2024 - A Blank Canvas

[SaintStan86]

February 5, 2024
PENCE HOLDS OFF SASSE IN IOWA; DeSANTIS, CRUZ UNDERPERFORM
On Monday night, former Vice President Mike Pence held off a strong challenge from Sen. Ben Sasse in Iowa's "first in the nation" caucuses, which were only such for the Republicans as the Democrats' concurrent caucuses only came after two contests that were bumped up by the latter party last year. Despite only mustering just under 20 percent of the caucus vote, Pence benefited from strong support in most of Iowa's rural areas, particularly around Cedar Rapids and Davenport, major manufacturing and farming centers that trended strongly towards Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 after going for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Speaking before supporters at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Coralville, near the University of Iowa campus, Pence thanked his supporters and proclaimed, "Tonight is the beginning of our quest to take this country back from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and we are bringing out the calvary!".

Meanwhile, across the state at the River's Edge Pavilion in Council Bluffs, located just across the Missouri River from Omaha, the Nebraska-based Sasse declared "It feels great to be close to home tonight here in Council Bluffs. We are moving onward to New Hampshire with the most momentum, for America is ready for a leader who will strive for nothing less than the very best!" With just under 17 percent of the vote, Sasse won only one fewer delegate than Pence's eight, all doled out based on the statewide results out of 40 delegates. Earlier in the day, Rep. Randy Feenstra was seen spotted with Sasse, with the 4th District Congressman later remarking he voted for the Nebraska U.S. Senator, acknowledging that while he disagreed with Sasse's vote to convict Trump, he described the Senator as "a solid conservative who has stood up to the DC establishment even if it costs him a seat at the elite's dinner table. Because the only dinner table that matters is the one Ronald Reagan sat at".

Former Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished third with over 15 percent of the vote and six delegates, thanked her supporters at the Marriott in downtown Des Moines with Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst in attendance, "I thank my supporters for putting their trust in me and giving me the confidence to Stand for America as we march on to New Hampshire". Early polls show Nikki Haley with a narrow lead in the Granite State, where earlier in the day she won the support of former New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte who was in attendance in Des Moines with Haley that evening. (Iowa's other U.S. Senator, Chuck Grassley, did not make his endorsement or caucus vote public, instead declaring a pledge to support the winner of the Republican presidential nomination.)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished in fourth place with 11.6 percent of the vote and five delegates, was not fazed by his underperformance in the traditionally populist Hawkeye State, and reminded his supporters at the Sheraton in West Des Moines that "this is just a fork in the road". DeSantis continued, "What matters in the end is what voters in all 50 states think of our campaign, and as evidenced by our strong showing nationally, we remain the leading Republican choice for President. It's a shame that more Iowans didn't give us more of a chance, but to all you Iowans here tonight I am eternally grateful to each of you for your support". Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was the biggest overperformer of the night, finishing in fifth with over 10 percent of the vote and four delegates. "There is so much to unpack here tonight, but we are headed in the right direction and we're going to New Hampshire!", Pompeo declared to his watch party at the Gateway Hotel and Conference Center near the Iowa State University campus in Ames.

The most disappointing results belonged to Sen. Ted Cruz, who fell to sixth place in the final caucus results after a string of mediocre debate performances with 9.45 percent and four delegates, and Sen. Tom Cotton, who fell to 6.41 percent and only two delegates despite an aggressive push for Iowa voters in the last days of the statewide campaign. Four other candidates - Sen. Marco Rubio, former Gov. Larry Hogan, businessman Mike Lindell and former Gov. Chris Christie - all received one delegate each, while conservative commentator and Blexit activist Candace Owens received none. While all of the candidates were in Iowa during the day, Christie and Hogan were both in New Hampshire on Monday night, where they are performing better in statewide polling with one week to go before that state's "first in the nation" primary.

February 5, 2024
HARRIS SCORES RAZOR-THIN WIN IN IOWA; BUTTIGIEG WINS MOST DELEGATES
On Monday night, Vice President Kamala Harris added to her overall lead in the Democratic presidential nominating process with a narrow win in Iowa, winning well over 26 percent of the statewide vote and performing one percentage point higher than former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who finished in second place with over 25 percent of the vote. Sen. Elizabeth Warren finished third with over 21 percent of the vote, while fellow Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who represents neighboring Minnesota in the U.S. Senate, won nearly 17 percent of the vote. Govs. Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Jared Polis of Colorado both finished well behind the rest of the Democratic pack with just under 10 percent of the vote between the two.

However, while Harris won overall statewide, Buttigieg won one more delegate than Harris - 14 to 13 - a fact owed to the former South Bend, Indiana mayor's convincing wins in the eastern-based 1st and 2nd Districts where he won three delegates each, as well as a narrow win over Harris in the heavily Republican, western-based 4th District. Harris's only congressional district victory was in the Des Moines-based 3rd, where Buttigieg finished in second place. Warren won eight delegates in the Hawkeye State despite not finishing higher than third place in each of the state's congressional districts, while Klobuchar won five including two from a second-place finish in the Cedar Rapids-based 2nd District (which partially borders Minnesota).

Addressing supporters at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, Harris proclaimed "The results of tonight's caucuses prove that this nomination is clearly up for grabs. But in spite of everything our opponents have tried to throw at us, we are grateful to the voters of Iowa who put their trust in me, and we are taking that momentum to New Hampshire!". Harris also thanked former President Barack Obama for his "friendship and foresight" in endorsing her before the caucuses, and proclaimed that her campaign is ready to "close the gap" against Warren, who currently leads in polls within New Hampshire. Buttigieg, meanwhile, thanked his supporters at a banquet hall in Davenport where he called the night "our finest moment yet" and motivated his supporters to "keep our historic campaign going as we head to New Hampshire!". Klobuchar also thanked her supporters from her watch party in Waterloo, where she declared "This candidacy is not over, and in fact this is only the beginning!" Warren, who spent the day throughout the state, had already left her watch party in Des Moines where she thanked her supporters and was on a plane to New Hampshire when the projections for Harris were declared official.

February 6, 2024
COTTON DROPS OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE, WILL NOT MAKE IMMEDIATE ENDORSEMENT
Following a disappointing performance in Iowa on Monday night, Sen. Tom Cotton held a press conference outside his U.S. Senate office in Little Rock where he announced he was dropping out of the Republican presidential primary. "The voters of Iowa and America have spoken, and after much heavy thought and reflection, I am suspending my campaign for President and releasing my two delegates from Iowa, my supporters and my campaign staff to endorse other candidates in this race". At the same time, when asked about who he intends to endorse, Cotton proclaimed that he intends to wait until the first Super Tuesday next March (which will include Arkansas). "My focus right now will be to return to the U.S. Senate where I will continue to fight for the people of Arkansas and for our country, where leadership at home and in the world is needed the most", and stated that he had no regrets about his stances made throughout his presidential campaign.

Cotton's campaign started out with considerable anticipation, as he marketed himself as a fresh face who combined strong support for former President Donald Trump's domestic and economic policies with a hawkish foreign policy not unlike that of another former Republican President, George W. Bush, as well as former Ambassador Nikki Haley who sought the same sort of votes from foreign policy hawks who otherwise have become somewhat of a minority in a Republican Party where Trump's relatively non-interventionist as well as the GOP's traditional realist foreign policy stance was more in vogue. However, despite winning the endorsement of most of Arkansas's GOP brass including current Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and her predecessor, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson, as well as his neighboring colleague in the Senate in Missouri's Josh Hawley, Cotton's hawkish foreign policy stances combined with his defense of the controversial "War on Drugs" cost him support from more libertarian- and small government-minded conservatives, while Haley's late-breaking endorsements from two of Iowa's leading Republicans (Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst) pushed Cotton's campaign further on the back burner. Cotton only won 6.4 percent of the vote and two delegates in Iowa last night out of 40 possible delegates.

February 7, 2024
MIKE LINDELL WILL SEEK CONSTITUTION PARTY NOMINATION IN 2024
After a weak performance in Iowa and continued poor performance in the Republican presidential primary, businessman Mike Lindell announced the scheduling of a rally on Wednesday night at the headquarters of his company, MyPillow, in Shakopee. At the rally, Lindell announced that he was no longer seeking the Republican nomination for President and instead declared his candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Constitution Party, a hard-right third party whose political philosophy combines social conservatism with paleoconservatism and elements of economic nationalism. Addressing his supporters on Wednesday night, Lindell proclaimed "The fight in this country is not between Republicans and Democrats, but rather between those who wish to continue the status quo versus those who wish to shake things up. That is why tonight, I am declaring my candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Constitution Party!"

Alluding to such figures as Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot and former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (who served as a third-party Governor from 1998 to 2002), Lindell vowed to "defend family values", "secure election integrity for future generations" and "end all corporate welfare and return as much of our government as possible to the States". Calling the Republican Party a party "beset by cultural indifference, an unwillingness to fight for our freedoms and co-opted by woke corporate cronyism", Lindell made a vow to "restore the integrity of our country at all costs", and denied that his newfound third-party candidacy was an effort to hand the White House to the Democrats. "If anything, we are going to replace the Republican Party as America's premier conservative political party", Lindell declared.

The switch to the Constitution Party by Lindell is met with mixed reviews. Democrats expressed a mixture of giddiness about Lindell siphoning off enough of the Republican vote to give Democrats an edge, while also expressing pause that Lindell's campaign would ultimately move the right "in a regressive direction not unlike what Nigel Farage and Le Pen have done overseas", per MSNBC host Joe Scarborough's words on his Morning Joe program the following Thursday. Republicans, however, were not necessarily impressed. "Mike Lindell was never a serious contender for President, and his switch to a fringe third party with next to no institutional support only solidifies his fringe status", proclaimed Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement to the media. "At the end of the day, voters will choose our highly qualified Republican nominee over whichever Democrat earns their nod", McDaniel continued.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

[2016]

If Haley does sneak out a narrow win in New Hampshire she will become the Frontrunner. Even if she would lose narrowly she would be in good shape with South Carolina looming.
Has Governor Sununu endorsed anyone?

[SaintStan86]

February 8, 2024
ABC ANNOUNCES FIELD FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATES
On Thursday's broadcast of Good Morning America, George Stephanopoulos announced the fields for ABC's upcoming presidential debates in New Hampshire, both set to take place at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire on Friday and Saturday. Both debates will feature World News Tonight anchor David Muir, Noticiero Univision anchor Jorge Ramos and WMUR-TV Political Director Adam Sexton (whose station is the ABC affiliate serving the New Hampshire side of the Boston market, the remainder of which is served by its Boston-based corporate sibling, WCVB) as moderators, while Friday's Democratic debate will also feature Stephanopoulos as a moderator and Saturday's Republican one will include Brendan McQuaid, who is the President of the influential New Hampshire Union Leader, on the panel.

The DNC has set three criterion for participation in the New Hampshire debate, which begins Friday night at 8pm on ABC and Univision. The first qualifier will be those who won at least 1 delegate in Iowa, with the order sorted based on the national polling average; Vice President Kamala Harris continues to be first in this criterion followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Sec. Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The second qualifier will be those who polled a national average of 7 percent or higher as of Thursday morning; only North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper qualifies between himself and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. Polis qualifies for the debate anyway based on the third and final qualifier: a New Hampshire average of 7 percent of higher; Polis is virtually tied with Buttigieg in the libertarian-leaning state which has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since George W. Bush did in 2000.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE FEBRUARY 9TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (ABC/Univision @ Goffstown, NH)
Candidate	Avg. (2/8)	Poll A (2/7)	Poll B (2/6)	Poll C (2/3)	Poll D (2/1)	Poll E (1/30)	NH Avg.
PARTICIPATING (won pledged delegates in Iowa)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	29.4	28	27	32	31	29	26
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	25.2	25	24	26	25	26	37
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	12.2	14	13	10	12	12	9
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	5.0	6	4	4	6	5	4
PARTICIPATING (national average of 7%+)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	7.6	8	7	8	8	7	5
PARTICIPATING (New Hampshire average of 7%+)
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	6.8	7	7	7	8	5	9

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR FEBRUARY 9TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

5. Cooper

3. Buttigieg

1. Harris

2. Warren

4. Klobuchar

6. Polis

The order for the Democratic debate remains largely unchanged save for Klobuchar no longer being situated towards the end of the stage, due to her winning delegates in Iowa on Monday night, but it does not change the fact that Klobuchar still ranks last amongst the six Democrats in New Hampshire. Even though Warren leads most polls in New Hampshire well outside the margin of error, Harris continues to be the first candidate in the pecking order as she continues to maintain a slight lead over Warren in national polling as well as a lead in total pledged delegates, 55 to Warren's 39. This is the final debate for the Democrats before the New Hampshire primary, with two more debates scheduled to take place in Boston and Dallas shortly before Super Tuesday, with the DNC as well as the Texas Democratic Party also announcing on Wednesday that the latter debate will only be attended by Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters who did not cast ballots in early voting for the Texas primary, which concludes on the previous Friday and covers not only the presidential primary but also its general primary of statewide, congressional, legislative and judicial slates as well (along with various Democratic propositions).

As for Saturday's Republican debate, the RNC and ABC News have set the criterion based on its own set of three qualifiers. The first qualifier is a top-four finish in last Monday's Iowa caucuses, with former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Ben Sasse, former Ambassador Nikki Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis all qualifying based on this qualifier, followed by the top eight candidates based on the statewide polling average in New Hampshire and the top eight candidates based on the national polling average. On the second qualifier, the four who qualified based on the Iowa results also qualify along with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Ted Cruz and former Gov. Larry Hogan. Amongst the remaining Republican candidates, only Sens. Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio qualified based on the national polling qualifier; however, because Cotton suspended his campaign on Tuesday, only Rubio will participate based on the last qualifier.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE FEBRUARY 10TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (ABC/Univision @ Goffstown, NH)
Candidate	Avg. (2/8)	Poll A (2/7)	Poll B (2/4)	Poll C (2/2)	Poll D (1/30)	Poll E (1/28)	NH Avg.
PARTICIPATING (Top 4 finish in Iowa)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	20.6	20	19	22	22	20	15
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	14.8	15	14	15	16	14	11
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	14.2	16	14	13	14	14	19
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	9.4	9	9	10	11	8	11
PARTICIPATING (Top 8 in New Hampshire polling)
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	9.2	11	10	8	9	8	8
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	9.2	9	10	10	8	9	7
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	4.2	3	5	4	4	5	8
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	4.2	4	3	5	4	5	7
PARTICIPATING (Top 8 in national polling)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	4.4	5	4	6	3	4	6
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	4.4	3	6	3	5	5	2
NOT PARTICIPATING
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	1.2	1	2	1	0	2	1
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	0.8	0	1	0	1	2	1

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR FEBRUARY 10TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

8. Hogan

6. Cruz

4. Sasse

2. Pence

1. DeSantis

3. Haley

5. Pompeo

7. Christie

9. Rubio

In a pure coincidence, the top four finishers in Iowa are also the top four candidates in both New Hampshire statewide polling as well as national polling averages. DeSantis remains the leading Republican on the strength of his strong support in most larger states, including in major metropolitan suburbs as well as a large lead in his home state of Florida, so much so that Florida Republicans decided to keep their upcoming primary winner-take-all, even though that primary won't come until the third Super Tuesday next march. While Haley has received a slight bump in national polling following her third-place finish in Iowa, she continues to battle with Pence for second place. Sasse, on the strength of his close second-place finish in Iowa, has entered the top four, if only by a mere two-tenths, while Pompeo has locked with Cruz for fifth behind Sasse as Cruz's campaign continues to flounder. Christie and Hogan chiefly qualified based on their higher-than-average polling in New Hampshire (where more moderate Republicans drawn to their campaigns exist than in other states such as those in the South and Midwest), as does Rubio whose national polling was good enough to qualify for this debate. Cotton also qualified for this debate prior to his dropping out, even though he polled a shockingly low two percent in New Hampshire at last check, though given New Hampshire's libertarian-leaning GOP electorate, which chafed at Cotton's foreign and domestic policy views exposed in recent debates, this number is considered unsurprising.

Candace Owens, who is disqualified for not reaching the threshold in each of the three qualifiers, says she will continue her campaign regardless of her diminished exposure and chances, and pointed the finger directly at the media for "disqualifying candidates based on flawed polling" and cited stronger-than-average support from "folks who don't trust polls" as well as younger Republicans who don't buy into traditional landline polling. (Never mind that many polls now incorporate mobile telephone callers and online respondents in addition to landlines.) Lindell, who would not have qualified for the New Hampshire debate under any of the three qualifiers, has since shifted to the Constitution Party.

[SaintStan86]

February 9, 2024
DEMOCRATS DEBATE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE; WARREN ROASTS VICE PRESIDENT OVER HEALTHCARE, CORPORATE WELFARE
On Friday night, Democrats debated before a packed audience at Sullivan Arena, the on-campus hockey arena of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire days before the candidates are set to receive at least part of 23 pledged delegates in Tuesday's upcoming primary, a traditionally "first in the nation" affair that has been somewhat put on the back burner after Nevada and South Carolina Democrats bumped their respective contests to earlier dates. Despite this, the debate (nationally televised on ABC and Univision) went off without a hitch, with most of the fireworks being reserved for an issues battle between frontrunner Kamala Harris and her more progressive rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who chastised the Vice President over healthcare policy and the influence of corporate money in federal elections.

In response to a question from Univision anchor Jorge Ramos, who asked Harris if whether or not her large amount of donations from technology companies including Meta, Netflix, Tesla and Amazon amount to hypocrisy considering Harris's past "for the people" campaigns, Harris responded "I can tell you first of all that those donations were not directly from corporations, but rather from individuals who donated thousands of dollars on their personal time as U.S. citizens. It is perfectly legal and not the same as direct corporate donations". Warren retorted and blasted Harris as a hypocrite, "If you're truly going to be 'for the people', the last thing you need is for your campaign to be defined by the sort of corporate donations that don't reflect your message, as evidenced by your lackadaisical attempts to rein in corporate welfare, especially when it comes to Big Tech". Warren also alluded to worker conditions and compensation at several of the companies, and proclaimed that "Amazon workers have a right to unionize for their interests and for their wages".

The candidates also debated the issues of climate change and opioid abuse, with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis pointing to the precarious economic nature of the North Country region in answering a question from moderator and WMUR-TV political director Adam Sexton regarding 'forgotten corners of the country'. "Voters in places like Coös County, which has been ravaged by economic stagnation, climate change and dependence on fentanyl and meth among other dangerous drugs, should have resources sent their way," said Polis who vowed to create partnerships with local businesses and regional community leaders to combat the issues, similar to how he handled the same matters in Colorado. The other Democrats generally agreed with Polis, though Warren (who supports a single-payer healthcare option in lieu of the Affordable Care Act) pointed out that drug treatment should be reimbursed under her healthcare proposal, while Harris proposed incentivizing states who steer drug abusers into treatment programs instead of incarceration. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who was the chief prosecutor in Hennepin County (home to Minneapolis) before becoming a U.S. Senator, vowed to go further than Harris in steering nonviolent drug offenders to sobriety, "One thing I can guarantee as your Senator is that we will not overcrowd our federal prisons with those who merely bought the substance and didn't cook it themselves". (Fun fact: The North Country region coincidentally is the only part of New Hampshire not primarily served by the region's ABC affiliate, WMUR-TV, as it primarily sits in the Portland, Maine television market.)

Healthcare became another flashpoint between the candidates, and in particular the two frontrunners as Harris's answer to a question on healthcare from moderator David Muir ignited passionate responses. Harris reiterated her call to transition the Affordable Care Act into her "Medicare for All" proposal, but Warren was having none of it as she called the current healthcare system "fundamentally flawed and dominated by corporate interests whose only obligation at the end of the day is to Wall Street plutocrats for whom their ability to sleep at night always bewilders me". Harris retorted, "My proposal does do more for families needing health coverage, and does so without taking away your preferred doctor or dentist of choice", and acknowledged that there will be casualties in any healthcare reform package with regards to doctors willing to participate. Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg, meanwhile, continued to promote his "Medicare for All Who Want It" proposal, which he defended as "the most realistic chance at maximizing health insurance coverage for every American without putting our country deeper into debt", while also proposing debt forgiveness plans for COVID patients who required intensive care during the pandemic who still owe medical debt, as well as those who took part in experimental medical procedures under the "right to try" laws implemented by former President Donald Trump. "'Right to try' was one of the few things Trump and I agreed with, that I will say candidly", Buttigieg admits.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper also used the debate to highlight his successes as a Governor in a state whose constituents voted for the other party, highlighting the same arguments about winning in a state won twice by Trump already mentioned in past debates, but this time referencing the state's GOP Governor, Chris Sununu. "We all know how much people in New Hampshire appreciate their Governor despite not being from the same party as the presidential winner, and I can relate to that as well", pointing to various successes on education and other domestic issues through bipartisan votes and vowed as President to make the congressional "Center Aisle Caucus" his chief Congressional negotiating group on legislative priorities. When asked by moderator George Stephanopoulos if his move amounted to "throwing loyal progressives under the bus", Cooper denied this citing "At the end of the day, unlike Republicans who profess unnerving loyalty to their extremist base at any cost, our base is very reasonable and takes a victory as a victory because as the story goes, 'you win some, you lose some'".

Overall, the debate lasted for two hours with Warren generally drawing the highest approval ratings from audience members, while Polis and Klobuchar drew a positive response for their proposals to steer those who abuse opioids and other synthetic drugs towards treatment programs. While earning points for her frank honesty on her handling of critical issues as Vice President, Harris continued to draw a lukewarm response from more progressive respondents, casting doubt on whether or not her performance would be enough to close the gap against Warren in a state where the latter is expected to benefit from merely being from neighboring Massachusetts.

February 10, 2024
GOP CLASHES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATE AS "FIRST IN THE NATION" PRIMARY LOOMS
Early Saturday evening, Republicans took part in one final debate before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, as the candidates hurtled towards the homestretch with under 72 hours to go before the first votes are in. Televised on ABC and Univision in the early evening hours, the debate lasted for two hours and for the most part comprised of nine of the remaining Republicans reiterating their previous debate stances, though there were some surprises on the stage at Sullivan Arena as the hockey arena of Saint Anselm College in the New Hampshire town of Goffstown served as the final opportunity for the candidates to win votes in the Granite State with 24 delegates set to be handed out on Tuesday.

The President of the New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper, Brendan McQuaid, drew up one of the most heated moments of the debate when he asked Gov. Ron DeSantis if his style of governance with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic and the controversy surrounding Disney's response to the so-called "Don't Say Gay" bill is more beneficial to conservatism versus Trump's style. DeSantis defended his governance of Florida through such tough and controversial periods, citing "For too long Republicans had been choosing to play it safe while the Democrats go into all-out hysteria. My governance of Florida, as evidenced by the fact that companies like Disney and major hospitals eventually acquiesced and started listening to Floridians instead of the woke and fear crowds, was rewarded with a resounding victory in 2022 and it's the model that reflects the direction America must go in". Former Gov. Larry Hogan, whose response to the pandemic was more in line with those of more Democratic states, was having none of it and alluded to New Hampshire's own Republican Governor, "Gov. DeSantis thinks what's good for Florida is good for New Hampshire and other states that aren't exactly flaming red. Yes DeSantis did exceptionally well, but so did Chris Sununu here in New Hampshire and he actually did better than he did because he put his trust in experts and listened to his constituents. DeSantis? He only talks to Fox News and no one else".

DeSantis himself hit back, "Governor, with all due respect our state actually gained residents at your expense during the pandemic, because they wanted freedom while you shut your state down. We're not in a bitter nuclear war, so why even go there with telling people not to trust their own best decisions?" Sen. Marco Rubio agreed with his fellow Floridian in responding to Hogan, "He's right. Florida actually prospered because of how Ron DeSantis handled things where I'm from. I just never got to really see it because our woke government in Miami-Dade County kept us masked up more often than not". Gov. Chris Christie, while appearing to side with Hogan and take shots at DeSantis, also acknowledged his own survival story, "I got COVID. Even had a week-long stay with room service and free HBO in the hospital. I know everyone who caught it at the super-spreader where I caught it survived, too".

Meanwhile, Sen. Ben Sasse was pressed by moderator David Muir if his plan to tackle the federal deficit within four years under an "all hands on deck" debt reduction initiative (including cuts to social programs deemed wasteful, department consolidations and the pairing down of legacy Pentagon and transportation contracts) will pay for itself. Sasse replied, "I have full confidence it will, and when every Republican and some good Democrats see it, they will see this as a grand bargain that works to everyone's benefit". Former Ambassador Nikki Haley also responded, "Sen. Sasse's plan to reduce our national debt has good intentions, but what about our military which certainly needs our full support? Or counterterrorism especially with Putin and hackers from rogue nations like North Macedonia constantly misinforming the American people? Certainly I could not think of a worse time to make drastic cuts there". However, Haley also denied that she was advocating for a "warfare state" similar to what George W. Bush pursued with regards to the War on Terror and Iraq: "All things said, the last thing we need is to go back to the failed playbook of engaging in war everywhere there's a threat," while refusing to say if practices like base closures and expanding the Selective Service System to include women and adults aged 26-35 would be necessitated.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took issue with both Sasse and Haley, pointing to his own successes in his position including his role in the Abraham Accords and "avoiding a costly war with Russia that Biden has since perpetuated", while also excoriating both for their own indifference towards Trump. "When Donald Trump was in office, we prevented Russia from invading Ukraine, fought to liberalize Arab nations and normalize relations with Israel and stood up for democratic leaders like Juan Guaidó in Venezuela who fought against their brutal and cannibalistic regimes. Now all that progress has been reversed under Biden, because Ben Sasse chose to trash our President to his constituents over the phone and Nikki Haley chose to leave him hanging out to dry instead of helping him when he was needed the most". Haley retorted, "My decision to leave the White House was never about Trump's tweets, and everything about wanting a recharge and to spend more time with my newly adult children", and also stressed her close involvement with Trump's 2020 reelection campaign.

Meanwhile, when asked by moderator Jorge Ramos if embracing immigration reform alongside border security would have prevented a restaurant owner in his own home state from being deported back to Mexico, leaving behind his family in the process, former Vice President Mike Pence called the question "a very stupid one" and continued, "If we had effectively pushed a comprehensive border security and immigration reform plan within the first 100 days and did not have to deal with the obstructive actions of Democrats and a few selfish Republicans who wanted to see President Trump and (then-Speaker of the House) Paul Ryan fail, my fellow Hoosier would still be in America today and he in fact would have been a taxpaying U.S. citizen". Sen. Ted Cruz was also not impressed and took issue with Ramos' longstanding disputes with Trump off the anchor desk, "The fact that you're making this all about wanting to see that Donald Trump is a racist is just very sad". Ramos responded, "Nothing racist about it, just trying to have a debate here". (Following the debate, renewed criticism of Ramos from conservatives emerged during the Monday after on various talk radio and TV programs.)

Moderator Adam Sexton, who serves as the political director for ABC's New Hampshire affiliate, WMUR-TV, asked Haley if nuclear energy holds the key to permanent energy independence for the United States and immunity from the pressures to go to war overseas. Haley responded, "It most certainly does" and continued "With safe, reliable nuclear power, a robust natural gas pipeline network and our own arsenal of fossil and renewable energy resources, we can achieve a brighter tomorrow both for America and for the world. Joe Biden's handpicked successor won't achieve it, but I will". All of the candidates agreed to various extents, with DeSantis calling for "energy safe zones where activities such as constructing wind turbines and oil pumpjacks can happen without restrictions", Hogan providing tax incentives to communities who agree to build nuclear power reactors, and Pompeo devising a strategy to "ensure that all of our energy plants are capable of producing ACTUAL energy without adding to our carbon footprint and without environmental radicals attempting to subjugate them". While many also spoke in strong support of conservation efforts, they roundly condemned environmental radicalism, with Christie arguing that groups like PETA and the Environmental Defense Fund "promote terrorism and only seek to divide communities".

The debate was mostly congenial, with much of the criticism being directed of Ramos for his aggressive questioning of Pence and Cruz on the immigration issue. "If you like cheap labor, you'll love Jorge Ramos," Laura Ingraham declared on her Fox News show the following Monday. Christie was seen as having made the most strides in Saturday's debate based on exit polling from debate audience members and viewers at home, though some argued as to whether or not it would be enough for Christie to break through in a crowded Republican field. Haley also drew strong praise for her stances on energy independence as well as for insisting that her more hawkish views on foreign policy did not equate to a "backdoor return" to the neoconservatism of George W. Bush, which has since become unpopular with the Republican base. Candace Owens, who was not invited to the debate, instead held her own town hall meeting on Twitch with fellow supporters of hers at Dartmouth College in Hanover, "While my opponents were tearing down each other in front of a corrupt mainstream media panel, I spent the night talking with students at Dartmouth and other colleges who are done with cancel culture and want to go back to just being Americans living their best life".

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Making a few updates to reflect recent campaign developments in New Hampshire. I had hopes that Rich Ashooh would enter the GOP primary against Maggie Hassan in the U.S. Senate, where he would have shined and fit in quite nicely with fiscal conservatives on the Hill, but apparently that is not going to be the case and the lion's share of the endorsements have gone to former Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc, who wins the primary despite criticism from some Republican circles that put his candidacy in doubt. Bolduc ultimately manages to defeat Hassan in the big Republican wave election that also sweeps both of New Hampshire's congressional seats into GOP hands, though (given recent redistricting developments) both are not considered shockers as a special master drew New Hampshire's seats into their traditionally equal form versus the Legislature-approved map that would have dealt a death blow to Chris Pappas in the 1st and a favorable advantage to Annie Kuster in the 2nd - and in this TL both Democrats lost anyway. Matt Mowers is still the Republican victor in the 1st, but with Jeff Cozzens (whom I accidentally miscolored as being a Democrat earlier in this TL) now having dropped out in the 2nd, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Bob Burns is the new Republican nominee and now freshman incumbent.

Also, in another big development IRL the New York Court of Appeals - the Empire State's equivalent of SCOTUS - threw out the Empire State's Democratic gerrymander, which now means that the Legislature will have to go back to the drawing board and come up with something that isn't explicitly drawn to favor a Democratic advantage greater than their actual statewide results. Will have to see what this actually means for several of the districts, but because New York City is so overwhelmingly Democratic save for Staten Island, the Upstate is now going to be quite thorny for the Dems depending on what map does get greenlit in the end.

February 11, 2024
UNION LEADER ENDORSES POLIS, SASSE FOR PRESIDENT; HALEY, POMPEO GAIN BIG ENDORSEMENTS
Just hours after the New Hampshire debate, the New Hampshire Union-Leader quickly fired up its printing presses and released its official endorsements for President early Sunday morning. On the Democratic side, the paper endorsed Colorado Gov. Jared Polis whom the paper's President Brendan McQuaid called "a dynamic and transformational Democrat who will seek to breathe life into our economy, secure the blessings of liberty for every American regardless of who they are on the outside, and put America's best foot forward", while expressing doubts that Vice President Kamala Harris could win a general election and taking shots at Sen. Elizabeth Warren, citing "Her progressive elixir may work well for her hard-left idealist backers who think the world has left them out in the cold, but the reality is where it's been tried it has backfired spectacularly". Polis highlighted the endorsement without fail, "As the endorsed candidate of the most respected news organization in the state, I will strive to deliver for New Hampshire like no other President has before".

The Union Leader also made its widely anticipated endorsement clear in the Republican primary, where it selected Sen. Ben Sasse as its endorsed choice. In endorsing Sasse, McQuaid alluded to one of the state's historical Republicans, the late former U.S. Sen. Warren Rudman. "Like Rudman who believed in the New Hampshire way, Sasse will make fiscal responsibility the nation's first and foremost obligation, will protect our shared values as a nation without causing deep divisions at home, and will keep our military strong without resorting to severe conflict". In highlighting why he didn't endorse any of the other Republicans, McQuaid also took issue with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's criticism of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu as well as the overall economic reputation of his home state of Florida and especially his "copycatting of Donald Trump", viewed his paper's endorsed 2016 choice in Chris Christie (now the former Governor of New Jersey) as "too apologetic to Trump and too mired in the politics of the past to compete in today's Republican Party", and while praising Nikki Haley for her "tenacity in dealing with rogue foreign actors", also criticized the former Ambassador for being "so calculating that the brave move of breaking free of Trump's chains is something we won't be seeing anytime soon".

However, McQuaid delivered his sharpest criticism towards Sen. Ted Cruz: "No one has sold out his soul, sold out his constituents and sold out his principles any worse than Ted Cruz. That he chose to even express support for let alone endorse Donald Trump after everything Trump did to him, his family and his father is downright bewildering". After receiving the endorsement, Sasse proclaimed "As the endorsed candidate of New Hampshire's largest and one of America's more respected news sources, I am eternally grateful to each and every one of you who will be putting your trust in me this Tuesday" and vowed to "fight to the death punch for every vote from Nashua to the North Country".

Meanwhile, both of the state's highest profile Republican elected officials made their endorsements clear later that day. Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Nikki Haley, whom the popular four-term Republican called "a good friend and an even greater stateswoman who will stand for America like no other President, Republican or Democrat, has before her", and was also joined in endorsing her by his brother, former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu, and his father - former White House Chief of Staff and New Hampshire Governor John H. Sununu. The endorsements set off further alarm bells within Trumpworld as Sasse and Haley's high-profile endorsements from Republican politicos and sources at odds with former President Donald Trump lead to further calls from Trump loyalists for the 45th President to "make his endorsement known soon", with former White House Press Secretary-turned-Newsmax host Sean Spicer proclaiming "The more Donald Trump waits, the less likely the GOP nominee will be someone who will continue Trump's popular legacy in the conservative movement".

Meanwhile, Trump-friendly Sen. Don Bolduc made his own endorsement in the Republican primary clear with a surprising choice: "I am proud to endorse Mike Pompeo to be our next President and encourage all my fellow New Hampshirites to do likewise". After receiving news of his endorsement from Bolduc, Pompeo thanked the former Army Brigadier General-turned-Senator for his friendship and declared "Our campaign is on the rise, and as your President we are going to deliver for America like we've never delivered before!". After being shut out of yet another key slate of endorsements and even being excoriated by the state's leading newspaper, Cruz remarked "Name the last time the so-called Union Leader got it right.", while also acknowledging that Bolduc is "rather different in philosophy from me". Cruz then continued, "I still have confidence that we are going to see victory and the ides of March will show that when all is said and done, we will gain the upper hand!".

February 12, 2024
TUCKER CARLSON: "I'VE SEEN ENOUGH...RON DeSANTIS WILL GET MY VOTE"
On Monday's edition of his namesake Fox News program, Tucker Carlson made it official who his endorsement will go to in the Republican primary. In making his decision official, Carlson acknowledged that "I have sat silently in the background waiting for the right time to make my endorsement official, even as smug elitists crave to take back control with whom they think is the best choice for the Republicans to field in the post-Trump era. But I've seen enough, and after much consideration Ron DeSantis will get my vote when my time comes on Super Tuesday". Carlson alluded to DeSantis's "steadfast leadership in keeping his state open when even other conservative states, several of them more so than Florida, chose to shut down", as well as DeSantis's "courage in handling woke mobs and woke corporations who expected their prized privileges to be renewed only to be met with the book by DeSantis". He also pointed to DeSantis's reluctance to get into foreign disputes as well as his economic record and overall conservative scores from his days as a Congressman as factors in his endorsement.

Following his endorsement, which was precluded by news of a "secret guest" that was announced during advertisements on Fox News earlier in the day, Carlson introduced the "secret guest" as DeSantis who was set to take the stage later that evening at a rally in Nashua, New Hampshire. DeSantis thanked Carlson for his "courage in the face of so much pressure" and vowed to Carlson "We are heading into New Hampshire with good vibes, and even if we don't win on paper we have already won thanks to our unprecedented fundraising from small donors and loyal activists alike, our strong grassroots movement on the ground and our overall solid message that 'Freedom Matters'". Later that night, DeSantis acknowledged Carlson's endorsement to a rip-roaring audience in a Nashua high school gymnasium and vowed "Don't listen to what the experts are going to say about tomorrow night, because your voice and your outreach to your fellow man down the street is what matters in the end".

February 13, 2024
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES WELL UNDERWAY, FIRST RESULTS ALREADY RECORDED IN SOME COMMUNITIES
On Tuesday, the New Hampshire primaries were in full swing as residents lined up in school gymnasiums, town halls and other locations across the Granite State to cast their votes for their party's presidential nomination. According to news reports, long lines have been reported at some voting booths in Manchester and other large cities across the state, while a computer glitch at one polling place in Laconia resulted in voting being delayed for two hours with those who stood in line being given vouchers to return before 7:00 pm ET to cast their votes. Many news organizations have camped out in parking lots and along streets for days anticipating the results and talking with residents on the ground as to why they voted the way they did, with the first results expected sometime after 8:00 pm ET.

In one iconic community in the North Country, there was no wait to be had as the tiny community of Dixville Notch cast its ballots early in the morning at Midnight. On the Democratic side, only three votes were cast with two for former Secretary Pete Buttigieg and one for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, while two voted in the Republican primary for Sen. Ben Sasse. Hart's Location saw 22 Republicans and 16 Democrats cast votes, with former Ambassador Nikki Haley receiving 7 votes on the GOP side, followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 3, Sasse and Gov. Ron DeSantis tying with 2 and eight other candidates - three of them not amongst the leading national candidates - each receiving a vote. Amongst the 16 Democrats, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Sec. Pete Buttigieg each won four votes, while Vice President Kamala Harris and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis each won three votes. Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (who had dropped out last January after the Nevada caucuses and has since endorsed Harris) received one vote with the last vote going to a novelty candidate. Millsfield saw 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats cast votes early this morning, with DeSantis and Sasse each tying with 5 votes for first place on the GOP side and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's four votes representing the only other Republican to get more than one vote, while Warren and Klobuchar were the only Democrats to get more than one vote with the former winning 4 and the latter winning 3.

[SaintStan86]

7PM has come and gone in the Granite State. The results out of New Hampshire are now in...

NEW HAMPSHIRE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Results of Primary:
Elizabeth Warren - 36.65 perecent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 23.35 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 15.07 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 13.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 6.83 perecent
Roy Cooper - 4.35 percent
(Remaining 0.61 percent went to other candidates, including 0.25 for Gina Raimondo)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Manchester, Portsmouth & Laconia (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Concord, Nashua, Berlin & Claremont (8 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1, Jared Polis 1
At-Large Delegates (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 63 delegates +8 from New Hampshire
Elizabeth Warren - 49 delegates +10 from New Hampshire
Pete Buttigieg - 15 delegates +1 from New Hampshire
Roy Cooper - 15 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates +4 from New Hampshire
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Warren's first-place finish is in large part attributed to her strong support in the 2nd District, where she won over 40 percent of the vote and perform strongly in communities along the Vermont state line as well as the Ivy League college town of Hanover (home to Dartmouth College), the state capital of Concord, several outer Boston suburbs including Nashua and Peterborough and the North Country. Harris, meanwhile recorded a stronger performance in the 1st District including the city of Manchester, the Seacoast region including such Boston exurbs as Salem and Portsmouth and the area surrounding Lake Winnipesaukee including Laconia. Polis barely qualified for at-large delegates, and won two delegates in the 2nd District, whereas Buttigieg only managed to win one delegate in the 1st District while underperforming in the other district. Despite dropping out of the race, Raimondo was still on the ballot in New Hampshire where she managed to win about 0.25 percent of the vote statewide.

Warren's performance was notably stronger in areas closer to Vermont and Massachusetts, where she already serves in the Senate from the latter and which is the home state of Bernie Sanders (who often aligns with Warren on many issues in the Senate) in the former. Harris, meanwhile, performed more strongly in Manchester and in the more historically Republican Seacoast and Lakes regions, and with minority voters who represent a minuscule minority within the state. Polis's more libertarian views on social issues helped him draw strong support in college towns such as Hanover and Durham (home to the University of New Hampshire) while more moderate voters in the Seacoast tended to favor Buttigieg if they weren't supporting Warren nor Harris. This is the last of the early states to hand out convention delegates for the Democrats, due to the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary having already been moved up and occurred already, with no more delegates to be handed out until the first of three Super Tuesdays on March 5th and two more debates to be held before then.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Nikki Haley - 19.84 percent (5 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 13.95 percent (3 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 13.21 percent (3 delegates)
Mike Pompeo - 10.55 percent (3 delegates)
Chris Christie - 10.29 percent (2 delegates)
Mike Pence - 10.03 percent (2 delegates)
Ted Cruz - 7.68 percent
Larry Hogan - 6.45 percent
Marco Rubio - 5.15 percent
Candace Owens - 1.64 percent
(Remaining 1.21 percent went to other candidates, including 0.36 for Tom Cotton and 0.33 for Mike Lindell)
6 delegate positions remain open, representing 25 percent of the GOP delegate total. Based on the rules outlined by the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, the six open delegate positions are awarded to Haley who wins a total of 11 delegates.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 17 delegates +11 from New Hampshire
Ben Sasse - 10 delegates +3 from New Hampshire
Mike Pence - 10 delegates +2 from New Hampshire
Ron DeSantis - 8 delegates +3 from New Hampshire
Mike Pompeo - 7 delegates +3 from New Hampshire
Ted Cruz - 4 delegates
Chris Christie - 3 delegates +2 from New Hampshire
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Larry Hogan - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
Candace Owens - 0 delegates

Nikki Haley's burst in support statewide is in large part credited to her endorsement by Gov. Chris Sununu and his family, as well as from former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte. Even so, some argue that her vote totals of just under 20 percent are somewhat disappointing compared to other candidates on the ballot such as Sasse (whose near 14 percent totals were boosted in part by the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader) and Pompeo (whose endorsement by Sen. Don Bolduc helped him with undecided "Trump Republicans"). Christie's strong debate performance the weekend before is believed to have helped him with New Hampshire primary voters, whereas Pence and Cruz saw no change with their numbers (though it is important to note that unlike Iowa, New Hampshire is not particularly a hotbed for social conservatives). However, their relatively weak 6th and 7th place finishes are cause for concern with the first Super Tuesday on March 5th on the horizon. Republicans will have South Carolina and Nevada to themselves in 11 days as the Democrats already held their contests in those states, but the former state is not expected to get as much attention due to Haley's strong performance in her home state, meaning that much of the barnstorming will be centered around the latter save for Saturday's upcoming debate in Greenville, South Carolina.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE/EDITOR'S NOTE: Colorado just did it again, so I'm just going to elaborate a little and break beyond the norms of merely updating a TL to deliver some little nuggets on this matter - and I don't mean the basketball team.

The "accidental Senator" Michael Bennet may as well be the 2022 equivalent of Harry Reid after a hard-right conservative (one-term State Representative Ron Hanks) from an area south of Colorado Springs ended up being the only Republican to prevail out of the party's assembly for the U.S. Senate nomination. The only other Republican remaining on the ballot, Denver-area construction company CEO Joe O'Dea, entered the race by petition and is already aiming to position himself as the "lesser of two evils" candidate in the Republican primary, which may not sit well with the election truthers who want to keep re-litigating and re-litgating a dead horse when they could have actually gotten off their butts and knocked on some doors for Trump instead of being "snowflakes" about some Karen or NT voter releasing the hounds on them over 45 during a horrible, nasty pandemic.

So with that in mind I will give you a little piece of my mind and say this: There were lots of problems with the way the election was handled in 2020, but it would be wiser for Republicans to focus their efforts on reforming the election process, toughening penalties for actions like stuffing ballots and simply - as I said - getting off their butts and reaching out to voters instead of constantly crowing about past elections (Seriously, what does a damn car or boat parade do in the end, other than jamming traffic and drawing attention to yourself?...I personally don't care for those regardless of which party is doing the bidding). Also, if you want a paper ballot that is fine, but getting rid of electronic voting altogether isn't going to solve anything...and if the Democrat still prevails, then was the forced jettisoning of electronic voting really worth it?

Going back to the assembly, if Eli Bremer had either qualified via petition or prevailed out of the grassroots-heavy state GOP assembly, or if at least the threshold were lower than the arbitrary 30 percent bar, he would have been a fantastic nominee IMHO for the Republican nomination against Bennet. Unless Hanks is forced to pivot to appeal to Republicans who aren't interested in endless talk about 2020 and demand their candidates focus on 2022 or said election truthers learn to live with O'Dea, I could see a situation quite similar to Sharron Angle who lost Nevada to Harry Reid in 2010. As it stands, IRL and in this TL, Bennet once again survives, and Colorado Republicans have no one else to blame but themselves for the way they ran their nominating process. They should take a page from Virginia in 2021 which used a ranked-choice process to select their nominees, for which the results were quite fantastic. Just ask Glenn Youngkin...

Thank you for coming to my TED talk. Now, back to the TL...

February 14, 2024
WARREN ROMPS THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AS DEMOCRATS PIVOT TO SUPER TUESDAY
In one of the least surprising results of the Democratic presidential primaries, Sen. Elizabeth Warren rolled through New Hampshire on Tuesday night, winning just under 37 percent of the vote on the strength of her strong support in areas along the Massachusetts and Vermont state lines and in the state capital of Concord, home to large numbers of white liberals concentrated in the state's government and academic centers along with voters long familiar with the Massachusetts Democrat and - to a lesser extent - fellow progressive and Vermont-based "democratic socialist" Sen. Bernie Sanders, whose supporters from 2016 and 2020 overwhelmingly favored Warren on Tuesday according to exit polls. Before a crowd at a rally in Concord, Warren proclaimed "Tonight, we are back in the driver's seat with our people-powered campaign to fight hard for the future of our great nation. Kamala Harris...take note!"

Vice President Kamala Harris, who finished with more than 23 percent of the vote, also addressed her supporters at a rally in Manchester where she also thanked her supporters and sent a clear message to her biggest rival in the Democratic primary: "Elizabeth Warren may have won this round, but Super Tuesday is around the corner and in the states we're headed to, the wind is at our back". Warren won a total of 10 delegates - including four in the 2nd District and three in the 1st, while Harris won 8 delegates including three in the 1st District and two in the 2nd. Both candidates also won two at-large delegates each as well as one each designated for party leaders and elected officials.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and former Sec. Pete Buttigieg were the only other Democrats to win delegates on Tuesday, with Polis barely qualifying with 15.07 percent of the vote statewide, enough for one at-large and one party leader delegate in addition to two delegates won in the 2nd District where he won nearly 20 percent of the vote. The last remaining delegate went to Buttigieg, who won one delegate in the 1st District with over 15 percent of the vote. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper finished further behind, with dozens of other Democrats including recently dropped out candidate Gina Raimondo receiving the less than one percent of remaining Democratic votes.

Tuesday's contest represents the last of the early contests for the Democrats, as Democrats in South Carolina and Nevada proceeded to move their respective contests to before the Iowa caucuses this year in hopes of drawing more attention to minority constituents in those states. Asides from two upcoming debates in Boston and Dallas, the next major contest for the Democrats will be on the first of three Super Tuesdays, set to commence on March 5th with over 40 percent of pledged delegates including those from California, Texas and North Carolina set to be doled out on that night. In most states depending on the strength of progressive voting blocs and minority populations, either Harris or Warren is in first place with the other in second, with the other four remaining candidates enjoying strong regional support between Polis in the western United States, Cooper in southern states, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar in the Midwest.

February 14, 2024
HALEY TRIUMPHS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, NO RIVALS DROP OUT AFTER "FIRST IN THE NATION" PRIMARY
Buoyed by 11th hour endorsements from the state's most prominent political family in the Sununus - including incumbent Governor Chris Sununu, Nikki Haley won New Hampshire's traditional "first in the nation" primary by a small but sizable margin on Tuesday - just under 20 percent of the vote and less than six percent more than her closest rivals in Sen. Ben Sasse (13.95 percent) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (13.21), earning a total of five delegates based on statewide results along with six additional ones earned from remaining delegate spots as six candidates qualified for delegates in the Granite State. Speaking before a jubilant crowd at Tuscan Village in Salem, near the Massachusetts border, on Tuesday night, Haley called her victory "a clear sign that we are now the frontrunners in the race to take back our country from Joe Biden and his failed agenda", and also warned her supporters against becoming complacent: "Complacency is the last thing we need, because this race is not over and our opponents are waiting to find an opening for which they can run up the middle and snatch victory from our hands".

Meanwhile Sasse, who spoke to his supporters at a gathering in Nashua, viewed his second-place finish as a "clarion call that we are now in the mix" and proof that his performance in Iowa last week was not a fluke, while DeSantis implored his supporters in Manchester to "keep fighting because you can bet we are moving forward and going all the way to the last fight!". Both Sasse and DeSantis, as well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who finished fourth with over 10.5 percent of the vote, won three delegates in New Hampshire. The remaining four delegates were split between former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence, who both won over 10 percent of the vote and two delegates each. Pompeo and Christie both benefited from the endorsement of Sen. Don Bolduc in the case of the former and a strong debate performance on Saturday night for the latter. Both vowed to continue their campaigns, even though Christie himself dropped out in 2016 after New Hampshire's primary then. "We are going to Nevada, and we are going to Super Tuesday. This time, we're really in it to win!", Christie proclaimed.

Sen. Ted Cruz had the most disappointing performance of the night, finishing seventh with nearly 7.7 percent of the vote and no delegates. Despite rumors that he will drop out of the race, Cruz also vowed to stay in: "We are going to Nevada and South Carolina next week, and after that we are going to Texas where we will prevail!". Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (6.45 percent) and Sen. Marco Rubio (5.15 percent) also vowed to continue their campaigns even though their chances of winning the Republican nomination have gotten even more perilous. Candace Owens, who won a paltry 1.64 percent of the vote, also did not suspend her campaign as she vowed to "give Republicans a choice if they can't find it in some of the so-called frontrunners" and also remarked "The only thing worse than electing a weak establishment Republican as the nominee is not giving voters who crave an alternative exactly that".

Republicans will have Nevada's closed caucuses and South Carolina's open primary to themselves in eleven days on Saturday, February 24th, as the Democrats already held their contests last month in a deviation from the traditional conventional wisdom of starting the nominating process in Iowa and New Hampshire. However, Nikki Haley is widely expected to win her home state with polls now showing the former South Carolina Governor-turned-U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations with a shot to win an absolute majority of the statewide vote. Consequently, most of the Republicans will now be headed to Nevada save for an upcoming GOP debate in Greenville, South Carolina this coming Saturday the 17th, though some Republicans such as DeSantis and Owens have announced their intentions to campaign in South Carolina before and after the debate, with the latter performing more strongly in South Carolina's statewide polls than in Nevada's.

[SaintStan86]

February 14, 2024
CAITLYN JENNER ENDORSES RON DeSANTIS: "HE HAS CAPTURED MY HEART, AND AMERICA'S TOO"
On Wednesday, which also happened to be Valentine's Day, former Olympic gold medalist and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during a live interview on NBC's Today while he was promoting his latest work in his post-reality TV era. In endorsing DeSantis, the former Olympian previously known as Bruce Jenner cited DeSantis's "steadfast leadership rooted in courage when everyone else wanted him to compromise for posterity's sake" as well as his outspoken defense of legislation preventing transgendered women from participating in women's sports, citing "If you really think about it, the ones who are advocating for this in defiance of physical reality don't even watch sports let alone play them". "He has captured my heart, and America's too", Jenner continued dotingly. Jenner's outspoken conservative views, especially amongst the transgender minority within the LGBT community, have made him a popular figure with LGBT Republican and conservative circles including the Log Cabin Republicans, who regarded Jenner as "a fearless defender of conservatism and our Constitution within the GOP who reflects the positive family values espoused by a 'silent majority' of LGBT Americans".

DeSantis's endorsement by Jenner is viewed with some slight skepticism from certain social conservative circles, with one fringe social conservative even going as far as implying that he would write-in a candidate if DeSantis were the nominee over Jenner's endorsement. At the same time, however, Jenner's endorsement is met with near-universal condemnation by Democrats, who mocked Jenner as "a sacrificial lamb for those who wish to undermine LGBTQIA+ voters". Regardless, the endorsement is met with considerable intrigue within the political world, and DeSantis heartily embraces the endorsement. "Caitlyn Jenner is one of America's greatest treasures and a true role model in the LGBT community who understands the realities of competition in the real world, which are rooted in common sense and human nature...something Democrats have completely forgotten". Sen. Ted Cruz, who was viewed more positively than other candidates from 2016, remarked "Of course Caitlyn's lifestyles is not exactly universally received in my circles, but I have no doubt that Caitlyn Jenner is an American icon both when she was Bruce Jenner winning gold in Montreal and as Caitlyn today. That is something we all must understand. I was honored to have viewed the most favorably by her in 2016 and I would have loved to have her endorsement today, but again it's her call and it only motivates me, if anything, to fight harder", even though Jenner's snub of Cruz marks yet another lost endorsement opportunity for the Texas U.S. Senator.

February 15, 2024
HILLARY CLINTON ENDORSES KAMALA HARRIS: "OUR CHANCE TO MAKE HISTORY"
On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris received what many consider her biggest endorsement yet, receiving the endorsement of 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton. The former First Lady-turned-Secretary of State, in endorsing Harris, made her endorsement official on her YouTube channel: "I have waited for this moment all along to make my endorsement, and now that time has come. With so much at stake in this country, and in this world, the last thing we need is to squander our chance to make history. That is why today I am proud to endorse Kamala Harris to become our 47th President of the United States of America". The endorsement notably does not feature Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, who according to his own spokesperson has stated that the former President himself "has not made an endorsement and may not need to", though the spokesperson did acknowledge that if Harris were to prevail as the Democratic nominee, "Bill will be right behind Kamala getting her elected".

Harris, who received news of the endorsement while meeting with students at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado, site of a horrible mass shooting that took place during the twilight years of Clinton's reign as First Lady, thanked Clinton for her friendship and used the endorsement to declare "Hillary Clinton's endorsement today highlights that our frontrunner status as the leading Democrat to hold the White House for President Biden is here to stay". Her chief rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, was less enthused about the news in her speech to supporters in Duluth, Minnesota, "No doubt Hillary Clinton has blazed trails for women and progressives everywhere, but the last thing we need is to continue going down the same failed path of Democrats who seek more value in comprising than standing tall like the Republicans do, and Kamala Harris isn't going to change the narrative".

Progressive bloggers and podcasters were especially perturbed by Clinton's endorsement of Harris, including Ana Kasparian of The Young Turks who remarked, "Of course we've been down this road before with Hillary Clinton, who comes from the same flock that Kamala Harris emerged out of - always pretending to be progressive while taking money from corporate Democrats who seek to continue to undermine progress". Kasparian's TYT co-host, Cenk Uygur, also expressed disdain for the endorsement: "Of course we know where this will all lead us, and if anything we must go all in to make sure Elizabeth Warren is the nominee just to spite the faded Clinton dynasty". Another liberal podcaster, Kyle Kulinski, was especially loathsome of Clinton's endorsement and vowed to go "all in for Elizabeth Warren" despite his past criticisms of her as a "fake progressive". "Elizabeth Warren may not be perfect, but she is the only hope left for progressive change in this country...if she doesn't prevail, then I am going to encourage my listeners to vote for the Green Party candidate. If that means Trump 2.0 gets elected, too bad...Democrats need to learn to fight for their principles and let the corporatist and racist Republicans smear them, because in the end the truth will come out and the truth is on the progressives' side."

February 16, 2024
CBS NEWS ANNOUNCES FIELD FOR UPCOMING GOP DEBATE IN SOUTH CAROLINA
On Friday's edition of CBS Mornings, anchor Gayle King released the field for Saturday night's Republican presidential debate in Greenville, South Carolina, which is set to take place at the Peace Center (actually named for a prominent South Carolina family, that of late former U.S. Senator Roger Peace, who contributed a considerable sum to the venue's construction in 1990) on Saturday night beginning at 8pm ET. The debate will be broadcast on CBS along with a follow-up post-debate town hall with audience members from the evening's debate at the adjacent Wyche Pavilion, a former Duke's Mayonnaise headquarters office-turned-covered outdoor wedding venue on the waterfront of the Reedy River, and will be moderated by King, Face the Nation anchor Margaret Brennan, CBS News White House Correspondent Major Garrett, and former Trump administration staffers Reince Priebus and Mick Mulvaney, the latter two of whom are both CBS News contributors with Priebus also serving as a contributor to Fox News (primarily during Sean Hannity's eponymous program).

To qualify for the debate, candidates must achieve one of three qualifiers: a top five finish in the Iowa caucuses, a top five finish in the New Hampshire primary, or at least five percent of either national polling or polling within South Carolina. All candidates will then be sorted in regards to their stage placement by qualifier followed by their polling average within the Palmetto State.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE FEBRUARY 17TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CBS @ Greenville, SC)
Candidate	Avg. (2/16)	Poll A (2/15)	Poll B (2/13)	Poll C (2/10)	Poll D (2/8)	SC Avg.
PARTICIPATING (Top 5 finish in Iowa)
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	12.25	13	14	11	11	42
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	19.5	19	20	20	19	12
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	15.5	14	15	17	16	8
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	10.75	10	9	12	12	5
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	8.75	10	9	7	9	5
PARTICIPATING (Top 5 finish in New Hampshire)
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	5.5	7	5	6	4	3
PARTICIPATING (At least 5% polling either nationwide or in South Carolina)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	7.75	8	7	7	9	8
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	2.25	2	2	3	2	5
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	5.75	6	7	4	6	4
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	5	5	5	4	6	3

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR FEBRUARY 17TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

9. Rubio

7. Cruz

5. Pompeo

3. Pence

1. Haley

2. DeSantis

4. Sasse

6. Christie

8. Owens

10. Hogan

As expected, Haley will be positioned front and center on the debate stage in Greenville, as despite placing third nationally amongst the candidates, she holds a large lead in her home state where she enjoys "favorite daughter" status and is widely expected to win at least a sizable number of the state's 50 delegates, with her strongest support being recorded according to polling in the Columbia suburbs (where Haley once served in the state House) and around Charleston (where she enjoys the support of Lowcountry-based Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Nancy Mace, among others). Despite being a Clemson grad, her leads are reportedly smaller in and around the Upstate region where Pence and Cruz are registering sizable support from that region's large base of evangelical Christians, while DeSantis enjoys broad support in suburban areas statewide from 10-15 percent. Sasse and Pompeo, along with Owens (who will be making her first debate appearance since last December's debate in Las Vegas), have also registered some sizable support within South Carolina amongst fiscal conservatives in the suburbs and college students in such towns as Clemson, Charleston and Columbia (Sasse), military and veterans along the Atlantic coast (Pompeo) and some Black conservatives (Owens).

However, given Haley's sizable support here, most of the candidates have chosen to primarily focus on Nevada and its 30 delegates, with almost all of the campaign activity being situated in and around populous Clark County, home to Las Vegas. In the Silver State's recent presidential preference primary for both parties, held on February 6th, Haley eked out a narrow victory followed by DeSantis and Pence, with Sasse and Pompeo rounding out the top five. (The Democratic equivalent also saw a narrow win for Vice President Kamala Harris, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren finished a close second despite winning the state's earlier caucuses.) Much of the pressure at this point for the Republicans centers on Christie, who is aiming to capitalize on his robust performance in New Hampshire to gain favor with caucusgoers in Nevada, and Cruz, who is attempt to stop his seemingly never-ending backslide after a series of mediocre debates, some of which involved unpopular viewpoints or gaffes that may have hindered him in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[SaintStan86]

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: User "Excel23"

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Michael Vadon

The Peace Center in Greenville, South Carolina, site of the February 17, 2024 Republican presidential debate.

February 17, 2024
REPUBLICANS FACE-OFF IN 'SOUTHERN SHOWDOWN' DEBATE THAT WAS ANYTHING BUT "PEACE"-FUL
With apologies to Elton John, Saturday night seemed alright for fighting when it came to the ten Republicans on stage at the Peace Center in Greenville, South Carolina, as the evening's debate looked more like a war of words than anything resembling peace with votes and delegates in South Carolina and Nevada's contests on the line next week. Televised on CBS with a follow-up from select audience members after the debate, the debate turned into a real "Southern Showdown" that turned into a battle of personalities as favorite daughter Nikki Haley, fresh off a win in New Hampshire, aimed to further add to her delegate totals beyond her home state of South Carolina with other candidates jockeying for position - and votes.

One of the major topics discussed with relevance to the region's conservative-leaning population was the future of the Supreme Court. When asked by moderator Major Garrett if expanding the Supreme Court were to be an option under complete Republican control, Sen. Ted Cruz explained, "Realistically, it doesn't make much sense to expand the courts without asking ourselves if doing so were to be in the best interests of our Constitution". Cruz though did point to looming retirements from the likes of Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, as well as "somewhat surprisingly moderate" voting records from Chief Justice John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh, as potential threats to the conservative majority status of the court. "Before we even think about expanding, let's make sure our conservative justices are young and ready to fill their shoes so their seats don't end up in the hands of activist liberals".

Sen. Ben Sasse, while agreeing with Cruz, pointed out that "if I were to expand the Supreme Court, I would do so without worrying about the partisan labels because at the end of the day, you're wanting to nominate a judge approved by the Constitution, not by whichever party controls the Senate", while also suggesting that any expansion of SCOTUS should require input from the minority party. Former Gov. Larry Hogan advocated forcefully for expanding the courts, pointing to the unwieldy size of the Ninth Circuit covering California and several western states and the Eleventh Circuit in Atlanta which gets more than half their cases from Florida. "When most of your cases in one circuit come from outside where the court is housed - Los Angeles to San Francisco, Miami to Atlanta, for instance, it's time to consider reforming the Supreme Court to reflect our current population", continued Hogan.

Three of the leading non-Haley candidates also jockeyed for position as a "more conservative alternative" to Haley, by comparing their steadfast conservatism to Haley's "somewhat ersatz principles", per Cruz's words. When asked by moderator Reince Priebus as to how to handle culture war issues, Gov. Ron DeSantis pointed to his dealings with the Walt Disney Company in the wake of legislation targeted LGBT education: "Unlike Nikki Haley, I will not bow to woke corporations who attempt to sidestep individuals and families who often don't have near the resources to fortify themselves from vocal minorities of woke mobs". Former Gov. Chris Christie, in response to DeSantis, argued that "if a 'too big to fail' company were to poke the bear with me, I'd strike back hard even if it cost us a federal contract and potentially endangered our national security. Except we'll be just fine, for there are several companies who don't bow to woke Wall Street capital that would jump at the opportunity of a federal defense contract". Haley was not impressed with either response, "No one has fought harder to fight wokeness in our culture than I have, and unlike Gov. Christie, I wouldn't be boasting about bidding for federal contracts - very rich of him considering he crusaded against corruption and then got caught red-handed shutting down a bridge in his home state", alluding to the Bridgegate scandal which tarnished Christie's reputation in 2013.

While most pointed to matters of national security and culture wars in attempting to differentiate themselves from Haley, Vice President Mike Pence took up a long-standing social issue with many Republicans, as moderator Mick Mulvaney (once a colleague of Pence's in the House) asked if the overturning of Roe v. Wade would lead to the abolishing of abortion. "As Vice President, I convinced Donald Trump to shift towards an unprecedented pro-life stance across his administration. As President, I am going to advocate for a federal heartbeat bill outlawing abortion in this country once brain waves have been detected in an unborn fetus". Hogan criticized Pence from the left, citing "a potential constitutional crisis as well as one of human capital if we were to take an issue best left to the states and nationalize it", while DeSantis expressed skepticism about Pence's intentions and alluded to Pence's dealing with public accommodations during his governorship in Indiana, "I'm certain Mike Pence means well. I'm for a heartbeat bill too, but I'm not sure if someone who crowed about transgendered bathrooms and then caved to the woke mob is the right advocate for defending the sanctity of life".

Haley's longstanding presence in South Carolina also became a point of discussion during the debate. When asked by moderator Margaret Brennan if her post-gubernatorial experience has somewhat diminished her ability to connect with the folks who sent her to the Governor's Mansion in 2010, Haley replied "I may have been all around the world, but my politics haven't changed everywhere I've gone". She also pointed out that such matters as foreign policy, for which Haley has become known for on the national and international stage, have considerable relevance to South Carolinians given the state's history with the American Revolution and the Civil War, its large military population, and the presence of such companies as Boeing, Volvo and BMW whose South Carolina-built products are in use worldwide. "It's safe to say the world goes through South Carolina today, and it's because of the business-friendly policies I worked so hard to create as Governor that continue to pay for themselves".

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo responded to Haley by pointing out that "several of those deals actually came when Nikki Haley was State Representative Haley who railed against the 'corporate welfare' that it took to bring those companies here". "You can say all you want about how I'm bought and paid for by Cessna, but as President I'm not going to take a dime from Boeing or Cessna or anyone", Pompeo continued. Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, took issue with whether or not Haley is the same person after having served under Trump while alluding to 2016: "I thank the Ambassador for her fantastic endorsement of me in 2016, but it doesn't change the fact that seemingly 'South Carolina First' Haley became 'Globe Trekking Haley', but for what? At least as a Senator from Florida, I may be connected with the world, but I don't abandon my Miami roots just because I deal with foreign actors".

Making her first appearance since last December in a televised debate, Candace Owens drew positive remarks for highlighting the importance of prioritizing family farmers - including Black farmers whose numbers are sizable in South Carolina - in future Farm Bills, as well as prioritizing vocational training and education for future career readiness programs; "Not every child is going to go to college, and any future President who fails to understand this shouldn't even be in the classroom". However, Owens stirred controversy when moderator Gayle King asked Sasse if his desires for a "clean break" from the Trump era amounts to "doubling down on white suburban voters at the expense of minorities, including those who shifted to Trump from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama beforehand".

Sasse responded by calling the question "ridiculous" and stated that "Republicans should be courting new voters on the basis of their character, as Dr. Martin Luther King would do, not on the basis of their race", but further alluded that he would rather lose by courting "Black professionals who worked hard to earn a living and buy a nice house and a nice car" than win by courting "the crowd that talks about 'cash money' and 'doing donuts in the street' instead of investing in education and starting a business", and compared pandering to the latter to "flying Confederate flags to woo Southern voters or blaring loud dance music to court LGBT voters". Sasse further continued, "If Republicans can't appreciate upwardly mobile voters who worked hard to earn a living instead of dismissing them as snobs and spoiled brats or worse just for preferring something other than the clearance rack at Walmart or the dollar menu at McDonald's, then what's the point of 'America First'?".

Owens took Sasse's response as a slight, and alluded to her own story in Connecticut. "In Connecticut, I had to deal with racism growing up in a mostly white area where I struggled to fit in - with a mostly white student body where if you didn't buy the entire Abercrombie & Fitch catalog you were essentially a nobody. I eventually overcame that disadvantage to become a leading Black conservative voice." She then turned to Sasse, "By simply telling Black people to dress like the popular kids to gain acceptance in the conservative movement, you're essentially telling us we don't matter. That makes you a racist. And if that's the direction you insist the GOP should be going in, then don't be surprised if Republicans are relegated to permanent minority status for the rest of our lives - something Donald Trump has worked hard not to do, while you spent your media capital trashing him on TV and to your voters". Sasse responded by denying allegations of racism and taking shots at Owens' Blexit movement, "It's hypocritical to call one a racist when you spend 90 percent of your political capital fixating on getting one race to switch en masse when the reason Black people vote strongly Democrat is systemic, and no sort of identity politics Trump engaged in is going to change their minds".

Following the debate, CBS broadcast an hour-long discussion with select debate participants in gathering their thoughts on the debate and whether or not it was enough to sway them. One participant who previously leaned towards Haley now suggested she would support DeSantis due to concerns that Haley "may not be convincing enough on defending our values", while an undecided voter said he would now vote for Hogan because "he's the least crazy of the whole bunch". A Black college student who previously supported Owens now said he leaned towards Sasse, arguing that "victimhood like what Candace described seems more like something AOC would do" and insisted that Sasse is "not a racist", while a senior citizen who was previously for Pence said he is voting for Haley because "she seems more interested in making the country better instead of talking about social engineering, and I'm 100% pro-life!".

Critics argued that the debate was too focused on personal attacks between the candidates, with Cruz criticizing CBS's handling of the debate as "a biased and skewed hot mess that really didn't give viewers at home an accurate picture of where I stand" and others saying that the debate focused too much on social issues instead of bread-and-butter issues like the economy and even matters like immigration (save for a short spiel by Pompeo who as President vowed to withhold funding for all appropriations from "sanctuary cities", even going as far as arresting district attorneys who "refuse to enforce our immigration laws"). However, much of the trending social media from the debate focused on Owens' spat with Sasse on Black outreach, with critics of Sasse referring to him as #UncleBen and "Hucklebenny Finn", Owens being accused of the sort of "victimhood" she has long claimed to rail against through her Blexit movement, and Trump disparaging "Little Ben Sasse" as "Uncle Ben Sasse". The biggest casualty in the end, however, came from a very surprising source...

[2016]

@SaintStan86,
If Haley is favoured in her Home State of South Carolina she is also likely favoured in Virginia which votes on Super Tuesday 1 I think given the large swath of Military Voters the State has.

Very enjoyable TL

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Before I continue with this TL, good luck to everyone competing in Indiana and Ohio tonight. This TL will be updated accordingly based on the results, but it really won't change much besides some of the players involved should my predicted choices not sail through. And it's safe to say I can tell who the winners are, Rob Portman's open seat notwithstanding.

February 18, 2024
CNN FIRES LEGAL ANALYST JEFFREY TOOBIN OVER RACIAL SLUR
On Sunday evening, CNN announced that it had fired its longtime legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin after Toobin uttered a racial slur to describe Candace Owens during a heated discussion over Owens' debate war of words with Sen. Ben Sasse during last night's debate in South Carolina, in which Owens accused Sasse of being a racist over comments Sasse made regarding whether or not to woo back white suburban voters or further target minority voters in future Republican presidential victories. During Sunday's broadcast of State of the Union, Toobin made a statement arguing that "we shouldn't be afraid anymore to say _____ on TV because if Candace Owens wants to play the victim card while also uttering about whites being victims of racism, then maybe we shouldn't be censoring the word _____ anymore. I know I won't". Almost immediately, host Jake Tapper abruptly cut off the conversation and immediately cut to a commercial break as CNN faced a multitude of complaints from viewers - not only from conservatives typically critical of the network, but also from Black viewers who expressed disgust at Toobin's remarks.

In a statement, CNN Global CEO Chris Licht issued an apology for Toobin's remarks, arguing "There is no place for the aggressive promotion of such hateful remarks that violate the basic norms of not only good journalism but also human decency. As much as we believe in free speech to give viewers "Facts First", hateful speech like the words said on air today have no place at CNN. Therefore, we made the regrettable decision today to relieve Jeffrey Toobin of his duties as our senior legal analyst". Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav, whose company owns CNN and who supervises Licht, issued an apology to viewers and shareholders, "Across all of our properties, an inclusive environment is critical to fostering productive dialogue and creating memorable entertainment, news and sports programming at the same time. The actions of today shall not define tomorrow for our company, and we deeply regret the hurt that Mr. Toobin's actions may have caused to some of our viewers".

This is not the first time that Toobin has drawn himself into controversy and out of a major presidential contest where his legal analysis stood to be valuable in election analysis; in October 2020 while on a Zoom call with staffers at The New Yorker and WNYC radio in New York City, Toobin was caught masturbating on-camera during the call. Despite apologies from Toobin, both media entities subsequently dismissed Toobin as a contributor following an internal investigation that revealed more egregious behavior than Toobin's apology warranted. An attorney for Toobin has stated that "legal avenues for a wrongful termination lawsuit against CNN will be considered in the coming days", but did not elaborate details in regards to any sort of mental health or sexual aggression issues associated with Toobin.

UPDATE (8/12/22): Jeffrey Toobin has officially left CNN on his own terms, and is sure to gain further exposure with his book on the Oklahoma City bombing that he intends to release in 2023. Here is a modified version of this incident without the CNN employment jargon...

February 18, 2024
WNET SUSPENDS FORMER CNN LEGAL ANALYST OVER RACIAL SLUR
During a panelist discussion on New York City PBS member station WNET, writer and former CNN legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin stirred controversy when he inadvertently uttered a racial slur to describe commentator and Republican presidential candidate Candace Owens, arguing that "we shouldn't be afraid anymore to say _____ on TV because if Candace Owens wants to play the victim card while also uttering about whites being victims of racism, then maybe we shouldn't be censoring the word _____ anymore. I know I won't". Owens made headlines during last night's debate in South Carolina, where she got into a spat with Sen. Ben Sasse, accusing the Nebraska Republican of being a "racist" for his negative views of minority conservatives in contrast to white suburban voters with regards to which demographics Republicans should target in the presidential election. Almost immediately, host Margaret Hoover (who also hosts Firing Line which is produced by WNET for PBS member stations across the country), abruptly cut off the conversation and immediately cut to clips of the debate without much explanation, as WNET's social media accounts became overwhelmed with complaints from viewers - from both Black viewers who expressed disgust at Toobin's remarks as well as conservatives who have long been critical of public television, even to the point of drives to defund PBS and NPR over political bias claims.

In response to Toobin's comments, WNET President/CEO Neal Shapiro condemned Toobin's comments and announced that Toobin has been "suspended indefinitely" from appearing on other programs produced by WNET, with Boston PBS powerhouse WGBH also announcing a similar move within moments of WNET's announcement. "WNET is committed to compelling, informative and inquisitive programming for its members, free of any bias that undermines our overall mission of entertaining, informing and educating the people of New York City and the greater Tri-State area with quality programming that is worth watching. Mr. Toobin's comments regarding Candace Owens - a Black presidential candidate - are not helpful to that mission and his comments rightfully have been condemned by WNET. To that extent, Mr. Toobin has been suspended indefinitely from appearing on our programs produced both locally and for other PBS member stations."

This is not the first time that Toobin has drawn himself into controversy and out of a major presidential contest where his legal analysis stood to be valuable in election analysis; in October 2020 while on a Zoom call with staffers at The New Yorker and WNYC radio in New York City, Toobin was caught masturbating on-camera during the call. Despite apologies from Toobin, both media entities subsequently dismissed Toobin as a contributor following an internal investigation that revealed more egregious behavior than Toobin's apology warranted. An attorney for Toobin, who left CNN in 2022, has stated that "legal avenues for a wrongful termination lawsuit against WNET - including matters relating to the First Amendment - will be considered in the coming days", but did not elaborate details in regards to any sort of mental health or sexual aggression issues associated with Toobin.[/s]

February 19, 2024
EARLY VOTING BEGINS IN TEXAS "FIRST IN THE NATION" PRIMARIES
Voters went to the polls in Texas beginning Monday for the first day of early voting in the Texas primaries, including a critical presidential primary where 244 pledged Democratic delegates and 162 Republican delegates are expected to be handed out; both numbers rank second to California in both parties for the most number of delegates to be handed out. While there have been efforts to reform Texas elections, either by closing primaries (which would have required voters to register with a party) or replacing the state's longstanding runoff election process with a ranked-choice voting system, those proposals never made it out of the Texas Legislature in last year's session, and as such the election will remain conducted as has been the case for decades. The presidential election is widely viewed as a major test for such leading candidates as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as a potential "last stand" for home state Sen. Ted Cruz who has thus far struggled to win delegates in the GOP primary.

The presidential election is far from the only contest on the ballot. With Cruz having chosen to run for President and not seek reelection to the Senate, his Senate seat has become a high-dollar contest that is widely viewed as a "must win" for both parties. So far polls on the Republican side have shown two U.S. Reps. - Dan Crenshaw of Houston and Lance Gooden from east of Dallas - to be the frontrunners, with two other U.S. Reps. - Chip Roy of Austin and Roger Williams of Weatherford near Fort Worth, former Texas GOP Chairman and one-time U.S. Rep. from Florida Allen West and state Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick competitive with the two frontrunners. The Republican primary has also drawn some noteworthy attention with the candidacy of another former U.S. Rep. in Will Hurd, a major Trump critic who has been endorsed by fellow former U.S. Rep. and Trump critic Adam Kinzinger, as well as the controversial campaigns of former Travis County GOP Chair Rob Morrow and conspiracy theorist and InfoWars host Harrison Smith whose conspiracy theories, baseless innuendos and antics drew unwanted attention including a riot at a televised debate in Houston last month that resulted in the arrest of dozens of audience members including InfoWars host Alex Jones whose antics and lewd behavior instigated the riot. 17 Republicans filed for the GOP nomination to succeed Cruz along with eight Democrats - with former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro and retired astronaut Scott Kelly (whose twin brother Mark is currently serving as a U.S. Senator from Arizona) leading the latter primary. Polls currently show the race as leaning towards a GOP hold, though polls have indicated a highly competitive race that will likely come to down whether or not Democrats can replicate Beto O'Rourke's 2018 numbers against Cruz in the suburbs, take back areas of South Texas that trended towards the GOP since 2020 and/or reduce their staggering defeat margins in rural Texas.

Several congressional races are also occurring throughout the state under a redrawn map after a federal court threw out the state's previous map last year; it eventually placed the redraw in the hands of a master panel after the Texas Legislature failed to produce an adequate map that satisfied the conditions of the court. Among notable changes, a third Democratic seat has been drawn in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex with the 24th now a majority Hispanic seat exclusive to downtown Dallas and western Dallas County and its current GOP incumbent (Beth Van Duyne) now the new incumbent in the northeast Tarrant/west Fort Worth-based 12th of retiring Republican Kay Granger. Other highlights include a radical altering of three west Houston congressional seats (two Republican-favored, one Democratic-leaning), with Democrat Lizzie Fletcher (7th) facing a tough reelection in a seat that voted twice against Trump but voted for Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin in 2022, and a realignment of the "fajita strips" in south Texas with Republican Michael Cloud (27th) and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (34th) facing competitive reelection bids; Gonzalez is viewed as being in more perilous territory than Cloud. Along with these congressional races include races for the entire Texas Legislature (which also saw its own complete redraw), as well the open Texas Railroad Commission seat being vacated by Craddick and various local and state judicial races, countywide races and partisan propositions for the Lege to handle in the upcoming session. The race will also be a major test of the GOP's competitiveness amongst suburban and South Texas Tejano voters, as well as a test of whether or not endorsements by former President Trump or other dignitaries such as outgoing Sen. Cruz still hold weight with voters.

February 20, 2024
GREENE STICKING WITH LINDELL, DRAWS PRIMARY CHALLENGERS IN GA-14
Despite Mike Lindell's decision to abandon the GOP in favor of a third-party run via the Constitution Party, Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is standing by her decision to endorse Lindell. The conservative firebrand, now in her second term (and first with full committee assignments that had been stripped from her in her first term) representing northwest Georgia including the northwestern fringes of the Atlanta suburbs, pointed to Lindell's steadfast focus on "overhauling the broken and unfair election system that Americans have lost faith in" and devotion to "continuing the America First policies that made Donald Trump's presidency successful" during an interview with Fox News host Tucker Carlson on his Fox Nation program Tucker Carlson Today. She also pointed to concerns that DeSantis "may be too good to be true" and dismissed suburban Republicans as being "far too calculating and appeasing" while defending her own constituents. "For those of us in northwest Georgia who live far from the all-too-accommodating places around Atlanta, it's all or nothing with us, meaning that if you're not sufficiently loyal (to Trump's policies) why even bother voting?"

While MTG attempted to make the argument that losing semi-rural and small-town Republicans in pursuit of going 'all in' on the suburbs would be perilous for the GOP, pointing to the 2021 Senate runoffs in Georgia where Republicans turned in an underwhelming performance in Greene's district without otherwise casting votes for Democrats, the comments did not sit well with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp nor Atlanta-based conservative talk radio host Erick Erickson, who both argued that dismissing suburban voters as liberals (in defiance of the GOP's strong suburban resurgence starting with Glenn Youngkin's 2021 gubernatorial triumph in Virginia) actually harmed GOP prospects in the Trump era and ultimately led to the election of "radical Democrats who threw parents under the bus in pursuit of a radical woke agenda" (per Erickson's words). Greene has also drawn two high-profile primary challengers to her district. One of them, neurosurgeon John Cowan, lost to Greene in the 2020 runoff and is backed by Kemp, while another, Andrea Saul, served as the former press secretary for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign and drew attention during the 2020 election when she endorsed President Biden over Trump in a letter alongside dozens of other Republican co-signers. Greene remains favored for reelection, but pundits argue a runoff could dramatically change things, if not a potential running mate bid for Greene herself on Lindell's ticket.

February 21, 2024
CBS REVEALS FIELD FOR THURSDAY'S DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IN BOSTON
On Wednesday's edition of CBS Mornings, anchor Gayle King revealed the field for tomorrow night's Democratic presidential debate in Boston, which will be held at the Roadrunner, an open floor music venue located west of Boston University in the Allston neighborhood, part of a mixed-use development that is also home to the headquarters of athletic footwear giant New Balance (hence the name). The debate will feature the same trio of CBS News correspondents who moderated last weekend's Republican debate (King, Face the Nation's Margaret Brennan and White House correspondent Major Garrett) along with former U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy III (who is also a contributor for CNN which loans some of its correspondents to CBS News including Anderson Cooper for 60 Minutes) and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, both of whom bridge the historical Kennedy family political foundation and the current progressive one for Massachusetts Democrats. The debate will begin at 8pm ET and will be also streamed on Paramount+, with a one-hour town hall-style follow up to take place following the debate at 10pm ET at The Track, an indoor running venue across the street from Roadrunner, with CBS Evening News anchor Norah O'Donnell serving as moderator.

To qualify for the debate, candidates must qualify via one of two methods: at least one pledged delegate from two of the four early states or at least 7 percent support in national polls. The candidates will be sorted on stage based on their finish in primaries; as Warren won Nevada and New Hampshire and Harris won Iowa and South Carolina, Warren will get the first spot due to her victory in the most recent contest in New Hampshire.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE FEBRUARY 22ND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CBS @ Boston, MA)
Candidate	Avg. (2/21)	Poll A (2/20)	Poll B (2/16)	Poll C (2/13)	Poll D (2/11)
PARTICIPATING (won pledged delegates in 2 of 4 states)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - NV, SC, IA, NH	27	27	28	27	26
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) - NV, SC, IA, NH	32.25	33	33	31	32
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) - IA, NH	12.25	12	13	11	13
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) - NV, NH	7.25	7	6	9	7
PARTICIPATING (national average of 7%+)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) - SC	7	7	6	7	8
NOT PARTICIPATING
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - IA	5	5	6	5	4

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR FEBRUARY 22ND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

4. Polis

2. Harris

1. Warren

3. Buttigieg

5. Cooper

Warren's first place finish in New Hampshire, as stated above, explains her placement in the middle of the stage, with her merely being from Massachusetts being a pure coincidence, while the placement of Buttigieg and then Polis is based on their overall national polling; even though Polis won more delegates in New Hampshire than Buttigieg, Buttigieg is polling comparatively stronger in the Midwest than Polis is in the west, even though pundits increasingly have started to view the Democratic contest as a two-candidate race between Harris and Warren. Sen. Klobuchar's disinvitation from this debate was declared "disappointing by the Minnesota Senator, but has indicated that "it does not mean I'm out of the race", pointing to ongoing early voting in states like Texas and has vowed to remain in the race through Super Tuesday, even though Klobuchar's chances have become virtually slim to none of winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

[SaintStan86]

MAJOR UPDATE: J.D. Vance has won the GOP nomination for the Senate in Ohio, and in this TL he will have won and taken his seat in the Senate. In this TL, Josh Mandel will have ruled out any possibility of running in 2024 since a lot of the conservative focus in this TL will be on Jim Jordan while Jon Husted is essentially the DeWine/establishment candidate. As for the House races, I have nailed it on my prediction that Erin Houchin won IN-09 and will be the incumbent both IRL and in this TL, but I do see Frank Mrvan prevailing in IN-01. As for Ohio, Max Miller (OH-07), J.R. Majewski (OH-09) and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (OH-13) will all have won their seats in this TL along with the venerable Steve Chabot (OH-01), reducing Democrats to just two seats in Ohio; with Chabot retiring in this TL (and perhaps likely IRL as well), defeated gubernatorial candidate John Cranley now runs and it becomes his race to lose. As per my projected Ohio redraw, Latta will now be running to represent Toledo in OH-05 while Majewski now gets a northern Ohio seat connecting all the manufacturing and tourism bases between Toledo and Cleveland (and north of the Columbus metro area), while Jim Jordan's open seat (now OH-08 after swapping district numbers with Warren Davidson (OH-04) will likely pave the way for a suburban Columbus Republican who stands to be favored here regardless of who the Dems put up here.

Meanwhile, in New York there is a new Lieutenant Governor in place of the ascendant Kathy Hochul: Antonio Delgado. In this TL, both are reelected despite the best efforts of New York State Republicans to capture it and Delgado will no longer be a candidate for the seat Paul Tonko has vacated in this TL. It's also very likely that New York may not even need a redraw after 2022 since the courts have already struck down the map and ordered it sent back. The Democrats who control the Legislature are still pushing their extreme gerrymander, but I don't see it happening. I will give a further update once the dust settles here (which means no updates on Long Island, Syracuse or Staten Island yet where the math has dramatically changed), but I am now going to predict in this TL that Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro will have narrowly won a special election over Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan in a battle of youthful exurban New York City county executives that will carry over to the general election, provided that the special election is not concurrent with the general.

February 22, 2024
DEMOCRATS DEBATE IN BEANTOWN BONANZA WITH SUPER TUESDAY LOOMING
On a Thursday night that would have been the 292nd birthday of George Washington, Democrats leaned in as they debated one another at the Roadrunner in Boston in the second-to-last debate before the Super Tuesdays converge. The debate, broadcast on CBS from the open-floor music venue near the headquarters of the athletic footwear manufacturer New Balance, felt more like a slog than a sprint as Democrats debated over many of the same issues already discussed many times over, but with an aim towards persuading last-minute voters in Massachusetts to turn out for Democrats in 12 days. But for the most part, the debate was more a pep rally than a battle of ideas as the debate focused on technical details like how to reach moderates in the general election.

As expected, the debate pitted more moderate and traditional Democrats focused on the traditional bread-and-butter issues of healthcare, education and infrastructure against a rising progressive tide advocating for "Medicare for All" and a "Green New Deal", among other liberal causes. When asked by moderator Joe Kennedy III, a former Massachusetts U.S. Rep. long associated with the former group who has not endorsed a candidate, if Democrats will need to pivot to the center to win over the suburban voters that fueled President Biden's 2020 victory and win back working-class voters who drifted to Donald Trump in 2016, Sen. Elizabeth Warren responded, "Being a former Republican, it is critical that we do work to win over voters who looked the other way. But we must also do so without sacrificing our principles to get there. The Republicans didn't look the other way when they took control of Congress in 2022, and Democrats shouldn't look the other way either this time".

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris stressed her extensive experience as a key advantage for her. In response to a question from moderator Major Garrett, Harris argued that "People are always going to look down upon the matter of experience when the situation is stacked against the incumbents. In reality, having the right kind of experience is what voters actually appreciate. My experience as a prosecutor in San Francisco, as a champion for the people in the Senate, and as Vice President to this great nation, is the kind of experience that Americans want in a President". She also stressed that her presidency does not amount to a "fourth term of Barack Obama" as Warren called it in recent ads.

For lower-polling candidates such as Gov. Roy Cooper, a big impression is viewed as a necessity to gain an edge with Democratic primary voters, especially in his home base in the South where his governorship of North Carolina - won in two close election battles - has been met with praise from pundits and voters alike. When asked about how Democrats can claim the mantle of "the party of law enforcement without alienating those who believe in racial justice" by moderator Gayle King, Cooper pointed to his handling of a incident involving an officer-involved shooting in Charlotte that led to civil unrest, among other matters. "People like to say that we don't respect our men and women in blue. In reality, police officers are the ultimate civil servants and under my watch as Governor, they have benefited from leadership that has empowered them, provided them competitive benefits and foster a sense of community within our state". Cooper also called #DefundThePolice one of the worst legislative ideas of the last decade and pointed to recent corruption at the Black Lives Matter organization as proof that "if we're going to take racial justice seriously, then it's important that those who advocate for it actually serve the people and not themselves".

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis also acknowledged the need to campaign beyond the party's liberal base if the party is to hold on to the White House. When asked by moderator and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick if there is still room for a technocratic Democratic Party in an era of populist frenzies against "out-of-touch elites", Polis responded "There is definitely space for that kind of Democrat" and pointed to his successes as a "socially liberal pro-business Governor in a state that has consistently elected such Democrats since 2010". Sen. Warren, however, warned that Polis's own successes (as well as those of his predecessor and Warren's colleague in the Senate, John Hickenlooper) may be fleeting: "You have to remember that you may have gotten lucky", as Warren pointed to the fact that Republicans had largely selected their nominees for major offices at assembly caucuses dominated by activist Republicans, pointing to the 2022 slate of Republicans that largely focused on Donald Trump's alleged grievances about the 2020 election instead of the sort of economic and cultural issues that galvanized Republicans in the Biden era.

Perhaps the most poignant moment of the night came from moderator Margaret Brennan when she asked former Sec. Pete Buttigieg if there is going to be room for his defacto chief campaign spokesperson David Letterman in his administration. Buttigieg responded, "Well, I think you never know. We all could use a sense of humor right now, and I'd even explore the possibility of at least having David Letterman host my inauguration". Throughout the debate, Buttigieg also sought to distinguish himself as a "principled moderate alternative to more progressive carnival barkers with professional titles". He also bragged that he could relate "to the everyman in America", pointing to his military service and insisting that he's "the one who wears the pants": "Chasten (Buttigieg's husband) is the one who sings 'I'm Every Woman' in the shower".

While seen as a "drill rehearsal" of sorts for the upcoming Super Tuesdays, this is not the last debate for the Democrats. The last chance for the Democrats will be next weekend in Dallas, with NBC televising the debate and setting its own rules for the debate that may include Minnesota U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who was not invited to participate in this debate.

February 23, 2024
HALEY, DeSANTIS PICK UP MAJOR ENDORSEMENTS IN NEVADA
On Friday, with less than 24 hours to go before Nevadans head to the polls, several key Republican figures in Nevada handed out their endorsements for President in tomorrow's caucuses, and the endorsements were somewhat unsurprising. On Friday, GOP mega donor Miriam Adelson, the widow of casino magnate and fellow GOP mega donor Sheldon Adelson, endorsed former Ambassador Nikki Haley on the basis of the former South Carolina Governor's "disciplined tenure as Ambassador to the United Nations" as well as her outspoken support for Israel. Adelson's endorsement is considered a "queenmaker" of sorts in Nevada Republican circles, and Haley touted her latest endorsement as "proof that the momentum in this race remains with us".

Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis picked up two major endorsements from two statewide Republicans elected in the 2022 midterms: Gov. Joe Lombardo and Sen. Adam Laxalt. In making their endorsement, Lombardo cited DeSantis's "tough resolve in governing on principle when so many others chose to cave" as well as his willingness to send his own state National Guard and others to the Mexican border during the ongoing refugee crisis at the border, while Laxalt (whose grandfather was the late U.S. Sen. Paul Laxalt, the famous "first friend" of Ronald Reagan) pointed to DeSantis's "distinguished record as a college baseball star, a member of our military, and a public servant" and "willingness to stand up to the woke crowd and win without losing economic leverage". Former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo, meanwhile, listed the endorsement of several dozen retired military generals and other military officers linked to Nellis Air Force Base and other military installations across the state in full-page ads in major newspapers across Las Vegas and Reno, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won the endorsement of former Gov. Brian Sandoval, whose tenure as Governor dovetailed with Christie's and whom often worked together on matters such as shared online gambling pools during their gubernatorial tenures.

Overall, polling continues to generally show Haley with a narrow lead in the state, but DeSantis has essentially closed the gap and pundits argue that his major endorsements from two freshly minted Republicans popular with conservative and Trump supporters could make him a "comeback kid" of sorts. With South Carolina essentially a "lost cause" for any Republican other than Haley, Nevada has become the nexus of the entire GOP through at least Saturday night's caucuses in the Silver State.

February 24, 2024
NEVADA, SOUTH CAROLINA VOTERS HEAD TO THE POLLS FOR REPUBLICANS
Saturday was a busy day for election workers and pundits across Nevada and South Carolina, as hundreds of thousands of voters across both states cast their votes in presidential contests to determine delegates to the Republican National Convention. In Nevada, 30 delegates - five of them gained in the 2022 midterms following congressional, gubernatorial and legislative victories there - are expected to be handed out in caucuses beginning in the early evening tonight, while voters in South Carolina are expected to hand out 50 delegates when the polls close at 7pm ET. As many of the first Nevada caucuses are expected to close after 5pm PT (8pm ET), the race is likely to be projected for Haley in her home state before Nevadans even settle into their caucus locations on the other side of the country, with the first results likely to come in more sparsely populated regions such as eastern Nevada's Elko.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina the focus has been on not if Nikki Haley can win an absolute majority in her home state or even when, but how much her percentage will be and whether or not any other candidates can win delegates. One pundit even admitted that he was not invested in South Carolina and "cashed all his chips into" predicting Nevada, "where the action is" says the unnamed pundit. FITSNews, a South Carolina-based independent news source that at times has skewered the Republican establishment in the Palmetto State, acknowledged that "while we do have our differences with her over the years as she rose from relative obscurity in Columbia to become potentially our first Madam President, we have no doubt that Nikki Haley remains as beloved in her home state as ever and look forward to seeing her through to the very end".

[2016]

Nevada is a MUST-WIN for Ron DeSantis otherwise Haley is running away with the Nomination.

[SaintStan86]

SOUTH CAROLINA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Per the rules outlined by the South Carolina Republican Party, 21 of the 50 delegates will be handed out by congressional district in this open primary, with each of South Carolina's seven congressional districts each allocating three delegates based on the primary results in each CD, with the winner receiving all three of the district's delegates. The remaining 29 delegates will be awarded statewide to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Nikki Haley - 52.10 percent
Ron DeSantis - 12.94 percent
Mike Pence - 7.31 percent
Ted Cruz - 6.22 percent
Ben Sasse - 4.81 percent
Mike Pompeo - 4.64 percent
Candace Owens - 3.41 percent
Marco Rubio - 3.24 percent
Chris Christie - 3.01 percent
Larry Hogan - 1.91 percent
(Remaining 0.41 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED (Winner-take-all in all groups)
CD1/Mount Pleasant, Beaufort & Hilton Head Island (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD2/West Columbia, Aiken & Blythewood (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD3/Anderson, Greenwood & Newberry (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD4/Greenville & Spartanburg (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD5/Rock Hill, Union & Camden (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD6/Columbia, Charleston & Sumter (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
CD7/Myrtle Beach, Florence & Georgetown (3 delegates): Nikki Haley
Statewide (29 delegates): Nikki Haley

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 67 delegates +50 from South Carolina
Ben Sasse - 10 delegates
Mike Pence - 10 delegates
Ron DeSantis - 8 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 7 delegates
Ted Cruz - 4 delegates
Chris Christie - 3 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Larry Hogan - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
Candace Owens - 0 delegates

Nikki Haley's victory in South Carolina was widely expected, with virtually all of the candidates having shifted their focus largely to Nevada for Saturday. Only DeSantis polled higher than 10 percent out of the other nine remaining contenders, with Haley's smallest numbers coming in the heavily conservative 3rd District in the Upstate (where DeSantis and Pence both polled higher than 10 percent). Haley's strongest performance is in the 1st and 7th Districts, where large numbers of more moderate "country club Republicans", retirees and northern transplants tend to populate in greater propensity; Haley's 63 percent margin in the 1st, where incumbent U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace has been very aggressive in campaigning for Haley, is the highest percentage statewide, though Haley also polled above 60 percent in her home 2nd District (which includes Lexington County where Haley served in the South Carolina House of Representatives before being elected Governor in 2010).

NEVADA
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

In contrast to South Carolina's open Republican primary, Nevada's Republican caucuses are closed to registered Republicans only. All 30 of the state's delegates are proportionally bound to candidates based on the results of today's caucus vote. In order to be eligible to earn a delegate, a candidate must receive the equivalent of 1/30 - 3.33% - to be eligible to earn a delegate.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Nikki Haley - 22.65 percent (7 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 22.51 percent (7 delegates)
Mike Pence - 10.26 percent (4 delegates)
Mike Pompeo - 10.13 percent (3 delegates)
Chris Christie - 9.05 percent (3 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 8.53 percent (3 delegates)
Ted Cruz - 6.53 percent (2 delegates)
Candace Owens - 3.45 percent (1 delegate)
Larry Hogan - 3.21 percent
Marco Rubio - 3.10 percent
(Remaining 0.58 percent went to other candidates)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 74 delegates +7 from Nevada
Ron DeSantis - 15 delegates +7 from Nevada
Mike Pence - 14 delegates +4 from Nevada
Ben Sasse - 13 delegates +3 from Nevada
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates +3 from Nevada
Chris Christie - 6 delegates +3 from Nevada
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates +2 from Nevada
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Larry Hogan - 1 delegate
Candace Owens - 1 delegate +1 from Nevada
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

Compared to the South Carolina result, the highly anticipated Nevada result is seen as a disappointment as Haley had a narrow lead going into the caucuses. However, DeSantis's late breaking endorsement from both Gov. Joe Lombardo and Sen. Adam Laxalt helped him to close the gap, and DeSantis also benefited from an electorate that was less relatively rural and moderate compared to other early states. Ideologically, while Haley's endorsement from Miriam Adelson helped her win near-unified support from moderates and foreign policy-focused voters, DeSantis had to contend with a conservative split but nonetheless prevailed over such rivals as Pence and Pompeo, as well as former Gov. Christie (whose endorsement from Sandoval also won him support that otherwise would have gone to Haley or DeSantis).

Sasse also performed modestly amongst both college students in and around UNLV and the University of Nevada in Reno, as well as from the state's sizable LDS population with eastern Nevada being closer to Salt Lake City than Nevada's two major cities. Cruz's performance meanwhile was nonetheless disappointing, and has led to further speculation that the two-term U.S. Senator's presidential campaign "is on life support", while Owens - after being shut out of a number of debates and being cast aside as a "dead on arrival" candidate, manages to finally win her first delegate in Nevada with barely 3.45 percent of the vote. While some speculate that Haley in a sense remains a frontrunner in the race, many argue that the momentum is likely to shift to DeSantis with many large states waiting in the wings in next month's series of Super Tuesdays. The only other major events upcoming on the Republican side before the first Super Tuesday on March 5th will be a debate next Friday from San Francisco (televised by NBC and Telemundo), followed by next Sunday's upcoming CPAC straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference which is widely expected to favor DeSantis.

[SaintStan86]

February 24, 2024
HALEY TRIUMPS IN SOUTH CAROLINA, EKES OUT WIN IN NEVADA AS DeSANTIS SURGES
On Saturday night, former Ambassador Nikki Haley won as expected in the South Carolina primary where the former home state Governor won over 52 percent of the vote. Born to Sikh immigrant educators in Bamberg County, where her father worked as a professor at historically Black Voorhees College, Haley rose to become the first Indo-American member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, and eventually became Governor in 2010 after three terms in the state House. At a packed rally at Finlay Park near the State Capitol in Columbia, Haley thanked her supporters, remarking "It feels good to be home!" while also reminding them "this race is far from over, and we are in the driver's seat".

Of the other Republicans, only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished higher than 10 percent with nearly 13 percent of the vote. Haley won in every congressional district throughout the state, with her largest performance being in the Lowcountry-based 1st District where she won over 63 percent of the vote, followed by over 60 percent in the suburban Columbia-based 2nd District (where Haley's residence is located) and the Myrtle Beach-based 7th. Haley's weakest performance was in the Upstate, where she polled over 45 percent in the 4th District (centered in Greenville and Spartanburg) and just over 40 percent in the 3rd District, home to Anderson and Greenwood as well as her alma mater of Clemson University. Both were also the only areas of the state where a Republican other than Haley or DeSantis polled above 10 percent, with former Vice President Mike Pence winning 14 percent in the 3rd and 12 percent in the 4th, though both Sen. Ted Cruz and former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo also polled over 7 percent in these districts. As each of the congressional district and statewide numbers are winner-take-all, Haley swept all of South Carolina's 50 delegates to take a commanding lead in total delegates.

The real action, though, occurred clear across the country in Nevada. There, Haley managed to pull off a razor-thin victory in the state, winning 22.6 percent of the vote over DeSantis's 22.5 percent. While Haley performed strongly in Washoe County to win seven delegates, DeSantis won Clark County where he benefited from the endorsement of Gov. Joe Lombardo, the former Clark County Sheriff, and also won seven delegates. Pence won four delegates in the Silver State, where his numbers ranged from 8 to 15 percent throughout the state, while Pompeo was joined by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Ben Sasse in winning three. At an open-air rally in Summerlin, DeSantis remarked "The momentum is clearly on our side, and we are ready to get moving as we go on to Super Tuesday!".

Sen. Ted Cruz turned in another disappointing performance, with his 7th place finish of over 6.5 percent and only two delegates raising new questions about the viability of his campaign. Still, Cruz remarked to supporters in Las Vegas "Let us not be troubled by the results of tonight. Instead, let's look forward to Super Tuesday where we are going to shock the world!" Conservative commentator Candace Owens, who was at a rally in Myrtle Beach with fellow commentator Graham Allen, celebrated her campaign's first-ever delegate, won tonight in Nevada with 3.45 percent of the vote. "Tonight has been a great night, because we are going to give the voters who want a true choice and not a lesser of two evils, and this is only the beginning!", though pundits argued that Owens's intention does not seem clear. Both former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Sen. Marco Rubio ended the night with no delegates; while Hogan has vowed to remain in through the first Super Tuesday (when Maryland is on the table), Rubio has not addressed much about the future of his campaign as a watch party in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina ended without the Florida Republican making an appearance.

And then came Monday morning...

[SaintStan86]

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Office of Gov. Ron DeSantis

"Today, I am proud to endorse my friend and the GREAT Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis to become our next President of the United States of America! They tried to tell him to settle down, and he chose to keep on walking! They told him to slam the brakes, and he kept the car going during the China Virus when most everyone else didn't! They told him to stop being harsh on woke corporations who betrayed patriotic Americans, and still kept going forward while not losing the things that made them great like Walt Disney World, Miami Beach and March Madness! And when they - the do-nothing establishment, the corrupt mainstream media and others who cried and whined every time he beat to the drum of his people - tried to stop him again, the voters responded and responded BIGLY last year! I never thought America would have a more courageous Governor than Ronald Reagan, but Ron DeSantis has filled his shoes quite nicely - and maybe mine, too! Ron DeSantis is TOUGH on crime, TOUGH on borders, will make our economy strong again, defend our Veterans, our Police and Firefighters, our Small Businesses and our hard-working patriotic Americans who love their country, but above all else he will STAND FOR OUR CONSTITUTION AND FOR AMERICA FIRST! Ron DeSantis believes that FREEDOM MATTERS, and that's why he has my support and Melania's too! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" - Former President Donald J. Trump through his Save America PAC

February 26, 2024
BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP ENDORSES RON DeSANTIS FOR PRESIDENT
On Monday afternoon, former President Donald Trump endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis outside his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, joined by former First Lady Melania Trump and the Governor and his wife, Casey. While some argued that the endorsement was unsurprising given that Trump was the least critical of the Florida Governor compared to other presidential candidates (most notably former Vice President Mike Pence), Trump admitted that he took his time with who to endorse for President, wanted to see how the debates and the early states played out, and did not come to his conclusion until Saturday night's primaries concluded. Still, Trump remarked during the press conference (which broke into daytime programming across the country), "Ron was my runaway favorite from day one. He is a major reason why I moved to Florida, and so many others have said the same thing. I will always love New York City and its people, HATE the leadership there, but with Ron DeSantis in charge Florida has felt like home."

To many pundits, DeSantis's endorsement by the former President is viewed as a major "shot in the arm" for the Governor's presidential campaign. Already a slight frontrunner despite underperforming in the early contests, DeSantis now stands to benefit greatly from his endorsement by Trump, with both polling support and campaign donations having soared following the news of the endorsement. Former Amb. Nikki Haley reacted to the news by admitting that "while I have never really been on good terms with Donald Trump since January 6th, I do stand by the work I have done with him as Ambassador to the UN and our campaign remains to committed to fighting for every vote and winning the Republican nomination for President". Sen. Ben Sasse also responded, "Of course we all know Ron DeSantis was the favorite all along. This does not change the future of our campaign, and we will fight onward to the very end", as did former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo, "As we continue to build support for our campaign, voters will sense that the urgent need for a battle-tested President ready to fight for the America we love means electing a President who is as tough abroad as he is at home".

February 26, 2024
PENCE: "WE NEVER REALLY SAW EYE-TO-EYE"; CRUZ VOWS TO MARCH ON DESPITE SNUB
Perhaps no presidential candidate has been more greatly affected by Donald Trump's endorsement today of Gov. Ron DeSantis than former Vice President Mike Pence. Once considered the President's most loyal foot soldier, Pence became the target of both Trump's scorn and that of his supporters after he voted to confirm the 2020 presidential results for Joe Biden, as a mob of Trump supporters and other instigators including supporters of Antifa and the QAnon conspiracy theory attacked the Capitol. In reacting to the news of Trump's endorsement, Pence admitted "We never really saw eye-to-eye after that day, and I know for sure that he will go to his grave continuing to leave that wound unhealed. I don't know what the future holds, but one thing is clear: we are moving forward with our campaign full steam to the very end, and our prospects are looking great in a lot of places".

However, Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign is in even more precarious position. Once considered a frontrunner for the presidential campaign, a recent series of gaffes, controversial remarks and issue stances that put him at odds with the conservative base that once was enthralled by him and other Republicans who felt his campaign represented "yesterday's news" have done a number on his presidential prospects. CNN political contributor Amanda Carpenter, herself a senior former Cruz staffer, remarked "To go from being a principled, honest conservative Senator who was not only attacked viciously by Trump, who even accused his own father of assisting Lee Harvey Oswald in assassinating JFK, only to go from asking voters to 'vote your conscience' to kowtowing to everything Donald Trump does, even greenlighting Trump's own baseless accusations of voter fraud, just shows why Ted Cruz is not the same person he once was". As for Cruz himself, he has vowed to continue fighting for votes even though campaign volunteer openings and engagements have largely been limited to his home state of Texas, betting that a large turnout in the Lone Star State for him will carry him through past March 5th.

February 26, 2024
RUBIO DROPS OUT AS DeSANTIS GAINS ANOTHER MAJOR ENDORSEMENT FROM A COLLEAGUE
Meanwhile, it's the end of the road for one other Republican candidate. Hours after DeSantis was endorsed by Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio ended his presidential campaign. In a live video statement released on Facebook Live, Rubio thanked his supporters for "working to help usher in a New American Century" and vowed to continue fighting for Floridians in the U.S. Senate. Moments after the video was released on YouTube, Rubio gave a 30-minute speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate, debating the merits (or lack thereof) of President Biden's latest foreign aid package to Ukraine and other countries, while also reflecting on his failed presidential campaign, in which Rubio only won one delegate in Iowa and generally polled no higher than five percent in national polling, not gaining much support outside of his political base in South Florida.

While Rubio did not immediately make an endorsement for President, a very close colleague of his in the Senate made his endorsement clear now that Rubio was out. Shortly after Rubio dropped out, DeSantis also won the endorsement of Florida's other U.S. Senator, Rick Scott. "When I left Tallahassee to become a Senator, I never thought that anyone else would surpass my expectations. But Ron DeSantis has proven me wrong, and his tremendous success and popularity as our Governor here in Florida is part of the reason why he's the best candidate to become our 47th President. But it's more than just that: DeSantis is a great family man, the protector of his beautiful wife Casey and their children, and perhaps the closest thing America has had to Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump in a long time." Scott's endorsement was rumored to have largely been delayed due to the presence of Rubio's competing candidacy, but as chairman of the NRSC Scott also has another excuse for why he delayed his endorsement: "We have a diverse field of candidates and several colleagues of mine who were amongst the field, which is why I refrained from making an endorsement earlier, but I feel that this is the right time to make an endorsement with so many states coming up", betting that delaying his endorsement to this point amounted to giving an air of neutrality with regards to the NRSC.

[SaintStan86]

February 28, 2024
DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS: REPUBLICANS GO ALL-IN FOR SUPER TUESDAY
With the first of three Super Tuesdays looming large, candidates are pulling out all the stops as they proceed towards March 5th with caution. On that night, nearly 40 percent of Republican delegates, along with over 40 percent of pledged Democratic ones, will be handed out with California, Texas and North Carolina all representing the biggest prizes on both sides. Given the significance of this particular Super Tuesday, campaigns sped through the states at frenetic pace, hoping to gain the trust of last-minute voters looking to play a significant role in selecting their presidential nominees. In Texas, members of Congress have largely stayed out of the spotlight on the Republican side out of respect for Sen. Ted Cruz, who has vowed to continue his campaign with a focus on making a big showing in Texas on Super Tuesday, known to some as "the Original Super Tuesday" to distinguish it from two other Tuesdays where delegates are expected to be handed out, albeit in much smaller numbers compared to the upcoming one.

However, one member of Congress who had previously endorsed Cruz did a 180 on his endorsement as U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls of the suburban Houston-based 22nd District switched his endorsement from Cruz to Gov. Ron DeSantis at a campaign fundraiser in a wealthy neighborhood near Sugar Land (outside of Houston), along with his twin brother and Fort Bend County Judge Trever Nehls and Fort Bend County GOP Chairman Bobby Eberle. "I cannot think of a better candidate to serve as our next President than Ron DeSantis. No offense to Ted Cruz, but I think the voters have spoken and when people tell me that Greg Abbott is merely following DeSantis, I kinda believe them. Even the Governor himself admits that!", says Troy Nehls. DeSantis also made stops in Dallas and McAllen earlier in the day, and will speak during a breakfast with local business leaders at the Junior League of Houston tomorrow morning before heading out to San Diego for a fundraiser with local Republicans there on Thursday night. (Gov. Abbott has not endorsed a candidate for President at this point.)

Meanwhile, Cruz stood with members of Congress both current and former at a campaign event in Houston earlier in the day, where he received endorsements from Houston area Reps. Morgan Luttrell, Randy Weber and Wesley Hunt, as well as former Reps. John Culberson and Louie Gohmert. When asked about Troy Nehls's about face on his presidential endorsement, Cruz remarked "You know, Troy is a good guy, but I think he's grossly underestimating just how strong our campaign is going to be on this coming Tuesday. He'll figure that out real soon." Former Amb. Nikki Haley was also in Houston that day, picking up the endorsement of Harris County GOP Chairwoman Cindy Siegel as well as the Texas Federation of Republican Women; "I cannot think of anyone more qualified to become our first Madam President than Nikki Haley", Siegel remarked in a press conference on Wednesday. Cruz would later rack up the endorsement of his former top staffer and current U.S. Senate candidate Chip Roy in Fredericksburg later that evening, while Haley received the endorsements of Reps. Tony Gonzales and Michael McCaul (the latter of whom chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee) at a campaign event in San Antonio during the afternoon before flying to Dallas to receive the endorsement of former U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and then heading to Colorado for a fundraiser in Denver on Thursday.

Vice President Mike Pence won the endorsement of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and current U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington during a campaign stop in Abilene on Tuesday, while Sen. Ben Sasse won the endorsement of The Dallas Morning News and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban (who is actually an independent but was impressed by Sasse's "refreshing campaign") and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones who hosted a $1,000-per-plate fundraiser at the Cowboys' practice facility in suburban Frisco, The Star, where lifelong Cowboys fan Christie posed with the team's six Vince Lombardi trophies (the latest won two weeks prior at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas). (One pundit remarked on Twitter that Christie signed his "death warrant" by receiving the endorsement of Jones, pointing how the news "will go over so well with fans of Big Blue", referring to the Cowboys' longtime rivals in the New York Giants.)

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side Vice President Kamala Harris picked up critical endorsements from Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins and former Planned Parenthood President Cecile Richards, the daughter of former Texas Gov. Ann Richards, at a campaign stop in Dallas. But other than a campaign fundraiser for Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Austin on Tuesday night, the Democrats largely stayed out of the Lone Star State as campaigns criss-crossed through Utah (where former Sec. Pete Buttigieg held a closed-door fundraiser in Park City) and Mississippi (where North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper took part in a "freedom march" with Black activists and pastors in Tupelo before heading to Nashville, Tennessee for a fundraiser with musicians and other music industry professionals in that city). (Editor's note: For those who may be wondering, former Vice President Al Gore has not endorsed a candidate nor has Taylor Swift.)

February 29, 2024
NBC REVEALS LINEUP FOR WEEKEND DEBATES
A Republican debate in San Francisco? Impossible!

A Democratic debate in Dallas? Shocker!

But that's exactly what will be happening this weekend as NBC will be hosting the last Democratic and second-to-last Republican debate of the presidential campaign. In revealing the order for its debates on Thursday morning's edition of Today, Meet the Press anchor Chuck Todd remarked the significance of these upcoming debates: "This is arguably going to be the last time you're going to see a lot of these candidates together". With both parties handing out roughly 40 percent of their delegates on Super Tuesday I, it is all but certain that the fields for both parties will be dramatically paired down after this date.

First off, Todd announced the field for the upcoming Republican debate to be held tomorrow night from Davies Symphony Hall in San Francisco, home of the San Francisco Symphony, which will be moderated by Todd alongside NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt, Telemundo anchor José Díaz-Balart, NBC News contributor Hugh Hewitt and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is the current director of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. To qualify for the debate, candidates still have to be actively campaigning for the presidential nomination and received at least five percent of the vote in at least one of the early primaries or caucuses. Based on this criteria, eight candidates have qualified with the lone exception amongst the key candidates being Candace Owens. The qualified candidates will then be sorted out based on total number of delegates won so far, with delegates won in states won by Donald Trump in 2020 serving as a tiebreaker (which Cruz wins as he won four of his six delegates in Iowa versus Christie winning five of his six in states won by Joe Biden).

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE MARCH 1ST REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NBC/Telemundo @ San Francisco, CA)
Candidate	Total Dels.	IA (2/5)	NH (2/13)	SC (2/24)	NV (2/24)
PARTICIPATING
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	74	6/15.69	11/19.84	50/52.1	7/22.65
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	15	5/11.68	3/13.21	0/12.94	7/22.51
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	14	8/19.23	2/10.03	0/7.31	4/10.26
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	13	7/16.73	3/13.95	0/4.81	3/8.53
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	10	4/10.21	3/10.55	0/4.64	3/10.13
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	6	4/9.45	0/7.68	0/6.22	2/6.53
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	6	1/1.58	2/10.29	0/3.01	3/9.05
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	1	1/2.49	0/6.45	0/1.91	0/3.21
NOT PARTICIPATING
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	1	0/0.94	0/1.64	0/3.41	1/3.45

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR MARCH 1ST REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

7. Christie

5. Pompeo

3. Pence

1. Haley

2. DeSantis

4. Sasse

6. Cruz

8. Hogan

For the GOP's final debate before Super Tuesday, Haley and DeSantis will get front billing as both are seen as the frontrunners between Haley's slight lead over DeSantis for delegates won outside of the 50 won in her home state of South Carolina and DeSantis's recent endorsement by Trump. Pence, Sasse and Pompeo are next in the pecking order, followed by Cruz and Christie who both tie for six delegates overall, with Cruz getting higher positioning based on his four delegates won in Iowa compared to all but one of Christie's delegates being won in New Hampshire and Nevada (which both went for Biden as aforementioned) as well as the fact that Cruz polled above five percent in all of the early states versus Christie's two. Hogan barely qualifies with his one delegate won in Iowa as well as only polling above five percent in New Hampshire (where he won 6.45 percent), while Owens's highest performance was 3.41 percent in South Carolina which leads to her being disqualified. As expected, Owens vows to continue with her campaign promising to have "an alternative where there is none on the ballot for Republicans", betting on a divided convention where delegates can decide the presidential ticket despite that scenario all but guaranteeing a huge disadvantage for the GOP. In the response, the RNC has also warned its voters not to participate in the Democratic presidential primaries like several did in 2008, with Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel warning of "grave consequences for Republicans who attempt to influence the other party's presidential nomination no matter how tempting it might be".

During the second hour of Today, Todd also revealed the order for Saturday night's upcoming Democratic debate at the Majestic Theatre in Dallas, which along with Austin and El Paso have become strongholds for the Democratic Party in the modern Texas. The debate will feature Holt and Todd as moderators along with political reporters Julie Fine and Gromer Jeffers of NBC owned-and-operated KXAS-TV and The Dallas Morning News, respectively - both of whom host a local Sunday morning talk show, Lone Star Politics, that leads into Meet the Press on the former. For this debate, candidates have to be actively campaigning for the presidential nomination and also have won at least five percent in one of the early states.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE MARCH 2ND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NBC @ Dallas, TX)
Candidate	Total Dels.	NV (1/20)	SC (1/27)	IA (2/5)	NH (2/13)
PARTICIPATING
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	63	15/30.8	27/42.14	13/26.49	8/23.35
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	49	18/33.84	13/22.1	8/21.41	10/36.65
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	15	0/10.21	0/9.48	14/25.31	1/13.14
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	15	0/5.53	15/19.11	0/5.07	0/4.35
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	7	3/15.11	0/2.84	0/4.53	4/15.07
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	5	0/3.39	0/3.77	5/16.62	0/6.83

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR MARCH 2ND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

5. Polis

3. Buttigieg

1. Harris

2. Warren

4. Cooper

6. Klobuchar

As expected, Harris and Warren will continue to be front and center on stage for the final Democratic debate, with the candidates themselves concluding that "enough is enough" with regards to the debates and that the focus should be now on convincing voters on the ground (especially with Texas wrapping up early voting on Friday). Buttigieg and Cooper both tie for the same amount of delegates, but as Buttigieg has won over 10 percent of the vote in each of the early states minus South Carolina (which was the only state Cooper polled over 10 percent in himself), he will be placed higher in the order. Polis and Klobuchar will both be positioned towards the ends of the stage, with the latter appearing this time after being snubbed from the last debate in Boston. On Twitter, Klobuchar declared she was "looking forward to debating with my rivals once again as we fight for every last vote next Tuesday! #AmyForAmerica".

Both debates will begin 8PM ET (5pm in San Francisco, 7pm in Dallas), with a special broadcast of Dateline on the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan following Friday's Republican debate and Saturday's Democratic debate being lead out by a Saturday Night Live retrospect of past primary debate parodies by the legendary NBC program.

[SaintStan86]

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Prayitno

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Melinda Stuart

Louise M. Davies Symphony Hall in San Francisco, site of the March 1st, 2024 Republican presidential debate.

March 1, 2024
REPUBLICANS TAKE OVER SAN FRANCISCO IN FINAL DEBATE BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY
On Friday night, Republicans debated for the final time before the first - and largest - of three Super Tuesdays in the heart of the most liberal metropolitan area in the country. With such a rare debate in the overwhelmingly Democratic city of San Francisco, the crowd at Davies Symphony Hall consisted of many of the most prominent Republicans in the San Francisco Bay Area with venture capitalist and recent GOP megadonor Peter Thiel amongst a who's who of prominent Republicans in attendance at the longtime home of the San Francisco Symphony. Indeed, both the audience in the concert hall as well as the audience watching on NBC and Telemundo watched as conservative commentator and moderator Hugh Hewitt acknowledged the former as "the bravest, most courageous and strongest Republicans anywhere in the country - true warriors in the belly of the (Democratic) beast".

As expected, the debate went over many of the same topics as previous debates as the candidates sought one final chance to win over voters before Tuesday. Gov. Ron DeSantis - fresh off his recent endorsement by former President Donald Trump - defended his economic and public health record during the COVID-19 pandemic, remarking "how much more beautiful California would be if it weren't beholden by dangerous liberal policies that have ruined it", while former Ambassador Nikki Haley stressed the importance of "strong leadership both at home and abroad, leadership that our diverse and strong nation deserves whether you're in New York City, Orlando or even right here in San Francisco". Former Gov. Larry Hogan, as usual, stressed his moderate credentials: "As a popular Republican Governor in a state that almost never votes Republican, I have made true believers out of former Democrats, and as your President you will be a believer!".

Nonetheless, there were important moments within the debate, some of them rather controversial. When asked by moderator and fellow former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice if Donald Trump's noninterventionist foreign policy is the way forward (as opposed to the more interventionist tack Rice took under George W. Bush), Mike Pompeo responded by pointing to the region's historical role in anti-war movements: "There are a lot of people here in the Bay Area who know they don't want the high taxes and high crime that is destroying their state, but a big reason they became Democrats was because of the disastrous policy your administration sought on Iraq. Not you, Condi. Rather, Bill Kristol, who is now selling snake oil to Biden and Harris". Haley responded, "Secretary, with all due respect, you can do better than assail Condi over how Iraq went. I don't agree with everything that George W. Bush did on Iraq, but she's the last person you need to be attacking".

Another topic that came up concerned the high cost of living in regions like the Bay Area, where many families considered affluent in most other metro areas are "below the poverty line". When asked by moderator Lester Holt regarding how to balance tough fiscal discipline with reducing the cost of living, Sen. Ben Sasse alluded to his own tax proposal: "My tax proposal aimed at creating thriving families and productive members of society will pay for itself through tax incentives for families with children and companies who pledge to put at least half of their domestic manufacturing output in America". But Pompeo was less than impressed: "Sen. Sasse's proposal is predicated on restoring many of the old tax deductions that outlived their usefulness by the time President Trump reformed our tax code to benefit hardworking Americans and not liberals who choose to cut corners through loopholes like the ones he's proposing". Pompeo also responded that California Republicans need to become "more courageous" in defending their values to independent voters in the state, and accused Sasse of "pandering to establishment Republicans who'd rather throw Trump under the bus like he did after January 6th than confront the leviathan of out-of-control education bureaucrats, union bosses and unsustainable pensions that are destroying and have destroyed California".

While policy differences and stylings were a constant back-and-forth throughout the debate, moderator José Díaz-Balart asked a pointed question to Sen. Ted Cruz regarding whether or not Republicans have won the future with their capturing of Hispanic voters in recent elections. Cruz responded, "The values that Hispanics hold dear: strong family values, prosperous businesses and a love for community and country...these are Republican values!" Cruz also vowed to fight for every last vote going into Super Tuesday, and in addition to talking up his already spoken story about his father's emigration to America, also stated "I owe nothing to the special interests that have undermined California and the rest of our country, and everything to those who believe in the promise of America." Cruz also vowed to incentivize women with unwanted pregnancies to become surrogate mothers for adoptive parents, as well as "cut every loophole that is keeping any legal immigrant who wants to become a citizen from doing so".

That led to another key moment during the debate, in which Vice President Mike Pence was asked about whether or not to finish constructing Trump's signature border wall by moderator Chuck Todd. Pence vowed to finish the wall under his watch, as did every other candidate on the stage sans Hogan (who dismissed the wall as a 'Trumpian gimmick'), but also alluded to two flashpoints in the immigration debate - the controversial deportation of his fellow Hoosier Roberto Beristain (a restaurateur who had been separated from his natural born family in Indiana following a traffic stop when his illegal immigration status was revealed) and San Franciscan Kate Steinle's murder on a San Francisco pier by an illegal immigrant from Texas on probation in 2015. "As President, I will send Kate Steinle's killer back home to Mexico in exchange for Roberto Beristain, a proud family man who did not deserve to be separated from his family because shady immigration lawyers would rather feed him bad advice than work towards making him a U.S. citizen". Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie responded by calling out Pence for taking advantage of the families without permission, "Make sure you consult with their families first before you speak for them...I know I would."

Christie himself, however, would put himself in the middle of a stir when Hewitt asked if a federal heartbeat bill is necessary to "promote a culture of life and incentivize adoption". Christie responded by pointing that "the issue belongs to the states" but suggested taking action through a constitutional referendum instead of legislative action. DeSantis and Pence both criticized Christie's suggestion, with Pence remarking "As long as New Jersey is controlled by corrupt union bosses and radical liberals who have a stronghold on big cities like Camden and Newark, Chris Christie's wishful thinking will not work" and also alluding to the state's GOP establishment that Pence singled out as "responsible for the stifling of socially conservative Catholics and Hispanics in the state who otherwise would be helpful to creating a strong Republican Party". Pence then continued by saying that "legislative action, not a referendum by uninformed voters, is what it takes to ratify a constitutional amendment on any issue, abortion included". Christie responded by accusing Pence of "belittling the voters" and pointed to Pence's own shortcomings on legislation addressing public accommodations for transgendered individuals.

DeSantis, however, owned the night by sympathizing with voters in San Francisco and across the Bay Area who laid witness to recent quality of life issues often brought up by Republicans. "To all of you who had to put up with schools constantly on lockdown for no reason, who had to witness homeless people sharing needles and laying their waste in the streets, who watched as repeat offenders got off scot-free while those who believed in freedom had their business shuttered, and who watched their standard of living decline as their real estate prices went up exorbitantly: my heart is with you. And as your next President, I will work to give state and local communities the resources they need to make your community Home Sweet Home again. Because you shouldn't be forced to move from the place you love, a beautiful city like San Francisco, because your leaders have failed you. This would never happen in Florida, and come next year, it won't happen again here!". DeSantis's response came with a thunderous standing ovation from the packed audience at Davies Symphony Hall.

Overall, the debate was well received with DeSantis and Cruz drawing some of the more positive responses from audience members and viewers at home, while Pompeo's confrontation with Condoleezza Rice and Pence's vow to trade the illegal immigrant killer of Kate Steinle for a deported illegal immigrant from his own state drew some of the most pointed responses of the night on social media. Nikki Haley also drew positive responses for her vow to "stand up to tyrants who starved Otto Warmbier to death, enslaved millions of Uyghurs in China and assaulted the freedoms of Hong Kongers and Ukrainians alike WITHOUT going to war", including from many respondents from the Bay Area who otherwise would not consider voting for a Republican. Asides from an upcoming debate after the March 12th primaries in Atlanta, there are no more Republican debates planned, giving the campaigns free rein to go across the country and stump for last-minute votes before Super Tuesday.

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Dfwcre8tive
The historic Majestic Theatre in Dallas, Texas, site of the March 2nd, 2024 Democratic presidential debate.

March 2, 2024
DEMOCRATS DO DALLAS IN FINAL DEBATE BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY
With less than 72 hours to go before the results of Super Tuesday come in, Democrats made one final pitch to voters at the historic Majestic Theatre in downtown Dallas, in a debate where tickets only became available on Friday night to Democratic voters who did not cast ballots during early voting. With former statewide candidate and one-time presidential hopeful Beto O'Rourke serving as "master of ceremonies" for the evening, proclaiming that "this year's election will go right through Texas!", audience members in the theatre and watching at home on NBC were treated to two hours of last-minute pitches from the six Democratic hopefuls on stage.

As expected, many of the same topics were discussed as in previous debates, but with a direct link to the issues facing voters in the Lone Star State. One of the bigger issues debated was healthcare, for which both pointed to Texas being among "the worst states for healthcare coverage in the nation", according to one recent source. When asked by moderator Lester Holt, the responses were vastly different: Sen. Elizabeth Warren vowed to "fight for equity in healthcare including Hispanics who make up a large percentage of the uninsured in Texas", while Vice President Kamala Harris aimed to "strengthen the Affordable Care Act to ensure that every American, no matter their economic or racial background, can afford high-quality, affordable healthcare". Gov. Jared Polis, whose policies resulted in Colorado being one of the higher-ranking states on the same study that negatively ranked Texas, stressed the importance of "public-private partnerships to reduce gaps in healthcare coverage", while also vowing to hold corporations accountable for "shortchanging Americans' health coverage to cover their bottom line".

But one issue that animated the candidates was the issue of funding for first responders. When asked by moderator Julie Fine, political reporter for NBC owned-and-operated KXAS-TV, if addressing police brutality can be done without alienating law enforcement, Harris stressed her credentials as District Attorney in San Francisco "where criminals were held accountable and families and businesses were able to thrive safely" and took aim at Warren for favoring defunding first responders instead of addressing the root cause of strained community-police relations. Warren responded by pointing out "I will never support defunding our law enforcement" and instead bringing up solutions such as reducing jail time for nonviolent offenders and retroactively increasing it for more violent criminals. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper reiterated his support for police and firefighters: "As Governor of North Carolina, I worked to fully fund our police officers and firefighters with the training and equipment they need to do their job and provide quality benefits including medical care, retirement and childcare. As your President, they will be my top domestic priority in catching the crooks and keeping dangerous criminals off our streets". Both Warren and Sen. Amy Klobuchar also criticized Harris for "letting Fox News define Democrats when it comes to our police" (Warren's words) and "treating our criminal justice system as if it were a game of Monopoly" (Klobuchar's words).

Staying with the law enforcement issue, all of the candidates agreed to various degrees of gun control. When asked by moderator Chuck Todd if "expanding background rights infringes on Second Amendment rights", Harris dismissed the question: "Of course people have a right to protect themselves, but the record on gun abuse is such that we cannot let the issue walk by us yet again". Harris vowed to close the "gun show loophole" via executive order and require background checks for all online firearms purchases, while former Sec. Pete Buttigieg, who previously served in the military as a naval reserve officer, called for a "mandatory return on military-style assault weapons" once their military service has concluded. "There is zero excuse for anyone who proudly wore our uniform to walk away with weapons of war once they are discharged", said Buttigieg. Polis, whose home state has witnessed some of the worst mass shootings in American history, remarked "As a gun owner myself who has been to shooting ranges many times, I can tell you you don't need a big scary gun to protect yourself from an armed intruder".

On many of the other issues, the stances became more about defensive takes against Republican allegations. On veterans' issues for instance, Buttigieg responded to moderator Gromer Jeffers' question on the recent VA hospital scandal that Fox News hosts have blamed on the Biden administration: "The next time Tucker Carlson tries to accuse us of leaving those who served to sit and die in their own urine, remember that Trump's tax cuts only added gasoline to the fire". Jeffers, who is the lead political reporter for The Dallas Morning News, also asked Harris if recent Republican calls for a constitutional amendment on abortion will work to her benefit with the Vice President responding "Of course it does, because abortion is healthcare and healthcare is a right for which old white men shouldn't have the last word". And when asked by Jeffers if her staunch progressive stances will hurt her in Texas, Warren retorted "I used to live in Houston. I went to the University of Houston. I know very well that Texans work best when progressive policies that improve their lives and communities are implemented. Texans are not corporate slaves", with the last sentence igniting some consternation from respondents on social media.

In post-debate audience surveys, Cooper and Buttigieg appeared to have made the strongest case for moderate Democrats, while Harris and Warren remained the most popular with their respective traditional-liberal and left-socialist bases. With the final Democratic debate now in the books, Democrats began a frenzied criss-crossing of the entire country for votes as the clock ticked down to the first results on Super Tuesday.

[Utah Neolib]

Keep up the great work! I like how much heart and soul you’ve put into this TL.

[SaintStan86]

March 5, 2024
CANDIDATES SCOOP UP ENDORSEMENTS WITH HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS ROLL IN
While there are three "Super Tuesdays" on the calendar in this year's presidential nominating contests, one stands out alone as "the original and the best". That happens to be Tuesday's upcoming primaries in several states where voters in both parties will hand out about 40 percent of their respective delegates to candidates. And with the clock ticking, candidates were eager to scoop up some last-minute endorsements with a particular focus on the states where delegates are on the line. For the leading Republican candidates, the endorsements they received also spoke to the nature of their respective support bases, and largely broke along ideological and philosophical lines depending on such factors as their level of conservatism, past support for Trump and other factors.

In Memphis, Gov. Ron DeSantis was joined Saturday by a quartet of Republican Governors he informally called "the MOAT Squad" upon receiving their endorsements: Mississippi's Tate Reeves (elected in 2019), Oklahoma's Kevin Stitt (elected along with DeSantis in 2018), Arkansas's Sarah Huckabee Sanders (who previously endorsed Sen. Tom Cotton before he suspended his campaign) and Tennessee's Bill Lee (also elected in 2018 as DeSantis was elected in his home state of Florida). The governors, all elected since 2018, pointed to their shared economic successes during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as their conservative governance which serves in their view as a "marked contrast" to the "anti-growth, lockdown-happy" measures of such states as California and New York. "Of course Tennesseans agree I'm the best Governor, but Ron DeSantis was our inspiration to govern fearlessly", Lee touted on stage.

And it was far from the only endorsement DeSantis received over the weekend. On Sunday during a campaign stop in Norfolk, Virginia, DeSantis also won the endorsement of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who stated "When I saw how Ron DeSantis rallied his people in Florida, I thought to myself 'imagine if Virginia had a Governor like this'. We don't agree on everything, but we do agree on a whole lot of things". Unsurprisingly, Youngkin took to the stage in a sweater vest emblematic of the fleece vests he wore during his successful 2021 gubernatorial campaign, and even awarded DeSantis (who himself was only donning a light blue shirt with sleeves rolled up) as he remarked "I think you're feeling a bit chilly Governor, may I help you?" a sweater vest embroidered with his campaign logo. DeSantis tersely returned the favor, "Fits like a glove!" DeSantis also traveled to Gaylord National Resort in National Harbor, Maryland later that day, where he along with several other candidates spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) and came away as the winner of the conference's annual Straw Poll, where DeSantis won a whopping 41 percent of the vote, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence with 15 percent of the vote, former Ambassador Nikki Haley with 12 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz with 7 percent as the only other presidential candidate to poll higher than 5 percent.

But perhaps the most penultimate endorsement came from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who on Monday praised DeSantis as "the best Governor in the history of any state not named Texas". Abbott also continued during a rally in Corpus Christi, "I remember when I did certain things that got me in trouble with some of my voters, to which I leaned in and learned because of Ron DeSantis. And that is why I am proud today to endorse him to be our next great President of this great nation!" The endorsement is seen as another blow to Sen. Ted Cruz's chances, already slim in the wake of a series of mediocre debate performances and declining polling returns. However, Abbott insists that there is no "ill will" between himself and Cruz, though he did argue that "I think Ted needs to be realistic about his chances to 'take over the world'" in a recent interview with Texas Monthly magazine, referring to an old high school video in which a young Cruz spoke of what he wanted to do after he graduated high school in 1988.

Meanwhile, former Ambassador Nikki Haley picked up a key endorsement on Saturday from Sen. Marco Rubio, who ran for President in 2016 and recently dropped out from the race after his fellow Floridian DeSantis won the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. "Today, I am honored to endorse Ambassador Haley to become our next President of the United States", Rubio declared on stage at a campaign event in Louisiana (whose closed primaries will be on Saturday). Speaking before the crowd at an event in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, Haley declared "Our country is going to be in excellent shape again with a leader who knows how to build an economy on the hands of hardworking Americans and not the fat checks of elitists and lobbyists who have taken America in the wrong direction". Haley also won endorsements from former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. over the weekend.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, picked up endorsements from several former congressional colleagues from his days as a U.S. Rep from Indiana, where he served what is now the 6th District in eastern Indiana from 2000 to 2012 (a district now held by Pence's brother, Greg). Among the former colleagues endorsing Pence included former U.S. Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado, who endorsed Pence at a campaign event in the Denver suburb of Highlands Ranch on Saturday, Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma who endorsed Pence at a rally in Oklahoma City, and Sen. Mike Lee of Utah who endorsed Pence during a Republican breakfast in Provo, Utah. Pence was in Charlotte on Monday to receive the endorsement of former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, who like Pence also had to deal with controversy over legislation regarding public accommodations for transgendered individuals - which in McCrory's case led to his 2016 defeat by Democrat and then-state Attorney General Roy Cooper (who is now running for his party's presidential nomination).

On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris received endorsements from former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke in Austin, where O'Rourke spoke of Harris as "a trailblazer who is fierce beyond words and will bring fire where her critics expect smoke", and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who urged his fellow Democrats at a rally on the Westside of Los Angeles to "turn out en masse for Kamala Harris and send a message to Republicans that our positive progressive movement is stronger than the dark energy they will bring to the White House should they win". Meanwhile in Santa Monica, Sen. Elizabeth Warren received endorsements from hosts of The Young Turks, Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian, the latter of whom urged "progressives to get very loud and remind everyone that the days of being led astray by corporate Democrats like Kamala Harris who have sold out the people as Americans continue to fall further behind are over". Warren later traveled to Burlington, Vermont on Monday evening to receive the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders, who echoed Kasparian's sentiments, "Kamala Harris has benefited from wealthy donors coopting our progressive movement while our life expectancies continue to get shorter and Americans continue to suffer with starvation wages and unpaid college debts". "A vote for Kamala Harris is a vote to bring back the dark, hateful and divisive days of Donald Trump through the back door", Sanders continued.

As the night concluded, the candidates settled into their final positions for Tuesday. Sen. Cruz cast his vote with his family by his side in Houston on Tuesday morning, while former Gov. Larry Hogan cast his vote at a town hall near his Maryland home and Candace Owens, now reduced to being a "bazaar candidate" with a cult following similar to Ron Paul and Tulsi Gabbard in past elections, recorded her vote at a polling place near downtown Nashville. With the exception of former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (whose home state of Indiana is not up for voting until two weeks from Tuesday - March 19th), all the Democrats cast their votes for President on or before Super Tuesday as well, with Kamala Harris having cast her vote absentee from Number One Observatory Circle, Sen. Warren casting her vote in Cambridge near the Harvard campus, and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis having dropped his mail-in ballot into a drop-off box near Denver City Hall.

[SaintStan86]

It is now 7PM on the East Coast. Polls have started to close around the country.

VERMONT
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

As is the case in virtually every other state, the pledged delegates are awarded based on DNC delegate allocation rules where a candidate must win at least 15 percent to qualify for delegates, proportionally bound between those who qualified; if only one candidate crosses the 15 percent threshold, that candidate receives all pledged delegates.

Results of Primary:
Elizabeth Warren - 52.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 26.60 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 10.12 percent
Jared Polis - 5.55 percent
Roy Cooper - 3.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 1.85 percent
(Remaining 0.60 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CDAL/Burlington, Montpelier & Rutland (11 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 7, Kamala Harris 4
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1
At-Large Delegates (3 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 69 delegates +6 from Vermont
Elizabeth Warren - 59 delegates +10 from Vermont
Pete Buttigieg - 15 delegates
Roy Cooper - 15 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Unsurprisingly, being one of the most liberal states in the country, as well as being next door to Massachusetts, worked to Warren's advantage. That, and Bernie Sanders' endorsement, was enough for Warren to nearly double Harris's showing in the state.

VERMONT
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

17 delegates will be awarded in this open Winner-Take-Most primary. In a format used in most other states, if one candidate receives 50 percent that candidate receives all 17 delegates; otherwise the threshold becomes 20 percent, 15 percent or 10 percent depending on whether or not at least one candidates receives the higher threshold. Fractional delegates will either be subtracted from the candidate with the fewest votes if too many delegates are awarded or added to the candidate with the most votes if excess delegates remain.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Nikki Haley - 19.14 percent (5 delegates)
Chris Christie - 15.59 percent (4 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 15.41 percent (4 delegates)
Larry Hogan - 15.11 percent (4 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 13.41 percent
Mike Pompeo - 6.62 percent
Mike Pence - 5.25 percent
Ted Cruz - 5.14 percent
Candace Owens - 2.41 percent
(Remaining 1.92 percent went to other candidates, including 1.13 for Marco Rubio)
Exactly 17 delegates have been awarded.

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 79 delegates +5 from Vermont
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates +4 from Vermont
Ron DeSantis - 15 delegates
Mike Pence - 14 delegates
Chris Christie - 10 delegates +4 from Vermont
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Larry Hogan - 5 delegates +4 from Vermont
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

Haley barely misses out on securing all 17 delegates by virtue of reaching 20 percent. Christie and Hogan combine to win a large chunk of moderates who are more prevalent in Vermont Republican circles than anywhere else in the country. Sasse wins a sizable chunk of Yankee Republican fiscal conservatives as well as some college students in scattered campuses across the state. Ron DeSantis barely missed out on qualifying by less than 2 percent, but his impact on the rest of the field is clear as Pompeo, Pence and Cruz notably underperform compared to neighboring New Hampshire.

VIRGINIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

The same DNC math used in all other states also applies to Virginia. Delegates will be awarded based on results in each of the Commonwealth's 11 congressional districts, with delegates to be awarded to PLEOs and at-large delegates based on the statewide results.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 40.41 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 16.95 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 15.62 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 15.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 6.85 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 4.51 percent
(Remaining 0.52 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Williamsburg, Bon Air & Montross (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Virginia Beach, Chesapeake & Northampton (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 2
CD3/Norfolk, Newport News & Portsmouth (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Roy Cooper 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Richmond, Petersburg & Emporia (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Charlottesville, Lynchburg & Danville (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Roanoke, Harrisonburg & Winchester (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2
CD7/Culpeper, Woodbridge & Fredericksburg (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD8/Arlington, Alexandria & Mount Vernon (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3
CD9/Bristol, Blacksburg & Martinsville (4 delegates):
Roy Cooper 1, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD10/Leesburg, Warrenton & Manassas (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3
CD11/Fairfax, Lorton & Reston (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 3
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (13 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Roy Cooper 2
At-Large Delegates (22 delegates):
Kamala Harris 10, Elizabeth Warren 4, Pete Buttigieg 4, Roy Cooper 4

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 117 delegates +48 from Virginia
Elizabeth Warren - 82 delegates +23 from Virginia
Pete Buttigieg - 30 delegates +15 from Virginia
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates +13 from Virginia
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Both Black and establishment Democrats gave Harris her comfortable victory across the state with 48 of the 99 pledged delegates and victories in 9 of 11 congressional districts. Warren, Buttigieg and Cooper each won sizable chunks of the vote across the state, with Warren performing most strongly amongst White liberals and academics in Arlington, Charlottesville and Blacksburg and also winning the heavily Democratic 8th District in Northern Virginia (home to Arlington and Alexandria as well as areas inside the Capitol Beltway). Buttigieg performed best in rural and suburban areas in central and southern Virginia (as well as winning one delegate in the Norfolk-based 3rd which has a large naval air station), while Cooper performed strongest in areas close to North Carolina including the Hampton Roads area, even scoring a narrow win in the southwest-based 9th where each of the four candidates who qualified for delegates statewide each received a delegate.

As of 7pm ET, the open Virginia Republican Primary is too close to call between Gov. Ron DeSantis's endorsement by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley's outsized support in military and suburban regions of the state, and Mike Pence's niche with rural social conservatives in the southwest.

At 7:30pm ET, polls in North Carolina have closed. The mixed Democratic primary is too close to call due to the unknown impact of favorite son Gov. Roy Cooper's campaign on that of Kamala Harris, since it is all but assumed that very little of Cooper's votes would have otherwise gone to Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The mixed Republican primary is also too close to call given that Haley's support from areas adjoining her home state of South Carolina and military bastions in the state clashes with DeSantis's sizable support from arch-conservatives throughout the state.

At 8pm ET, several states have closed their primaries, with some of the states being projected at the moment the polls closed.

DELAWARE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

This primary was bumped to March from June to give President Joe Biden's home state greater leverage in selecting the next Democratic nominee. Candidates with at least 15 percent of the vote will qualify to earn at least one of 17 delegates. The state has only one at-large congressional district, so its 11 delegates will be awarded by city and county - 7 from New Castle County (1 from the city of Wilmington, 6 from the rest of the county), 2 from Kent County (which is home to the state capital of Dover) and 2 from culturally conservative Sussex County. The other six delegates are four at-large delegates and two PLEO delegates.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 65.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 13.41 percent
Roy Cooper - 6.88 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 6.25 percent
Jared Polis -3.95 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 3.95 percent
(Remaining 0.42 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
New Castle County - City of Wilmington (1 delegate): Kamala Harris
New Castle County - outside Wilmington (6 delegates): Kamala Harris
Kent County (2 delegates): Kamala Harris
Sussex County (2 delegates): Kamala Harris
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates): Kamala Harris
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates): Kamala Harris

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 134 delegates +17 from Delaware
Elizabeth Warren - 82 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 30 delegates
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris benefited greatly from having the biggest endorseé by far: favorite son President Joe Biden. Her next closest competitor, Sen. Warren, doesn't even cross the 15 percent threshold.

Editor's note: Maryland's congressional districts have already been redrawn after the first redraw was tossed out as an extreme Democratic gerrymander. The new map that got hashed out will definitely hold going into the 2024 elections.

MARYLAND
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Candidates with at least 15 percent of the vote will qualify to earn at least one of 81 delegates, including 29 distributed statewide to 18 at-large and 11 PLEO delegates and 52 via the state's eight congressional districts, in this closed primary. Like the Delaware primary, this primary was also bumped up to unite the entire DMV region behind one March primary.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 58.52 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 20.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 6.51 percent
Roy Cooper - 6.41 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 6.14 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 1.31 percent
(Remaining 0.62 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Salisbury, Bel Air & Stevensville (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD2/Towson, Westminster & Middle River (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD3/Annapolis, Columbia & Glen Burnie (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD4/College Park, Laurel & Fort Washington (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD5/Waldorf, Bowie & Lexington Park (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD6/Gaithersburg, Frederick & Hagerstown (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD7/Baltimore, Dundalk & Woodlawn (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD8/Bethesda, Potomac & Olney (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Elizabeth Warren 3
At-Large Delegates (18 delegates):
Kamala Harris 13, Elizabeth Warren 5

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 191 delegates +57 from Maryland
Elizabeth Warren - 106 delegates +24 from Maryland
Pete Buttigieg - 30 delegates
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris enjoyed strong support from African Americans and more moderate white Democrats, while White liberals strongly favored Warren. Harris and Warren were also the only ones to win delegates with 57 for the former and 24 for the latter. Polis, Cooper and Buttigieg had respective niche support amongst some urban liberals along I-95, old-school Southern Democrats in southern Maryland and blue-collar moderates in western Maryland, but none of them were able to capture enough support to cross 15 percent either statewide or in individual CDs.

MASSACHUSETTS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

92 pledged delegates will be handed out - 60 from the Commonwealth's nine congressional districts, 32 through PLEO and at-large delegates - in this mixed primary.

Results of Primary:
Elizabeth Warren - 53.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 22.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 10.51 percent
Roy Cooper - 6.65 percent
Jared Polis - 4.12 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.95 percent
(Remaining 0.49 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Springfield, Oxford & Pittsfield (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD2/Worcester, Amherst & Leominster (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 5, Kamala Harris 1
CD3/Lowell, Fitchburg & Hudson (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2
CD4/Newton, Fall River & Foxboro (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 5, Kamala Harris 1
CD5/Medford, Framingham & Revere (8 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 7, Kamala Harris 1
CD6/Newbury, Burlington & Salem (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2
CD7/Boston (Dorchester, Charlestown), Chelsea & Randolph (8 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 6, Kamala Harris 2
CD8/Boston (Beacon Hill, "Southie"), Quincy & Brockton (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 5, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD9/Plymouth, New Bedford & Cape Cod (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (12 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 8, Kamala Harris 4
At-Large Delegates (20 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 14, Kamala Harris 6

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 215 delegates +24 from Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren - 172 delegates +66 from Massachusetts
Pete Buttigieg - 32 delegates +2 from Massachusetts
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

As expected, Warren romped through her home state thanks to her dominant performance in the vicinity of Cambridge and other Massachusetts college towns, where she enjoyed strong support amongst academics and White liberals in such areas as Newton (Boston College) and Amherst (UMass). However, her performance was not universal given that Massachusetts' Democratic dominance has long been linked to the legacy of the Kennedy family, whose Ivy League educational pedigrees, generally preppy clothing style and mostly civil sense of principled liberalism paled in stark contrast to the emergent progressive-socialist base that fueled Warren's 2012 U.S. Senate victory as well as fellow U.S. Sen. Ed Markey's 2020 primary triumph over then-U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy III (who himself represented the Kennedys' ancestral Brookline in Congress). While there are Kennedy endorseés on Warren's team, along with original "Squad" member Ayanna Pressley who is from Dorchester, some more affluent Democrats more sympathetic to the Kennedy style of liberalism versus Warren's progressive-lite tack - particularly in the suburbs surrounding Boston - preferred Harris instead.

Buttigieg did manage to cross 15 percent in two CDs - the western Mass-based 1st and the South Shore-based 8th (which includes historically Irish-American South Boston, also known as "Southie") where he gained sizable support from exurban voters in the Berkshires and Worcester County in the former as well as Irish Catholic Democrats who have long been the electoral base of retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch in the latter, but other than that his performance was below 10 percent in the rest of the state. No other candidate even came close to crossing 10 percent anywhere in the state.

[SaintStan86]

MASSACHUSETTS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

The Bay State's Republicans, meanwhile, also held their mixed primary tonight as well. As with neighboring Vermont, this is a Winner-Take-Most primary with 40 delegates to be handed out - 27 at the congressional level, 13 at-large. If a candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, that candidate wins all 40 delegates. Otherwise, three separate criteria are used instead to allocate delegates:

• If multiple candidates win at least 20 percent of the vote, the delegates are then apportioned amongst qualifying candidates.
• If only one candidate wins at least 20 percent of the vote, the two candidates receiving the greatest statewide vote will be apportioned delegates.
• If no candidate crosses 20 percent of the statewide vote, the candidates shall be proportionally awarded delegates.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Nikki Haley - 23.10 percent (22 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 19.61 percent (18 delegates)
Chris Christie - 18.69 percent
Larry Hogan - 12.52 percent
Ben Sasse - 6.69 percent
Mike Pence - 6.46 percent
Ted Cruz - 5.15 percent
Mike Pompeo - 5.15 percent
Candace Owens - 1.34 percent
(Remaining 1.29 percent went to other candidates, including 0.95 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 101 delegates +22 from Massachusetts
Ron DeSantis - 33 delegates +18 from Massachusetts
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Mike Pence - 14 delegates
Chris Christie - 10 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Larry Hogan - 5 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

DeSantis's endorsement by Donald Trump is believed to have made an impact amongst the conservatives in the Massachusetts GOP voter base, but Haley still prevails as the only candidate to cross 20 percent. DeSantis, by virtue of being the second-place candidate with just under 20 percent of the vote, manages to win 18 delegates to Haley's 22, and less than one percent higher than Chris Christie's nearly 19 percent of the vote. Hogan is the only other Republican to win more than 10 percent of the vote in the Bay State, failing to gain much traction despite his endorsement from his fellow moderate Republican, former Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker.

MARYLAND
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Originally scheduled for April 23rd, Maryland's presidential primaries, both the GOP's and the Democrats', were moved up to Super Tuesday to provide voters in and around the DMV with a unified opportunity to select their presidential nominees, but perhaps also provided an opportunity to bolster the presidential campaign of former Gov. Larry Hogan, shortly after Hogan declared for the presidency (but before Trump announced he would not seek a return to the White House). Nonetheless, the primary date remained unchanged and Maryland Republicans nonetheless voted tonight, with 37 delegates to be awarded based on statewide (13) and congressional results (24, three for each CD) to the top vote-getters at both levels.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Larry Hogan - 33.56 percent (ALL 37 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 17.81 percent
Nikki Haley - 11.91 percent
Mike Pence - 10.14 percent
Mike Pompeo - 6.40 percent
Ben Sasse - 5.61 percent
Chris Christie - 5.10 percent
Ted Cruz - 4.94 percent
Candace Owens - 2.95 percent
(Remaining 1.58 percent went to other candidates, including 1.13 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Salisbury, Bel Air & Stevensville (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD2/Towson, Westminster & Middle River (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD3/Annapolis, Columbia & Glen Burnie (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD4/College Park, Laurel & Fort Washington (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD5/Waldorf, Bowie & Lexington Park (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD6/Gaithersburg, Frederick & Hagerstown (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD7/Baltimore, Dundalk & Woodlawn (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
CD8/Bethesda, Potomac & Olney (3 delegates): Larry Hogan
Statewide, at-large (13 delegates): Larry Hogan

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 101 delegates
Larry Hogan - 42 delegates +37 from Maryland
Ron DeSantis - 33 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Mike Pence - 14 delegates
Chris Christie - 10 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

Former Gov. Hogan used his home-state appeal to his advantage, winning one-third of the state's primary vote, including over 40 percent in districts along the Interstate 95 corridor between Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. In the eastern-based 1st and western-based 6th, Hogan performed under 25 percent, but still managed to win in both districts over DeSantis, who was the only other candidate to win over 20 percent of the vote in any of the state's eight congressional districts. While Levin managed to win a sizable number of votes that otherwise would have gone to DeSantis or Haley and overtake the former (albeit for a few seconds) for second place overall thus far, Hogan's appeal is virtually slim to none outside of the Old Line State.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

As was the case with Maryland, the District of Columbia also moved its presidential primary up to allow for voters in the surrounding DMV to have a unified opportunity to select their presidential nominees. In the case of the heavily Democratic District - whose Democratic dominance is such that the Republican line is much shorter - delegates to the Republican National Convention run on slates of 19 delegates pledged to either the winning candidate if it exceeds 50 percent of the vote or whichever contenders receive at least 20 percent of the vote (this is also a modification from the original winner-take-all method in which the winner would have gotten all 19 delegates).

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Larry Hogan - 34.14 percent (12 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 21.63 percent (7 delegates)
Mike Pompeo - 14.12 percent
Mike Pence - 8.64 percent
Ron DeSantis - 6.15 percent
Chris Christie - 5.78 percent
Ted Cruz - 4.15 percent
Ben Sasse - 3.10 percent
Candace Owens - 0.73 percent
(Remaining 1.56 percent went to other candidates, including 1.21 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 108 delegates +7 from the District of Columbia
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates +12 from the District of Columbia
Ron DeSantis - 33 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Mike Pence - 14 delegates
Chris Christie - 10 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

Hogan wins an even bigger percentage than that of his home state of Maryland - winning over 34 percent of the vote in the nation's capital, with Haley being the only other candidate to qualify with well over 21 percent of the vote. With Hogan winning 12 more delegates and Haley winning 7, Haley now has exactly twice as many delegates as Hogan. But unlike Hogan, whose numbers have pretty much plateaued here, Haley is expected to win more delegates as the night goes on. Interestingly, Owens gets fewer votes here than the recent dropout Rubio, who won 10 of the District's 19 delegates in 2016.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

The big show here of course is the Democratic primary, where 17 pledged delegates are to be awarded tonight, with six to be awarded based on results in one half of the district containing four wards of the District, five to be awarded based on results in the other half and its four wards, and six delegates to be awarded across the District.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 59.24 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 24.10 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 6.10 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 5.10 percent
Roy Cooper - 2.98 percent
Jared Polis - 2.31 percent
(Remaining 0.17 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
Municipal District 1/Wards 1, 2, 6 & 8 (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
Municipal District 2/Wards 3, 4, 5 & 7 (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (2 delegates):
Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
At-Large Delegates (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 227 delegates +12 from the District of Columbia
Elizabeth Warren - 177 delegates +5 from the District of Columbia
Pete Buttigieg - 32 delegates
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris performed most strongly with both establishment Democrats and African-Americans alike - both of which are in heavy supply in a place derided by political opponents as "the swamp". While Warren did perform better in some more heavily White liberal precincts throughout the District, Harris nonetheless ruled the night here.

MAINE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

In Maine's closed Democratic primary, 24 pledged delegates will be awarded tonight. Unlike the general primaries for both parties, the presidential primary will not utilize Maine's ranked-choice voting system and delegates will be awarded based on the DNC proportional formula at the congressional and statewide levels.

Results of Primary:
Elizabeth Warren - 38.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 29.51 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 15.59 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 10.41 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.59 percent
Roy Cooper - 2.41 percent
(Remaining 0.86 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Portland, Brunswick & Kennebunkport (9 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 5, Kamala Harris 4
CD2/Bangor, Augusta & Presque Isle (7 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (3 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 1, Kamala Harris 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
At-Large Delegates (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 2, Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 236 delegates +9 from Maine
Elizabeth Warren - 188 delegates +11 from Maine
Pete Buttigieg - 36 delegates +4 from Maine
Roy Cooper - 28 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

As has been the case across New England, Warren continues to perform strongly, but as with Massachusetts more establishmentarian Democrats have sided with Harris, though not enough for Harris to overtake Warren statewide. Buttigieg manages to earn two delegates by barely crossing the 15 percent threshold due to his sizable performance in the more populist-leaning 2nd District (which covers all but the fairly urbanized southern corner of the state around Portland).

MAINE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Maine also has a closed Republican primary that also does not utilize the state's ranked-choice voting primary system. 28 delegates will be awarded, including 6 based on the 2nd District's vote for Donald Trump which was added by the now divided Maine Legislature in response to pressure from Republicans who wished to have a greater say in their presidential primary preference by counting the 2nd District separately towards the overall delegate count. Any candidate who wins at least 50 percent of the vote will receive all of the state's delegates; otherwise, delegates will be allocated to candidates who receive at least 10 percent of the vote (or 5 percent if no candidate reaches 10 percent). (Editor's note: The six delegates based on Trump's 2020 win in the 2nd CD are apparently not in the total delegate count, but it would be intriguing if any (at least) partial Republican majority in Augusta did something like this.)

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Nikki Haley - 25.55 percent (12 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 21.79 percent (10 delegates)
Chris Christie - 12.96 percent (6 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 9.21 percent
Larry Hogan - 8.67 percent
Mike Pompeo - 8.24 percent
Mike Pence - 7.91 percent
Ted Cruz - 3.91 percent
Candace Owens - 0.78 percent
(Remaining 0.98 percent went to other candidates, including 0.79 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 120 delegates +12 from Maine
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ron DeSantis - 43 delegates +18 from Maine
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates +6 from Maine
Mike Pence - 14 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

Haley continues to score well in New England with a narrow win in Maine, but the consolidation of much of the conservative vote in Maine towards DeSantis following his endorsement by Trump is obvious. Christie manages to gain the upper hand among straight moderates as the only other candidate to score delegate. Cruz suffers perhaps his worst percentage yet - a shocking 3.91 percent that is a far cry from where his campaign was early in the campaign cycle.

[SaintStan86]

It is now 8:30PM on the East Coast and 7:30PM in Arkansas where polls have closed.

ARKANSAS
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

40 Republican delegates will be awarded to presidential winners in Arkansas, with 12 to be awarded at the congressional level and 28 to be awarded based on statewide results. Absolute winners at the congressional level will win all three delegates, while plurality winners get two delegates and the runner-up one. Each presidential candidate will also be awarded at least one delegate if they win at least 15 percent of the vote statewide, with the remaining at-large delegates awarded to either an absolute winner or proportionally allocated amongst those who have won at least 15 percent statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 31.01 percent
Mike Pence - 20.49 percent
Nikki Haley - 15.94 percent
Mike Pompeo - 9.71 percent
Ted Cruz - 9.01 percent
Ben Sasse - 4.24 percent
Chris Christie - 3.90 percent
Larry Hogan - 3.31 percent
Candace Owens - 1.78 percent
(Remaining 0.61 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Jonesboro, Cabot & West Memphis (3 delegates):
Mike Pence 2, Ron DeSantis 1
CD2/Little Rock, Searcy & Clinton (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD3/Fayetteville, Fort Smith & Bentonville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD4/Pine Bluff, Texarkana & Hot Springs (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (28 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 13, Mike Pence 8, Nikki Haley 7

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 128 delegates +8 from Arkansas
Ron DeSantis - 63 delegates +20 from Arkansas
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Mike Pence - 26 delegates +12 from Arkansas
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

DeSantis's 11th-hour endorsement by Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and especially his endorsement by Donald Trump, is believed to have put DeSantis over the top in Arkansas. Pence's second-place finish, highlighted by his strong support in rural parts of the state and his endorsement by Sarah's father, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, gives him a much-needed boost in overall delegates. Haley's over 20 percent performance in the Little Rock-based 2nd enables her to not only cross the 15 percent vote threshold statewide, but also win a delegate in said district as well.

ARKANSAS
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

31 pledged delegates will be awarded to qualifying candidates in Arkansas's open Democratic primary.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 45.59 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 15.25 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 15.01 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 13.91 percent
Jared Polis - 5.62 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 4.10 percent
(Remaining 0.52 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Jonesboro, Cabot & West Memphis (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Roy Cooper 1
CD2/Little Rock, Searcy & Clinton (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2
CD3/Fayetteville, Fort Smith & Bentonville (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1, Pete Buttigieg 1
CD4/Pine Bluff, Texarkana & Hot Springs (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1, Roy Cooper 1
At-Large Delegates (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Elizabeth Warren 2, Roy Cooper 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 254 delegates +18 from Arkansas
Elizabeth Warren - 193 delegates +5 from Arkansass
Pete Buttigieg - 38 delegates +2 from Arkansas
Roy Cooper - 34 delegates +6 from Arkansas
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Despite having moved to New York more than two decades ago, former First Lady Hillary Clinton's endorsement continues to carry weight with Arkansas Democrats given a large chunk of her husband's '90s-era supporters still living today have since moved rightward; this, along with a sizable Black voter base within Arkansas's Democratic Party, is believed to have given Harris a large advantage. Three other candidates barely hover around 15 percent with Warren performing above 20 percent in the Little Rock-based 2nd and winning three statewide delegates as well, Cooper performing modestly in rural areas of the state and also winning two statewide delegates, and Buttigieg winning two congressional delegates in the 1st and 3rd Districts apiece.

Meanwhile, some of the contests that could not be called earlier because they were too close to call are starting to come in...

ALABAMA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

50 Republican delegates will be handed out tonight in a winner-take-most format, with 21 to be handed out at the congressional level and the other 29 to be delegated at-large. This is an open primary where a candidate is entitled to all of the at-large or individual congressional district delegates if they receive an absolute majority or is the only candidate with at least 20 percent of the vote. If no candidate has an absolute majority and more than one candidate receives 20 percent of the vote, the top vote-getter gets 2 delegates followed by 1 for the runner-up at the congressional level, while at-large delegates are proportionally allocated to qualifying candidates. If no candidate crosses the 20 percent threshold, the delegates at both the congressional and statewide levels are proportionally allocated.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 40.25 percent
Mike Pence - 20.14 percent
Nikki Haley - 13.31 percent
Mike Pompeo - 8.13 percent
Ted Cruz - 7.64 percent
Chris Christie - 3.13 percent
Ben Sasse - 2.63 percent
Candace Owens - 2.11 percent
Larry Hogan - 1.89 percent
(Remaining 0.77 percent went to other candidates, including 0.51 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
(Editor's note: The districts reflected here are based on the 2024 redraw aforementioned in this TL.)
CD1/Mobile, Dothan & Andalusia (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD2/Montgomery, Mobile & Eufaula (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD3/Auburn, Anniston & Prattville (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 3
CD4/Florence, Cullman & Northport (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD5/Huntsville, Gadsden & Fort Payne (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD6/Hoover, Springville & Clanton (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Nikki Haley 1
CD7/Birmingham, Selma & Tuscaloosa (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (29 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 19, Mike Pence 10

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 129 delegates +1 from Alabama
Ron DeSantis - 99 delegates +36 from Alabama
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Mike Pence - 39 delegates +13 from Alabama
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

DeSantis blew past his competition in much of the state, with his strongest performance coming in the southern-based 1st District connecting the Mobile area to the Wiregrass region, both of which border Florida, where he won over 55 percent of the vote. DeSantis also polled competitively in the suburban Birmingham-based 6th, where he pulled in 45 percent with Haley barely crossing the 20 percent threshold. DeSantis was held to under 35 percent in north Alabama, where Pence performed strongly but not enough to overtake first place.

ALABAMA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Democrats will award 52 pledged delegates to candidates based on the DNC proportional standards.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 51.50 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 19.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 13.41 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 8.69 percent
Jared Polis - 4.01 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.39 percent
(Remaining 0.37 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
(Editor's note: The districts reflected here are based on the 2024 redraw aforementioned in this TL.)
CD1/Mobile, Dothan & Andalusia (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD2/Montgomery, Mobile & Eufaula (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Roy Cooper 1
CD3/Auburn, Anniston & Prattville (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD4/Florence, Cullman & Northport (3 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 1
CD5/Huntsville, Gadsden & Fort Payne (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 2
CD6/Hoover, Springville & Clanton (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD7/Birmingham, Selma & Tuscaloosa (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 2
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Roy Cooper 2
At-Large Delegates (11 delegates):
Kamala Harris 8, Roy Cooper 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 292 delegates +38 from Alabama
Elizabeth Warren - 196 delegates +3 from Alabama
Roy Cooper - 45 delegates +11 from Alabama
Pete Buttigieg - 38 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Unsurprisingly, Alabama's disproportionately Black Democratic voter base works to Harris's advantage as she dominated statewide. Cooper also won delegates statewide and in every congressional district except the ones covering Jefferson County (home to Birmingham and its suburbs), where Warren won over 20 percent of the vote as well as in Montgomery and Tuscaloosa to win her only three delegates (all at the congressional level) in one of her worst performing states.

MISSISSIPPI
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

This primary, originally scheduled for March 12th, was bumped up one week to unify much of the South behind one uniform date. Candidates who qualify will earn at least one of Mississippi's 35 pledged delegates.

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 59.63 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 16.22 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 10.18 percent
Pete Buttigieg - 8.89 percent
Jared Polis - 2.41 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 2.29 percent
(Remaining 0.38 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Tupelo, Southaven & Columbus (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD2/Jackson, Greenwood & Natchez (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 9
CD3/Ridgeland, Starkville & Meridian (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5
CD4/Biloxi, Laurel & Hattiesburg (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 4, Roy Cooper 1
At-Large Delegates (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Roy Cooper 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 322 delegates +30 from Mississippi
Elizabeth Warren - 196 delegates
Roy Cooper - 50 delegates +5 from Mississippi
Pete Buttigieg - 38 delegates
Jared Polis - 7 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris turned in an even more dominant performance in Mississippi, while Warren fared even worse than in Alabama. Cooper is the only other candidate to receive delegates at either the statewide or congressional level.

MISSISSIPPI
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Also originally scheduled for March 12th before the Mississippi Legislature decided to "catch up" with the rest of the South sans Georgia and Florida (and of course, South Carolina), Republicans will be doling out 40 delegates with 12 to be allocated at the congressional level (all 3 if a candidate reaches 50%, otherwise the winner gets 2 and the runner-up 1) and 28 to be allocated proportionally to all candidates who win at least 15 percent of the vote statewide.

Statewide Results of Primary:
Ron DeSantis - 38.51 percent
Mike Pence - 23.55 percent
Nikki Haley - 10.45 percent
Ted Cruz - 9.11 percent
Mike Pompeo - 6.91 percent
Candace Owens - 3.00 percent
Ben Sasse - 2.84 percent
Chris Christie - 2.66 percent
Larry Hogan - 2.14 percent
(Remaining 0.83 percent went to other candidates, including 0.59 for Marco Rubio)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Tupelo, Southaven & Columbus (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD2/Jackson, Greenwood & Natchez (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD3/Ridgeland, Starkville & Meridian (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
CD4/Biloxi, Laurel & Hattiesburg (3 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 2, Mike Pence 1
Statewide, at-large (28 delegates):
Ron DeSantis 17, Mike Pence 11

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Nikki Haley - 129 delegates
Ron DeSantis - 124 delegates +25 from Mississippi
Mike Pence - 54 delegates +15 from Mississippi
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

While not as dominant a performance as nearby Mississippi, the result is relatively the same save for a larger share of the vote between DeSantis and Pence, as well as some closer distance too. DeSantis wins all four congressional districts in the state with pluralities, with Pence as the runner-up in all four districts and DeSantis scoring his biggest margin (over 47 percent) in the southern-based 4th District on the Gulf Coast. DeSantis has now all but caught up to Haley, while Pence is now tied with Hogan.

DELAWARE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Back east, Delaware's closed GOP primary was also bumped up to Super Tuesday to capitalize on the consolidation of presidential primaries in the nearby DMV behind this date. All 16 delegates will be awarded to the winner of the First State's presidential primary.

Statewide Results of Primary + DELEGATES EARNED:
Ron DeSantis - 24.27 percent (16 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 20.14 percent
Larry Hogan - 18.41 percent
Ted Cruz - 8.26 percent
Chris Christie - 7.76 percent
Mike Pence - 7.45 percent
Mike Pompeo - 5.26 percent
Ben Sasse - 5.01 percent
Candace Owens - 2.75 percent
(Remaining 0.69 percent went to other candidates, including 0.41 for Marco Rubio)

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Ron DeSantis - 140 delegates +16 from Delaware
Nikki Haley - 129 delegates
Mike Pence - 54 delegates
Larry Hogan - 54 delegates
Ben Sasse - 17 delegates
Chris Christie - 16 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 10 delegates
Ted Cruz - 6 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Candace Owens - 1 delegate
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate

While Hogan was thought to have a shot to win given his being from neighboring Maryland, Hogan fails to crack 20 percent of the vote and finishes third overall in Delaware. DeSantis, fueled by a strong showing in Sussex County (where he wins over 35 percent of the vote), wins Delaware's prized 16 delegates and overtakes Haley - who finished in second while narrowly beating Hogan and DeSantis in the counties of New Castle (home to Wilmington) and Kent (home to the state capital of Dover) - in the overall delegate count. Nor Christie's being from neighboring New Jersey nor Sasse's comparisons to the late Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont (who ran a similarly fiscal conservative-themed campaign that did well in college towns) are enough for them to move the needle.

[2016]

Haley needs to win NC & VA. If she does she will still be viable Candidate going forward.