NH-Trafalgar: Trump +2 over Biden, +2 over Harris
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  NH-Trafalgar: Trump +2 over Biden, +2 over Harris		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NH-Trafalgar: Trump +2 over Biden, +2 over Harris  (Read 1415 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 16, 2021, 02:08:08 PM »
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TRF-NH-22-Gen-1213-Poll-Report.pdf

Donald Trump (R) 48%
Joe Biden (D-inc) 46%

Donald Trump (R) 48%
Kamala Harris (D) 46%
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2021, 02:16:01 PM »
Trashlolger
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2021, 02:24:16 PM »

Eh, I take this poll seriously. Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2021, 02:25:47 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on December 16, 2021, 02:24:16 PM

Eh, I take this poll seriously. Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2021, 02:58:51 PM »

When it gets close to the Election, take every poll with a grain of salt
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2021, 06:29:31 PM »
Why are they polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump but not Biden/Harris vs. other Republicans?
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Ritz
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2021, 06:44:56 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on December 16, 2021, 06:29:31 PM
Why are they polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump but not Biden/Harris vs. other Republicans?

No other Republicans have enough name recognition for the poll to matter.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2021, 07:49:38 PM »
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Chips
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2021, 08:06:58 PM »
I don't think Trump would be favored against either Biden or Harris if the election were today but this signifies that NH could once again become very competitive.
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Hammy
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2021, 09:13:19 PM »

They were closer than any other poll regarding margins, but also were among the highest in showing the wrong winner.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2021, 09:47:27 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 05:10:56 PM by TodayJunior »
Plausible if there's an anti-incumbency mood. This is one of the few Hillary states the GOP can still win (Nevada being the other) in a favorable environment. Trump only lost it by 3,000 votes in 2016. Still a tough uphill climb though.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2021, 10:10:10 PM »
I think NH's D lean is overestimated. The state is very White, and while it's decently educated, it's not hugely so. When Trump ran as more of an independent change candidate, New Hampshire responded to that. When he ran as the far-right status quo they didn't. The state likes moderates.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2021, 10:17:10 PM »
Trump isn't ahead of Biden in NH if Hassan is ahead plse, Biden is near 50% like he was on Election night and SISOLAK isn't 6 pts behind if CCM is only down bye 3
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2021, 10:28:32 PM »


Trump is being investigated by Insurrectionists Commission he might be able to run if DOJ indict him
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progressive85
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2021, 09:56:46 PM »
Joe Biden needs to be sacked as the D nominee in 2024.  He's got to go.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2021, 08:21:44 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2021, 08:50:17 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »
Quote from: 90s_kid on December 21, 2021, 09:56:46 PM
Joe Biden needs to be sacked as the D nominee in 2024.  He's got to go.

It's a 304 map until he loses the blue wall which hasn't been cracked since 2016 it's a 304 nap anyways, Harris or Bernie or Buttigieg aren't gonna crack the red wall unless Covid disappears
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2021, 08:53:59 AM »
Quote from: Hammy on December 16, 2021, 09:13:19 PM

They were closer than any other poll regarding margins, but also were among the highest in showing the wrong winner.

Yes, they erred in favor of Trump, but by less than the average erred in favor of Biden, which means they had Trump narrowly winning almost all of the swing states.   

Still, they picked up on the upset in VA-GOV this year and didn't swing wildly into Youngkin +10 territory.  When they are wrong, they favor the R, but I think they need to be taken seriously.
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redjohn
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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2021, 08:18:00 PM »
In today's environment, I think Trump would win NH by >5. Laughable for Biden, who had everything going for him in the northeast just a year ago. His administration has really blown it so far.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: December 23, 2021, 11:21:18 AM »
Quote from: redjohn on December 22, 2021, 08:18:00 PM
In today's environment, I think Trump would win NH by >5. Laughable for Biden, who had everything going for him in the northeast just a year ago. His administration has really blown it so far.

So, 2 pts is gonna end it for Biden yeah, I am being sarcastic but Trump was trailing Biden by alot more than Trump is beating Biden, Trump trailed Biden bye 14 pts and losing bye 5 pts

If we lose in 22 we might have another nominee anyways that is more electable maybe Tim Ryan, I would endorse him if he loses in 22,  he wanted to Prez anyways
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