will now be on the ballot as a Constitution Party member, some Republicans are exploring the possibility of selecting a replacement nominee for Greene on the ballot, even to the point of suspending some party and state election by-laws to achieve that goal. Such a scenario would be highly unlikely to affect Greene's reelection or even the possibility of Democrats winning her overwhelmingly Republican district - Republicans have routinely outnumbered Democrats by a 4-1 margin in recent elections both before Donald Trump's presidential campaign launch in 2015 and after his departure from office.

June 30, 2024
HUNTER BIDEN ARRESTED IN CHINA FOR SMUGGLED GUNS, THEN RELEASED; JORDAN PROBES INVESTIGATION INTO PRESIDENT'S SON
On Sunday, Hunter Biden was released from a Chinese prison hours after being detained in the Communist nation for carrying illegal weapons into a Shanghai hotel. According to state-run media, the son of President Biden reportedly had been in the country on "official business" relating to his political consulting work on behalf of defense contractors representing foreign entities. China has some of the strictest gun control measures in the world, with firearms ownership largely limited to non-civilian entities and registered hunters. One source indicated that Biden managed to avoid potential criminal penalties, including jail time, after United States prosecutors issued an "acceptable amount of financial compensation" in exchange for the younger Biden being released from Chinese custody.

This has prompted an investigation by House Judiciary Committee Chairman and Republican U.S. Senate nominee Jim Jordan, who called the release of the president's son under "questionable financial circumstances" grounds for potential treaty violations, and even predicted that Democrats would be lax to respond in the way the then-majority did with regards to a similar situation. "I'd like to know if there's anybody in this room who clamored to have Brittney Griner released that would agree to investigate Hunter Biden under similar conditions", Jordan remarked during an interview with Tucker Carlson on the latter's Fox News program, Tucker Carlson Tonight before admitting "all I hear is crickets from the other side". Speaking about the matter on MSNBC, the committee's Ranking Member, outgoing Rep. Jerry Nadler, was less than enthused: "There is no basis for investigating the private matters of the president's son and what he did in China, especially since the grounds for releasing him did not involved classified information", while also reiterating that "what happened to Brittney Griner - who is now back in America where she belongs - was a much more serious concern". Nadler also dismissed his Republican counterpart's move as "merely a cheap attempt to score political points against a proven progressive like Sherrod Brown who has put Ohioans first ahead of party".

WNBA star Brittney Griner, who was released from a Russian prison late in 2022 after the Biden administration made a series of compensatory agreements to get her back to the U.S., had been incarcerated in Russia in 2022 during the height of the Russian conflict with Ukraine on possession of vape cartridges containing CBD oil, which constitutes an illegal substance in Russia. Griner's release had stirred controversy within conservative circles who cited disenchantment with her outspoken support for kneeling during the national anthem - a point of sour grapes amongst Republicans dating back to 2016 when another professional athlete, NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick, initially chose to sit during the national anthem in protest of police brutality against minorities before eventually choosing to kneel during the anthem thereafter.

June 30, 2024
DUELING ADS DEFINE SENATE BATTLES IN MISSOURI, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA
With control of the Senate clearly in the balance and Democrats only needing three seats to gain back control of the chamber, the stakes could not be much higher for candidates in upcoming primaries between Democrats seeking to regain control (or at least gain an advantage under a Democratic President with just two seats for split control) and Republicans looking to gain a "filibuster-proof" majority in the Senate with 60 or more seats - a real possibility given that Democrats hold a lopsided 23-10 advantage in the Class I delegation currently up in 2024.

In Missouri, the Republican primary between incumbent Sen. Josh Hawley and his challenger, Rep. Ann Wagner from the suburban St. Louis-based 2nd District, has devolved into a litany of defensive attacks against each other. Wagner, who has appealed her campaign to suburban moderates in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas as well as conservatives "disenchanted with the 'big government conservatism' Hawley stands for" per Wagner's words, slammed Hawley for increasing the size of the national debt through his support for COVID relief measures during the height of the pandemic late in 2020 and "stoking the flames of division from elections to the actions of corporations who don't even do business with Missouri", pointing to Disney in the case of the latter. Wagner also has touted ads pointing to the nature of Hawley's residency within the state, as Hawley has registered his voting address at his sister's house in a suburb of Springfield: "If you're not going to even maintain residency within Missouri, how can you be trusted to serve the people of Missouri effectively and on their level?". Hawley has fired back at Wagner's criticisms, pointing to Wagner's own concerns regarding the aforementioned "culture war" matters addressed by her as well as recent votes Wagner took in favor of subsidies for pharmaceutical companies without reforms. "Before Mrs. Wagner makes any feeble attempt to criticize my record on taxes and spending, she may want to look at her own record of voting for corporate welfare for companies like Monsanto who routinely push policies that negatively affect the health of all Missourians", Hawley remarked in a recent debate hosted by CBS stations KCTV in Kansas City and KMOV in St. Louis.

One of the more interesting ads was one commissioned by Hawley's campaign, in which supporters of Hawley remarked about the Senator's "strong conservative convictions", "respect for the American way of living", "commitment to job security for all Missourians" and perhaps the most memorable quip "If you really think about it, Josh Hawley has made my business and my family richer WITHOUT free stuff". The common tie-in with these supporters (confirmed to be actual Missouri voters both by Hawley's campaign and independent fact-checkers) was that all of these voters were members of elite St. Louis country clubs portrayed in the ad, all wore clothing from such preppy and golf-oriented brands as Vineyard Vines, Brooks Brothers, Lilly Pulitzer and Travis Mathew, and all were actual Hawley supporters that came from diverse economic backgrounds - one such voter portrayed was an assembly line manager at the General Motors assembly plant in suburban Wentzville, Missouri, while another remarked "If you really think about it, Josh Hawley has done more to benefit my company and my employees than any failed subsidy has ever done". The ad's portrayal of such "elitist" voters was reportedly done to counter assertions by Wagner's camp that Hawley supporters were "trailer park trash" from the state's rural "Miz-zour-rah" heartland. Overall, Hawley maintains a sizable lead in polling as well as endorsements from Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, though Wagner's polling deficit has been cut in half to around 12 points compared to last month.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota the DFL primary is shaping up to be a brutal battle of "which candidate is the most progressive?", with the most moderate of the top three candidates, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips from the suburban Lake Minnetonka-based 3rd District west of Minneapolis, being the prime target of local and national progressives. Both of Phillips' chief rivals, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and former three-term state Attorney General Lori Swanson, have blasted Phillips in television ads and debates for "attempting to buy his way into the Senate" - a charge that Phillips has vehemently denied. In more recent ads, Phillips has played up a carefree, soft spoken image while also pledging to "go far in preserving Minnesota's proud progressive tradition - fighting for Medicare for All, a Green New Deal that will bring thousands of good-paying jobs to Minnesotans, and preserving Social Security for future generations to come". Still, Phillips remains mired in third place in a race where reliance on moderate suburban voters across the Twin Cities is key to his chances; Flanagan has been endorsed by Our Revolution and other major progressive groups, while Swanson is backed by much of the DFL establishment in the state. Nonetheless, the race is still a three-way battle with Phillips trailing a very close third at 18 percent to Flanagan's 23 percent and Swanson's 20 percent, with another 25 percent of voters remaining undecided. (The likely Republican nominee, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, holds a comfortable lead as well as a first-place convention finish for her party's nomination.)

The most brutal Senate battle, however, involves both sides in the state of Arizona. The Democratic incumbent, moderate Kyrsten Sinema, has been plagued by intense attacks from progressives who have portrayed the first-term Senator as an "apostate" and a "backstabber" due to her unequivocal support for the filibuster and other longstanding Senate rules viewed with hostility by hard-left members of her own party. Her challenger, Phoenix-based Rep. Ruben Gallego, recently was the subject of a rally in the state capital with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others who told the audience "Anyone who tells us to be civil and polite and not cause trouble can **** off!" to loud cheers among the guests backing the progressive Congressman. However, The Arizona Republic gave Sinema an enthusiastic endorsement, citing "Kyrsten Sinema represents the true embodiment of democracy in action, where the common good outweighs partisan extremists dwelling in echo chambers where misery and rank submission are the only company", and Sinema has also gained endorsements from fellow Sen. Mark Kelly, Gov. Katie Hobbs and even Meghan McCain, the daughter of the late Sen. John McCain. "Just like the Republicans wasted no time smearing my father and causing my mother to not recognize her own party anymore, Democrats are doing the same to Kyrsten Sinema, and that my friend is bad for democracy and for our own perilous discourse, which is why I encourage my Democrat friends to please kindly vote for Kyrsten Sinema, and do it for my dad", the younger McCain implored in an editorial for the conservative online magazine The Federalist (whose publisher is her husband, Ben Domenech).

Meanwhile, the Republican side (as expected) has devolved into a battle of "which candidate is the most conservative?" with many of the same Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis loyalty tests applying to the GOP field. Three of the leading candidates - U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and David Schweikert - have descended into their own chaotic ad wars on the radio and on TV, bleeding into everything from primetime and Fox News programs to Diamondbacks games and reality shows to soap operas, daytime talk shows and even in between overnight infomercials. Gosar even drew an attack line from Schweikert for advertising during daytime talk shows hosted by Karamo Brown, Steve Wilkos and Kelly Clarkson; "The last thing we need with so much at stake is a Senator who feels free to insert his ads in between paternity tests and interviews with RuPaul", remarked Schweikert referring to Gosar in a recent debate with The Arizona Republic and Phoenix NBC affiliate KPNX. Gosar responded by referring to Trump: "Well Donald Trump always got along with celebrities - you just don't see it because the media has deep seated hatred for anyone with an R next to their name. You have to go to the culture to win, not box yourself in like some pious Republicans like Ted Cruz (who has endorsed Schweikert) do". Unlike with the Democratic primary, the traditionally center-right Republic (who had routinely endorsed Republican presidential nominees until it backed Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden over Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively) has chosen not to issue an endorsement, with the paper's editorial board writing: "It is our hope that whichever Republican comes out of this brutal, closely watched and deeply divisive slugfest pivots to the general election once the dust settles back into the deserts of the Valley, because otherwise it's not going to be a pretty sunset".

While all these developments are ongoing in the run up to next month and the counting for a razor-thin battle in California reaches the homestretch, there is a set of runoff elections to talk about in the Heart of Dixie...

July 2, 2024
VICTORS DECLARED IN ALABAMA RUNOFFS
On Tuesday, voters went to polls to decide on nominees for three of Alabama's seven congressional seats, including a contentious Democratic primary for a district redrawn to slightly favor their party in a mid-decade redistricting. In the 2nd District stretching from the state capital of Montgomery to majority Black north Mobile and Tuskegee, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher prevailed with over 60 percent of the vote in a contentious runoff where he won support from much of the state's Democratic establishment as well as NBA Hall of Famer and Auburn basketball legend Charles Barkley. Hatcher also reportedly gained the endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, who touted Hatcher as "a rising star in the Democratic Party who will serve the people of south Alabama well", as Hatcher sought to use his experience as an advantage over his more progressive rival, constitutional law professor and Southern Poverty Law Center board chair Bryan Fair, who had endorsements from major progressive activists including several with ties to the Black Lives Matter movement. Hatcher will now go on to face retired former U.S. Attorney Louis Franklin, a retired longtime federal prosecutor who served under former President Donald Trump and decided to enter the GOP primary that he eventually won with over 50 percent of the vote last month.

Meanwhile, strong loyalty to Trump and an overall conservative voting record wasn't enough for two-term Republican Barry Moore to overcome his fellow Republican Rep., Jerry Carl, in the runoff for the suburban Mobile and Dothan-based 1st District, now evenly divided between the district's traditional base in Carl's hometown of Mobile and Moore's primary turf in the Wiregrass region of southeastern Alabama around Dothan. In the runoff, Carl won over 55 percent of the vote to Moore's 45 percent, with both candidates performing best in their respective home turfs. While the primary was a fierce slugfest where Moore has since willingly endorsed Carl after conceding on Tuesday night, the general election is expected to be a snoozefest as the district is heavily Republican, and in fact even more so than before with the heavily Democratic, majority Black north side of Mobile now moved into Moore's old 2nd District.

Lastly, an endorsement by former candidate and U.S. Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard, combined with strong support in the areas of the district closer to her old stomping grounds in the Anniston area east of Birmingham, was enough to power Republican nonprofit executive and conservative activist Jessica Taylor to a primary victory in the eastern-based 3rd District (connecting Montgomery's northern suburbs to much of eastern Alabama) over State Rep. Joe Lovvorn, who did particularly well in his home base around Auburn and his alma mater, Auburn University, but could not seal the deal against the charismatic Taylor, who took 56 percent of the vote to Lovvorn's 43 percent as Taylor outpolled Lovvorn in the crucial northern suburbs of Montgomery (where Taylor now resides). Taylor is now a lock for election to her first term in the heavily Republican district (being vacated by retiring longtime Republican Mike Rogers), which like the 1st further south was also made more Republican following the court-ordered redistricting of the neighboring 2nd District into a competitive, favorably Democratic Black-White coalition seat.

Up next: Fireworks at Mount Rushmore, and the conclusion of Act I in California...

[SaintStan86]

July 4, 2024
DeSANTIS APPEARS IN SOUTH DAKOTA, HOURS AFTER NOEM ENDORSEMENT
Just mere hours after being "re-endorsed" by Gov. Kristi Noem at an event near Mount Rushmore, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis spoke before an over-capacity crowd at the Mount Rushmore National Memorial Amphitheater on Independence Day. Though the South Dakota Gov. had already endorsed the presumptive Republican nominee earlier in the day, Noem reiterated her endorsement Thursday afternoon at the state capitol in Pierre as DeSantis prepares to gear up for the general election: "As governors of states who defied demands from out-of-state bureaucrats to punish their residents for the crime of simply being free, I could not think of someone more qualified and more prepared to become our next President than Gov. Ron DeSantis".

The evening was also defined by only the second fireworks show for guests at the amphitheater within the national memorial facing historic Mount Rushmore following a decision by the Supreme Court that overruled the authority of the White House to block such displays over concerns regarding wildfires and other natural disasters creating safety concerns for both guests and the surrounding environment. As with 2023 (when the displays resumed), Noem cited "aggressive efforts" to prevent wildfires in the vicinity surrounding the site, including the extensive clearing of excess brush and vegetation, the implementation of water lines to the area where the fireworks are launched, and on-call efforts by the State Fire Marshal and others to assist in case of a fire emergency. "Our wildland fire suppression efforts are second to none in this country", Noem stated when asked by reporters.

During the celebration, which was televised nationally on Fox News, DeSantis spoke glowingly of the nation: "For 248 years, America has shown the world what pride and patriotism means to us and to our neighbors. And for another 248 years, let our strength and resolve as a country serve as a testament to future generations that freedom matters. Because without freedom, the torch of Lady Liberty will never burn bright into the seas of our land, and the world will be poorer for not having known these wonderful United States of America". Following DeSantis's scintillating speech, a nearly hour-long fireworks display, set to a treasure trove of patriotic tunes both traditional and modern, commenced and evoked memories of former President Donald Trump's own 2020 celebration, held in the midst of COVID-imposed shutdowns in Washington, D.C. and elsewhere that compelled the then-President to travel to the state for Independence Day celebrations.

President Joe Biden, meanwhile, was in Washington, D.C. as expected on Independence Day with Vice President Kamala Harris and their spouses, and himself spoke vividly of the country on its 248th birthday: "No matter who you are, where you are from, what you believe in, there is one thing that binds us together: our shared love for America and all its people. Let the 4th of July serve as a testament to all that is good about our country and who we are as a nation". The celebrations in the nation's capital were televised on PBS and broadcast to the whole country on its over 200 member stations as well as the Armed Forces Network. Numerous other celebrations, from Virginia and Michigan to Texas and Colorado, also took place across the country on Thursday and within the few days before as well, and come as the nation is now less than 124 days away from its most pivotal election yet.

Meanwhile on the following night, the results are in from California...

U.S. SENATE ELECTION
Total Votes: 9,192,320
Rep. Kevin McCarthy - 2,072,868 (22.55 percent)
Former Amb. Richard Grenell - 1,341,160 (14.59 percent)
Rep. Adam Schiff - 1,317,260 (14.33 percent)
Rep. Katie Porter - 1,200,517 (13.06 percent)
Former Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante - 892,574 (9.71 percent)
Rep. Eric Swalwell - 686,666 (7.47 percent)
Rep. Raul Ruiz - 547,862 (5.96 percent)
Former Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva - 347,470 (3.78 percent)
Rep. Jared Huffman - 285,881 (3.11 percent)
Activist Marianne Williamson - 180,169 (1.96 percent) (also endorsed by the Peace and Freedom Party)
Other Republicans - 219,696 (2.39 percent)
Other Democrats - 41,365 (0.45 percent)
Other Independents/Third Party Candidates - 58,832 (0.64 percent)

Democratic Candidates: 56.05 percent
Republican Candidates: 39.53 percent
Independents/Other Candidates: 4.42 percent

July 5, 2024
GRENELL SECOND TO McCARTHY IN FINAL TALLY OF SENATE ELECTION RESULTS; DEMOCRATS GRANTED RECOUNT
On Friday night, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber released the completed count of the results from last June's U.S. Senate election, just as fireworks celebrations have already started to die down in most of the country. The results, as expected, show Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy with 22.55 percent and possession of first place. However, the much-closely watched second-place finish has been the focus of much of the American media over the last several weeks as Republican former Ambassador Ric Grenell maintained a 23,900-vote lead with 14.59 percent of the vote over his closest rival, Democratic U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, who received 14.33 percent of the vote and is himself over one percent ahead of his next closest rival, liberal U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, who received 13.06 percent of the vote in her final tally.

Immediately after the results were released around 6 p.m. Pacific time, Democrats immediately requested a recount and pointed the finger at Grenell's last-minute "push to stuff ballots across the state in his favor to deny half of the state of a candidate of their choice". "The results of the election here have proven that democracy is fragile and now the progressive majority that has made California the envy of the world will not have a choice on the ballot this November", warned California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks in a press conference at party headquarters in Sacramento. His Republican counterpart, Jessica Millan Patterson, called Hicks' crowing "mere sour grapes" and remarked "When Democrats shut Republicans out of past Senate races, they were quite boastful and while we were definitely demoralized by not having a conservative choice on the ballot those two Novembers (2016 and 2018), we didn't lash out the way a lot of California Democrats are now". Patterson also encouraged Democrats, especially "those who only identified as such because they were assumed to be the only game in town", to "take a hard look at either McCarthy or Grenell and our other fantastic downballot candidates that will restore the California dream and lay the groundwork for the California Comeback".

Exit polling also indicated that decline-to-state voters largely broke for Republicans by a nearly 2-1 margin, with nearly all Republicans casting votes for their candidates at 96 percent and Democrats giving 90 percent of their votes to their side. On the GOP side, "strong Trump supporters" broke for Grenell - who served under and was endorsed by former President Donald Trump - while many of the other Republicans voted largely for McCarthy. Among Democrats, the progressive bloc of Porter and fellow U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell and Jared Huffman largely comprised under half of the Democratic vote, while Schiff, former Lieutenant Gov. Cruz Bustamante and U.S. Rep. Raul Ruiz comprised most of the establishment and ethnic Democratic vote. Activist Marianne Williamson, who enjoyed outsized progressive support from Hollywood celebrities as well as the endorsement of the traditionally liberal Peace and Freedom Party, largely did well in and around Hollywood and San Francisco, but otherwise struggled statewide. Former Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva also enjoyed outsized support from some Trump voters as well as more conservative Hispanic Democrats, particularly in LA County including the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys (the latter of which is actually within Los Angeles proper), where he drew support for his law-and-order stances on crime.

While there is talk of a massive undervote push amongst hard-left liberals in the state, recent polls have indicated that more than 80 percent of those who voted for Democratic candidates in last month's Senate race intend to vote for a candidate on the ballot in November if the race is between McCarthy and Grenell, and while over a million voters chose not to back a candidate in Feinstein's 2018 election, the Senate vote tallies remained relatively unchanged compared to 2016 and 2012 (both presidential years). While some Democrats may consider expressing support for McCarthy simply because he is "the least extreme of the two", others have considered voting for McCarthy due to his experience serving in Congress. The same also holds true for Grenell, with some voters supporting Grenell simply because he is "the most extreme", and therefore the "more beatable" of the two in 2030, though there are also Democrats who are intrigued by Grenell being an openly gay Republican.

According to California law, any statewide recount will require the Secretary of State to notify elections officials in all of California's 58 counties; however, because the margins between Grenell and Schiff are well ahead of the 1,000 votes necessary to avoid a state-funded recount, the state has no plans to issue a state-funded recount, putting the onus on the Schiff campaign to fund all of the state's recounts in each of the counties. Counties that conduct recounts will likely have to wrap up their recounts until next Friday, July 12th, when Secretary of State Weber is required by law to certify the election and results in each county can only be recertified if the outcome changes in that particular county.

With that in mind, here is the latest Senate map...



Depending on how the results turn out in California, the uncertain nature of how the race has turned out for Democrats in the Golden State could potentially upend the party's chances in November, especially if progressives are hung out to dry by the state's Democratic establishment. However, if the results remain unchanged, the seat is automatically flipped to the GOP and the math becomes more perilous for the Democrats at the worst possible time. Democrats hold a 23-10 advantage in the current class up for election, and of those 23 the West Virginia seat of Joe Manchin is all but set to flip with state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey continuing to lead Democratic former State Sen. Richard Ojeda by double digits in most polls. Outside of California, the party's chances are not looking any better with Michigan and Montana now pure tossups, while the open Senate seat in Maine as well as incumbent seats in Ohio and Virginia are only tilting towards the Dems at this point. Seven other states are only leaning towards the Democrats, including New Jersey (where Dr. Oz is pulling within single digits of embattled Sen. Bob Menendez who has struggled to unite his party in the wake of his primary challenge from a more moderate challenger last month), Wisconsin (where Rep. Mike Gallagher has all but galvanized the GOP side of the ledger against Sen. Tammy Baldwin) and Nevada (where Army veteran and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown has started to unify his fellow Republicans against incumbent first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen.

By contrast, only four of the ten Republican seats are seen as even remotely competitive, with the open seat in Texas of Sen. Ted Cruz being the most so, and even in that state Rep. Dan Crenshaw has opened up leads outside the margin of error against former HUD Secretary and San Antonio mayor Julián Castro. In Missouri, Sen. Josh Hawley also is facing competitive headwinds from former State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who has started to cut into Hawley's normally strong margins in the state's rural heartland while otherwise maintaining a slight lead in more urban areas of the state around St. Louis and Kansas City, while in Florida, former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy has run a competitive race, the three-term former Congresswoman has struggled to gain support from Hispanics (especially in Miami's deeply anti-Communist Cuban and Venezuelan communities) while also losing at least 10 percent of 2020 Biden voters to incumbent Sen. Rick Scott. And while some Democrats are generating enthusiasm around State Sen. and former congressional candidate Shelli Yoder, she still trails by an average of 10 percent or higher against conservative freshman Mike Braun in the home state of former Vice President Mike Pence.

[SaintStan86]

July 10, 2024
TRUMP ENDORSES SEVERAL REPUBLICANS IN UPCOMING SENATE CONTESTS
On Wednesday, former President Donald Trump issued several endorsements for upcoming Senate contests next month where a filibuster-proof majority is at stake for the Republican majority. The most notable of these endorsements came in Arizona, where Trump endorsed conservative Rep. Paul Gosar for the Republican nomination in the seat currently occupied by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. In endorsing Gosar, Trump cited the hard-right Gosar's "steadfast defense of election integrity" called Gosar "TOUGH on borders, crime and spending!" Gosar, a former dentist who has become a lion amongst far-right factions of the GOP, remains mired in a three-way battle for the GOP nomination between fellow conservative U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs (who has been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth) and David Schweikert (who has been endorsed by former Sen. Martha McSally and former Govs. Jan Brewer and Doug Ducey), in a primary that has pitted the three stalwart conservatives against one another with no credible moderate amongst them, despite Schweikert's endorsements viewed arguably as more "establishment" compared to his rivals.

Upon news of the endorsement, Gosar touted the former President as "a steadfast champion for America First principles and the values that made our country great and will make it great again", while Biggs and Schweikert mostly brushed off the news as "just another endorsement" per the former's words. Biggs touted his strong conservative voting record (one of the strongest in the House) and unwavering support for the former President's agenda, while Schweikert pointed to his "decades-long service dating back to elected office here in Maricopa County alongside the likes of Senator John McCain and Sheriff Joe Arpaio". Overall, polling in the Arizona primaries has been very close between the "big three" Republicans, with each of the candidates still trailing Sinema for the moment. Sinema herself is mired in a fierce battle with her more progressive challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has targeted Sinema for her defense of the filibuster and other liberal apostasies - for which such attacks have only intensified in the wake of various priorities of the Biden administration including election reform and the Supreme Court being scuttled by more moderate Democrats.

Trump also endorsed Sen. Josh Hawley in his renomination bid in Missouri against fellow Republican Rep. Ann Wagner: "The people who are unfairly attacking Josh Hawley are the same people that wish our movement would just go away...the same people who pushed OPEN BORDERS, CRIME and WASTEFUL SPENDING and did nothing to help hardworking families here at home! Josh Hawley terrifies the DC Swamp, and that's why it's important we send Josh back to the Senate!" Hawley touted the endorsement as "further proof that voters want to send me back to Washington to fight for them!", while Wagner pointed to her "decades of service to the people of Missouri as proof that celebrity endorsements from out-of-state interests mean nothing compared to what I have done for them". The winner of the GOP primary will face likely Democratic opponent and former State Auditor Nicole Galloway in what is expected to be one of the closest Senate races in the country.

And in Wisconsin, Trump endorsed Rep. Scott Fitzgerald over fellow Rep. Mike Gallagher in the fight to take on two-term Democrat Tammy Baldwin. While Gallagher has for the most part led in the polls statewide (particularly in his Green Bay-area district as well as in much of rural Wisconsin), Fitzgerald has attempted to close the gap while maintaining sizable support in his suburban Milwaukee district which covers the "W"'s out of the influential WOW counties (Washington and Waukesha; Ozaukee County, north of the city, is in the 6th District) on the basis of both his strong conservative voting record and past experience as a prominent foot soldier in then Gov. Scott Walker's anti-union efforts as State Senate Majority Leader in 2011. Trump's endorsement, though, has largely been predicated on Fitzgerald's vote to not certify the results of the 2020 election in Arizona and Pennsylvania - for which Gallagher not only voted to certify, but also signed-on to an op-ed in which he and several other conservative members of Congress argued, while acknowledging voter fraud, that the Congress had no authority to influence the results. For the most part Walker (for whom Gallagher worked as a foreign policy advisor to his short-lived 2016 presidential campaign) has largely stayed out of the race though one poll has shown Gallagher dominating among those who preferred Walker's style of Republican politics to Trump's.

Trump also issued endorsements to several other Senate candidates across the country, including NRSC Chairman and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, who is facing off against Democratic former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a moderate who later became more known for her role on the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol during the previous Congress. Scott is the only other incumbent besides Hawley that Trump has endorsed; other endorsements include Reps. John James of Michigan (who is facing off against former Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington (who is running for the open seat of Democrat Maria Cantwell), as well as former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, for whom Trump called her "the greatest sideline reporter in the history of the NFL". All of the Senate contests in which Trump has endorsed these candidates will be taking place next August, with several of the nominees wading into some of the most competitive races in the country that could determine whether or not Republicans gain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

July 11, 2024
ELON MUSK ENDORSES DeSANTIS FOR NOVEMBER: "THE FUTURE RUNS RIGHT THROUGH HIM"
On Thursday, entrepreneur and multibillionaire Elon Musk endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a rally in Austin, Texas, as the Tesla and SpaceX brainchild proclaimed to a jubilant capacity crowd at Q2 Stadium (the home of Austin's Major League Soccer team, Austin FC) on the city's north side: "The future runs right through him, and as President he will move this great country forward!". In accepting the endorsement, DeSantis declared "Are we going to govern as conservatives? Absolutely. We're going to get back to business...investing in our country first, rebuilding our infrastructure from railroads and bridges to space travel and the hyperloop, and we're not going to let off the gas!"

DeSantis was also joined on stage by U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, a former congressional colleague of DeSantis's whose common committee assignments included the House Foreign Affairs Committee McCaul now chairs. "To those of you who doubt that Ron DeSantis is prepared to defend America because he's not the favored choice of the foreign policy establishment: He will put America first not just here at home, but also abroad as well" and also implored the audience to "show the national and Texas media that Republicans who actually are proud to call Austin and central Texas home are here to stay and have big, beating hearts!", taking aim at the notion that Democrats hold a monopoly on the region.

Several former Texas Longhorn athletes were also on stage as well, and even played recordings of the Texas Fight song as well as The Eyes of Texas as the rally continued, with DeSantis even remarking "Hey, you're all good sports here, aren't y'all?...I guess I'm an honorary Texan now!" before being presented with a cowboy hat with a monogrammed band that reads "DeSantis 2024" in burnt orange. Not surprisingly, some on social media did not take too kindly to the rally, especially the portions referencing The Eyes of Texas whose lyrics were alleged to have drawn inspiration from pro-slavery movements in the antebellum South, with one random Twitter user implying "At a time when America is poised to make Kamala Harris the first Black woman in the White House, @RonDeSantis is aiming for a return to Jim Crow.". In response, Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Herschel Walker of Georgia, both Black Republicans, rushed to DeSantis's defense and argued that the presumptive GOP nominee "intended no ill will" (Scott's words) and "will not be beholden to the PC police" (Walker's words).

And now, it's late Friday night. Will the results change in California, or will they not?...

July 12, 2024
CALIFORNIA SECRETARY OF STATE CERTIFIES SENATE RESULTS AS RECOUNT FAILS TO CHANGE RESULT
While the back-and-forth jostling over election returns in California during a recount being paid for by the Democratic National Committee and the campaign of candidate and current U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff continues, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, officially certified the results of last June's Senate race for Sen. Dianne Feinstein's open seat, with the top two spots for the November election going to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Ambassador Ric Grenell, both Republicans, with Grenell maintaining a razor-thin lead of less than 24,000 votes over Schiff for second place. Not surprisingly, the results continue to be disputed as national Democrats have stepped in to help fund both the recounts in all 58 counties and Schiff's legal defense fund for the recount.

While the national media continues to hold off on declaring the results final for second place as the recount is still ongoing, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel congratulated both McCarthy and Grenell for running "great campaigns and sending a clear message to Democrats that Californians are ready to move on with a new Senator that will put hardworking Californians FIRST". However, Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison responded "Not so fast!" in quoting McDaniel on Twitter, and later released a statement: "The Democratic Party is working hard to ensure that every ballot from every Californian is processed in the final count of votes, and given that a large number of the outstanding provisional and absentee ballots are coming from Democrats, we are confident that Adam Schiff will prevail and will be our nominee".

Over on HBO, liberal comedian Bill Maher (who has since become critical of the "woke illiberalism ruining the Democratic Party") responded on his show Real Time with Bill Maher: "Face it Democrats, you lost. And I can guarantee you that even if there were a million outstanding ballots left - which there isn't - poor Adam Schiff still wouldn't have enough votes to overcome Richard Grenell. Maybe you should have told Cruz Bustamante to go back to playing golf like you should have done after what he did in 2003 getting Arnold Schwarzenegger elected. Maybe you should have told Eric Swalwell to spend time playing dirty sex with his Chinese bride. Maybe you should have told that Jared guy (Rep. Jared Huffman) to go back to his hot tub time machine in Marin. If you did this, maybe you or Katie Porter would have won. But even so, you still would have lost anyway. Liberalism is not the problem. Feeling like you're entitled to a Senate seat to where there are too many people fighting over that one seat...that's the problem". Maher also continued by proclaiming to Schiff "If anything Adam, the big winner in this whole Senate affair is Jim Rogan, who was where you are now when I was still doing Politically Incorrect", referring to former Republican Congressman Jim Rogan (who Schiff defeated in 2000 in what was then a historically Republican district anchored in Burbank, Pasadena and Glendale that has since become heavily Democratic) as well as former Comedy Central and ABC late night show that preceded his current HBO program.

Results on the recount are expected to continue for at least the next two weeks while Democrats and Republicans continue to jostle over which postmarked ballots to count and which ones to let out to stray. It is widely expected that a final decision on the race will be made before the end of the month, after which the affected parties will have no choice but to move on. Or will they?

July 14, 2024
HARRIS ON RUNNING MATE CHOICE: "I'M STILL COUNTING MY OPTIONS"
During an interview with Sharyn Alfonsi on CBS's 60 Minutes, Vice President Kamala Harris continued to remain coy on who her running mate for the 2024 Democratic presidential ticket will be. When asked about the matter, Harris replied "Frankly, I think we all know what to look for in a running mate. But the person I have in mind for the position is someone who is committed to serving the American people with the highest level of dignity, is someone who is going to work hard to deliver a transformative agenda for this country, and is someone who is not going to be beholden to the special interests that have become all too cozy with the new Congress that has proven to be disruptive to the decorum sorely lacking in both houses".

Among key Democratic Party insiders, much of the speculation for a potential running mate has centered on Sens. Gary Peters of Michigan, Mark Warner of Virginia, Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Jon Ossoff of Georgia - all of whom won on the backs of moderate suburban voters in their respective states, with former U.S. Rep. and 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Tim Ryan, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and North Carolina Gov. and former 2024 candidate Roy Cooper also in consideration with regards to their appeal to blue-collar voters that have been driven away from Democrats within the last two decades. There are also some who have suggested Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois or Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (also a former 2024 presidential contender as well as in 2020), but some have warned against picking an all-woman ticket for the Democratic side out of concern that crucial suburban and blue-collar votes may not be drawn to such a ticket.

When also asked about how she can proceed with pushing a united Democratic front knowing that the chances of a Democratic majority in the Senate are slim to none, Harris pointed to various Republican Senators "who don't necessarily toe the line" (such as Mitt Romney who had just been renominated last month in Utah and "reliable moderate" Susan Collins of Maine) as proof that "progressive policies are still workable even in a situation where the GOP has an unearned majority in the Senate", while also adding that Democrats are "poised to make gains with great candidates promoting a positive message", pointing to Julián Castro in Texas and Stephanie Murphy in Florida as such examples. The NRSC responded to Harris's interview by dismissing the thought of Democratic pickups in the aforementioned states, "Republicans are committed to growing their majority in the Senate, and putting a much-needed end to Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris's "great reset" threat".

Harris also took time during the interview with regards to the ongoing Senate primary debacle in California, in which Democrats have been for the most part shut out of the November election with the top two slots going to Republicans (one of them being House Speaker Kevin McCarthy). When asked by Alfonsi if this impacts the viability of her campaign going forward, Harris replied: "Of course, I am very disappointed in the outcome of the Senate race in my home state, I wish it could have been better for Democrats knowing what they're up against, but regardless of what happens California Democrats are going to work overtime to elect progressive leaders to office from the courthouse to the White House, and we are poised to make gains in Congress from California as well". With regards to Rep. Adam Schiff, who trails second-place challenger and Republican Ric Grenell in the total vote count, "Adam Schiff has done a phenomenal job for the people of his district and especially for the American people in his steadfast commitment to the truth in holding Donald Trump accountable for his actions, especially January 6th, which remains one of the darkest days in our nation's history."

Up next: The conclusion of the California saga...


Editor's note: I do want to apologize with regards to the location of the Democratic National Convention and their Republican counterpart. When I started this TL, I predicted that the Democrats would be holding their convention in Milwaukee and the GOP would be doing the same thing in Pittsburgh, as both regions are considered pivotal to their presidential chances in 2024. However, Democrats have decided not to reward Milwaukee with a full-blown do-over of their drastically scaled-back (thanks COVID!) 2020 convention, while Republicans have eliminated Pittsburgh as of this February. Instead, Republicans will be picking from either Milwaukee or Nashville, while Democrats are looking to choose between Atlanta, Chicago, Houston and New York City. Regardless of what happens, I won't be going back to modifying the locations of the first debates that were meant to be held in the host cities of their respective conventions, but I will say that in this TL the first debates will now be happening in the cities that are hosting the conventions, which I predict will be Milwaukee for the GOP and Houston for the Democrats; the rest of the debates will remain where they were previously. And if a city has been decided after I mention the conventions in this TL, one thing is clear: I won't be modifying the convention part of the story either.

P.S. the Summer Olympics in Paris will be taking place from Friday, July 26 to Sunday, August 11, 2024. This will definitely be factored into the timing of the conventions and already has, as will whatever potential Olympians do in fact end up in this TL, where I'm pretty sure that the folks in California will want to have the recount done and over with before the cauldron is lit in Paris.

[SaintStan86]

July 18, 2024
DOZENS KILLED, HUNDREDS INJURED IN EXPLOSION AT FORT MOORE; TERRORISM RULED OUT AS CAUSE OF EXPLOSION
An explosion Thursday afternoon on the grounds of Fort Moore (formerly Fort Benning) in Georgia left 39 dead and over 400 injured, many of them active service members with the U.S. Army as well as contractors hired by the Department of Defense to work on base. According to eyewitness accounts, the explosion reportedly happened around 1 p.m. Eastern time when an electrical short in a climate-controlled room within the Logistics Readiness Center enveloped into a massive fireball that flashed over and set off subsequent explosions, destroying warehouses on the property and causing significant damage to much of the military vehicle fleet on base. Some of the fatalities were so critically burned that dental records will be necessary to identify some of the victims, while at least 60 others were critically injured to the point where they had to be transported to hospitals well outside the surrounding Columbus, Georgia area; hospitals in Atlanta, Birmingham, Macon and Huntsville have been on standby, with Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta reportedly diverting its own local trauma cases to other nearby hospitals to accommodate the most seriously injured victims from the Fort Moore blast.

President Biden spoke to the nation in a rare Oval Office address, calling the explosion "a senseless and horrible tragedy affecting one of our nation's most elite and storied Army institutions - Fort Banning (sic) - Fort Moore I shall say" and "vowing a complete and thorough investigation after the deceased are buried into why this happened, and what can be done to ensure a tragedy of this magnitude never happens again". Attorney General Merrick Garland also ruled out the possibility that terrorism played a role in the explosion, "Based on records we have obtained so far, there is no evidence to suggest that any sort of terrorism against our military occurred at Fort Moore this afternoon", while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pointed out that "Given how relatively new these facilities are, a lot of work is going to be put into finding out why such relatively new facilities on the grounds of Fort Moore could not withstand the impact of this explosion".

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp ordered flags lowered to half-staff across the state, with President Biden expanding the order to a federal mandate shortly after his primetime address. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also issued his thoughts and condolences to the victims of the explosion, while several other Republicans began to probe the origins of the tragedy. House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, whose Alabama district borders Fort Moore, has also held off on assigning blame for the tragedy but has already indicated that "our committee is going to get to the bottom of why this happened and will be working closely with authorities at the Pentagon and locally to pinpoint the cause of this explosion". Particularly in Georgia and nearby Alabama, the explosion has also prompted long lines for blood donations at blood banks throughout the Southeast, while numerous charity benefits benefiting the victims and families of both the injured and killed service members have also begun to pop up.

July 19, 2024
21 DEAD, OVER 200 INJURED IN EXPLOSION AT REFINERY IN HOUSTON
Not even a full 24 hours after the disaster at Fort Moore in Georgia, an explosion at a chemical plant on the Houston Ship Channel awakened thousands of residents just before the sun was up at 6 a.m. The explosion occurred at the Pemex refinery in Deer Park, an industrial suburb of Houston where neighbors were awakened to the sound of a loud bang, burning petroleum and sirens of first responders racing to the scene. By afternoon, 21 were confirmed dead and more than 200 were injured including several with third-degree burns, along with reports of damage as far west as Sugar Land, Galveston and The Woodlands and dozens more injured from shattered glass and debris as windows were blown out of many downtown Houston skyscrapers. Houston freeways were also shut down as reports of damage along Interstate 10 from Baytown to the Memorial area of west Houston, along with a frantic push by authorities to clear the freeways for ambulances and fire trucks, disrupted the morning commute in the nation's fourth-largest city.

Following news of a second straight disaster in as many days, President Biden addressed the nation once again at 8 P.M. Central time, declaring "Our hearts go out to the victims of the horrible tragedy in Houston, victims of a disaster that did not have to happen", perhaps alluding to the oil and gas industry that has been singled out by the Biden administration from day one over the nature of its industry. Republicans blasted the speech, with Ron DeSantis calling the President's concerns "hollow" and calling on Kamala Harris to decide whether or not to align with "far-left radicals" who back her party's "Green New Deal" or with working-class voters "who wonder if the Democratic Party even wants them anymore". Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn, the senior Senator from Texas, arrived at Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston on Friday evening and immediately vowed "a thorough investigation into what happened at the Pemex refinery", and also called out Democrats for "attempting to politicize this tragedy for their own benefit". His Senate colleague, Sen. Ted Cruz, was already in the area when the explosion happened and took to Fox News late that evening: "The Biden administration will use any sort of tragedy involving the oil and gas industry to force the Great Reset on Americans who don't want it, period."

Gov. Greg Abbott canceled his entire weekend schedule to focus on recovery and healing efforts with regards to the tragedy, and also lambasted his Democratic counterparts for "attempting to politicize yet another tragedy in our great state solely for the purpose of radically transforming this state". "Of course, we must give thoughts and prayers, and that is what the victims and their families want. Let us grieve now and let's discuss the why behind this later, because justice is not going to come in the form of vengeance with impulse", said Abbott. As of Friday evening, crude oil prices reportedly shot up more than nine percent, with gas prices expected to rise in the coming days, bringing back memories of 2022's historically high gas price crunch that doomed President Biden's agenda in that year's midterm elections.

July 23, 2024
NORTH CAROLINA GOP VOTERS DECIDE NOMINEE IN OPEN CONGRESSIONAL SEAT
Tuesday night proved to be a very quiet night on the election front, as North Carolina Republicans selected their nominee in the western Piedmont-based 5th District of retiring Republican Virginia Foxx. In that runoff, former State Sen. Deanna Ballard (who left the legislature in 2022 after narrowly losing reelection in a district combined with that of another GOP State Senator) won 59 percent of the vote on the strength of her endorsement by the venerable Foxx and strong support in areas stretching from Boone to Wilkesboro. Her opponent, State Rep. Kyle Hall, won in the eastern portion of the district closer to Winston-Salem (of which he represents several areas north of the Piedmont Triad in the state house) but struggled west of Forsyth County. Ballard will now advance to the general election where she is heavily favored to win in November as Democrats are only competitive in the Winston-Salem and Boone portions of the district, the latter of which is home to Appalachian State University.

But the following day actually turned out to be anything but uneventful. It is now 6:10PM on Wednesday, July 24th...

Wolf Blitzer, CNN anchor
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Philkirwin

ANNOUNCER: From CNN, this is Breaking News...
WOLF BLITZER: Breaking news, happening now from California, where the California Secretary of State, Shirley Weber, is set to speak to reporters about the results of the recount for the Senate election last June to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Dianne Feinstein. Let's listen in...

(moments later...)

SHIRLEY WEBER: Based on the results of the primary election, which show a gap of 23,848 votes separating Richard Grenell, Republican of Palm Springs, and Adam Schiff, Democrat of Burbank, the recount did not result in a change of outcome based on the statewide results. Because of this, the campaign of Mr. Schiff is hereby considered liable for the cost of the recount conducted statewide.

(10 minutes later...)

WOLF BLITZER: You just heard it from Shirley Weber, the California Secretary of State, announcing that the recount conducted statewide at the request of Congressman Adam Schiff, who finished third in the canvassed count from the June 4th election, did not result in a change of outcome for Schiff. With Democrats having indicated they will not put any more resources towards a second recount and the Schiff campaign having exhausted enough resources to fund the recount with so much going on in this election cycle, it appears the effort to alter the results - as expected - has failed.

Therefore, CNN can now project that Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany and one-time acting Director of National Intelligence to former President Donald Trump, will finish second in the final results to fellow Republican and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. This means, that for the first time in 32 years, when Dianne Feinstein won this very same Senate seat in a special election against then-incumbent Republican John Seymour, who himself ascended when Republican Pete Wilson was elected Governor in 1990, there will be a Republican Senator from the state of California. A major, major, major blow to the Democrats' chances of winning back a majority in the U.S. Senate and an embarrassment to the presidential campaign of Feinstein's former Senate colleague, Vice President Kamala Harris.

Six years ago, Feinstein won in a race where Republicans failed to even field a candidate, instead winning against Democratic State Sen. Kevin de Leon, and Kamala Harris herself defeated a fellow Democrat, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, in 2016. In both races, Republicans failed to field a candidate for November. And now, in 2024, the Senate seat of Dianne Feinstein, the former San Francisco Mayor who rose to power in the wake of the assassination of predecessor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk in 1978, will flip back to the GOP in perhaps the most bizarre fashion imaginable...(walks to Jake Tapper)

Jake Tapper, I have seen bizarre election outcomes before, including 2000 when the world was focused on Florida, and 2020 with the allegations of voter fraud from Donald Trump and the ensuing insurrection the following January 6th. But this has to really take the cake.

JAKE TAPPER: No doubt it does, when you consider that one of the aims of replacing the old primary system with a top-two format similar to what exists in Louisiana was to encourage competitive elections in all parts of California, including areas that heavily favor one party over the other. What has happened over the 12 years it has been implemented is that the Democrats largely benefited from it, in some cases fixating on two Democrats in a swing district even against a crowded Republican field, taking advantage of that divided field to shut the GOP out, and in some cases it benefited the Republicans as well. That explains why voters from both parties in California, but most especially Republicans, have felt buyer's remorse. The outcome we've just witnessed, where a very divided Democratic field failed to produce a candidate against Republicans who coalesced around two brand-name candidates, has now cast doubts in the minds of many Democrats who increasingly feel the strategy has failed them in the end.

July 24, 2024
GRENELL PROJECTED TO ADVANCE TO NOVEMBER ELECTION IN CALIFORNIA; SCHIFF RELUCTANTLY CONCEDES
On Wednesday night, the results of a recount ordered by the campaign of Democratic Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Adam Schiff failed to change the outcome of last June's primary for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Democrat Dianne Feinstein. With not much of a change after all postmarked and provisional ballots were counted in the California Senate race, former Ambassador Ric Grenell was projected by many media sources to be the second-place finisher of last June's primary, and will now face off against House Speaker and fellow Republican Kevin McCarthy in November. With the outcome now all but set in stone, Republicans scored their first, and arguably most unexpected, pickup of the 2024 cycle. While the GOP has had competitive Senate races in California since then, including contests against Feinstein by Michael Huffington in 1994, as well as against Barbara Boxer by Bruce Herschensohn in 1992 and Carly Fiorina in 2010, the state otherwise had become a reliable bastion for the Democrats in Senate elections as two of the last four Senate elections resulted in a November race between two Democrats. With the shocking shutout of the Democrats in this year's Senate contest, the outcome is certain to call into question the viability of the state's "top two" primary system that has since been implemented in Washington and has long been practiced in Louisiana.

After deciding that one recount is "enough" given the limited financial resources available after aggressive spending during the primary, the 12-term Rep. Schiff conceded defeat. "I am proud of the fantastic campaign we have ran, and am heartened by your overwhelming support both during our campaign and as we sought to count every vote in this election. But in the end, the people have spoken, and because of the somewhat broken nature of the election system we ran in, where Republicans took advantage of a worthy reform that a fellow Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger, championed as Governor, and used it to subvert our chances at continuing to provide Californians with solid progressive leadership that embodies the California dream, we unfortunately will not be able to move forward in November. Make no mistake, I would have done more than fulfill the duties of this seat had I made it to the November election and likely won, but the broken system has failed us in the end. To that extent, I wish the victor, whether it's Speaker McCarthy or Ambassador Grenell, the very best as they proceed to the next phase of this election and seek out the votes of millions of Californians, and it is my hope that this outcome humbles them to serve the interest of all Californians and not just the one half or less that voted for them". The final outcome has prompted clarion calls from many Democrats for their party's state leadership, including Chairperson Rusty Hicks, to resign in the wake of the controversial outcome.

To no great surprise, Vice President Kamala Harris (who succeeded Boxer in the state's other Senate seat in 2016) was also very disappointed in the result. "It is heartbreaking to see that Senator Feinstein's successor will be someone who was not chosen by a majority of Californians in the June primary, but we must all understand that situations like these are what it takes for people to become powered by action. We may feel dejected, but keep in mind that while Democrats have an even bigger uphill climb to take back the majority, the main goal is to stop the Republicans from electing a filibuster-proof majority that will allow Ron DeSantis to run our country into the ground in such heartbreaking ways that even Donald Trump's presidency will look like a distant memory", Harris spoke in a primetime press conference directed at her fellow Californians; the speech was televised during primetime 10 P.M. newscasts in the Golden State (which translates into 1 A.M. in New York City).

Some Democrats have floated the possibility of an "independent Republican coalition" where majority control is guaranteed in exchange for allowing a Democrat to serve as Majority Leader regardless of the outcome of the 2024 elections; however, virtually all Republicans including Sens. Ted Cruz, J.D. Vance, Ben Sasse, Lindsey Graham and even Mitt Romney have shot down this suggestion, with Sasse arguing that "I will only serve as a Republican Senator accountable to conservative leaders, of which there are none on the Democratic side of course" and Graham implying "The only boss I listen to is (Senate Majority Leader) John Cornyn, and I will emphatically reject any effort to divide our Republican conference in such an insidious and unconstitutional way".

With Schiff having now conceded and the Senate matchup in California now set, here is the new map...

With California's open Senate seat now officially lost to the Republicans, Democrats are left scrambling to see if any opportunities at all exist to even gain at least a 50-50 split similar to the makeup of the Senate after the 2020 election. While Omaha City Council President and healthcare executive Pete Festersen's bid in Nebraska against two-term incumbent Deb Fischer has started to show promise with one recent internal poll showing Festersen within single digits of Fischer, the race has yet to become competitive and Fischer continues to hold a wide lead in fundraising as of the second quarter. Democrats also have several marginal Senate seats to defend, which further add to the potential threat of the party getting forced into a filibuster-proof minority.

[SaintStan86]

It's the end of July, and the world is putting their troubles aside for the biggest sporting event in the world...

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: POCOG (Paris 2024)

As much of the world is tuned into their TVs, smartphones and other devices (not counting those actually at the Games themselves), the Americans as expected performed at the top of their game. Already, several swimmers from the decorated Virginia women's team have won a number of medals, but Katie Ledecky still outshone her rivals, setting new individual records in terms of medals at the Paris Games. The U.S. also dominated the shooting and beach volleyball events, and has been surprisingly good in men's soccer (Women's soccer, of course, is doing well, political hijinks of Megan Rapinoe notwithstanding in her Olympics swan song), with basketball also expected to be a powerhouse on both sides. The big story, however, is in gymnastics, where Simone Biles - four years removed from bowing out of some competitions as mental health became a hot topic (and a source of derision among some conservative keyboard warriors) - came back to win gold in a number of events, with the rest of the golds being won by her fellow U.S. teammates in a grand turnaround of a program marred by the infamous sexual assault scandal that is most known in the political world for clinching the election of Michigan Gov. (and current U.S. Senate candidate) Gretchen Whitmer in 2018.

But as the Olympics were ongoing, some NBC affiliates have one other unavoidable reality: There are elections to be decided as well in several states...

August 1, 2024
TENNESSEE HOLDS PRIMARIES FOR SENATE, OPEN CONGRESSIONAL SEATS
On Thursday, voters in Tennessee took to the polls as Democrats and Republicans nominated their choices for the House and Senate, as well as state legislative races further downballot. In contrast with past years that saw vigorous congressional battles and open Senate and gubernatorial action, this year's affair was a remarkably quiet one save for two open seats southeast of Nashville and in Memphis - both in districts not expected to be competitive in November and considered safe for the incumbent parties. As expected, first-term Sen. Marsha Blackburn easily won the Republican primary for Senate, but unlike 2018 where she won a competitive open race against Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen, Blackburn is favored to win a second term in November against west Nashville-based State Rep. and former mayoral candidate John Ray Clemmons.

The only two other notable races in Tennessee on Tuesday were open congressional primaries for seats considered safe for the retiring incumbents' parties: the heavily Republican 4th District connecting southeast suburbs of Nashville to areas west of Chattanooga, and the majority Black 9th District anchored in Memphis. In the 4th District of retiring Republican Scott DesJarlais, physician and 2020 U.S. Senate GOP primary dark horse Manny Sethi overcame residency issues brought up by his opponents to win the GOP primary on the strength of major conservative endorsements from Blackburn and others, while former Shelby County Commissioner and Black Lives Matter activist Tami Sawyer, who was in the midst of her doctoral candidacy for a Ph.D. in Public Policy when longtime Democrat Steve Cohen announced his retirement, emerged out of a crowded Democratic field in Cohen's 9th District to win her party's nomination - tantamount to election in the overwhelmingly Democratic, majority Black district where she will be set to become Tennessee's first Black Congresswoman - a fact highlighted by former talk show host and former Nashville TV reporter Oprah Winfrey on social media.

August 6, 2024
WHITMER-JAMES SENATE RACE SET IN MICHIGAN; NEW ENGLAND RACES SET IN STONE
Meanwhile, in Michigan one of the biggest Senate races of the cycle proceeded to the general election with former Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. John James easily winning their party's respective primaries for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow (who was side by side with Whitmer in Lansing on Tuesday night). Whitmer has raised the most money of any non-incumbent Senate candidate, Democrat or Republican, but James has kept the race close throughout with blue-collar voters in the Mid-Michigan region, suburban moderates around Detroit and various groups of swing voters in West Michigan and in the Upper Peninsula being widely sought after by both candidates. Most of the action on Tuesday was within the state's congressional districts including three open seats and a number of marginal districts. One of these is James' 10th District primarily based in southern Macomb County, with Republican State Sen. Mike MacDonald set to face off against Macomb County Executive and Democratic maverick Mark Hackel, one of the DCCC's most prized recruits of the 2024 election, in the proverbial heartland of the Reagan Democrats.

Elsewhere in Michigan, Democrats selected candidates in two Metro Detroit districts - one the open seat of Rep. Debbie Dingell, who is retiring after five terms, ending 92 years of service between her, her late husband John Dingell Jr. and his father John Sr.. In Dingell's 6th district anchored in Ann Arbor and Detroit's western suburbs, State Sen. Jeff Irwin emerged out of the Democratic primary and will be heavily favored to win in November against a nominal (albeit well-funded) GOP opponent, while former Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, known for her role as the presiding judge who sentenced disgraced USA Gymnastics team doctor Larry Nassar in his trial for sexually abusing dozens of the team's gymnasts, resigned from the bench as she sought the Democratic nomination in the 7th District (which connects the state capital of Lansing to Detroit's northwestern suburbs including Livingston County) and will now face freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett.

Outside of Metro Detroit, Democrat Dan Kildee will face a rematch against his 2022 Republican challenger, former TV news anchor Paul Junge, in the 8th District centered in the Mid-Michigan region including Flint, Saginaw and Bay City, while term-limited State Rep. Rachel Hood will take on two-term Republican Peter Meijer, one of four Republicans remaining out of the ten who voted to impeach then-President Trump in his second impeachment trial, in a competitive district centered on Grand Rapids. And in the 1st District of retiring Republican Jack Bergman, whose district covers much of northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, State Rep. Greg Markkanen who is of Finnish descent and represents an Upper Peninsula district with a sizable Finnish diaspora, will face Marquette Mayor Jenna Smith after both won their respective Republican and Democratic primaries.

In New England, Democrats also selected nominees in Connecticut to take on freshmen Republicans Mike France in the eastern-based 2nd District and George Logan in the Litchfield County-based 5th District, respectively nominating State Reps. Gregg Haddad and Maria Horn, while also nominating Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and attorney and former State Sen. Ted Kennedy Jr. to respectively succeed retiring Democrats John Larson in the Hartford-based 1st District and Rosa DeLauro in the 3rd District. Lesley DeNardis, who ran a close race against DeLauro in the New Haven-based 3rd in 2022, will be back again to challenge Kennedy in November in the open latter seat, while former State Sen. Kevin Witkos, a volunteer firefighter who served 20 years in the state legislature, won the Republican nomination to take on two-term Sen. Chris Murphy.

Voters in Vermont also nominated former state Attorney General T.J. Donovan, the current Director of Public Policy for Roblox Corporation (known for its namesake gaming platform) over former State Senator Becca Balint, who attacked Donovan for "abandoning Vermonters" in deciding to take the job at Roblox but otherwise failed to gain much traction as she lost progressive votes to former Lieutenant Gov. David Zuckerman, who won the Vermont Progressive Party endorsement for Senate on Tuesday, setting up a three-way battle between Donovan, Zuckerman and another former Lieutenant Gov., Brian Dubie (also a former American Airlines pilot), who won the Republican nomination on Tuesday and has been endorsed by Gov. Phil Scott. Scott himself will be seeking reelection against State House Speaker Jill Krowinski, while first-term Democrat Molly Gray will be heavily favored to win a second term to the state's at-large congressional seat.

August 6, 2024
HAWLEY SURVIVES PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN MISSOURI; ASHCROFT TO FACE KANDER FOR GOVERNOR
On Tuesday night, Sen. Josh Hawley was renominated in the Republican primary for his U.S. Senate seat in Missouri, defeating Rep. Ann Wagner in a race where the suburban St. Louis-based Wagner attempted to portray Hawley as "too divisive" to effectively serve the one-time swing state that has since become a Republican stronghold in recent years, as the state's rural vote dramatically shifted to the GOP over the last decade. In the primary, Hawley won 59 percent of the vote and almost every county in the state, with one notable exception being Wagner's home St. Louis County, which gave Wagner 56 percent of the vote as she won 32 percent statewide. Speaking before his watch party in Branson, Hawley touted his victory as "proof that voters here in the Show Me State want us to show a conservative show of strength...That is what the voters wanted when they sent me to the Senate in 2018, and that is what the voters have gotten and will get."

Wagner attempted to portray Hawley as "too extreme" to effectively serve Missourians and also faulted the freshman Senator for his allegedly abandoning the state, as the Senator's family (including his wife and three children) has largely been in Northern Virginia to "stay together as a family" while maintaining a residence at the address of Hawley's sister in a Springfield suburb. In addition, the Congresswoman also obtained the endorsement of former Sen. John Danforth, who held the same Senate seat from 1976 to 1994 and withdrew support for Hawley in the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol. However, it wasn't enough as former President Donald Trump's endorsement, as well as a voting record viewed as "insufficiently conservative" by the grassroots, ultimately doomed Wagner in her bid to defeat Hawley. Following her concession to Hawley, Wagner thanked her supporters at a suburban St. Louis country club and urged them to "never cease to fight for what makes this country great and work to elect Republicans at all levels this year", while stopping short of endorsing her rival. Hawley will now face Democratic former State Auditor Nicole Galloway in November, in what is expected to be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.

Voters in Missouri also elected congressional nominees in three open districts, including Wagner's suburban St. Louis-based 2nd District where State House Speaker Dean Plocher was the runaway favorite in the Republican primary and will now take on St. Louis police union attorney Jane Dueker in the affluent, Republican-favored district. Dueker ran an unsuccessful challenge in 2022 for the Democratic nomination against then-St. Louis County Executive Sam Page, who went on to lose to Republican State Rep. Shamed Dogan the following November. Voters also selected their nominees in the neighboring 3rd District (anchored in Jefferson City but extending eastward to St. Charles and other exurbs of St. Louis), where State Sen. Travis Fitzwater won a crowded Republican primary to become the favorite to succeed retiring Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer, and in the Kansas City-based 5th District, where Kansas City Councilman and Mayor Pro Tem Kevin McManus emerged out of a large Democratic field to win his party's nomination - the real contest in the heavily Democratic district of retiring Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

Meanwhile, in the open race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Parson, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft defeated Lieutenant Gov. Mike Kehoe with endorsements from Trump as well as former President George W. Bush (who appointed Ashcroft's father, then-defeated U.S. Sen. John Ashcroft, to serve as his first Attorney General). Kehoe hoped to build on his experience serving as second-in-command to Parson, who ascended to the governor's mansion after the resignation of the disgraced Eric Greitens, but Ashcroft's name recognition from his father and combined support from both the populist "kingmaker" of the current dominant wing of the GOP as well as the former standard bearer of the 2000s-era GOP (notwithstanding the elder Ashcroft's more strident conservatism in comparison to his former boss) proved to be too much for Kehoe to overcome. Jay Ashcroft will now face 2016 U.S. Senate nominee and former Secretary of State Jason Kander (the younger Ashcroft's successor), who once considered a run for Kansas City Mayor and even a run for President before PTSD and depression concerns stemming from his Army National Guard days caused him to voluntary drop out and has since become a prominent veterans' advocate.

While Missouri was the source of much political activity in the heartland on Tuesday night, neighboring Kansas had a vastly uneventful primary on Tuesday; with no gubernatorial or Senate race at stake this year, all of the state's four Republican members of Congress are heavy favorites for reelection, with one exception. That exception is none other than first-termer Amanda Adkins, whose suburban Kansas City-based 3rd District will see a challenge from State Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes, one of a number of former Republicans in the Kansas Legislature from the area who switched parties over the years, who is being touted as one of the DCCC's top candidates of the cycle.

August 6, 2024
RACES FOR GOVERNOR, SENATE SET IN WASHINGTON STATE
Voters in Washington state selected their nominees for Governor, Senate and other seats down ballot including a number of open and competitive congressional seats on Tuesday night, including two seats being vacated by candidates for an open Senate seat, two other seats in the Puget Sound region where Democrats are favored, a swing district in the suburbs east of Seattle picked up by Republicans in 2022, and a pair of Republican-held seats held by two of the four remaining Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial after the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

In the race for Governor, three-term Gov. Jay Inslee is seeking a record fourth term as Governor, with the Democrat set to face Chris Vance, a former state GOP Chairman who served during that state's controversial 2004 gubernatorial election and since 2017 became an Independent and vocal "Never Trump" activist critical of the former President. Vance (who earned 19 percent ahead of three Republican challengers) outpolled several other Republicans and two Democrats who ran to the left of Inslee in the all-party primary; like California, the top two candidates in the races on Tuesday's primary ballot advance to the general election. The race for Senate was also set on Tuesday, with two Congresswomen from opposite ends of the Cascades - Rep. Suzan DelBene from the north suburban Seattle-based 1st District and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers from the Spokane-based 5th District - set to face each other in November. Though McMorris Rodgers placed first with 42 percent of the vote and near-unified Republican support, the race is effectively DelBene's to lose as she beat three other Democratic challengers with far less support and 36 percent of the vote overall to earn second place; Democrats combined for 54 percent of the vote in the Senate race, slightly less than Gov. Inslee's 57 percent.

House races in Washington state were also set for November, with Democrats favored in both DelBene's open 1st (where State Rep. Manka Dhingra is favored to become the nation's first Sikh Congresswoman against a nominal GOP opponent who finished less than one percent ahead of another Democrat) and the open Everett-to-Bellingham-based 2nd District of retiring Rep. Rick Larsen (where Bellingham Mayor Seth Fleetwood is favored in November against Republican State Rep. Greg Gilday despite Gilday finishing first in primary balloting), while winning both "top two" slots in the open, diverse 9th District stretching from southeast Seattle to such liberal inner southern suburbs as Bellevue, Mercer Island, Kent and Federal Way. The latter district, where longtime Rep. Adam Smith is retiring, will pit liberal Seattle City Council member Tammy Morales against Smith's endorsed candidate, Federal Way Mayor Jim Ferrell (a former candidate for King County Prosecutor who switched from Republican to Democrat in the midst of Smith's 14-term congressional tenure).

Democrats also nominated trial lawyer and former King County prosecuting attorney Jason Rittereiser against first-term Republican Reagan Dunn in the east suburban Seattle 8th District that stretches as far east as Wenatchee and Ellensburg (east of the Cascades in central Washington), State Senate Majority Leader Andy Billig (who also co-owns the Spokane Indians minor league baseball team) against Spokane County Treasurer and 2012 Senate nominee Michael Baumgartner in the 5th District being vacated by McMorris Rodgers, and State Rep. Monica Stonier in the southwest-based 3rd District, which includes Vancouver and other mostly suburban and rural areas across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon.

The 3rd will see a new incumbent as Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of the two Washington state Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in his second impeachment trial, finished third behind Stonier and 2022 Republican challenger and former Green Beret Joe Kent, who lost to the incumbent in 2022 in an all-Republican race where Herrera Beutler won over 60 percent including near-unanimous support from Democrats. Kent, a technology manager and former Army officer who is a widower of a naval officer killed overseas in 2019, vowed a rematch shortly after losing to Herrera Beutler in 2022, while Democrats became emboldened after the incumbent voted for over 90 percent of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's agenda. Washington's other apostate Republican on the second impeachment vote against Trump, Rep. Dan Newhouse, did prevail to November, but will face a fierce challenge from 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley, a former nurse-turned-veterans' advocate who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Patty Murray and is now running against Newhouse with support from Trump; unlike Newhouse's 2022 challenger Loren Culp, who was Gov. Inslee's 2020 GOP opponent but became dogged by controversial statements that ultimately doomed him against Newhouse in the latter's last election, Smiley is considered a far-less controversial opponent and has outraised Newhouse in fundraising since declaring her candidacy.

Up next: There is one other state whose primary was held this evening in this TL. That state, Arizona, has gone to overtime because of one particular race...

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue on, first let me congratulate Milwaukee on landing the 2024 Republican National Convention in real life. The road to Milwaukee is on for the GOP. As for the TL and what's going on in one particular state, here's a little something to tide one over...

August 7, 2024
ARIZONA DEMOCRATS CHOOSE SIDE IN SENATE SHOWDOWN; GOP PRIMARY WAY TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The results from Tuesday night's primaries in Arizona proved to be a nailbiter, but most especially the case for Republicans looking to take on first-term Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, without any clear indication that she would even prevail in her primary against a more progressive challenger. Sinema's opposition to a number of Biden administration priorities, as well as her opposition to removing the filibuster, made her a target of the far left with Rep. Ruben Gallego abandoning his fail-safe Democratic Phoenix congressional seat (the 3rd District in central Phoenix) to challenge the moderate Sinema. Indeed, early polling indicated that Sinema was vulnerable, with Gallego polling well ahead of her in 2021. However, Sinema worked the campaign to buttress her progressive bonafides, while also highlighting her successes in "delivering results for Arizona". But was it enough in the end?

The answer, in a nutshell, was a very close yes. On Tuesday night, Sinema came from behind to vanquish Gallego with 46 percent of the vote to her progressive challenger's 43 percent. Sinema's victory was fueled by her strong support in Northern Arizona, including such communities as Prescott and Lake Havasu City where she won upwards of 60 percent of the vote, as well as around 55 percent in most suburban areas around Maricopa County including parts of Phoenix. Gallego kept the race close by performing strongly in heavily Democratic Hispanic areas of the state, including his political base in central Phoenix as well as in Tucson and in both the Navajo Nation and White liberal bastions such as Flagstaff and Sedona that were some of Gallego's bright spots further north of the Valley.

"Last year, they thought we were dead in the water. Tonight, we have proven that results and decorum matter more than cheap soundbites and bitter harassment from amateurs who think even invading your privacy in the bathroom is 'cute', except it isn't!", said Sinema to her supporters at a watch party in Phoenix (and perhaps alluding to an incident where far-left protestors chased her into a bathroom stall back in 2021). The Arizona maverick also took time to "call on those who voted for Ruben Gallego to join me and help us defeat whichever Republican prevails on the other side", while Gallego at his own watch party across town thanked his supporters for "holding Kyrsten Sinema's feet to the fire where it needed to be" and implored the crowd "vote for Democrats up and down the ballot and send Madam President Harris to the White House".

As for "whichever Republican" Sinema will now face, that answer is up in the air. With over 90 percent of the vote in, the result is razor-thin with Rep. David Schweikert polling 28.01 percent, fellow Rep. Andy Biggs at 27.98 percent, and fellow Rep. Paul Gosar at 26.03 percent. Nine other Republicans, including one who is a Confederate sympathizer calling for Arizona to "secede from the Union", another who is an ardent devotee of former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and a third who is a registered sex offender that supports "decriminalizing NAMBLA", received the remaining 17.98 percent. However, the one crowing the most about voter fraud is Gosar, who crowed during his watch party in Buckeye that "once again the Arizona Republican establishment has disappointed us by allowing two establishment Republicans to steal the election from patriots like you and me". Both Schweikert and Biggs dismissed the voter fraud allegations, with Schweikert reminding his supporters in Scottsdale that "every vote is going to be counted, and when the tally is complete I am confident we will be ahead" and Biggs "calling on all patriots to stick together as we figure out who's on top" at his watch party in Mesa. While candidates cannot request a recount by Arizona law, an automatic recount is triggered if the result (in the case of a U.S. Senate race with over 800,000 Republican primary votes) between the top two candidates is less than one-tenth of a percent.

As for the state's congressional races, including five open seats (only one of which is not related to the Senate race), the results were relatively less dramatic. In Gallego's open 3rd District (which covers much of downtown and south Phoenix including the Encanto and South Mountain neighborhoods), Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor defeated former State Sen. Martín Quezada and fellow Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari (both of whom ran to her left) to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to election in the 3-1 Democratic district (which in turn was represented by her father, the late Ed Pastor, for 24 years until Gallego succeeded him upon his retirement in 2014), while former State Rep. Daniel Hernández Jr. (who lost in the then-open 6th District to Rep. Juan Ciscomani in 2022 but is perhaps best known for his role in the 2011 Tucson mass shooting where he fought to save his critically wounded boss, then-Rep. Gabby Giffords) defeated three other Democrats to win his party's nomination in the 7th District of retiring Rep. Raúl Grijalva; unlike the situation with the neighboring 6th (a historical swing district in more affluent northern and eastern parts of Tucson and southeast Arizona), Hernandez (who is also of Mexican Jewish descent and openly gay) is heavily favored to win in November in this majority Hispanic district connecting Tucson, Yuma and a sliver of Maricopa County southwest of Phoenix.

Both parties also selected nominees in four GOP-held districts the DCCC is targeting to various degrees, even though the races are Republicans' to lose. In Schweikert's north Phoenix and Scottsdale-based 1st District, former State Rep. Shawnna Bolick (whose husband, Arizona Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, is a longtime friend of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas) won the Republican primary on the strength of her support from conservatives and "election truthers" that have become kingmakers in GOP primaries in Arizona. Bolick, who unsuccessfully ran for the GOP nod for Secretary of State in 2022 against Mark Finchem, will now face another former State Rep. and unsuccessful 2022 primary candidate in Aaron Lieberman, who dropped out of the running for Governor on the Democratic side (Sec. of State Katie Hobbs eventually won that primary and the Governor's mansion). Democrats also nominated their candidate in the 4th District of freshman Republican Rep. Tanya Wheeless, who narrowly defeated Rep. and former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton in 2022. As Stanton chose not to run for his old seat, Democrats instead turned to State Rep. and Democratic organizer Jennifer Jermaine, who is Native American and belongs to the Minnesota-based White Earth Nation tribe.

Freshmen Reps. Walt Blackman and Juan Ciscomani also found out their Democratic challengers on Tuesday, with State Sen. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton taking on Ciscomani in the suburban Tucson-based 6th District and Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez taking on Blackman in the Northern Arizona-based 2nd District which includes Flagstaff, much of Pinal County and the Grand Canyon. And in the heavily Republican districts of Biggs and Gosar, the GOP selected its nominees who are heavily favored to win their heavily Republican districts, with State House Speaker Travis Grantham winning the GOP nod in the 5th District (based in the East Valley including parts of Mesa, Gilbert and San Tan Valley) and former state GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward winning a competitive race for her party's nomination in the 9th District stretching from western Maricopa County to western Arizona including Lake Havasu City.

August 10, 2024
HAWAII HOLDS PRIMARIES FOR SENATE, CONGRESSIONAL SEAT IN HONOLULU
While most of the country was tuned in to medal competitions at the Olympics in Paris and NFL preseason games, Hawaiians were tuned in to their news stations to watch results of the primaries for the state's open Senate seat as well as the 1st District based in Honolulu and most of surrounding Oahu. Given the state's large Democratic lean (President Biden won the state convincingly in 2020), much of the focus has been on the Democratic primary for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Mazie Hirono, in particular the primary battle between Rep. Ed Case and former Rep. Kai Kahele, who lost the battle for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Lieutenant Gov. and eventual winner Josh Green. While Kahele has focused most of his 2024 Senate bid on redemption for the last cycle, the same also holds true for Case - who unsuccessfully sought the same Senate seat Hirono now holds in 2006 and 2012 (the latter a losing effort to Hirono).

In the end, the more progressive Kahele defeated Case with 54 percent of the vote, as advertisements from Kahele and progressive groups attacking Case for his role in the "Unbreakable Nine" - a group of moderate to conservative-leaning Democrats who created headaches for President Biden on such matters as infrastructure and social spending related to the President's "Build Back Better" plan during the first two years of the Biden administration, proved too much to handle for the venerable Case. Despite ads from Case's camp tying Kahele to radical leftists and left-leaning groups, the progressive base was still not impressed enough and Kahele prevailed in the end. While there had been talk of Case running for the Senate as a Republican early on, Case ultimately chose not to switch parties and ruled out any possibility of substituting eventual GOP nominee Laura Nakanelua (who had resigned from her post as the state's National Committeewoman to run for Senate), leaving this seat effectively Kahele's to lose.

Case's defeat leaves Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Jim Costa of California as the only remaining members of the "Unbreakable Nine" left, with only Costa's reelection certain (though a former member, Stephanie Murphy of Florida, is the leading contender for the Democrats in Florida against Sen. Rick Scott). Carolyn Bourdeaux of Georgia and Kurt Schrader of Oregon both lost in their party's primaries in 2022 (with the former losing to fellow Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath and the latter's seat flipping to the GOP), while Jared Golden of Maine lost to Bruce Poliquin (who lost his reelection in 2018 to Golden) that year and Gonzalez's fellow Texan Henry Cuellar is retiring.

The race for Case's open congressional seat was also set on Saturday, with Republicans nominating State Rep. and former Miss Hawaii Lauren Matsumoto to take on the winner of the crowded Democratic primary, progressive State Rep. Sonny Ganaden. Though Ganaden is viewed as more liberal than the average Democrat in this state, the state's Democratic dominance (both this and the 2nd District covering the rest of Oahu and the islands from Hilo and Maui to Kauai went 2-1 for Biden) is enough for this to be Ganaden's race to lose. The state's other Congresswoman, Rep. Jill Tokuda, is heavily favored to win a second term in the 2nd District.

August 11, 2024
"NOT LEFT. NOT RIGHT. FORWARD.": YANG DEBUTS AD CAMPAIGN AS FORWARD PARTY ACHIEVES BALLOT ACCESS IN ALL 50 STATES
While Americans were tuned in to the closing ceremony of the Summer Olympics in Paris, which once again was dominated by the United States despite a strong showing from host country France, Germany and China, one of the ads broadcast during commercial breaks involved a decent amount of new age imagery and accompanying music, complete with nerdy political jargon about concepts like ranked-choice voting, cryptocurrency, term limits and a newfound concept called "Democracy Dollars".

The voice in the background of the two-minute commercial? Andrew Yang.

"The two parties in this country have fundamentally failed us. It is time for a new movement, with new ideas for a new America that is free from the bounds of cultural binds and the outdated economics that are failing our future generations. The answer is simple: Not Left. Not Right. Forward.", Yang announced as his candidacy for the Forward Party, ongoing as the two parties sorted out their congressional battles and their respective presidential nominees, Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democrats and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the Republicans, began to take shape over the summer as the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and businessman who founded Venture for America decided to seek the presidential nomination shortly after Harris clinched the Democratic nomination last March, formally launching his campaign in early May with enough time to obtain ballot access in all 50 states - a feat that was achieved last Wednesday with the party gaining ballot access in the state of Massachusetts.

Yang's presidential campaign will emphasize a generally liberal platform with a slew of reform-minded proposals, including a market-based economy with a robust social safety net and metrics to track progress, ranked-choice voting in all 50 states, the transfer of congressional redistricting responsibilities to a national redistricting commission, an expansion of Congress based on the cube root theory, automatic tax filing, the creation of a Department of Technology, the further implementation of cryptocurrency in federal spending, and a new concept called "Democracy Dollars" - financial credits given by individuals to donate to candidates of their choice, thereby drowning out the influence of special interests and wealthy donors in political campaigns. While Yang has not selected a vice presidential running mate, Yang has not ruled out the possibility of selecting a Republican to join him on the ticket, with former Maryland Gov. and recent presidential candidate Larry Hogan and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger amongst the names being floated.

Unsurprisingly, both parties dismissed this news as "wishful thinking". Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison dismissed Yang as "a flash in the pan whose platform is nothing more than a poor man's Ross Perot presidential campaign", while Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel reemphasized her point that "third parties ultimately have never been successful at the ballot box, and at the end of the day voters will recognize there is only one true alternative to the current political establishment, and that alternative is Ron DeSantis!" Former President Donald Trump also dismissed the buzz surrounding Yang's campaign as "a ripoff of MAGA in Hillary clothes" while also expressing that "the more Yang talks about his BS, the better it looks for Ron DeSantis and his glorious patriots!"

Yang is far from the only third-party presidential candidate seeking support in this year's election. The Constitution Party will feature the ticket of businessman Mike Lindell and attorney Jenna Ellis (both central figures in Trump's infamous election fraud crusade after the 2020 election), while the Libertarian Party has nominated comedian Dave Smith and the Green Party has nominated Norman Solomon, a journalist and progressive activist from California who has become critical of Harris and the Democratic establishment. Radio shock jock Howard Stern and actor Dwayne Johnson (aka "The Rock") had also explored presidential runs as independents, but ultimately chose not to run with Stern having already hosted Smith on his SiriusXM radio show and The Rock (who endorsed Joe Biden in 2020) undecided on who to support, a surprising fact given Kamala Harris being from the same state as the actor.

Up next: the DeSantis veepstakes, the latest on Arizona and some primary action in the heart of Packers (and Vikings) country...

[SaintStan86]

August 12, 2024
DeSANTIS REPORTEDLY HAS PICK AS REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION SCHEDULE RELEASED
On Monday, a campaign spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis reportedly stated to The Wall Street Journal that the presumptive Republican nominee has selected his running mate, which is set to be revealed on Saturday at an upcoming rally to be held "in a crucial swing county in a critical state". DeSantis has been criss-crossing the country with multiple visits to such states as Nevada, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with a sold-out arena rally in Charlotte, North Carolina last week drawing a capacity crowd with gubernatorial candidate and Lieutenant Gov. Mark Robinson and others in attendance. The campaign shows definitely no signs of slowing down, with a full itinerary booked through Friday, indeed indicating that his schedule will be blocked out for the weekend.

The news of DeSantis having selected his pick comes as the Republican National Convention schedule was released recently, with former President Donald Trump set to speak on the first night of the convention next Monday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, followed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Rep. and U.S. Senate nominee Dan Crenshaw as the keynote speakers on Tuesday night, with the Vice Presidential running mate set to speak on Wednesday night and presumptive nominee Ron DeSantis (whose nomination is set to be made a formality on Tuesday during the delegate vote) set to cap off the convention on Thursday night.

Speakers for Republican National Convention (subject to change; order is approximate in most cases)

Monday, August 19th: Your Life Matters (emphasizing cultural and patriotism issues)

• Wisconsin Gov. Tim Michels and his state's GOP congressional delegation will open the convention
• Sens. Chuck Grassley (IA), John Neely Kennedy (LA), Tommy Tuberville (AL) and Herschel Walker (GA)
• Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya (MN), nominee for U.S. Senate
• Veteran NFL announcer Al Michaels, who will introduce Tafoya
• Sen. Kelly Tshibaka (AK)
• Rep. Harriet Hageman (WY)
• State Sen. Mike Martucci (NY), nominee for U.S. Senate
• Sens. James Lankford (OK) and Ted Cruz (TX), who will introduce a tribute to Norma McCorvey, also known as "Jane Roe", the namesake plaintiff in Roe v. Wade who eventually became pro-life in her later years before her death in 2017
• Sens. Marsha Blackburn (TN) and Mike Lee (UT)
• U.S. Rep. Sarah Palin (AK)
• U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA), nominee for U.S. Senate
• Former Senior Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway
• Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (AR)
• Former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany
• Florida Lt. Gov. Jeannette Nuñez
• Former White House Director of Social Media Dan Scavino
• Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump, sons of the former President
• Gov. Eric Holcomb (IN)
• Former Vice President Mike Pence
• Former President Donald J. Trump (final speech of night)

Tuesday, August 20th: Your Future Matters (emphasizing fiscal and economic issues)

• Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
• Former Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia
• Former Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette
• Former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos
• Former Trump economic advisers Larry Kudlow and Peter Navarro
• Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn of Texas
• Senate Majority Whip John Thune of South Dakota
• Sens. Rick Scott (FL), Mike Crapo (ID), Rand Paul (KY), Deb Fischer (NE), Ben Sasse (NE), Ted Budd (NC), Markwayne Mullin (OK), Bill Hagerty (TN) and Ron Johnson (WI)
• Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (CA), candidate for U.S. Senate
• State Sen. Rick Bennett (ME), nominee for U.S. Senate
• U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale (MT-02), nominee for U.S. Senate
• Former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (VT), nominee for U.S. Senate
• West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, nominee for U.S. Senate
• TBD, nominee for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin (either Rep. Scott Fitzgerald or Rep. Mike Gallagher; to be featured before keynote speaker)
• State Sen. Jill Vogel (VA), nominee for U.S. Senate (will also introduce keynote speaker)
• Gov. Glenn Youngkin (VA, keynote speaker)
• Barron Trump, son of former President Donald Trump
• Most GOP governors except for ones listed on other nights
• Former U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita (IN), nominee for Governor
• Missouri Sec. of State Jay Ashcroft, nominee for Governor
• Candidate for Governor Chris Vance (WA, running as an independent, but endorsed by Republicans)
• Candidate for Governor Chris Miller (WV)
• Former First Lady of the United States Melania Trump
• First Lady of Florida Casey DeSantis

Wednesday, August 21st: Your Country Matters (emphasizing foreign policy and national security)

• Sens. Katie Britt (AL), Tom Cotton (AR), Marco Rubio (FL), Todd Young (IN), Joni Ernst (IA) and Don Bolduc (NH)
• Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott of South Carolina, along with the state's GOP congressional delegation
• Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, candidate for U.S. Senate in California
• Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, nominee for U.S. Rep. in Texas's 5th District
• U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), nominee for U.S. Senate
• U.S. Senate nominee Sam Brown (NV)
• Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
• Gov. Joe Lombardo (NV)
• Gov. Henry McMaster (SC)
• North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, nominee for Governor
• Gov. Tudor Dixon (MI)
• Gov. Christine Drazan (OR)
• Gov. Kristi Noem (SD)
• Ivanka Trump, daughter of former President Donald Trump
• TBD, nominee for Vice President

Thursday, August 22nd: Your Freedom Matters (based on the DeSantis campaign hashtag and slogan, "Freedom Matters")

• Most of Florida's GOP congressional delegation will speak
• Entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, along with Chick-fil-A Chairman Dan Cathy, TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk and former Ambassador and majority owner of the New York Jets Woody Johnson, will also speak
• Sens. Mike Braun (IN), Dan Sullivan (AK), Eric Schmitt (MO) and J.D. Vance (OH)
• U.S. Rep. and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (OH-04), nominee for U.S. Senate
• Tiffany Trump, daughter of former President Donald Trump
• Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson
• Sen. Daniel Cameron (KY)
• U.S. Rep. John James (MI-10), nominee for U.S. Senate
• U.S. Senate nominees Dave McCormick (PA), Dr. Mehmet Öz (NJ) and Mark Ronchetti (NM)
• Govs. Greg Abbott (TX), Kay Ivey (AL) and Brian Kemp (GA)
• Sen. Adam Laxalt of Nevada (second-to-last speaker of the night)
• Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, presumptive Republican nominee (last speaker of the convention)

Notably absent from the list is Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, former Ambassador Nikki Haley and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, among other potential running mate candidates. The release of the schedule, though, with the traditional third night of the convention in which the Vice Presidential running mate speaks emphasizing national security matters and featuring Ivanka Trump as a speaker portending that Haley or another national security-oriented candidate is DeSantis's likely choice, as many argued that such a candidate would likely complement the Governor's largely domestic focus in Tallahassee - a fact emphasized when DeSantis himself hesitated to light up the Sunshine Skyway Bridge over Tampa Bay in the colors of the Ukrainian flag during the height of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another factor is the strong push to nominate a woman as his Vice President, not just to counter the gender gap that afflicted Trump's 2020 reelection bid, but also to push the "best over first" notion with regards to the position in that any female running mate would be "far more emblematic of empowering women" as opposed to Kamala Harris.

August 13, 2024
CRUCIAL SENATE RACES IN MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN SET FOR NOVEMBER
Voters on Tuesday selected their nominees for Senate and congressional races, plus hundreds of downballot state and local races, in Minnesota and Wisconsin as both states are set to be battlegrounds in this year's elections. The biggest race to watch for the GOP was in Wisconsin, where a competitive Senate primary for the nomination to take on two-term Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was decided between two members of Congress on opposite ends of the Lake Michigan shoreline. In that race, Rep. Mike Gallagher of the Green Bay-based 8th District fended off a surging challenge from Rep. Scott Fitzgerald, who represents the 5th District in Milwaukee's western suburbs, 45 percent to 40 percent. While Fitzgerald won the suburban WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee and Gallagher dominated his political base in Green Bay and the Fox Cities, the latter prevailed narrowly in much of the rest of Wisconsin despite Fitzgerald's statewide name recognition from his much ballyhooed days as a key player in then-Gov. Scott Walker's 2011 legislative showdown that resulted in several recall elections.

At his watch party in Green Bay near the Green Bay Packers' storied Lambeau Field, Gallagher (appropriately wearing a green and gold tie) thanked his enthusiastic supporters and vowed "it's only halftime, and we are moving full steam ahead to take out Tammy Baldwin", while Fitzgerald remarked "If there's one thing that matters in this race, it's that without our strong pushback against some of his lesser votes, Mike Gallagher wouldn't have moved the needle to the side of us patriots, and he will need us to take out 'Toxic Tammy Baldwin' in November!" at his watch party in Waukesha County. Baldwin, in speaking to her supporters in Madison, vowed a "full-fledged campaign to shut down the DeSantis-Gallagher disinformation machine that puts corporations and bigots ahead of Wisconsin families".

Wisconsin voters also chose congressional nominees in both of the candidates' respective districts, with GOP State Sen. André Jacque (whose survival story from a bout of COVID-19 so bad at one point he was put on a ventilator proved to be compelling for voters) set to take on Democratic Green Bay Mayor Eric Genrich and business consultant and former Senate and gubernatorial candidate Kevin Nicholson winning a crowded GOP primary in the 5th, where he will be a strong favorite in what has long been the state's most Republican district against former State Rep. Sara Rodriguez, who was then-Gov. Tony Evers' running mate in 2022 and is arguably the strongest candidate the Democrats have run here in decades. Democrats also nominated candidates in two marginal districts, nominating Alex Eveland, a longtime staffer for former Rep. Ron Kind who eventually rose to Chief of Staff in Kind's final term, against Kind's freshman successor Rep. Derrick Van Orden, and State Asw. Greta Neubauer in the southeast-based 1st District of three-term Republican Bryan Steil, who succeeded former House Speaker Paul Ryan in 2018.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota where former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya easily won her Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat of departing Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the DFL side of the ledger was a high-stakes affair. In the end, strong endorsements from progressive groups and Gov. Tim Walz ultimately carried Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to victory, winning 30 percent of the vote to 26 percent apiece for longtime former Attorney General Lori Swanson and U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips; both attempted to portray Flanagan as "too liberal for Minnesota", but Phillips especially faced pushback from progressives who relentlessly attacked Phillips as a "corporate Democrat" as well as a scorched-earth ad by the Flanagan camp accusing Phillips of "taking the side of Derek Chauvin" in his trial for the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which led PolitiFact to issue Flanagan a "Pants on Fire" rating. Flanagan, speaking to her supporters in Minneapolis, proclaimed "We are going to defend Amy Klobuchar's seat, with a solid progressive who always has had Minnesota's back versus a carnival barker who only spouts noise". At her watch party in Bloomington Tafoya remarked "Of course we know why Peggy Flanagan is desperate - because the people of Minnesota are waking up and we are going to flip this blue state red in November!"

While Minnesota will have a number of competitive congressional contests in November, the biggest primary action Tuesday was in a safe blue seat - the open 4th District of retiring DFL incumbent Betty McCollum based in the state capital of St. Paul and surrounding Ramsey County. In that district, St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter won a five-way race in the DFL primary and will be heavily favored to win the 4th District in November, though the even more heavily liberal Minneapolis-based 5th District also saw a competitive DFL primary of its own, as controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar survived her own primary against well-funded opposition critical of her hard-left views and controversial statements (one of them comparing presumptive GOP nominee Ron DeSantis to Axis-era fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini). Other DFL candidates nominated include State Rep. Liz Boldon in the southern-based 1st District based in Rochester and Mankato (against GOP incumbent Brad Finstad, Duluth Mayor Emily Larson in the Duluth-based 8th District, State Rep. Jess Hanson in the south suburban Twin Cities 2nd District held by freshman Rep. Tyler Kistner, and former State Senate Minority Leader Melisa Franzen in Phillips' 3rd District in the western Twin Cities suburbs including the vicinity of Lake Minnetonka, where she will face GOP State Sen. Julia Coleman, daughter-in-law of former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman.

August 15, 2024
ARIZONA GOP SENATE BATTLE WILL GO TO OVERTIME AS GOSAR LASHES OUT
With virtually all of the votes counted in the razor-thin primary for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate against recently renominated Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the margins between Reps. David Schweikert (27.62 percent) and Andy Biggs (27.58 percent) are so close that an automatic recount has been officially declared in the race by Secretary of State Mark Finchem. One of a number of controversial GOP Secretaries of State nominated in the 2022 midterms (despite the gubernatorial race flipping to the Democrats that same year in Arizona), Finchem has been a steadfast "election truther" who considers the 2020 presidential result in the state to be "stolen" from Donald Trump. When asked about whether or not the recount will be completed in time for Arizona Republicans to unite in what is expected to be a very high-stakes Senate battle with Sinema, a maverick Democrat who just fended off her own primary challenge against liberal Rep. Ruben Gallego, Finchem vowed a "fully fair and transparent audit of all files and paper trails" in securing the GOP nominee.

The recount's declaration comes as the third-place finisher in the primary, conservative Rep. Paul Gosar (26.11 percent) took direct aim at his rivals for "having attempted to use false smears against our grassroots, America First campaign to drive voters away from my candidacy", but most especially Schweikert whose endorsement from former Gov. Doug Ducey did not go over well with Gosar. "If there's any Republican who fits the DC swamp mold to a T, it's Doug Ducey, and David Schweikert's reliance on him to prop up his flailing campaign and attack ours is downright uncouth of him". Schweikert, meanwhile, called Gosar a "sore loser who will never catch up to me or Andy (Biggs)" and also implored Finchem to invalidate the votes of a candidate who appears to be a card-carrying member of NAMBLA, apparently unaware that Arizona does not use ranked-choice voting for its primaries. Both Schweikert and Biggs along with Gosar are expected to be in Milwaukee next week at the Republican National Convention, though given the closeness of the results and its uncertain fate it is unclear if any of the candidates will speak.

On the next post: DeSantis's veep pick is revealed...

[SaintStan86]

August 16, 2024
DeSANTIS RALLY SET FOR SATURDAY NEAR HOUSTON; AIRPORT SECURED FOR VEEP PICK
A wealthy Houston suburb known in political circles as the hometown of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay is set to take center stage on Saturday when Florida Gov. and presumptive Republican nominee Ron DeSantis descends on the Houston suburb of Sugar Land, Texas where he will be joined by his vice presidential running mate. DeSantis spox Christina Pushaw noted that following the announcement made on Wednesday, interest has been exceptionally high in tickets for the rally which sold out within 15 minutes, and also took note that DeSantis's nominee is "aimed at countering the gender gap that affected Donald Trump's 2020 reelection bid against Joe Biden". The rally will take place at Constellation Field, the home field of the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (the Triple-A affiliate of Major League Baseball's Houston Astros) and a seemingly appropriate venue for DeSantis, a former Yale baseball standout who once played in the 1991 Little League World Series.

The venue is also appropriately located directly east of Sugar Land Regional Airport, the largest commuter and business travel-focused airport serving the Houston area and a popular location for many domestic and international charter flights in and out of Houston. Sugar Land Mayor Joe Zimmerman ordered the closure of the airport "between midnight and 30 minutes after the rally is concluded" in order to secure the property from potential security threats, while also acknowledging that "Saturday is going to be a historic day for the City of Sugar Land, as we will be an eyewitness to history, and I will be there to witness Gov. Ron DeSantis and others introducing his running mate to the whole United States". In addition to Zimmerman, other dignitaries expected to be in attendance include Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, U.S. Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, U.S. Senate nominee Dan Crenshaw, virtually all of Houston's GOP congressional delegation including Troy Nehls and his twin brother, Fort Bend County Judge Trever Nehls, and even the venerable DeLay himself, among others. The rally is expected to take place at 10 a.m. Central time, which translates into 11 a.m. in New York City and 8 a.m. in Los Angeles. Fox News Channel host Laura Ingraham will be anchoring Friday night from Sugar Land's town square in front of its City Hall, and will be joined tonight by several other guests as well.

August 17, 2024

It is now 7 a.m. in Houston...

On CBS Saturday Morning...
JEFF GLOR: Welcome to the weekend, everyone! I'm Jeff Glor here with Michelle Miller and Dana Jacobson on this Saturday, August the 17th from right here in Times Square, looking live now at Sugar Land, Texas, outside of Houston where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is set to announce his pick for Vice President as the presumptive Republican nominee prepares to head to Milwaukee for this week's Republican National Convention...

DANA JACOBSON: Also this morning, we'll be taking you on a special trip to Easter Island in the middle of the South Pacific, where beneath the indigenous villages and iconic Moais lies never before seen treasure on a scuba diving expedition...

MICHELLE MILLER: Straight from the heart of Vermont, a unique twist on northern Thai cuisine from James Beard-award winning chef Nisachon Morgan. We'll have her here in studio with iconic selections from her Thai beer garden, Saap.

JEFF GLOR: And we'll hear from Vampire Weekend's Ezra Koenig on his breathtaking solo project, which we'll be giving you a first listen of in this week's Saturday Sessions.

MICHELLE MILLER: But we begin this morning with breaking news on the presidential campaign trail. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is set to announce his running mate for the Republican presidential ticket at a minor league ballpark near Houston this morning, and already word is spreading that two particularly notable candidates for Vice President, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota have been ruled out in the consideration for Vice President.

BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Josh Hawley is having breakfast with his family at their "home away from home" in northern Virginia, with a Twitter post showing his family cozying up to the TV preparing to watch the reveal. In other words, Hawley is out.

BREAKING NEWS: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin reiterates once again "I have not been selected to be Ron DeSantis's nominee, but make no mistake I'm very pleased with his decision. I'm going to let him do the talking."

8 a.m....

Over on a special edition of Washington Journal on C-SPAN...
ANCHOR: OK, as we continue to await word from outside of Houston on the selection of Ron DeSantis's running mate, we'd like to take this time to give you the viewer the opportunity to call in or share about your thoughts on DeSantis's impending selection on our Open Forum. The numbers on the screen are, 202-748-8000 for Democrats, 202-748-8001 for Republicans, 202-748-8002 for Independents, and 202-748-8003 for viewers outside the U.S. The lines are open now and your thoughts are greatly appreciated...

BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Ted Cruz: "Getting ready early this morning to stand with Gov. Ron DeSantis and his running mate!"

BREAKING NEWS: Several planes exclusively linked to the rally have arrived at Sugar Land Regional Airport, but much of the focus has been on a flight that left "early in the morning" from "somewhere in the Southeast".

BREAKING NEWS: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds informs the Des Moines Register, "I'm not anywhere near Texas this morning".

BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Adam Laxalt: "Here outside Houston with my good friend Ron DeSantis and some Shipley Do-Nuts...wish we had these on the Strip!"

On local Houston radio station KTRH, where a special edition of their weekday morning newscast is airing...
JIMMY BARRETT: Glad to have you with us on this special edition of Houston's Morning News, as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis descends on Sugar Land to announce his pick for Vice President on the Republican ticket. I'm Jimmy Barrett.
SHARA FRYER: And I'm Shara Fryer. This just in to the KTRH newsroom...Jimmy, it appears that a charter flight has reportedly arrived at Sugar Land Regional Airport, just across the street from Constellation Field, with a tail number registered to a plane based somewhere in South Carolina. Whether or not it could possibly be Nikki Haley, that's really up to Ron DeSantis to say, not anyone else...Maybe Tim Scott, but we shall see.

Lastly, over on Fox & Friends Weekend, just after 8:30 a.m....

Pete Hegseth, Fox & Friends weekend co-host
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Gage Skidmore

(Fox News Alert tone sounds)
PETE HEGSETH: This is a Fox News alert, Gov. Ron DeSantis has chosen his running mate for Vice President of the United States, and it's one of the least surprising names on the short list...

REPUBLICAN PARTY
PRESUMPTIVE VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE


Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: United States Department of State

Nikki Haley, South Carolina
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Former Governor of South Carolina
Former Representative, South Carolina House of Representatives

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Djmaschek

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Stantheman8609

Constellation Field in Sugar Land, Texas, where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis revealed his vice presidential running mate, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, on August 17, 2024

August 17, 2024
BREAKING NEWS: DeSANTIS SELECTS HALEY AS RUNNING MATE: "AMERICA'S BRIGHTEST DAYS ARE AROUND THE CORNER"
On Saturday, Florida Gov. and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis selected former Ambassador Nikki Haley as his vice presidential running mate during a late morning rally at a minor league ballpark in a major Houston suburb. During the rally at Constellation Field, the home of the Houston Astros' Triple-A affiliate in the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, in Sugar Land, Texas, DeSantis introduced the overcapacity crowd of over 20,000 (most of them congregating on the baseball diamond that was transformed into a stage and general admission level for the rally) to the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, who DeSantis called "a woman who truly - and literally - stands for America" before even mentioning her name, for which Haley's own PAC and slogan/primary hashtag from her own GOP presidential bid, Stand for America, proved to be a dead giveaway of sorts to most of the audience.

After being introduced to a thunderous crowd over the loudspeakers playing the 1995 Hootie & the Blowfish hit "Only Wanna Be with You" (ironic considering that the iconic South Carolina band had its roots on the campus of the University of South Carolina - the longtime in-state rival of Haley's alma mater, Clemson University), Haley gave a rousing speech to the audience as she sought to shake off the "elitist" image that Haley was perceived to have adopted during the primaries, in contrast to the Trump-style conservative populism espoused by DeSantis. "Working together, we are going to build a stronger America, both prosperous here at home and peaceful around the world, with liberty and justice for all", Haley proclaimed to the audience. Towards the end of the rally, Haley took direct aim at President Biden on both foreign "We are of course going to stand with Israel and others fighting for democracy, but we're not going to do it by stretching our military and our money thin while we Americans continue to languish" and domestic "The next time Kamala Harris tells you gas prices are getting better, remember what the prices were under Donald Trump BEFORE COVID...because our memories are not short and she's going to be in for some real hell-raising if all she does is get you to forget about anything before COVID", and concluded by merging both her signature slogan and DeSantis's "We are going to promote freedom for America and the world, we are going to build up America and our people, and we are going to Stand for America because Freedom Matters!"

The speech was well-received across the conservative political spectrum, with both establishment and outsider factions alike praising Haley as "a necessary counterbalance to DeSantis's hard edged 'Trump on Decaf' act", "arguably the strongest ticket for the Republicans in decades", "exactly the right ticket to show Republicans they mean business on the world stage" and/or "a clear checkmate on the Democrats' yawning gender gap over the GOP" depending on the Republican at large and the faction. Former President Donald Trump praised the selection despite past misgivings about Haley, "Nikki Haley and I haven't really seen eye to eye since she talked badly about the stolen election, differences on foreign policy, but I have no doubt that she is the strongest person to be standing there next to Ron DeSantis...As she says all the time, she truly does Stand for America and STOOD FOR HER when the totally corrupt and so-called 'United Nations' tried to bully her when she stood tall for Israel, talked tough on China, securing the border, etc. She complements Gov. DeSantis wherever he has weaknesses and strengthens him where's he strong! There are many pretenders on the ballot, but only ONE America First ticket on the ballot this November - the DeSantis-Haley ticket! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

Former President George W. Bush also spoke glowingly of DeSantis's pick of Haley. "Nikki Haley has always been a transformative presence in American politics, and Ron DeSantis made a great choice in selecting her to be his running mate...it clearly refutes the notion that Gov. DeSantis won't be tough on bad foreign actors," noted Bush who continued "Not that DeSantis - who served our country bringing the world's most dangerous terrorists to justice at Guantanamo Bay - isn't the brightest foreign policy mind, but Haley's work defending America at the UN takes the cake". Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also praised DeSantis's pick, "I could not think of someone more qualified to serve as Vice President, ready to marshal the troops in the Senate, than Nikki Haley - this is unapologetically the most pro-American ticket we have ever seen on the ballot!". Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds called DeSantis's selection "a fantastic selection that will create a strong and powerful Republican ticket", while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem noted "There are some things regrettable about Nikki Haley, but I have no doubt that the DeSantis-Haley ticket is going to deliver at the polls for hardworking Americans who have suffered tremendously under Biden & Harris".

Not every Republican spoke glowingly of the move, particularly on the extreme ends of the MAGA spectrum between fringe extremists and hardcore "Never Trumpers". Former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, commenting on CNN, remarked critically of DeSantis's pick "The selection of Nikki Haley is nothing more than a feeble attempt by a kindler, gentler version of Donald Trump to co-opt those who put country before party into thinking that he has their back. At the end of the day, while Haley should be commented for speaking up about the worst indiscretions of Donald Trump, this is still Ron DeSantis calling the shots and that in the end is still unsettling". Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is backing Constitution Party candidate Mike Lindell (having joined that party recently), also expressed disappointment in DeSantis: "Ron DeSantis clearly is nowhere near as America First as Donald Trump, and his pick of Nikki Haley is proof that Christian nationalists will be pushed aside in favor of the old Republican guard that hurt working Americans and their families more than they helped". However, former Vice President Mike Pence called DeSantis's pick of Haley "a slam dunk for the American people and for both religious and personal freedom - it is the most pro-life, pro-family ticket Republicans have ever seen".

Unsurprisingly, the news was unsettling for Democrats. For Jaime Harrison, the Democratic National Committee Chairman who hails from Haley's home state of South Carolina, it is personal. "As Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley's efforts to create a stronger Palmetto State was simply a matter of talk and little - if any - action, and Florida and South Carolina have become stricken by unprecedented levels of economic inequity, social division and partisan plundering more than ever before - because of the actions Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have engaged in as Governors of these states," proclaimed Harrison in a statement. Former Secretary of State and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton also was critical of the move, "The reality about Ron DeSantis's pick of Nikki Haley is nothing more than window dressing to make Republicans appear as if they are the party of women, when the truth is their policies have actually set women back", as was former President Barack Obama who noted "As President, I constantly had to do battle with Republican Governors who sought to erect roadblocks to progress, and Nikki Haley was one of the worst offenders".

Following the conclusion of the rally, DeSantis and Haley began their first barnstorming sessions and campaign trips as a ticket, as both are en route to Milwaukee to appear at the Republican National Convention this coming week. As for Vice President Kamala Harris, no word has emerged as to whether or not she has selected her running mate let alone when she plans to reveal the pick, though it is speculated that Harris intends to reveal her pick for Vice President the weekend after the Republican National Convention, as has been the case for the party in control of the White House in recent years between Republican John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin the day after the Democratic National Convention in 2008 and Clinton's selection of Sen. Tim Kaine (who himself is facing a tough reelection campaign this year) in 2016 less than 24 hours after Trump accepted the GOP nomination at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Regardless of the speculation, Harris is widely expected to have a running mate ready to go before the Democratic National Convention convenes on Monday, August 26th in Houston, just under a half-hour drive from where DeSantis introduced Haley as his running mate.

[SaintStan86]

It's Sunday, August 18th, and the week of the Republican National Convention is upon Americans as Republican delegates prepare to head to Milwaukee to anoint Ron DeSantis as their presidential nominee with the mediocre Biden administration entering its twilight period and Democrats looking for a way to bounce back with Vice President Kamala Harris the following week. But as Republicans block out the coming week for their convention where Donald Trump is expected to pass the baton to DeSantis, a major third-party development has emerged of the Sunday morning talk show pack...

FORWARD PARTY
PRESIDENTIAL TICKET

Andrew Yang of New York Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Gage Skidmore

Adam Kinzinger of Illinois Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: U.S. House of Representatives

August 18, 2024
REPORT: KINZINGER TO JOIN YANG ON "BIPARTISAN, BROAD-BASED" FORWARD PARTY TICKET
On Sunday morning, Forward Party founder and presidential nominee Andrew Yang announced his running mate for his 2024 presidential bid, and the former Democrat and 2021 New York City mayoral candidate's is one that is likely to draw significant attention especially from more moderate Republicans whose most cohesive stance alluded to one of the "darkest days" in modern American history. On CNN's State of the Union, Yang introduced his running mate, former Republican U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a moderate Republican who became best known for his vote to impeach then-President Donald Trump in the second such attempt, as well as his subsequent service on the select January 6th Committee to investigate the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol that warranted Trump's second impeachment. Kinzinger, a self-described "John McCain Republican" who even adopted McCain's 2008 presidential slogan 'Country First' as the name for his super PAC, Country First PAC, expressed his enthusiasm for joining Yang on the presidential campaign trail: "Andrew Yang brought and advocated for bold solutions to the Democratic Party, as I tried to do the same with the Republican Party, and we're excited to join forces to give Americans a great alternative to the prevailing two-party consensus that has divided Americans for too long".

When asked by host Jake Tapper if the ticket will play in Peoria despite their differences in the past, Yang brushed off any rumors of sharp differences by even alluding to a famous duo from Kinzinger's home state. "The American people desire a clear consensus to benefit all Americans regardless of party, and Adam Kinzinger and I are like Siskel & Ebert, whom I'm sure would give our campaign two thumbs up", referring to the famed and late duo of Chicago film critics Gene Siskel & Roger Ebert, whose movie review shows and signature "Two thumbs up!" catchphrase became iconic during the latter part of the 20th century before Siskel's death in 1999 and that of Ebert in 2013. While Kinzinger says he is proud to join the Forward Party, unlike Yang who left the Democratic Party after his ill-fated 2021 campaign for Mayor of New York City, Kinzinger still calls himself a Republican despite his differences with the party on foreign policy as well as perceptions of Trump. Prominent neoconservative Bill Kristol endorsed the ticket following the announcement, calling the Yang-Kinzinger ticket "exactly what America needs at this important moment in time" and urged "all who believe in democracy first to get behind the ticket", while Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin expressed enthusiastic support as well: "This is arguably the best presidential ticket in a very long time".

To no great surprise, both parties effectively gave "two thumbs down" to the ticket. Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison called Yang "an aggravant who wishes to divide the country at a time when Democrats more than ever must work to stop the return of Donald Trump through Ron DeSantis" and urged all Democrats to "unite behind the only candidate that's for the people, and that's Kamala Harris!", while Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel was unmoved by Kinzinger's decision: "Adam Kinzinger's departure from the Republican Party to join a left-leaning third party that has virtually no appeal besides the few Americans who think not taking a stand on the issues that matter is what sells" and stated that "the only person who benefits from Yang's selection of Kinzinger is Governor DeSantis". While the Yang-Kinzinger ticket has obtained ballot access in all 50 states as well as all territories and the District of Columbia, there are no plans to assemble a downballot slate of congressional candidates (which Yang described as impossible) though if the ticket were to somehow become successful or at least get 5 percent or more of the vote, Yang has stated a desire to "build a team of candidates from all backgrounds to run for Congress in 2026".

August 18, 2024
OWENS GATHERS BLEXIT SUPPORTERS IN WISCONSIN, FORMALLY ENDS PRESIDENTIAL BID
While Republicans descended on Milwaukee for their party's convention this coming week to officially nominate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their party's nominee for President, the last remaining Republican alternative of note finally ended her presidential campaign less than two hours northwest of Milwaukee at a high school football stadium in the town of Ripon, Wisconsin - the birthplace of the Republican Party. Commentator Candace Owens gathered over 3,000 supporters of her Blexit movement in Ripon late Sunday afternoon, where she spoke before the large crowd on behalf of her movement to "encourage Black Americans to leave the Democrat plantation behind and join the only party that is truly committed to empowering Black America for a brighter tomorrow".

In addition to serving as a gathering point for Blexit supporters, including many of whom will be attending the convention in Milwaukee this week as delegates, alternates and guests, Owens also ended her longshot presidential campaign: "While this officially marks the end of my presidential campaign, this is the only the beginning for the Blexit movement to take their place in our society and transform the conservative movement like never before". Owens also took direct aim at Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, calling her "an embarrassment to African-Americans who will further divide our country and leave us poorer than ever before" and noting the "irony" of Harris's nomination being "pushed by miserable White liberals and desperate suburban housewives who think that Republicans are 'bigoted, hateful racists' when that argument primarily applies to them as ethnic and religious minorities flocked to Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis".

Though Owens spoke approvingly of DeSantis, she expressed her hope that former President Donald Trump did run in 2024: "Donald Trump is going to be a tough act for Ron DeSantis to follow, and I'm not that certain that DeSantis will be as above his pay grade as Trump was as our greatest President in my lifetime". While Owens remains an influential conservative, particularly amongst fellow Blexit supporters and young conservatives, her influence has been diminished as other Black conservatives have jockeyed for attention, and especially given that Owens' own hard-edged attitude in the culture wars (as well as her "based" attitude in Trump's America First movement) may have turned her off from some conservatives. Once a regular guest on Fox News, Owens has largely relegated herself to minor conservative news channels as well as her own work with Ben Shapiro's The Daily Wire, where she hosts a podcast. Still, Owens plans to attend the Republican National Convention this week, even though she will not be speaking, "I don't have plans to speak, but I will be there as Republicans look to nominate Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley as our ticket for America's future".

"Ladies and gentlemen, the 2024 Republican National Convention, here in the birth state of the Grand Old Party - has now been called to order!" - Gov. Tim Michels of Wisconsin

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Spaluch1

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: SidewalkMD

Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, site of the 2024 Republican National Convention, where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Ambassador Nikki Haley will be nominated as the 2024 Republican presidential ticket.

August 19, 2024
TRUMP SPEAKS TO DELEGATES ON FIRST NIGHT OF REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION
On the first night of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Republicans gathered to set in stone their presidential ticket for the 2024 election as well as their platform - of which none emerged from the 2020 convention in Charlotte that was vastly overhauled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the night being end capped by former President Donald Trump speaking before the packed crowd in Milwaukee. Among the platform fights that emerged included whether or not to continue with Trump's trade policy regarding tariffs on China and Europe (the former remained, while the latter fell by the wayside), as well as tariffs on imported steel (which were narrowly dropped with those advocating for dropping them citing the low percentage of Chinese steel compared to other countries such as Canada, Brazil and Mexico). While Trump did express disappointment with the largely uneconomical tariffs on Europe and imported steel being dropped from the platform, he expressed considerable satisfaction with sanctions on Chinese imports ("Remember when Walmart was all about 'Made in the USA'?") and continued sanctions on China, North Korea and Russia as well as "new and strategic fair trade agreements with Taiwan, Japan and other countries who SHARE OUR VALUES, NOT China's!"

Other platform fights included the degree as to which Republicans are to approach the issue of abortion, with some calling for federalism to take hold where states decide abortion rights free of government intervention and others calling for a total abolition. The party did take a giant leap on the issue of gay marriage, with the platform now striking language calling for homosexuality to continue being pursued as an "abnormal lifestyle" despite objections from social conservatives and Southern states, while also continuing to express strong disapproval towards transgendered women competing in women's sports as well as sharing bathrooms and locker rooms with heterosexual girls and women. The party also moved towards a more libertarian stance on online poker and medical marijuana, endorsing taxing and regulating both like alcohol and tobacco as opposed to the previously controversial stances prohibiting both, while continuing to express reluctant disapproval of recreational use of marijuana and other illicit drugs. The party also reaffirmed support for a Balanced Budget Amendment, reducing the national deficit to pre-2008 TARP levels under $10 trillion, and ending "any remaining and insidious COVID restrictions and orders at any cost".

Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and current Wisconsin Gov. Tim Michels all spoke on Monday, with the latter opening the convention earlier in the day with the state's six Republican House members and Sen. Ron Johnson. Sens. Chuck Grassley of Iowa and John Neely Kennedy of Louisiana also spoke in defense of Trump's "tenacity on electing qualified conservatives and constitutionalists to federal judicial posts and the Supreme Court" and blasted Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for "destroying our judicial system with woke activist judges who are failing our country". Sens. Tommy Tuberville (AL) and Herschel Walker (GA), both of whom built their careers in football, also joined legendary sports announcer Al Michaels in introducing Michaels' longtime former colleague, Michele Tafoya (who is running for U.S. Senate in Minnesota) to the audience with Michaels proclaiming "Do you believe in miracles? Then how about we send Ron DeSantis 10 votes from a certain state that is home to our next guest and a great colleague of mine...let's go now to the next U.S. Senator from the great state of Minnesota, Michele Tafoya!"

Tafoya, who aims to become Minnesota's first GOP U.S. Senator since Norm Coleman was elected in 2002 and deliver her state to DeSantis for the first time since 1972 (Minnesota was the only state won by former Vice President and favorite son Walter Mondale in the landslide 1984 reelection of Ronald Reagan), called on delegates to "stand strong for the values we all hold dearly" and "never give up, because miracles happen where you least expect them, and in Minnesota you bet we believe in them!" The first night of the convention was devoted to abortion and other social, cultural and pride and patriotism issues, highlighted by a rousing speech from outgoing Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (who received a video tribute and standing ovation for his two terms of service in the Senate) imploring Republicans to "vote for the one candidate with a true conscience...Ron DeSantis!" Cruz later joined Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma that evening in paying tribute to Norma McCorvey, the famous "Jane Roe" in the Roe v. Wade case who later became an advocate for the pro-life movement until her death in 2017 and received a video tribute as well.

Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee (the latter of whom is heavily favored for reelection after a close election in 2018 against Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen) also took the stage on Monday to emphasize the "importance of electing brave and fearless conservatives" and highlighted the candidacy of "conservative outsider" and State Sen. Mike Martucci, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in New York against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Martucci later spoke in primetime as he vowed to "rein in the long, painful Democratic regime that has crippled the Empire State for too long and send a fearless conservative to represent New Yorkers in the Senate". Martucci was followed by Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, who is the GOP's nominee for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Maria Cantwell, having been introduced on stage by 2008 vice presidential nominee and U.S. Rep. Sarah Palin of Alaska (who also praised DeSantis's choice of Nikki Haley for Vice President), fellow U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming and Palin's fellow Alaskan and Sen. Kelly Tshibaka. Palin and Hageman, along with Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, are heavily favored for renomination and reelection on Tuesday despite the former two's highly competitive election bids in 2022.

But while Florida Lt. Gov. Jeannette Nuñez gave a rousing speech in which she looked forward to "becoming Florida's FIRST female Governor and will work to continue the great progress Florida has made under Ron DeSantis", the night clearly belonged to Donald Trump, as the former President is set to close out the night on the GOP's final full day as "the party of Trump". Several alums of the Trump era, including former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and one of her predecessors, current Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former senior counselor and campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, former social media director Dan Scavino and others spoke glowingly of their former boss and denounced the January 6th committee as a "witch hunt than thankfully belongs in the dustbin of history" (Scavino's words). After a powerful speech by Trump's older sons from his first marriage with the late Ivana Trump, Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump, term-limited Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb introduced a fairly skeptical but otherwise approving crowd to a particular guest familiar to him and his state.

That guest turned out to be none other than Holcomb's predecessor, former Vice President Mike Pence, who received a standing ovation and video tribute before his 20-minute speech calling Trump "the greatest President our country has ever seen" and while continuing to defend his role in certifying the 2020 election of Joe Biden to mixed boos and hisses from the audience, stated that "Never again shall we have to end up in the situation we were in in 2020, because we are going to redouble our efforts to stop the Democrats and forget the horror show of that election that Donald Trump and I have chosen to forgive and forget". At the end of his speech, Pence urged all Republicans to "elect Ron DeSantis as our next President and put an end to the miserable and forgettable era of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris", before introducing the former President on stage. After a powerful five-minute tribute, Trump entered the stage as he and Pence embraced and shook hands, with Trump remarking "Mike, I'm still mad at you for the naughty thing you did that night, but it's all good now, because hating the Democrats and Kamala Harris matters even more!"

To no great surprise at the end of the evening, Trump indeed spoke glowingly of his presidency, continued to blast Joe Biden as "the most illegitimate President in our nation's history" as well as speaking his mind on the 2020 election ("We are not going to let the Democrats STEAL our elections again, and we are going to raise hell like never before if Kamala steals it again!"), reiterated his calls for fair trade ("We are not going back to the failed trade policies of the past"), took aim at Republicans skeptical about Ron DeSantis ("I don't agree with Ron on everything, but I didn't agree with Ronald Reagan on everything either, and they are the greatest Republicans to have ever lived on the face of the earth!"), implored Republicans to continue denouncing "endless wars" ("Ron will make sure we don't get into another endless boondoggle overseas when America has problems of its own here at home and even in our woke chickenhawk military!"), and even took aim at the NBA with an olive branch to the main tenant of the Fiserv Forum, the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks ("Here in Milwaukee, you have a great NBA team, with a great Greek Freak - Giannis, (Antetokounmpo) whoever the hell his name is - who is ten times more American than LeBron James will ever be - but at least the Cavs were nice to let use their court eight years ago, what a glorious time that was!" (alluding to the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland)).

And despite his past criticism of Nikki Haley, Trump also spoke glowingly of his ticket. "There's no doubt Nikki Haley and I had bad blood between us, especially over the horrible things she said about me on January 6th, but I have no doubt that Nikki Haley was the greatest Ambassador we ever sent to the UN, and stood tall when they tried to get us to bow to China - something Beijing Biden always caved on", Trump remarked. He then concluded his speech, appropriately on what many considered the party's final night as "the party of Trump", "With Ron DeSantis, we are going to make freedom matter again, and we are going to Make America Great Again, Now and Always!"

Overall, the first night of the convention was smooth sailing, but not without protests that marred the scene outside of Fiserv Forum. Thousands of protestors were stationed within a mile of the arena, with such derogatory signs as "Dr. Death" and "DeathSantis" dotting the landscape. Both the Milwaukee Police Department and the Milwaukee County Sheriff's Office reported more than 100 arrests, a few dozen injuries, and even two deaths involving a crude Molotov cocktail that unexpectedly exploded in a car near a parking lot just blocks from Fiserv Forum, with over three dozen Greenpeace activists arrested for blocking traffic on Interstate 94 (including two ambulances rushing patients to the hospital and a CNN camera crew) during the evening rush hour.