urutzizu
Jr. Member
Posts: 587
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2021, 05:35:01 PM » |
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In practice, Dutertes rhetoric had little impact on actual US-Philippines relations or a real alignment with China, and if anything the Philippines is actually moving back towards trending to even closer alignment with the US in the last two years or so.
For instance In terms of the scrapping the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) which Duterte promised, the withdrawal was first suspended, than reversed entirely this year, joint military exercises are being expanded, the Philippines was the only ASEAN member publicly support AUKUS (which many South East Asian countries expressed major concerns about, such as Malaysia and Indonesia; even close US-allies such as South Korea did not express support), etc. I think it can be mostly attributed to the fact that China did not adapt it's behaviour in the SCS, against the Duterte admins. hopes, but also other factors.
So I expect all major Presidential Candidates will broadly continue in that direction in some form of another, as China's actions will not change, more likely intensify in that regard. What is interesting though, is that, insofar as you can sort Filipino politics by Ideology (which is limited) it is now the progressive candidates (Leni Robredo) that adapt the most hawkish tones regarding China and want more US troops/influence in the region, whilst it is the right-wing candidates (especially Marcos) that are relatively the most pro-china. I think that will soon become a dynamic in other countries as well. In terms of Pacquiao and Moreno, it seems that they fall somewhere in the middle there with Pacquiao perhaps a bit more on the china side than Moreno. But again, I doubt that there will be major practical differences with any candidate.
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