How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control?
I’d say pretty likely for the ones that don’t contain a significant part of Duluth.
So the third and sixth districts in the Senate:
And a max gain of about six seats in the House (3A/B, 4A/B, 6A/B), and maybe seven (11A):
Though after 2020 redistricting the map will have changed a bit, so I don't know how much that impacts GOP chances in the region.
That would be enough to flip the lower house R unless there are additional D pickup opportunities in outer MSP. It looks like they already control a bunch of seats pretty far out from the city though.
Tbf, the MSP bubble is pretty big and as was the case throughout the country in 2020, they lost several suburban Biden districts. They aren't maxed out in MSP, especially after redistricting, though 2022 may not be the year to make those gains and they'll still need a few seats outside MSP to actually win either chamber.
MN's geography def penalizes Dems in the state legistlature due to their concentration in one metro.
