2016 losers in 2022

[Roll Roons]

Let's say the following individuals, who all lost Senate races by less than 5 points in 2016, had won. How would their reelection prospects for next year be looking?

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Joe Heck (R-NV)
Jason Kander (D-MO)
Katie McGinty (D-PA)

And as a bonus, who would their likely opponents be?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Potentially decent
Probably over 50/50
Narrowly favored
In peril of losing
Probably over 50/50

[Drew]

I can see flips in both directions:

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)-Would be very vulnerable (also could be in a primary) after just scraping by in 2016.  I’d say Chris Pappas narrowly defeats her.

Russ Feingold (D-WI)-Definitely vulnerable, as he doesn’t have the benefit of running in a Blue Wave like Baldwin did.  I’d say he narrowly loses to Mike Gallagher or maybe even Kevin Nicholson.

Joe Heck (R-NV)-Another quite vulnerable incumbent.  He barely loses to Steven Horsford or Dina Titus.

Jason Kander (D-MO)-He’s finished a la McCaskill ‘18 or possibly Blanche ‘10.  Take your pick among Republicans, Greitens, Hartzler, Schmitt, etc.

Katie McGinty (D-PA)-Another tossupish race after she barely scraped by last time.  She barely loses to Mehmet Oz.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kelly Ayotte: Probably would face Chris Pappas in 2022, and would be very lucky that Biden is currently the incumbent. Would be a narrow favorite in the general, but she would be vulnerable in a primary.

Russ Feingold: Probably faces Mike Gallagher and gets flattened, losing by at least fifteen to twenty points.

Joe Heck: Probably gets the immediate rematch with Catherine Cortez Masto, and would be thanking his lucky stars that Biden is the incumbent. Would be a favorite in a general, but might be vulnerable in a primary.

Jason Kander: Probably gets Sarah Steelman or Eric Greitens. He'd be a heavy underdog, and would probably lose by at least thirty points. Might not run for reelection, and might already be serving in a Biden Cabinet by this point.

Katie McGinty: Would probably face a stronger opponent the current field in PA-Sen. I think she loses to Mike Turzai.

[Francisco]

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): Lean R.
Russ Feingold (D-WI): Tilt R.
Joe Heck (R-NV): Lean R.
Jason Kander (D-MO): Safe R.
Katie McGinty (D-PA): Toss-up.

[S019]

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)-Lean R, Chris Pappas
Russ Feingold (D-WI)-Lean R, Mike Gallagher
Joe Heck (R-NV)-Lean R, Susie Lee
Jason Kander (D-MO)-Safe R, Eric Schmitt
Katie McGinty (D-PA)-Tossup, Jeff Bartos

[OSR stands with Israel]

There is a chance Kander runs for President and he unlike Pete could have a win in Iowa actually springboard his campaign into having a chance to being the nominee

[😥]

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) - Lean R, Chris Pappas
Russ Feingold (D-WI) - Lean R (flip), Sean Duffy
Joe Heck (R-NV) - Likely R, someone from the state legislature
Jason Kander (D-MO) - Safe R, Vicky Hartzler
Katie McGinty (D-PA) - Tossup, Mehmet Oz

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

There is a chance Kander runs for President and he unlike Pete could have a win in Iowa actually springboard his campaign into having a chance to being the nominee

Losing his Senate race was not what caused Kander to not run for President; PTSD was.

[Xing]

I believe I made this thread a little while ago, but either way:

Ayotte: Lean R, since she'd probably vote against the GOP on a few key votes (though her vote would never actually be the deciding vote) and that would get her enough to win.

Feingold: Lean R. Much as having Feingold back in the Senate would've been a godsend, he would've faced long odds of winning in this environment, given how Wisconsin tends to go in midterms.

Heck: Lean R, for similar reasons as Ayotte, not to mention he's a better candidate than Laxalt.

Kander: Safe R, way too much to overcome.

McGinty: Tilt/Lean R, her position would only be slightly better than Feingold's, since there wouldn't be as obvious of a candidate, but the national environment would still make it very hard for her, moreso than most current Democratic incumbents (maybe minus Kelly.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Russ Feingold I'm this Environment would win but Kate McGinty was a disaster

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I believe I made this thread a little while ago, but either way:

Ayotte: Lean R, since she'd probably vote against the GOP on a few key votes (though her vote would never actually be the deciding vote) and that would get her enough to win.

Feingold: Lean R. Much as having Feingold back in the Senate would've been a godsend, he would've faced long odds of winning in this environment, given how Wisconsin tends to go in midterms.

Heck: Lean R, for similar reasons as Ayotte, not to mention he's a better candidate than Laxalt.

Kander: Safe R, way too much to overcome.

McGinty: Tilt/Lean R, her position would only be slightly better than Feingold's, since there wouldn't be as obvious of a candidate, but the national environment would still make it very hard for her, moreso than most current Democratic incumbents (maybe minus Kelly.)

Johnson praised an Insurrectionists and there is 12% Blk on WI that is gonna vote him out no matter whom the nomination goes to Tom Nelson, Barnes or Russ Feingold


Johnson won by only 150K votes he didn't win by 2M let's get real her

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Toss-up
Russ Feingold (D-WI), Lean R
Joe Heck (R-NV), Lean R
Jason Kander (D-MO), Dead in the water
Katie McGinty (D-PA), Lean D

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't know why you guys are saying Kander would lose by 30. At worst he does a bit better than Blanche Lincoln. I personally think he could very well be in a Jon Tester situation- votes relatively liberal but there is still a 20% gap in Republican approvals of Biden vs Kander. He won't win unless some absurd vote splitting occurs but I think the margin would be closer to 55-45.

[Mr. Smith]

Ayotte: Lean D, she'd face long odds...little different from McCaskill I'd say.

Feingold: Likely R. Powerful of a record he had, his campaigns were always hit-and-miss, he'd probably lose in a rematch'ception to RoJo.

Heck: Lean R

Kander: Safe R, way too much to overcome.

McGinty: Toss-Up

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Ayotte: Likely R. The NHGOP has a pretty strong case of #Resistance Brain and would probably run something out of the Gideon playbook instead of her votes against the Biden agenda.

Feingold: Probably Lean R. Guy's not a great campaigner.

Heck: Lean R as well? Idk.

Kander: Vibranium R.

McGinty: Tossup, I guess. Probably still leans Republican.

[MT Treasurer]

Ayotte: Toss-up/Tilt R -- I actually think people would be surprised by her vulnerability, much like they were in 2016 (she was considered considerably less vulnerable than Toomey and Johnson), and it’s very obvious that this would be the most vulnerable R-held seat by far even if PA/WI had stayed Republican in this scenario. While Ayotte almost certainly would have won without Aaron Doy running as an independent in 2016, it only would have been a very narrow win, and the state has been trending even further to the left since then (it actually voted to the right of the nation in 2016). Ayotte has never had much crossover appeal, and in a state like this, only a favorable environment could have saved her. The takes that Ayotte would be more likely to win than McGinty's/Feingold's R opponents would have been only slightly less amusing than the CW (in our timeline) that Hassan would be the most vulnerable Democrat this cycle (which is something many people unironically believed as recently as a month ago). People have a stubborn habit of overestimating the 'elasticity' of certain states, and NH is no exception to this (not unlike IA). Ayotte wins by 1-2.

Heck: (Strong) Lean R, verging on Likely R -- I don’t see much reason to believe Heck would be in serious trouble given the state's demographics (potential for R gains with working-class voters, non-college-educated voters, and Hispanics & no major suburban/college-educated D trends to offset this; D reliance on the demographic groups most likely to turn out in lower rates in a midterm), R trend (which shouldn’t be exaggerated but also not outright denied or written off as a "fluke"), general tendency to swing sharply to the right in midterm years under Democratic Presidents (even a 2008->2010-type swing would be more than enough to save Heck), and the overall national environment, but I also don’t buy that he’d be doing way better than Laxalt. I think CCM vs. Laxalt is Lean R, and like that race, this hypothetical race would probably not be too far from generic R vs. generic D. Heck wins by 4-6.

Feingold: Lean R -- would be in a very similar position as Evers, and the "career politician who has abandoned all his ideals/become a generic D partisan/gone Washington" playbook would have been more effective than people think. Feingold loses by 3-4.

McGinty: Lean R -- While it’s true that people underestimated her in 2016 (although that had just as much to do with Toomey being wildly overestimated), she’s hardly more formidable than generic D, and it’s hard to see her cultivating much crossover appeal during her first term. In a (strongly) R-leaning year, I would not expect generic D to win reelection in today's PA. McGinty loses by 3-4.

Kander: Safe R -- Maybe this wouldn’t be a complete blowout (I’m thinking 9-11 points), but he would definitely be gone in 2022, even if Roy Blunt himself somehow ran for the seat and won the R nomination. Especially given the level of national attention he likely would have attracted in this alternate universe, he might have just opted against a futile reelection bid, as Galloway did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasure thinks Johnson and Oz are Juggernaut and they're not they only won  when Hillary UNDERPERFORMED in the state all Biden has to do is hit 50% on Election day and we win a 51(48 map with GA going to a Runoff the House is Lean R but who k is with Cali Redistricting 4/7sts

[toilet towl]

Let's say the following individuals, who all lost Senate races by less than 5 points in 2016, had won. How would their reelection prospects for next year be looking?

Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Joe Heck (R-NV)
Jason Kander (D-MO)
Katie McGinty (D-PA)

And as a bonus, who would their likely opponents be?

Now with hindsight, here's how I think it would have turned out.
Kelly Ayotte would have been likely been challenged by Chris Pappas. Not sure how it would have turned out. On one hand, Ayotte could have probably positioned herself as moderate, but abortion could have sunk her.

Feingold would have easily won against Kevin Nicholson, though a more standard choice like Mike Gallagher could defeat him.

Heck probably wins. He was a nevertrumper in 2016 so it would be hard to frame him as some Trump loyalist like CCM did with Laxalt. As for the Dem, maybe Susie Lee or Steven Horsford? I think either would have lost.

Kander definitely loses to Eric Schmitt.

McGinty vs Dr Oz. would be an interesting one. My guess is she just barely squeaks it out.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Only Kander would have lost.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ayotte would be the underdog, but I'm not sure who her opponent would be. Maybe Chris Pappas?

Feingold would be narrowly favored, but his chances would depend on who Wisconsin Republicans nominated. I'd lean towards him winning again.

Heck wouldn't have made it out of the Republican Primary if he runs again. Either he retires, or a MAGA Republican beats him the Primary.

Kander would be DOA (and given his issues with depression, I don't even think he finishes his term).

McGinty would be a narrow favorite, but her chances depend on who Republicans nominate.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Ayotte - Ultimately on track for a narrow lose, probably a slight lead in polls do to name rec
Feingold - toss up
Heck - see Ayotte, plus likely facing a primary
Kander - DOA
McGinty - fairly safe