MN-GOV: Walz +11- Walz +17

[LiberalDem19]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1468736136721977348

Walz 47, Gazelka 34

Walz 47, Benson 35

Walz 48, Jensen 36

[neostassenite31]

Full crosstabs:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21150756-kstp-surveyusa-poll-approval-rating-120721?responsive=1&title=1

Dec. 02-06, 2021
MoE: 5.1%
506 LV

Walz approval:
55% approve (actually identical to the number from Morning Consult's 50 state governor approval poll)
41% disapprove
3% not sure

Biden approval:
48% approve
48% disapprove
4% not sure

(Approval numbers are from the pre-LV screened 675 A sample, so Biden is probably underwater)

Some fun facts about this sample:
Recalled 2020 presidential vote: 49% Biden - 41% Trump
Recalled 2018 gubernatorial vote: 49% Walz - 24% Johnson - 27% Don't recall / Didn't vote
Party ID: 38% Democrat - 31% Republican (D+7)

[neostassenite31]

While I always believed that Walz will remain competitive and could prevail regardless of the national environment, I do not believe that he will outperform his 11-point margin in 2018. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel that if the Republicans couldn't win Minnesota in 2010, 2014, or 2016, it's not going to happen in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

Not saying it's completely out of the question, but the GOP has much better targets than this one.

[Minnesota Mike]

While I always believed that Walz will remain competitive and could prevail regardless of the national environment, I do not believe that he will outperform his 11-point margin in 2018.  

Why not? His prospective opponents are 3rd tier at best, he has been pretty popular throughout his term and MN is a left leaning state. There is more to prognosticating races than looking at one historic national data point (it's a presidential midterm, big wave for the out party guaranteed).

[2016]

Not saying it's completely out of the question, but the GOP has much better targets than this one.

Could they snatch some Congressional Seats? Bidens JA doesn't look excatly stellar.

[Senator Incitatus]

I think Walz will hang on. Minnesota remains stubborn for Republicans and he's not blundered much.

[2016]

While I always believed that Walz will remain competitive and could prevail regardless of the national environment, I do not believe that he will outperform his 11-point margin in 2018. 

Why not? His prospective opponents are 3rd tier at best, he has been pretty popular throughout his term and MN is a left leaning state. There is more to prognosticating races than looking at one historic national data point.

I can't see Walz outperforming a R+ 3-5 National Electorate next year. He'll win but not by 11 Points.

[Minnesota Mike]

While I always believed that Walz will remain competitive and could prevail regardless of the national environment, I do not believe that he will outperform his 11-point margin in 2018. 

Why not? His prospective opponents are 3rd tier at best, he has been pretty popular throughout his term and MN is a left leaning state. There is more to prognosticating races than looking at one historic national data point.

I can't see Walz outperforming a R+ 3-5 National Electorate next year. He'll win but not by 11 Points.

But will the national electorate be R+ 3-5?  I have my doubts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually pretty weak for Republicans, you'd think they could at least break 40% with all of Walz's haters, like the people still blaming him for non-existent COVID restrictions. All of those expired months ago yet online Republicans still seem to believe there's a lockdown.

Not saying it's completely out of the question, but the GOP has much better targets than this one.

Could they snatch some Congressional Seats? Bidens JA doesn't look excatly stellar.

The only competitive seat is Angie Craig in MN-02 and if that gets shores up I'm redistricting even that might be off the table.

[MT Treasurer]

lol sure

[Gracile]

Walz may have an advantage, but there is no way he is going to win by around (or more than) what he got in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walz isn't winning by 11 but 5

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reminder that Gazelka sent his daughter to conversion therapy if you're wondering how bad of a candidate he is

[Skill and Chance]

OK, wow, maybe the college+ trend will make MN diverge radically from the rest of the Midwest after all?

[LiberalDem19]

OK, wow, maybe the college+ trend will make MN diverge radically from the rest of the Midwest after all?

I think it might make sense. Milwaukee behaves more like the rust belt whereas the Twin Cities culturally are more similar to Denver, Seattle or Portland. Madison despite its growth is still less than 15% of the state. Also the DFL is gonna focus on Rochester, Mankato, Moorhead and Duluth which I don’t think there’s that combination in WI

[President Johnson]

Too many undecideds.

I don't think this will be a double digit race. Lean Democratic.

[Skunk]

It'll be closer but I don't think he'll lose in the end. Much more worried about Ellison than Walz.

[Hollywood]

Polls like this one are the very reason I love analyzing the data.  I think this is a bad poll for Democrats given that Republicans should have much greater party strength, as well as an advantage with Independents that was clearly demonstrated in NJ and VA, in addition to many other polls.  Clearly, Republican and Conservative Independents amount to around 16-18% of the undecided voters, and it’s due to the fact that the Republicans have no nominee to rally around yet.  There’s no name recognition among the Republican Primary candidates, as 50% of voters have no clue whose running while everyone knows the Democrat candidate.    This is a poll with Biden voters equating to 50% of the electorate while Trump voters are down to 41% due to a 10% increase in first-time voters, but that should equate to a 46-40% lead among Biden voters – 10-15% of which are probably not voting and another 17% that aren’t supporting the Democrat candidate.   Republicans have a 92-75% lead among likely/probably voters, and a 15-point lead among respondents certain to vote.   There clearly isn’t a good sample of older voters given the Republicans are unexplainably losing among older voters, but lead among 18-34 year-olds that continues a trend of improving youth support for the GOP.  The poll goes off the rails with female (54/52-28/32% in favor of Democrats) and Independents (38-27%).  What?  Did they not reference the national and state trends like NJ and VA?   Obviously not given the polling errs by treating a GOP friendly 2022 election like it’s a bigger blue wave than 2018, and the polling methodology they use with smartphones and internet surveys provides gross over-estimates of Democrat voters.  Republicans don’t usually answer BS texts and e-mails during the work day, unless they’re stay-at-home mothers, invalids or unemployed neck beards.   Survey USA indicates that they are looking for younger male and older female voters, which explains why Republicans win the younger age group while getting trounced by everyone over 35.   They literally give liberals more voter share than moderates or Republicans even though those groups routinely hold 8-16% of total voter demographics. 
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=ef3b6aa5-48dc-4dbc-a34a-c0d3600ac2c6&pt=2&d=0

The big red flag for Democrats is that they are using a model that should indicate a bigger blue wave than 2018, but are underperforming in their key demographics like young and female voters and over-performing with rural, male and high school educated voters.  If GOP, Trump, and Conservative voters came off the fence, Republicans would be down by the same amount they were in 2020 – six to seven points.  When Independents recognize the name of the Republican candidate, the margin could fall to 2-4 points given trends in other state polls and election results. 

At the moment, I've decided to discount internet polls.  They are just as useful as the Rasmussen and Gallup polls in identifying trends in level of support for Democrats as opposed to Republicans, but they are pretty useless for gauging election results unless you really read into the data.   

[LiberalDem19]

Polls like this one are the very reason I love analyzing the data.  I think this is a bad poll for Democrats given that Republicans should have much greater party strength, as well as an advantage with Independents that was clearly demonstrated in NJ and VA, in addition to many other polls.  Clearly, Republican and Conservative Independents amount to around 16-18% of the undecided voters, and it’s due to the fact that the Republicans have no nominee to rally around yet.  There’s no name recognition among the Republican Primary candidates, as 50% of voters have no clue whose running while everyone knows the Democrat candidate.    This is a poll with Biden voters equating to 50% of the electorate while Trump voters are down to 41% due to a 10% increase in first-time voters, but that should equate to a 46-40% lead among Biden voters – 10-15% of which are probably not voting and another 17% that aren’t supporting the Democrat candidate.   Republicans have a 92-75% lead among likely/probably voters, and a 15-point lead among respondents certain to vote.   There clearly isn’t a good sample of older voters given the Republicans are unexplainably losing among older voters, but lead among 18-34 year-olds that continues a trend of improving youth support for the GOP.  The poll goes off the rails with female (54/52-28/32% in favor of Democrats) and Independents (38-27%).  What?  Did they not reference the national and state trends like NJ and VA?   Obviously not given the polling errs by treating a GOP friendly 2022 election like it’s a bigger blue wave than 2018, and the polling methodology they use with smartphones and internet surveys provides gross over-estimates of Democrat voters.  Republicans don’t usually answer BS texts and e-mails during the work day, unless they’re stay-at-home mothers, invalids or unemployed neck beards.   Survey USA indicates that they are looking for younger male and older female voters, which explains why Republicans win the younger age group while getting trounced by everyone over 35.   They literally give liberals more voter share than moderates or Republicans even though those groups routinely hold 8-16% of total voter demographics. 
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=ef3b6aa5-48dc-4dbc-a34a-c0d3600ac2c6&pt=2&d=0

The big red flag for Democrats is that they are using a model that should indicate a bigger blue wave than 2018, but are underperforming in their key demographics like young and female voters and over-performing with rural, male and high school educated voters.  If GOP, Trump, and Conservative voters came off the fence, Republicans would be down by the same amount they were in 2020 – six to seven points.  When Independents recognize the name of the Republican candidate, the margin could fall to 2-4 points given trends in other state polls and election results. 

At the moment, I've decided to discount internet polls.  They are just as useful as the Rasmussen and Gallup polls in identifying trends in level of support for Democrats as opposed to Republicans, but they are pretty useless for gauging election results unless you really read into the data.   

I think it’ll be closer than this but SUSA/KSTP polls are usually pretty on the nose in Minnesota, so this isn’t just some internet poll. They actually underestimated Walz and Biden in 18/20. And also remember Walz is a stronger than usual candidate in rural areas. He’ll lose Greater MN but by 10-15 points instead of 20 like Biden did

[Hollywood]

Polls like this one are the very reason I love analyzing the data.  I think this is a bad poll for Democrats given that Republicans should have much greater party strength, as well as an advantage with Independents that was clearly demonstrated in NJ and VA, in addition to many other polls.  Clearly, Republican and Conservative Independents amount to around 16-18% of the undecided voters, and it’s due to the fact that the Republicans have no nominee to rally around yet.  There’s no name recognition among the Republican Primary candidates, as 50% of voters have no clue whose running while everyone knows the Democrat candidate.    This is a poll with Biden voters equating to 50% of the electorate while Trump voters are down to 41% due to a 10% increase in first-time voters, but that should equate to a 46-40% lead among Biden voters – 10-15% of which are probably not voting and another 17% that aren’t supporting the Democrat candidate.   Republicans have a 92-75% lead among likely/probably voters, and a 15-point lead among respondents certain to vote.   There clearly isn’t a good sample of older voters given the Republicans are unexplainably losing among older voters, but lead among 18-34 year-olds that continues a trend of improving youth support for the GOP.  The poll goes off the rails with female (54/52-28/32% in favor of Democrats) and Independents (38-27%).  What?  Did they not reference the national and state trends like NJ and VA?   Obviously not given the polling errs by treating a GOP friendly 2022 election like it’s a bigger blue wave than 2018, and the polling methodology they use with smartphones and internet surveys provides gross over-estimates of Democrat voters.  Republicans don’t usually answer BS texts and e-mails during the work day, unless they’re stay-at-home mothers, invalids or unemployed neck beards.   Survey USA indicates that they are looking for younger male and older female voters, which explains why Republicans win the younger age group while getting trounced by everyone over 35.   They literally give liberals more voter share than moderates or Republicans even though those groups routinely hold 8-16% of total voter demographics. 
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=ef3b6aa5-48dc-4dbc-a34a-c0d3600ac2c6&pt=2&d=0

The big red flag for Democrats is that they are using a model that should indicate a bigger blue wave than 2018, but are underperforming in their key demographics like young and female voters and over-performing with rural, male and high school educated voters.  If GOP, Trump, and Conservative voters came off the fence, Republicans would be down by the same amount they were in 2020 – six to seven points.  When Independents recognize the name of the Republican candidate, the margin could fall to 2-4 points given trends in other state polls and election results. 

At the moment, I've decided to discount internet polls.  They are just as useful as the Rasmussen and Gallup polls in identifying trends in level of support for Democrats as opposed to Republicans, but they are pretty useless for gauging election results unless you really read into the data.   

I think it’ll be closer than this but SUSA/KSTP polls are usually pretty on the nose in Minnesota, so this isn’t just some internet poll. They actually underestimated Walz and Biden in 18/20. And also remember Walz is a stronger than usual candidate in rural areas. He’ll lose Greater MN but by 10-15 points instead of 20 like Biden did

I understand your argument, but I have other reasons for not trusting this poll.  Sure they did good in some of the 2018 and 2020 MN elections, but they weren't using a cherry-picked sample from a a company that's part of an international conglomerate funded by the Chinese and Saudis, Lucid Holdings, Inc.  https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ef3b6aa5-48dc-4dbc-a34a-c0d3600ac2c6

That was yet another red flag that popped into my head as I was reading.  I looked at past Survey USA polling documents, and they usually conduct interviews before narrowing down likely voters.  They didn't do this with the recent MN poll.  https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cf708ecc-dd5c-40c6-8d4e-df81085c89b9

Lucid Holdings, Inc. was organized as a private company in order to skirt SEC reporting guidelines, and it consistently initiates financial rounds in election years. https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/52562-98#funding

Spectrum Equity and Schoenfield are big investors in Lucid Holdings, Inc (Digital Media, Marketing) and Lucid Motors (Energy, EV).  Most privately held institutions and funds are used to finance Lucid Holdings, Inc., while big time public companies and large institutions are investing in publicly-traded LCID.  These venture capitalists, funds and conglomerates have an interest in manipulating political perspectives.  Lucid Motors is in trouble for using a privately-held LLC in Florida to make false statements to investors, and they did this with online multi-media marketing.  You know... when there's like hundreds of people on investor forums posting rocket ships to the moon so dopes will buy the stock. 

IDK... I just don't trust this particular poll. 

[Schiff for Senate]

Question me if you want, but there's nothing to see here. Just because it's next to WI and IA and close to MI doesn't mean MN is like them. It's much bluer than IA and not insignificantly bluer than WI and MI (especially WI). Also it trended more to the left than either state (WI trended rightward) in 2020. So if you ask me - and these polls reinforce that - this race is going blue and there's not much to see. I'd actually call MN the Democratic equivalent of IA - a state that some still misguidedly consider competitive, but which is really pretty tough for the other party to actually win. If I controlled funding for races by Democrats, I'd pull funding from MN; it's unnecessary (for now).

[beesley]

CentristRepublican is right. By and large, Minnesota is a safe D state.

[Adam Griffin]

It's fairly absurd how well Democratic Governors are holding up in polling relative to the national climate. Maybe that's because it will end up being irrelevant as we've seen before...but the fact that people like Walz - along with Governors like JBE, Beshear and Kelly - aren't just above water but have absolute majority approvals is surely not in line with the national climate. If there does remain some semblance of a divide between national climate and gubernatorial support in 2022, then I could see somebody like Walz (a Democratic incumbent in a predominantly-Democratic state) winning by 10 points even if the GCB for MN is in the low single digits.