In Minnesota, Dems only have two year trifecta during the past three decades

[Minnesota Mike]

No statewide office in Minnesota has been won by the GOP since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was re-elected in a narrow loss that turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Democrats.

No Republican has gotten over 50% in Minnesota statewide wide since Arne Carlson in 1994.

A Lot of Democrats are packed in 80% D districts in Minneapolis and St Paul making MN a tougher state for Democrats legislatively than it is statewide. As for the 20 year Governor draught that was 8 years of liberal Republican Arne Carlson, 4 years of Jessie Ventura and 8 years of Tim Pawlenty who only won with pluralities.

[Minnesota Mike]

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

[Minnesota Mike]

There are a few islands of Democrats in outstate MN usually in the larger cities and college towns. Democrats are very likely to pick up a Senate seat and a House seat in the Rochester area, bringing them to 1 Senate seat and 3 house seats. The college towns of Mankato, Moorhead, and St Cloud all have a safe Dem House seat and a likely Dem Senate seat. Winona has a safe Dem House seat. Basically any city in outstate MN over 30,000 leans Democratic, it is only to true rural areas that are Republican.

[Minnesota Mike]

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 

It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.

[Minnesota Mike]

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 

It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.

I have Murphy and Lislegard hanging on due to personal brand. The Cloquet seat and Eklund are a toss up. We’ll lose the Marquart seat and Sandstede likely goes down too

That's pretty much how I see it too.