October SUSA Governor Approval Ratings

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Joe: Rutgers University

Saxton will win, and unlike the Santorum folks who go against the numbers, Oregon's two best polling outfits (Moore and Riley) have Saxton taking the prize. 

I'm sorry, but why are you saying Riley is a good pollster?  Look at his 2004 numbers.  They were probably the worst pollster in the country.

Did you read my post?  I said their 2004 cycle predictions were poorly done.  That said, their history still makes them #2 in Oregon after Bob Moore.

[Alcon]

Can you cite your claim that Moore and Riley are historically so good?

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Can you cite your claim that Moore and Riley are historically so good?

Get some political experience in Oregon, anybody will tell you Moore is THE man, and Riley is still respected.  Research some blogs on Oregon politics, or call up some political science departments at the major Universities in the state.  I'm not going to go digging for links on a simple fact of Oregon politics.

Take it or leave it.  I could really care less. 

[Conan]

Survey USA polls, governor and senate always have the numbers wrong anyway. All other polls about these have such different numbers and a lot more undecideds. Like in NJ....

10/6/06
FDU Public Mind Poll
Gov. Jon Corzine
Approve - 56%
Disapprove - 28%

Surprising that you point out one poll for NJ and it happens to have Corzine ahead by an insane amount...

Surprising that I couldnt find another poll with his approvals from this month you mean? This was the only one out there to compare with.

Nevermind, if youll take this poll from a week earlier then that:

Rutgers-Eagleton
Sep 28 2006
Corzine
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 31%

Who the hell is Rutgers-Eagleton?  Give reasons why they're any more credible than SurveyUSA.

A public ivy university. Survey USA has crappy polls and every one knows it. In the survey usa how is almost everyone decided. Not many people track or know or could tell.

[Joe Republic]

Taft's, finally, off the bottom

Dave

Taft was doing better than Murkowski in last month's poll too.

[Joe Republic]

A public ivy university. Survey USA has crappy polls and every one knows it. In the survey usa how is almost everyone decided. Not many people track or know or could tell.

The first two sentences made sense, but I would strongly disagree with the second.  Anybody with any kind of knowledge on polling would disagree with your unfounded statement too.  The last two sentences made no sense at all, so I can't comment on them.

Honestly, some people have severe literacy issues around here.

[Joe Republic]

Reagan Raider:

Saxton will win

Are you confident enough of that that you would put money on it?

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Reagan Raider:

Saxton will win

Are you confident enough of that that you would put money on it?

I'm not the betting type.  I really don't see the point to your comment beyond trying to seem "cool" on an online forum.  I also think comments like that are bad for any sort of intellectually honest discourse on an internet forum. 

If you're asking if I am certain beyond any doubt that Saxton will win, my answer would of course be a negative.  My strong belief in Saxton's victory is not based on untold future events which could change the course of the election cycle in Oregon, but rather the trends as I have seen them thus far bolstered by positive polling.

[Joe Republic]

I'm not the betting type.  I really don't see the point to your comment beyond trying to seem "cool" on an online forum.

I'm not the betting type either, and I was not asking you for one.  It was a purely hypothetical question.  Your attitude was unnecessary.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Then we'll just have to see about that in two weeks' time.  You may well be right in the end, but it's unlikely.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

I'm not the betting type.  I really don't see the point to your comment beyond trying to seem "cool" on an online forum.

I'm not the betting type either, and I was not asking you for one.  It was a purely hypothetical question.  Your attitude was unnecessary.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Then we'll just have to see about that in two weeks' time.  You may well be right in the end, but it's unlikely.

It seems we have something in common, as I think your attitude was unnecessary and that you are wrong on your Oregon prediction. 

Like you said, we'll find out in a little over two weeks.

[HardRCafé]

I think it's fifty-fifty.

[Alcon]

Can you cite your claim that Moore and Riley are historically so good?

Get some political experience in Oregon, anybody will tell you Moore is THE man, and Riley is still respected.  Research some blogs on Oregon politics, or call up some political science departments at the major Universities in the state.  I'm not going to go digging for links on a simple fact of Oregon politics.

Take it or leave it.  I could really care less. 

If this fact is so universal, why can I find no mentions on the Internet of this?

Riley screwed up 2000 and 2004 big time; he was good in 2002.  That's not a record worth trusting.  What magical source manages to spin Riley's 2000 and 2004 screw-ups as being a good pollster?

Riley is also Saxton's pollster.  Major issues there.

I'm glad to know that you could care less.  Until you can't care less, please back up what you say with facts or don't bother saying them.  I'm not adverse to the idea of being wrong; I'm adverse to the idea of you telling me to call a political scientist in Oregon, obviously not someone who I'd have on speed dial.

[SPQR]

Funny how Alaska is still strong GOP with such a loved governor...

[RJ]

Funny how Alaska is still strong GOP with such a loved governor...

...and Michigan's Jennifer Grandholm has a -19% approval and she's still beating Devos. People in Michigan must really not like him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Funny how Alaska is still strong GOP with such a loved governor...

He lost the primary.

[adam]

Perry is at 54% disapproval! Texans are finally seeing the light.

[MasterJedi]

And even though Doyle is disapproved of he'll win re-election though he's done nothing.

[Joe Republic]

And even though Doyle is disapproved of he'll win re-election though he's done nothing.

I guess that says a lot about the quality of Mark Green's candidacy, doesn't it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also says a lot about Topinka, DeVos and Saxton.

[Joe Republic]

Indeed.

[Rob]

Like you said, we'll find out in a little over two weeks.

The voters are going to give Governor Kulongoski a second term. He's doing a heck of a job.

[Joe Republic]

Like you said, we'll find out in a little over two weeks.

The voters are going to give Governor Kulongoski a second term. He's doing a heck of a job.

I don't disagree with your first sentence, but were you mimicking Bush's appraisal of Michael Brown in your second sentence?  After all, Kulongoski is currently the seventh most unpopular governor in the nation, if this poll is to be believed.

[Rob]

Yes, that was tongue-in-cheek hackery.

I'm no fan of Kulongoski, but I held my nose and voted for him. To be honest, I almost went with Keating.

[Eraserhead]

What is with the Arnold numbers