Who is going to write the opinion to explicitly overrule Roe?

[David Hume]

It's clear from the arguments today that the MS abortion law will be upheld. It's not entirely clear yet whether SC will explicitly say they overruled Roe/Casey.

There will be a vote about whether to strike down the MS law, which will be 6:3, with Roberts assigning the authorship. I assume he will assign to himself, and try to make some middle ground.

I am not sure if there will be a second vote to explicitly overrule Roe. If so, the vote is likely to be 5:4, with Thomas assigning the authorship. He has basically three choice. He may assign it to himself, since he has not written any landmark opinion. He may assign it to Barrett and Kavanaugh, hoping them to use originalism -- that the Constitution did not mention, and the public meaning at that time did not include abortion right. It's important to note that defending his opinion of Roe played a huge role in driving the left shift of Blackmun. Thomas may prefer a similar effect on Kavanaugh and Barrett.

Or, Roberts vote with majority again just to assign opinion, like CJ Burger used to do. I am not sure how much he can achieve this time.

[Person Man]

6 uphold MS law

4- will overturn Roe (Alito, Barret, Kavanaugh, Thomas)
3- might want to find a way to keep Roe going  (Roberts, Gorsuch, Kagan (but not to uphold))

[I’m not Stu]

Kavanaugh will write the opinion, which will be assigned by Thomas. The most junior justice won’t write a landmark decision. Roberts will be completely alone with a solo opinion.

[David Hume]

6 uphold MS law

4- will overturn Roe (Alito, Barret, Kavanaugh, Thomas)
3- might want to find a way to keep Roe going  (Roberts, Gorsuch, Kagan (but not to uphold))

Gorsuch is more likely than Kavanaugh to overrule Roe.

[Skill and Chance]

6 uphold MS law

4- will overturn Roe (Alito, Barret, Kavanaugh, Thomas)
3- might want to find a way to keep Roe going  (Roberts, Gorsuch, Kagan (but not to uphold))

Gorsuch is more likely than Kavanaugh to overrule Roe.

From the oral argument, he sounded more interested in Roberts' viability analysis than any of the other conservatives. 

[NewYorkExpress]

6-3 to overturn Roe, with Roberts assigning it to himself (simply so fetal personhood doesn't end up in the opinion).

[progressive85]

The only woman in the majority should write it and then it get out to the American people and then they can go from there.  It's either her or the Chief Justice I think.

[lfromnj]

Definitely Thomas if Roberts isn't in the majority.

Yeah thats the factor, Roberts might consider giving it to Barret for optical reasons but Thomas gives 0 F's about optics.

[MarkD]

IF it happens, and I'm not sure yet whether it will, I certainly think it would be most appropriate for Chief Justice Roberts himself to write it. Just like Earl Warren himself wrote Brown v. Board of Education, which of course overruled Plessy - everyone on the Court knew it was a very momentous occasion, putting an end to all de jure segregation - which is why one of the most important decisions of all should be written by the Chief Justice. Likewise, today, if the Court decides to overturn Roe (and Casey), it will be such an important and momentous occasion that the most appropriate person to write it will be ........ Da Chief!

[lfromnj]

IF it happens, and I'm not sure yet whether it will, I certainly think it would be most appropriate for Chief Justice Roberts himself to write it. Just like Earl Warren himself wrote Brown v. Board of Education[/], which of course overruled Plessy - everyone on the Court knew it was a very momentous occasion, putting an end to all de jure segregation - which is why one of the most important decisions of all should be written by the Chief Justice. Likewise, today, if the Court decides to overturn Roe (and Casey), it will be such an important and momentous occasion that the most appropriate person to write it will be ........ Da Chief!

Well the chief still has to agree with the decision or the other 5 will likely overrule him.

[MarkD]

IF it happens, and I'm not sure yet whether it will, I certainly think it would be most appropriate for Chief Justice Roberts himself to write it. Just like Earl Warren himself wrote Brown v. Board of Education, which of course overruled Plessy - everyone on the Court knew it was a very momentous occasion, putting an end to all de jure segregation - which is why one of the most important decisions of all should be written by the Chief Justice. Likewise, today, if the Court decides to overturn Roe (and Casey), it will be such an important and momentous occasion that the most appropriate person to write it will be ........ Da Chief!

Well the chief still has to agree with the decision or the other 5 will likely overrule him.

(I corrected one minor error in my previous post.)

I feel pretty confident that if, during the Supreme Court conference when they deliberate the Dobbs case, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett indicate they will uphold the Mississippi law and they will overturn Roe because it was wrongly decided, Roberts will say - perhaps out loud or maybe just inside his own head - I'll make it 6 to 3, because this case is too important to leave it at just 5 to 4, and an opinion like this shouldn't be written by an Associate Justice. Roe was at least the second most important decision that the SCOTUS rendered in the 20th Century, and overturning it is going to be extremely unpopular with tens of millions of Americans. This is such a monumentally important event that only the Chief should write this.

[I’m not Stu]

I believe Roberts will be alone in the minority. Roberts doesn’t choose who gets to write it.

[Vosem]

I don't think it's going to be explicitly overruled in the immediate future, since the case currently before the Court doesn't require it and most conservative commentary is very skeptical of this case overturning Roe.

That said, if it were to happen, it would be Barrett. It would have to be written from a woman's perspective. (I wonder, actually, if a substantial part of the reason affirmative action has never been prohibited is that it would have to be done in an opinion written by Thomas, but Thomas is really insistent on going much further than most of the right wing of the Court is willing to go.)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If the court overturns Roe, I think it will be Thomas. The most junior member of the Supreme Court is not going to write a landmark decision. However, they could also still go down the "This isn't in violation of Roe or Casey" route. If they decide to uphold Roe and Casey while simultaneously allowing the Mississippi law (a strong possibility) to stand, then there's an outside chance of her writing the opinion.

[politicallefty]

I'm still undecided as to whether they're going to overrule Roe or gut it so as to uphold the Mississippi law. Either way, I see virtually no way the law is going to be struck down.

If Roe isn't overruled, Roberts will almost certainly write the controlling opinion. If he gets Barrett to join him in not overruling Roe, it's conceivable they both write and join each other's opinion.

I don't think Roberts will vote to overrule Roe, so if it is overruled, Thomas will assign the opinion. I have a hard time envisioning him writing such a landmark opinion for two reasons that are rather entwined: he has not authored a landmark decision in his 30+ years on the Court and his views are still quite idiosyncratic and outside the mainstream of the Court. I don't know if he can hold a majority together with his viewpoints and overall style. Justice Scalia he is not. But even if Scalia were on the Court instead of Gorsuch, I'd have a hard time seeing even him write the majority opinion overruling Roe and he's one of the best writers in recent memory. I could make the case for any Justice writing based on a number of rationales, but to be honest, I'm really not sure. I think Gorsuch is least likely to write a majority opinion, with Alito after that (considering the latter wouldn't look too different from Thomas himself).

[David Hume]

Bump this as I am curious why 3 voted Alito here.