NRSC internals of GA and NV: Laxalt +4 and Walker +1
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  NRSC internals of GA and NV: Laxalt +4 and Walker +1
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Author Topic: NRSC internals of GA and NV: Laxalt +4 and Walker +1  (Read 1004 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 22, 2021, 01:02:31 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2021, 01:06:20 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.
If this is the best an internal can do for Walker right now in GA he's going to have a hard time flipping the seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2021, 01:07:35 PM »

Warnock just needs to keep Walker below 50%.  He would have a really good chance in a runoff once control is already decided.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2021, 01:11:05 PM »

Warnock just needs to keep Walker below 50%.  He would have a really good chance in a runoff once control is already decided.

Imagine if Senate control came down to a runoff again - not out of the realm of possibility.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2021, 01:11:49 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.
If this is the best an internal can do for Walker right now in GA he's going to have a hard time flipping the seat.

Yeah. In terms of vulnerability, Warnock and Hassan are clearly a tier below Kelly or Cortez Masto.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2021, 01:12:51 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-could-flip-two-senate-seats-georgia-nevada-new-gop-n1286469

GA: Walker 49, Warnock 48
NV: Laxalt 46, Cortez Masto 42

Taking this with a huge grain of salt because of the source, but it's just about the only data we have.
If this is the best an internal can do for Walker right now in GA he's going to have a hard time flipping the seat.

Yeah. In terms of vulnerability, Warnock and Hassan are clearly a tier below Kelly or Cortez Masto.

I’d put Warnock ahead of Hassan in terms of vulnerability.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2021, 01:42:46 PM »

Not great numbers for Republicans given that this is an internal, but I think the undecideds in Nevada lean GOP.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2021, 01:48:34 PM »

NV = Safe R
GA = Lean D
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2021, 03:08:32 PM »

With these national conditions and this being an internal, this is an awful performance for Walker. I wonder how much of a factor his carpetbagging and domestic abuse claims are.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2021, 03:30:20 PM »

With these national conditions and this being an internal, this is an awful performance for Walker. I wonder how much of a factor his carpetbagging and domestic abuse claims are.

It comes down to a lot of things:
-Walker's personal baggage
-The state's fundamentals (inelasticity and demographic trends being brutal for the GOP)
-Georgia Democrats being among the competent state parties in the country
-Warnock being a good candidate
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Horus
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2021, 04:29:05 PM »

Tilt R/Lean D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2021, 07:01:39 PM »

These are Trafalgar polls, for the record.

NV/AZ being more vulnerable than NH/GA is something that should surprise nobody, of course (and the fact that for so long the conventional wisdom on Atlas and elsewhere was that they weren’t never made this any less true). However, the poll report actually shows the numbers as 44-41 in Nevada, not 46-42 (seems to be an NBC mistake). You might want to fix that.

As far as ratings go, I’d say NV is Lean R and GA Toss-up (and I agree with the people who think Warnock is slightly more vulnerable than Hassan).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2021, 07:42:27 PM »


NV isn't Tilt R it's within margin of error and Biden will be back to 50/45 bye Election day when COVID disappears in Spring
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2021, 07:44:01 PM »

These are Trafalgar polls, for the record.

NV/AZ being more vulnerable than NH/GA is something that should surprise nobody, of course (and the fact that for so long the conventional wisdom on Atlas and elsewhere was that they weren’t never made this any less true). However, th e poll report actually shows the numbers as 44-41 in Nevada, not 46-42 (seems to be an NBC mistake). You might want to fix that.

As far as ratings go, I’d say NV is Lean R and GA Toss-up (and I agree with the people who think Warnock is slightly more vulnerable than Hassan).


10 mnths out

NV and Az are Tilt R it's within the margin of error, you can't be serious
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: December 23, 2021, 11:36:57 AM »

Tbh, I'm actually starting to believe Warnock is safer than CCM. Same might apply to GA and NV for 2024.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2021, 12:00:22 PM »

Tbh, I'm actually starting to believe Warnock is safer than CCM. Same might apply to GA and NV for 2024.

Lol GA is a Runoff and NV isn't safe but NV has Laxalt winning the Gov in 2o18 and it was a D Year

GA has no Senate race in 24 and DeSantis would win GA if he was the Nominee and Jacky Rosen is up in NV in 24
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2021, 02:22:59 PM »

Tbh, I'm actually starting to believe Warnock is safer than CCM. Same might apply to GA and NV for 2024.

I think Cortez Masto is the most endangered Democratic Senator at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: December 23, 2021, 02:26:21 PM »
« Edited: December 23, 2021, 02:29:25 PM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

Tbh, I'm actually starting to believe Warnock is safer than CCM. Same might apply to GA and NV for 2024.

I think Cortez Masto is the most endangered Democratic Senator at this point.

Laxalt was winning last time in 2018 too against SISOLAK and so was Heller against Jacky Rosen

Lol it's within the margin of of 3/5 pts just like SUNUNU was leading 3)5 pts

If Hogan gets in, it will be within 3/5 pts too with Van Hollen and Biden won't be at 40 percent Approvals come Nov

When Biden, Obama and Abrams campaign with D's
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2021, 09:56:17 AM »

I can see Republicans gaining Nevada and I’m 50/50 on Arizona and Pennsylvania at this point.
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