Will marijuana become more or less salient in future Presidential elections?

[darklordoftech]

What do you think?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Probably less, given that 1) the parties have become less polarized on 420 than during Obama's time, and 2) voter groups that are relatively anti-420 seem to favor Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'll probably follow a trajectory similar to same-sex marriage. Although it obviously won't ever be legalized nationwide immediately via court order (even if the federal ban is repealed that would still leave state laws intact) but after that point and after banks are now able to process transactions for marijuana businesses and interstate commerce of it is possible, even really conservative states are going to not consider it worth it keep missing out on all the tax revenue anymore. Then I suspect state legalization patterns will follow like gambling was decades ago, when it was only legal in Nevada and New Jersey and is now in 48/50 states. But even then it'll be only a state issue.

[darklordoftech]

It'll probably follow a trajectory similar to same-sex marriage. Although it obviously won't ever be legalized nationwide immediately via court order (even if the federal ban is repealed that would still leave state laws intact) but after that point and after banks are now able to process transactions for marijuana businesses and interstate commerce of it is possible

How will the federal ban ever be repealed without a SCOTUS ruling? Neither party’s base is willing to demand it, Democrats seem to be locked out of the Senate, and Democrats seem to view any criticism of Biden as racist and misogynist.

[Del Tachi]

Increasing legal and social acceptance of marijuana is going to precipitate an eventual public health/"save the children" response by the 2040s/2050s.  It is on a similar trajectory as smoking. 

[Barack Oganja]

Definitely less, it's either legal for recreational/medical use in most states and it's not hard to get a medical card.

[darklordoftech]

Definitely less, it's either legal for recreational/medical use in most states and it's not hard to get a medical card.

I’ve never seen marijuana available anywhere nor do I see people on tv or streaming websites using it.

[Vosem]

I can see the War on Drugs more broadly becoming more salient as states move to end it entirely, with Oregon currently at the forefront here, but I think 'marijuana' as an issue in and of itself is close to its expiration date.

Increasing legal and social acceptance of marijuana is going to precipitate an eventual public health/"save the children" response by the 2040s/2050s.  It is on a similar trajectory as smoking. 

I wonder to what extent these are even possible in the current media environment, and while the 2040s/'50s are hard to predict it seems like media splintering is probably likely to continue rather than reverse. I wonder if the anti-smoking campaign wasn't the last successful large-scale public health campaign aimed at changing individual habits that we'll see for a long time.