2024 - A Blank Canvas

[2016]

Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton have no chance of winning! All 3 are basically angling for a Cabinet Position in a DeSantis-Administration. All 3 would be incredibly suited for Secretary of State. Cotton would be a good Secretary of Defense too.

[BigVic]

Rubio would be a good cabinet position. Haley for AG

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Rubio would be a good cabinet position. Haley for AG

Ew. No neocons in the cabinet please.

[SaintStan86]

Editor's note: Prayers be with the family of - as well as the people of Alaska - who were blessed to know Don Young over his near half-century of service to the Congress. Depending on what the circumstances are with regards to the special election, I am going to leave Alaska's at-large seat out of the presidential endorsement sweepstakes. But in this TL, Republicans will hold on to the seat, with the stronger-performing Republican having outperformed a united Democratic candidate and possibly an independent candidate as well.

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Neaco
Smith Center for the Performing Arts in downtown Las Vegas, site of the December 19, 2023 Republican presidential debates.

December 19, 2023
REPUBLICANS BATTLE IN DUELING LAS VEGAS DEBATES; LAST DEBATES FOR 2023 SERVE AS LITMUS TEST FOR CRUCIAL NEVADA VOTES
On Tuesday night, Republicans battled in two separate debates that were broadcast on various television stations across the country as well as the right-leaning cable news channel Newsmax TV, mostly on stations owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group and other companies including local NBC affiliate KSNV, Washington, D.C. ABC affiliate WJLA and dozens of other stations across the country. The debates were split in two based on polling position with one set of six evenly matched candidates participating in an initial 7pm ET debate and another group of six candidates taking part in a 9pm ET debate.

In the first debate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis squared off with outgoing Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas for the votes of conservatives, particularly when the latter was asked by moderator Sean Spicer (former President Donald Trump's first White House Press Secretary) about whether the need to audit the 2020 election was justified. When asked by Spicer if he was willing to audit results in certain states in future elections, Cruz responded "Of course I would. There is no right in the constitution more important than the right to vote. If Florida went for Biden, I would have done just that." DeSantis responded, "I have no doubt that voting irregularities were all over the place, but I'm not certain if I would have resorted to withholding the results when clearly Trump's loss may have more to do with poorly informed and poorly educated voters who fret more about his mean tweets than whatever reservations on principle one may have. Just imagine if those who claimed to be his biggest cheerleaders spent less time in car parades and more time knocking on doors, talking to their neighbors..." Neither one impressed businessman Mike Lindell who stated, "Of course y'all want to play it safe. Ron DeSantis just wants to say that to avoid getting canned, because he knows that if Biden won Florida, he would have done what Brian Kemp did in Georgia," to the dismay of DeSantis.

Other than that, the first debate turned on many of the same issues addressed in prior debates. DeSantis took heat over his handling of COVID-19 in Florida and the post-COVID economy's moderating impact on Florida, while former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo directly proclaimed himself as "more qualified" to handle foreign policy matters than DeSantis, with the latter responding by pointing to his service as a JAG at Guatánamo Bay during the War on Terror, "For someone who is basically a shill of the defense contractor lobby to turn around and imply that I am not as qualified to handle terrorism as he is makes a draft dodger like Bill Clinton look like Gen. Patton". Sen. Cruz also responded to moderator Sharyl Atkisson's question to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on whether his ethics reform stances amount to an "apology tour" for Bridgegate (to which Christie replied 'no'), "Of course Gov. Christie wants to cover his own ass. Because nothing smells swamp more than bottlenecking traffic because your opponent didn't reciprocate your demands". Christie retorted, "Just like when you abetted Trump's supporters breaching the Capitol, right?". Former Gov. Larry Hogan, as the most moderate candidate on stage in the first debate, focused much of his responses around his governance of Maryland from 2015-2023 and largely steered clear of directly confronting his opponents, "Of course everyone wants to pick on Gov. DeSantis. Because obviously you don't have the former Vice President or Nikki Haley here to kick him around".

In the second debate, former Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence traded barbs on various issues, with Haley calling Pence "soft" on the issue of transgendered women in college sports and Pence accusing Haley of "repeatedly calling Trump's bluff while attempting to take credit for his keeping us out of war". Sen. Ben Sasse largely avoided controversy, instead choosing to focus on President Biden, "While other candidates on this stage are fighting over small fries, I'm here to talk about Biggie fries". Except for one particular issue: when asked by moderator Greg Kelly about whether or not his vote to convict Trump disqualifies him as a Republican presidential candidate, Sasse replies "Of course not. There is no litmus test for weeding out a candidate based on one vote out of many, and many of the supporters I have talked to know it and would rather move on that dwell on the past". Not surprisingly, other candidates on stage aren't impressed; fellow Sen. Tom Cotton replied "Regardless of whatever opinion one might have of him, whoever wins the GOP nomination in this election is going to be one that Donald Trump has clear confidence in. Being called "little" by the former President (who mockingly refers to the Nebraska Senator as "Little Ben Sasse") is rather disqualifying".

All of the candidates on stage expressed support for Israel, with Haley proclaiming "The importance of Israel to global democracy and to our standing in the region is too great to completely leave it to chance", highlighting her successes in defending Israel as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, even as most countries sanctioned the nation for its treatment of Palestinians and their government. However, one source of contention was regarding foreign aid. When asked about whether or not withholding foreign aid also applied to the Jewish state by moderator and Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Joecks, Candace Owens replied, "What has spending trillions of dollars in endless wars overseas, butting in to the business affairs of other countries, actually done to benefit Americans? Nothing. It doesn't matter if it's Israel or Ukraine or what have you...what matters is that those trillions we have spent overseas have not benefited regular Americans in the end." Haley responded by arguing "if we were to simply withdraw ourselves from the world because of some belief that Americans should not care what other countries think of us, we are doing more to embolden dictators like Putin and Xi than actually promoting a free society", and argued that "peace through strength" should not translate into "go it alone".

In addition to many of the same themes addressed in prior debates, attention was also focused on such matters important to Nevadans as states' rights, economic diversification and the issue of prostitution. Moderator Greg Kelly, who like Spicer is himself a Newsmax host, also asked Sen. Marco Rubio about whether legalizing prostitution at the federal level is a backdoor channel to "defund the police". Rubio responded by pointing out that matters like prostitution are best left to the states, "What's good for Nevada isn't necessarily good for Florida, and prostitution is certainly something Floridians shouldn't be known for". Sen. Sasse also responded by walking around the issue and pointing instead to the 2014 Bundy land grazing standoff in Nevada, "When you are subjected to a microscope because your animals grazed on land that the federal government isn't even using regularly, that's a bad sign". Sen. Cotton, meanwhile, chided Sasse by saying, "Until your cows have ingested nuclear waste from Area 51, that is." All of the candidates on stage also addressed the need for regional economies that aren't solely dependent on tourism, with Pence promoting the idea of planting a proposed Space Force Academy in Nevada, "Elon Musk is already investing in Nevada, why not move the whole space program and the Space Force academy here?" Not surprisingly, Sen. Rubio (whose home state includes Cape Canaveral) was unimpressed, "You owe me a trillion dollars, Mr. Vice President".

Overall, the debates were nothing spectacular, but signs pointed to Gov. DeSantis being pushed into a more defensive posture, while in-state polling conducted after the debate showed Haley and Sasse gaining some support for their foreign policy and states rights' stances along with Cotton, whose combination of a "strong national defense" and "loyalty to Trump" appeared to play well to the state's large military and defense vote bloc. Both Christie's combative stances when asked about the Bridgegate scandal in New Jersey and Hogan's "nice guy" approach during the debate, while it won them plaudits from more moderate Republicans, failed to produce any new momentum. With the last debate of 2023 now wrapped up, the candidates have largely retired to their home states for Christmas and New Year's, with many major endorsements expected at the dawn of 2024 on both sides.

[SaintStan86]

Editor's note: Jeff Fortenberry is resigning from Congress after being convicted in an FBI corruption trial. Very likely IRL and definitely in this TL, Mike Flood is the new Congressman for the 1st District in Nebraska (Lincoln and the southeast corner of the state).

The holiday season has come and gone with its usual mix of Christmas tree sightings, family dinners, charitable food drives and rescue missions, and campy Christmas advertisements from the candidates. As expected, the Republican candidates in unison wished their supporters Merry Christmas while the Democrats wished their fellow travelers Happy Holidays, with Ron DeSantis's lighted palm trees, Kamala Harris's blended family Chrismukkah, Mike Pence's frequent invoking of Jesus, Elizabeth Warren's Oklahoma holiday getaway, Nikki Haley's Clemson-adorned holiday tidings, Pete Buttigieg's "Happy Gay Holidays" ad with his husband and kids, and Ben Sasse's love for the Nebraska Cornhuskers (despite Sasse himself not being an NU alum himself) being some of the highlights. Oh, and Tom Cotton chopped down a tree to decorate in full frontal flannel out in the Arkansas wilderness!

But as the new year rings in, some highlights of defensive and attack ads on the part of the candidates have started to take center stage. In Iowa, with Sasse threatening Pence's lead in the state and running ads attacking Pence for waddling between "standing on principle" and "being loyal to Trump", Pence has responded with a new no-frills attack ad composed of audio excerpts from a tele-town hall Sasse conducted before the 2020 election in which he criticized Trump. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley has responded to ascending hawk candidates Pompeo and Cotton by attacking both as "inexperienced" and "ineffective" on foreign policy, while Cruz has taken shots at Pence over both the election and certain social issues such as public accommodations for transgendered individuals.

On the Democratic side, Harris faces the largest barrage of attack ads, including being called supposedly "unserious" by Warren, who herself draws criticism from a Harris ad featuring blue-collar Iowans bemoaning about "being starved to death by New England liberals" - with Warren in turn accusing Harris of using "Republican talking points". North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper - to the tune of Bruce Springsteen - completely ignores the other candidates, while also highlighting himself as "a real Democrat who appeals to the everyman in us - the real Americans who make America great" including video shoots with nurses, police officers and steelworkers. Buttigieg, as expected, turns to David Letterman once again to puff up his campaign in his latest ad - including an extended YouTube ad highlighting the "Top 10 Reasons to Vote for Pete Buttigieg".

Meanwhile, the battle for the Senate remains largely unchanged with some shifts to the right. Republicans remain expected to win 53 seats in November with one widely expected pickup in West Virginia, while the House remains projected to remain in Republican hands with either a slight GOP increase or decrease expected. Three notable shifts have occurred in Minnesota, where Michele Tafoya's entry against a competitive DFL field has turned the open race for Amy Klobuchar's seat on its head, in Virginia, where incumbent Democrat and 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine is now polling within the margin of error against his likely GOP competitor, State Senator Jill Vogel, and in Maine where the retirement of Angus King has suddenly turned Maine into a battleground between leading Republican candidate Rick Bennett and a crowded Democratic field led by U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree and former U.S. Rep. Jared Golden; while Democrats are narrowly favored in recent polling, Bennett has outraised the two leading Democrats combined.

On the debate stage, the remaining GOP debates before and in between the three Super Tuesdays in March have also now been set, kicking off with a successive set of four Republican debates in the run up to the February 5th Iowa caucuses. The RNC has now scheduled two more debates before the Iowa caucuses, on Friday, January 26th from the Aronoff Center in Cincinnati (to be televised by CNBC and Telemundo) and on Wednesday, January 31st from Chrysler Hall in Norfolk, Virginia (to be televised by CNN and co-hosted by Salem Radio with Trump administration alum Sebastian Gorka as a moderator). After the New Hampshire primary, three more debates have also been scheduled by the RNC. The first of these three, from the Peace Center in Greenville, S.C., will take place on Saturday, February 17th and will be televised on CBS one week before the South Carolina primary. The next of these, right before Super Tuesday on Friday, March 1st, will be held from Davies Symphony Hall in San Francisco and televised by NBC and Telemundo. The last of these new debates will take place on Saturday, March 16th from Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre in Atlanta, televised exclusively on Fox News.

The rest of the Democratic debates have also been scheduled as well, starting with a debate televised by MSNBC from the North Charleston Performing Arts Center in North Charleston, S.C. on Wednesday, January 24th - three days before the Democrats' earlier-scheduled South Carolina primary the following Saturday, as well as a debate televised on CNN from the J. Scheidegger Center for the Arts on the campus of Lindenwood University in St. Charles, Missouri (a suburb of St. Louis) on Tuesday, January 30th. After the already scheduled ABC/Univision debate from New Hampshire's St. Anselm College on Friday, February 9th, there will be two additional debates: a debate from the Roadrunner music venue in Boston on Saturday, February 24th to be televised on CBS, and a debate from the Majestic Theatre in Dallas on Friday, March 1st to be televised on NBC. No debates are expected to be scheduled after March 1st for the Democrats, especially given Harris - who holds large leads in several of the first Super Tuesday states - is projected by many sources to be the presumptive nominee after the first Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, with New Year's resolutions now set to be fulfilled (or broken), there is another debate upcoming...

January 2, 2024
FOX ANNOUNCES FIELD FOR NINTH REPUBLICAN DEBATE IN IOWA
On Tuesday's edition of Fox & Friends, host Steve Doocy announced the field for Thursday's upcoming Republican presidential debate in Des Moines, Iowa, which will be televised on Fox News Channel and simulcast on the Fox network. The debate, scheduled to take place at Hy-Vee Hall inside the Iowa Events Center, is expected to have a narrower field with new requirements that candidates either have a national average of 4 percent in weighted polling from three of four qualifying polls and/or a statewide average of 4 percent in two of three qualifying polls within Iowa - each group divided 50/50, with priority given to national qualifiers with the highest statewide average, followed by national qualifiers alone and then statewide qualifiers alone.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 4TH PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (Fox News @ Des Moines, IA)
Candidate	Weighted Avg. (1/2)	Poll A (12/31)	Poll B (12/29)	Poll C (12/23)	Poll D (12/20)	IA Poll A (12/29)	IA Poll B (12/23)	IA Poll C (12/20)
QUALIFIED IN IOWA + NATIONALLY
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	16.3	15	14	15	13	18	19	18
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	15.6	18	19	19	17	13	14	12
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	13.0	14	13	15	14	13	11	12
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	11.5	14	11	13	11	10	12	10
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	11.4	7	9	6	8	15	15	16
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	6.8	6	8	6	9	6	7	6
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	4.5	5	5	4	5	3	5	5
QUALIFIED NATIONALLY ONLY
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.5	4	4	5	4	2	3	3
QUALIFIED IN IOWA ONLY
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	2.9	2	1	1	2	5	3	5
NOT PARTICIPATING
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	3.4	3	4	3	5	3	3	3
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	2.7	3	5	4	3	1	2	2
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	1.7	2	2	1	3	1	2	1

With the participation requirements having tightened for this debate and future debates expected to follow similar mandates, the lineup is expected to become smaller with the RNC intent on narrowing the field behind a consensus candidate by the first Super Tuesday. As a result, seven of the candidates have qualified on both the national and Iowa level, another has qualified nationally alone, yet another has qualified based on Iowa polling alone, and three have failed to qualify in both groups. However, the stage order - this time prioritizing Iowa toplines over the national averages - once again leaves DeSantis off of #1 due to another quirk with state toplines; whereas DeSantis holds a 4 percent lead with 18.3 percent of the national average, he is third in Iowa with 13 percent on average behind Pence (who is second nationally at 14.3 percent but leads Iowa with 18.3 percent) and Sasse (polling second on average behind Pence in Iowa despite only polling 7.5 percent of the vote nationally), as the "coastal conservative" stereotype being affixed to DeSantis continues to jibe weakly with "middle America" Iowa voters more used to traditionalist and blue-collar-oriented conservatives.

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 4TH REPUBLICAN DEBATE

8. Hogan

6. Pompeo

4. Haley

. 2. Sasse

1. Pence

3. DeSantis

5. Cruz

7. Cotton

9. Lindell

Rubio and Christie both barely fail to qualify based on his average polling just under the 4 percent threshold nationally, with their performance in Iowa being notably worse than the national average, when Owens falls well below the threshold both nationally and in Iowa. None of the uninvited candidates are dissuaded by this latest snub. Rubio points to his campaign "gaining momentum" against like-minded competitors such as Haley, while Christie points out that "I'm not missing anything" and vowed to focus on a strong showing in New Hampshire, where Christie is polling stronger along with Nevada. Owens also vows to proceed forward with her campaign, scheduling a "counter town hall" at Drake University hosted by a group of her supporters on the private university's campus northwest of downtown Des Moines. "A debate is just a debate for whichever mainstream media source wishes to host to their own liking. Town halls are important - because they focus on what the people want, not stuffy suits who continue to ignore mountain movers who choose to fight".

[SaintStan86]

Editor's note: Retiring Democrat Filemon Vela has just resigned from Congress and is now entering the world of post-congressional lobbying according to credible sources. Whoever fills this seat, assuming the Republican candidate (who is already the GOP nominee in the new TX-34) does not clear 50 percent, will be filling the seat for only a couple of months as incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is not resigning from his current TX-15 to run here. In this TL, this seat is going to be held by Gonzalez, but has been redrawn to be more competitive as already explained.

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Gage Skidmore

Hy-Vee Hall at Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa, site of the January 4, 2024 Republican presidential debate.

January 4, 2024
DeSANTIS' NATIONAL APPEAL PUT TO TEST IN IOWA DEBATE
Republicans congregated in Iowa on Thursday night, just weeks removed from the state's upcoming presidential caucuses, to debate before a packed audience at the Hy-Vee Hall inside the Iowa Events Center. Televised on Fox News and moderated by Special Report anchor Bret Baier, Fox News primetime host Laura Ingraham and contributor Rachel Campos-Duffy, whose husband is a former Congressman from neighboring Wisconsin, the debate centered on domestic and social issues of importance to Iowa voters and for which Donald Trump seized on its traditional reverence for populist politics to capture the state by a favorable margin in both 2016 and 2020. It also served as an opportunity for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has faced criticism of being a "coastal conservative" insufficiently attuned to the concerns of culturally conservative "middle America voters" in recent months, to silence such criticisms and broaden his appeal to the region of the country responsible for Trump's 2016 victory. While most of the issues at hand during the debate were points already rehashed in earlier debates, there were some breakthrough talking points that came about on the Fox News-televised debate.

Early in the debate, moderator Baier asked DeSantis how his steadfast opposition to "corporate welfare" in regards to policies concerning transgendered individuals has enabled him to avoid severe electoral ramifications that befell other Republicans (such as former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory whose public accommodations legislation became an albatross after it sparked backlash from the business community in North Carolina). DeSantis responded, "The difference is simply I stood by my principles and communicated the legislation I have championed in an authoritative and compelling way so that folks could understand that I was not attacking the workers at Disney and the NCAA, but rather the management that seemed more concerned with bending to a few woke executives who live behind gated mansions and never thought once of appearing on Undercover Boss. And guess what? The NCAA still awarded championships including March Madness events in Orlando and elsewhere to Florida, and Walt Disney World had a record-breaking year. The only feelings we hurt in the end were those few executives and the PR lifeboats they were too eager to please who care more about pleasing everyone than standing for what's right. Something Vice President Pence could never compound."

Former Vice President Mike Pence responded, "Governor, I do admire you for standing you ground in the face of woke mobs, but to say I just folded my cards and went home is ridiculous. When I sought the same thing in Indiana when I was Governor, the NCAA - which is based in Indianapolis by the way - also reacted strongly when our bill was crudely written and still awarded us Final Fours anyway. Clarifying what the bill entailed helped smooth over those issues." But DeSantis wasn't impressed, "Then why did those same sponsors who backed you initially call you a 'sellout'?" Pence tersely responded, "Can't please everyone." Sen. Ben Sasse responded, "At least I have the privilege to a) continue to see the College World Series in Omaha, and b) witness our Olympic swimmers go through Omaha to get to Paris". Pence chided to Sasse, "Just make sure the boys and girls are swimming separately, OK?".

DeSantis also drew reaction when he criticized former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, who served as U.S. Ambassador to China under Trump, for "bowing to Big Beef" on farm bills and legislation when he vowed to rein in "excessive spending in our farm bills that don't actually serve the people who need it the most - family farmers, not large corporations who simply don't take pride in the food they serve". Former Ambassador Nikki Haley responded, "I know Gov. Branstad well. I know for one he puts family farmers and workers first. He also went to Tibet and saw firsthand their struggles. I don't particularly care for 'pink slime' either, but you may want to think about it before you go attacking a man who Iowans including their wonderful Gov. Kim Reynolds revered and still rever to this day". Sen. Ted Cruz responded sarcastically, "Looks like we have our first vegan President, and it's not a Democrat!". (During the debate, Google searches on 'pink slime', a reference to a processed beef filler called "lean, finely textured beef" (LFTB) whose product was controversially defended by Branstad during his second tenure as Governor of Iowa, skyrocketed.)

Another issue that certainly weighed on the debate was immigration, which particularly got heated when the issue centered on a recent tragedy in Iowa. When asked by Ingraham about the issue of crime caused by illegal immigration, Cruz brought up the case of Mollie Tibbetts, a University of Iowa student who was murdered by an illegal alien in 2018 while jogging outside her rural Iowa home, "Let us not forget that what happened to Mollie Tibbetts was the end result of an illegal immigrant who should have been deported". Former Gov. Larry Hogan responded, "You are aware that Tibbetts has Hispanic relatives and her family has defended the Hispanic community, right?" Cruz responded, "Well, I am kinda aware, I just don't see how this is a racial thing since we're not talking about lynching". Sasse also reacted, "Senator Cruz obviously has no clue that this was a tragedy where race is something that is best left out of the picture. If I were to boast of her name, like Donald Trump at least did when talking about Kate Steinle in San Francisco, I would consult with her family first". Pence responded to Sasse, "Senator, I do have to give you credit since that's the first time you've at least acknowledged Trump all along."

On foreign policy, Haley expressed her unwavering support for Ukraine in the wake of their ongoing war with Russia while attempting to make a connection to Iowa, "The people of Ukraine deserve the utmost respect for standing up for freedom that Vladimir Putin was so eager to take away, and the fact that Ukraine is essentially Europe's breadbasket is proof that Iowans should be more aware since if it were to be invaded by say China, it would be bad news for America's - and the world's - economy". Former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo responded, "Ambassador, I was there with Donald Trump and Jon Huntsman, Jr. (then the U.S. Ambassador to Russia) when Ukraine became a flashpoint. We worked hard with Zelenskyy to prevent a war with Putin that has since become reality under Joe Biden. Where were you? Giving speaking engagements to hostile media sources and Trump skeptics, that's what." Haley retorted, "Are you sure you weren't there to demand Zelenskyy investigate Hunter Biden?" Sen. Tom Cotton also criticized Haley, "Maintaining a strong military is crucial to protecting America's food supply, as Sen. Josh Hawley and I know all to well. I worked to help fund our defense against Russian rebels. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, chose to walk away", with the latter responding, "I didn't walk away, and I certainly didn't turn on Trump at all. Also keep in mind your foreign policy isn't any different than George W. Bush's," with Cotton responding "I don't know the Bushes, but I do know that they believed - like all Republicans should - in a strong national defense" to mixed applause and loud jeers of "Warmonger!" and "Traitor!" which led Cotton to respond, "I'm a patriot and nothing more!".

Manufacturing and education also became key flashpoints in the debate, with Mike Lindell using Rachel Campos-Duffy's question of "Should education priorities be re-oriented towards training workers who want to make money right out of high school?" Lindell responded, "As the proud employer of hundreds of workers just north of here in Minnesota, I say yes. There are good things you learn in business school or engineering, but I think a career in manufacturing, welding, the trades - you know - is more rewarding because you're actually making high-quality stuff Americans will buy instead of rewarding a hostile enemy". He also strongly condemned critical race theory, as all of the Republicans have done save for Hogan who argued "Critical race theory is not even an issue that affects a large number of voters, so why are we still treating it like it's a Satanic bible, and I don't mean a Harry Potter book?" Cruz responded with the usual spiel that CRT is "divisive, racist and teaches us to ignore MLK's pleas not to judge Americans by race" but also makes a diversion, "On a side note, I enjoy reading Harry Potter. Especially since their author has been canceled by the woke mob." Asides from the "pink slime" discussion, not much else was said on the issue of agriculture, with the same standard GOP spiel on "crafting financially responsible farm bills that favor smaller farmers", "increasing American farm production" and "not risking our food supply with corn subsidies for ethanol".

On other issues, the candidates generally expressed support for "clean infrastructure bills without the wind and solar junk", "constitutional judges who are not radical activists" and "standing up to Russia and China", along with various tradcon positions on abortion, school choice and defense of law enforcement. Overall, the debate was viewed with a mediocre response from the audience at home and in person, with the most positive scores being directed towards Sasse for his "show of decency" on the issue of Mollie Tibbetts, DeSantis for his "steady defense of the infamous 'Don't Say Gay' bill in Florida with being combative or defensive, and Lindell for talking up his manufacturing experience, while most of the negative reactions went to Cruz for his "clumsy handling" of the Mollie Tibbetts example and (from some fringe evangelical circles) suggesting that he liked Harry Potter and Cotton for his support of the "Bush Doctrine", which largely relied on a neoconservative foreign policy that has since been jettisoned by Republicans in the Trump era. Haley and Pence both drew mixed reactions generally; Haley drew praise for comparison of Ukraine's breadbasket status to Iowa's while drawing fire for bringing up Trump's infamous exchange with Zelenskyy that formed the basis for the first impeachment trial, while Pence continued to do well among social conservatives while continuing to draw tepid support from "core Trump voters" for obvious reasons related to the offense that led to the second impeachment trial.

[SaintStan86]

January 8, 2024
WARREN EARNS KEY UNION ENDORSEMENTS; EMILY'S LIST, EVERYTOWN ENDORSES HARRIS
Over the weekend, Democrats earned some key endorsements in the 2024 presidential election that could give an edge to one candidate in the primary. On Sunday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren received the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas, one of the largest union locals in the country and the largest in a right-to-work state, which employs over 60,000 workers at restaurants, resorts and similar establishments across the Las Vegas metropolitan area as well as Reno. The union's President, Diana Valles, pointed to Warren's strong support for increased wages for workers, a single-payer health insurance system, and "unwavering commitment" to anti-discrimination laws as reasons for endorsing Warren. Hours later, the national AFL-CIO endorsed Warren, with President Liz Shuler pointing to Warren's "long history of standing for workers and other Americans "who need a leg up in a society that systemically favors certain privileged groups at the expense of the common man and woman". The Working Families Party, a progressive political party which has been a key endorsee in several Democratic races primarily in New York and increasingly elsewhere, also endorsed Warren as "the true progressive candidate in the race".

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris won the endorsements of EMILY's List, an organization committed to electing pro-choice women to Congress, and Everytown for Gun Safety, a pro-gun control advocacy group founded by 2020 presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg. John Feinblatt, president of Everytown, pointed to Harris's "steadfast commitment to preventing gun violence in America", while EMILY's List President Laphonza Butler called Harris "a trailblazer for pro-choice women all across America who broke barriers as San Francisco District Attorney, as California Attorney General, as a U.S. Senator from California, and most certainly as Madam Vice President". Two other highly-sought after endorsements, those of the American Federation of Teachers and Giffords PAC (a gun safety advocacy group founded by former Arizona U.S. Rep. and mass shooting survivor Gabby Giffords), have yet to be handed out with the former reportedly viewed as "unlikely to make a direct endorsement despite its affiliation with the AFL-CIO which has endorsed Warren.

With these key endorsements, Harris has distinguished herself as the leading candidate amongst more traditional center-left liberals in the Democratic Party, with a large base of support among African-Americans and much of President Joe Biden's political base, while Warren has become the clear favorite amongst progressive and union voters within the Democratic Party power structure.

January 9, 2024
REPUBLICANS EARN KEY ENDORSEMENTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM, REGARDLESS OF STATUS ON TRUMP
Over the weekend, the picture of who has endorsed who amongst the wide Republican field began to crystallize as a number of crucial endorsements began to trickle in over the past weeks, with two major conservative commentators lining up their endorsements behind separate candidates.

On Friday, Gov. Ron DeSantis earned the support of Fox News host and talk radio institution Sean Hannity during the latter's Friday night show - a rarity as Hannity usually reserves the Friday night broadcast for guest hosts such as Jason Chaffetz (who is now running for U.S. Senate in Utah against Mitt Romney). Hannity cited "DeSantis's undying commitment to standing up to the media mob and others who would like to see conservatives take their marbles and go home" as the primary reason for his endorsement of the Florida Governor. It is far from the only major endorsement DeSantis has received, with fellow conservative commentator Matt Walsh encouraging his "Sweet Baby Gang to vote for DeSantis in the primaries and caucuses across America" and OutKick kingpin Clay Travis urging his listeners to "score touchdowns" for DeSantis after Thursday's debate. Numerous current and former Florida state legislators and mayors have also endorsed DeSantis, including several who were more familiar with the work of fellow presidential candidate Marco Rubio (who once served as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives) than that of DeSantis.

Meanwhile, former Ambassador Nikki Haley received the endorsement of conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, who has invited Haley over many times to his various podcasts and radio shows. In endorsing Haley, Shapiro proclaimed the former Ambassador and South Carolina Governor as "the ultimate weapon against victimhood and cancel culture who won in spite of her diverse background, not because of it", and also pointed to her strong defense of Israel as a primary factor in endorsing Haley. Another Jewish conservative commentator, Dennis Prager, also endorsed Haley recently, calling the former Ambassador to the United Nations "a true friend to Israel who stood tall when other representatives at the UN tried to make her bow against America's closest ally in the Middle East".

Former Vice President Mike Pence earned the endorsement of his fellow Hoosier, Sen. Mike Braun, on Monday, along with those of several other members of Congress including Indiana U.S. Reps. Jim Banks (who serves as House Majority Whip) and Victoria Spartz (who was born in Ukraine). "Vice President Pence has been a steadfast defender of conservative values his entire life, and I am honored to endorse my fellow Hoosier to become the 47th President of the United States", Braun proclaimed in an endorsement letter to his followers on Facebook. Sen. Ted Cruz received the endorsements of several Texas Republicans including influential Houston conservatives Steven Hotze and Gary Polland, as well as U.S. Reps. Pat Fallon, Ronny Jackson (who once served as Donald Trump's White House physician) and Wesley Hunt and former U.S. Reps. Ted Poe, Louie Gohmert and Kevin Brady. Prominent Houston restaurateur Tilman Fertitta, owner of the NBA's Houston Rockets who once flew future Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly to his ailing wife (then U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords) after she was shot in a 2011 mass shooting, recently hosted a $1,000-per-plate fundraiser for Cruz at his Mastro's restaurant in west Houston where he raised well north of $1 million.

Amongst other candidates, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was endorsed by the entire Kansas congressional delegation as well as one-time Trump administration staffer and former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Kansas Gov. Derek Schmidt, while Sen. Ben Sasse earned the endorsement of former U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey (who like Sasse is a conservative who voted to convict former President Trump in his second impeachment trial) and his Nebraska colleagues in Congress including fellow Sen. Deb Fischer. Two prominent "Never Trump" groups have diverged on the presidential election with Heath Mayo, who founded the conservative-leaning NT group Principles First, endorsing Sasse and former U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who runs Country First PAC, endorsing former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan along with two moderate New England GOP governors, current Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (who has still not decided whether or not to run for Bernie Sanders' open Senate seat) and former Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. Conservative commentator Jack Posobiec, known for aggressively pushing the "Pizzagate" conspiracy theory, has endorsed Mike Lindell.

January 11, 2024
TEXAS GOP SENATE DEBATE MARRED BY INNUENDOS, POLICE CALLS
A chaotic debate at the University of Houston between several Republican candidates running for the nomination for Ted Cruz's open Senate seat became so disruptive that the Houston Police Department had to arrest several dozen members of the audience Thursday night, pushing what was supposed to be a two-hour debate past its time limit. The debate, sponsored by PBS member stations across the state of Texas including UH's own KUHT, lasted for over three-and-a-half hours after being interrupted several times in large part due to the actions of two fringe candidates who (according to recent polling) never even registered in the mid-single digits let alone double digits, but became notorious before and during the debate for various falsehoods and innuendos regarding their better-polling and better-funded rivals.

During the debate, former Travis County GOP Chairman Rob Morrow and InfoWars host Harrison Smith, who are both polling at 2 percent and 1 percent according to the most recent poll by The Dallas Morning News, made various comments whose veracity was being heavily challenged by the debate's moderators, Houston Public Media anchor Ernie Manouse, political reporter Jason Whitely (who works for WFAA-TV in Dallas) and former Harris County GOP Chairman Gary Polland. For example, Morrow (whose various conspiracy theories, false attacks on other politicians including his fellow candidates, and pictures of scantily-clad women across social media have made headlines across Texas recently) accused one of the leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, of being a "closeted twink whom they called Blinky" and became hostile when questioned by Polland about "whether or not Trump really did rape a child" - a point Morrow has repeatedly used in public since the 2016 election, often holding signs proclaiming "Trump is a Child Rapist!" outside Trump events in Texas. Smith, meanwhile, drew fire when he called another leading candidate, U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden, a "terrorist" for "advocating white genocide against Americans" and argued that "those who cry tears for Ukraine are no more American than President Xi", prompting Gooden to respond, "Harrison Smith is a provocateur for fake news, perhaps far worse than any mainstream media source can ever try to accomplish. He also is doing more to inflame tensions with China instead of actually doing something constructive to stand up to the CCP".

While tensions settled down for a moment, the debate reached its most chaotic climax during the second hour after InfoWars kingpin and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, whose outlet recently served as a base for GOP candidate and commentator Harrison Smith, walked into the auditorium drunk and wearing nothing but an American flag fashioned as an adult diaper, calling Crenshaw "a domestic terrorist" and former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (a Never Trump candidate vying for more moderate votes who is also a straight bachelor) "a deranged gay Black man who exhibits Trump guilt". After Houston police dragged a crying Jones out of the auditorium, the debate was stopped for nearly 30 minutes after a brawl erupted between UH students and other audience members, resulting in more than 50 people being arrested for disorderly conduct, with Jones also being charged with public intoxication and public lewdness in Harris County as well as federal charges for desecrating the American flag. More than 50 people were injured after a tear gas bomb was set off in the building, with over a dozen being taken to the hospital with brawl injuries and inhalation of tear gas.

As for the debate itself, the debate continued for an additional 45 minutes after the audience was cleared out before finally concluding at 10:21pm - nearly 90 minutes after it was supposed to conclude. Houston Mayor Mike Knox, a former HPD officer (and father of another who was killed in the line of duty) who has endorsed Crenshaw, condemned the behavior of the audience members who disrupted the debate, citing "There is no place for this kind of unwarranted civil discourse that does not add to the conversation", while the Houston Chronicle blasted the Republican Party of Texas for "allowing what was supposed to be a civil debate turn into a poor man's version of Morton Downey, Jr.'s 1980s talk show", even threatening to go as far as endorsing the Democratic candidate without any further discussion. Republican Party of Texas Chairman Matt Rinaldi responded to the chaotic debate by announcing that all audience participation in future debates for the U.S. Senate race would be "by invitation only", while stopping short of increasing debate eligibility requirements to exclude low-polling fringe candidates like Smith and Morrow.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

LMAO at the Texas Senate debate

[SaintStan86]

(Editor's note: There is going to be a replacement for Devin Nunes who will only be around before the new Congress is sworn in, and in my predictions it will be the venerable Republican Connie Conway who will be eager to cross this off her bucket list, to which we salute her. Also, I am going to resume talking about the Supreme Court now that KBJ is officially a Justice on the high court - only three Republicans voted to confirm her. Of those, Lisa Murkowski has already lost in this TL and Susan Collins won't have her seat up for grabs until 2026 and is widely expected to retire. Mitt Romney will have the most to lose; with Jason Chaffetz running in this TL against him since he has actually voted YEA on KBJ IRL, look for the Utah race to get very interesting now.

I also shall mention that the names in the next two debates coming up are changing in part because of the extremely volatile state of NewsNation - the former WGN America - in real life (Joe Donlon, who was listed in this TL as a moderator for the Republican debate they are hosting, has left the network and has since joined CBS O&O WBBM-TV in the Windy City, so his name has been extracted from here since this is a Nexstar debate with some input from Scripps and NOT a CBS debate). Of course, pitfalls like these can be expected when you are trying to do a realistic TL and real life gets in the way, but that's the beauty of what-ifs - not everything you say eventually becomes true, but it doesn't hurt to think about it when it could potentially happen. This is also NOT an endorsement of what the Q trash fantasize about - those people are insane and IMHO are NOT real Trump supporters, perhaps no different than drunken Alex Jones in this TL.)

January 12, 2024
NEWSNATION ANNOUNCES FIELD FOR DUELING PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES IN CHICAGO
On Friday night's edition of his primetime NewsNation show Dan Abrams Live, ABC News chief legal analyst and host Dan Abrams was joined by Court TV anchor Vinnie Politan, his former colleague at the original Court TV that is now truTV, in announcing the lineup for the network's upcoming debates the following week at the historic Chicago Theatre in Chicago's downtown Loop, which will also involve production and staff from NewsNation parent Nexstar as well as E.W. Scripps and Hearst whom serve as partner companies of sorts. Both debates are set to air nationally on NewsNation and also on local stations owned by the aforementioned companies (including WGN-TV in Chicago) with former NBC News and CNN anchor Soledad O'Brien (who hosts the Hearst-produced Sunday morning public affairs show Matter of Fact) serving as a moderator in both debates.

O'Brien will be joined on Tuesday's Republican debate by NewsNation host Ashleigh Banfield and Court TV primetime anchor Vinnie Politan (both former anchors on the original Court TV) as well as Chris Jones, the editorial page editor for the traditionally conservative-leaning Chicago Tribune. For Thursday's Democratic debate, O'Brien will be joined by Abrams (who also hosts the revived Live PD on NewsNation and once hosted programs on MSNBC), Scripps Washington correspondent Joe St. George and Lorraine Forte, who leads the editorial board for the traditionally more liberal Chicago Sun-Times. To qualify in both debates, candidates must have at least 4 percent of the vote in three of five recent select national qualifying polls, among other qualifying factors, according to rules set by both the RNC for Tuesday's debate and the DNC for Thursday's.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 16TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NewsNation/Nexstar @ Chicago, IL)
Candidate	Avg. (1/12)	Poll A (1/11)	Poll B (1/8)	Poll C (1/5)	Poll D (1/4)	Poll E (1/2)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	18.6	19	17	21	29	17
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	14.2	16	13	14	14	14
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	13.2	13	14	14	13	12
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	12.8	14	13	12	12	13
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	7.8	8	7	7	8	9
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	6.8	6	7	6	6	9
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	4.4	4	4	5	5	4
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	3.8	4	4	3	4	4
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.6	4	3	3	4	4
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.4	2	4	4	3	4
NOT PARTICIPATING
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	2.2	2	3	2	2	2
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	2.0	2	2	1	3	2

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 16TH REPUBLICAN DEBATE

9. Hogan	7. Cotton	5. Sasse	3. Cruz	1. DeSantis	2. Pence	4. Haley	6. Pompeo
8. Rubio	10. Christie

As expected, with the early qualifiers excluded, DeSantis returns to the top of the debate heap, followed by Pence. Haley, meanwhile, has fallen to fourth after a middling debate performance and a recent spat with Tucker Carlson on his Fox News show over her relationship with Trump (in which the host even had a L3 that read "Tucker Carlson Takes On Nikki Haley" during the middle of the conversation). Most of whatever supporters she did lose ended up going largely to Pompeo and Cotton, who share much of Haley's foreign policy tack. Cruz and Sasse have maintained their own, as has Hogan, while Rubio and Christie are now back in the loop given their support outside of Iowa is for the most part stronger than not; Rubio and Christie managed to barely qualify due to exactly three polls showing 4 percent support with the other qualifying polls treading below that threshold. Owens and Lindell, who are both polling weakly on a national scale, have been excluded from participating in the debate. Owens once again releases a statement in which she says "I'm not missing anything" and announced plans to hold a town hall at DePaul University with supporters during Tuesday's debate, while Lindell remarks, "What does NewsNation get like, two viewers every night? Our support is much stronger than that!"

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 18TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (NewsNation/Nexstar @ Chicago, IL)
Candidate	Avg. (1/12)	Poll A (1/12)	Poll B (1/10)	Poll C (1/7)	Poll D (1/5)	Poll E (1/2)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	32.2	32	32	31	34	32
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	24.6	27	28	23	23	22
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	12.8	10	13	15	13	13
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	6.4	8	5	5	7	7
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	6.0	7	7	6	5	5
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	5.4	6	5	6	4	6
Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)	3.8	4	3	4	4	4

While not much has changed with regards to the polling on the Democratic side, Warren has received a notable bump after earning the endorsement of both the AFL-CIO and Nevada's Culinary Workers Union, particularly from union and blue-collar voters including some who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. These endorsements have once again brought Warren closer to Harris in the last two polls conducted for the Democrats. Buttigieg, meanwhile, continues to trail both challengers while Cooper, Klobuchar and Polis remain mired around 6 percent of the vote. For Raimondo, whose donor base has plateaued and has barely qualified for this debate, many point to this debate as her "swan song", which the former Commerce Secretary has denied by saying "We are in it for the long haul", even though no campaign events for Raimondo have been scheduled past this debate with the Nevada caucuses coming up the following Saturday.

[SaintStan86]

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Marlene Calderon

The landmark Chicago Theatre at 175 N. State Street in Chicago's downtown Loop, site of the January 16th, 2024 Republican and January 18th, 2024 Democratic presidential debates.

January 16, 2024
REPUBLICANS TAKE OVER CHICAGO IN 2024 DEBATE AS IOWA LOOMS
On Tuesday night, Republicans made their case to voters in Chicago at the historic Chicago Theatre, in a televised debate that aired locally on WGN-TV and nationally on NewsNation and dozens of other television stations across the country. The debate, which focused on criminal justice and law enforcement issues, as well as the usual Republican smorgasbord of taxes, defense spending, culture wars and the economy, served as one of the last opportunities before the looming Iowa caucuses for Republicans to make their case to voters with critical endorsements set to be made in the coming days that could sink or swim several candidates' chances. As expected, the candidates marveled at the sight of being in the legendary venue, with Vice President Mike Pence calling it "the Sistine Chapel of Presidential Debates".

In regards to drug laws, while the candidates were largely united in seeking to reduce recidivism for repeat offenders, a contentious point came up when Sen. Tom Cotton called for increasing jail sentences for traffickers of cocaine and heroin, and suggested that legalizing recreational marijuana nationwide would be a "tragic mistake". Gov. Ron DeSantis, who legalized medical marijuana in Florida, agreed with the merits of Cotton's proposal but also called it "shortsighted", pointing out that "the so-called War on Drugs has done more to increase the surveillance state in this country than any failed government program or overseas conflict that has left our country with trillions in debt". When asked by moderator Vinnie Politan about whether or not he agreed with "enhanced interrogation techniques" used by the U.S. military at Guantánamo Bay (where DeSantis once served as a JAG), DeSantis pointed out "there are more effective ways to interrogate terrorists and foreign enemies than what was used by the George W. Bush administration" and noted that "when it takes Barack Obama to finally put a bullet through Osama bin Laden after trillions wasted in another country that didn't directly attack us on 9/11, what good does that really do for us?"

Sen. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, appeared to defend the controversial practice of waterboarding, which was used by federal negotiators during the War on Terror to get evidence out of suspects by pouring water over the heads of terrorists draped with towels. "If we were simply to look back and find ourselves guilty of doing many of the tactics we used to root out the architects of September 11th, we are essentially surrendering to the Taliban." Sen. Ben Sasse countered Cruz's comments, "We have already surrendered without getting rid of the practice. Getting out of Afghanistan without doing the job we needed to do is exactly what Joe Biden did, and he did so with disastrous repercussions". The relatively noninterventionist DeSantis is left chuckling, "Y'all make me laugh. This war did not have to extend beyond bin Laden, but because we put ourselves in the hands of radical empire builders, we have made it go on forever. I wouldn't have pulled our troops out the way Biden did, but as your President we're not going to waste our time fighting other people's battles when we can't even fix our own bridges or care for our own veterans".

Meanwhile, when the topic of police reform came up, moderator Ashleigh Banfield asked former Gov. Chris Christie if reforming law enforcement is possible without risking crime increases. Christie responded, "Of course not. Look, I'm a former prosecutor and U.S. Attorney. I know very well what police brutality has entailed and how it comes out of corrupt police unions who don't properly train and manage their own forces. But if our response to every shooting of an unarmed citizen is to cut funding for cops, we are actually undercutting our own safety." Christie also called for public-private partnerships to more effectively manage federal prisons, while denying that he is in favor of handing out excessive sentences for federal drug offenders. Most of the other candidates agreed, but Sasse, Cruz and DeSantis both railed against Christie's proposal. "What our federal prison system needs is a diversion program that does not lock up minor drug and white-collar crime offenders behind bars for life, and to direct these low-level offenders towards long-term probation sentences", noted Cruz.

The debate was briefly interrupted twice. When asked by moderator Soledad O'Brien about whether or not a travel ban similar to the one imposed in the first days of Donald Trump's presidency would be reinstated, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said yes, citing "It was defended with unanimous support from the Supreme Court and did not target followers of a particular religion, for which only a handful of countries out of dozens where it is the majority were targeted". This led to an outburst from activist Linda Sarsour, who apparently walked into the event uninvited and directed obscenities at Pompeo, leading to her arrest by Chicago police who dragged her from the balcony of the theater. Later in the debate, as the candidates were debating plans to lower middle-class taxes while reducing tax loopholes for billionaires, with former Ambassador Nikki Haley floating the possibility of a "Bezos Bill" to remove most tax carveouts for very wealthy individuals who often skirt federal laws, a streaker (adorned with Sharpie markings that spell out "Amazon Starves Workers") stormed the stage and disrupted the debate for nearly 40 seconds, prompting Chicago police and Cook County sheriff's deputies to beef up security around the perimeter of the theater afterwards.

This prompted a response from Cruz, whose own Senate seat's election debate in his hometown of Houston was marred by a brawl and mini-riot that caused injuries and property damage at the University of Houston the previous week. "Look, I understand your passions and concerns for this country, and that is why we fight every day for the American people. But when we resort to these kinds of thuggish and juvenile tactics because we can't learn to have a civil debate, we are playing into the hands of our rivals at home and our enemies abroad. We can't afford that, especially after all the damage that President Biden has caused." Former Gov. Larry Hogan, who drew high marks for calling the "Defund the Police" movement an attack on law enforcement and for his criminal justice reform proposals, responded to Cruz while also alluding to a famous remark at the 2016 Republican National Convention, "Thank you for standing up for truth, Senator. Now can you all do us a favor and promise to follow your conscience like you implored others to do eight years ago?" Cruz responded, "I certainly will, Governor, I certainly will".

On the topic of election reform, Chicago Tribune editorial page editor Chris Jones asked Pence if his vote to certify the election results will certainly doom his chances of becoming President. The former Vice President responded, "Of course not. Voters see the truth of how dangerous the Biden agenda has been for America and Republicans have looked at themselves and realized what they could have done to help Donald Trump in 2020." Pence also went on to commend Trump as "the most consequentially significant President since and even exceeding Ronald Reagan", and vowed to restore many of Trump's initiatives and programs on executive order upon taking office. Pence also took up the mantle on energy policy, "On Day One, I will rescind Biden's order that killed the Keystone XL pipeline, call its developer right away and authorize construction immediately, even invoking our military to hit the ground running".

On foreign policy, while many of the candidates focused on Israel and Ukraine, Sen. Marco Rubio paid special attention to his parents' native Cuba. "As President, I am going to continue the embargo against my parents' native Cuba, but with an aim to stand with those who believe in economic freedom and against the oppressive Castro regime that drove my parents away. The promise of a free and prosperous Cuba is possible, but only through 'peace through strength' will the vision of a Cuba freed from the Castros be realized." When also asked about why he is running for President against his fellow Floridian DeSantis, Rubio replies "Gov. DeSantis is a great guy. He has made Florida a shining state on a hill. No one could have asked for a better Governor in this country. The difference is that there are challenges in this world that require American leadership, leadership that isn't found in a narrow ideological vacuum".

The Republican debate was well received by the audience, but DeSantis appeared to be the bigger winner of the night as his nonchalant stances on drug and terrorism policies, as opposed to what seemed to be a prevalent neoconservative sentiment not unlike that of the George W. Bush era, appeared to perform strongly with conservatives and core Trump supporters. Haley's support for a "Bezos Bill" to close corporate and billionaire tax loopholes that result in progressive tax systems being made ultimately regressive, while drawing fire from some anti-tax purists as well as from the likes of Sasse and Pence, also won positive remarks from audience survey participants. Cotton's unabashed stance in defense of the War on Drugs - a point of contention for conservatives and civil libertarians in recent years - meanwhile has drawn opposition from such groups, with one anti-Cotton activist derisively referring to the Arkansas Senator as "Tom Q. Irontail", a reference to the antagonist "January Q. Irontail" in the Easter classic "Here Comes Peter Cottontail".

January 18, 2024
DEMOCRATS MAKE LAST STAND IN CHICAGO BEFORE FIRST CAUCUSES IN NEVADA
On Thursday night, Democrats gathered at the famous Chicago Theatre as hundreds of Democrats from Chicago and surrounding suburbs gathered to hear from their party's seven presidential candidates in the final debate before the Nevada caucuses on Saturday. It was also the first debate for the Democrats since some of the major national endorsements were handed out with social liberal groups such as EMILY's List backing Vice President Kamala Harris and union activists leaning towards Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Airing nationally on NewsNation and dozens of other TV stations nationwide including Chicago's WGN-TV, the debate emphasized criminal justice and urban development issues along with a whole host of other traditional Democratic issues, with former President Barack Obama (who introduced the candidates on stage and referred to the venue as "the most iconic theater in the world") and his wife Michelle appearing as surprise guests in the audience.

One of the biggest issues that came up during the debate was the matter of how to handle violent crime in urban areas, for which Democrats have often taken blame. When asked if her police reform proposals amount to a backdoor reintroduction of "Defund the Police" by moderator Dan Abrams, Sen. Elizabeth Warren remarked "Our police and firefighters are critical to maintaining order in our communities, and it shall be understood that many of these hardworking men and women are being underpaid and receiving fewer medical and retirement benefits than they deserve. But we also must understand that not every conflict in America necessitates calling the police every time," pointing to alternative diversion programs as a supplement to law enforcement. She also took aim at local governments who bought military and other government surplus solely for the purpose of "turning police departments into quasi-extensions of our military, not unlike the many militia groups that have centered their activities around the same sort of violent and hateful agendas that Donald Trump and his followers have emboldened."

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper responded to Warren by alluding to a famous TV show linked to his home state. "As the Governor of Mayberry, I am thankful everyday to the many men and women who serve as first responders, always on the frontlines. On TV, Andy Griffith may have played a cop and a lawyer on both sides of the judicial docket, but in real life he believed that at the end of the day the cops are more our friends than our enemies. Something the Senator from Massachusetts may want to see herself." Cooper receives a thunderous applause from the crowd, leading Stephen Colbert to proclaim on Twitter that "#DefundThePolice is dead. Long live #DefundThePolice!" Other candidates largely walked a fine line between calling for police reforms and increasing benefits for cops at the same time, but nothing close to the divergent extremes both Cooper and Warren displayed.

During the debate, another question that came up alluded to the future of President Obama's signature legislative package. When asked about how to save Obamacare by moderator Soledad O'Brien, Vice President Kamala Harris responded, "Since the Affordable Care Act was implemented, millions of Americans who never before could afford health insurance now have full coverage - medical, dental and vision - thanks to bipartisan efforts to strengthen and not weaken the system. Which Donald Trump was intent on doing, and which a future Republican President will certainly do to the benefit of corporate donors who are more interesting in dividing each other instead of uniting us as a nation". To buttress the ACA, Harris proposes implementing "Medicare for All" and toughening penalties for corporations who attempt to skirt federal health coverage and paid leave laws. She also vowed to push for gun control measures, arguing "those who believe in unfettered gun ownership without restrictions are on the wrong side of history".

The issue of electability was brought up during the debate as well, with former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo - who has consistently been the lowest polling candidate in the Democratic primary - pointing to her business background and successes navigating challenges related to COVID-19 both as Governor of Rhode Island and in the Biden administration. "When you look at countries like France where economic liberalization has created a sustainable advantage in the global economy, and compare that to countries like Russia who shackle their own people and dissenting voices, there is no apples and oranges comparison. More like comparing an apple to a lemon." When asked by moderator Joe St. George about whether or not her presidential platform is merely a copy of Harris's strategy, Raimondo replies, "Clearly, our Vice President has her own ways of doing things, and so do I. As President, I will work to advance fair play for every American, without creating an economic climate that won't work with a free country like ours", alluding to the successes of the "Third Way" strategy under former President Bill Clinton. Sen. Warren responded, "Secretary Raimondo has been quite helpful in regards to businesses in the wake of COVID, but what about before that?", pointing to Raimondo's own poor approval ratings before the pandemic.

Moderator Lorraine Forte, who serves as the editorial page editor for the Chicago Sun-Times, also brought up the issue of Illinois's economy during the debate, including such matters as diverse as economic development in Chicago's South Side neighborhoods (which have been historically underserved economically) and the safety of food production workers in the Downstate (outside of Chicagoland). Sen. Amy Klobuchar called for stronger protections for both farm and food factory workers as well as incentives for organic and sustainable farming, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg called for a reformation of federal food stamp and farming appropriations. Warren also vowed to "rein in corporations who knowingly underpay their workers and produce substandard food supplies that ultimately sicken Americans" by calling for corporations who violate federal food safety laws to be barred from receiving federal subsidies for at least 10 years. Gov. Jared Polis, whose state was one of the first to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, also vowed to a rescind any remaining restrictions on marijuana farming in states where the crop is legal, "Name one person in this theater who is offended at the sight of pot brownies?".

The candidates were also united in vowing to undo any remaining parts of the Trump legacy remaining in the Biden presidency, maintaining Biden's ambitious federal fuel and emissions standards, and "finishing the job when it comes to implementing clean energy", with Warren calling for an "exit tax" for corporations who respond to federal tax and environmental regulations by moving operations out of the United States. "It is past time for corporations to start paying their fair share and start treating their workers like family. Because if one corporation doesn't want to adapt to the new realities that President Biden is weaning us towards, there's another entrepreneur willing to do as good if not an even better job than what the turncoat corporation did before", Warren proclaims.

Overall, the debate - much like the Republican version two nights prior - received positive reviews, with Warren continuing to remain steadfast in her progressive economic views and Harris defining herself as the socially liberal "Obama legacy" candidate. Cooper also managed to maintain positive press, with his allusions to his state's favorite son Andy Griffith continuing to win support from increasing numbers of respondents from the South. Raimondo also maintained a positive impression, but pundits argued that for the former Commerce Secretary, it's a matter of "too little, too late"; with Nevada's caucuses taking place on Saturday and Raimondo the weakest performing of the entire bunch, it is widely expected that Raimondo will drop out after the Nevada caucuses. Indeed, in her closing speech, Raimondo remarked, "I thank President Biden for the opportunity to serve as your Commerce Secretary, the American people for putting their trust in me to help pull their businesses through one of the toughest periods of our time, and especially the people of Rhode Island who trusted me to serve as their Governor", with no indication of her campaign definitively continuing.

[Senator Cris]

Great work, keep going!

[SaintStan86]

Editor's note: Two more retirements to note. In Michigan, Fred Upton has now joined Adam Kinzinger, John Katko and Anthony Gonzalez amongst the Republicans who voted to impeach Trump that have decided to call it a career, while in Ohio, Bob Gibbs has decided to retire after six terms. Both districts are expected to remain Republican with fellow incumbent Bill Huizenga expected to coast to reelection in Michigan's new 4th (Kalamazoo and suburban Grand Rapids) and Trump-backed Max Miller believed to have the inside track in Ohio's new 7th (suburbs of Cleveland in Cuyahoga and Medina counties + some rural areas further south including Gibbs' residence). The Michigan map appears to be set in stone, but the one in Ohio stands a good chance of being struck down - though not in time for the primaries, so a new map can be expected in 2024.

ENDORSEMENTS (so far)
Now that the first caucuses/primaries have finally arrived with Nevada Democrats meeting in their own caucuses, here are some key endorsements to note with the candidates ranked by their general polling position:

REPUBLICANS

1. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida

• Lenny Curry, former Jacksonville Mayor
• Sean Hannity, Fox News host and conservative talk radio personality
• Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota
• Jeanette Nuñez, Lieutenant Governor of Florida
• Rand Paul, 2016 presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Kentucky
• Clay Travis, conservative talk radio personality, former Fox Sports host and founder of OutKick
• Matt Walsh, conservative talk radio personality
• Most of Florida's GOP congressional delegation, including Byron Donalds, Kat Cammack, Michelle Salzman, Greg Steube, Daniel Webster and Vern Buchanan

2. Former VP Mike Pence of Indiana

• Mike Braun, U.S. Senator from Indiana
• Dan Coats, former U.S. Senator from Indiana and former Director of National Intelligence
• Mitch Daniels, former Governor of Indiana
• Eric Holcomb, Governor of Indiana
• Todd Rokita, former Secretary of State and former U.S. Rep.
• Bob Vander Plaats, social conservative activist and CEO of The Family Leader
• Todd Young, U.S. Senator from Indiana
• All of Indiana's seven GOP U.S. Reps, including Pence's brother Greg Pence and Ukrainian-born Victoria Spartz

3. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina

• Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and 2023 gubernatorial nominee
• Jim DeMint, Chairman of the Conservative Partnership Institute, former President of the Heritage Foundation and former U.S. Senator and U.S. Rep. from South Carolina
• Henry McMaster, Governor of South Carolina
• Dennis Prager, conservative talk radio personality and founder of PragerU
• Ben Shapiro, conservative talk radio personality and founder of The Daily Wire
• Ivanka Trump, daughter of former President Donald Trump
• Four members of South Carolina's 8-1 GOP congressional delegation: Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, and Reps. Nancy Mace and Joe Wilson.

4. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas

• Tilman Fertitta, owner of the NBA's Houston Rockets and Founder/CEO of Landry's Restaurants
• Dr. Steven Hotze, social conservative activist and owner of Hotze Health & Wellness Center in Houston
• Gary Polland, former Harris County GOP Chairman and editor of Texas Conservative Review
• Several members of the Texas congressional delegation including Pat Fallon, Ronny Jackson, Troy Nehls and Randy Weber. All of the four running for Cruz's open Senate seat (Dan Crenshaw, Lance Gooden, Chip Roy and Roger Williams) have withheld their endorsements out of respect for Cruz.

5. Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska

• Heath Mayo, founder of Principles First
• Scott Rigell, former U.S. Representative from Virginia
• Pat Toomey, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and former President of the Club for Growth
• All of his Nebraska congressional colleagues: Sen. Deb Fischer and Reps. Don Bacon, Mike Flood and Adrian Smith

6. Former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo of Kansas

• Sam Brownback, former Governor of Kansas, U.S. Senator and 2008 presidential candidate
• Kris Kobach, former Secretary of State, 2018 gubernatorial nominee and Trump administration official
• Derek Schmidt, Governor of Kansas
• All 6 members of Kansas's congressional delegation (including freshman Rep. Amanda Adkins), along with former U.S. Rep. Todd Tiahrt

7. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas

• Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas
• Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas
• All of Cotton's 5 congressional colleagues from Arkansas

8. Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey

• Jeff Chiesa, former U.S. Senator from New Jersey
• Kim Guadagno, former Lieutenant Governor of New Jersey and 2017 gubernatorial nominee
• Geraldo Rivera, Fox News correspondent and former tabloid talk show host
• All three of the state's GOP U.S. Reps (Tom Kean, Jr., Chris Smith and Jeff Van Drew)

9. Former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland

• Charlie Baker, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Bob Ehrlich, former Governor of Maryland
• Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. Rep. from Illinois and founder of Country First PAC
• Boyd Rutherford, former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland
• Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont
• Michael Steele, former RNC Chairman and former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland

10. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida

• Lincoln Díaz-Balart, former U.S. Rep. from Florida
• Francis Suarez, Mayor of Miami, Florida
• Entire Miami GOP congressional delegation (Mario Díaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar)

11. Commentator Candace Owens of Tennessee

• Mike Cernovich, conservative political commentator
• Charlie Kirk, conservative talk radio personality and founder of Turning Point USA

12. Businessman Mike Lindell of Minnesota

• Michele Bachmann, former U.S. Rep. from Minnesota and 2012 presidential candidate
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Rep. from Georgia
• Jack Posobiec, conservative commentator and "Pizzagate" conspiracy theorist
• Lin Wood, attorney who alleged electoral fraud in 2020 presidential election

DEMOCRATS

1. VP Kamala Harris of California

• Joe Biden, President of the United States
• Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States
• Stacey Abrams, 2018 and 2022 Georgia gubernatorial nominee
• Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey
• Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader, U.S. Rep. from New York
• Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey
• Gavin Newsom, Governor of California
• EMILY's List, Democratic campaign organization that elects pro-choice women
• Everytown for Gun Safety, pro-gun control organization
• Planned Parenthood, women's health organization
• Many other endorsements too numerous to list, mostly from the traditional liberal and Obama wings of the party along with most of Harris's former congressional colleagues from California

2. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

• Shaun King, Black Lives Matter activist
• Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts
• Most of the Massachusetts congressional delegation
• Virtually the entire progressive "Squad" in Congress, as well as various progressive news sources and commentators including The Young Turks (Cenk Uygur, Ana Kasparian), Kyle Kulinski and Cornel West.

3. Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg of Indiana

• Joe Donnelly, former U.S. Senator and U.S. Rep. from Indiana
• David Letterman, former late night talk show host and comedian
• Beto O'Rourke, 2020 presidential candidate and former U.S. Rep. from Texas

4. Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado

• Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Rep. from Hawaii
• John Hickenlooper, U.S. Senator and former Governor from Colorado and 2020 presidential candidate
• Elon Musk, Founder/CEO of SpaceX and CEO of Tesla (also endorsing an unnamed Republican)
• Trey Parker and Matt Stone, co-creators of South Park and The Book of Mormon (both Libertarians)

5. Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina

• Michael Jordan, owner of the NBA's Charlotte Hornets, NASCAR team owner and NBA Hall of Fame legend
• Heath Shuler, former U.S. Rep. from North Carolina and former NFL quarterback

6. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

• Tina Smith, U.S. Senator from Minnesota
• Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota

7. Former Sec. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island

• David Cicilline, U.S. Rep. from Rhode Island
• Dan McKee, Governor of Rhode Island
• Jack Reed, U.S. Senator from Rhode Island
• Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator from Rhode Island

JANUARY 20, 2024
NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES UNDERWAY; FINAL POLLS REVEAL DEAD HEAT BETWEEN HARRIS, WARREN
It is high noon in the Silver State. While the Hoover Dam is teeming with visitors on a Saturday, casinos and buffets in Las Vegas and Reno fill up with gamblers and diners alike, wide open deserts across the vastly desolate landscape are embarked by globe trekkers, and thousands in hotel rooms on both ends awaken from whatever degree of hangover they may have had, Democrats in Nevada gather in various locations across the state to cast their presidential preferences and dole out the first 36 pledged delegates in a contest where the magic number is 1,885 out of a staggering 3,770. Originally set to take place in February, the caucuses were moved up to January in order to satiate Democratic demands for an earlier primary in states where a sizable minority population - something that is not seen in the traditional bellwethers of Iowa and New Hampshire - is extant, even though the state's presidential preference primary is still set to take place on Tuesday, February 6th - 17 days from today.

While some have criticized the Frankenstein approach Nevada is taking in the face of pressure from Democratic activists, others have viewed the bumped-up Nevada caucuses as a "new bellwether" for the nation that highlights the nation's "patchwork quilt" of ethnic and religious diversity. With Hispanics expected to play a major role in the 2024 presidential election, and a disproportionate number of them working in the state's hotels and casinos (including many members of the influential Culinary Workers Union which has endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren), Nevada is expected to serve as the first test of viability for a small Democratic field where only the most viable candidates will have a chance of receiving delegates. At the congressional district and statewide levels, only candidates who have reached the threshold of at least 15 percent of caucus votes will be able to earn national delegates, which is more than enough to potentially make or break at least one low-polling campaign.

According to the latest polls from Nevada, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are in a virtual tie for first place with about 30 percent of the vote apiece, with the latter having surged in the closing days due to the labor union endorsements - particularly from the Culinary Workers Union - received by Warren, which undercut Harris's sizable lead buoyed by both her support from many of the state's leading Democrats (including former Gov. Steve Sisolak and former U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto) as well as her familiarity to voters due to her being from neighboring California, which itself has lost many residents to the Silver State over the years and even was home to a large number of the victims of the October 2017 mass shooting on the Las Vegas Strip. The polls also show Pete Buttigieg with just over 15 percent and Jared Polis with just over 10 percent, while the rest of the field is in the low single-digits. However, the caucuses are usually different from primary polls, and are expected to have a greater percentage of dedicated partisan and ideologically liberal activists than the state's upcoming presidential preference primary, which usually attracts a more casual voting audience.

Elon Musk, whose Tesla has major operations and a sizable customer base in Nevada, has made a decision to make an endorsement in both parties. For the Democratic caucuses, he has endorsed Polis, pointing to the Colorado governor's "business-first, people-first mindset that reflects the future that we all wish for", and took shots at both Harris for "standing in the way of freedom" and Warren for "believing that antiquated and ineffective business models that no longer or never made sense just haven't been tried, while ignoring obvious examples overseas that prove their uselessness". Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic U.S. Rep. and presidential candidate from Hawaii who has became a cult favorite of Fox News viewers, has also endorsed Polis.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm surprised there isn't anyone running for the dem nomination to the left of Warren, even if they're only getting 2%. People like Kulinski who you have as endorsing Warren here are big critics of her and called her a "fake progressive" in 2020. I'm sure there would be someone like a Nina Turner who would run some doomed campaign.

[SaintStan86]

I'm surprised there isn't anyone running for the dem nomination to the left of Warren, even if they're only getting 2%. People like Kulinski who you have as endorsing Warren here are big critics of her and called her a "fake progressive" in 2020. I'm sure there would be someone like a Nina Turner who would run some doomed campaign.

Except at this point the far left is resigned to going with whichever candidate promises to deliver "the most" for their side, resorting to the sort of tactics that conservative ideologues used in this TL (and very likely are using IRL) to achieve victory. Of course, Warren's Republican past does come up, but it's also important to note that Harris is going to be viewed by the likes of Kulinski, Maddow and others as "corporate Democrats" in this TL. That is the whole crux of their MO, for if Harris is the Dem nominee there is a strong chance that the most far-left of these will likely break away to the Green Party nominee (whoever it may be), just they like did to Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins in recent years. In other words, the best "cure" for Democratic antipathy is to go far to the left, just as in their view the best "cure" for Republican antipathy was to go to the right (though with Donald Trump, the whole Republican math has been scrambled given the pivot constituencies in places like Ohio and Minnesota).

Speaking of "corporate Democrat", the one viewed as the most likely to embrace this stereotype (Raimondo) is trailing well behind and most of the dropout speculation has centered on her at this point. Could this be it for her? We shall see...

[SaintStan86]

NEVADA
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Results of Precinct Viability Caucuses:
Elizabeth Warren - 33.84 perecent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Kamala Harris - 30.80 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Jared Polis - 15.11 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 10.21 percent (DNQ)
Roy Cooper - 5.53 percent (DNQ)
Amy Klobuchar - 3.39 percent (DNQ)
Gina Raimondo - 1.12 percent (DNQ)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Las Vegas Strip & Henderson (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD2/Reno, Carson City & Elko (6 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2, Jared Polis 1
CD3/Summerlin, Enterprise & Laughlin (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3
CD4/North Las Vegas, Pahrump & Tonopah (6 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Jared Polis 1
At-Large Delegates (8 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 4, Kamala Harris 3, Jared Polis 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (5 delegates):
Elizabeth Warren 3, Kamala Harris 2

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 18 delegates
Kamala Harris - 15 delegates
Jared Polis - 3 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 0 delegates
Roy Cooper - 0 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 0 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Despite Warren's win being narrower than that of Bernie Sanders in 2020, much of the reasoning has to do with Harris being viewed as a "more relatable" candidate than Biden was in 2020, albeit with the caveat that Biden's campaign was largely seen as in disarray at the time of the Nevada caucuses in 2020; it would not be until Biden dominated in South Carolina that he instantly became the frontrunner. While Warren performed most strongly among progressives, union voters and blue-collar voters, Harris's strongest performance was found in the largely suburban 3rd District (which does not contain a sizable number of union and Hispanic voters that mostly came out for Warren), and in the 4th District that includes North Las Vegas (which includes the historical heart of Southern Nevada's Black populace) and rural areas closer to Reno where Harris has already been familiar due to her being from neighboring California. Polis gets his three delegates each from his at-large showing across the state, as well as from the Reno-based 2nd District and the aforementioned 4th - both of which have a more libertarian-leaning Democratic base vote than the Las Vegas Valley, with the 2nd also being home to one of Tesla's "gigafactory" sites.

Buttigieg, who won three delegates in 2020 including two in the 2nd and one in the 3rd, failed to win any delegates due to his receiving only just over 10 percent of the vote. In a press statement released shortly after conceding the caucuses, Buttigieg pointed to "highly charged caucuses that are composed of small-minded ideologues who think the way to the White House is to mobilize the Trump playbook of partisan demagoguery", and argued that upcoming primaries, primarily on Super Tuesday as well as South Carolina's open primary, will be a far greater indicator of where the Democratic Party is headed in 2024. Polis, meanwhile, touted his success in Nevada using highly technocratic language "the only way to stop Donald Trump 2.0 from entering through a backdoor like a virus is to elect a President 1.0 who will do so much for the American people that you won't even need a revised version." Cooper and Klobuchar did not focus their efforts on Nevada, with the former preferring instead to focus on South Carolina's upcoming primary where 55 pledged delegates will be handed out while the latter has fixated on a strong showing in Iowa and its 40 pledged delegates. Gina Raimondo, did not release much in the way of press following a weak performance in Nevada, other than a tweet saying "Thank you, Nevada!", but conciliatory social media posts from her campaign staff paint a different picture.

[SaintStan86]

January 20, 2024
RAIMONDO DROPS OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE, ENDORSES KAMALA HARRIS
Following a poor performance in the Nevada caucuses, former Commerce Secretary and Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo announced she was dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. A once unpopular Governor who later drew praise for her handling of COVID-19 in her state and eventually parlayed that and past business connections into her ascendance to Secretary of Commerce in the Biden administration, Raimondo attempted to bring about a more business-friendly center-left approach to governance in the Democratic primary. However, with Vice President Kamala Harris dominating the vote among center-left white liberals and African Americans - two of the most critical Democratic voter blocs, as well as criticism of her pre-COVID gubernatorial tenure and her department's handling of the supply chain crisis leading to scrutiny from conservative talk and television circles, Raimondo struggled to gain traction and had largely become known as the "WTF" candidate by the time the Nevada caucuses came around, as in "Why the f*** is Gina Raimondo still in the race?"

Following her announcement that she was suspending her campaign, Raimondo threw her endorsement to Harris, tweeting "Honored to stand with @KamalaHarris as we fight #ForThePeople and finish the tremendous work that @JoeBiden started!". In accepting the endorsement, Harris thanked Raimondo for "both being a foot soldier in President Biden's historic administration and for running a great campaign that highlighted important issues that affect everyday Americans from women's healthcare to small business recovery". With Raimondo out of the race, the race is down to six Democrats with Harris and Sen. Elizabeth Warren thought of as the frontrunners in the race and most of the momentum being on the side of the latter. Before Raimondo endorsed Harris, Warren also praised the former Rhode Island Governor, "Gina Raimondo served the people of Rhode Island with dignity and worked to help small businesses recover from a pandemic that greatly affected them more than anyone else. I am grateful to have known her a little better in this campaign, and wish her the best of luck in the future".

January 21, 2024
NBC ANNOUNCES FIELDS FOR UPCOMING DEBATES ON CABLE CHANNELS
On Sunday's edition of Meet the Press, anchor Chuck Todd announced the upcoming fields for two upcoming presidential debates that will air primarily on its sister cable channels MSNBC and CNBC. The first of these two, a Democratic debate to be broadcast Wednesday night on MSNBC from the North Charleston Performing Arts Center in North Charleston, S.C., will feature the six remaining Democratic candidates who have all qualified for the debate as they qualify either with at least 5 percent of the vote in national polling or 5 percent of the vote in South Carolina polling. The moderators will be NBC News Senior Washington Correspondent Hallie Jackson, liberal MSNBC host Joy Reid, Today host Craig Melvin (who himself anchored at WIS-TV up the road in Columbia before coming to NBC) and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joe Cunningham, who once represented much of the surrounding area in his one term in Congress in 2018.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 24TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (MSNBC @ North Charleston, SC)
Candidate	Avg. (1/21)	Poll A (1/20)	Poll B (1/15)	Poll C (1/11)	Poll D (1/10)	Poll E (1/8)
PARTICIPATING
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	30.2	28	31	29	33	30
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	25.0	25	28	25	22	25
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	11.8	12	10	12	13	12
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	7.0	6	8	8	7	6
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	6.2	8	6	6	5	6
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	6.2	7	5	7	7	5
NOT PARTICIPATING
Former Sec. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)	3.2	3	3	3	4	3

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 24TH DEMOCRATIC DEBATE

5. Polis

3. Buttigieg

1. Harris

2. Warren

4. Cooper

6. Klobuchar

Even though North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is the only candidate other than Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg to get more than 10 percent in the Palmetto State's "first in the South" primary polling, Jared Polis and Amy Klobuchar also qualify due to their national polling on average being above 5 percent. The debate is seen as the final opportunity for the six remaining Democrats to introduce themselves to South Carolina voters before the pivotal "first in the South" primary, which like the Nevada caucuses were also bumped up to before the traditional Iowa caucuses in part due to South Carolina's sizable Black Democratic electorate. Most of the pressure is reported to be on Buttigieg, who must answer to criticism that he is "not ready for primetime" after his disappointing performance in Nevada yesterday. Raimondo, who dropped out shortly after the Nevada caucuses concluded, was never much of a factor, and would have been barred from participating in Wednesday's night debate due to her weak national performance.

During the second half of Meet the Press, Todd also announced the field for Friday night's Republican debate at the Aronoff Center in Cincinnati, Ohio, which will be broadcast on CNBC and will be moderated by four CNBC personalities, led by former Fox News anchor Shepard Smith (who anchors The News with Shepard Smith on the network), along with Squawk Box anchor Becky Quick, on-air editor Rick Santelli (who famously played an informal role in the rise of the Tea Party movement during the Obama presidency), and the network's White House correspondent, Kayla Tausche. They will also be joined by former Speaker of the House John Boehner, who represented suburbs of the Cincinnati area during his generation-long stint as the Congressman for Ohio's 8th District. The debate will also be simulcast on Telemundo, dubbed in Spanish for its audience with wraparound segments hosted by NBC News/Telemundo anchor José Díaz-Balart. For the Republicans, CNBC has set a threshold of at least four polls with 4 percent of the vote, which in this case reduces the participation level to eight of the 12 Republican candidates.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 26TH REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CNBC @ Cincinnati, OH)
Candidate	Avg. (1/21)	Poll A (1/20)	Poll B (1/18)	Poll C (1/16)	Poll D (1/13)	Poll E (1/12)
PARTICIPATING
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	19.8	20	22	20	18	19
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	13.8	13	14	12	16	14
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	13.2	14	14	13	13	12
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	11.8	12	11	11	13	12
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	7.8	7	9	10	7	6
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	7.0	7	8	9	9	8
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	4.0	4	3	4	4	5
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.8	4	4	4	4	3
NOT PARTICIPATING
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	3.8	4	3	5	4	3
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.6	4	3	4	3	4
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	2.2	2	1	3	3	2
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	1.6	2	1	1	2	2

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 26TH REPUBLICAN DEBATE

7. Cotton

5. Pompeo

3. Pence

1. DeSantis

2. Haley

4. Cruz

6. Sasse

8. Christie

DeSantis retains his leading position, but there is a somewhat noticeable shift as Haley is second next to DeSantis on the stage. The other candidates more or less remain in similar positioning. Sen. Marco Rubio, despite being tied with Christie on the national average, only polls at least 4 percent in three of five polls, as does former Gov. Larry Hogan who trails slightly behind. Candace Owens and Mike Lindell continue to underperform, with Owens announcing that she will be hosting a town hall meeting on Twitch during the CNBC debate ("Who even watches CNBC after the bell closes on Friday? Especially when ABC is airing a new episode of Shark Tank at the same time?"). Lindell, meanwhile, is rumored to be exploring a potential third-party candidacy, but in the meantime remains in the GOP primary despite his obviously weak polling numbers.

January 23, 2024
ERNST, REYNOLDS ENDORSE NIKKI HALEY; SASSE GETS REGISTER ENDORSEMENT
On Tuesday, two of the most prominent female Republican politicians in the nation made a major endorsement in the presidential race, endorsing former Ambassador Nikki Haley for the Republican presidential nomination. In endorsing Haley, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds pointed to Haley's "tremendous record of standing up for American values and American interests as our Ambassador to the United Nations", and also stated that "now is the time to elect a proven leader who more than fits the glass slipper and shatters that ceiling, and who unlike Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren will actually work to stand for America!" Hours later, Haley also received the endorsement of Sen. Joni Ernst, who in 2014 became the first female combat veteran to serve in the U.S. Senate. "I have known Ambassador Haley for years, and her leadership as Governor of South Carolina, as Ambassador to the United Nations, and as a trailblazing advocate for conservative women across America and globally is what sets her apart from her opponents".

Ernst and Reynolds were both endorsed by Haley in their 2020 and 2022 reelection bids, leading many to speculate that Haley is merely "returning the favor", a claim that Haley's campaign team is quick to deny. "I am honored to be endorsed by two of America's leading conservative women, who both understand the importance of strong leadership at home and decisive leadership in a dangerous world where enemies seek to undermine our freedoms - and our pride as a country", said Haley in the announcement.

Meanwhile, Sen. Ben Sasse earned a key endorsement from the Des Moines Register, who pointed to Sasse's record as "a steady conservative voice in an era of demagogues and grandstanders", pointing to his calm demeanor during the Supreme Court hearings for Ketanji Brown Jackson as well as what the newspaper described as "a clear record of principles over politics, even if it costs him a seat at the Republican 'in crowd' dinner table". The paper also cited Sasse's direct willingness to break with former President Donald Trump, and called his move to convict the former President during Trump's second impeachment trial "an act of courage that deserves more respect from the American people than he's been given". While Sasse conveniently leaves out the parts referring to the second impeachment trial (which dealt with Trump's role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the United States Capitol) in a statement announcing the paper's endorsement, he goes on to call the endorsement "a clear sign that now, more than ever, is the time for steady conservative leadership that inspires a new generation of Americans and strengthens the future for our children and grandchildren". Critics view the endorsement with yawns, with Sen. Ted Cruz pointing out "Who in the Republican caucuses really takes the Des Moines Register seriously? Last I checked, none of their endorsements went on to win the Iowa caucuses."

January 24, 2024
VERMONT GOV. PHIL SCOTT WILL SEEK REELECTION; FORGO U.S. SENATE RUN
After months of speculation and draft movements, popular moderate Republican Gov. Phil Scott announced he will seek reelection to a fifth term as Governor of Vermont and will not run for the open Senate seat of outgoing independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. In a statement, Scott proclaimed "As Governor of Vermont, I have strived to serve as a Governor that all Vermonters can be proud of, and in the last eight years I have accomplished just that. For that reason, I will be seeking reelection for another two-year term." Scott noted that while he was flattered to have been plodded by the NRSC and national Republicans into running for the open seat, which had never before been represented by a Democrat (Republican-turned-Independent Jim Jeffords held the seat until his 2006 retirement paved the way for Sanders), he also pointed out that "the Senate is becoming nothing more than Kabuki theater for those who wish to not turn the Capitol into a partisan football where our shared goals can sometimes be lost in a haze of cable news madness".

Nonetheless, Scott vowed to find a credible Republican candidate to challenge the winner of an auspicious Democratic primary field whose winner is assumed to be "the frontrunner" for the open seat. Two Democrats, former State Senate Majority Leader Becca Balint and state Attorney General T.J. Donovan, have already filed paperwork to run for Sanders' seat, with more Democrats expected to enter the race in the coming weeks and months. Rumors of a potential third-party candidacy from Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman as a candidate for the Vermont Progressive Party have also bubbled recently, with some even speculating that Scott would have benefited from such a split between Democrats and Progressives in the general election. Currently, the race is viewed as a Democratic "pickup", though this is essentially a "pickup in name only" as Sanders has caucused with the Democrats during his entire congressional career (dating back to his first election as the state's lone U.S. Rep. in 1990) and even ran twice for the Democratic presidential nomination - coming in second both times to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

[SaintStan86]

Source: Charleston Area Convention & Visitors Bureau Author: Unknown

Interior of the North Charleston Performing Arts Center in North Charleston, S.C., site of the January 24, 2024 Democratic presidential debate.

January 24, 2024
DEMOCRATS MAKE FINAL APPEALS IN LAST DEBATE BEFORE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
In the final debate before Saturday's "first in the South" primary in South Carolina, Democrats made last-minute appeals in a debate that focused on issues of importance to Southern voters as well as African-Americans - a sizable constituency within the Democratic Party, but most especially in South Carolina where they represent a distinct majority of Democratic primary voters and where Vice President Kamala Harris has seen most of her strength in polling. The debate, broadcast nationally on MSNBC from the North Charleston Performing Arts Center north of Charleston, South Carolina, also served as a last-minute opportunity for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren to appeal for second place along with North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who hopes to use his "next door neighbor" status to potentially enter the top tier of Democratic contenders.

In response to a question from moderator and former South Carolina news anchor Craig Melvin, in which Melvin asked about his case as a "moderate alternative with executive experience" to the Democratic electorate, Gov. Cooper chimed in, "I won twice in a state where Donald Trump won twice at the same time, one where it was very common to find Trump signs and mine next to one another. We both believe in the working man. We both believe in making our communities better. And we both believe in solutions that work for everyone. The difference is that unlike Trump, I'm not going to wade into culture politics the way both sides have tried to frame it, and I'm not going to use Twitter to set the world on fire." Cooper's response generated standing applause from the packed audience in the theater. In addition, Cooper also alluded to his endorsement by NBA legend Michael Jordan (who grew up in Wilmington and now owns the NBA's Charlotte Hornets), "I am proud to be the only candidate endorsed by the GOAT himself, Michael Jordan. I have fight in me, a Carolina toughness that exemplifies true grit and compassion".

Meanwhile Harris, who is viewed as the frontrunner in Saturday's primary, alluded to successes within the Biden administration as well as her support for policies popular with core Democratic voters - a $15 minimum wage, the Green New Deal, etc. - to contrast herself with the more moderate Cooper. "If we're going to be serious about winning in November, we need to take a page from the Republicans who used hard principles they believed in - principles that are actually destructive to working families and beneficial to the privileged few - to wrest control away from the people who put their trust in President Biden after four years of awful policies that took us several steps backwards", said Harris. Warren was not amused, "I think it's funny that Kamala Harris and Roy Cooper like to say how they're for the working man and woman in this country. The truth is common sense policies like a living wage, safeguarding consumers from bank failures, Medicare for All - those all started with my first campaign for Senate in 2012. They can only pretend to stand for them and then compromise with Republicans who take millions from corporations who wish to gut these programs while the average American continues to languish. With me, what you see is what you get".

Another topic that came up was military readiness with regards to foreign conflicts. When asked if military involvement in disputed countries such as Ukraine and Iran is necessary to "prevent attacks here at home" by moderator Hallie Jackson, Harris pointed out "the policies carried out by President Biden to put Vladimir Putin and other dictators in their place by the Biden administration have helped to keep us safe", while Pete Buttigieg (who served in the War in Iraq despite protesting against it in his younger years) stated that "there is no need to send mass armies out overseas, especially since many of us campaigned against what George W. Bush did in Iraq...We'll just stick to sending out diplomats and effective negotiating to keep us out of global conflict, while they opine about whether or not LGBTQ+ soldiers can authentically express themselves and serve at the same time".

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis had a simple response, "Just stay out of it. We must remember that opposing the War in Iraq is what sent Barack Obama to the White House the same year I was first elected to Congress. That's what wins at the ballot box. Not starting more wars to appease lobbyists in DC who cut fat checks to the Pentagon while our soldiers and veterans are left with few if any benefits for their service". Harris responded to Polis, "Staying out of a serious conflict is all well and good, but we must remember that Donald Trump himself thinks that our leadership in the world is benign, while he cozies up to dictators and trashes our allies. There is no excuse for not showing leadership in the world, especially since the difference between George W. Bush and Barack Obama on managing the war in Iraq was clear."

Throughout the rest of the debate, many of the same issues and responses from earlier debates came out, but one unique topic that emerged was the importance of Black farmers - a sizable chunk of the electorate in South Carolina - to federal agricultural policy. When asked by moderator Joy Reid if racial equity in agricultural policy should be mandated in future Farm Bills, Sen. Amy Klobuchar responded, "Expanding the food supply of our nation is critical to promoting our nation's rural economies, reducing hunger and homelessness, and leveling the playing field for families who for too long have struggled with empty pantries and freezers. That is going to end under my administration". The candidates also spoke out in support of a woman's right to abortion as part of Obamacare (Harris's proposal), called climate change "the gravest threat to America and the world" (Polis's words), argued that guaranteeing rights to transgendered individuals is a "game changer for business" (Buttigieg's words), and vowed constitutional amendments to overturn the Citizens United decision as well as any "remaining racist and hurtful policies from the Trump administration" (Warren's words).

Overall, the debate received a mixed reception, with some arguing the debate focused too much on benign issues such as foreign policy and too little on issues of importance to Black voters (such as voting rights which became a flashpoint in neighboring Georgia) despite South Carolina having one of the largest Black populations in the country. However, some pointed out that the Congressional Black Caucus Institute had already sponsored a debate in the state last year (broadcast on CBS from Columbia) and applauded MSNBC for more directly addressing other issues of importance to all South Carolinians such as military policy and climate change (given Charleston's large military presence and culture as well as its vulnerability to tidal flooding) and the issue of whatever degree a Democratic President should entangle themselves in foreign conflicts, pointing to Barack Obama's 2008 victory on the heels of strong sentiment against the War in Iraq.

Harris came under fire from anti-war liberals as well as conservatives in general for her foreign policy statements during Wednesday night's debate, with the latter group also remarking that "the Democrats have became - in the span of the last decade - the War Party", per comments from former Trump White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer on his Newsmax program the following night. Later that night on Fox News, Sean Hannity remarked on his show "When even MSDNC is making Kamala Harris look like a poor man's George W. Bush since their ascendance came on the backs of their endless criticism of Bush's handling of the War on Terror, you know very well that the two parties do have large numbers of supporters who are weary of war. The difference is that in one party, the leading candidate is doing the bidding of the same neocons who like Liz Cheney have trashed Donald Trump, trashed conservatives and even trashed George W. Bush, whom at least we should give credit for not wanting to surreptitiously pull us out of Afghanistan the way Cranky Joe did while he was taking his nap".

Source: Cincinnati Arts Association

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Wikipedia user "Mind meal"

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Gage Skidmore

Procter & Gamble Hall at the Aronoff Center in Cincinnati, Ohio, site of the January 26, 2024 Republican presidential debate, plus a picture of former House Speaker John Boehner.

January 26, 2024
REPUBLICANS SQUARE OFF IN CINCINNATI WITH FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER AS HOST
On Friday night, eight of the top Republican presidential hopefuls sounded off in their latest debate at the Procter & Gamble Hall inside the Aronoff Center in Cincinnati, broadcast nationally on CNBC with four of their top anchors serving as moderators alongside former House Speaker John Boehner, who helped lead the GOP to rousing success in the 2010 midterm elections and is a lifelong resident of the Cincinnati area. Boehner himself introduced the candidates and opened, "I am honored to be here tonight as the former Speaker of the House, who rose from modest circumstances to help lead Republicans to a majority in the House under Barack Obama and helped to clot the damage that Obama was doing, which I'm certain is worse now with a shell of Joe Biden at the helm". Continuing while struggling to choke back tears (a famous gesture often seen during his tenure as Speaker), Boehner remarked "I am sorry to see how far he has fallen, but with the grace of God the next President of the United States of America will come from this beautiful stage here in Cincinnati to get us back to where we need to be".

Other than a few minor crying spells from Boehner, the debate was mostly full of a few tense moments plus a technical issue with Sen. Ted Cruz's microphone early in the debate. During an answer to a question from moderator Rick Santelli, who during a live report for CNBC in 2009 famously called for a "Tea Party" in the midst of bailouts from Congress and former President Barack Obama, about whether or not the 2024 presidential election amounts to the "return of the Tea Party movement"? Cruz's mic was first inoperable before a loud bang from it finally woke it up, but not without the Senator uttering "f*** whoever is running this show". Santelli responded, "Are you OK, Senator?", to which Cruz responded, "Well, finally I am. I'm just frustrated with why it is always when CNBC does a debate that I get shafted?" After a brief exchange, Cruz finally answered Santelli's question, "Yes, very much so. It paved the way for Donald Trump, and it's going to pave the way for a new President who will finish the job and undo the damage that President Biden has caused this country to suffer". He also vowed to be steadfast in "appointing constitutional judges from the district courts to the Supreme Court" and pointed out, "If we let Biden's handpicked successor fill Clarence Thomas's and Samuel Alito's seats, our country is done, it's over. We've surrendered to China."

Meanwhile, the debate (which focused on business and fiscal issues given its host is the leading cable business news network) also saw a battle between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over whether future health crises similar to COVID-19 would necessitate the sort of lockdowns early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Answering a question from moderator Becky Quick if Christie would have governed more like his blue state GOP counterparts such as former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (who was not invited to this debate and was more supportive of lockdowns and mask mandates) or more like DeSantis (who famously shunned such mandates save for a short-lived lockdown in April 2020), Christie pointed to both examples. "On the one hand, I would have viewed a lockdown as a temporary first step to try to get COVID under control, but on the other hand I would not have closed down gyms and restaurants who are capable of taking care of their customers without needing my successor to force a heavy hand on them", Christie remarked while also criticizing DeSantis for "allowing Spring Break to spiral out of control at the worst possible time while our state shut it down" and spoke of his own struggles with COVID (which he contracted while in close contact with then-President Donald Trump who himself tested positive and like Christie had to be hospitalized) during the beginning of the winter 2020 wave.

Not surprisingly, DeSantis was not impressed. "I'm very grateful you're alive, Governor, and I commend you for your frank honesty in describing your own struggle with this horrible virus. But I can bet you if you were Governor, you would have fallen right in line with Gov. Hogan, with Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, and would have been happy to shut things down like most of the Democrats did their states including yours. If I were Governor of New Jersey, I wouldn't be shutting my residents in, and in fact I'd be convincing New Yorkers and people from Connecticut to come to New Jersey instead". Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also responded, "What's not being said is that while we're debating about what would have been done differently about COVID, keep in mind that the CCP is still acting like they're the big innocent when really they're the most guilty party in all this COVID hysteria", and as President would call for American companies to withdraw operations from China ASAP while funding dissident Chinese citizens and those from breakaway regions like Hong Kong and Taiwan who are fighting Communism in their country.

Another flashpoint came in response to the recent barrage of mudslinging ads in Iowa between former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ben Sasse, who are both battling for first place in the Hawkeye State with Nikki Haley rising after her big endorsements from Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst. Pence remarked, "While I was a freedom fighter for Donald Trump as his closest companion in the White House, working to Make America Great Again and Keep America Great at the same time, Ben Sasse was being a tattletale treating Donald Trump as if he were R. Kelly," referring to the controversial musician who is now a convicted felon serving a prison sentence for sexually abusing young women including underage ones. Sasse was also unimpressed, "Once again, Mr. Vice President, you're choosing to pick the wrong fight. You could have boldly broken away from Trump by saying publicly you were done after January 6th, but every time you try to you go running back to Tucker Carlson like he's Daddy Warbucks. We need a President that our allies, our enemies and our talking heads can respect and appreciate, not belittle around while our next President is playing patty cake with Hunter Biden, as Tucker did asking him for help getting his kids into an elite private school".

The national debt also became a hot topic during the two-hour debate. When asked by Boehner if the rising deficit is going to finally be brought down to a surplus under her watch, former Ambassador Haley remarked, "Our deficit is a grave threat to our economic security, our national security, our standing in the world. Hell, if we continue to put America in the position we're in, my kids will be lucky to even get Social Security, and they won't be able to even afford those adult diapers that look like the diapers I put them in as kids, which I'm sure in this hyper-weird, hyper-individualized world might be all the rage with them in the future," to loud chuckles and scorn from the audience and candidates. Cruz remarked, "Nikki Haley. Rated NC-17. Only available after dark at some weird hipster bar in Brooklyn", while DeSantis also opined, "I know you're trying to be fun with words and read into our very individualized millennial consumer, but I shouldn't have to resort to the nuclear option", which when asked by Santelli was a complete shutdown of Walt Disney World (which itself was still lingering with controversy from its opposition of DeSantis's anti-LGBT education bill that led to Disney being accused of "coddling sex offenders and child predators", despite Disney having recently parted ways with its controversial CEO after a recent corporate shakeup).

Sen. Tom Cotton also struck a bitter chord during the debate when asked by moderator Shepard Smith if a conservative case for the Fairness Doctrine existed. In response, Cotton remarked, "Getting rid of the Fairness Doctrine was a godsend at a time when there were few voices and none conservatives trusted. Now those same conservative voices are being silenced by woke mobs and woke capital, and I think some rollback of the Fairness Doctrine repeal may be necessary to guarantee conservatives a level playing field". DeSantis boldly rejected Cotton's suggestion, "At the end of the day, louder conservative speech - even if relegated to alternate platforms and obscure late-night TV informercials - may be better for the future of our country and our political discourse versus going back to the dark ages that Sen. Cotton is so willing to embrace. Which is exactly what the Democrats want". Cotton also criticized Haley for being "too soft on China", remarking "China is our biggest enemy and a bigger threat to peace in the world than Russia or any country in the Middle East that wants to obliterate Israel. And those, my friends, are really big threats already", with Haley responding by comparing her "executive experience confronting enemies of the CCP who are also themselves allies of Hamas and the PLO to Sen. Cotton's comparable lack of executive leadership on foreign policy".

In the last question of the night, CNBC White House correspondent and moderator Kayla Tausche also asked the eight candidates about whether or not they would accept or question the results if they were to lose to the Democrat, with all of the candidates vowing to accept the results depending on "whatever level of voter fraud does exist", per DeSantis's words. Pence remarked, "If I were to win the GOP nomination and lose to Vice President Harris or whoever the Democrat nominee is, I would accept the results, but also encourage Republicans to fight for election reform at the same time", with Cruz responding "There's nothing wrong with accepting the results Vice President, but if there was voter fraud on the level of what was experienced with Donald Trump four years ago, I wouldn't be afraid to punt the ball and do a recount without the questionable ballots". Overall, the debate was positively received, with DeSantis's closing line being the most heartfelt moment, "Disagreements aside, I am very sad that Governor Hogan is not here with us in Cincinnati, when he could be here with us tonight. He is a good man, fought cancer, fought against his state's corrupt Democrat regime. I hope he's with us next Wednesday night in Norfolk (where the Republicans are set to have another debate next week)", generating strong applause with Boehner struggling to fight back tears himself.

[SaintStan86]

January 27, 2024
VOTING UNDERWAY IN SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY WITH HEAVY TURNOUT, GLITCHED MACHINES REPORTED ACROSS STATE
Voting began early Saturday morning in South Carolina's "first in the South" Democratic primary, which this year has been moved up to before the Iowa caucuses per Democrats' wish to take advantage of voter appeal amongst African Americans - long a key constituency of the Democratic Party and which make up a majority of South Carolina's Democratic voters. With turnout at unprecedented levels in all parts of the state from the Charleston area to the Upstate to around the state capital of Columbia, long lines and reports of glitches have been documented throughout the day including a water main break at one polling place in the West Ashley section of Charleston - a critical voting bloc for the Democrats in that area - that resulted in the polls being closed for nearly two hours. Additionally, requests for paper ballots at some polling places in York County, home to suburbs of Charlotte, North Carolina, were denied after those precincts ran out of paper ballots and forced voters to use strictly electronic devices only.

The primary is seen as a huge test for three of the six remaining Democrats in the presidential race. For frontrunner Kamala Harris, it's not a matter of if the current Vice President is capable of winning South Carolina (which is expected given her large lead in the state) but rather one of whether or not Harris can cross 50 percent and shut out her rivals. For Elizabeth Warren, it's a matter of whether or not the Massachusetts U.S. Senator's appeals to progressives and more activist Black voters will make a difference in the primary. And for Gov. Roy Cooper of neighboring North Carolina, it's a key test of both his appeal to more moderate southern Democrats as well as his support from parts of the state that also factor significantly in his own state, particularly the Charlotte and Greenville areas where Western North Carolina politicians already get considerable exposure. Exit polls have shown Harris crossing the 50 percent mark with Black voters, while amongst White Democrats it's a free-for-all depending on what region of the state is in question. 55 pledged delegates will be handed out tonight, with 36 of those to be handed out by congressional district.

SOUTH CAROLINA
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Results of Primary:
Kamala Harris - 42.14 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 22.10 perecent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 19.11 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 9.48 percent
Amy Klobuchar - 3.77 percent
Jared Polis - 2.84 percent
Gina Raimondo - 0.36 percent
(Remaining 0.2 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Charleston suburbs, Beaufort & Hilton Head Island (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD2/Columbia suburbs & Aiken (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Roy Cooper 1
CD3/Anderson, Greenwood & Clemson (3 delegates):
Roy Cooper 1, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD4/Greenville & Spartanburg (4 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD5/Rock Hill, Union & Columbia exurbs (5 delegates):
Roy Cooper 3, Kamala Harris 2
CD6/Columbia, Charleston & Orangeburg - incl. majority Black areas (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 5, Elizabeth Warren 2, Roy Cooper 1
CD7/Myrtle Beach & Florence (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Roy Cooper 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (7 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Roy Cooper 2
At-Large Delegates (12 delegates):
Kamala Harris 6, Elizabeth Warren 3, Roy Cooper 3

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 42 delegates
Elizabeth Warren - 31 delegates
Roy Cooper - 15 delegates
Jared Polis - 3 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 0 delegates
Amy Klobuchar - 0 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

While Harris's first place showing in South Carolina was expected, the second place showing diverged depending on the statewide percentages and individual results by congressional district. Both Cooper and Warren received the same amount of PLEO and at-large delegates, but congressional districts told a different story. Warren's strongest performance was in the Charleston and Columbia areas, home to liberal transplants from northern states, more liberal retirees and white liberals working for government and academic institutions - all groups that along with more progressive Black voters were drawn to Warren's staunch liberal power play. Harris, however, dominated among African-American voters in general, winning more than 55 percent of the Black vote in the primary and dominating in the plurality Black 6th District, whose longtime incumbent Congressman Jim Clyburn has endorsed Harris. Cooper also won at least one delegate in every congressional district, even placing first in two districts - a plurality in the mostly White and rural 3rd west of Greenville and north of Aiken and a slight majority in the 5th District, which is centered on the South Carolina suburbs of Charlotte where Cooper has been a constant TV presence since his days as North Carolina's Attorney General. Warren, by contrast, only won delegates in five of South Carolina's congressional districts - only winning more than one in the Charleston-based 1st (3 delegates) and the Columbia-based plurality Black 6th (2 delegates), and was shut out of the suburban Columbia-based 2nd and the aforementioned 5th.

Pete Buttigieg's weak performance across the state continues to give his campaign pause, as many pundits begin to predict that the time for "Mayor Pete" has come and gone. On CNN, when asked by Wolf Blitzer if Buttigieg is done as a presidential candidate, Democratic strategist and pundit Paul Begala remarks, "Most certainly his numbers in Nevada and South Carolina are not encouraging, but it's not necessarily over yet because we haven't gotten to the Midwest where he is expected to perform strongly". Indeed, recent polls have Buttigieg performing competitively with Harris and Warren in Iowa and New Hampshire, with Buttigieg's performance being comparatively worse in western states (where Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is performing above average) and in southern states (which have large Black Democratic voter bases which favor Harris as well as more moderate Democrats who give a sizable amount of support to Cooper in recent polls). While Sen. Amy Klobuchar is performing strongly in Minnesota, her performance is comparatively weaker versus Harris, Warren and Buttigieg, the latter of whom has stronger support in his home state than Klobuchar does.

Fortunately, Buttigieg and Klobuchar see a chance to recoup lost ground the coming week in the Midwest. With South Carolina's primary in the books, the candidates are prepared to head to St. Louis, where the Democrats are scheduled to debate at Lindenwood University in the suburb of St. Charles, Missouri on Tuesday night, followed by what is expected to be an intensive round of barnstorming, endorsement seeking and searching for last-minute votes before February 5th's critically important Iowa caucuses.

[SaintStan86]

January 28, 2024
CNN ANNOUNCES LINEUPS FOR THIS WEEK'S FINAL DEBATES BEFORE IOWA
On Sunday's edition of CNN's State of the Union, host Jake Tapper announced the field for both of the network's upcoming debates this week, starting with the Democratic debate to be broadcast Tuesday night from the J. Scheidegger Center for the Arts, located on the campus of Lindenwood University in St. Charles, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis. The debate will be moderated by CNN primetime anchor Don Lemon (who previously worked as an anchor and investigative reporter in St. Louis), special correspondent Chris Wallace, former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt (who served as House Majority Leader for three terms from 1989-1995 and House Minority Leader for another four from 1995-2003 as a Congressman representing southern parts of St. Louis and its suburbs) and St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board editor Tod Robberson. To qualify for the debate, the DNC has set a bar of at least a national average of 5 percent, meaning that all six of the notable remaining candidates have qualified to participate in the debate. Given Gephardt's status as a moderate Democrat and the suburban location of the venue, as well as CNN's long-held perception of being an "establishment Democrat mouthpiece", it is widely expected that issues of importance to suburban Democratic voters will likely be addressed in this debate.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 30TH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CNN @ St. Charles, MO)
Candidate	Avg. (1/28)	Poll A (1/27)	Poll B (1/23)	Poll C (1/21)	Poll D (1/18)	Poll E (1/15)
PARTICIPATING
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)	31.6	33	34	29	32	30
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)	26.0	27	29	25	26	23
Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)	11.4	12	10	13	10	12
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO)	7.4	7	8	8	6	8
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)	7.2	9	7	6	7	7
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	5.8	5	5	6	6	7

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 30TH DEMOCRATIC DEBATE

5. Cooper

3. Buttigieg

1. Harris

2. Warren

4. Polis

6. Klobuchar

Since the Nevada caucuses, Gov. Polis is now neck-and-neck with Gov. Cooper for fourth place amongst the Democrats following his strong performance in Nevada, where Polis won three delegates on the strength of endorsements from Democratic iconoclast Tulsi Gabbard and entrepreneur Elon Musk - as well as Polis's status as an uber-libertarian, highly technocratic Western Democrat. However, it is widely expected that Cooper will take back fourth place following his performance in South Carolina last night (albeit on the caveat that South Carolina happens to be his next door neighbor). The suspension of Gina Raimondo's campaign has enabled Harris to gain some support in the polls, as has Warren following both her plural first place finish in Nevada and the endorsements of important labor unions. Buttigieg and Klobuchar never gained much out of both states, but it is widely expected that both will pick up support in the Midwest with Iowa coming up on February 5th.

Shortly after announcing the Democratic debate field on State of the Union, Tapper also announced the field for Wednesday night's Republican debate - which like the previous night's Democratic debate will also be the last debate before Iowa and will also be co-hosted with the conservative-oriented Salem Media radio network. Scheduled to take place Wednesday night from Chrysler Hall in Norfolk, Virginia with Gov. Glenn Youngkin (a likely contender for the Republican nominee's eventual running mate) confirmed to be in attendance as the introductory host of the debate, the debate will feature veteran CNN correspondent Wolf Blitzer and Salem radio host and British-born Hungarian-American former Trump advisor Sebastian Gorka, considered a prominent nationalist voice popular with hardline Trump supporters, as moderators in addition to Tapper and Wallace. Given Norfolk's large military presence (including being the North American headquarters city for NATO) and the region's historical significance to America (many of the first communities in what eventually became the United States were settled within the Hampton Roads area), as well as the large depth of experience on foreign affairs, military policy and international relations between the moderators, it is widely expected that foreign policy and matters relating to national security and terrorism will be addressed in the debate.

However, the selection of moderators - all White men - has generated some controversy from some who lamented at the lack of minority and female moderators among the group, with one pundit claiming "what CNN is basically communicating to the world is that only old White men vote Republican, which is not necessarily true". MSNBC anchor Joy Reid also recently stirred controversy with her response on Twitter in which she stated "What @CNN should be doing is have at least one minority moderator for all their debates - Democratic or Republican - and no being born in Germany to Holocaust survivors doesn't count" (referring to the German-born Blitzer whose parents survived the Holocaust), sparking outrage from conservative and Jewish advocacy groups who accused Reid of anti-semitism; Reid later apologized for her comments on her MSNBC show the following Monday. Many pundits have also called the moderator lineup "a true grab bag" given Tapper and Blitzer's prominence at a network much-hated by Trump supporters, Wallace's unpopularity with said group dating back to his Fox News days, and Gorka's outspoken nationalist views often a lightning rod for controversy; some even argue that Gorka's selection as a moderator for a debate in the North American headquarters city of NATO is inappropriate, with Washington Post columnist Max Boot calling CNN's selection of Gorka "an outright pander to those who wish to throw democracy under the bus". For this debate, the RNC will be requiring candidates to have three out of five qualifying polls with at least 5 percent in order to participate. If they don't qualify based on national polling, the candidates must post a weighted average of at least 7 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

PARTICIPANTS FOR THE JANUARY 31ST REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE (CNN @ Norfolk, VA)
Candidate	Avg. (1/28)	Poll A (1/26)	Poll B (1/24)	Poll C (1/22)	Poll D (1/18)	Poll E (1/15)	IA Avg.	NH Avg.
PARTICIPATING (QUALIFIED NATIONALLY)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)	19.2	21	19	19	21	16	12	16
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)	14.8	15	16	16	14	13	18	12
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC)	13.0	13	13	15	12	12	15	18
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)	9.2	8	10	8	9	11	9	8
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)	8.8	9	9	8	8	10	17	8
Fmr. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)	8.2	8	7	7	9	10	7	6
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)	4.8	5	4	5	4	6	3	5
PARTICIPATING (QUALIFIED DUE TO IA/NH)
Fmr. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)	3.8	5	3	4	4	3	3	8
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	3.8	4	4	3	5	3	7	2
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)	3.6	3	3	4	3	5	2	7
NOT PARTICIPATING
Commentator Candace Owens (R-TN)	3.0	2	3	4	3	3	1	0
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN)	1.4	2	1	2	1	1	3	1

STAGE ORDER OF CANDIDATES FOR JANUARY 31ST REPUBLICAN DEBATE

9. Cotton

7. Rubio

5. Sasse

3. Haley

1. DeSantis

2. Pence

4. Cruz

6. Pompeo

8. Hogan

10. Christie

While DeSantis continues to lead nationally by nearly four and a half points, he has fallen to fourth in Iowa following Haley's endorsements by that state's respective Governor and junior U.S. Senator, Kim Reynolds and Joni Ernst. Despite long-running appeals by Republicans to "Middle America" on culture war politics and Trump's economic populist message, no such Republican who went on to be elected to the White House has been elected from either the Midwest or the Great Plains since Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 for his second term, and even then Eisenhower benefited from extraordinary circumstances given his prominent role in World War II (Despite being from the Midwest, Gerald Ford was never elected President, having lost in 1976 to Jimmy Carter). Many pundits argue that DeSantis's "coastal conservative" vibe, while particularly popular with "Reagan conservatives" and Fox News loyalists, may be somewhat off-putting to more populist-leaning Midwestern voters, though DeSantis has attempted to soften such criticism by taking tougher stances on tariffs relating to China while loosening tariffs for European countries "who align with Western values" such as Germany and the UK. A DeSantis spox also pointed out that a large portion of what would have been DeSantis votes are instead going to Sasse, and the campaign has since responded by comparing DeSantis's strong ties to Trump to Sasse's indifference - even though Sasse still continues to perform well in Iowa, especially west of Des Moines where he is frequently on the news in the Omaha (Council Bluffs) and Sioux City TV markets.

Meanwhile, Cruz's numbers have somewhat declined in the wake of his controversial defense of waterboarding during the Chicago debate as well as a poorly received ad in which Cruz equated executives at the Walt Disney Company and fans of Disney content to "funding the Taliban". Most of those who have bailed on Cruz have switched their votes to Pence, as the number of undecideds in the Hawkeye State have now dropped to a miniscule three percent. Sasse, along with Pompeo, also continue to perform well in polling with the former nearly tied with Pence in Iowa. The only other Republican to qualify based on national polling is Rubio, who also managed to pick up some votes from Cruz and managed to cross five percent in three of five polls and will be returning to the debate stage after being barred from the Cincinnati debate last Friday. Cotton's criticism for his outspoken indifference on marijuana has caused him to not qualify based on national polling, but otherwise his sizable showing in Iowa polls has enabled him to qualify, as has Christie and Hogan due to their decent showings in New Hampshire. Owens continues to not qualify despite polling above average in South Carolina and other states where Black conservatives are an emerging element of the Republican electorate, while Lindell released a statement announcing that "the Monday after next in Iowa will mark the beginning of something big that I am looking forward to sharing with all of America", with some indicating the possibility that Lindell could potentially convert his lackluster Republican candidacy into a third-party spoiler bid.

[SaintStan86]

Do keep in mind that recent reports have emerged that President Biden has informed former President Obama that he will run again in 2024. This does NOT change the trajectory nor the future of this TL, and even if Biden were to run again, he would still potentially be vulnerable given that some Democrats would like to see him replaced on the ballot, even if the alternative isn't necessarily going to win a general election (Kamala Harris, for instance, is seen as performing worse than Biden in recent polls against potential GOP opponents). There are also many, of course, who would like to see Donald Trump run again, and it's important to note that Trump is performing better in trial polls against Biden post-presidency than when he was President, though there still remains the threat that Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, etc. will take him out in the Republican primary. A Trump-Biden rematch is certainly a worst kept secret, but IMHO a clean break with both "grumpy old men" would probably be the best course of action for this country.

As far as any potential future changes in this world, be it a completely separate Donbas and Crimea formed into a new "Putinstan" or something like that, completely independent Chinese enclaves who finally give Xi a big fat middle finger (Hong Kong, Taiwan (aka "Chinese Taipei"), Macau), or a Venezuela or Cuba that finally throws its Communist/Socialist regimes under the bus is largely beyond the scope of this TL, but they will be key foreign policy issues not counting the various Middle East ongoings that have been constant since well before Jesus was born. The continued reclamation of a decent amount of suburban votes for the GOP, combined with the maximum retaining of Trump's blue-collar core, the shift of the neocon/"warmonger" elites towards the Democrats and an emerging hard-left Democratic base are also present in this TL, as we have seen so far, but they are somewhat germane to the real-life situation to where these possibilities - should they happen - are in fact unsurprising.

The parting shot is that this TL has progressed so far to where we are now in the primary voting stages, and for me personally the hardest part - but most rewarding - has been learning about the math when it comes to delegates. I have for the most part stuck to the pledged delegates on the Democratic side since those are more important IMHO than the automatic delegates who are elected officials and largely vote their conscience (and most of them in this TL are likely supporting Kamala Harris anyway, meaning that Elizabeth Warren will have to really connect with the Democratic grassroots the way Barack Obama did in overcoming Hillary Clinton's large raft of superdelegates). For the Republican side, it's really no biggie as virtually everyone is pledged to the winners and they will all be supporting the presumptive nominee anyway, barring a potential contested convention that might still happen depending on whether or not Trump's inevitable endorsement really does resonate with voters in this TL.

Lastly, I shall mention that I am now referring to Chris Wallace as a special correspondent given that CNN+ IRL really has hit rock bottom. With AT&T's cable holdings about to be morphed into Warner Bros. Discovery, there's a very good chance that CNN's streaming content is going to be morphed into Discovery+, which is certainly a far greater value and far less a punchline a la Howard Stern. There's also uncertainty as well with NewsNation, the former WGN-TV superstation feed which has had its fair share of on-air talent turnover since its launch during the early stages of the pandemic; its primetime anchor Joe Donlon who was previously WGN-TV's top anchor since he replaced Mark Suppelsa has since left the network and is now at WBBM-TV, the CBS O&O that once had the venerable Bill Kurtis and Walter Jacobson doing the news. However, Nexstar (which owns NewsNation) has a large base of local stations across the country thanks to never-ending FCC deregulation, and the company is certainly very Wall Street-focused to where they are willing to find efficiencies (e.g. selling off news helicopters, running morning advertorial shows, etc.), much like the infamous Sinclair Broadcast Group. This, combined with their partial share in Food Network (which is largely owned by Warner Bros. Discovery now but is linked to Scripps), likely means that NewsNation will certainly stick around by 2024 even if it is barely profitable.

Going forward, I look forward to sharing more with you in this TL. That's it!

[SaintStan86]

Source: Wikimedia Commons
Author: Wikipedia user "Bhockey10"
The J. Scheidegger Center for the Arts on the campus of Lindenwood University in St. Charles, Missouri, site of the January 30, 2024 Democratic presidential debate.

January 30, 2024
DEMOCRATS MEET IN (OR RATHER, NEAR) ST. LOUIS FOR FINAL DEBATE BEFORE IOWA
On Tuesday night, Democrats gathered at Lindenwood University's J. Scheidegger Center for the Arts in the St. Louis suburb of St. Charles, Missouri to make a final pitch to voters before the upcoming Iowa caucuses. The packed audience of over 1,000 Democrats and their guests, along with a national audience on CNN, gathered to hear from the six remaining Democratic hopefuls on a range of kitchen-table issues thought to be important to suburban voters who delivered the presidency for Joe Biden in 2020 but have since swung their votes to the GOP in the 2022 midterms - and are likely seen to go for the eventual Republican nominee this year. While for the most part collegial in nature, there were plenty of excitable moments as the candidates sought to make one last case for votes.

One of the biggest issues that came up was the issue of how to preserve the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) in the face of continued assaults from Republicans. During the debate, moderator and former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt (who represented southern parts of the St. Louis area during his congressional tenure) asked if Obama's signature health legislation is worth preserving to where it eventually becomes a "third rail" of politics alongside Social Security and Medicare. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was asked the question by Gephardt, called saving the ACA "critical to preserving a democracy that works for the people" and cited its role in making healthcare "more affordable for the middle class". Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is a key proponent of a single-payer healthcare option in lieu of the ACA, vowed to go even further: "Healthcare is a right that must be guaranteed for every American. As President, I will look to replace our current entitlements and the ACA - which has become a fundraising vehicle for Republicans looking to gut it - with a single-payer healthcare system that provides the same high quality healthcare that I get as a Senator".

Another topic that generated considerable interest - and set off a discussion over old high school stereotypes - was the topic of bullying. When asked by moderator Don Lemon about what steps he intends to take regarding teen suicides and "social cruelty" amongst teenagers, Pete Buttigieg responded, "As President, I am going to work to ensure that our nation's students are focusing on their grades and their extracurricular activities, not worrying about whether or not the cool crowd will be nice to them". Harris also expressed support for anti-bullying measures and remarked that the issue was not just one largely focused on LGBTQ students, not knowing that her response to Buttigieg would turn into a discussion over old high school behaviors. "Everyone deserves a chance to fit in with the popular kids, which shouldn't even be a thing to begin with", Harris said, but also attempted to draw comparisons to recent mass shootings in high schools and other culture war minefields, "Nobody wants a mass shooting in their backyard, and parents who are perfectly OK with letting their kids get bullied at school or calling kids who do make the football team or the choir 'spoiled brats' or worse just because their kid can't fit in - something Donald Trump encourages from the classroom to the NFL to our corporate boardrooms - are the reason why we have these shootings to begin with".

That provoked strong reactions from the other candidates. Warren responded by alluding to a teen suicide during the 2000s that made headlines in the St. Louis area, "A teenager became famous when she committed suicide, not because of mean old bullies who rightfully should be ignored anyway, but because the bully in truth was a vengeful parent who impersonated a teenage boy. This is why context matters more than mere superficiality", and called out Harris for attempting to "pull a Taylor Swift on the audience here and on TV, never mind that a good chunk of these same white suburban women Democrats try too hard to win over will probably go for DeSantis anyway". Buttigieg also remarked "You can push all this invasive legislation to overregulate social media, and it still does not change the fact that LGBTQIA+ students will continue to face even worse bullying. Stopping bullying begins with the heart, not necessarily a piece of paper that can be struck down by Trump's Supreme Court". North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper also called Harris's statements hypocritical, "I didn't care about whether the cool kids liked me or not. Growing up, all I cared about was doing well in school and helping out on my family's tobacco farm in Nash County, North Carolina. That was much more satisfying than watching my back, which is why no piece of fashionable legislation has any sway with me because God commands us to be good to all humans, just like my state's very own Billy Graham taught us all". He also pointed to an issue he advocated for that led to his 2016 election as Governor, "My support for public accommodations in North Carolina represented real justice for LGBT folks, not shortsighted small talk about high school gossip that eventually dies when we graduate".

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, who like Buttigieg is also openly gay, shared his own words of wisdom: "When it comes to high school bullies, aggravating them by weaponizing the FBI or some forgettable pop star isn't going to stop hate. The best revenge for bullying is doing well, and as someone who had his own fair share of bullying, becoming a successful businessman and later a successful Governor of the best state in America, Colorado, was definitely the best revenge. That, my friend, is a positive progressive message", and also took aim at Harris's college past as an Alpha Kappa Alpha sister at Howard University, "The last person who needs to be talking about bullying is someone who perhaps fit the 'popular kid' stereotype, one who was in a sorority in college, like Kamala Harris". Harris responded, "Not everyone who joins a sorority necessarily has money or comes from the so-called popular crowd", and pointed out that "everyone - even successful and rich people - face bullying, and it is dispiriting to our conscience and our democracy. But it shouldn't stop me - a wallflower in her high school days - from trying to correct the problems that plague our democracy, because we must try before we even rush to judgments, before these kids have hate and division baked in their minds".

Climate change and related manufacturing jobs also became key topics during the debate. In response to a question from moderator Tod Robberson regarding economic diversification in the economically stagnant St. Louis area, whose declining manufacturing output has also affected its local economy for decades, Sen. Amy Klobuchar pointed to sustainable farming and green manufacturing as "areas with room to grow". "St. Louis is the gateway to America, and one way to reinvigorate that spirit the way Charles Lindbergh envisioned, the way the organizers of the World's Fair saw it, is with incentives for electric car and solar panel manufacturing at places like all these closed down auto manufacturing plants around town", said Klobuchar. When asked by moderator Chris Wallace if transforming St. Louis's economy is possible in an age where companies are intent on doing manufacturing in right-to-work states (as opposed to Missouri which repealed its right-to-work laws by ballot initiative), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper remarked, "You don't need to be a right-to-work state to compete. Whether so-called "right to work" or so-called "union shops", my initiatives for creating good-paying jobs for millions of Americans with fair wages and good benefits - including electric car manufacturing and sustainable farming, are things all Americans can rally around and will pay for themselves regardless of what radical Republicans like Josh Hawley want to do with workers' rights while taking money from corporations and pretending to be 'for the common man'".

Criminal justice was another topic that drew interest, due to the fallout from the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed Black youth in the nearby suburb of Ferguson, and the resulting riots. "There is still work to be done to bring fair justice to every American, and we must not forget that Black lives still matter after all that's happened", Harris remarked. Warren responded, "Well here you go again, sounds kinda funny considering Cori Bush, a true advocate for social justice and police reform who fought hard for Michael Brown, has in fact endorsed my campaign. If only you didn't waste your time trying to appease (actor-turned-former California Gov.) Arnold Schwarzenegger in San Francisco...".

On other topics, all expressed support for maintaining the progressive tax system in the United States ("There is absolutely ZERO incentive for a regressive flat tax that favors the rich", says Warren), preserving a woman's right to choose ("Women are not commodities to be enslaved and belittled around", says Harris) and some form of a Green New Deal ranging from market-based (Polis) to complete economic replacement (Warren). While generally mixed in reception, the overt focus on the anti-bullying issue - largely seen as a relatively minor issue save for some hardcore "culture war" voters on both sides - brought up during the debate puts Harris in the hot seat, with progressive commentator Ana Kasparian remarking on the following morning's podcast for The Young Turks, "Who cares what the cool kids think? Once you get out of high school, no one cares about conformity. All Kamala Harris has done is prove she's a try-hard hypocrite when it comes to the struggle bus".

[SaintStan86]

Source: Hampton Roads Sports Commission
Author: Unknown
Chrysler Hall in Norfolk, Virginia, site of the January 31, 2024 Republican presidential debate.

January 31, 2024
REPUBLICANS MAKE THEIR LAST STAND IN NORFOLK BEFORE IOWA CAUCUSES
Wednesday night was anything but a mundane midweek affair as ten Republican candidates descended on Norfolk, Virginia's Chrysler Hall to make a last push for support before voters in Iowa make their presidential voices heard in next Monday's "first in the nation" caucuses. With Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, himself a vice presidential hopeful, in attendance to introduce the candidates and eventually watch the debate from the balcony of Chrysler Hall, the candidates debated a whole range of critical topics with a primary focus on military and foreign policy matters important to the Hampton Roads area's large military voter base. The debate was broadcast on CNN with former Trump administration advisor Sebastian Gorka, now a radio host with Salem Media, amongst the moderators.

Gorka's questions were largely seen as litmus tests for candidates seeking to maintain Trump's trademark nationalist economic and foreign policy stances, with one of them - dealing with whether or not to invade Russia if the United States were to be dealt a cyberattack by the Kremlin - generating the most attention. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who unlike some of the more hawkish candidates has been reluctant to float engagement in military intervention, continued to reiterate that "America has no business inserting itself into the affairs of rogue nations like Russia whose battle with Ukraine mostly involves territory where a good chunk of the populace has been more supportive of Putin than Zelenskyy". However, DeSantis also noted that "If America were to be attacked physically or virtually by Putin, we will response in kind by sending troops over to push back and diplomats most especially to negotiate peace in the region, just like Donald Trump would have done".

Former Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, argued that "waiting for America to be attacked before we respond is a bridge that is far too costly", and called for a limited military presence in vulnerable parts of Ukraine while negotiations for peace are ongoing between Ukraine and Russia. She also railed against involuntary military service, arguing that "the use of mass armies during Vietnam did more harm than good, since unlike World War II where democracy was truly under assault, Vietnam was not a threat to us", and also argued against requiring women to register for selective service as well. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo echoed similar sentiments, but unlike Haley argued that a continued military presence in the region was unnecessary, "If Donald Trump were still President, there would be no military presence of any kind from anyone, let alone a war in the Ukraine", and remarked "Ukraine is to Biden what Iraq was to George W. Bush".

Military spending was another issue that came up, especially with concerns about the national debt becoming a paramount issue for Republicans. When asked by moderator Chris Wallace if the U.S. is spending too much money on defense, poll-challenged Sen. Ted Cruz responded, "There is no such thing as too much money for defense, but there is waste in the Pentagon that must be dealt with, starting with defense contractors who enter into no-bid contracts only to offer infrastructure and weapons that are less reliable than their costs would justify". Cruz also called for a reform of military bases nationwide, and argued that "no military base should be given special protections, and all efforts should be made to repatriate lost economic revenues into new American manufacturing and redevelopment initiatives", and lambasted Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for "spending more time teaching our military about proper pronouns and critical race theory than how to deal with nuclear weapons and rogue countries like China". Sen. Ben Sasse also echoed similar sentiments, "While China is training its military to eventually overpower us physically and digitally, we are throwing money away into defense programs that don't create a well-oiled military machine but rather grease the wheels of defense contractor lobbyists and PR spox, some of whom don't even have military experience".

Border security and immigration were also important flashpoints discussed during this debate. Responding to a question by moderator Wolf Blitzer over whether or not relatively inland states like Virginia should be concerned, former Vice President Mike Pence remarked, "Immigration is an issue that affects us all, especially since we have so-called 'immigrants' rights' activists and nonprofits like Catholic Charities who go and ship illegal immigrants all over the country, while American citizens and even legal immigrants continue to languish under a broken system". He also defended the decisions of Governors like DeSantis to involve their states in border enforcement, pointing to shortcomings by Biden in his handling of the crisis at the border with Mexico. Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio continued to reiterate his support for "comprehensive border security and immigration reform", arguing that his proposal "does not amount to blanket amnesty contrary to what critics think", and called out his fellow Floridian DeSantis for being "more interested in scoring points with fringe nativists than offering constructive solutions". Gov. Larry Hogan also expressed support for immigration reforms similar to Rubio's, pointing to his Korean-born wife Yumi as well as Reagan's landmark 1986 immigration reform legislation, pointing that "Reagan would not have approved of the way Donald Trump treated immigrants as President" to mixed reception from the audience.

Support for first responders was also universal amongst the candidates, with Hogan pointing to his own "Hogan's Heroes" campaign initiative, in which Hogan's campaign highlights a different first responder or frontline medical worker every day on his Facebook page. "As President of the United States, our first responders will always have my respect", Hogan proclaimed. Cruz also vowed to strengthen legal protections for police officers, while stopping short of protecting 'qualified immunity' for police officers in disputes with suspects, "The police have every right to do their job and protect and serve, but we must also remind ourselves that fair justice is something that everyone should be afforded", while DeSantis defended his initiative to "defund cities who defund the police", arguing that "cities and states who refuse to protect their citizens from crime and violence won't be getting a dime from Uncle Sam for anything under my watch". Former Gov. Chris Christie, responding to a question from moderator Jake Tapper about whether or not the 'defund the police' movement is "dead", also declared that "any politician who thinks it's a good idea to disarm our police officers in the name of social justice shouldn't even be under consideration for let alone nominated to sentencing or prison reform commissions", and argued that a "President Kamala Harris would be a disaster for our communities and for crime victims especially".

Sen. Tom Cotton also continued to defend his stances in favor of the War on Drugs, despite facing ongoing criticism over his stances which have been more hawkish in comparison to other Republican candidates. "We must understand that for all the laudable goals of loosening laws on illegal drugs with regards to civil liberties and prison overcrowding, drug abuse still remains a serious threat to our communities and those who abuse drugs still continue to remain unproductive in comparison to those who chose not to abuse their bodies". Other candidates were not as supportive of Cotton's hawkish stances: Rubio argued that "continuing to impose mandatory minimum sentences, especially since in some states marijuana is now legal as a recreational drug, ultimately becomes counterproductive and nothing more than an avenue for drug cartels in Mexico and Cuba to continue profiting while Americans suffer", while Hogan argued that "synthetic drugs like fentanyl, meth and opioids are a bigger threat to families and communities than cannabis has ever been". Cruz, while expressing support for crackdowns on sellers of illegal drugs, also admitted that "It's hard to see how a relatively natural drug like marijuana, already approved in many states for recreational use, is a threat when the real threat lies with those who traffic in the sale of fentanyl and opioids to poorer Americans who feel left behind economically", pointing the finger at Biden for "leaving Americans without work and dependent on the drug trade that thrives in depressed communities like West Virginia which for too long has struggled economically at the mercy of China".

Overall, the foreign policy- and defense-heavy debate was well received by the Republican electorate, with most of the complaints centered on candidate differences as well as the debate merely being broadcast on CNN. Haley's hawkish stances on Ukraine and military involvement, as well as Cotton's continued support for drug policies not unlike those championed by Reagan in the 1980s, were seen with dismay from civil libertarians and core Trump supporters who largely identify as reluctant to embrace full-scale military intervention, while DeSantis's and Sasse's openness to reducing military spending has generated a mixed response from military voters while receiving a generally good response from fiscal and traditional conservatives. Christie's and Hogan's overt support for police and firefighters, while seen as laudable by virtually all respondents to post-debate polls, did not lead to much of a boost amongst conservative respondents.

[SaintStan86]

February 1, 2024
"I'VE SEEN ENOUGH" - PENCE EARNS MAJOR ENDORSEMENT AS IOWA CAUCUSES LOOM
On Thursday, mere hours after Republicans debated for the final time before next Monday's Iowa caucuses, Mike Pence earned a major endorsement that is likely to turn heads and give the former Vice President an edge in Iowa's "first in the nation" caucuses, while also solidifying his support amongst a key element of the conservative base that has been crucial to Republican presidential candidates in past elections, even long before Donald Trump.

On Thursday, the former Vice President earned the endorsement of two-time presidential candidate and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who said that he had planned to wait until just before the Iowa caucuses to make his decision, citing the fluid nature of the Republican primary as well as the significance his endorsement would have on the race. However, following last night's debate Huckabee declared, "There is no doubt that my decision was a very tough one and one that I could have very well withheld. But I've seen enough, and today I am announcing my endorsement for Mike Pence to become our 47th President."

Making note of the fact that his endorsement could potentially upset hardcore supporters of the former President, who have given mixed attitudes to Pence after he voted to certify the 2020 presidential results after a mob of activists attacked the Capitol while votes were being counted earlier in the day, Huckabee acknowledged, "Look, I'm aware that people aren't going to be happy with me, and that's understandable. But we also must learn to look at the big picture, and ask ourselves 'what could we have done to help President Trump more in 2020?' Since Biden took office, he has been a disaster for America, and whatever moral leadership Biden did have left in him has faded away. That is more concerning than whatever concerns we may have had about election fraud, which by the way is something that cannot be ignored".

In endorsing Pence, Huckabee also remarked, "Mike Pence is a good man who has stood tall for our values throughout his entire career. His defense of the unborn, of the nuclear family, of our police officers and military, of our Constitution - these are all values we all hold dear in our hearts. And since then, his ability to speak his values to hundreds of audiences across the nation is just beyond words. That's the kind of leadership we need from our President. And that's why I'm encouraging my supporters in Iowa and elsewhere across America to cast their votes for Mike Pence for President." At a rally in Mason City, Iowa, Pence thanked Huckabee for his friendship and called the former Arkansas Governor "a true champion for our values and for our country". "I am honored to consider Mike Huckabee a friend, and as your President I will fight to uphold the values that made this country great and restore them to their fullest glory", said Pence.

In response to the endorsement, Sen. Ted Cruz stated "Mike Huckabee is a great friend and a true foot soldier for Christ. But he is not the only person in the room that matters, and at the end of the day what matters is the voice of the average voter, and there are indeed unanswered questions with regards to our election". Cruz also took note of his endorsements from many members of Congress including from his home state of Texas, as well as several other Republicans who either voted to certify or decertify the results from Arizona and Pennsylvania alike. In addition, Cruz has also been endorsed by actor and bodybuilder Chuck Norris (who called Cruz "a true freedom fighter for all of us") and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick ("Ted Cruz is the right candidate in the right place at the right time").

Among other Republican endorsements, former Ambassador Nikki Haley has been endorsed by Iowa U.S. Reps. Ashley Hinson and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in addition to Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst in the same state; neither Iowa's other U.S. Senator, Chuck Grassley, nor U.S. Reps. Zach Nunn and Randy Feenstra have endorsed a candidate. Rick Santorum, who won the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses by a mere 34 votes over eventual 2012 nominee and current Utah U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, have also not endorsed a candidate. The endorsement of Pence by Huckabee is viewed as giving Pence an advantage in Iowa over his rivals, Sen. Ben Sasse and Haley, who both trail Pence within the margin of error according to the latest polls with the latter rising after the aforementioned endorsements rolled in. Gov. Ron DeSantis is firmly anchored in fourth according to polls, with Sen. Ted Cruz and Pompeo battling for fifth. No other candidate has generally polled higher than 5 percent in the state.

February 2, 2024
BARACK OBAMA ENDORSES "AGENT OF CHANGE" KAMALA HARRIS
On Friday, former President Barack Obama made a surprise appearance at a rally in Davenport for Vice President Kamala Harris, where he officially issued his endorsement of Harris on the stage at Modern Woodmen Park, which is home to the region's minor league baseball team. In endorsing Harris, Obama called the Vice President "an agent of change who will transform America for a new generation and take her to heights never before seen". He also called out Republicans for engaging in "a culture of fear and vengeance rooted in deep insecurities exploited by the wealthy and powerful who don't pay their fair share of taxes while families are forced to make hard decisions and seniors are forced to choose between food and medicine", and proclaimed, "Donald Trump is going to be on the ballot. Just his name won't be there".

On stage, Harris thanked Obama for his leadership as the 44th President of the United States, and declared "I am not running to be a second term of Joe Biden nor I am running to be a third or fourth term of Barack Obama. I am running for my own term, and while a lot of the good stuff you saw with our President will certainly continue under my campaign, there will be some unique touches that strive to fulfill our destiny as a nation". In her speech, Harris vowed to "make free and fair elections possible for all Americans", "guarantee a living wage for every American", and "deliver results for every American regardless of their skin color, their income and their married partner".

Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was in Dubuque to receive the endorsement of former U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, a four-term Democrat who ran as the Democratic nominee against Joni Ernst for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Democrat Tom Harkin in 2014 and has since resumed his legal practice in Denver, Colorado. A left-populist Democrat who was once considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, Braley treated Warren and her supporters to a dinner of barbecue and blues music not unlike the annual gatherings he hosted for his campaigns during his congressional tenure. "I am honored to be here with you tonight for some 'Bruce, Blues & BBQ' like we did back in the day, as we seek to send to Congress a special lady who will fight for the American people and fight back against corporate tyrants who wish we would just go away and take our paycheck. To which I say to them...not so fast!" Warren brushed off the endorsement of Obama for Harris as "small talk", instead choosing to focus on "our positive message of economic inclusion for every American in every corner of the country" and vowed to make financial reform - both for consumers and political campaigns - "job number one on Day One".

In Sioux City, former Secretary Pete Buttigieg addressed a raucous audience at Fleet Farm Arena in Downtown Sioux City, with none other than David Letterman as his special guest. During the rally, Letterman - whose Late Show with David Letterman used Sioux City as the "home office" for his famous Top Ten lists during his first two years on CBS after leaving NBC in 1993 - poked fun at Buttigieg's rivals and Buttigieg himself, and also remarked "Donald Trump was going to come here tonight. He just forgot to book his tee time at Whispering Creek because he was 'tweeting', or was he 'truthing'?", referring to a public golf course in the city as well as Twitter and Trump's own Truth Social platform, while also remarking "I was supposed to come in my acid wash jeans, but I popped the button off eating all the leftover barbecue at Elizabeth Warren's rally". Notably, Letterman was also joined by none other than Paul Shaffer and his "World's Most Dangerous Band" on stage, who performed the theme to Letterman's talk show at the end of the rally.

The other three candidates for the Democrats were also present statewide, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar picking up the endorsement of former U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer at a rally in Waterloo where Klobuchar was also endorsed by the Iowa Farm Bureau (who also endorsed Sen. Ben Sasse on the GOP side in a surprise endorsement). North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper was in Council Bluffs on Friday meeting with manufacturing workers on manufacturing policy, while Colorado Gov. Jared Polis hosted a town hall on the campus of the University of Iowa in Iowa City, focusing on education and tech entrepreneurship. Overall, the Iowa polls have become a dead heat between Harris, Warren and Buttigieg (the latter of whom hopes to benefit from his being from the Midwest and Iowa's comparatively whiter and more moderate electorate). Asides from Klobuchar (who represents neighboring Minnesota in the Senate) polling over 10 percent, neither Cooper nor Polis have polled higher than five percent.

[2016]

Iowa is going to be interesting and very close on the Republican Side. Pence & Sasse fighting over the same Group of Voters: Evangelicals. Most of them live geographically speaking in northwest Iowa, Feenstras District. If Pence/Sasse split them up that opens the Door for Haley if she gets enough Turnout in Des Moines and the Suburbs around it and in Eastern Iowa.

Pence/Sasse played a very dangerous Game here.

[SaintStan86]

Iowa has become the center of the political universe over the last week with candidates descending on the Hawkeye State seeking last-minute votes in barnstorming sessions and campaign rallies from the Missouri River to the Mississippi River. This has been especially obvious since Thursday morning, when whatever key political reporters were stationed near St. Louis or in Norfolk - where the Democrats and Republicans respectively had their most recent debates - earlier in the week joined most of the rest of their colleagues in Iowa. All of the network news anchors are broadcasting from Des Moines through Monday night, when the last of Iowa's caucuses make their picks and the candidates proceed to New Hampshire.

February 5, 2024
DEMOCRATS CONTINUE, REPUBLICANS BEGIN, QUEST FOR VOTES IN IOWA CAUCUSES
At the stroke at 7:00 PM CT, both Democrats and Republicans convened in their respective caucuses across the state, with completely different sets of delegates being doled out as the night progresses. Since Thursday morning, upon the conclusions of Tuesday's Democratic debate and Wednesday's Republican debate, the candidates have been hard at work reaching out to voters in masonic lodges, assembly halls and high school gyms across the state, hoping to gain the trust of grassroots activists taking a pivotal role in deciding the future of the United States. At the end of the night, 40 delegates are expected to be handed out on both sides, with the GOP's delegates bound to the allocated winners based on statewide results and the Democrats' delegates pledged to certain candidates who qualify for them based on statewide as well as congressional district results.

The previous week was not without its controversies between two primary debates and a number of high-profile endorsements for candidates, but Fox News host Tucker Carlson especially drew attention the Monday after the Cincinnati debate in which Carlson scorned Republican contenders Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz and Ben Sasse on his Fox News program, Tucker Carlson Tonight, over various controversial comments made during the Cincinnati debate. In particular, Haley drew Carlson's scorn for mentioning adult diapers with regards to her children and their potential Social Security shortfalls, which in turn drew unexpected support from diaper fetishists and infantilists who tweeted support for Haley on their social media platforms, which she was quick to disavow as Carlson accused Haley of being a "closet groomer" on his show. Meanwhile, Cruz also drew fire for his defense of waterboarding and the War on Terror, with Carlson going as far as referring to Cruz as "a third term of George W. Bush", while Sasse's highlighting of a conversation in which Carlson was alleged to have sought help with college admissions for his children from Hunter Biden - a topic often pushed by liberals and conservative critics of Carlson - resulted in Carlson raising the spector of a potential defamation suit against Sasse.

However, by the time the Iowa caucuses began to roll around, most of Carlson's critiques had become lost in the frenetic news cycle of the caucuses with major endorsements having already rolled in and most of the speculation turning over to who would finish first in both caucuses. By midday, final exit polls on the Republican side showed Vice President Mike Pence with a slightly larger edge after his endorsement from 2008 Republican caucus victor Mike Huckabee, with Haley having closed ranks with Pence and Sen. Ben Sasse in the final exit polls for the GOP side, with all top three contenders ranging between 15 and 20 percent of the vote. Another trio of candidates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, formed another close tier hovering from around to just over 10 percent of the vote each, and Sen. Tom Cotton not too far behind as well, with the rest of the candidates in the mid-to-low single digits.

While DeSantis did make headlines by winning the endorsement of Elon Musk (who earlier endorsed Colorado Gov. Jared Polis on the Democratic side before Nevada's Democratic caucuses), it is not likely to move the needle much for the Florida Governor with Iowa's predominantly blue-collar, socially conservative and agrarian GOP voter base as DeSantis's strongest base of support has been among suburban Des Moines voters who have also given large amounts of support to Haley and Sasse. Sasse generally continues to lead in areas west of Des Moines along with pockets of support in the state capital's suburbs and in college towns such as Ames, Iowa City and Cedar Falls, while Pence continues to enjoy strong support across rural Iowa as well as in eastern Iowa including Davenport and Dubuque. Evangelical voters are also somewhat divided as well, with those who identify as favoring "a more politically active Christianity" a la Robert Jeffress and Franklin Graham generally favoring Pence and those who identify with "a less politically active Christianity" preferring Sasse.

The Democratic side also has a clear three-way battle, with Vice President Kamala Harris, former Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren all posting at least 20 percent of the vote in final exit polls for the Democrats and Sen. Amy Klobuchar crossing 10 percent of the vote due to her familiarity in areas closer to her home state of Minnesota (as well as former U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer's late-breaking endorsement and that of the aforementioned Iowa Farm Bureau). Harris's endorsement from Barack Obama is believed to have helped her with core Democratic voters across the state, while Warren enjoys strong support from white liberals in Des Moines and in college towns as well. Buttigieg fares most strongly in rural parts of the state as well as in eastern Iowa (whose metro areas share many of the same characteristics as South Bend, Indiana's own Michiana region where "Mayor Pete" hails from), not unlike fellow Hoosier Pence on the GOP side.

IOWA
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Results of Caucus:
Kamala Harris - 26.49 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Pete Buttigieg - 25.31 percent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Elizabeth Warren - 21.41 perecent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 16.62 perecent (Qualified to earn delegates)
Roy Cooper - 5.07 percent
Jared Polis - 4.53 percent
(Remaining 0.57 percent went to other candidates)

DELEGATES EARNED
CD1/Davenport, Iowa City & east Des Moines exurbs (6 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD2/Cedar Rapids, Dubuque & Mason City (7 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 3, Amy Klobuchar 2, Kamala Harris 1, Elizabeth Warren 1
CD3/Des Moines & Ottumwa (8 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 2, Elizabeth Warren 2, Amy Klobuchar 1
CD4/Sioux City, Council Bluffs & Ames (5 delegates):
Pete Buttigieg 2, Kamala Harris 2, Elizabeth Warren 1
Party Leaders and Elected Officials (5 delegates):
Kamala Harris 2, Pete Buttigieg 1, Elizabeth Warren 1, Amy Klobuchar 1
At-Large Delegates (9 delegates):
Kamala Harris 3, Pete Buttigieg 3, Elizabeth Warren 2, Amy Klobuchar 1

TOTAL PLEDGED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
(1,885 needed to clinch without Automatic Delegates)
Kamala Harris - 55 delegates +13 from Iowa
Elizabeth Warren - 39 delegates +8 from Iowa
Roy Cooper - 15 delegates
Pete Buttigieg - 14 delegates +14 from Iowa
Amy Klobuchar - 5 delegates +5 from Iowa
Jared Polis - 3 delegates
Gina Raimondo - 0 delegates

Harris's narrow first-place finish in Iowa is attributed to her strong support in the Des Moines suburbs where she exceeded 30 percent of the vote, and where her endorsement from Obama certainly played a factor. In addition, Harris also performed well in the eastern part of the state as well as in the 4th District around Sioux City and Council Bluffs where she was virtually tied with second-place finisher Buttigieg. Buttigieg, however, manages to win the most delegates statewide due to his strong performance in the Davenport and Dubuque areas, as well as dominating most of the state's rural counties and eking a narrow win in Woodbury County, home to Sioux City. The only other Democrats to receive delegates statewide were Warren, whose 8 delegates were even spread throughout white liberal enclaves in Des Moines as well as more blue-collar voters within manufacturing centers and students and academia within college towns, and Klobuchar, whose 5 delegates chiefly came in the Cedar Rapids-based 2nd District (which also borders Klobuchar's home state of Minnesota) and from suburban voters in Des Moines.

Cooper and Polis were never competitive in the state, even though both were present during the caucuses on Monday night, and most of the just over 1 percent that did not go to any of the six remaining candidates either went to dropped-out candidate Gina Raimondo (who has since endorsed Harris) or to write-in choices such as former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin and former First Lady Michelle Obama. One caucus participant even cast a vote for shock jock Howard Stern, who after considerable thought had already decided against a presidential run but on the following Tuesday morning called on "whoever cast a vote for me in Iowa to come on my show". (The delegate turned out to be a 32-year-old farmer's wife from Carroll County who later did a striptease on his show from his New York City studio, and who also happens to be a burlesque dancer.)

IOWA
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

Statewide Results of Caucus + DELEGATES EARNED:
Mike Pence - 19.23 percent (8 delegates)
Ben Sasse - 16.73 percent (7 delegates)
Nikki Haley - 15.69 percent (6 delegates)
Ron DeSantis - 11.68 percent (5 delegates)
Mike Pompeo - 10.21 percent (4 delegates)
Ted Cruz - 9.45 percent (4 delegates)
Tom Cotton - 6.41 percent (2 delegates)
Marco Rubio - 3.03 percent (1 delegate)
Larry Hogan - 2.49 percent (1 delegate)
Mike Lindell - 2.45 percent (1 delegate)
Chris Christie - 1.58 percent (1 delegate)
Candace Owens - 0.94 percent

TOTAL REPUBLICAN DELEGATES (1,250 needed to clinch)
Mike Pence - 8 delegates
Ben Sasse - 7 delegates
Nikki Haley - 6 delegates
Ron DeSantis - 5 delegates
Mike Pompeo - 4 delegates
Ted Cruz - 4 delegates
Tom Cotton - 2 delegates
Marco Rubio - 1 delegate
Larry Hogan - 1 delegate
Mike Lindell - 1 delegate
Chris Christie - 1 delegate
Candace Owens - 0 delegates

The Iowa caucuses for the GOP turned out to be incredibly close, with Pence scoring a narrow win on the basis of his strong performance throughout rural Iowa, and particularly in areas east of Des Moines including Mason City, Waterloo, Dubuque and Burlington, where voters were drawn to Pence's traditional conservative views as well as his experience working with former President Trump (who managed to outperform past Republicans in this part of the state in both of his presidential runs). On the other hand, Sasse generated his strongest performance from areas west of Des Moines including the Sioux City and Council Bluffs areas (where he has been on the local news since he first ran for the U.S. Senate in neighboring Nebraska in 2014), and also performed competitively in the Des Moines suburbs which narrowly favored Haley. Sasse also performed particularly well in college towns such as Ames (home to Iowa State University) and Iowa City (home to the University of Iowa), where his fiscal conservative message combined with his skepticism towards the former President presented a streak of an iconoclast that appealed to college students in much the same way Ron Paul's libertarian idealism appealed to them in 2008.

Throughout the state, DeSantis struggled in rural areas but performed competitively with Haley and Pence throughout the Des Moines suburbs and in communities along the Mississippi River. His subpar performance (generally under 10 percent) in western Iowa is being viewed in large part because of Sasse's overperformance in that region, which explained DeSantis's late-breaking attack ads on the Nebraska U.S. Senator in the closing days of the Iowa campaign. Cruz's performance, given his 2016 caucus victory here, was nonetheless disappointing with exit polls indicating that voters felt Cruz was "yesterday's news", with some having never forgiven him for his endorsement of Trump weeks before the 2016 election after he drew boos at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland that year for calling on RNC delegates to "vote your conscience" without endorsing Trump. Cruz fell behind Pompeo, who surged on the strength of late-breaking endorsements from Iowa state legislators as well as U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn from the Des Moines-based 3rd.

Further down the tally, Cotton's hawkish tone on marijuana policy as well as military intervention not only appeared to have backfired in the eyes of Iowa caucusgoers, but in the final statewide tally Cotton even lost a delegate, as the final statewide tallies ended up computing an extra delegate and his statewide percentage was the farthest from the rounding decimal. No other candidate managed to win more than just over three percent of the caucus vote, though all candidates with the exception of Candace Owens managed to win at least one delegate.