Could the new lines in New Mexico backfire on democrats?
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Author Topic: Could the new lines in New Mexico backfire on democrats?  (Read 575 times)
Woody
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« on: December 13, 2021, 02:36:06 PM »
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2021, 03:36:31 PM »
In 2022 I expect Herrell to win but I think the other two survive unless it's a total disaster year
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2021, 03:40:58 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on December 13, 2021, 03:36:31 PM
In 2022 I expect Herrell to win but I think the other two survive unless it's a total disaster year

It looks like we're headed for a total disaster year.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2021, 04:42:55 PM »
No, not really. A "backfire" would require that Democrats win less than they would be expected to win under a fair map, so they'd have to be winning an average of either zero or one seats over the course of the decade. I do not think anyone seriously believes that any district other than NM-02 is holdable for the Republicans long-term unless the state shifts hard right, so there's your answer.
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TML
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2021, 05:01:08 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on December 13, 2021, 04:42:55 PM
No, not really. A "backfire" would require that Democrats win less than they would be expected to win under a fair map, so they'd have to be winning an average of either zero or one seats over the course of the decade. I do not think anyone seriously believes that any district other than NM-02 is holdable for the Republicans long-term unless the state shifts hard right, so there's your answer.

In this case, I think the OP's premise is his apparent belief that Republicans will soon achieve Bush '04-levels of support among Hispanics.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2021, 05:09:31 PM »
Maybe in 2022 specifically, but outside of Republican wave years, no.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2021, 03:45:56 AM »
Will not likely fail in 2022, looks very unlikely to fail afterwards. But you can't be 100% sure.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2021, 10:06:04 AM »
NM is a reliable D state
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