In Minnesota, Dems only have two year trifecta during the past three decades
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  In Minnesota, Dems only have two year trifecta during the past three decades
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Author Topic: In Minnesota, Dems only have two year trifecta during the past three decades  (Read 1096 times)
David Hume
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« on: December 17, 2021, 09:38:08 PM »

Only in 2013-14. From 1990-2010, they usually had the upper hand in the state legs, but never won governorship. They kept governorship since 2010, but GOP controlled each house for six years during the decade.

I am quite surprised to find out this, considering this state voted Dems in every elections from 1976.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2021, 10:20:05 PM »

Not terribly uncommon. Virginia Republicans only had about 4 years of a trifecta between when they finally flipped the legislature and when it started trending back to the Democrats, over pretty much the entire state's history. Constantly losing the governor's office in the 2000s let quite a lot of policy-making opportunities slip by.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2021, 11:41:47 PM »

Im told the MN Democrats are the strongest state party in the nation.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2021, 11:44:51 PM »

Im told the MN Democrats are the strongest state party in the nation.

Well, they did win every statewide race in 2010 and 2014.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2021, 11:53:48 PM »

No statewide office in Minnesota has been won by the GOP since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was re-elected in a narrow loss that turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Democrats.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2021, 12:50:34 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2021, 12:53:51 AM by Minnesota Mike »

No statewide office in Minnesota has been won by the GOP since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was re-elected in a narrow loss that turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Democrats.

No Republican has gotten over 50% in Minnesota statewide wide since Arne Carlson in 1994.

A Lot of Democrats are packed in 80% D districts in Minneapolis and St Paul making MN a tougher state for Democrats legislatively than it is statewide. As for the 20 year Governor draught that was 8 years of liberal Republican Arne Carlson, 4 years of Jessie Ventura and 8 years of Tim Pawlenty who only won with pluralities.
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David Hume
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2021, 09:18:14 AM »

Not terribly uncommon. Virginia Republicans only had about 4 years of a trifecta between when they finally flipped the legislature and when it started trending back to the Democrats, over pretty much the entire state's history. Constantly losing the governor's office in the 2000s let quite a lot of policy-making opportunities slip by.
That's quite understandable for a southern state. KY only have 3 year R trifecta in the state history. But for a northern D state, this is surprising.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2021, 09:31:47 AM »

Im told the MN Democrats are the strongest state party in the nation.

If they are so strong why couldnít they win the state senate in 2020?  All they needed to do was beat an incumbent Republican in a double digit Biden Rochester district.  If the shoe was on the other foot and Republicans needed to beat a Dem in a double digit Trump district, that Democrat would have lost easily.
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pikachu
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2021, 11:43:32 AM »

I mean, look at most Midwestern (and Pennsylvania) states over the last few decades and youíre not going to find many Dem trifectas even before the great WWC collapse.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2021, 11:54:05 AM »

I mean, look at most Midwestern (and Pennsylvania) states over the last few decades and youíre not going to find many Dem trifectas even before the great WWC collapse.

Yeah. In Illinois, Democrats never held a trifecta between the 1938 and 2002.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2022, 02:12:38 AM »

How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control? 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2022, 10:40:36 AM »

How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control? 

Iíd say pretty likely for the ones that donít contain a significant part of Duluth.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2022, 11:35:38 AM »

How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control?  

Iíd say pretty likely for the ones that donít contain a significant part of Duluth.

So the third and sixth districts in the Senate:



And a max gain of about six seats in the House (3A/B, 4A/B, 6A/B), and maybe seven (11A):



Though after 2020 redistricting the map will have changed a bit, so I don't know how much that impacts GOP chances in the region.  


That would be enough to flip the lower house R unless there are additional D pickup opportunities in outer MSP.  It looks like they already control a bunch of seats pretty far out from the city though.
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Frodo
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2022, 11:50:52 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2022, 11:56:22 AM by Frodo »

How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control?  

Iíd say pretty likely for the ones that donít contain a significant part of Duluth.

So the third and sixth districts in the Senate:



And a max gain of about six seats in the House (3A/B, 4A/B, 6A/B), and maybe seven (11A):



Though after 2020 redistricting the map will have changed a bit, so I don't know how much that impacts GOP chances in the region.  


That would be enough to flip the lower house R unless there are additional D pickup opportunities in outer MSP.  It looks like they already control a bunch of seats pretty far out from the city though.

The 4 A/B districts in the House aren't actually in the region apparently (hence my deletion of my original post), so that leaves Republicans with four districts they can flip.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2022, 12:26:56 PM »

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2022, 02:07:46 PM »

How likely is it that Republicans will sweep the remaining legislative seats in the Iron Range that they don't already control?  

Iíd say pretty likely for the ones that donít contain a significant part of Duluth.

So the third and sixth districts in the Senate:



And a max gain of about six seats in the House (3A/B, 4A/B, 6A/B), and maybe seven (11A):



Though after 2020 redistricting the map will have changed a bit, so I don't know how much that impacts GOP chances in the region.  


That would be enough to flip the lower house R unless there are additional D pickup opportunities in outer MSP.  It looks like they already control a bunch of seats pretty far out from the city though.

Tbf, the MSP bubble is pretty big and as was the case throughout the country in 2020, they lost several suburban Biden districts. They aren't maxed out in MSP, especially after redistricting, though 2022 may not be the year to make those gains and they'll still need a few seats outside MSP to actually win either chamber.

MN's geography def penalizes Dems in the state legistlature due to their concentration in one metro.
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Frodo
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2022, 02:20:53 PM »

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2022, 02:32:06 PM »

There are a few islands of Democrats in outstate MN usually in the larger cities and college towns. Democrats are very likely to pick up a Senate seat and a House seat in the Rochester area, bringing them to 1 Senate seat and 3 house seats. The college towns of Mankato, Moorhead, and St Cloud all have a safe Dem House seat and a likely Dem Senate seat. Winona has a safe Dem House seat. Basically any city in outstate MN over 30,000 leans Democratic, it is only to true rural areas that are Republican.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2022, 02:35:10 PM »

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 


It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.

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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2022, 06:15:06 PM »

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 


It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.



I have Murphy and Lislegard hanging on due to personal brand. The Cloquet seat and Eklund are a toss up. Weíll lose the Marquart seat and Sandstede likely goes down too
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2022, 06:57:17 PM »

If the presidency flips in 2024 theyíll probably finally get the trifecta in 2026.
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David Hume
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« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2022, 07:25:52 PM »

If the presidency flips in 2024 theyíll probably finally get the trifecta in 2026.
They can't even do that in 2018. If 2026 is a DeSantis midterm, the blue wave is very likely smaller than 2018.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2022, 07:33:10 PM »

Since 2016, Democrats haven't had control of a single legislative chamber in a state that Trump won in 2016, unless you count that weird Alaskan coalition. Republicans have had a majority of the members of the Alaskan House. Meanwhile, plenty of states that vote Democrat for President have Republican chambers.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2022, 08:06:49 PM »

Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.

Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and  +10 Walz Gov 2018).

House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.

What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)?  That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves. 


It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.



I have Murphy and Lislegard hanging on due to personal brand. The Cloquet seat and Eklund are a toss up. Weíll lose the Marquart seat and Sandstede likely goes down too

That's pretty much how I see it too.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2022, 08:25:14 PM »

If the presidency flips in 2024 theyíll probably finally get the trifecta in 2026.
They can't even do that in 2018. If 2026 is a DeSantis midterm, the blue wave is very likely smaller than 2018.

Too far out to speculate what things will look like in 2026, but Dems donít need all that amazing of a year to flip the state legislature, especially on the new maps. In 2020, they were 1 state senate seat away from having the trifecta for instance.
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